chpettit19

I'd bet there are more than 3 AAAA in most lineups according to my opinion. But I'm not the one arguing that the 10 guys you listed are a good base for a competitive MLB team. I gave you the numbers. I don't need to see all the lineups. The 10 guys you listed got essentially 80% of the PAs in August and September. My argument is that those 10 guys do not make up a good base for a competitive MLB team. And August and September is a great data set to help prove my point. Could the Twins switch out 5 of those guys for better players and then have a completely different lineup? Absolutely. But I don't expect them to. And I don't think you do either. I hope the Twins bring in a "power bat." But they aren't (weren't) shopping in the Alonzo aisle. They aren't shopping in the Tucker aisle. They're shopping in the Hoskins, Goldschmidt, Lowe aisle. And I don't think that moves the needle at all. Fangraphs says they think this roster could win 82 games next year. I disagree with that whole heartedly. You don't. And that's all good. It's why this site is fun, because we can have these disagreements and talk Twins and baseball in general like we all like to do. I hope you're right in your view. I've been championing the Twins the last several offseasons and believed they were good enough to compete. I was wrong. The roster has only gotten worse in terms of current talent. So now my opinion is that they should blow it up completely and give themselves an improved chance in 2028 and beyond instead of wasting trade value on guys who won't be here when they can truly be competitive. The only arguments I see for the Twins winning 80+ games in 2026 are either the Twins switch out a good half of the current 26-man roster or everybody on it significantly improves their performance. I don't like the odds of either of those things. But I'm happy to be wrong.

No, you showed 14 games worth of lineups. I gave you the entire data set. Why does it matter that you list it as 1 position? They're still 10 of the 13 guys they can roster. Or, if they send Roden down it's to keep Outman who's out of options. And the point remains; you're running back almost the exact same roster as the last 2 months of the season. No, I can't admit that because I've given you the numbers and the lineups won't be significantly different. You're suggesting they add 1 bat. So now you're at 11 of 13 spots filled. The last 2 spots likely go to guys that are already on the 40-man, right? One of those will be Alex Jackson. The last one is likely Kreidler, Outman, Julien, or Fitzgerald, right? That means you've changed 2 position player spots from the end of the season until 2026. The 1 FA bat we have to hope they add and the backup catcher. So, like I said, 90% of why you believe they can win 80ish games is because you simply expect the guys that were already here to play better. And they might. But the odds aren't great. And I'm glad you have hope. I absolutely hope you're right. I just don't see it. "Everybody will just play better" isn't a strategy that gives me the warm and fuzzies. Especially when most of those guys are in their late 20s or 30s.

Your primary lineup was Jeffers, Clemens, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Roden, Larnach, and Martin. The Twins had 2040 PAs from August 1st to the end of the season. Those 10 guys you listed accounted for 1625 of those PAs. That is 79.6% of the total PAs for the last 2 months. Meaning that, on average, there were 1 or 2 lineup spots that didn't go to one of those 10 guys for the last 2 months. You've said you can run 1 bad bat and a max of 2. Well, the Twins gave fewer than 2 lineup spots to players not on your list. Your idea that the Twins were running out 3 or 4 guys a day for the last 2 months that you aren't now claiming can be part of a competitive lineup is wrong. The guys you're now claiming have a shot at competing were the vast majority of the PAs after the deadline.

I agree! The point is that they all included 7 or 8 of the guys you're now claiming are reason to believe this team will be able to contend.

But you're calling Roden and Martin starters this year on a team you believe can contend. You can't claim they were questionable at bats and also that they are part of why we should have hope. I already gave you the numbers. Of the players you've claimed were the problem and won't be getting as many PAs this year, they accounted for 17.4% of the PAs. Trying to cut it down to 1 week and change the argument isn't going to sneak past me. They were 1.5 spots in the lineup.

Good thing the majors don't have 11-12 man lineups because you go on to layout exactly what I just said the Twins had. They had "1 questionable at bat" (according to your professed quality starting lineup) for most of the last 2 months and still couldn't score. The Twins weren't "running 2-3 questionable at bats" according to your professed starting lineup of players they can/should count on. You're making my argument for me. Your post from the draft lottery thread starts out "The team last year with all the players tanked the season. They were a below average team with a winning percentage below .500 at the trade deadline." All the guys you have listed as starters, outside of Roden and Martin, were part of that group that was "below .500 at the trade deadline." They replaced Correa, Bader, and Castro. And Martin was actually one of their best hitters after the deadline so he absolutely wasn't a "questionable at bat." At the end of the day, you are expecting sustained health and performance from Buck, Jeffers, Keaschall, and Martin and improved play from Clemens, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Roden while then also expecting Jenkins, Emma, and Culpepper hit the ground running when they're needed. While also expecting the rotation to stay mostly healthy (a loss of Lopez or Ryan would crush their rotation) and the pen to also have 4-6 guys, minimum, have improved performance or be rookies who step right in and succeed. Your statement about them being under .500 at the deadline should carry more weight in your assessment of the 2026 team, in my opinion. Because you're laying out the majority of that team and then saying that they can/will compete in 2026 even though they didn't in 2025 because they'll bring in Peter Fairbanks, Caleb Thielbar, and Eric Orze to replace Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louie Varland.

The guys you list as starters that you believe are going to lead to the team performing better than August and September had 1585 PAs during that stretch. I think you're significantly overweighing the effect those 335 PAs had on the offense during those months. They were less than 20% (17.4 if you want to get more specific) of the PAs. Which is 1.5 spots in a batting order. Essentially they had useless 8/9 hitters in half the games and a useless 9 hitter the other half. The offense struggled because the guys you're counting on struggled. I can certainly see a path to "solid baseball," but I stick by the idea that it is essentially relying on all those guys you listed as starters hitting their 90th percentile performance and staying healthy. Or all the prospects coming up and being immediate impact players. I think those odds are very low. Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it likely? I don't think so.

I hope they do, but I don't have a strong feeling either way. I believe it's essentially 26 rounds if a team wanted to just keep picking. I don't know that I'd be interested in Noah Miller in general, but if my options are Kreidler or Miller, I'd take Miller simply for the youth and great glove. Overall, I just hope they drop a position player or 2 and grab some interesting arms.

They don't have an open 40-man spot to pick anyone. Do you expect them to DFA somebody this morning?

Who do you anticipate is going to be getting the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning roles to stop this team from blowing so many leads? Who do you anticipate is going to be getting the Gasper, Julien, Outman, and Fitzgerald ABs? Vazquez only had 27 PAs after the deadline, so he played no role in that 57-win pace. Outman and Julien are out of options. Fitzgerald and Kreidler are the only 2 guys on the 40-man capable of being a utility IF who can back up SS. Do you have any reason to anticipate a significant improvement in play from what this team did in August and September that isn't 90% predicated on the current players simply playing better?

Not worried about losing anyone in the Rule 5. Far more interested in the fact that they haven't cleared a single spot to make a selection (yet, to my knowledge). Odds are they wouldn't keep whoever they selected, but it's surprising they don't look at the available names and think any of them have a better chance at succeeding in the majors than about 10 names currently on the 40-man. Yet another reason I hate this plan of trying to compete this year with this collection of players. Drop Ryan freaking Kreidler and take a shot at a young guy who can help in the future. And drop James Outman and take a shot at another young guy who can help in the future. And...

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Have you not been listening? Falvey is educating the new minority owners as we speak on how they aren't throwing anything away and they're right where they want to be. Those trades at the deadline were baseball decisions. All the important people told us so. Have to pay closer attention, Chief!

Yeah, the only thing I took out of that statement is that she doesn't know the specifics of Bryce Eldridge's situation. You have to have good medical professionals in your org doing good physicals and then you just have to trust them. Bryce Miller battled bone spurs last year and came back to pitch very well in the playoffs without surgery then or in the offseason, just treatments to manage it. Carlos Rodon had his surgery in October like Eldridge, and I don't think Yankee fans are hoping they trade the pitcher who made 33 starts with a 3.09 ERA last year while dealing with spurs in his elbow. Caleb Durbin had his surgery in October like Eldridge and I'm betting the Brewers and their fans are excited to have him back at 3B next year. Grayson Rodriguez had his cleanup in August to get rid of his spurs in his elbow and I'm betting the Angels are pretty excited about having him next year considering they just traded Taylor Ward for him. I don't care if he plays RF, 1B, DH, or anywhere else. I agree that the Twins need a bat like he could (hopefully) provide. Let him play RF, 1B, and DH. Rotate through to manage stress if that's a concern the medical people have. If the medicals come back with something showing it's a real, long-term concern (like AK's wrist bone being too long) then stay away. But if they come back as looking like a normal wrist then he's the best prospect I've seen mentioned as a possible trade target if the Twins decide to move Ryan, so I'd take my chances.

He played the entire season with the wrist problem. Is it possible the surgery made it worse? Sure. But I'd guess the odds are quite small. Players have offseason cleanups all the time. I'm far more worried about Festa's shoulder than a guy's wrist who played through the injury all season while putting up impressive enough AAA numbers to debut at the age of 20. There are concerns with every player in professional sports. They all get nicked up. They all play through pain. They're all injury risks. They'd do a physical before the trade is official. If he can pass a physical there's no reason to freak out over anything, in my opinion. You can find reason for concern with every trade target. There's no trade with no risk. But there aren't many prospects of this level that get dealt. If the Twins can pair 21-year-old Bryce Eldridge with 21-year-old Walker Jenkins, I'd jump at the chance. Joe Ryan (likely the piece that'd go the other way) is just as big an injury risk as Eldridge is just by being a pitcher. He hasn't made it through a season with sustained dominance in his entire career. His elbow could explode in his first start. Or his first ST pen session. Do a physical. Pay specific attention to that wrist. If it all looks clear do the trade. Same as every other trade.

Isn't he already healed and back to normal? I believe that's what I saw.

I could get behind this base for a trade. Obviously have to bring Drew Gilbert back home, too. If only to piss off so many fans by adding another lefty outfielder.

Bailey Ober has been better in the 2nd half of seasons than the first half for his career. First Half: .248/.296/.442/.738 slash line against, 4.19 ERA, 1.189 WHIP Second Half: .228/.269/.415/.684 slash line against, 3.94 ERA, 1.039 WHIP He has his lowest OPS against in September in the most starts of any month. Best WHIP and SO/9 as well. He has a 3.58 ERA in September, which, again, is the month he's thrown the most innings in his career. Joe Ryan is who wears down in the second half, not Bailey Ober. The concern with Ober is if he can get that velo back. If it wasn't an injury (I believe it was a hip thing) that was causing that last year, he's toast. If it was an injury and he's fully healthy now, he has a decent enough chance to bounce back next year and rebuild some nice value before the deadline.

I can't imagine Ober's value is super high right now. He's actually a good example of why I'd trade one of Ryan or Lopez now (I don't think they can compete this year even with those 2). All it takes is one injury to tank their value. Lopez's value is probably a little lower than it should be because of his injury last year. If they don't think Ober can get any velo back and his value is never getting higher, then they should trade him this offseason. If he's back to full health and you expect him to be his normal self next year, trading him now would be awful asset management because other teams are going to make you pay for the injury concern. I'd be pretty surprised if they traded any of the "young" guys. Could certainly be some trades to be made that move controllable pitching for controllable hitting, but I don't expect it at this point. The Twins have perceived depth in the rotation but have an entirely empty bullpen. Some of these arms are going to have to help fill that. The Twins do not have an excess of pitching, which is what really matters. Still need to get 27 outs every game. Not just the first 15-18. The Twins are trying to thread an incredibly small needle by trying to contend this year and moving forward. I think it's a mistake, but it's what they appear to be doing. If you move any controllable player at this point, you better be right. Losing any trades of controllable assets at this point would be absolutely devastating to this organization.

If they're not trading Lopez or Ryan then I go with the following plan come opening day: Rotation: Lopez Ryan Ober SWR winner of ST battle between Bradley, Abel, and Zebby Pen: Bradley, Abel, or Zebby for 2-4 innings every 4th day Bradley, Abel, or Zebby for 2-4 innings every 4th day Festa for 2-4 innings every 4th day (assuming health of the shoulder) Sands Topa Funderburk Orze winner of ST battle between Adams and Ohl FA additions in the pen would be nice, but until they actually add legit backend guys I am going with this. When injuries, or poor performance, hit the rotation one of the "bulk" relievers takes that rotation spot and you adjust the pen as needed based on who you call up. If it's Prielipp or Raya they may take the bulk role depending on how they've been pitching in AAA or it could change the pen to just 2 bulk guys and 6 typical 1 inning relievers. But I keep all the hopeful starters in a bulk role to have them sitting down and getting up in games and keep them on a strict between appearance routine because they're most likely going to need 9-12 starters throughout the year and I don't want to have the inexperienced arms bouncing between 1 inning and 5 inning roles.

The Nats have a new FO so comparing older trades to what Paul Toboni does isn't very telling. And picking out just that one trade isn't very useful either. CJ Abrams, James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, and Jarlin Susana all coming back in 1 trade pretty easily cancels out the Ruiz deal. Not to mention that Ruiz was actually pretty good before his concussion problems.

This is a pretty surprising return for Ford. I'd bet there's more than a couple front office heads out there wondering why Ford isn't in their organization now because they felt they had a better offer than that. Feels like a deal that Seattle initiated with Ferrer specifically in mind. Can't imagine they were openly shopping Ford and just looking for the best deal possible and ended up on this before the winter meetings.

I think there's a pretty reasonable argument to be made that signing him in order to trade him at the deadline is a pretty smart move. Essentially buying a prospect for a few mil. If their plan is to run Clemens out at 1B on a very regular basis (and it's what they've suggested the plan is) then I'd very much like to balance him with a legit bat like Andujar. Assuming Andujar performs to norms he'd be able to fetch a top 20 or 25 system prospect from somebody at the deadline. Adding more to the system to continue to improve their odds of being competitive in 3 years sounds smart to me.

It depends on who's pushing for the trade. If the Twins are the ones going to him and saying they need to move him, then absolutely he should do whatever he can to get whatever he can since the Twins would likely just be moving him to save his salary. It wouldn't make sense for them from a team building perspective to force him out knowing he has the power to totally tank his trade value. Getting nothing back for him would defeat any purpose of trading him beyond saving money. I'd argue very strongly that the only way he's being traded is if he demands out. In that case, why would he want to make it harder to trade him? That's why he should care. If he's asking out he should want to make it as easy as possible to trade him since if the Twins don't want to trade him they can force him to stick around for 3 more years.

My guess would be he can return a top 100 guy plus another highly thought of guy that isn't on the top 100. Probably a top 100 guy and somebody in the lower levels. Buxton is clearly talented, but other teams are aware of his injury history and aren't going to just completely ignore that.

My point is simply that I don't see there being more than 1 scenario in which Byron Buxton waives his no trade clause. I don't think he has interest in going after a big pay day and using his NTC to make that happen. I don't think there's a scenario other than him simply deciding the Twins are going full on rebuild, trading Lopez, Ryan, whoever, and the team is going to be an absolute disaster around him. That's my point. If that's the only reason he's leaving then he's not demanding anything, he's just trying to get to a place he's happy to be. My argument is simply that I think if he's waiving his NTC it is telling us that he flat out wants out of Minnesota. I don't think there's any other conversation about it. I don't think the Twins could convince him to be traded if he doesn't want to be. And I don't think they're trying to convince him of that. I'm not trying to predict if he's being traded, if he wants to be traded, where he'd be traded to, or what he'd be traded for with this line of discussion. I am simply saying that I believe that if it comes to the point that Byron Buxton is being traded from the Minnesota Twins it is because he actively wants out and he isn't going to put any contract negotiations in the way of that. I don't believe that he has any desire to use his NTC as leverage for a new deal. I think his only plan with the NTC is to direct where he goes if he ever gets to the point where he's so turned off by this organization that he no longer has any desire to be here.