chpettit19

Just an FYI, but his chase rate has actually gotten worse. He's chasing more this year than he did last year. Difference is that he's swinging more in general and making more contact. He hasn't actually adjusted his approach in any meaningful way.

Joe Ryan is leaving the MN Twins. It's happening sometime in the next year and a half. This team isn't good enough to contend as currently constructed. Nobody other than us baseball nerds are paying attention as is. The Twins have already made him an offer. Dan Hayes reported his demands were 7 years/210 million. The Twins can already make that pitch to fans. But the casual baseball fans don't care about it anyways. Nobody has ever cared. That's one of the Twins biggest struggles is thinking that "hey, we tried really hard to spend money but the player just didn't want it" works. Nobody cares. Either you sign him or you don't. That's it. There is no try. He'll just be another cheap Pohlad no matter when Joe Ryan leaves. Trading him now when fan morale is already tanked is the best business decision he can make. It gives them the best chance to actually do what fans care about and that's build a winner. The team can't even get above .500 and you think fans are going to turn out next year because Tom didn't trade Joe until the offseason? Trading him in the offseason just makes it all the more fresh and stretches out the pain. They should've finished the sell off over the offseason and not put themselves in the situation to lose Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers all over the next 2 seasons and give the fans more opportunity to say "cheap Pohlads." You don't get any slack for a team that's below .500 that you're not investing in. There is no casual fan who believes the Twins sitting below .500 are some "win now" team. Trading Jeffers now, Joe in the offseason, and losing Lopez at the deadline or offseason next year just stretches out the bad PR for another year and a half. There is no business upside in keeping Joe Ryan for 10 more starts that I can see. None. I see only downside. You want to start getting fans back? Get them excited for the future. No casual fan is investing in this team. But you move your vets with no future with the team and bring up the youth who you can sell as the future? That's the business move. Should've been done in the offseason, but Tom already screwed the PR situation up by making awful promises about competing this year. The move that can actually bring fans is showing them Jenkins, Culpepper, Mendez, Gonzalez, and the rest of the young guys. Trade Joe to add to the future. Holding him doesn't save any bad PR at all. It just stretches it out for a team with no chance to win and that no casual fan looks at in the standings and says "well, dang, Tom didn't let them trade Joe so now I see how hard they're trying to win even though they're a below .500 team."

I would add Tampa to this list.

Oh, I wouldn't bet on it, but it only takes 1 and he'll be asking for 7 still probably. I'd say the most likely deal is 4 years, followed by 5, then 6. AAV going down as years go up. That'd be my strategy if I were his agent, at least. And if there's a team looking to save on the AAV, he may talk them into that last year. But, no, I wouldn't bet on that and would be impressed if the agent can pull it off.

I don't know who all he'll be up against on the market, but I'd put the range from 4 to 6 years and 20 to 25 per year.

I wouldn't touch that contract for him. Would end up awful for the Twins. If those are truly the numbers he gave the Twins, they need to trade him now as he has no intention of staying here and a comp pick after another .500ish season next year would be awful asset management.

Why do you think they haven't? Joe Ryan has a mutual option for 2027. Those are essentially never picked up, but that isn't the point. The point is that Joe Ryan and the MN Twins discussed his future with the team last offseason. They had to in order to do that option in his current deal. Why would you assume they didn't also discuss 2028 and beyond? Dan Hayes has reported that the number the Twins were given is 7 years and $210 million to sign him. Sure sounds like they "showed some stones."

I don't buy this argument at all. What business reason is there for keeping him? Fan morale? Loss of ticket sales after trading him? Why is that any different than trading him in the offseason? What is the business benefit of holding Joe Ryan in a season you're already looking to set the all time low ticket sale record for Target Field and can't get or stay above .500? You're taking the business hit now, in the offseason, at next deadline, or next offseason. The business hit is coming in every scenario that doesn't include a Joe Ryan extension. What is the benefit of having that hit later vs now?

That would be intriguing. The deal I keep going to is Caminiti and Hartman from Atlanta.

I'd be awfully shocked if the Twins were able to pry away the best prospect in baseball. I think Luis Pena, Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara, or Jett Williams are the far more likely options as best player available from the Brewers. And Pena may be "untouchable" as well.

Why would a team trading for Joe Ryan give up an established mid-rotation MLB pitcher? They're trading for Joe to make, and win in, the playoffs. They're not trading an established rotation piece to do that. It'd be a nonstarter and is a completely unrealistic ask.

Yeah, I'm just not a believer in Jeffers and the QO. I want no part of paying him $23 million. If they don't trade him and Ryan before the deadline, I'm going to be pretty disappointed and not impressed with Tom's start.

I'm really not worried at all what it'd say about the franchise long-term. But I also don't think they're trading Bell or Larnach or anyone like that. Because I don't think you can actually get anything for them. Trading Ryan and Jeffers would actually make me more hopeful about the future (depending on the return). What concerns me more is not selling at all. Especially Jeffers. That'd make it really hard to convince me that this Pohlad isn't just as terrible at being an owner as the rest.

Totally get it. I just don't think they've been a franchise that always sells. They sold last year. Their problem is they are either a sell or do nothing franchise. They did a mini sell to get Ryan in the first place. But outside that, they really haven't done anything like a true selling team would do outside of last year. My argument would be that they should've finished that job during the offseason instead of playing the middle ground of trying to win now and rebuild when their chances of winning now are miniscule.

The "what ifs" absolutely go both ways. That's my point. Both sides need to be taken into consideration. That is not what most comments are, though. Most comments say things like "we can trade him later if we need." But that isn't a guarantee. The calculation is taking all the "what ifs" from both sides and deciding how likely each is and then weighing those and making a decision. The Twins haven't been sellers every year. Their problem has been that they've been "sit by and do nothing" most years. They had a window open and they sat around and did nothing for back-to-back deadlines and then an entire offseason after winning a playoff series. If the Twins do their math and decide they're likely to be a "90+ win squad that has a decent chance to come out of the AL" they should absolutely not trade Joe Ryan. And they should also get new equations. Because that isn't a likely outcome without significant changes to this roster. Beyond just hoping the prospects all hit the ground running full speed. You kind of make that argument when you ask about keeping Duran and Varland meaning the Twins are 5 games better. Sorry, but 1 game above .500 in late July wouldn't have me hollering for a "big SP move." It'd have me saying the Twins should now trade Ryan, Jeffers, and Duran. For likely less than we got for Duran last year which hurts our chances to build that 90+ win squad in the future. If you, or anyone else, sees a 90+ win Twins team next year without making some major moves, more power to you. I find that incredibly hard to believe.

What if the new CBA makes Joe Ryan a free agent the second it's signed? What if Joe Ryan simply wants to go back to California and isn't interested in staying here no matter what the salary floor is? The Twins already talked to Joe Ryan about 2027. He has an option for next year that was agreed to when he signed his deal for this year. I guess it's possible 2028 and beyond was never even mentioned when talking about 2027, but that feels unlikely. Dan Hayes reported that Joe Ryan was looking for 7 years, 210 million to sign an extension. If the owners don't get their way on a cap, Joe isn't staying here. If the owners do get their way with a cap, it's still very possible that Joe isn't staying here. The point is that there's very real risk in not trading Joe Ryan before the deadline. If Joe's afraid there's going to be a drastic change in the CBA that will cost him money with his next deal, he's going to be the one driving extension talks right now. The odds of Joe signing an extension just because there's a new CBA in place are very low, in my opinion. If he won't sign for less than 7, 210 now, I find it very unlikely that he's willing to sign for less than that in the offseason.

If the argument is "don't trade him now unless you can get X in return" then it absolutely needs to be part of the equation. The risk of losing a player (won't have him for the playoffs, may not get a player as good as him back, etc.) are always mentioned. A large part of the argument for not trading him is that you can do it later. Well, what if you can't? That needs to be part of the equation. And there is a history with Joe Ryan. He never finishes seasons strong. Ever. His value is going to take a hit automatically due to the control being less. But if he has his typical 2nd half performance, it's going to tank even more. There is very real risk in holding Joe Ryan. See Lopez, Pablo for example. And the idea that you need to get prospect X now or he's not worth trading just doesn't make sense, because if you can't get them now, you're not getting them with less control of Ryan.

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

"he knows they want to see ownership fully commit to building a sustainable winner." If Pohlad knows that, then the right thing to do for that goal is to trade Ryan before 5 PM CT on August 3, 2026. The Ohtani game was going to sell well whether Ryan was starting that game or not. That argument does nothing for me. I'm not going to take the time to analyze whether or not the Twins sell notably more tickets on Ryan start days, but that'd have been the data to provide in this article if you're trying to make the "he sells tickets" argument. Show us that he sells tickets. I'd bet Ryan start days don't have significantly more ticket sales than any other rotation spot. The mistake the Pohlads made (and Tom has at least said the words he should about it) was cutting payroll after the playoff series win. This isn't that. The team is below .500, it's the only reason we're talking about the idea of selling pieces. You earn the fans back by building a sustainable winner. And trading Joe Ryan is the best chip they have left in that regard. He's not likely to sign an extension here before he hits free agency. So, you're losing him within the next 1.5 years. You think the PR hit is worse now when you're already not selling tickets or at the end of next season when he walks for nothing and the "cheap Pohlad" screams reach peak levels and then you didn't get anything for him anyways? The argument for "goes beyond the field" is still in favor of trading him now. Take the PR hit when you're already down. Don't start climbing out and then take the PR hit. There's no way their business team is making any realistic pitch that they expect to see a massive spike in attendance next year. No way should Pohlad believe that. They spent way too long believing DSP when he tried to shovel that crap. Build an actual, true, winner and the fans will start to return. If you can extend Ryan, great, do it, that'll be a huge help in the PR department. I believe there's about a 1% chance of that happening. So trade him. Now. Before the deadline. Take your mini PR hit (they don't have enough fans who care at this point for it to be a massive PR hit) now and build your way back up with the best chance possible at building something sustainable and more than "hey, we may be .500 this year, so come see us!" Trade Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers.

Totally with you. I'd bet there's a week where he plays a corner 4 or 5 times and he's up the next week. Or maybe it'll be like a 2-week stretch. But, barring injury, there'll be a very clear sign he's on the way when he starts playing in a corner.

Yeah, sorry, no interest in giving up so many possible future pieces for a shot in 2026 and 2027. None whatsoever. The only buying the Twins should do this year is trading guys like DeBarge for reliever help. Guys with near 0% chances of being real MLB pieces. Gunnar Henderson is an interesting buy low piece, but the Orioles have no reason to move him. No interest in any of the other guys here. I have very real concerns that Pohlad may push the FO into something resembling this kind of plan, but I'm very much hoping they stay away from selling any of the future for trying to make a run at .500 this year. Trade Ryan and Jeffers and build for 2027 and beyond.

I don't think Jenkins has kicked the proverbial door in, but I think he's getting close to having answered every question he can at AAA. In watching him play, he looks like he could hold his own in the majors. But he's not so dominant that I'm in any rush to call him up before the deadline. You're talking 2 weeks. No need to make roster moves to get him here now. I'd give him until I know I won't lose his rookie eligibility to put him in the driver's seat for RoY and an extra pick next year. Mid- to late-August, or a September call-up would be my timeline. If you call him up, it's to play every day. Not DH, but play the field. That means there's 3 spots for him. LF, CF, RF. The Twins currently have Larnach-Martin, Buxton, and Keaschall in those spots. You're not replacing Martin with a lefty hitting Jenkins to be the short side of a platoon with Larnach. You're not replacing Bell on an everyday basis at DH to put Larnach there and get Jenkins every day ABs. There's no easy fit at this point. And if part of your plan to get him playing time in the big picture is to trade Larnach or Bell, you really don't want to bench them in the middle of a huge stretch for your team. Not exactly selling the "he can help you get to, or win in, the playoffs" narrative by benching someone while attempting to get to the playoffs. I see no real reason at all to force Jenkins into a Twins jersey before the deadline. Or even after it if there isn't an injury. Get him a month+ to get his feet wet at the end of the year. That's a plenty reasonable amount of time for a guy who hasn't done anything crazy at AAA, but is clearly a large part of your future and is answering every question in AAA to this point.

Yep, that's what the NFL did. And NHL. The Wild were getting crushed by the new rules until just last year. It's a very real possibility. I'd very much expect the players to make a push for getting paid twice if there's going to be a cap forced on them.

I guess I shouldn't claim to know that for 100%, but spin is a large part of what makes a pitcher's "stuff" so good, right? On a basic level, its spin and velocity. And their stuff always declines with age. My assumption would be that the decline isn't 100% velocity driven.

The best thing we have to predict things off is other leagues implementing caps. None of them had a transition period. Closest thing to one was the NBA grandfathering in veteran deals. But teams over the cap from that couldn't sign free agents. Obviously every league has its own unique set of circumstances, but no league has phased things in or given a multi-year transition period yet. None of us have enough info to make all that great of guesses, so I'm going mostly off the precedent from other leagues.