chpettit19

Tom meant literally big, not metaphorically. Wagaman is 6'4" and Bell is 6'3" and 261 lbs. Our new Pohlad leader believes in building the physically biggest team in MLB history. Expect an extension for Ober any day now.

Don't shortchange them. It's the same plan as the last TWO offseasons.

I don't think they should believe it, but I've said since the deadline that they weren't blowing it up and were trying to win and rebuild at the same time. I think it's an awful strategy, but I think they mean it when they say they think they can compete.

If he blows out his elbow in start #3, I'd bet they don't get a very good return. I don't think holding him is the worst thing any FO has ever done, but it certainly comes with some very real risk. The only reason they should keep him is if they truly believe they have good odds of winning the division. We all have our own opinions on how likely that is. If you believe Falvey's words, I'd bet his opinion of their chances are higher than most fan's.

You keep saying these K numbers are "untenable" over and over and give guys 0% chance to hit in the majors because of it. Have you passed your numbers on to major league teams because they'd love to be able to predict these things with such certainty. I looked (again) at the top 10 wRC+ qualified hitters in MLB last year. 5 of them had K% over 20% in AA. That's half of the 10 best hitters in baseball with K rates over 20% in AA. What's the cutoff? 25%? Cuz 4 of them had K% over 25% in AA. Including some guy named Judge who I believe has a few trophies at his house for his hitting performance in the majors. Now I'm no Rosario believer. Don't think he's anything special by any means. Fedko? Dime a dozen. Everyone has a Fedko in their system. But I'd love to see your numbers that so very clearly state Aaron Judge, George Springer, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, and Michael Busch have no shot at hitting in the majors because of their AA K%. Judge struck out 28.5% in his first go at AAA, too. Then 23.9% in his second. As a college hitter taken in the first round. As a matter of fact, all 5 of those guys were college hitters. Judge pick 32 out of Fresno State, George 11th pick out of UConn, Raleigh 90th overall out of FSU, Schwarber 4th overall out of Indiana, and Busch was pick 31 out of UNC. They had 25, 30.9, 29.6, 20.2, and 26.1 K% in AA. Shoot, Michael Busch had a 26.3% K rate his 2nd go round at AA. Then 26 at AAA in his first crack before cutting it to 18.8% in his 2nd chance there. Schwarber had a 34.3% K rate at AAA. Pete Alonso joins our party with a 25.9% K rate in AAA. George Springer went 30.9% then 29.7% in his two goes at AA, then 24.2% and 24.6% in AAA. The other 4 hitters in the top 10 were Ohtani who obviously never played in the minors, but his K% in Japan was 27, Juan Soto who essentially completely skipped the upper minors (35 AA PAs at 20% K rate if you care), Ketel Marte who had K rates in the mid-teens and fit your model, and Freddie Freman who was about 12 and 16% for AA and AAA and also passes your K rate test. But, in summary, Judge, Ohtani, Springer, Raleigh, Schwarber, Alonso, and Busch were 7 of the 10 best hitters in Major League Baseball last year (according to wRC+) and they all had K rates well over 20% at either AA or AAA. Predicting major league success is so much more complicated than you continue to suggest it is. It's why you can't just scout on the numbers. You need way more info than that. Either that or you pass up on a huge number of the elite hitters in baseball.

I'd certainly enjoy it if they tested this hypothesis...

Wilyer is a more consistent bat than Duran. Wilyer had OPS+ marks of 118 and 116 in his 2 full seasons. In Duran's 3 full seasons his were 121, 132, and 114. Duran has shown a higher ceiling over a full season, but Wilyer has been more consistent. Career OPS+: Wilyer- 118, Duran- 114.

And they've all moved positions during their careers. Everyone who wasn't a catcher or 1B has moved positions. All of their regulars. Every. Single. One. Actually, Muncy moved UP the defensive spectrum from 1B to 2B and then over to 3B. The healthy Twins had Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, France at 1B, Buxton in CF, and Wallner in RF. Which matches the Dodgers having Muncy at 3B, Betts at SS, Freeman at 1B, Conforto in LF, and Teoscar in RF. Again, the Twins weren't doing anything different than the Dodgers. Like NYCTK says, they're just asking their baseball players to play baseball. And, actually, you're the one who's taking things out of context. This article isn't about 2026 alone, it's about "the next wave." It's about the bigger picture of how this team could look in the future. You've changed that to be just about Falvey saying they're going to get Keaschall in the outfield some this year. But the article is about them learning who their best players are and coming up with the best positioning from there. It's why I said it isn't some crazy idea they came up with. It's what every team does. The Twins are going to start the season with Lee and Keaschall up the middle (assuming health). If Keaschall goes down and Culpepper is the best player in the entirety of AAA, should they not call Culpepper up because he's a SS and not a 2B? Should they not put him or Lee at 2B? Every team would adjust and move one of those guys to 2B. That is what this article is saying. They have some infield talent and they'll get them organized as needed to put their best lineup out there.

Freeman is already at the bottom of the spectrum. Has been his whole career. There's nowhere else to move him. Teoscar has played both corner spots just like Wallner and Larnach. Max Muncy has player 1B, 2B, and 3B for the Los Angeles Dodgers. They have been moving guys forever. Every team does. I wish the Twins had players of their caliber, that part I agree with. Mauer and Morneau were a catcher and 1B, though. Not great examples. Kepler played other OF positions. The Twins had regulars at 1B, SS, 3B, CF, and RF last year when healthy. France, Correa, Lewis, Buxton, and Wallner only played 1 position for the Twins. The Twins aren't doing anything crazy. They just lack talent compared to other teams. Eddie Julien isn't a bad defender because they tried him at multiple positions, they tried him at multiple positions because he's a bad defender. But plenty of guys move spots when they debut. Every team makes adjustments season to season and game to game to get their best 9 out there as often as possible.

And Derek Jeter has a handful. That's not a useful metric either. Ty France won his because of algorithms. Voters use those way too much now. Ty France didn't suddenly become better at catching the ball at age 30 because of some sweet trick the Twins used at his 1 spring training with them. If you believe that, you believe the Twins are just refusing to use that trick with the rest of their team.

Just conveniently ignored that they've all moved positions multiple times in their careers outside of Freeman and Smith? The Twins have bad defenders. That is the problem. This article suggests Keaschall can play outfield, otherwise it's about Lee and Culpepper playing other IF spots, just like every other team does. There is no team anywhere in major league baseball that trains players at 1 spot their entire careers and never asks anyone to move. It's an absolutely ridiculous idea. And I'll note the Twins had Correa as a fulltime SS, Lewis as a fulltime 3B, Wallner as a fulltime RF, Buxton as a fulltime CF, and France as a fulltime 1B last year. That's 5 guys by my count who didn't move positions at all. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the same number as the Dodgers, right?

Can he? Yes, it is a possibility. Will he? Not until he does things noticeably different for multiple years in a row.

The Dodgers had 13 players with more than 100 PAs last year. We'll start from the bottom and work our way up to test your "only moved 1 regular player" hypothesis. Dalton Rushing: 155 PAs, 41 games at C, 8 at 1B, 1 at DH Hyeseong Kim: 170 PAs, 45 games at 2B, 17 in CF, 11 at SS Kike Hernandez: 256 PAs, 28 at 1B, 27 at 3B, 23 in LF, 18 at 2B, 8 in CF, 2 at DH Miguel Rojas: 317 PAs, 68 at 2B, 23 at 3B, 22 at SS, 1 at 1B Tommy Edman: 377 PAs, 66 at 2B, 25 in CF, 13 at 3B, 1 at DH Max Muncy: 388 PAs, 97 at 3B (here's the first guy that actually only played 1 spot) Will Smith: 436 PAs, 101 at C, 1 at DH Michael Conforto: 486 PAs, 132 in LF Teoscar Hernandez: 546 PAs, 133 in RF Andy Pages: 624 PAs, 121 in CF, 51 in RF, 27 in LF Freddie Freeman: 627 PAs, 146 at 1B Mookie Betts: 663 PAs, 148 at SS, 1 in RF Shohei Ohtani: 727 PAs, obviously DH and pitcher Mookie has famously moved positions multiple times. The players the Dodgers didn't move around were Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Michael Conforto, and Max Muncy. Will Smith is the catcher so I assume we aren't counting him. Do you think the Twins have more players like that group or like Dalton Rushing, Hyeseong Kim, Kike Hernandez, Miguel Rojas, Tommy Edman, and Andy Pages? All of which moved around all season. And if you want to talk season to season, we obviously have the Mookie moves, but they've moved Max Muncy between 1B, 2B, and 3B. and Teoscar has played both LF and RF for them as needed. So, now we're at just Conforto, Freeman, and Smith who haven't moved positions for the Dodgers. That's a guy who was in his first season with them (Conforto has played all 3 OF positions in his career, though, FYI), a 1B, and a C. You still want to stick with them only moving Betts? They realign where nearly their entire roster plays year to year and within the season to fit what the current makeup of the roster is. And so does every other team. This argument that the Twins are doing crazy things is absolute nonsense. Every MLB team does it. Bo Bichette switched to 2B in the WS while Andres Gimenez moved from 2B to SS for the playoffs. Bo is said to be open to playing 2B with whatever team he signs with. Carlos Correa moved to 3B to go back to Houston. Jose Altuve moved to left field. Fernando Tatis Jr moved to RF. Jackson Merrill moved to CF, where he'd never played in an official game in his life, so he could debut in the majors at the age of 20. Vlad Jr moved to 1B. Marcus Semien moved to 2B. Manny Machado moved to 3B so he could debut, then moved back to SS, then back to 3B. Every. Team. Does. This.

Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor.

I didn't say it was bad, I said they weren't improving guy's ability to actually field. If you can look at Ty France being negative in OAA for literally every season of his career before last year and then see him at +10 and honestly think the Twins spun him from a -12 fielder to a +10 fielder at the age of 30 with just 1 spring training, I'll tell you we'll just have to agree to disagree. The Twins have done a great job with knowing the limits of their 1B and putting them in positions where they aren't asking them to do things they can't do. That isn't bad at all. That's why I never said it was "all bad." I'm simply pointing out the significant flaws in using OAA as evidence that the Twins are making guys better fielders. They aren't. They're just aren't asking them to make as many plays as other teams do. Santana playing off the line 47% of the time compared to only 14% for France is a great example of this. Santana was trusted to be further from the line more often because he could cover more ground. France wasn't trusted at all. Of course it's important to guard the line and get to the bag. What separates the great from the good from the ok from the bad from the very bad is how far away from the line you can stand and still accomplish those goals. If I can put Freddie Freeman off the line 90% of the time and get the same results from him on guarding the line and getting to the bag as you get from putting France off the line 14% of the time I get a significant advantage because Freeman can cover so much more ground towards the hole that you are simply giving away because France can't even attempt to get to those balls. Using OAA as proof the Twins made Ty France 22 runs better in 1 spring training is ridiculous. They didn't. The algorithm simply isn't very good.

I just watched a docuseries about that 3B on HBO!

Little late to the party here, but I'm sorry, drafting college SS/mIF is not some crazy, methodical plan the Twins cooked up out of nowhere. "Few teams" can match the Twins flexibility? What are we basing this statement on? Other teams don't have a guy at SS currently who can't field the position but could move down the defensive spectrum to 3B or 2B if that's what's needed? Literally 100% of major league teams can fill that description. Other teams don't have athletic mIFers who could move to the outfield if needed? I'm going to go ahead and say 100% of major league teams can move bad defensive 2B to the outfield. You could make the argument that not every MLB team has a SS prospect of Culpepper's caliber, but that's the only one of these 3 guys that not 100% of the league has. I know I harp on this a lot, but, again, the Padres were literally starting former SS prospects at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, and RF at one point in time. This idea that the Twins are unique in moving guys around is so wildly off base. Every team can move an IFer to the OF. And they all do! And they all move bad fielding SS to 3B or 2B. Some of them even move good fielding SS to 3B or 2B. This is not a unique thing about the Twins. It's just that a very large part of the Twins near term success is tied to these 3 guys succeeding.

“We’ve got to figure out what’s keeping us from having more consistent success,” Pohlad said. “I think the rub, if you will, on the organization, historically speaking, is there’s a feeling, which I might share, that we continue to run the same playbook over and over, hoping for a different result. The accountability factor is, if something doesn’t go right, if we don’t meet expectations, what are we going to do differently? And then go out and do something differently.” This is just the most annoying thing I've ever read. Accountability? Something different? You mean like keeping the same guy in charge for the 10th year and letting him use the exact same plan as the last 2 offseasons where he kept the same team in place and added cheap, non-needle-moving free agents to "fill holes?" That's the change you made after deciding you shouldn't "run the same playbook over and over, hoping for a different result?" Booting little brother/the nephew while firing Rocco is the only change they made. They haven't changed how they run the organization in any way, shape, or form. Yet. I guess I can throw in a yet to be as fair as anyone could ask me to be with the Pohlads. Just a joke of a statement from our new Pohlad prince.

I thought the stuff about little brother Joe being pushed aside was very exciting. That's at least 3 destroyed businesses they had to take away from him now, right? My goodness what a life he leads.

I'm sure that's part of the thought process. I think the difference in percentages of being close to the line between Santana and France is telling. They trusted Santana's range more. I'd bet Bell is much closer to France's number than Santana's. The more you trust your 1B the further away you're comfortable with them playing.

They have a long way to go still.

Manipulate maybe wasn't the best word to use. They aren't trying to trick the system, that's just the result of asking their 1B to do less than other teams. If you have your guy playing on the line 80+% of the time you aren't asking him to get to balls in the hole 80+% of the time. That throws off the algorithm because there are fewer chances for a player to go negative when they're not asked to cover as much ground.

I maybe shouldn't have used "manipulate." I don't think they're doing things on purpose to get better OAA numbers for their guys, it's just a byproduct of moving their 1B closer to the line. The algorithm doesn't expect them to get to as many balls to their right because they're further away so they have fewer negative marks. What they've done is lower their ask for 1B. Just guard the line and catch throws. Much harder to go negative when the space you're asked to cover is smaller.

It doesn't. That's the point. They moved them closer to the line so there are fewer balls to their right that the algorithm expects them to get to. They aren't improving performance, they're limiting the expectations. Guard the line and get to the base quickly for throws. They've cut down on the amount of ground they're asking their 1B to cover and the algorithms spit out drastically different data because of it.

You are describing a player that simply cannot be on an MLB roster for any real amount of time. You have 1 backup catcher and 3 other guys on your bench. Burning a bench spot by the end of the 5th inning every game is simply not a real plan. You can't roster these guys. Well, you SHOULDN'T roster these guys. The Twins seem to find ways to do it quite frequently.