chpettit19

I don't love their system. Eldridge would be a must, but I'm not really sure there's much else there I love. Going off what Boston just gave up for Crochet last offseason, I'd expect 2 top 100 guys plus another solid piece or 2. I'm not sure San Fran has that. Whisenhunt is already 25 next year. He has to be good from the jump at that age. And he hasn't been great in his first 5 starts. He'd be the 3rd piece in a deal, to me. Gonzalez is their other possible top 100 type guy, but he's in the Dominican league still. Those are some real long odds to be betting on with Ryan. He may be an absolute star, and the type of all-around talent I wish the Twins had more of in the system, but I'm just not a fan of guys who are so far away being key parts of trades for somebody like Ryan. Those 3 would be the right type of return for Ryan in a vacuum, I'm just not sure I'd be convinced it's the best package they could get for him. Or, maybe the better way to say it is that it wouldn't be my favorite package they'd likely be offered for him.

I'm not sure where you got those stats from, but they are not accurate. From July 30 (the next game he played) to 9/24 (the last game he played) of the 2024 season Jose Miranda had 148 plate appearances with a .211/.236/.303/.539 quad slash.

Many of us explained why Kepler wasn't meeting his. Too many grounders and pop ups. He hit too many balls that were easy outs so it made perfect sense that his BABIP was always low. Just looking at 1 stat (whether an expected stat or something like batting average) is never a good strategy. But people who actually dive into the stats as a whole actually do come up with answers on most player's struggles or successes. I agree, this article in general was wildly off target because he looked at 1 stat and didn't do any real digging into Clemens' overall performance. Which is disappointing because I think Matthew is actually one of the best writers on this site.

Low BABIP was the same excuse we heard for why the next season was going to be Kepler's season every year. He was always due for a breakout! It can be a sign of bad luck, but it isn't always. Kody Clemens is right on his career norms outside of 1 crazy month. He's putting up the same stats he always puts up. He's not an MLB player. He's not some 22-year-old rookie. Wallner, on the other hand, has a batting average 50 pts below his career norm this year. People act like this is his norm, it isn't. He hit .259 with power last year. .249 with power the year before. People just assume he's always a .200 hitter because he strikes out more than they'd like. Kody Clemen's career line is .203/.260/.392/.651. Kody Clemen's 2025 line is .207/.278/.417/.694. And his line after his complete and utter outlier of a month of May is .191/.258/.368/.625. He's doing what he's always done. Be a non-MLB hitter. Which is why an actually good team waived him.

Kody Clemens is awful and it's embarrassing that we're still talking about him. He had an out of this world month of May and its carried his stat line the rest of the year. He isn't a major leaguer. The fact that we're trying to twist ourselves into trying to find some way to explain how players like Kody Clemens can make sense on the Twins roster is the problem. Has been for decades.

I guess if I'm going to read an article on the Twins pitching development strategy as it relates to injuries I'd prefer to have some data on the Twins injury rates and not just have it noted that an individual (to be fair, the article did note a couple other pitchers were hurt this year) pitcher hurt his shoulder after being developed by the Twins. I'm not sure how we are supposed to draw any conclusions from this. The Twins rotation has been well above average in terms of health the last handful of years. I don't know about their system as a whole (that's a lot more research). If you want to worry about a team's pitching health go look at the Dodgers. They haven't been able to keep a rotation healthy for years. Claiming SWR is "coming off injury" is pretty ridiculous. He wasn't hurt in any baseball sense. What are we doing here? We're supposed to believe that him having to have a parasite removed in August (or was it removed in July?) 2025 puts his 2026 season in jeopardy somehow? Come on. Zebby and Pablo are pitching already. If they're hurt again before the end of the season, sure, counting on them for 2026 is a little questionable, but if they finish the season in the rotation, there's no reason at all to think they wouldn't have a normal offseason and be just fine for 2026. Pablo being traded is a far bigger concern than his shoulder at this point. This entire article is based around Festa's shoulder and Festa's shoulder alone. Trying to stretch SWR, Zebby, and Pablo into it is extreme. Beyond that there's no data provided to show us whether the development plan to add velo to draft picks has caused a rash of injuries in the minors. Knowing the Twins rotation has been above average in terms of health at the major league level for years, I have no reason to believe anything they're doing is causing a spike in injuries.

How does signing Walker Jenkins to an extension create bad press? Wouldn't it create the opposite? And having him at a discount means you don't have to lose him later. I don't follow the logic. And not signing anyone to a deal beyond 2027 is bad press.

The new minority owners don't officially own any of the Twins yet. It makes complete sense that they haven't said anything about them. They won't until the league approves the sale.

I guess that wouldn't shock me, but I don't really understand why. The league isn't folding. There's still going to be baseball after 2027. They're still going to have to pay players after 2027. The CBA will account for any contracts that run longer than that for any rules that change drastically. I don't think there's any reason for them to avoid contracts beyond that season. The most likely outcome is that the league comes out with a CBA that's pretty similar or completely and utterly different (salary floor and cap). If it's completely and utterly different, then the CBA will adjust his contract accordingly. If it's pretty similar, then the savings will still be good to have. Like I said, them having that thought process wouldn't shock me. But I don't know why it'd be their strategy.

I don't know if this is aimed at me, but I fully understood that that wasn't what you were saying. And I didn't say you were saying that. So, no, you don't need to type it in all caps (for me). My mention of making them relievers for the entire season was saying that it would make more sense to do that than to have them bounce back and forth between roles all year. My stance on having them be a reliever to start the year, then a starter when you need it, then a reliever again, then a starter again, then a reliever again, and so on as needed is that it will not only hurt their development but also their production. You want them to be an important part of a pitching staff on a team you say you want to compete? Then give them a role and let them stick with it. Preparing to start a game is different than preparing to relieve. Pitching multiple innings as a starter is different than pitching one or 2 innings as a reliever. Trying to bounce back and forth between those 2 roles whenever needed throughout the year would not only hurt their development but also how they performed in season. So, pick their 2026 role. Reliever in the majors or starter that may have to begin the year in AAA. And what happens if Abel gets shelled for 3 months as a reliever in the majors? Do you put him back in AAA and try to stretch him back out as a starter and restart his development there? Give him the whole year to get his brains bashed in at the major league level as a reliever because he's one of your 12 or 13 best pitchers because you have a bad team? Send him to AAA as a reliever? Just blindly putting your 13 best pitchers on the major league roster because you want to compete is not a good strategy. More needs to be taken into account. It's why no team (not even the Dodgers) operates that way.

Yes, Abel has dominated in AAA, but he's also struggled. And he has things that could realistically be worked on there. Like control. He doesn't know where his pitches are going quite often and major league hitters are too good for him. So, are you trying to compete in 2026? Because he isn't going to give you a great shot at that if you're throwing him out there as one of your core pitching pieces regularly. He's going to have a lot of blowup games where he's walking everybody and getting shelled when he throws it down the middle. I'm not concerned about the buildup, I'm concerned about the short- and long-term development and production of those guys. Ober and SWR are a separate thing, but the difference in pitching out of the pen and out of the rotation is real. The routines are different. The in-game approaches are different. Like I said before, every one of those guys would get real starts next year with or without Ryan and Lopez in the rotation. If you're making them relievers for the entire year because you want to get them major league innings for their development without care for trying to win in 2026 that'd be one thing, but that's not your goal. I don't think you can have an actually competitive pen and have all those guys in it. And at that point I don't understand why you wouldn't be focusing on their long-term development. From following along here, to me, the question really is whether or not you've actually built a competitive bullpen here or just tried your best to. I would not go into next year looking at that pen and expecting it to hold leads effectively. You're kind of going down 2 paths. You talk about what's best for Abel being him facing MLB hitters. Well, that isn't about building a good MLB pen, that's about his development. Building a good MLB pen, in my opinion, wouldn't include Mick Abel to start the year. Because the odds are he struggles. Mightily. Same with Bradley. So, is it about them getting better by pitching in AAA or about building a competitive Twins bullpen? Because I think the answers to those questions change things.

Are you turning 3 of the Ober, Matthews, Woods Richardson, Bradley, Festa and Abel group into relievers for the long-term or just while you still have Lopez and/or Ryan in the fold? If you're not turning them into career relievers, I'm not sure I agree that the best thing for developing them as starters is to bounce them back and forth between starter and reliever as needed. I'll bet my house, both vehicles, and every penny I earn for the next 50 years that the Twins are going to need more than 5 starting pitchers next year. Shoot, I'll bet they need more than 6 starting pitchers next year. They'll use each and every one of those guys as a starting pitcher next year whether they have Lopez and Ryan or not. I don't think shifting any of them to the pen is the move if those are the guys you're looking to build your future rotation around.

Then don't complain when he leaves. Because he's going to cost more than Correa to keep and we know the feeling on paying one guy so much of the payroll. This is how teams with the Twins payroll have to operate. Unless the new CBA significantly (like entirely) changes how the financials of major league baseball work, you have to take these kinds of risks if you want to keep a star around these parts for longer than their arbitration years without paying them 25+% of the payroll. It's the only option. Once he establishes he's an MLB star he's out of the price range and it's game over for the Twins. So, take the risk now or take the risk later. Either way it's a risk.

Pete Alonso wanted to stay in NY, not get the most money. So, Scott Boras kept him in NY. Jose Altuve wanted to stay in Houston, Carlos Gonzalez wanted to stay in Colorado, Elvis Andrus wanted to stay in Texas, Bogaerts wanted to stay in Boston, Strasburg wanted to stay in Washington, the list goes on...so he got them all extensions before they hit free agency. Scott Boras is really good at his job and he has a lot of clients who are really good at baseball so he's able to get them a lot of money. Good for him and good for his clients. Wish I could've been one of his clients. Would've been quite the life.

Then he's going to cost more. That's the risk. Once he establishes that he's a star he's priced out of the Twins payroll and he's gone in either 5 years when they trade him or 6 when he walks for a comp pick. (Under current CBA rules, which may change drastically in 2 years) If you're good with that, cool. But waiting until you see how he does means waiting until he and his agent have more leverage. And his agent is really, really good without much leverage so once he has it the Twins are likely out of the Walker Jenkins business. They probably can't get him to sign an extension now because of how good his agent is at his job, but waiting until Walker is lighting up the majors is essentially closing the door on Walker Jenkins being the future face of the Twins because he's leaving in free agency or trade at that point.

Do I expect the Twins to sign Walker Jenkins to an extension at this point in time? No. Do I wish they would? Yes. I understand it's a risk and he may not work out. But it's also a risk if he does work out and you didn't sign him to an extension because then you're losing him in 5 years. You need stars to win. You need to take a risk and hope he's your star. And if he is you need him locked up for as long as possible. Signing him to an extension before he debuts is the best chance to do that. Whether or not you can get that deal done is the bigger question.

My guess (hope?) is that they floated his name at the deadline so they have a feel for what his market is. I'd guess they didn't find anyone willing to meet their asking price and that's why he's still here. That should lead them to non-tendering him. At least that's what a good front office would've done. Wouldn't go into the offseason completely blind and would know whether or not they have a shot at trading him before they have to make the arbitration decision.

Sabato was a fun story for a while this year, but I wouldn't add him to the 40-man. I don't think there's much of a chance he gets taken in the Rule 5, and if he does, good luck to him. If he was still mashing, I'd feel different. But he isn't. Bat only corner players who don't destroy AAA and are 26 aren't super high on the Rule 5 wish list for teams. Cardenas would be #1 with a bullet for me from these 4. Mickey Gasper is not an MLB catcher. Cardenas is rule 5 eligible. Either you're protecting him or you aren't. You've already made that decision. And if you've decided you're keeping him, give him a month worth of games in the majors to figure out if he can be your #2 catcher next year. Or at least gain some MLB data on that decision. Eeles isn't Rule 5 eligible so he wouldn't be my choice, as much as I love watching him play and his story. Not taking up a 40-man spot for the offseason just to get him some ABs now. Fedko is an interesting one. I wouldn't be super worried about him getting picked in the Rule 5, but it'd be possible if a team thinks he can truly field CF well enough to be a 4th OFer. He'd be my second choice off this list, but I'd take someone like McCusker who's already on the 40-man over him. I know people freak out about the Rule 5, but holding a guy for an entire year on your 26-man is hard. The odds of Fedko being that good are incredibly small. Not 0, but tiny. If you can avoid adding another non-MLB talent to the 40-man and push your decision on him out another year, that's better.

Next year is Rodriguez's last option year. Whether he's ready or not it's time for him to get as much MLB time as possible. I wouldn't use that option on opening day unless he's the worst hitter they have in camp. Certainly not burning his last option to get Fedko, Clemens, or Will Holland on the roster. And tying the team ERA to Vazquez's injury when they're running this pitching staff out there is pretty aggressive. In the 3 years Vazquez has been here, the team has had a better ERA with Jeffers behind the plate than Vazquez behind the plate. His injury is not the reason a staff full of guys most posters (die hard baseball fanatics) have never even heard of are pitching poorly.

Fine, I'll do it.

As the article mostly points out, Rutschman is more name than production at this point. I'm a 2 year sample size guy. You can have a down year and I'm not so worried. But you back it up with another one and I believe teams have to treat it more as who you are. Adley absolutely may snap back and be an all star type again, but the Orioles are likely going to be asking for a package in return reflective of his all star upside and it doesn't make any sense at all (not even a little tiny bit) for a team in the Twins position to pay that kind of a price to hope he completely changes course and gets back to being that. Adley has 1 more year of control than Jeffers. It's not like he has 5 more years left or something. He isn't controlled long enough to be a realistic part of the Twins next competitive window. Shoot, many of us are talking about trading Pablo, Ryan, and Ober because they're only controlled for 2 more years and will be into their 30s at that point. Basallo isn't blocked by Rutschman. Basallo and Rutschman will DH and play some first to get their bats in the lineup, if they're worth it. If Rutschman continues to get worse with the bat he won't be a concern at all when it comes to finding him extra PAs. Rutschman should not be the Twins top trade target. He doesn't fit their timeline, nor what I think the safe money is on for their spending/payroll. Giving up future assets for a win now piece doesn't at all fit where the Twins are in the team building cycle. Not even a little bit. Well, I suppose I should say it doesn't fit where the Twins should be in the team building cycle if they're doing what they should be doing. No telling what they'll actually do. I'm still not convinced they aren't trying to win now and in the future so who knows, maybe they should trade for Adley Rutschman.

I hadn't seen that, thanks for the info. Smart move by them. I think getting your elite prospect's feet wet the year before and then letting them have a full go at the RoY award the next year is the smart move.

If Baltimore lets Basallo play out the rest of the season and exhaust his rookie eligibility (stupid move) and the Twins put Jenkins on their opening day roster, there'd be a very good chance he's the odds on favorite to win. He'd be the best prospect in the AL with the most opportunity. Give that whatever percent you want. And then you're talking about adding another late first round pick to the minor league system which is a wonderful value add to the Twins chances of building a true contender if they can add another Keaschall with that pick.

The point is that you aren't guaranteed that extra year. The Pirates didn't get an extra year with Skenes. They didn't call him up until well after the service time cutoff date, but he was still awarded a full year of service time for winning rookie of the year. The Pirates could've gained an extra first round draft pick from that extra time with Skenes in the majors. But instead, they gained nothing at all. That's a very bad value proposition, I'd say. So, if you're going to manipulate service time with the elite prospects of the world, you better manipulate it hard. Better hold him out half the season. And if you're going to hold him out for half the season in 2026, why not just hold him out the whole thing and see what happens in 2027 with a potential lockout and maybe you don't have to start his clock until he's 23 or 24 and you get his whole prime without ever having to pay him.

Baltimore has not cut payroll. I don't get why this keeps being said around here. Their payroll is over 160 million this year. They cut payroll after their most recent attempt at winning in the 20-teens when they were rebuilding, but after they were sold their new ownership invested 60 million in the team. Their payroll has jumped significantly each of the last 3 years. They cut spending when they started their rebuild like they should have, but they've been investing and building their payroll back up as they've been getting competitive again. If the Twins spent 165 mil like Baltimore is right now I don't think any of us would be complaining.