chpettit19

As opposed to keeping the 2 best pitchers and having 1 legit hitter and winning games 1-0? I'm not trying to compete for the playoffs in 2026. This is my hopes for their rebuild. Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez are gone after 2027. Letting them leave for 2 comp picks total would be one of the worst decisions this team has ever made so they need to trade them before 2027. I'd prefer to trade them now and bring in guys that I will have in 2+ years when the rebuild should be much closer to completed. Replacing them with Bo and Josh gives this team their best chance of having 1 side of the ball not have to have real work done over the next 4 years. The position player side of the roster shouldn't need any real work for 3 or 4 years while Buxton, Bo, and Naylor are locking down the top of the lineup. Or you can keep the 2 pitchers, still have no real chance at the playoffs in 2026, trade them after 2026 and be in the same place, but without Bo Bichette and Josh Naylor in your lineup.

*I used The Athletic's contract estimates on the bigger free agents. Bo for 8/212 and Naylor for 4/92. I don't buy into the idea that you can't sign big free agents until the rest of your roster is ready to win. Signing Bo and Josh give the Twins 3 legitimate top of the order bats for the next 3 years (until Buxton's deal runs out). That leaves Keaschall, Lewis, Martin, Emma, Jenkins, GG, Wallner, Lee, Mendez, Culpepper, etc. to fill the gaps and hopefully take the offense to a place where it's legitimate. Bo can move to 2B if/when Culpepper, Houston, or hopefully Roch are ready and better defenders at SS. The Twins are no longer relying on youth to fill 4 of 5 spots at the top of the order, but instead they need to fill 2. If Lewis and Wallner bounce back and Keaschall maintains, there's your 4th, 5th, and 6th bats (not lineup order, just quality bats) for those 3 years and you have a legitimate, playoff quality offense before you even have to start thinking about the guys still in the minors. I traded Ryan or Lopez (whoever they want) to Boston for Abreu and a prospect or 2. The other pitcher went for whatever the highest upside prospect or 2 I could get was. Not predicting who, just the player or 2 with the highest ceiling. Needed to free money for my bats. I would utilize a lot more multi-inning arms out of the pen. Festa, Prielipp, Raya, Morris types who can do that 3 or 4 innings every 4 days strategy. That leaves 4 other spots in the pen for 1 inning guys. The pitching is very likely a problem in 2026, but the hope is to get enough of the young(ish) arms experience and be better in the 2nd half than the first with some real signs of a pitching staff emerging. This is obviously a completely unrealistic idea as the Twins aren't going to sign either Bo or Josh, and certainly not both. But it's what I sure wish they'd do. It would essentially be expecting a reset of the payroll to this 110 mark with increases moving forward. Not huge jumps, but enough to cover the arb deals of the players that show they're worth it with Naylor and Buxton's deals coming off in 3 and 4 years to help cover even more. The obvious flaw in this dream is the pitching is now almost entirely reliant on developing arms. I'd trade Ober after the season, too. C: Victor Caratini ($7M) 1B: Josh Naylor ($23M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Bo Bichette ($26.5M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($.8M) 4th OF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.80M) Utility: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) Utility: Ryan Fitzgerald ($0.80M) Backup C: Jhonny Pereda ($.8M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Bailey Ober ($4.6M) SP2: Simeon Woods Richardson ($.8M) SP3: Zebby Matthews ($.8M) SP4: Mick Abel ($0.80M) SP5: Taj Bradley ($0.80M) RP: David Festa ($.8M) RP: Connor Preilipp ($0.80M) RP: Marco Raya ($1.30M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Pierson Ohl ($0.80M) RP: Travis Adams ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 13.09% under budget

That's great. He isn't going to do that in the majors. Neither is Fedko. Here is the list of every major league baseball player to reach 20 HRs and 20 SBs last year. All of them. The complete and total list. It's 24 guys. In all of baseball. Kyler Fedko and Kala'i Rosario are not even touching this caliber of player. Rosario was in this same type of article last year. While he was in AA just like he was this year. Nobody picked him last year and nobody is going to pick him this year. If those guys were 20/20, let alone 25/35, threats in the majors they'd be there already. They aren't.

Kala'i is not going to steal bases like that in the majors. He isn't that fast. Julien had a season in the minors where he stole 34 bags. Minor league stolen base numbers are not telling of base stealing ability or speed unless you're talking about the guys stealing 70-100+. It's mostly just about going a lot because pitchers don't know how to hold runners and many of the catchers aren't good enough to throw guys out. But that isn't really the point, the point is that neither Rosario nor Fedko are actually likely to get taken or be kept all season. But I'll take the way under on any MLB season where Kala'i Rosario and Kyler Fedko combine for 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases no matter what team(s) they're on. These guys just aren't those kinds of prosects.

Ah, yes, the Rule 5 draft. The most freaked out over for no reason part of the offseason. The Twins aren't losing any players to the Rule 5 draft. Kyler Fedko was the 32nd best hitter in AAA between 24 and 26 years old with at least 100 PAs. Every team has one of him. 10-15 guys get taken in the Rule 5 and there's rarely ever more than 3 or 4 that actually stick with the selecting team. Do the exercise in reverse. If you're looking at the Twins bad MLB roster and thinking of who they should be grabbing in the Rule 5, are you hoping for Kyler Fedko or Kala'i Rosario? I'm certainly not. Just look at who people were worried about losing last year. Ricardo Olivar was on the list then, too. So was Rosario. Neither of them made it past the level they were at (AA) when people were worried about them in 2024. MacLeod also on that list. Rubel Cespedes, Will Holland, and Noah Cardenas also made Nick's article. Patrick Winkel, Jovani Moran, and Jaylen Nowlin were other names brought up in the comments section that people feared may get taken. Raya and Adams were protected. Anybody thrilled with them saving those 2 at this point? Possibly serviceable relievers, but certainly not anybody folks around here are overly excited about. Shoot, Adams' name is being listed as a guy to waive to protect the next Adams. The level of prospect we're talking about is simply not worth worrying about. Especially on the position player side. But we'll continue to do it every year.

If you just want to compare their minor league lines, Walls had an OPS of .881 in AAA. .824 in AA, .756 in A+ ball, and .821 in A. Noah Miller has never topped .657 at any level of the minors. He had a .657 at A+ ball. And I was actually wrong about his AAA OPS, I looked at his total season OPS from last year. His AAA OPS was .612. He was .603 in AA, the .657 at A+, and .627 in A ball. Take what you will from those numbers.

Ryan Fitzgerald is a better option than Noah Miller. Noah put up a .664 OPS in AAA. He'd hit worse than Vazquez in the majors. Fitzgerald can field the position if that's all you care about. Noah Miller would be the worst hitter in the majors if you tried to call him up. By far, probably. Edited to add: Sorry, his OPS in AAA was actually .612. I looked at the wrong line.

561 PAs of extra confirmation that he was below average. They didn't foresee the swing and approach changes JD could/would make. He wasn't going to do that during 2013. That's not even up for debate because he played every day for them from April through September other than the month+ he was hurt. The extra PAs in 2012 when he was sent down wasn't going to change their minds. Your other argument was "I don't think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week" when it comes to Altuve going from an 89 OPS+ in 2013 to a 135 OPS+ in 2014. Well JD went from a 79 OPS+ in 2013 to a 154 OPS+ in 2014. How does that equal the extra playing time being key to development? Altuve got an extra season's worth of PAs and JD still out hit him by 82 points of OPS in 2014.

If we're just talking 3 hole it's a little difficult to predict because some of it will come down to the makeup of the rest of the lineup. Righty-Lefty alternating spots can effect who they put 2 vs 3, as an example. If Keaschall, Jenkins, and Lewis are their best hitters in 2027 or 2028 that may lead to a different 3-hole hitter than if it's Jenkins, Tait, and Gonzalez. I'm not so worried about the 3-hole specifically as I am being able to get 5 legitimate MLB top of the lineup hitters in place. It's been their struggle for a very long time. Kepler types having to hit in the top 5 of the order instead of the bottom 4 is why they've struggled. The order they end up in doesn't concern me nearly as much as having guys legitimately worthy of hitting at the top of an MLB lineup every day.

JD had an 88 OPS+ after 3 years. What's the difference between him and Altuve? I can't imagine that Altuve being 5 points higher was the determining factor. They had 2 guys performing below league average after 2.5 years. They were right on Altuve getting better and wrong on JD. JD was playing every day in 2012, like Altuve, but had a .681 OPS after August 9th and got demoted, then missed a month with an injury his 3rd year and was actually dropped before he hit arbitration. His first year with Detroit he was still on a league min deal as a pre-arb player because his first year in the majors was only half a year. They simply got JD wrong. He changed his swing and approach when he went to Detroit and blew up. But the Astros had another year of control on him before arbitration and simply had determined he wasn't going to cut it.

Oh, I didn't mean you were saying that I meant just posters in general. I don't have opinions on any of the hires or fires they make beyond generally not blaming them for the results on the field. The players they've been given are flawed players. The coaches couldn't make me into a major leaguer because I don't have the physical skills. Even major leaguers have a lack of skill in some area or another (other than Trout types). I don't know if Shelton will be good. I don't know if LaTroy will be good. None of us do. Any opinions on them are based on pure and utter conjecture with no real way of knowing. I fully accept that every team has coaches poached or be hired after they're fired. I'm not suggesting the Twins are special in that way. Simply that it flies in the face of reason for posters so suggest the Twins staff is incompetent when they're being constantly hired by other teams. The FO and players are to blame for the Twins struggles. And the Pohlads, but we don't need to go down that road again around here.

Sure, but the idea that the coaches are all incompetent fools who have been holding the Twins players back because they're not good at their jobs sure doesn't seem to be supported by the fact that many other teams want our coaches. If they were so obviously the reason the Twins struggled, why would other teams want them? Many posters around here have been blaming the hitting coaches, pitching coaches, minor league coaches, and any other coach they could think of for the struggles of Twins players. There's posts on this very thread about Tingler not being good and being no real loss. If these stances are true, why would other teams continue to take our coaches? Why would the Giants have hired Tingler for the same job he had here if he was incompetent? Isn't the more likely answer that the Twins coaches aren't incompetent and the expectation that they can turn players into more than their physical capabilities will allow is really the problem?

You are provably wrong on Miranda. Miranda's OPS in June of '24 was .939. His OPS in July was 1.111. He absolutely, positively, unquestionably did not start slumping in May. As jmlease said, he was having the best stretch of his career while you claim he was suffering from overuse by having to play 3B. He didn't struggle until he got hit in the head by a baseball. And he's never bounced back. Your theory on playing 3B ruining him isn't based on any actual evidence. In fact, the evidence is incredibly strong that it had no negative effect whatsoever on him as he was having the best stretch of his career while doing it. Keaschall was never 100% back from the TJS during the season, that's why he didn't play any OF. Miranda was 100% healed from his. They are 2 completely different situations. In fact, Keaschall not playing the OF is actually proof that you're wrong about the Twins not caring about people's injuries and rehabs when it comes to where they play. Kirilloff has a genetic disorder. Again, you're just making stuff up. It wasn't a sudden incident that ended his career because that's not how chronic genetic disorders work. Playing 1B wouldn't have saved him. He'd already had a bone in his wrist surgically shortened and has a genetic disorder that leads to chronic spinal fractures and slipped disks. Swinging was far more to blame than any position he played. The Twins know every player in their entire organization is playing through something by May. This idea that guys aren't playing through things constantly and you can/should only play guys when they are 100% is nonsense. It has no place in professional sports. No team in any sport runs that way because none of them would ever have a roster because all of their players are playing through something all the time. You can't just put them all at 1B and save their careers. That isn't reality. And your facts on Miranda and Kirilloff are sorely lacking.

If we're being realistic about the types of FAs they can bring in, then there's no position that should be replaced by a FA. If they were looking at the Tucker/Bichette/Alonzo levels of free agents then any position should be replaced by a FA. There's no prospect in our system that should get priority over Tucker in the OF or Bichette in the IF. None. And there never will be. Those are stars in their prime. If they could get those guys they should. But they can't/won't. There's no free agent in the 1-year, cheap deal category that should get priority over any prospect in our system. Those guys have no future here and next year is (in my opinion) about setting the team up for the future. So, they shouldn't bring in any of those guys. Even if it means losing 130 games. If you can get a FA that can help in 2027 and beyond, bring them in. If you can't, don't.

I'm not sure what fans would have had them do differently. You can't count on him in the majors next year, even if it is a rebuilding year. He was bad in AAA. Like really, really bad. He's out of options so he either makes your team out of spring or you DFA him then and have him pout in AAA for another season. He got 1100 PAs with the Twins. He's one of the young guys I actually wouldn't complain about when it comes to the opportunity they gave him to take a spot and run with it (outside of not calling him up at the end of a lost 2021). Injuries crushed him a couple times, and it may very well be the ball to the head that ruined last year, too. But I don't know how you can carry him all offseason when he has no options left. So, I don't know what fans would have them do differently at this point. He had 2 seasons of nice performance overall, but quite streaky during them. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he can provide a league average bat for another squad. But, as you said, his lack of defense doesn't make that a great player to have around. He "figured it out" here in the sense that he had 2 seasons of roughly 15% above average performance with the bat. If he's suddenly putting up Rooker style 60% above average numbers he needs to be tested for PEDs. But him putting up 120ish numbers like Rooker last year wouldn't be him figuring out anything he didn't figure out here because he was already pretty darn close to that twice. I just don't see anything with him to freak out about. Even a little. He got his shot every time he was healthy, is out of options, and was unplayable at AAA while pouting. Not sure what anyone would do differently if they're looking at things realistically as the FO making 40-man decisions right now. He had a 49 wRC+ in AAA last year. That's Vazquez level hitting in AAA instead of the majors. For a guy without options that's a death blow to your time with any team.

Alex Kirilloff had a chronic stress fracture and slipping vertebra. I will bet every dollar I have for the rest of my life that Jose Miranda didn't have that. For what it's worth, it was listed as a back sprain when he went on the IL. And, as someone who's had spine surgery because of similar chronic problems to Kirilloff, the idea that the Twins managed him into that problem is, as you state, flat-out ridiculous. 1B is not some miracle position that saves injuries. The stress on the lower body is not significantly different when playing 2B instead of SS (all the same actions are required). The Twins give their players far more rest days than the average MLB team. They sit players for all kinds of things that other teams wouldn't. They only play their catchers in a 50/50 split to avoid injuries and wearing down. The idea that the Twins have managed any player into an injury or reduction of performance is one of the most wild stances on this site. They're pro athletes. There's no such thing as being 100% after about the 3rd game of the season.

This is why I'd be surprised if he comes back on a minor league deal as some have suggested. I think he needs out of the Twins system for his own sake. He clearly has bat to ball skills so it's entirely possible he figures it out somewhere else (and fans freak out), but he was not happy in St Paul and the Twins don't need that kind of attitude there next year. I was also surprised they didn't release him earlier because of that.

Don't want to derail this thread about coaches into a talk about Clemens, but, FYI, Clemens is a lefty only and is completely and utterly useless against lefties.

The Dodgers traded Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields. The Tigers dropped Willi Castro for nothing. Harrison Bader is a former waived player that had the best offensive season of his career with the Twins this year. Carlos Santana was picked up for nothing last year and had his best offensive season of the 2020s with the Twins. There's fans who are excited about Kody Clemens and think he's a legit MLBer (I'm not one of them) after the Twins claimed him from the Phillies this year. MAT had a career year here. You can play this game with every team. Especially with relievers. Every team has bullpen guys they rely on that were waiver claims and have waived guys that other teams pick up and turn into something. The Twins aren't alone here. You can find guys traded or waived by every team that succeed elsewhere. I put it very much in the "talent identification problem" bucket. The Ronny decision didn't make sense to me at the time and really looks bad now. My 2 biggest complaints about the Twins are that they are way too fixated on platooning and that they are not good at giving their young guys opportunities to show what they can do before they get to a point where they need to make roster decisions on them. Every team misses on guys. All of them. Rooker went to 2 other teams before he blew up with the As. Every team misses. A lot. The only way we can tell if the league thinks our coaches know what they're doing is if they steal them from us or hire them after we let them go. And the league is doing that. A lot. It's a front office problem. I never said the FO wasn't to blame, I said the coaches.

Tingler, Rowson, Hefner, Popkins, Alston, Swanson, Day. I'm sure there's quite a few more. Twins coaches poached or immediately hired by other teams after being let go by the Twins. I don't think the coaches are the problem. Or at least the rest of the league doesn't think so. Shoot, Rocco was interviewing for at least 1 other manager position immediately after being fired. The Twins lack talent. It's never been the coaches, it's been the players. Or so it seems pretty obvious the league is telling us by constantly poaching or immediately hiring the Twins coaches.

Yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree. And this is why. They believed in Martin at SS, too. Winokur actually looks pretty good there to me, so I have no problem with them keeping him there until it's necessary to move (and that's when he's on the Twins with a better SS in place). You're limiting SS to mean just SS but listing OF as a group of 3 positions. Why can't Culpepper and Houston just be labeled as IFers? Or athletes? I bet Culpepper could play a corner OF spot. They could definitely all move to another IF spot without any problem. Culpepper has always been viewed as a better option at 3B. What if he's at SS and Houston works out? Houston is the better defender so is Culpepper just moved to the bench in 2 years or do they figure out how to play them both? Jenkins, Emma, GG, Mendez, Roden, Wallner, Buxton, Martin, Winokur if you prefer him there, maybe Keaschall if he can't figure out 2B better. How many outfielders do they need to have that they believe in before we don't need anymore OFers? I just listed 10. May be able to add Rosario and Fedko to the list, too. They appear to believe in those guys. Eeles may be best served in LF. I'll take the under on 3 of the non-Buxtons being difference makers. So, sure, I'd take a difference making OFer, too. But Arizona believed in Lawler and now he's a CFer. The Padres believed in Tatis Jr and now he's a RFer. They also believed in Jackson Merrill and now he's a CFer. The Red Sox believed in Rafaela and now he's a CFer. The Red Sox believed in Mookie back in the day and he became an all-world RFer before moving back to the IF with the Dodgers. They absolutely need catchers, but I'm not trading my best trade piece for a guy that won't play more than 60% of the time and is incredibly unlikely to be an impact offensive player. They're not likely to get the next Cal Raleigh with a trade for a catcher. They need an impact player back for Ryan. Preferably 2. If they get the #1 pick should they not take Roch because he's a SS? I just don't get the argument. Get good players. Get good athletes. The idea that they have too many players at any position will never make sense to me. When, in the history of baseball, has any team had too many good players that they just couldn't find places for them all? The Padres used to start 6 former SSs in the same lineup. The Twins have a long ways to go before they reach that level of SS talent. But reasonable minds have disagreed on more serious things than the Twins SS situation.

Hey, I'd take Corey Seager! But I'm all for acquiring talent. There's no such thing as a log jam. Especially at SS. The Padres ran out lineups that included 6 guys who came up as SSs through the minors (or foreign pro leagues). Profar in left, Merrill in center, Tatis Jr in right, with Machado, Kim, and Bogaerts across the infield. I wouldn't care if Jenkins, Emma, GG, Culpepper, Houston, and Tait were all shortstops. Give me another one. If they get the #1 pick, draft Roch. Just get athletic talent and figure it out from there.

I believe what he said is "a young SS to compete with Lee." Colt Emerson, JJ Wetherholt, Sebastian Walcott, Ceddanne Rafaela or Marcelo Mayer if we're going with the Ryan to the Red Sox idea, Aidan Miller, Carson Williams, Alex Freeland. All MLB ready prospects who would/could compete with Lee for SS to start next year. Would any of them be available for Ryan? I don't know. But why not ask? The same argument can be made for OFers. Just get more and figure it out. Would you pass on Carson Benge because they have Jenkins and Emma and GG? Or pitching. They have Bradley, Matthews, Festa, Abel, etc. so they should pass on Tong or Tolle or Sproat? The idea remains, don't pass on the top talent because you have hope other guys will be good. I won't speak for @Riverbrian but I'm quite positive he isn't talking about another Kyle Farmer. He's pretty strong on not doing 1-year deals for vets. But adding another young, MLB ready SS sounds smart to me.

There's no such thing as having too many players at any position, especially SS. We've been hearing how they have too many lefty corner outfielders for years; I don't see a single one. But they couldn't bring in someone else because they had Larnach and Wallner (I believe in the bat, just preferably at DH). They believed in Julien enough to trade Polanco. Miranda enough to try Lewis at 2B. Kirilloff enough to never get a long-term 1B. Lee has been used as an example of a reason the Twins didn't need to sign Correa or another reason to push Lewis off 3B. If they could bring in Bo Bichette (clearly an exaggerated example), you wouldn't do it because of Culpepper and Houston? The Twins need talent. Get talent. Up the middle talent preferably and then move them around. The Padres had a young MVP candidate at SS and have proceeded to move him to RF while bringing in 4 other shortstops and moving their next young phenom to CF (a position he'd never played) for his MLB debut. Culpepper and Houston both reaching their ceiling after having filled SS with another guy who is legitimately good would be a great problem to have. Get up the middle athletes who have real talent and figure it out from there. The Twins need Culpepper, GG, Jenkins, etc. to be good to have any shot in the next few years, but they shouldn't assume they will be. Especially not if they can get a true difference maker back for Ryan. Get the best baseball player you can for him and figure it out from there.

1. I don't believe they can get anything back for Larnach. Nick Gordon made 900k for the Marlins, Larnach is going to cost somebody somewhere around 5 million. The Twins tried the "tender and trade" bit with Farmer in a similar price range and couldn't deal him. Larnach has no excess value and I don't believe they can get anything back for him. 2. Ober is tough because of his down/injured year this year but is still a pitcher who has shown legit middle of the rotation ability. I think a young catcher is a nice target for him, and maybe Chicago would have interest, but it's really hard to know what he'll be worth on the trade market this year. 3. My guess is Wallner is more valuable as a bounce back candidate with the Twins than on the open market. As always, the Twins should be listening on him and everyone else in case somebody brings them a great deal, but I'd guess they get a bunch of calls on him from teams trying to buy low. If that's all you get he's better used here to see if he can get back to 23/24 performance. 4. Lee has never had the upside people tried to put on him. He can be better than this, but he's never going to be a legit starting SS in the majors. Never was. It's getting harder to see his ceiling as being anything above utility IFer at this point. The time to trade him was when he was still in AAA. Teams see the lack of athleticism, back struggles, and limited ceiling now. Lewis is much like Wallner in that his value is probably higher as a bounce back candidate. If the team was in better position to compete the calculus would be different, but with the shape of the team now there's plenty of ABs to give to a guy with his ceiling. If he doesn't bounce back he's probably non-tendered next year. But I don't think you can get a reasonable return for a guy who can be a star if he gets himself right. Trading guys with Wallner and Lewis' ceilings after down years is bad roster management. Always listen, but I doubt they get anything worthwhile on them. Ober is an interesting trade piece because when he was healthy he did show he's still the same guy, and pitching is always worth more. You'd still be trading low so he's probably a better option for a trade deadline deal. Any real difference making trade would have to include one of Lopez, Ryan, or Buxton, in my opinion. Jeffers being a step below them. They've put themselves in a really interesting and tough position. Will be an intereseting offseason to follow.