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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Royce lost his value because he lost the ability to hit. What specifically did the Twins do to cause that?
  2. chpettit19
    He's in much the same situation as Rodriguez, just at different points in their careers. If a team is willing to give you value that'd reflect Emma as a top 50ish prospect or Lewis as a possible borderline All Star, pull the trigger. If they are only willing to give you a flier on either of them, you just have to hold them and do everything you can to get them on the field and performing to the best of their ability. Only other variable with Lewis is the money. If you're just going to nontender him, take whatever lottery ticket you can get for him. No reason to lose him for nothing if you can get something. Even if it's very little something.
  3. chpettit19
    Pohlad gives him his directions. If he doesn't want them rebuilding, it doesn't matter what Zoll wants. I think the offseason was similar to after 2023 (or whatever year that was, memory not working right now) when Falvey kept saying ownership hadn't given him a budget yet. With the Pohlad family drama and kicking little bro out it put the FO on hold for most of the offseason and then changed the direction they'd been going from rebuild to compete. None of this is to say I have any kind of huge faith in Zoll. And I have no idea what his desired strategy was. He very well may have been all for this current plan. And I don't know how good he is at convincing ownership of a direction. Lots of unknowns. I don't have faith in the entire Twins org at this point. But my default is to start at the top and let the blame trickle down from there. And the Pohlads are the top. If Zoll is awful at his job and they keep him employed, that's their fault, too.
  4. chpettit19
    Oh, fully agree. That's my problem with the roster construction. Has been since Tommy P took over and told us all they're going to try to win this year, but then never made any moves to actually do it. Like I said, Larnach, Wallner, and Bell wouldn't be here. I wouldn't be letting Martin take real ABs from anyone. Or Fedko. Sabato would be gone from AAA and Gonzalez and/or Mendez would be playing 1B assuming they aren't complete and utter butchers there (I don't know, so that's entirely hypothetical). Clemens would never step foot in the OF for me. Or Kreidler. Jenkins, Emma, Gabby, and Mendez would be getting everyday ABs at whichever level they should be at for their development. Nobody else in the Twins organization not named Buxton would be getting ABs over them this year. Roden and Emma would've been my opening day corner OFers with Martin behind them and Wallner in the DH spot. Once Wallner flopped he'd have lost his shot at priority ABs. Jenkins, Gabby, and Mendez would've been my opening day St Paul OF if Mendez and/or Gabby didn't show any ability to play 1B. Those are the guys that'd get priority ABs for me this year. Everybody else would fill in around them as needed. Buxton obviously being the outlier amongst veteran types who'd get every AB he can handle.
  5. chpettit19
    That was my understanding. And my counter is that I don't care about Larnach, Wallner, or Bell. I mention Bell because you can DH 1 of your OFers if you have 4 of them worthy of those PAs. Don't care about Clemens in the OF. My comment about the 12 OFers they'd mentioned was meant to emphasize the word "prospect." They may have a bunch of OFers between MLB and AAA, but they aren't all prospects. They aren't all guys who are going to be a part of the future. I think the next window truly opens in 2028. Not all 12 of those guys are parts that are on a 2028 and beyond timeline. So I don't care about them. I care about the guys who can be part of an actual winning team. Prospects.
  6. chpettit19
    They don't have 12 OF prospects. I don't think this team is good enough. I didn't think they were good enough coming into the season. Trevor Larnach wouldn't be here if I'd been in charge. Wallner would be flat out gone by now. Bell wouldn't be here. I don't know what they all look like at 1B, but a handful of them would be getting daily reps at 1B before games to prepare them for a position shift. The reason I don't believe in things like "clogged" rosters is because 1. they're never all healthy for a year, and 2. you can move guys. Whether in position or off the team. The Twins problem this year is they half-a'd the rebuild. They tried to play to win now and in the future and stuck themselves in a position where they can't win now and are hurting their chances in the future. Part of what you cut out of my post was me saying that if 6 OF prospects all turn out then you trade some to fill other holes. My argument is that when you're not in a win now window, you don't try to guess at which prospects will make it. You hold them all until you find out and go from there. But you don't block those guys with guys who aren't part of the future.
  7. chpettit19
    Fair enough.
  8. chpettit19
    They're certainly an intriguing option in my eyes. Reports are that they're finally willing to trade from their rotation to add to their lineup. Jeffers would be the piece I'd start with and see where talks go from there.
  9. chpettit19
    Couldn't afford to do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Financially speaking. That's why you need cheap ceiling. I've been open to trading Emma for a couple years now. When they were in "win now" mode. I'm not so open to the idea of trading young guys now. Because I think the real window opens in 2028. And I don't subscribe to any idea that you ever have a surplus anywhere when you aren't in "win now" mode. I don't care if the Twins have 8 OF prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 9th and 10th. Don't care if they have 5 C prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 6th and 7th. Playing the guessing game of which one will make it and which one won't is a dangerous game. When you're in your window, I'm all for trading some prospects for major leaguers. I had no problem at all with the Mahle/Lopez deadline. But when you're working on opening your window, I want every last prospect I can get. If 6 OFers end up succeeding, then I'm in my new window and I trade a couple to fill other holes. It's all about where you're at in the cycle to me. And I don't think the Twins are in a part of the cycle that should include trading away ceiling. Unless you're getting something pretty impressive like 4 more years of Emerson Hancock.
  10. chpettit19
    Because they have the best pitching prospect in baseball abusing minor league hitters with nowhere to put him. I didn't come up with the Hancock idea on my own. It's being reported pretty widely that the Mariners are open to trading from their rotation to add to their lineup. They'd prefer to move Castillo, but he'd bring the least in return. Hancock is the name I've seen recently that they're trying to sell high on to bring back an MLB bat.
  11. chpettit19
    Don't get my hopes up.
  12. chpettit19
    I think Jeffers and Emma would be a bit of an overpay, yes. I think it should certainly be enough. And I wouldn't hate it. I think Emma is very talented, but at some point the injuries are just too much. I like the general Hancock/Ferrer for Jeffers/Emma outline. I think it'd be worth both team's time to talk about it.
  13. chpettit19
    That's totally fair. I'm just not somebody who is a fan of trading away ceiling. I'll take the extra risk for the extra reward opportunity. Ceiling is what wins in the playoffs. Cheap ceiling is huge. And I don't think those guys would be needed to get Hancock. I think Jeffers and a piece or 2 with less ceiling than Hill or Soto gets it done. And definitely Jeffers and Larnach with a lower ceiling piece. Shoot, Wallner was just mentioned. I'd give them Jeffers, Larnach, and Wallner for Hancock.
  14. chpettit19
    I don't think there's a realistic trade for Kade. I don't think they're moving him at all. Castillo or Hancock are probably the only arms they're moving. Sloan is maybe a little gettable, but it'd cost much more than Jeffers and either of those arms to get him, I'd bet.
  15. chpettit19
    I think they're looking for offense in any form. Cal is AWFUL this year. He'd still be their long-term catcher, but Jeffers would provide significantly better offense for the rest of this year. And if they choose to sign Ryan after the season, then you have 2 catchers which can keep Cal rested and he's more than enough offense to DH if he gets back close to what he was last year. Jeffers and Larnach would be good. I wouldn't give up either Hill or Soto. I get they have a relatively low chance of reaching their ceilings, but their ceilings are very high and I want all the high ceiling arms I can get. Jeffers and Emma would be fine with me, but probably wouldn't go Jeffers, Larnach, and Emma. Hancock is a mid-rotation kind of guy, in my opinion. You're paying for his team control as a reliable rotation arm more than you're paying for him to lead a rotation.
  16. chpettit19
    He's not a top of the rotation arm, but Emerson Hancock has 4 more years of control left and is rumored to be available from the Mariners. That's the "bigger" move I make. Add another MLB arm to the rotation. Only I'm not using any of these prospects to get him. I'm using Ryan Jeffers.
  17. chpettit19
    He'll get another option year. If a team values him as a top 50 prospect, I'd certainly be considering trading him for the return that sort of prospect can get. I'd be surprised if anyone is willing to give up that kind of value for him, though. They're in a tough spot with him. Best play is probably to just hold him and see what happens. Definitely don't want to trade him for a rental reliever or something like that and have him end up panning out.
  18. chpettit19
    My exact thoughts. Was very surprised to see him on the list at all. There's definitely some talent in the system. Will be fun to watch as it develops and see if any of these guys can get over the MLB hump into stardom. Little Lackey/Jenkins combo in the 2/3 holes of the lineup could be really fun if things turn out for them.
  19. chpettit19
    7 at 30 is an awful contract for the Twins. You'd be paying him through his age 37 season. And paying him at least 5 million more than the market is likely to bare. Twins fans would be complaining about that contract ruining their payroll (or cap) so fast. There are plenty of other ways to get the payroll up that don't include overpaying Joe Ryan on years and money. And, no, I don't think Joe Ryan is a top 10 pitcher in baseball. Top 20ish is a better argument.
  20. chpettit19
    Tarik Skubal may have something to say about "the top pitcher available."
  21. chpettit19
    For those who care, Keith Law just released his updated top 70. The Twins on the list are: 19. Jenkins 20. Lackey 31. Emma 53. Culpepper
  22. chpettit19
    I wouldn't put Lackey ahead of Jenkins yet, because, as you say, Jenkins is doing it in AAA already. But I have those 2 on a separate tier from everyone else. Emma is in his own world because the injuries are just so numerous it's hard to judge him at all. But, for me, it's Tier 1- Jenkins/Lackey, Tier 2- Culpepper, then everyone else.
  23. chpettit19
    I reject the idea that they "truly are contenders" so that plays no role in my thoughts at all. I wouldn't have had Larnach on my roster to start this year. Or Bell. I would've had Emma and Roden both on the opening day roster. I don't see them forcing him anywhere. That feels like an emotional reaction to the trade and not the reality. If they wanted to force an opportunity for him because they traded for him, he'd have been on the opening day roster. But he wasn't. And he's played recently because the starting CFer was on the IL. He's started 6 games for the Twins this year. If that's "forcing him into the lineup" I'd hate to see what he'd get normally. But the idea that "he had a month to establish himself" is really what I'm contending against. It's a month. Making a decision on him in a month is bad roster management. I'd argue they put themselves in a bad situation by trying to "compete" this year when they had no real shot at it.
  24. chpettit19
    Yeah, I'm not saying he's having a bad year, but the question being discussed was essentially where his career goes from here. Your argument was that he's shown he can make adjustments. I'm just saying he hasn't actually made those adjustments. I won't claim he'll be out of baseball in a couple years (top 10 picks aren't tossed aside easily), but I also don't think he's really shown anything sustainable. RISP are incredibly volatile.
  25. chpettit19
    I'm certainly not going to fight for the idea that Roden is some sort of key piece for the Twins future, but Trevor Larnach hit .213/.311/.415 in his age 26 season. That was his 3rd year in the bigs. Through those first 3 years he was hitting .222/.315/.385. Only real difference between Larnach's bat and Roden's is the slugging. If Roden can't slug the same .385ish that Larnach did, his career is over. But his sample size is way too small to make any final determination on yet. Again, not claiming he's any sort of vital piece, and he shouldn't be one to block Jenkins, but writing a player off after 183 PAs is a good way to lose a lot of good players. He's likely just a 4th OFer, but 4th OFers are also important. Because at some point during the season they're going to become a top 3 OFer. The Twins need to give him more runway to see if he can get settled and get his numbers up as they settle in over a larger sample size.
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