chpettit19

I agree with everyone's bullpen fear and that increases my frustrations with Molitor's obsession with bunting and playing for 1 run. As the OP, and some comments, said, this team tends to score in bunches and that's how they win games. I think anyone can beat anyone on any given day and have hope that Ervin could go in and shut down the Yanks enough to give them a real shot to win that game. In any series after that I'm hoping and praying that Molitor doesn't lose us a game by bunting his 3 hole hitter, or playing for 1 run in the first, or any of the other "old school" things he tends to do when this team needs to be playing for big leads to take pressure off a less than stellar, or proven, bullpen.

It's not a different context. We're not talking about running the Minnesota Twins Organization. We're talking about managing the team on the field. And yes, if your job is to manage a small group at Exxon it is like a small business. The CEO of Exxon doesn't expect you to do anything other than manage that small group. This thread is discussing the manager of a baseball team. That individual is responsible for 25 players and a number of coaches. So 30-40 people. That's his only job. That's more reflective of running a small business than running a corporation. In a small business you're trying to maximize profits and when managing a team you're doing the same thing, only the profits are wins not money. You job is to put the people under you in the best position possible to succeed at their jobs so the unit as a whole can produce results.

Managing a professional baseball team involves dealing with 25 players and a handful of coaches. That's a small business. Every manager in baseball is scrutinized by the media and fans. If you can't handle that then you weren't the person for the job in the first place. To suggest that Jake Mauer shouldn't be hired simply because his brother is on the team is to suggest that Jake Mauer couldn't manage 25 players and a handful of coaches and their opinions about him and his brother. That is managing a small business with a family member involved, not running a corporation. The manager is not the president of baseball operations or GM or owner or any of that. His job is simply to get the best out of the 25 players he has. ​This article and message board is literally based around us questioning the current manager of the Twins. A number of people on this site question the use of Joe Mauer already. If Falvey and Levine are going to make all their decisions on hires, fires, signings, etc. based off what the media and fans say and not what they've decided is the best answer then it's time for a new front office already.

That's not quite apples to apples there. At the end of the day it doesn't matter if you or I or anyone outside the clubhouse questions the managers moves. If Jake is open and honest with the other 24 guys on the roster that's all that matters. If "random scout A" or "season ticket salesman B" questions Jake or anyone else in a management position who cares? The manager's job is to get the best out of the 25 guys on the roster at any given time. A lot of this, I assume, is based off the idea that Jake would continue hitting Joe in the heart of the order. What if Jake comes in and tells Joe he's hitting 7th cuz he's just not fit to hit 3rd anymore? Would there be concern then? As long as the manager is clear with his bosses and the team on why he's doing things the rest shouldn't matter. So it really is more like a small, family owned business in that sense.

Totally agree that outsiders, and other players on the club, would have doubts in the back of their minds about why decisions are being made about Joe by his brother. I don't think that Jake would consciously make decisions based off Joe being his brother, though. And I think plenty of people already question decisions being made about Joe right now and for the last number of years as he declines but continues to hit in the heart of the order. That is something the powers that be would need to take into consideration, but if all their other assessments point to Jake being the best possible candidate to help this team succeed then you can't let the doubts of some outsiders stop you from making that move. If it's a close call then those doubts could swing things against Jake. But you don't pass up on the most talented candidate because of that. I don't believe Jake is head and shoulders above others, but just in general, you take the best candidate because talent is still talent.

While Win-Loss record is the easiest way for the average person to judge a manager I don't think it's what's going to matter to Falvey and Levine. They're analytics people and this teams analytics are not great. As the original article here states, the Twins have been outscored by 50 runs this year, which is good enough for 21st in the majors and 4th in the division. They've been quite successful in 1 run games, but one would expect that to regress to the mean next year and the Win-Loss record would reflect that. The front office's job is to take a big picture approach and be realistic about where this team is at. That's why they quickly flipped to sellers at the deadline when it was clear the Twins couldn't hang with the elite teams they'd be facing in the playoffs. ​When it comes to making a decision on Molitor I'm sure a big part of it will come down to how well he aligns with their thought processes. I'd be willing to bet large sums of money that Falvey and Levine cringe every time Molitor bunts and wastes an out. Molitor appears to still have quite a bit of an "old school" approach to the game and I'm not sure that mixes well with the approach of this front office. I'm not sure what he bases his lineups on, but if the, seemingly, constant tweaking is based on anything other than numbers I'd be willing to guess that the front office doesn't really agree with that either. ​I, personally, don't think Molitor is the right manager for this team, but as many others have said, I don't know enough to be 100% confident in that position. I'd enjoy seeing a more "21st century" style of play from the manager and wouldn't be surprised at all if the front office makes a move to a guy who approaches the game differently than Molitor. I don't think Molitor kills this team by being manager, but I also don't think his game strategies make them the best team possible. Overachieving Win-Loss record or not.

Mr. Mauer needs to send him a Quick Swing and shorten up that swing. All Star break should be dedicated to him deciding what his swing will look like for the rest of the year and working on it day in and day out. Shortening swing and recognizing breaking pitches. All he should be working on from now until opening day next year.

Why does the surgery make him being a top prospect a joke? He was a top 100 prospect in all of MiLB coming into the year. Now you think he's not even top 5 in the organization? The surgery won't effect his skills in any way. It means he'll arrive in the bigs a year later than he would have before, but his ceiling and skills are still the same ones that made him a top 100 prospect. You argue that Romero should be higher because he has the highest ceiling, yet he's struggled a ton with injuries for years now. If you want his ceiling to matter and not his injuries then you should want Kirilloff's ceiling to matter and not this 1 injury.

Fair enough. This is what makes these exercises so fun/interesting. Other than Thorpe, I can see why you rank those other guys highly, but I don't know that them being "significantly higher than Kirilloff" makes a lot of sense to me. He most certainly will drop off the top 100 lists for the rest of this year, but we should expect him to be right back on them next year when he starts playing again. If Romero puts together an entire healthy season I'd put him right up there with the others I have in my top 4 and once we see what Javier does in the states we'll have a better idea of where he's at development wise and what sort of prospect he really is. To me if you're hoping on someone to be a big time bat Kirilloff and Javier are probably the ones I'd hope on. I don't see Gordon or Lewis ever bringing a great deal of power, but I think the potential for Kirilloff or Javier to be 30 homer guys is there. Gordon and Lewis bring higher defensive potential and this exercise is all about weighing different potentials and likelihoods to reach those potentials.

He was a top 100 prospect on basically every prospect ranking before the season. I don't see how this injury suddenly means his talent drops to barely being in the top 10 in the organization. If you believe Diaz is now a top 100 prospect that's one thing, but Tommy John doesn't really hurt people's careers anymore, other than losing a year on the field. With a position player it has even less of an effect. As far as Diaz "greatly out performing" him I'd disagree with that as well. In his second season in the Appy league he put up slightly better numbers than Kirilloff did in his first year while being a year older. He's playing well in low A this year, but he's not blowing the league away or anything. Kirilloff had a strikeout percentage under 14% in his age 18 season coming out of an area that isn't known for incredibly great high school baseball so he made his professional debut at the age of 18 and more than held his own against a higher level of talent than he'd seen over an extended period of time. And, on a lesser note, I'm not a subscriber to the "this position needs to hit like this" school of thought. I think baseball is getting further and further from defensive positions dictating offensive numbers. Playing up the middle no longer means you're a glove first, bat is a bonus, kind of guy anymore. If he's a .280 25 hr guy playing good defense in the outfield he's a top 2-3 guy in our system.

The loss of a year is why I have him after Gonsalves, but TJ doesn't really concern me in this day and age. Sano seems to have recovered well. He was the 15th pick and came out and did exactly what we'd all want that guy to do.

Is the TJ surgery the reason Kirilloff is so far down on so many lists? First round pick out of high school who hit over .300 and was the Appy league player of the year in his first season. Doesn't seem to be a lot of love for the kid who has the chance to be a pretty darn good lefty bat for years to come. I'd go... 1. Gordon (simply because he's doing it in the minors already) 2. Lewis (have to have faith the team picked a guy at #1 who is a top prospect) 3. Gonsalves 4. Kirilloff 5. Romero 6. Jorge 7. Jay (I have hopes for him still being a starter down the road, but will take a big time reliever as well) 8. Blankenhorn 9. Diaz 10. Stewart (Mostly wishful thinking that Falvie has some cool pitching development tricks up his sleeve) 8.

Ah, interesting. Learn something new every day. Thanks!

It's also possible Carlson has no intention of going pro straight out of high school and he made it clear to everyone he was going to school. The Mariners do a reverse of what the Twins possibly did and saved a small chunk of money by using the 55th pick on a guy they don't intend to sign so they can go above slot on an earlier pick (or later pick for that matter).

Carlson is from Burnsville, not Eden Prairie. But otherwise solid article.

That's the thing, though...no baseball people are saying he's the second coming of Ruth or any big time prospect. That SI cover did nobody any favors. Greene isn't really considered a better prospect than Wright etc.. There's a handful of guys who are basically considered the same level of prospects at the top of the draft. Bryce Harper is what you would consider a "second coming of Ruth" type prospect. Greene is not in that class. Not even close, really. This is not a strong draft. 17 year old throwing 100 gets a lot of attention in a weak class. If he was in the same draft class as Harper there wouldn't have been any debate at all about who was the better prospect. Heck, if you just want a teenager throwing gas why not take hometown boy Carlson? He's throwing 96 and has offspeed offerings.

The Twins have a -28 run differential right now. Yes, a big part of that is from the Astros series, but even before that debactle they weren't getting better than about a +5 in run differential. They are not a legitimate threat to go deep into the playoffs by any means. And no, I don't buy into the "anything can happen" theory. That's not a way to build a team. They don't have anywhere near the pitching needed for a run this year or next year. Even the biggest of Santana supporters couldn't make any reasonable argument that he will be able to anchor a legitimate WS rotation going into the future (and I'd say he can't do it this year either). There is something to him being a good leader for the young guys as they come up, but that's no reason to keep him. If you get a legitimate prospect and a couple other ok ones you take the deal. Wins and loses are all that count, but you have to look at how the team is getting there, too. The peripheral stats on Santana and this team are not very good. They can't hang with the big boys in the playoffs yet, and sneaking in by winning a terrible division and then getting slaughtered shouldn't be the goal. Santana is pitching out of his mind, but holding on to him during a career year when the team as a whole isn't realistically ready to compete would be the old regime's way of doing things. They'd probably extend him for no reason as well. Hughes, Suzuki, Willingham, the list goes on and on. If you can't compete in the FA market (or choose not to) then you have to trade veterans at their peak value. It's not fun as fans, but it's how you have to do it. If they get a reasonable offer they have to pull the trigger.

I wouldn't be upset by a McKay pick at all. I think Wright would be my first choice, but I'd be ok with McKay. I'm not overly concerned about him being a 1B instead of a middle of the field player. I'd be fine with them taking him and putting him in A+ and letting him work on hitting and hitting alone. He's got a GREAT eye and approach at the plate and I think that goes a long way in a player being able to succeed as they move up the chain. Would everyone complain if he turns into a .300 30 hr 100+RBI middle of the order bat? He's a little smaller than Schwarber, but he reminds me a lot of Schwarber coming out of college. Would we be upset if we drafted Schwarber 1:1? I wouldn't be (yes I know he's struggling right now). And if he focuses on hitting for a 2-3 years and it's clear he's not going to be able to cut it it's pretty nice to know he isn't necessarily a complete bust at that point because you haven't used his arm since he's playing 1B and now you put him on the mound and see if he can become a rotation or bullpen piece. If Wright can't pitch his career is over. I think Wright has a much higher ceiling on the bump, but I'd be ok with McKay for his bat. When a middle of the rotation arm is your backup plan for a guy it's not a bad deal.

The only real debate about Greene is whether or not the Twins feel they can get him to develop 2 secondary pitches. They've scouted him a ton, obviously, and if they've come to the conclusion that he is all velocity and nothing else he's not the pick you make. No organization cares that he was on the cover of SI. Nobody has him in the Harper galaxie of prospects. That SI cover is nice and all, but he's not that type of prospect. The most encouraging and positive scouting reports I've seen on him have him with a plus-plus fastball (obviously) and the possibility for 2 average secondary pitches. Those are the best reports. Nobody I've seen is predicting him to have any plus secondary pitches. That's an awful big risk at pick 1-1.

No control=no success in the bigs (unless you're throwing 103 and are 6'4" with crazy long arms so you're halfway to the plate when you let it go). If you can't move your fastball in and out, up and down or throw your offspeed for strikes when you need to you're going to struggle big time. As far as catchers being to blame it's probably a very small percentage of the blame. At the end of the day it's the pitcher's choice whether to throw what the catcher (or pitching coach) suggests. And that's all it is, a suggestion. I'm guessing the Twins' catchers are going by the scouting reports discussed for each hitter prior to the game and calling pitches accordingly. Someone would have to go back and look at the percentage of times Pressly shook off a pitch and also the number of times he completely missed the spot it was called for. If a catcher calls for a fastball away and it's thrown down the middle it's not the catchers fault for calling the fastball. And pitch framing is only accomplished if you're around the zone. I don't care who the catcher is, if the pitch isn't close to the black there's nothing they can do to "steal a strike" by framing it.

Was just watching MLB Tonight on MLB Network between innings and they were just talking about this. It's hard for a scout first and then an organization afterwards to explain why they take a guy with less velocity and more pitchability. It's part of the struggle of the information age. We all know how hard everyone throws and it's super cool to say our guys throw 100, but if they don't know where it's going they have no future in baseball. But if a scout goes in and tells his bosses they should take the kid throwing 92 with control over the kid throwing 100 with projectability he won't have a job for long. And if the Twins take Wright over Greene they're going to have fans upset because they had the chance to take the 17 year old throwing 100 who had an article in SI all about him.

I know it's fun to think of what a 17 year old throwing 100 could become, but I am yet to see a report from any scout or baseball publication that suggests any of his secondary pitches are going to be above average (I've seen a couple that say he could develop his slider into slightly above average). That's not a starting pitcher in the bigs. As I've seen others say on these threads, I don't want a closer with pick 1:1. I think that's really what he comes down to. Can he develop a secondary pitch, or preferably 2? 100 is fancy and fun, but you cannot be a major league starter if you can't get hitters to worry about a pitch other than your fastball. If the Twins think they can teach him how to throw some legit secondary pitches he's the guy. You plan for the year off he's going to need for Tommy John at some point early in his career (I'm only partly kidding about that), and force him to rely on his secondary stuff in the low minors instead of just blowing gas.

I actually agree with any frustration you have towards the idea of not signing bullpen help or free agents. If by "not trading" you're referring to the guys we've had in the bigs over the last 6-7 years then I agree with you that we should have been open to that. If you're referring to trading prospects I don't understand what you thought that would have accomplished. Instead of losing 95+ they'd lose 90+ and have nobody in the system coming to help and nobody to trade for help and have to rely simply on free agents? I suggested they are going to have to trade Sano before he hits free agency. I don't think that's a crazy idea. Losing your best player for nothing is killer for a mid market team who's owners want to be run as a small market team. Obviously, there's conversations that will have to take place behind the scenes that we'll never know about and the first choice is to extend him a couple years past his arb years and to do it sooner than later, but I don't think it's going out on a limb to say Sano is going to want a big, fat paycheck down the road and the Twins are not likely to pay it.

I wasn't saying there was no talent in the system. I understand how it can be perceived that way, but it wasn't my intent. The most likely outcome of the current system is that it will provide 0 star players, but will produce a number of solid MLB players. The current Twins team has a few guys who could turn into stars, a handful of guys who will be solid players for a number of years, and some old guys we shouldn't be counting on beyond a year or 2. The current pitching staff (starters and bullpen) have 1 guy who may be above average, a handful of guys who can be average (#3 starter, solid bullpen arm), and a whole bunch of junk. Trading away all of your depth in the minors for a single starter gives your pitching staff 2 possible above average starters, a handful of guys who can be (emphasis on can be) average, and a whole bunch of junk without any real depth coming from the minors. That doesn't help the 2017 Twins let alone the 2018-2022 Twins. And while we have good prospects and depth in the minors we don't have anyone that gets you a top ranked pitcher. As someone pointed out earlier it took a top 25 prospect to get a Drew Pomeranz last year. Piling a whole bunch of mid level prospects doesn't get you a #1 or 2 starter. Teams want big time prospects. That means it takes Gordon and Gonsalves to even start a conversation for a pitcher who may actually help. To me this all comes down to the fact that this Twins team is more of a mirage than a true competitor this year. And to me you just don't sacrifice anything of the future for a run during a year where you're not realistically going to win in the playoffs. Getting to the playoffs and getting swept, again, isn't something worth hoping for for me. I know it'd be nice to be there, but I'd prefer they run with the team they have. Win 78-83 games. Get the young guys a ton of at bats while mixing in the guys in the minors here and there to start seeing if they're going to be pieces of the team the next couple years. Draft Kyle Wright and let him advance quickly if he's showing he can. Get him some time in the ML pen at the end of the year and hope he's running 1,2,3 with Berrios and Mejia by June next year with Gonsalves joining by then as well and Romero and Stewart getting cups of coffee to fill in for injuries. Fix the bullpen this offseason and be ready to roll for years. I think much of this is a difference in approach between some of us. I want sustained success with realistic shots at the WS. I don't think trading for a single player this year accomplishes either of those things and actually sets the Twins back from being able to do either because it depletes their depth. I want them to complete this rebuild and then be able to trade both major leaguers and prospects to help maintain success. They're never going to be big players in free agency as the Pohlads just won't pay for that. But trading some major leaguers (probably Sano if we're being realistic) as the reach the end of arbitration to bring in big time prospects and also trading some prospects to help fill holes balances things out and lets them stay competitive. The team is just too far away right now to start making trades for individual players.

At this point in a rebuild, yes. The previous regime's idea of "doing it the right way" and not trading away prospects wasn't their problem. Their problem was they still thought baseball was the same game as it was in late late 90s and early 00s. The game and the way it's played passed them by in a hurry. And they were awful at developing the talent they did have. When you have as many holes as the Twins have had the last decade trading packages of prospects for single players isn't productive in any way. It depletes your system while giving you a couple good players who can't win anything because single players don't win in MLB (go ask Mike Trout). Trading for 1 now gets you 1 guy. And with the prospects we have we're not looking at Kershaw coming back to us. We're looking at a #3 pitcher most likely. That's not making any significant difference this season or the seasons to come. And then what's your plan for getting the other 2? Signing big free agents? Would be nice. But be realistic...that's not happening. So now we have Berrios as a #2 if he works out as we all hope. The #3 we traded our prospects for (Gordon would have to be included, not just the AA arms we have). Mejia as a #4, or #3 if everything goes perfect for him. An aging Santana who is quickly coming back to earth and will continue to decline in the next couple years. That's 4 pretty solid arms, I'll give you that. But who's the 5th starter? And when the injuries come (and they always do) who are #6,7,8? I'd be ok with Berrios starting games 1,4,7 of a playoff series if he turns into what we all hope he does, but he's not carrying you to a World Series title. The Twins have been here before. They were running out the Cy Young winner and 2 MVPs and couldn't make noise in the playoffs. It takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs. The Twins are finally in a position to have some depth and run 25 legitimate major league players out there for years to come if they keep developing their system and supplementing it with some free agents. Don't ruin that for Jeff Samardzija or someone of that ilk. Not trading prospects isn't "doing nothing." It's building through your farm system. Like most teams have to do. How many times have pretty much all of us condemned the old regime for resigning Suzuki, Hughes, etc. after flash in the pan seasons? Getting excited about a solid start record wise and trading away prospects for the hopes of making the playoffs and getting swept in the first round isn't a good strategy. The Twins now have a +1 run differential this year. They aren't legitimate threats to win in the playoffs. And as for the comparisons to the Royals trading for James Shields...if you can show me the Herrera, Davis, Holland bullpen we're going to run out there I'll find that to be a useful comp. That was their strategy. They went bullpen and mediocre starters with 1 guy to be a stopper if needed. The Twins don't have that bullpen that makes it a 6 inning game so having a whole bunch of subpar starters doesn't kill them. And the trade for Shields didn't make a drastic difference, either. I don't think anyone can say there's no way they win if they were running Meyers out there in right instead of Shields on the mound as his playoff stats were not impressive. The front office needs to (and I believe they will) be realistic about what this team is and show some discipline and restraint. They are playing some good baseball most nights, but they aren't dominating by any means.