chpettit19

My answer was 80-89 and that's really the range I see them in. If you told me they'll end the season with 80 wins I wouldn't be shocked. If you told me they'll end the season with 89 I wouldn't be shocked. You'll have to do a new poll after the trade deadline as the moves they make, or don't make, will narrow the likely outcomes for the rest of the season. The Mariners have won 14 in a row. A great 2 weeks can really change the perception, and trajectory, of a season. Twins rally off an 11-3 stretch and I think it'd make everyone breathe a little easier and set them up in a nice spot. It's not impossible for a run like that to happen, but they need to make some moves in the coming weeks to better their odds.

Yeah, the injury stuff is interesting with this FO. I love Prielipp at 48. I think that's a perfectly fine spot to take a shot on a guy that could've been taken 1-1 had he stayed healthy. Many said his slider was the best individual pitch in the draft and that makes me pretty comfortable that he's at least a bullpen weapon even if his arm can't handle a full starter workload. But he's got Chris Sale upside with his FB/SL combo so I think his incredible upside is a nice balance with Lee being more of a high floor, but not out of this world ceiling at 8. Now hopefully he holds up and moves relatively quickly and he replaces Castillo at the front of the rotation in 2024. A guy can dream at least ?‍♂️

Where are you seeing Parada grade out higher than Lee? I don't think I've seen a single scouting service grade Parada over Lee in any category outside power. Parada is no more likely to stay at C than Lee is to stay at SS. I mean Fangraphs lists him as a LFer because they have so little faith in his ability to receive, block, or throw.

I was watching the MLB Network airing of the draft and Dan O'Dowd had mentioned at 1 point that he'd expect a number of teams to take him off their board completely because they simply wouldn't draft someone off bullpens and no game action for so long. It sounds like a reasonable enough reason for him to have fallen so far. I think the Twins are going to have to work some pool money magic to sign him and Lee, though.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe Aug 1 is the deadline for signing draftees. So he'll be somewhere playing for the Twins within a few weeks, assuming they sign him. And I'd think they'd be a little aggressive with him to give him a real shot at getting AA PAs at some point this season.

Man, Twins draft a consensus top 5 prospect at 8 and there's still boards filled with people being mad about it. Hard to fathom. Parada is just as likely to stick at catcher as Lee is to stick at short so take that into consideration when complaining about not taking him. "I know you don't draft for need" followed by a complaint that they didn't "draft for need" is a fun little game to play. The Twins got what almost every scout in professional baseball thought was the best pure college hitter in the draft with the 8th pick. Why can't we just be happy about that? It was a fantastic first night for the Twins and that started with getting Lee at 8.

Why are we talking about Celestino, or anyone, as the "future centerfielder in a couple years" or the "heir apparent to Buxton when he stops playing center, sadly sooner rather than later?" Buxton is on a 7 year deal and isn't about to suddenly stop being an elite defender there. And when he does stop being elite (in what? 4 years?) he'll simply be above average before moving to average. The only replacement, or "heir apparent," you need for Buxton is an injury one. If Buxton is on the field anytime in the next 4 years he's playing CF and he'll be among the 3 or 4 best in baseball at defending there. Even injured he's one of the best defenders in baseball. I don't understand those statements at all. Gordon is not a backup CFer beyond being able to play it as part of his utility role. Celestino is a 4th OFer who was basically always projected to be a 4th OFer and is now fulfilling that role. Anyone in the Twins minor leagues at this point that has any chance of playing major league baseball anytime in the next couple years (outside of Royce Lewis) is a 4th OFer, or COFer, type, and not a starting CF type. I don't see the depth here at all.

The Twins have been depressing lately so I wanted to talk about a couple more exciting things today. One local feature and one national. Let's start local (Twin Cities local, sorry all you out of town/state-ers). The Firemen's Softball Tournament is taking place this weekend in Bloomington (East 90th and Portland for anyone who wants to check it out!). For those of us who's bodies no longer allow them to play hardball we've migrated to the soft side of things and this tournament is the spectacle of the summer. If you enjoy beer, sun, large crowds of people, and lots of softball you should swing on down and check it out. Just follow the gigantic crowds to find the "show" field where the best teams from around the country battle it out for softball supremacy. It's a fun weekend full of different levels of softball and it's a really good time right in our backyard. The second exciting event of the weekend is the MLB Futures Game tonight. For those of you who have never checked it out, or even heard of it, you're missing out! It's played the weekend before the All Star Game every year at the All Star stadium. Top prospects from every organization battle it out in a 7 inning game. The teams used to be split up World vs USA, but it's now NL vs AL. As those who follow this site regularly know, the Twins will be represented by new St Paul teammates Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. It's one of my favorite events of the year and I always try to tune in to see the coming wave of talent around the league. The game starts at 6 PM central time and here's a link to a nice info page on the game. Bonus event! The MLB draft starts this Sunday night as well. If you haven't been following Jeremy Nygaard's coverage of the draft you've really been missing out. His final Mock Draft can be found here. And the top 25 of his consensus big board can be found here. Jeremy has done an amazing job providing info on all the prospects in play for the Twins with the #8 and 48 picks Sunday night. So while the Twins may be depressing you on the field you now have 3 options in the baseball universe to check out this weekend! Now to the squad that will be turning our frowns upside down today! (Hopefully) Your MN Twins will run out Dylan Bundy (5-4, 4.68 ERA) to the mound to be backed up by a lineup that looks something like this: Luis Arraez, 1B Carlos Correa, SS Byron Buxton, DH Max Kepler, RF Jorge Polanco, 2B Alex Kirilloff, LF Nick Gordon, CF Gio Urshela, 3B Gary Sanchez, C The pale hose will counter with Lance Lynn (1-2, 6.97 ERA) on the mound ready to be let down by a defensive lineup behind him that looks like this: Tim Anderson, SS Yoan Moncada, 3B Andrew Vaughn, DH Jose Abreu, 1B Gavin Sheets, RF AJ Pollock, LF Josh Harrison, 2B Seby Zavala, C Adam Engel, CF

They for sure have work to do. I haven't seen anyone on these forums saying otherwise. I mean this thread itself is about whether or not they CAN right the ship. We all agree the ship is not right and improvements need to be made. What some of us are saying is that a couple trades and improvements to the pen could/would be enough to right the ship enough to get into the playoffs and then, as recent history has shown us, anything can happen. The Twins need this AS break more than any team in baseball. The Orioles and M's are probably wishing they had more time before the break due to the way they're playing. Your graph showed the Twins are on pace for 87 wins. 88 looks like the mark they really need to hit. So even with the recent, massive struggles they're still just 1 game off the pace needed. And with the way this division is looking this year 87 may actually be enough. But, I think, everyone agrees the ship needs to be righted and it starts with changes to the pitching staff. The question is whether or not it can be righted. I think it can, but wouldn't mortgage the future with huge trades for uncontrollable players. A couple moves for expiring, veteran relievers would be a nice place to start, though.

Wow, I don't know how I missed 2018 on my list. That was bad. Embarrassing. I'll wear the pie to the face there. But now you're moving the goalposts. You said "Point 2. It's rare for a playoff team to finish with less than 90 wins." That is provably wrong. There have been 15 teams in the last 7 full seasons to do it. That is not rare. That's more than 2 a year. Honestly, I ended at 2013 because that was how far back Google's standings listings easily went on seasons so I just stopped there. But 2012 is the obvious cutoff point so let's do the last 9 seasons (ignoring 2020). We add the Detroit Tigers and St Louis Cardinals that year. So in the 9 seasons with 10 team playoffs there have been 17 teams to make the playoffs with fewer than 90 wins (your stated mark of "rareness"). That's nearly 2 a season. Now we're at 12 playoff teams which gives those teams and even better chance. 2012: Cards make it within a game of the WS with 88 wins. Tigers make it to the World Series after winning a horrid Central with 88 wins (Sox only other team over .500 that year at 85 wins) 2013: Lowest win total is 90 for the Reds and they get bounced in the WC game 2014: Royals lose WS game 7 after falling 1 game out of 1st in the central with 89 wins (that means 90 wins won the division). Oakland also makes playoffs with 88 wins, but loses to those Royals in WC. 88 win Giants win the World Series after beating 88 win Pirates in WC game. 2015: 3 teams under 90 wins make playoffs (Yanks, Rangers, Astros). None make it past ALDS. 2016: Blue Jays, Orioles, Mets, Giants all make playoffs with fewer than 90 wins. Blue Jays make the ALCS. 2017: Twins and Rockies make it with fewer than 90 wins. Both bounced in WC game. 2018: None make it as I completely missed earlier. Yikes. 2019: Brewers make it and lose WC game. 2020: Ignored 2021: Braves win World Series with 88 wins. So 4 teams since the the playoffs expanded have actually made the World Series with fewer than 90 wins in the regular season. 2 of those teams actually won the World Series. 2 other teams make Championship Series with fewer than 90 wins. That's 6 teams in the Championship Series in 9 seasons that all had fewer than 90 wins. Again, not claiming the Twins are world beaters or I'd bet on them to even make the playoffs, let alone win a game, let alone win a series, let alone win the World Series, but you were clearly wrong about the 90 win mark, and that makes it pretty clear that you're wrong about playing .500 ball for large stretches of a season. I'm not going to tell anyone on here they should go pick out their spot for the WS parade, but people act like the season is doomed because they're on pace for 1 fewer win than last year's WS champs. Just trying to give the situation a little perspective.

In response to Point 2 here is the list of teams to make the playoffs with fewer than 90 wins in recent history: 2021: Atlanta Braves 2020: Doesn't count for obvious reasons (as I pointed out the Astros were a game away from the WS after finishing the year under .500) 2019: Milwaukee Brewers 2017: Colorado Rockies and Minnesota Twins 2016: New York Mets and San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays 2015: Texas Rangers and Houston Astros and New York Yankees 2014: San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics You actually have to go back to 2013 before you find a season that no team with fewer than 90 wins made the playoffs. And 4 of the 6 seasons (not counting 2020) had more than 1 team do it. Not sure I'd define that as "rare." And in those seasons only 5 teams made the playoffs per league. There's 6 teams now so I'd guess we'll actually see a number of teams make it with fewer than 90 wins as the years go on. And if you're finishing the year 7 or 8 games over .500 I think it's pretty fair to say you played .500 ball for quite a long stretch of the season so I'm going to go ahead and say Point 1 is also incorrect. I'm not suggesting the Twins are going to suddenly tear off a 20-5 streak and blow this division out of the water. Also not suggesting the White Sox won't. Simply saying there's no reason to think anyone in this division is going to run away with it as every team is severely flawed. The Mariners and Orioles are currently showing that any team can get hot at any time and go on a 10-0 run and really make some moves in the standings, but through the first half of games this year there's no team in this division that has given anyone any reason to think they're going to rip off 50+ wins the rest of the way and end up at 95+ wins. The Twins have shown to be what many people thought they were, an 85-90 win team most likely. The Sox are pulling a 2021 Twins and failing to live up to pre-season hype. It happens every year to a team or 2 or 5 in the league. I won't be shocked if the Sox end up in the 88-92 win range, but I'd bet on the under on 90 at this point. They are awful defensively and have been for years. They give away too many games just like the Twins. At some point we need to believe the on field performance over the names on the paper.

*No team has ever made the playoffs at (or under) .500 in a full/normal/whatever-you-want-to-call-it MLB season. The Astros did it in 2020. Made it within a game of the World Series if I remember correctly. *2005 Padres made the playoffs at .500 "or so" since "or so" goes both above and below .500 and that SD team was 82-80 to win the horrid NL West. They were promptly swept by the Cardinals which would be an unsurprising result if this particular Twins team made the playoffs in a similar situation. Not sure why we're assuming a one of the teams in the division is likely to wake up. I've seen nothing to suggest any team in the central is going to suddenly be great and run away with things. Every team in this division has significant flaws and the Twins and Sox find a myriad of ways to lose games they should win.

Really? I missed that. That's not good.

What recent revelations are you referring to that should make us question the team doctors or trainers?

Everything I've read said that all the team drs, and the outside specialists, they've talked to about his knee say that 10 days off wouldn't fix anything, and that's why they're doing things the way they are. An IL stint to get him back to 100% would be drastically longer and all 10 days off would do would be have him miss 10 days, feel a bit better for a couple, but then be right back where they are. My understanding from the reports are that it's a lengthy period of time during the offseason that's going to be needed for him to actually get back to 100%. If that's the case I think doing what they're doing is the unfortunate best answer.

This is the weird balance between owners and their teams. The owner's/league's job is to entertain. They're the business side of baseball and they can't run an entertainment business without being entertaining. The FO/coach's/player's jobs are to win. That's why the league has to make rules to up the entertainment value that their own employees are lowering. FO/coaches do things the way they think is the most efficient/effective for winning. Don't care how entertaining it is. They're just out to do whatever they can within the set of rules the league gives them (most of the time) to win as much as possible. It's the leagues job to make rules that promote entertainment. And what is entertaining changes over time so they must adapt. Which they've been very slow to do. As for what entertains me: winning definitely is more fun/entertaining than losing! But I also want to watch good baseball. I'd take a well played, close loss over a horribly played win. Hits, balls in play, runners moving, fielders fielding, and pitchers working quickly is entertaining to me. I don't even need a ton of offense/runs as long as there are balls in play and action. Spectacular fielding plays are a treat to watch. Was just telling my buddies the other day that elite infield defense is my favorite thing to watch in baseball. The smoothness of their hands and body movements to make plays look so easy is art in motion and very entertaining to me. Home runs are fun and impressive. Clutch strikeouts, or even big strikeout games, are fun and impressive. A well earned walk where the hitter lays off close pitches is fun and impressive. When that's all you get it's not fun or impressive. Wild, from your heals, hit it 500 feet swings with 2 strikes that lead to an uncompetitive strikeout are not fun. I think the league is finally trying to bring some entertainment back to the game and that's good. I'm not a huge fan of the fact that it means they have to reduce some of the strategy and team's abilities to innovate, though. I think if you're going to force the game into a more traditional box you need to even the financial playing field along with it. Reducing shifts, forcing pitchers to face 3 batters, and things like this reduce the options low budget teams have to find creative ways to gain an edge. They'll still do it because they have to. But the more the league narrows the way the game is played team to team the more they need to narrow the ability of teams to spend to get players that can best succeed in that narrower game.

I'm starting to lean this way, too. It feels like such a waste of Correa, though. I think they could afford him on a 7 year deal, but I don't see it happening and it feels unsporting to not at least take a Braves approach to the deadline and bring in a few pieces in the pen and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle come October. I'm still confused as to why Kepler hits where he does in the lineup. I like Kepler and think he's a starter on a championship caliber team, but not in the 4 hole. Hit him 7th where he belongs. Arraez, Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kirilloff, and Miranda would be the top 6 in my lineup (against righties at least) in some order. Kepler, Urshella, Gordon, the catchers, Celestino, and Garlick can hit in the 7-9 holes when they start. Biggest concern to me is that the part of the starting pitcher pipeline that was supposed to be ready this year looks like it's going to produce Winder only. Now that's not terrible if Ryan can stabilize as a #2 type starter, Winder as a #3 type and Ober as a #4 or 5, but Sand, Balazovic, Enlow, Canterino, and Strotman are showing why people say you need 10 pitching prospects to get a couple major leaguers. If this wave produces Ryan, Winder, Ober in the rotation, and Duran, Jax, and dare I dream on Canterino in the pen it's certainly a nice outcome. Varland is a wildcard for me. But they're going to have to invest in some better arms than they like to for the next couple years while they hope Hajjar, Povich, SWR, and Henriquez can develop and reinforce them. They're in a tough spot as the pipeline sputters and they're going to have to adjust some plans and I think that starts over the next few weeks. Stick with building through the pipeline or sacrifice some prospects for some guys with a little control to bridge to the prospects again?

This is great work, thanks! I think the only player I wouldn't be super thrilled with at 8 is Berry. If he was getting 70 grades on his bat instead of 60 I'd be more open to it, but he's a 2 tool prospect and if either of those don't translate well he's not a major league player. Not my cup of tea with the 8th pick. Any of the top 7 would obviously be ideal, but I wouldn't be upset with Neto or Cross as a consolation prize. Getting their pick of the best arm wouldn't even be a bad situation. They're in a good spot so I think they'll get a good prospect and be able to hand their development teams a really nice piece of clay to mold. Here's to hoping it's someone we see in the bigs in about 3 years.

The pitching staff definitely needs some big time upgrades before the playoffs. But Toronto isn't exactly shutting teams out on a regular basis. They're 22nd in ERA. They've got some more impressive names than the Twins, but to this point their staff has been pretty terrible so I'm not too scared of them. Their biggest advantage at this point is they get to play against partial teams at home due to Canada vax laws. I wouldn't say the Twins would be a clear underdog against them. Boston is middle of the pack pitching so not sure they're clearly better either. Again, have some big names on the roster, but this far into the season we have to start trusting the performances a bit I think.

I didn't give them credit. I credited the entire team with the entire team based stats. The bullpen is bad and it's why they're 9th in ERA and not higher. That's what I said, and that's the truth of the situation. But they're still 9th in ERA and that's why it's not surprising that they have the 9th best record which is what you originally challenged.

I think you're giving Boston and Toronto a little too much credit. I'd put those 3 in tier 3. NYY and Hou are clearly tier 1. Tampa seems to be a step above these other guys so they're alone in tier 2. Boston, Toronto, and MN are solid, but flawed teams in tier 3. Seattle, Baltimore, Cleveland, CWS are plucky little teams with the chance to move into tier 3.

I'm confused. Is the bullpen not part of the pitching staff that would contribute to the 9th place ranking in run prevention? Maybe I'm not understanding how team totals work. Your statement was suggesting that the Twins record should be better based on the stats I provided. I then showed that they're literally 9th best in all 3 things. If the Twins were better than 9th in run prevention, because the pen didn't give up so many runs, they'd have better than the 9th best record. But, since that's not the case, the stats I listed literally match the record perfectly. Sorry they don't match your perception.

Why would we think that? Sit down before you read this cuz it's going to knock you right over.... The Minnesota Twins are 9th in scoring runs. 9th in preventing runs. And have the 9th best record in baseball! Contract the Twins! The stats are lying!

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=59,55&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2022-03-01&endDate=2022-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=21,1 Another fun page for you. You can put just about every situation you can think of into this fun little tool. I'm not going to do "all RISP stats," but they're terrible with RISP and 2 outs (hitting .199, ouch), ok with RISP and 0 out (15th in the league at .273), and fantastic with RISP and 1 out (2nd in baseball at .332, and Houston is 3rd all the way down at .311). Bases loaded they're at 17th overall hitting .254. Bases loaded and no outs is not pretty at .222 (2 sac flies and 2 GIDP in 11 PAs). 1 out is better at .250 with 3 sac flies in 24 PAs. 2 outs is 9th in the league at .267 in 30 PAs. All of this is pretty small sample size so take it for what you will. Overall they're 9th in baseball in total runs scored. You know, the point of being on offense. They most certainly have their warts, and have had far too many no shows with the bats, but overall they're above average in scoring runs. The thing that's really going to blow your mind is that they're also 9th in ERA. So they're even above average at preventing run scoring. I know, I know, crappy division and all that. But, wait, those big boy sox you're so worried about are 21st in ERA while playing the same terrible division teams and the Orioles and all those other joke teams. That can't be right. Stupid math lying again. Twins are terrible and we need to fix the stupid math so it finally shows that. Below league average in everything! Contract the Twins!

I don't get it. If you already know they're terrible why do I, or anyone, need to look up the stats for you? You already know. I have far better things to do with my time than look up stats for you that you already know.