chpettit19
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Everything posted by chpettit19
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Article: Who Will Be Pitching Staff's Odd Man Out?
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's all speculation. If we knew for a fact Granite provided all those things at the major league level it'd be one thing, but we don't. Not even close. Granite is still just a prospect, and not a very high end one at that. The only thing in there that we know for sure is that he provides more speed and better defense (not saying much there). There's a legitimate chance Granite is never more than a pinch runner/defensive replacement.- 102 replies
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Article: Who Will Be Pitching Staff's Odd Man Out?
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the 16 straight games and the fact that the starting pitching is drastically out doing their expectations are good reasons to keep the extra pitcher around right now. I think the effect it's having on games is overstated at this point. Why does your DH need a day off 9 games into the season? The guy stands there and watches 20 pitches and swings 3 times a night. If he's tired he needs to be cut cuz that's ridiculous. Him sitting was because Mollie wanted to get Escobar in there along with Polanco. Sitting Mauer and Kepler against a lefty is another questionable excuse as well since almost everyone on here was just praising Mollie for sticking with his best defensive lineup and allowing the young lefties to face lefty pitchers early so as to not make them platoon players at the age of 24. The 9 men that are in the lineup shouldn't be changing as much as it is. Nobody should be tired yet and none of these guys are unknown commodities. We know the young guys need ABs and we know Giminez, Santana, and Escobar are not everyday players (you could argue EE maybe, but Polanco needs to be in there). Molitor is making this all more complicated than it needs to be. Mix and match the lineup order, but he has his 9 starters already. The 13 pitchers is an overstated problem. There's no world beater sitting in AAA because of the extra pitcher. It'll be nice to have Vargas or Park up at the end of this 16 game stretch, but it's not a gigantic issue that they aren't here now.- 102 replies
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- craig breslow
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Article: Twins Walk Their Way To 3-0
chpettit19 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Royals pitching was awful and made it easy to take walks. But the Twins still deserve credit in doing what they should and taking those walks. My hope is that seeing how much taking walks helped them win games will help them continue to be patient as the season moves on. Especially Rosario. He has an incredible talent to get the barrel to the ball and with just a little patience to get better pitches to hit he could be a big time hitter. Buxton needs to be dropped in the order starting tonight. He never should have been in the 3 hole to start, but he's clearly pressing and trying to do too much right now. He needs to hit in the bottom 3rd until he relaxes and starts having success. Overjoyed with the success of the team so far, but have a terrible feeling in my gut that we're watching Mollie completely torpedo Buxton's career by putting him in a terrible position. It's amazing how much more fun it is to watch good baseball than that trash we had to watch last year. Even if they don't make the playoffs or even reach .500 I'll be much happier with it all if they just continue to put up professional at bats and play sound defense.- 42 replies
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Article: Paul Molitor's Opening Day Redemption
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like the overall construction of the order yesterday, except for Buxton in the 3 hole. A good September is nice and all, but we all know September stats aren't overly telling due to roster expansion. Buxton looked confident and aggressive in spring, but didn't exactly light the world on fire. Hicks looked confident and aggressive a few years back in spring and we learned awfully quick that that doesn't mean much. Buxton is the future of your franchise and putting him in a spot with excessive pressure when he's had no real success in the bigs outside of 1 September surge doesn't make sense. "He struck out, one of three on the day, but I'll still take him in that spot right now" suggests you'll accept him in the 3 hole until he continues to strike out in big situations at which point you'd like to see him dropped in the order. If that's what happens it's an absolute failure on Mollies part. Buxton has the talent to make Mollie look like a genius by ripping off a .330 10 hr 30 RBI month and we all hope he does. But his track record shows he's more likely to have a .220 1 hr 4 RBI month and force Mollie to lower him in the lineup and crush his confidence. I don't understand the logic of putting so much more pressure on the kid instead of just letting him hit in the bottom 3rd and find some success before moving him to the heart of the order. This very well could have been an outlier since Mollie wanted his lefties in the lineup yesterday and there was a nasty lefty on the mound, but even in that case Polanco, who has shown he can hit big league pitching already, would have been a better choice. Flip Polanco and Buxton and I love the lineup. Buxton's speed on in front of Dozier as the lineup turns over sure would be nice too. -
Article: Just One Of 162, But Twins Win Felt Big
chpettit19 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Loved the win, and loved the fact that they did it by playing solid, fundamental baseball. Taking walks when given to them and playing good defense. Hopefully they can keep that up all year. That being said, am I the only one with a huge concern over hitting Buxton in the 3 hole? Kid has great potential and looks like a totally different hitter now, but he has still never had real success in the bigs. I know he had a good September, but it's pretty broadly accepted that September stats should be taken with a grain of salt due to roster expansion. He's finally showing that he may be turning a corner after a good spring training so I don't understand why you would throw him in a spot with a ton of added pressure at this point. It very likely may have been simply because Mollie wanted his lefties to hit and they had a tough lefty on the mound, but if that was the concern why not switch Buxton and Polanco? Buxton needs to just go out and play as pressure free as possible to find some success and then move up the order. Polanco has shown he can hit big league pitching. I don't like the added pressure on Buxton at all. I think he's a confident guy and a few bad games in the 3 hole won't kill that confidence, but why even put him in that position?- 76 replies
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Article: Tyler Jay and Baseball's Evolving Bullpen
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1. I agree with all the people saying postseason Miller isn't something we're going to see during the regular season from any team for quite a while. You'd blow your guy's arm out in a month and a half. 2. I'd say the reason the Indians and Cubs were able to use their "closers" in different situations is more because of bullpen depth than it was out of those guys simply being so good. In the playoffs the games are generally all very close and getting out of a jam in the 5th-8th inning by using your best arm is only good when you can bring in someone else you trust to get those 3 outs in the 9th. The Royals are still the real blueprint people are/should be following. It's getting 3+ arms that can get 3 outs with 0 runs on the board almost every time out. At that point you can use them however you see fit. The Royals prefered set innings and just knew the other team wasn't scoring after the 6th, while the Cubs and Indians mixed and matched their power arms and had them going at different times. The Orioles have followed the Royals set roles strategy to great success with Brach, O'day, and Britton. The true blueprint is to have multiple arms you can really rely on and then it's up to your manager to know his guys well enough to know if they need set roles or if you can move them around like Miller. Chapman clearly hated pitching anything other than the 9th inning in a save situation and it nearly cost them the World Series. It was the only thing you could say Joe Maddon didn't do perfectly correct, but he didn't have a great read on Chapman or at least wasn't able to fully convince him that he was being used correctly. 3. As for the Jay draft pick...I'm not a fan. When you have a top 10 pick you have to nail it. I'm not an advocate for "drafting for need." Especially that high in the draft. There will always be a need for pitching. "You can never have too much pitching." But you need to get your pick right and drafting the guy with the highest ceiling and best chance of reaching that ceiling is the best way to do that. Collect assests and then consalidate them when the time is right. The argument that Benintendi would still be in the low minors for the Twins if we had drafted him is a huge indictment of the way the Twins do things. He is better than any Twins outfielder right now and if you're looking at things objectively the Twins would trade any player on their roster for him right now. He'd be the best player on the Twins right now. Buxton is the only guy you could argue would block Benintendi. But there's 3 outfield spots so that wouldn't be a problem. Rosario and Kepler are not even close to the type of player Benintendi is. He's going to hit in the top 5 of the best offense in baseball. As far as the draft goes, taking big time college bats is a safer bet than taking any arm. It's all really about the amount of risk you're willing to take and weighing ceiling verses floor. A dominant college reliever has a pretty reasonable floor, but their ceiling is also relatively limited and the likelihood that they reach that ceiling is much smaller than the likelihood that an elite college bat reaches his. Draft assests and trade from positions of strength to fill positions of need. -
Article: Leadoff Candidate Conundrum
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like having as many dangerous hitters at the top of the order as possible. Having a Schwarber or Santana type guy at the top provides big advantages in the late innings. Focusing on how someone does leading off an inning is focusing on the wrong thing, I think. He's only guarenteed to lead off 1 inning. It's nice to have a guy who can work the count and make the pitcher work right out of the gate, but also be a threat to take that first pitch, get-me-over fastball 400 ft into the bleachers. Then late in the game when it's close and you're scratching for runs you want to have a dangerous guy up as soon as the line up turns over. You want a guy with some extra base pop and RBI skills to help drive in 2 out runs when someone at the bottom of the order gets on. And you want to follow him up with another good hitter. I never understood the Punto, Casilla, etc. 2 hole hitter. Why would you turn your line up over and have a guy who can't hit sitting there trying to drive in those big runs. Put your best hitters at the top of the order and give them as many PAs as possible throught the year to maximize the damage they can do. -
I don't know if you seriously think a front office that's been in place for 3 months needs to be taken to task or not, but it seems a little aggressive to me. What moves would you like to have seen them make? I can see frustration with no real bullpen improvement, but other than that I don't know what moves you wanted them to make. I really would have liked to have seen Greg Holland get signed and there were a few other decent options out there, but with only 2 decent trade chips and a really weak free agent class in the areas that the Twins drastically need to improve I'm not sure what the front office really could have done.
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- miguel sano
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Article: Falvey's First Stand
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
From what I've seen on a number of the TD forumst just about everyone wanted Dozier dealt. The difference is whether or not it was a smart move to trade your best player and a proven MLBer for 1 pitching prospect. I don't think that's a smart use of your assets. De Leon isn't Urias or some other 20, 21, 22 year old who may be a top of the rotation guy. There's very few people out there that think he's a number 1 or 2 arm, and I think this situation shows that the Twins scouts and FO personnel didn't believe he was a number 1 or 2. He's 24 which isn't old for a prospect, but isn't young either. Most people think his upside, not floor, is a number 3 arm. If you want more young upside arms in the organization trading your best player for 1 guy who's upside is a middle of the rotation arm isn't the way to go. -
Article: Falvey's First Stand
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm with you on almost all of this. It is disappointing that there's really nothing that should get us excited for the upcoming season beyond the hopeful next steps of Buxton and Sano. My question, though, is what things did you want the FO to make happen? We all want to see better pitchers take the mound for the Twins this season, but the FO can't just make them appear. There were a few options out there for the guys to look into, but I just don't see any moves that would have made significant improvements. -
Article: Falvey's First Stand
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You can't say there's a chance he develops a quality breaking pitch and follow it with the only risk being his shoulder. There's a clear risk that a 24 year old who hasn't developed a 3rd pitch yet (that's the way I'm reading your post) never develops a 3rd pitch and 2 pitch starters do not have "really high floors." It's been mentioned a lot that most evaluators see his ceiling as a number 3 starter. That's not a really high ceiling let alone a really high floor. -
Article: Falvey's First Stand
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm a huge fan of prospects and love all the lists and rankings and info that come out on them. I follow it more than the average baseball fan. But prospects are just prospects. Dozier isn't a world beater and is probably at least slightly over valued in our fan minds because that's pretty basic human nature. My preference has been to trade away our veteran players for prospects for the last 5 years, but the veterans that should have been traded were the ones we were bringing in for 1 year and then extending after they had career years in their 30s. Those are the guys you trade for what you can get and hope one of the prospects hit and you get a good player. Trading an established MLB All Star for 1 prospect isn't the way you rebuild. The Rays trade is interesting, but we need to remember that they're in a different situation than the Twins. They're closer to competing than the Twins are and if De Leon hits they can trade from their excess of starting pitchers to fill holes. The Twins have 2 trade chips anyone would want (other than Buxton and Sano type young guys). I would have preferred both Dozier and Santana being traded, but trading either of them for 1 prospect wouldn't be helpful. Even if De Leon turns into the next Kershaw it doesn't mean the Twins screwed up by not getting him. Right now all he is is a prospect who's never thrown anywhere near 200 innings, while Dozier is a streaky hitter, he is a proven MLB player. I also don't understand the frustration with the FO so far. Would it have been nice if the roster had major changes and we would be competing for championships starting in 2017. I'd love that. But I don't know what realistic moves people think could have been made. Even if they wanted to go out and make huge splashes and spend a ton of money I don't know what they could have done. They need pitching. The offense is serviceable. Would it be nice to have Trumbo, Encarnacion, Napoli, Desmond, "whoever else you thought was a good free agent bat?" Yes it would be awesome to have a bunch of big sluggers and watch the ball fly out at record rates and score a ton of runs. Ask the Rockies and they'll tell you you still won't win if you can't get outs. There were no pitchers on the free agent market this year that would have made any drastic improvement to our rotation. There were some bullpen arms that would have really helped, but the prices were insane for the good ones. It's very realistic to think the Twins will add another piece or 2 from the left over free agents as prices continue to come down, but none of them will make a huge difference. And as far as trades go I don't know what the expectations could have been there either. Again they only have 2 pieces to trade that could bring any return that would be helpful. Trading Santana means you then have 0 good, reliable starters for this season. I would be ok with that, but you better bring back multiple arms that could help down the road. Dozier is too good to only bring back 1 prospect of De Leon's level. At that point trading people just to do it so people think you're doing things is counterproductive. Hold onto Dozier and hope the market opens up more down the road and if not enjoy him hitting 25+ homers the next 2 years and go from there. This was a rough offseason to take over a team like this as there weren't many realistic moves to be made to improve the major league roster. -
Article: Falvey's First Stand
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Trading Dozier for De Leon isn't the same as trading him for 6 years of a number 3. It's trading him for the possibility of a number 3. There's a huge difference there. De Leon may never be a number 4 or 5 big league pitcher let alone a number 3. -
Article: Other Offseason Shopping Needs
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I didn't say they weren't doing things. I said they were doing what they could in their way. I'm sure everyone in the clubhouse is doing what they can to connect with each other and to help everyone else out. They all want to win and helping each other is part of doing that. I'm not saying Dozier and Mauer aren't doing that, I'm saying Joe Mauer isn't the type of personality that young players flock to. He's obviously different behind closed doors, but he's a generally quiet guy who doesn't show a great deal of emotion. He's more of the stereotypical "old school" player in that way. Dozier certainly has an outgoing personality and I'm sure he's doing what he can with them as well. It's not surprising to hear EE is often talking with the young guys. My point is that Rosario and Sano especially are emotional young guys who play with some flair. That's not at all the type of player Joe Mauer is. And in general people tend to gravitate towards people who are similar to themselves in those ways. If Joe could get Rosario to buy into 1/10th of the patience he has at the plate Rosario would be much better of a hitter for it. But to get people to buy into what you're preaching you have to connect with them and I just don't believe Joe Mauer is a guy who connects well with those types of players. I have no problem believing Dozier is someone who can connect better with them. But neither of those guys are a Torii Hunter type personality who can really bring an entire clubhouse together. And I don't believe Paul Molitor is either. Joe Maddon and Terry Francona got a ton of praise for their in game decisions during the post season and during their careers. They're very smart baseball minds. But they're even better at getting the most out of their teams by how they run their clubhouse and how they make their players feel. That is obviously made easier by winning games and having the caliber of players they have, but Joe did it with the Rays when they were awful and Terry has done it the last few years with the Indians when they weren't very good. I have no problem admitting this is based off the read I get by watching them on TV and that sort of thing, but I thought there was a pretty clear difference in the clubhouse culture between 2015 and 2016. And I think Hunter was a huge part of it. And I think it matters. But like I said in my original post I could be completely off. -
Article: Other Offseason Shopping Needs
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the Twins could use a hispanic, veteran bat. This could all be completely off, but I just feel like there's a gap between the veterans and the young guys in the club house. I just can't imagine Sano, Polanco, Rosario, or even Buxton and Kepler are real close with Mauer or Dozier. I think Dozier probably does what he can to help the young guys out in their transition and Mauer probably does in his own way, but they're not guys that can really connect with those young guys. I don't think it was a complete coincedence that the 1 good year they've had in the last 6 was the year Hunter was in the clubhouse. I think getting someone who could help guide the young guns would be incredibly helpful. Someone who has been to the postseason. Someone who maybe had their struggles early in their career and worked through them. Someone with some energy and attitude. The answer to a lot of those criteria is Jose Bautista. Unfortunately everything I've heard is that he's not in Toronto right now cuz he's not well liked in the clubhouse. Maybe he'd be helpful for half a season before they flipped him for a midlevel prospect. But I think the Twins need someone who can connect with the youth that's coming. I just don't see anyone in the clubhouse that can. Maybe Ervin Santana? But between Dozier, Mauer and Molitor (the 3 guys that should be the leaders) it just doesn't feel like they're people that connect well with the guys that are the future of this franchise. Franklin Gutierrez is another interesting veteran bat. -
The idea that a 103 loss team can have a "roster crunch" or possibly compete for a championship this year are the exact reasons they've been so terrible for the last 6 years (minus one fluke year). Robbie Grossman, JJ Hardy*, Phil Hughes, Kendrys Morales*, Glen Perkins, Trevor Plouffe, Ervin Santana**, Brian Dozier**, Kurt Suzuki, Josh Willingham List of guys off the top of my head that either weren't traded while having a career year or just plain being a heck of a trade piece on a team going nowhere (1 decent prospect for any of them not named Perkins would have been better than keeping them while we continued to suck), *were traded, but were traded at the bottom of their value for pieces that had absolutely no chance of ever being a piece on a championship team, or **are current pieces of an awful team that haven't been traded despite the fact that the team will continue to struggle in the near future. Yes, I realize a Dozier trade is a possibility, but with this terrible free agent pitching class it is a perfect time to shop Ervin and I haven't seen any reliable reports that the Twins have even considered it strongly. The Twins need 4 starting pitchers to compete. Some of them may already be in the system, but other than Ervin there isn't a starting pitcher on the staff from last year that would pitch in the postseason for a true contender. The Twins have refused to be realistic about themselves or were just really, really, really bad about assessing their ability to compete with other major league baseball teams. The White Sox have possibly already passed the Twins in the rebuild timeline and it took them 2 days and 2 trades. The Twins didn't have a Chris Sale to trade in the last few years, but they had veteran guys who could have brought back at least 1 very good prospect. And they had Glen Perkins closing games on a 90 loss team for years. He could have brought back multiple nice pieces. Now the Twins have put themselves back in the crappy situation of being in the middle of the pack for the next hand full of years if Buxton and Sano turn out. We have more solid prospects coming up, but they won't just step in and be big time major league players who are able to compete for championships. By the time we have 25 guys who can help compete for a title it'll be time to start talking about what we can get for Buxton and Sano (assuming they do become who they could). Playing the "we're trying to compete this year" game when you have no realistic chance to compete is the worst possible strategy and it's been our strategy for a decade. Everyone points at the Cubs and Astros as teams who rebuilt right. And they were awful, completely awful, for a few years because they traded every veteran for prospects. Now the White Sox are doing it. Until the Twins are willing to be real with themselves and trade guys who won't be around or helping when they are realistically going to be able to compete they will stick in the middle and go nowhere. You need to get good value for Dozier and his streakiness has made it hard to trade him the last few years, but you need to trade him before this year's trade deadline. As for a roster crunch...there's no such thing on a 103 loss team or a team that's lost 90+ in 5 of the last 6 years.. That's a ridiculous idea. It is possible to have a terribly run franchise that is WAY too loyal to average (at best) veterans at the expense of younger, better players. That isn't a roster crunch, though. It's just poor management of assets.
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Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think the Twins or anyone here is asking for a "haul." But the Tigers got 2 good pitching prospects in return. That seems reasonable for Dozier and appears to be what the Twins are asking for. Fullmer was the rookie of the year and Cessa is holding his own in the bigs at the age of 24 and looks to have a little more in him. That's a 1 and 3 starter. If you think De Leon is a 1 you should be asking for one of their other top 10 prospects with him and that appears to be what's happening. A proven MLB all-star position player should never be traded in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect.- 146 replies
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Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ok then I think you're completely wrong about the entire thing. You really think other teams care that this report came out? They don't. The report is simply stating that the Twins won't leave Brian Dozier and the rest of their roster in limbo forever. They didn't say they'll never reopen negotiations. They have a season to prepare for and having this situation hanging over their head all offseason is bad for their team. I think you're overestimating what media reports mean to teams. Again, in this day and age everything is made public. All this report says is that the Twins need to move on from this situation and need to know what their team will look like moving into the season. If a team wants to get Dozier they can put their best deal on the table. If it isn't what they want they'll tell everyone "Thanks for the offer, but we're moving forward as is. If you want to offer us something better than this at a later date you have our number." This report is not an ultimatum as there will be no repercussions or a change in their relationship. It's way less aggressive than you seem to think it is. This will have absolutely 0 effect on any later negotiations with the Dodgers or any other organization.- 146 replies
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Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
No, he works for the Minneapolis Start Tribune. Bet it wouldn't be too hard to get in contact with him (in fact his email address is lneal@startribune.com if you wanna give him some info). My point is that 1. you have no idea how it went down behind the scenes 2. in this day and age everything is made public so it's not surprising this was 3. I disagree that it's bad that it's been made public that the Twins won't just take whatever trade you put in front of them.- 146 replies
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Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Your point makes sense if you're correct with how it all went down. Who says it was even the Twins that released this? Is it completely impossible that the Dodgers called this reporter? It's more likely that it came from the Twins, but not the only possibility. And my guess would be that the Twins told the Dodgers and every other team they've talked with that this is their deadline. Probably days before this story even came out. To assume you know what's actually happening behind the scenes is pretty presumptive of you. It's a new front office who has no real track record of negotiating with teams. Having it known publicly that they wouldn't be pushed around and forced to take a crap trade is not a bad thing. If they get fleeced on their first big trade the entire league will look at them as a team that can be taken advantage of. This all would have been way better had the Dodgers thrown 2 top 7 prospects at them right away and the deal was done in a flash, but that's not how it went. The teams are playing a game of chicken now and having the rest of the league know that we didn't just cave and give in because the big, bad Dodgers told us to is not bad. In this day and age everything is made public. The "deadline" being made public is not a huge deal.- 146 replies
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Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins can't come out of the Dozier trade with 1 pitching prospect. It would be a complete disaster. Adam Eaton is a heck of a defender in RF and a solid lead off hitter with a team friendly contract for 5 years. His contract length and affordability got the White Sox an extra prospect. Eaton is not a good defender in CF, which is where the Nats are apparently planning on playing him. That drastically decreases his value. The Sox got the Nats 3 best pitching prospects (or at least 3 of their top 4). 2 of which will be pitching in the majors this season. If the Twins were to bring back simply De Leon it would be a complete failure on the part of the front office. Giolito is (or was depending on who you talk to) the top pitching prospect in baseball last year. Lopez and De Leon are ranked very similar to each other. Dunning was a first round pick this year. I don't care how nice Eaton's contract is, he is not worth that much more than Dozier. The difference is how desperate the Nats were. Their timetable is 2 years and they know it. They have the money to spend on big free agents, but that doesn't mean they just have an eternally open window to win. They had a hole, felt desperate to fill it and gave up what the White Sox wanted. To this point the Dodgers don't feel that desperate. It's a risk to keep Dozier into the season as he could start off horribly or De Leon could take a step forward and start out super well. It's a risk worth taking. Trading Dozier straight up for 1 prospect is not getting value for him. It's getting the most you can right now, but it is an incredibly poor use of your resources. The Twins have seemed to do everything they can to make it appear that there is some sort of bidding war and more teams interested in Dozier. The Dodgers didn't fall for it. Friedman is too smart to bid against himself. Putting the stories in the media is to get it on the owners radar. The Twins can't trick Friedman into giving up more, but they can convince Dodgers ownership that Utley playing second will ruin their chance to win a title. Convincing ownership that their window is closing and Dozier is the key to taking advantage of their current window is how you get more in this deal. Once ownership feels this is a deal they need to get done they call their employee, Mr. Friedman, and tell him to quit messing around and do what it takes to get this last piece in place. The Twins are playing this as well as they can and hopefully it turns out well for them. But trading him straight up for a prospect (and that's all De Leon is) just because that's all that's available is not a good decision.- 146 replies
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Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I disagree. Atlanta is very much rebuilding. Locking up your 4 WAR, 26 year old, gold glove centerfielder through his arb years plus a little at a very reasonable rate is what smart rebuilding teams do. It gives you cost certainty. It's what the Twins will (or at least should) do with Buxton and Sano once the new front office has a good idea of what they think those 2 will be in the long run. You don't need to win at a super high level to fill a new stadium well. It fills itself because people want to come see the new stadium. The next couple years is when you need to be winning. And after the huge haul of prospects they got last winter and all the payroll they've cut they've positioned themselves very well to start winning big the next couple years because at least a couple of their young arms will turn out to be good MLB pitchers. And they'll be very well set up to wait for the big market teams to blow all their payrolls on Harper, Machado, Donaldson, and Kershaw and jump in to sign one or two of the 15 (maybe an exaggeration) pretty big time free agents after the 2018 season. As for signing 40 year old pitchers and a decent utility guy that's also what smart rebuilding teams do. It's what TR and the Twins refused to do. They'll flip those guys at the deadline for even more near MLB ready prospects if they are having good years and keep them for a full year of leadership for the young guys if they aren't. 2 years for Rodriguez isn't long term. You can simply flip him at either deadline or during the offseason or have him as a solid backup as you get your youngsters experience. Atlanta is doing exactly what the Cubs and Astros did and what MN refused to do. They're rebuilding the most efficient way. And you bring in those "value" guys hoping you find a diamond in the rough. If not you DFA them without thinking twice. Atlanta is doing what MN should be doing. And trading from your stash of top end pitching prospects for a guy who's going to leave in 2 years is how you set your rebuild back a few years. Atlanta is in wait and see mode.- 146 replies
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Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is the front office's only move. It's been made pretty clear that the Dodgers are the only team interested in trading for Dozier. Nobody is being fooled by the Cardinals, Nats, Braves, or Giants talk. Those teams either don't have the prospects to make a deal or are in the same boat as the Twins and 2 years of Dozier isn't a need. The Twins have to get the Dodgers to become a little desperate somehow and this is the last card they have to play before the season actually starts. They need to convince the Dodgers they are more than ok keeping Dozier and really won't give him up for just 1 pitching prospect no matter how well regarded he is. I think this front office is smart enough to keep him if they don't get the deal they want. Unlike the Johan trade that was completed simply to do it. They will keep Dozier for as long as it takes to get a package worth dealing him for. If nothing gets done now you wait for the season and hope Dozier starts well and either somebody loses an infielder and gives something up for Dozier or the Dodgers continue to suck against lefties and they finally kick in one of their other well regarded guys. Getting De Leon straight up for Dozier would be a disaster of a trade.- 146 replies
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Article: 2016 Report Cards: Outfield
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The gist of my post was that all of these guys need to get better. Rosario is further along so his leash will be shorter (though ultimately he goes to the bench if he stumbles, no doubt). He needs to improve quickly. Buxton is still in danger of being bounced to the minors because his very low floor seems to match the very high expectations. Kepler is the newest of the bunch and at this point he has proven himself adequately. Of the three, he deserves the most slack. I don't know that hitting .230 is proving himself adequately. He's certainly showed he has the physical ability to hit major league pitching. Now the real proving comes. The league has real information on him and will attack his weaknesses now. He needs to show he can make the adjustment to that. He didn't make the adjustment at all at the end of last year. The optimist in me thinks the last 2 years have been great for Buxton. I think he's strong mentally and the struggles didn't crush him like they can. He's been forced to make adjustments and has shown he can do it. His struggles showed the glaring weakness we have in developing players as they tried to make him into a player he isn't and took away his athleticism. The hope that September was for real is in the fact that he started being an athlete again. He used his leg kick no matter the count and stopped being so robotic. He was just out there playing baseball and being the athletic freak that he is.- 65 replies
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Article: 2016 Report Cards: Infield
chpettit19 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't know that I can give Dozier an A+. Yes, 42 homeruns is a ton, especially for a 2b. But he got that with a "greatest of all time" type second half. He was awful. Like questioning if he needs to be sent down for a week or 2 awful for the first half. Consistency has to count for something. And batting average has to count for something. Putting up out of this world numbers when your team is completely out of it is only impressive to an extent. He was expecting this team to compete when the season started and felt that he needed to be a big part of that. And he was at the head of the line when it came to not performing to start the year. I'd give him an A-. Still by far the best player, but being bellow replacement level for the first couple months has to hurt him a little. Cuz it really hurt the team. I'd guess it's also a big part of the reason we aren't seeing huge interest in him. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the 2 teams he makes the most sense for. And they're both really smart front offices. You can't fool them by just throwing 42 homeruns in their face and expect them to dish out 3 of their top 10 guys. 42 homeruns is not sustainable. The best chance for a huge return for Dozier is to keep him and hope he gets off to a huge start knowing there's no pressure this year cuz the team is expected to suck. If he hits 20 in the first half you'll get 3 top 5 to 7 prospects from a team with an injury or just a need for some right handed pop. Mark Trumbo is a much better option for a team just looking for right handed power as he'll "only" cost a 1st round pick and it appears that his price tag isn't going to be that high as him and every other big right handed bat not named Cespedes seems to have terribly misread the market this winter.- 45 replies
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- brian dozier
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