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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Zack Short started the year in Detroit. He has 16 PAs for the Mets. Missing quite a bit of context and have some incorrect data there. Just like going off what batter has the 13th most PAs for a team is missing a whole lot of context.
  2. chpettit19
    He'd be #2 for me because he hasn't stepped foot on a pro field yet. But he's certainly in the conversation for #1 with Jenkins. It's those 2 and then everyone else.
  3. chpettit19
    That's 27 more PAs in 19 fewer games than James Outman had with the Twins this year. I don't think that's the same at all. He's a short-side platoon guy. Outman would've been the big side of a platoon but wasn't even that. The Twins use of the 13th spot is absolutely not the norm in modern baseball. Teams don't tend to roster guys they don't trust to hit against anyone ever or be defensive replacements. They have some platoon spots so there'll be guys who don't play as many games (like Arias) because they're righties who only hit against lefties, but it is not typical to carry a guy you don't ever trust to step into the batter's box against any pitcher ever.
  4. chpettit19
    Extra dramatics to show how he wasn't at all like the MVP candidates he was being comped against. People tend to be more open to comps when you can give them blind numbers and they can't pick out their favorite Twins player when comped against a guy they aren't as familiar with but certainly don't see as an elite player at the position.
  5. chpettit19
    I hope Boras can convince a team he's a .800+ (or .900+ if you're going off this year) OPS guy and he gets crazy money. I don't think it's likely. I think most teams are going to look at a guy going into his age 30 season, who already has trouble sustaining performance for entire seasons, has never started more than 81 games at catcher, and is a below average defensive catcher and think he's more likely than not going to perform around his career number of a .756 OPS over the life of a deal. And that's a rich man's Victor Caratini. Or at least a whole lot closer to Victor Caratini than any of the guys who got $100+ million deals.
  6. chpettit19
    I don't think 60 would be crazy, no.
  7. chpettit19
    At that point we need to be trading Culpepper and Kriedler for bullpen help and getting Houston to the bigs so we can have a parade in late October...
  8. chpettit19
    Ryan Jeffers has never started more than 81 games at catcher. Ever.
  9. chpettit19
    I commented on JT's age and that his defense is what is carrying his value. Jeffers has 0 defensive value. If his bat dips, he's then a below average defensive catcher and below average hitter. JT can survive a dip in offense because he started with a much higher offensive baseline and he also continues to bring defensive value. I disagree with you because I don't think the $15 million projects are low and I don't think he'll get 5 years. I think he'll get 3 or 4 years at 45 to 55 million. I disagree because I think you've significantly overrated Jeffers due to familiarity with him.
  10. chpettit19
    We can debate the definition of a "starting" catcher, but Jeffers has never started more than 81 games in a season at catcher. I don't call that a "starting" catcher. I already told you they have identical 106 OPS+ numbers the last 2 years combined. If you think Jeffers is a 130-140 OPS+ hitter as a primary/starting catcher, we just simply need to agree to disagree. I hope Boras can convince a team he's who you think he is and he gets paid 150 million. Seems like a good guy and I have no reason to not wish him wealth and success. But I don't think it's a likely proposition.
  11. chpettit19
    Never!
  12. chpettit19
    But, if you want to do WAR, here's the comps you're throwing out: Raleigh: 15 WAR in that time frame. Smith: 12.8 JT: 9.3 Realmuto is the closest, and he got 3 years and 45 million. But he's a premiere defensive catcher who doesn't rely solely on his offense to make up his numbers so the expectation is he'll provide more value as he ages to combat the point you bring up of the offensive variability of catchers. Raleigh is still an elite defender even with his offense completely cratering. Before JT got paid, he was putting up 4.5 WAR a season, not 2. So, even the stat you want to go with puts Jeffers far more than a step below the guys you're talking about. His contract will be much closer to Alejandro Kirk (2 WAR catcher). But since he'll likely get fewer years than Kirk due to his age, you're most likely looking at 3 years and 40 to 50 million.
  13. chpettit19
    .246/.328/.414/.742 .263/.329/.406/.735 Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Those are their slash lines from the last 2 seasons. Neither is a plus defender. They're both bat first catchers with identical OPS+ numbers. I don't care at all about WAR numbers for catchers. The defensive metrics placed in there makes it a near useless stat for me.
  14. chpettit19
    I mean, anything is possible, but you're comparing him to MVP candidates and gold glove type defenders. Career OPS for Jeffers is .756. Yes, he had 1 other year like this 4 seasons ago. Boras will do everything he can to point to that, and maybe he gets a team to believe in it. But his career number is much closer to what he was the last 2 years. Victor Caratini. That's my disagreement. You're pointing to the wrong comps. He's not Will Smith, Cal Raleigh, or JT Realmuto. He's Victor Caratini. If the Twins need to spend because of CBA rule changes, other teams are going to need to cut because of CBA rule changes. The free agent list won't look like it does today. The owners aren't going to agree to a floor without a cap. And the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, etc. will have to get under the cap. And they'll have to trade and cut expensive players to do it. Overspending on Jeffers by $10 million would not be a good use of their money.
  15. chpettit19
    I assume you mean Morris, not Matthews, but this is pretty much where I'm at on things, too.
  16. chpettit19
    There are 2 catchers in MLB with $100 million deals currently. JT Realmuto had one previously. Ryan Jeffers is not JT Realmuto, Cal Raleigh, or Will Smith. He is not a plus defender. And he is not an .800+ OPS guy. He isn't ever getting MVP votes. I think familiarity, and general lack of offensive stars in MN, has lead to a significant overrating of Ryan Jeffers. He's absolutely a solid player who can start for a contender. But he's not in the same stratosphere as the catchers who get $100 million deals. His best case is probably the Kirk deal at 5 years and 58 million. But Kirk is 26, not 29. Jeffers getting 5 years and being paid until he's 34 is also no sure thing. Would people have been happy paying Victor Caratini 5 years and 50+ million this offseason? If I told you we signed Victor Caratini to a 1 year, $23 million deal before this season would you have been thrilled? They're both below average defenders and their lines the last 2 years are: .246/.328/.414/.742 .263/.329/.406/.735 Both had an OPS+ of 106. Unless you think Ryan Jeffers is suddenly a .900 OPS guy, he's Victor Caratini. And nobody would be happy paying Victor Caratini the numbers that get thrown around on Jeffers.
  17. chpettit19
    Houston has passed the Cavaco test. He's not an immediate and obvious bust. But let's slow down on the talk of calling him up to AAA after 17 games. His OPS, apparently, jumped over 100 points based on 1 game. Making any decisions on the numbers from this size of a sample is severely flawed strategy. I haven't seen any of his AA games. But how he's getting to the numbers matters. Teams don't just look at the numbers and say "he's ready!" They look at the process and how the guys are getting to the numbers. They know, or should know, what it takes to succeed at the next level up, and, ultimately, the top level. There are a lot of guys who can put up numbers at a level by doing things that won't work in higher levels. It's the entire concern with Emma. It's why McCrusher and Fedko got almost no run, and failed in the little they did. If Houston puts up similar numbers for another month, and is doing what the coaches know, or should know, he needs to do to succeed at the higher levels, they should start talking about moving him up. Getting a month or so at AAA would be a huge win and be a very good result for Houston. Let's give him a few more games than 17 to determine he's conquered AA, though. When you OPS can jump 100 points in a game, it's probably too small a sample size.
  18. chpettit19
    "I would prefer they extend him, but this FO hasn't even approached Ryan for that according to all reports. Sad, but true." This is hard, factual data? Or, is this you assuming? We're all assuming. It's all we can do. Unless you have inside knowledge you'd like to let us in on? My argument is that it's a far more reasonable assumption that they at least asked about 2028 when they were talking about 2027. No, it doesn't contradict my assumption. My assumption is the Twins asked about 2028 when they were talking about 2027 and he said no. Which sticks with him not being interested in an extension. Yes, we agree there.
  19. chpettit19
    I like the idea here. I think it's tough to get a guy who's such an elite prospect and so close to the majors, though. Is 1 year (if they wait til the offseason) or 1 year and a playoff race of Joe Ryan worth plugging Lee in at 3B for the next 4 years instead of Made for the next 6? If the Twins would be looking to plug Made into the 3B job in 2027, why wouldn't the Brewers? I think Luis Pena may be a more likely target when talking about the Brewers specifically. Still an elite prospect, but not in AA yet and likely looking at more of an end of 2027 debut timeline. Or an Eli Willits type if the Nats want to get wild and make a push (not predicting that, but he's also farther away than Made). Cam Caminiti and Eric Hartman from the Braves have been my desired targets for Ryan. Both should be in AA at the age of 20 (sometime this season) but aren't likely to be expected to contribute largely to the Braves until 2028 (2027 debuts). Starting pitching and CFers are always good places to start (along with SS) when bringing back prospects.
  20. chpettit19
    It's a more "startling conclusion" to assume they discussed an extension beyond his arbitration years when they were already talking about future seasons than assuming they haven't at all discussed a deal beyond his arbitration years? Your argument is that it's more realistic that they were talking about 2026 and 2027 but didn't even broach the idea of 2028 and beyond than it is that they mentioned 2028 and beyond when discussing 2026 and 2027? Yeah, sorry, but that is a "startling conclusion" to reach. There are thousands of extensions that are reached or not reached without a single peep about them in the news. The most obvious conclusion to draw here is that they at least mentioned the idea of an extension. What is widely available in reporting is that Joe Ryan has been very staunchly against an extension and the arbitration process in general. That combined with the fact that they discussed at least 1 future year would make it a pretty simple jump to them having discussed an extension beyond his arb years and he told them he wasn't interested so let's just get the arb years done.
  21. chpettit19
    If they will, we should never see Jeffers in a Twins uni again because he should be gone before today's game!
  22. chpettit19
    How is Caratini peaking anymore than Jeffers? They've had nearly an identical slash line for 2 years. Neither is a good defensive catcher. I'd argue Jeffers is the one truly peaking right now since his slash line is so far off his norm. Caratini is doing slightly better than he normally does recently, but nothing crazy. Jeffers is the one with the value that will never be higher. But, beyond that, the simple answer is that losing Caratini or Jackson now means you go from 3 to 1 catcher next year. Losing Jeffers means you go from 3 to 2.
  23. chpettit19
    Why would the Yankees want to trade their first and 3rd most used relievers for Jeffers when the point of Jeffers is to try to win now? That's the point the other poster is making. Teams trying to get Jeffers aren't looking to trade MLB pieces because they're trying to win. They aren't going to plug their hole at catcher while opening a hole in their pen. If the Twins want MLB relievers in return for Jeffers, they need to get a 3rd team involved. Jeffers to Yankees, Yankee prospects to team 3, team 3 relievers to Twins. The Yankees aren't trading Cruz and Headrick to the Twins for Ryan Jeffers.
  24. chpettit19
    Call Atlanta and tell them the talk starts with Caminiti and Hartman and we'll go from there.
  25. chpettit19
    Joe Ryan signed a new deal this last offseason that included an option for next year. Not sure what reports you're reading, but they had to talk about his future with the team to do that. Joe Ryan has been very open for nearly his entire MLB career that he wants to hit the market and thinks the arbitration system is stupid. The Twins are clearly not a super well-run team, but not having extensions for players doesn't automatically mean they haven't discussed it. As it turns out, players have the ability to say "no."
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