chpettit19

Oh, I'm always happy to get more arms. Never enough. I just think it's harder to get multiple top level arms in a deal than an arm and a bat. Every team wants more pitching. Even the Dodgers, and they have like 37 Cy Young candidates (slight exaggeration, maybe). If the Twins can get a deal for 2 top 100 arms, I'd be all for it.

Dang, just asked a question. If you're going to make a statement like "Whomever wrote this seems woefully unqualified to have their opinions quoted on this site" I assumed you'd be able to provide the data to back it up. My bad. Was curious what your research showed since you said "I've done this analysis before." Wasn't asking for new analysis, just the stuff you claimed you'd already done.

Haha, I understand the sarcasm, but Hartman is probably the best CFer we'd have if they got him. He's a faster and a better defender than Jenkins or Emma or any of those other guys. He'd probably be our #3 or 4 prospect depending on how people view him vs Culpepper. I don't care if we have 1000 lefty outfielders if he's better than 997 of them. Just get me more talent.

I don't think this is a crazy take at all. Just not my line of thinking. I don't care if they get a close to ready AAA arm back for Ryan. Lopez, Taj, Abel, Matthews, Ober, Rojas, and Prielipp are enough arms for my liking at this point. I'm not playing for this year at all. Don't care who they throw out there in Ryan's place for the rest of 2026. They have the offseason to add depth to the rotation for 2027. Paredes as the 8th arm going into next year doesn't even make me mad. Couple offseason fliers and I'd be happy with the state of the rotation going into 2027. I'd expect Caminiti and Hartman to both end this season in AA. Quick is already there. That'd give me 2 AA arms with good ceiling looking at 2028 debut possibilities. And another offseason to load up more there if needed. I just don't think the rotation is as dire as others do. And if I can spin Jeffers plus into Emerson Hancock, I'm really not worried. My biggest complaint with the Twins has been that they stopped the rebuild midstream. Tommy Boy not letting them finish the job of setting this up as a transition year to get the young guys experience has made it more difficult to really get some momentum going towards truly building a winner, in my opinion. I think he actually hurt what I believe his goal truly is. I think he really does want a winner sooner than later, but I think not moving the rest of the veteran types has stuck them in a middle ground of trying to sell .500 as a success while also not putting them in a better spot for 2027 and beyond. I think they have enough between MLB and AAA that a few offseason adds could have put them in a really good spot for 2027 even without Ryan and/or Pablo and Jeffers. But I think they've pushed the window back by trying to win this year. I'm not worried as much about getting guys back in any of these deals that can help immediately. I just want ceiling. If they aren't here til 2028, that's totally fine with me. The window should be opening in 2027, but it's not a 1 year window. They're setting themselves up for a possible 1 year window by not moving Ryan and Lopez, but that sort of decision would likely come with a lessened chance at truly opening the window beyond that. I don't care about 2026 at all. This team isn't good enough. And they've moved the transition year to next year, so I'm less interested in opening day 2027 performance than I am with 2nd half 2027 performance. So I'll take the highest ceiling guys I can get that can be part of a window starting late 2027 and moving forward. The sustainable part of winning is important, too. And grabbing guys that debut a year or 2 after the current wave helps with that.

Johan Santana did make 5 playoff starts for the Twins. I think he'd probably argue he wasn't a #3 starter. What were the rankings for runs allowed by playoff teams? Worse than the rankings for runs scored?

What do you see as the Twins competitive window? And who are the guys driving it?

Isn't Michael Harris their CFer? They could use an OFer, especially with Acuna's injuries, but they also need pitching. Sale is 37 years old. They have Lopez and Perez in their rotation. Strider can't stay healthy. Smith-Shawver is a nice piece. And Schwellenbach. But who is the future in their rotation beyond them? I'd say they need arms in their system every bit as much as they need an OFer. I'm less position focused as most others. I just want talent. Ceiling talent. As much high ceiling talent as I can get. I'll figure out the details later once I see who can actually get close to reaching their ceiling in the majors. Hartman is quite possibly their best talent, from what I can see. So, he's who I want.

If they sell numerous pieces at the deadline, I'd be even more inclined to keep them down. If Larnach is gone, put Roden in RF (move Keaschall to left where he belongs) every day for 3 weeks and see what he can do. If Bell is gone, move Larnach to DH, Keaschall to left and put Roden in RF every day for 3 weeks. If they're both gone, put Keaschall in left and Roden in right for 3 weeks and rotate DH. I don't want to waste the rookie eligibility of those guys for an extra 2 weeks of time in the bigs. The cutoff for days for rookie eligibility is in the middle of August. Maybe neither wins RoY, but I'd give myself multiple chances at the extra pick over an extra 2 weeks in the bigs for them. Bring Fedko back up and give him those 2 weeks of ABs and see if he's even worth tendering this offseason as a possible 4th OFer or if he's simply not a major leaguer. Bring Wallner back to DH. Plenty of other guys they can gather data on for offseason decisions for 2 or 3 weeks while you save your multiple chances at an extra draft pick.

Yeah, I think the break came at a terrible time for the Twins. They were outperforming their numbers by a pretty significant margin, and the break gave them time off to lose their rhythm, and many of these players aren't good enough to find it and play above their heads again. Kreidler being a prime example. As to your comment about getting Jenkins and Culpepper up, I'd like to see them up mid- to late-August. I don't think a few more weeks in AAA hurts them at all and I'd like to keep their rookie eligibility in place for 2027 and give us 2 shots at a RoY award extra draft pick compensation.

Culpepper played his first game in a month last night. Having him debut almost immediately after coming off the IL feels like putting him in a really bad spot. Established MLB players get longer rehab stints than you're proposing. Let Kaelen get settled for a couple weeks and show that he's doing what he was before the injury.

I think there's a 0% chance Seattle is trading Kade Anderson. And if they did, it'd be for offense, not pitching. If the Twins can get Anderson plus in a deal for Joe Ryan, they should get the paperwork filed immediately. I don't think the Twins could get Kade straight up for Joe Ryan. The package I'd like to see the Twins get back is Cam Caminiti and Eric Hartman from Atlanta. Although, all of these deals are intriguing. Outside of what I believe to be completely unrealistic in getting Kade back. I'd also be surprised to see San Diego move Salas at this point.

FYI, the Hancock rumors are definitely focused on the deadline. Not saying that means he'll be traded, but they aren't looking for young hitters, they're looking for a right handed bat to plug into their lineup today. They have 6 MLB starters and 2 elite pitching prospects. The reports are they're willing to trade Castillo or Hancock for offense. Hancock would bring back significantly more than Castillo, so that's the rumor people are focusing on. They're reported to have interest in Steer from Cinci. If that's the case, Jeffers should pretty easily trump him in terms of an offensive piece. With Steer obviously being able to stand in more defensive spots even though he doesn't play them particularly well. The Mariners aren't looking forward to 2027 when it comes to Hancock, they're looking to make an MLB for MLB trade to get them to the top of their division in 2026. Or at least that's what the reporting is.

Culpepper debuted on 8/9 and Houston debuted on 8/1. Without claiming any inside info, I'd guess we see Lackey sometime next week. Certainly within the next 2.

Fangraphs doubted his power. He, apparently, put on quite a show in BP before the futures game. They are one of multiple publications that have mentioned it. They now believe in the power. That was their stated biggest reason for the jump. They now believe he can be a true star with the bat by hitting for average and power.

It absolutely is. But a SS who can't field the position not hitting is not worth anything just like a 1B who can't hit isn't. The position thing only matters if Royce can actually field the position. He can't field SS. If the Twins put Austin Martin at SS for a season and watched him not field and not hit, would he suddenly be worth more because it says SS next to his name? Of course not. And its the same with Lewis. Not hitting and not fielding at SS doesn't automatically make you more valuable just because it says SS next to your name.

He stopped hitting before they moved him to 1B. He moved there in the minors at the age of 27 after getting demoted because he hadn't hit for 2 years. That argument doesn't make any sense at all. He moved to 3B for some guy named Correa. And hit well while playing there until completely falling apart. He didn't fall apart when they moved him, he fell apart a year and a half later. $16MM of value for a full season is nonsense in this discussion. You think other teams would be looking at Lewis hitting at an 80-something OPS+ for 2 years while playing below average defense at short and think "my goodness, we really need this guy!" Or putting up those numbers while playing a better, but still not very good defense at 3B and be begging for him? Royce Lewis stopped hitting. That's why he lost his value. And it had nothing at all to do with him changing positions.

Royce lost his value because he lost the ability to hit. What specifically did the Twins do to cause that?

He's in much the same situation as Rodriguez, just at different points in their careers. If a team is willing to give you value that'd reflect Emma as a top 50ish prospect or Lewis as a possible borderline All Star, pull the trigger. If they are only willing to give you a flier on either of them, you just have to hold them and do everything you can to get them on the field and performing to the best of their ability. Only other variable with Lewis is the money. If you're just going to nontender him, take whatever lottery ticket you can get for him. No reason to lose him for nothing if you can get something. Even if it's very little something.

Pohlad gives him his directions. If he doesn't want them rebuilding, it doesn't matter what Zoll wants. I think the offseason was similar to after 2023 (or whatever year that was, memory not working right now) when Falvey kept saying ownership hadn't given him a budget yet. With the Pohlad family drama and kicking little bro out it put the FO on hold for most of the offseason and then changed the direction they'd been going from rebuild to compete. None of this is to say I have any kind of huge faith in Zoll. And I have no idea what his desired strategy was. He very well may have been all for this current plan. And I don't know how good he is at convincing ownership of a direction. Lots of unknowns. I don't have faith in the entire Twins org at this point. But my default is to start at the top and let the blame trickle down from there. And the Pohlads are the top. If Zoll is awful at his job and they keep him employed, that's their fault, too.

Oh, fully agree. That's my problem with the roster construction. Has been since Tommy P took over and told us all they're going to try to win this year, but then never made any moves to actually do it. Like I said, Larnach, Wallner, and Bell wouldn't be here. I wouldn't be letting Martin take real ABs from anyone. Or Fedko. Sabato would be gone from AAA and Gonzalez and/or Mendez would be playing 1B assuming they aren't complete and utter butchers there (I don't know, so that's entirely hypothetical). Clemens would never step foot in the OF for me. Or Kreidler. Jenkins, Emma, Gabby, and Mendez would be getting everyday ABs at whichever level they should be at for their development. Nobody else in the Twins organization not named Buxton would be getting ABs over them this year. Roden and Emma would've been my opening day corner OFers with Martin behind them and Wallner in the DH spot. Once Wallner flopped he'd have lost his shot at priority ABs. Jenkins, Gabby, and Mendez would've been my opening day St Paul OF if Mendez and/or Gabby didn't show any ability to play 1B. Those are the guys that'd get priority ABs for me this year. Everybody else would fill in around them as needed. Buxton obviously being the outlier amongst veteran types who'd get every AB he can handle.

That was my understanding. And my counter is that I don't care about Larnach, Wallner, or Bell. I mention Bell because you can DH 1 of your OFers if you have 4 of them worthy of those PAs. Don't care about Clemens in the OF. My comment about the 12 OFers they'd mentioned was meant to emphasize the word "prospect." They may have a bunch of OFers between MLB and AAA, but they aren't all prospects. They aren't all guys who are going to be a part of the future. I think the next window truly opens in 2028. Not all 12 of those guys are parts that are on a 2028 and beyond timeline. So I don't care about them. I care about the guys who can be part of an actual winning team. Prospects.

They don't have 12 OF prospects. I don't think this team is good enough. I didn't think they were good enough coming into the season. Trevor Larnach wouldn't be here if I'd been in charge. Wallner would be flat out gone by now. Bell wouldn't be here. I don't know what they all look like at 1B, but a handful of them would be getting daily reps at 1B before games to prepare them for a position shift. The reason I don't believe in things like "clogged" rosters is because 1. they're never all healthy for a year, and 2. you can move guys. Whether in position or off the team. The Twins problem this year is they half-a'd the rebuild. They tried to play to win now and in the future and stuck themselves in a position where they can't win now and are hurting their chances in the future. Part of what you cut out of my post was me saying that if 6 OF prospects all turn out then you trade some to fill other holes. My argument is that when you're not in a win now window, you don't try to guess at which prospects will make it. You hold them all until you find out and go from there. But you don't block those guys with guys who aren't part of the future.

Fair enough.

They're certainly an intriguing option in my eyes. Reports are that they're finally willing to trade from their rotation to add to their lineup. Jeffers would be the piece I'd start with and see where talks go from there.

Couldn't afford to do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Financially speaking. That's why you need cheap ceiling. I've been open to trading Emma for a couple years now. When they were in "win now" mode. I'm not so open to the idea of trading young guys now. Because I think the real window opens in 2028. And I don't subscribe to any idea that you ever have a surplus anywhere when you aren't in "win now" mode. I don't care if the Twins have 8 OF prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 9th and 10th. Don't care if they have 5 C prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 6th and 7th. Playing the guessing game of which one will make it and which one won't is a dangerous game. When you're in your window, I'm all for trading some prospects for major leaguers. I had no problem at all with the Mahle/Lopez deadline. But when you're working on opening your window, I want every last prospect I can get. If 6 OFers end up succeeding, then I'm in my new window and I trade a couple to fill other holes. It's all about where you're at in the cycle to me. And I don't think the Twins are in a part of the cycle that should include trading away ceiling. Unless you're getting something pretty impressive like 4 more years of Emerson Hancock.