chpettit19

I'd be awfully shocked if the Twins were able to pry away the best prospect in baseball. I think Luis Pena, Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara, or Jett Williams are the far more likely options as best player available from the Brewers. And Pena may be "untouchable" as well.

Why would a team trading for Joe Ryan give up an established mid-rotation MLB pitcher? They're trading for Joe to make, and win in, the playoffs. They're not trading an established rotation piece to do that. It'd be a nonstarter and is a completely unrealistic ask.

Yeah, I'm just not a believer in Jeffers and the QO. I want no part of paying him $23 million. If they don't trade him and Ryan before the deadline, I'm going to be pretty disappointed and not impressed with Tom's start.

I'm really not worried at all what it'd say about the franchise long-term. But I also don't think they're trading Bell or Larnach or anyone like that. Because I don't think you can actually get anything for them. Trading Ryan and Jeffers would actually make me more hopeful about the future (depending on the return). What concerns me more is not selling at all. Especially Jeffers. That'd make it really hard to convince me that this Pohlad isn't just as terrible at being an owner as the rest.

Totally get it. I just don't think they've been a franchise that always sells. They sold last year. Their problem is they are either a sell or do nothing franchise. They did a mini sell to get Ryan in the first place. But outside that, they really haven't done anything like a true selling team would do outside of last year. My argument would be that they should've finished that job during the offseason instead of playing the middle ground of trying to win now and rebuild when their chances of winning now are miniscule.

The "what ifs" absolutely go both ways. That's my point. Both sides need to be taken into consideration. That is not what most comments are, though. Most comments say things like "we can trade him later if we need." But that isn't a guarantee. The calculation is taking all the "what ifs" from both sides and deciding how likely each is and then weighing those and making a decision. The Twins haven't been sellers every year. Their problem has been that they've been "sit by and do nothing" most years. They had a window open and they sat around and did nothing for back-to-back deadlines and then an entire offseason after winning a playoff series. If the Twins do their math and decide they're likely to be a "90+ win squad that has a decent chance to come out of the AL" they should absolutely not trade Joe Ryan. And they should also get new equations. Because that isn't a likely outcome without significant changes to this roster. Beyond just hoping the prospects all hit the ground running full speed. You kind of make that argument when you ask about keeping Duran and Varland meaning the Twins are 5 games better. Sorry, but 1 game above .500 in late July wouldn't have me hollering for a "big SP move." It'd have me saying the Twins should now trade Ryan, Jeffers, and Duran. For likely less than we got for Duran last year which hurts our chances to build that 90+ win squad in the future. If you, or anyone else, sees a 90+ win Twins team next year without making some major moves, more power to you. I find that incredibly hard to believe.

What if the new CBA makes Joe Ryan a free agent the second it's signed? What if Joe Ryan simply wants to go back to California and isn't interested in staying here no matter what the salary floor is? The Twins already talked to Joe Ryan about 2027. He has an option for next year that was agreed to when he signed his deal for this year. I guess it's possible 2028 and beyond was never even mentioned when talking about 2027, but that feels unlikely. Dan Hayes reported that Joe Ryan was looking for 7 years, 210 million to sign an extension. If the owners don't get their way on a cap, Joe isn't staying here. If the owners do get their way with a cap, it's still very possible that Joe isn't staying here. The point is that there's very real risk in not trading Joe Ryan before the deadline. If Joe's afraid there's going to be a drastic change in the CBA that will cost him money with his next deal, he's going to be the one driving extension talks right now. The odds of Joe signing an extension just because there's a new CBA in place are very low, in my opinion. If he won't sign for less than 7, 210 now, I find it very unlikely that he's willing to sign for less than that in the offseason.

If the argument is "don't trade him now unless you can get X in return" then it absolutely needs to be part of the equation. The risk of losing a player (won't have him for the playoffs, may not get a player as good as him back, etc.) are always mentioned. A large part of the argument for not trading him is that you can do it later. Well, what if you can't? That needs to be part of the equation. And there is a history with Joe Ryan. He never finishes seasons strong. Ever. His value is going to take a hit automatically due to the control being less. But if he has his typical 2nd half performance, it's going to tank even more. There is very real risk in holding Joe Ryan. See Lopez, Pablo for example. And the idea that you need to get prospect X now or he's not worth trading just doesn't make sense, because if you can't get them now, you're not getting them with less control of Ryan.

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

"he knows they want to see ownership fully commit to building a sustainable winner." If Pohlad knows that, then the right thing to do for that goal is to trade Ryan before 5 PM CT on August 3, 2026. The Ohtani game was going to sell well whether Ryan was starting that game or not. That argument does nothing for me. I'm not going to take the time to analyze whether or not the Twins sell notably more tickets on Ryan start days, but that'd have been the data to provide in this article if you're trying to make the "he sells tickets" argument. Show us that he sells tickets. I'd bet Ryan start days don't have significantly more ticket sales than any other rotation spot. The mistake the Pohlads made (and Tom has at least said the words he should about it) was cutting payroll after the playoff series win. This isn't that. The team is below .500, it's the only reason we're talking about the idea of selling pieces. You earn the fans back by building a sustainable winner. And trading Joe Ryan is the best chip they have left in that regard. He's not likely to sign an extension here before he hits free agency. So, you're losing him within the next 1.5 years. You think the PR hit is worse now when you're already not selling tickets or at the end of next season when he walks for nothing and the "cheap Pohlad" screams reach peak levels and then you didn't get anything for him anyways? The argument for "goes beyond the field" is still in favor of trading him now. Take the PR hit when you're already down. Don't start climbing out and then take the PR hit. There's no way their business team is making any realistic pitch that they expect to see a massive spike in attendance next year. No way should Pohlad believe that. They spent way too long believing DSP when he tried to shovel that crap. Build an actual, true, winner and the fans will start to return. If you can extend Ryan, great, do it, that'll be a huge help in the PR department. I believe there's about a 1% chance of that happening. So trade him. Now. Before the deadline. Take your mini PR hit (they don't have enough fans who care at this point for it to be a massive PR hit) now and build your way back up with the best chance possible at building something sustainable and more than "hey, we may be .500 this year, so come see us!" Trade Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers.

Totally with you. I'd bet there's a week where he plays a corner 4 or 5 times and he's up the next week. Or maybe it'll be like a 2-week stretch. But, barring injury, there'll be a very clear sign he's on the way when he starts playing in a corner.

Yeah, sorry, no interest in giving up so many possible future pieces for a shot in 2026 and 2027. None whatsoever. The only buying the Twins should do this year is trading guys like DeBarge for reliever help. Guys with near 0% chances of being real MLB pieces. Gunnar Henderson is an interesting buy low piece, but the Orioles have no reason to move him. No interest in any of the other guys here. I have very real concerns that Pohlad may push the FO into something resembling this kind of plan, but I'm very much hoping they stay away from selling any of the future for trying to make a run at .500 this year. Trade Ryan and Jeffers and build for 2027 and beyond.

I don't think Jenkins has kicked the proverbial door in, but I think he's getting close to having answered every question he can at AAA. In watching him play, he looks like he could hold his own in the majors. But he's not so dominant that I'm in any rush to call him up before the deadline. You're talking 2 weeks. No need to make roster moves to get him here now. I'd give him until I know I won't lose his rookie eligibility to put him in the driver's seat for RoY and an extra pick next year. Mid- to late-August, or a September call-up would be my timeline. If you call him up, it's to play every day. Not DH, but play the field. That means there's 3 spots for him. LF, CF, RF. The Twins currently have Larnach-Martin, Buxton, and Keaschall in those spots. You're not replacing Martin with a lefty hitting Jenkins to be the short side of a platoon with Larnach. You're not replacing Bell on an everyday basis at DH to put Larnach there and get Jenkins every day ABs. There's no easy fit at this point. And if part of your plan to get him playing time in the big picture is to trade Larnach or Bell, you really don't want to bench them in the middle of a huge stretch for your team. Not exactly selling the "he can help you get to, or win in, the playoffs" narrative by benching someone while attempting to get to the playoffs. I see no real reason at all to force Jenkins into a Twins jersey before the deadline. Or even after it if there isn't an injury. Get him a month+ to get his feet wet at the end of the year. That's a plenty reasonable amount of time for a guy who hasn't done anything crazy at AAA, but is clearly a large part of your future and is answering every question in AAA to this point.

Yep, that's what the NFL did. And NHL. The Wild were getting crushed by the new rules until just last year. It's a very real possibility. I'd very much expect the players to make a push for getting paid twice if there's going to be a cap forced on them.

I guess I shouldn't claim to know that for 100%, but spin is a large part of what makes a pitcher's "stuff" so good, right? On a basic level, its spin and velocity. And their stuff always declines with age. My assumption would be that the decline isn't 100% velocity driven.

The best thing we have to predict things off is other leagues implementing caps. None of them had a transition period. Closest thing to one was the NBA grandfathering in veteran deals. But teams over the cap from that couldn't sign free agents. Obviously every league has its own unique set of circumstances, but no league has phased things in or given a multi-year transition period yet. None of us have enough info to make all that great of guesses, so I'm going mostly off the precedent from other leagues.

That's certainly possible, but I think unlikely. If the players are looking to maximize the dollars coming their way in a floor/cap situation, they want buyouts of every deal where they still get their money, but the team has to drop them so they can sign somewhere else. Double dip. Edwin Diaz wants his 52+ million left on his deal from the Dodgers while also signing a 3 year, $33 million deal with the Twins. This is their chance to take a massive chunk of cash. The owners agree to it as a 1-time payment in return for getting cost control for their franchises. The players maximize their money by forcing teams to pay players twice instead of slowly adjusting in. But there's so many different rules that will have to be ironed out on how the cap and contracts work that it's really hard to say. I'd put my money on an immediate payroll requirement, though. Players want to get their money coming and going.

I have no doubt he can get that money; my concern is the Twins being the ones to pay it. He relies on his fastball spin making his fastball do abnormal things. The second that is gone Joe Ryan will start to really struggle. I don't want the Twins paying 30 million to him for years after that point. I have no problem with people wanting to extend Joe. I just think it turns into many of the same people complaining that his contract is ruining their ability to build out the rest of the roster. We haven't even gotten into pitcher injuries and the likelihood of that happening. It's a giant risk to pay any pitcher into their mid- to late-thirties. Giant.

I think Hartman is already on most other top 100s now. Will be interesting to see what Fangraphs says about him in their update. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept them both. A little disappointed if they don't deal at least Jeffers, but not surprised.

Caminiti and Hartman.

It depends where the cap is at. There aren't a lot of guys with contracts big enough to make real movement toward the cap for them that aren't pretty big name guys, right? I wouldn't expect Ohtani or Tucker to be dropped, but Freeman and/or Betts? Certainly past their prime guys, but I'd certainly pay Freeman before I overspent on Jeffers. Can they keep their entire Cy Young style rotation together or is Blake Snell and/or Tyler Glasnow hitting the market? They able to afford Edwin Diaz still? Tanner Scott? The Dodgers would need to drop $75+ mil in payroll to get to a cap at $250 million. You're not getting there by non-tendering Alex Call. Obviously, the Twins aren't the only team that'd have to spend, so it's not like they just get the pick of the lot, but I think you'd see some awfully big names hitting the market.

5 years?! That'd be unprecedented. NFL teams had to cut players (whirlwind). NHL teams had to cut players (whirlwind). The NBA did grandfather veteran contracts in, but teams over the cap couldn't sign free agents (not such a whirlwind). 5 years would be the entire length of the new CBA. I think there is a 0% chance of a phase in that lasts the entire length of the CBA and then has to be renegotiated again. There has never been a true "phase in" for any other major American sports league that implemented a cap. And only the NBA grandfathered in any contracts.

If the Twins are forced to spend more there will be teams forced to cut and the free agent and trade markets won't look anything like they do right now. There's no world in which the owners accept a floor without a cap. Using the current free agent market in relation to the Twins being forced to spend more isn't a great exercise. The chaos enjoying side of my brain is actually rather intrigued by the idea of a floor and cap being implemented and there being a whirlwind of moves as teams have a shortened period of time before the season starts to get compliant 1 way or the other. Would be fantastic entertainment.

I think these are all very real possibilities. More order of confidence that they happen would be: 1. Pitching staff will be tested 2. The offense will slow to some extent 3. Tigers will make a push (Skubal decision is such a toss-up) 4. They'll have an eventful deadline 5. They'll play meaningful September baseball

The numbers provided in this thread by way of Dan Hayes reporting is 7 years, $210 million. Are you willing to pay 34-, 35-, 36-, and 37-year-old Joe Ryan $30 million a year? More power to ya if you are, but I think that's a contract that the vast majority of Twins fans are bemoaning when it's killing their payroll in 4 years.