chpettit19

Nelson Cruz is not going to sign anywhere until after the league announces if the NL is going to have the DH. Doesn't make any sense for him to. Has nothing to do with the Twins. Odo isn't going to sign until Bauer does. Makes no sense for him to. Why set the market as a perceived lower level pitcher instead of waiting for Bauer to do it? Especially when Odo has had incredibly similar numbers to Bauer outside of Bauer's 2 outlier years (2020 being the most questionable in a shortened season where his spin rates went through the roof). Bauer isn't going to be a Twin because his 1 short season breakout at the age of 29 is not worth 35+ mil/year. Bauer has had 2 seasons with an ERA+ over 109. And if you listen to him over the years you'd question that 2020 breakout when he has constantly said the only way to increase your spin rate is to put a foreign substance on the ball. Then suddenly in his FA walk year his spin rate goes through the roof for 11 starts? I don't think I'm throwing 35 mil a year at a guy who had only 1 other year under a 4 ERA prior to that. Bauer is name over production and a terrible investment. The pitching market won't move until Bauer does. Every agent out there has their guy's numbers lined up with his and are just waiting for him to get drastically overpaid so they can go into every meeting saying "look what he got, and my guy has had a similar or better career, show me the money." The 3 worth while SS FAs are all looking to get maximum $ while no team wants to overpay to set the market. This is a very predictably slow offseason as teams look to save money and those willing to spend wait til the end to maximize their dollars on cheaper deals than they'd likely have had to do by signing guys early. Business of baseball.

The Clevinger point is that you're changing the rules of the debate to fit your narrative. You said developing is when you draft someone then they make it to the majors with you. Bringing up Celvinger was to question that premise. We don't know yet if they've figured out minor league development, but now is when we find out. They're showing up and we're going to see. They clearly figured things out at the major league level by improving the performance of a number of outside players they've brought in to the tune of the second best ERA in baseball last year and brought in a guy that immediately turned into the Cy Young runner up. You can choose to see that as completely separate from minor league acquisition and development, but I'd argue that, combined with Falvey being very involved in the Cleveland program that continues to churn out front line starters, it provides a reason for hope that they know how to identify and develop pitching talent. We'll find out over the next few years.

Clevinger was drafted by the Dodgers before being traded to Cleveland so does Cleveland not get credit for developing him? Why does it matter if they drafted them in 1st round, drafted them in the 5th round, signed them from Cuba, traded for them, or signed them from the Saints? Taking them from the bottom of the minors to the majors is developing them. The job of the FO is to acquire players, build a staff of development talent to improve those players, and put the best team on the field for the amount of money their owner lets them spend. Claiming Wisler and turning him into a weapon, trading for Maeda and improving his numbers to a Cy Young level, trading for Odo, signing Pineda, bringing back Thielbar, the list goes on. This front office seems to have proven they can identify talent on the field and in the coaching department and mesh them together. That's their job. So Gore for Lewis. That's it? They made 1 mistake on taking a bat over a pitcher? Lewis and Greene were the top 2 guys in that draft pretty unanimously. So, in hindsight, maybe Gore turns into the better major leaguer, but he wouldn't have been the #1 pick it would have been Greene. Would you rather have Greene than Lewis? And, again, Gore hasn't even reached the majors yet despite having been drafted during the Falvine era. So your number 1 example doesn't even fit your criteria. Is there 1 pitcher in the first round that the Twins could have drafted during the time Falvine was running drafts that has been developed into an above average starter? I don't see any. The point of this article is that the Falvine guys are arriving. Now we get to see if they've got minor league pitching development figured out.

Starting Lewis in the bigs and having him play twice a week should get a FO fired. That is an awful way to see if a kid is ready or give them the chance to continue to develop. Put him in the minors where he can get everyday at bats and work on his game until a spot is open due to injury or trade in the majors or he dominates so much he makes it clear he's the best option. Top prospects should never be sitting on your major league bench 5 days a week. Never.

This FO hasn't repeatedly failed in developing top rotation starters. The previous regime did and they got fired for it. This regime took that awful staff and turned it into a pitching staff with the second best ERA in baseball last year. Now the prospects that they have targeted in trade and the draft, or developed in their system as holdovers from the previous regime, are starting to arrive. Alcala, Duran, Balazovic, and Colina all look like they'll be part of the pen or rotation this year or next. Enloy, Canterino, Sands are right behind them next year or the year after. Are any of them destined for greatness? Who knows. Are Gore or McKay? Who knows. McKay is older than all of those guys and hasn't established himself as some great major leaguer yet. Gore clearly hasn't established himself as ready to step into the Padres rotation either or they wouldn't be out there going after guys and he would've likely gotten a look when all their guys were getting hurt last year. So not sure those comps are really proving your point. First round pitchers since Falvine took over (Bold are picks after Twins so they could've taken): Hunter Greene MacKenzie Gore Brendan McKay Kyle Wright Shane Baz Trevor Rogers JB Bukauskas Clarke Schmidt Alex Faedo David Peterson DL Hall Tanner Houck Seth Romero Brendon Little Casey Mize Ryan Weathers Carter Stewart Grayson Rodriguez Logan Gilbert Cole Winn Matthew Liberatore Brady Singer Ryan Rolison Mason Denaburg JT Ginn Nick Lodolo Alek Manoah Jackson Rutledge Quinn Priester Zack Thompson George Kirby Daniel Espino Blake Walston Ryan Jensen Ethan Small Max Meyer Asa Lacy Emerson Hancock Reid Detmers Garret Crochet Mick Abel Bryce Jarvis Cade Cavalli Nick Bitsko Jared Shuster Bobby Miller Not exactly a ton of guys in there you can be terribly upset about them passing on for Lewis, Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato. Meanwhile the great Cleveland pitching machine has turned out Aaron Civale 3rd round. Shane Bieber 4th round. Mike Clevinger 4th round. Zach Plesac 12th round. Now that doesn't mean they shouldn't be looking to add multiple arms to the rotation and pen, but the idea that they haven't proven they can develop pitching and should be using high picks on them to solve that seems pretty far off. I read the point of this article as chasing Bauer for 5 years 150 mil type signings aren't necessary as we have a handful of people knocking on the door with Maeda and Berrios locked up for a little while still. Again, second best ERA in baseball last year. I'm an advanced stats guy, but if the goal is to give up the fewest runs possible second best in ERA is a pretty good place to be. They have work left to do this offseason on the pitching front, but the pitching hasn't let them down the last 2 postseasons, the offense has. I don't care about the previous teams run by previous coaches and FO. They have nothing to do with the current regime. The current regime has done a great job putting together pitching staffs and there is no real argument against it.

I think the frustrating part is that the Twins and the Padres are pretty similar in their payroll abilities. The Pads will be about 150 this year and I think we all would have expected that from the Twins in a normal 2021. The Pads are doing what I think we all wish the Twins would and treating 2020 as an outlier loss year and taking advantage of the most obvious market inefficiency ever...90% of the league trying to cut money. They are mixing their young, cheap talent (to be fair Twins don't have a Tatis Jr) with expensive veterans to build a complete team. If Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Balazovich, and Duran all hit (not likely, unfortunately) they will be in a spot to have 5 uber cheaper core players for the next 3 years and reasonably priced for the 3 or 4 after that. The Pads believed in their system and took swings on Meyers, Hosmer, and Machado before they saw what all their kids could do and now they're doubling down. Would be fun to see the Twins do the same. If you think Kiriloff and Larnach are ready to be above average MLB bats pencil them in and take a chance or 2 on guys to fill other holes. If you think Lewis is ready some point this year don't spend on a utility IF and make a splash with a deal for Castellanos and Castillo. The Twins could do what the Pads are doing. I get why they aren't, but man it must be fun to be a Padre fan today.

If Gordon and a low level flier gets it done I'd be all for the gold glove defense, power bat, and shot of adrenaline attitude Javy would bring for next year. But I'm not a fan of trading anything "significant" for 1 year rentals. I don't see how the Twins could afford him, but if there's a chance they could extend Javy (or Story, Cleveland will never trade us Lindor) I'd be much more willing to give up something a little more substantial. I think the top 5 guys should be untouchable unless you're bringing back a controllable MLB asset, but you could talk me into 2 guys between 5 and 15 and a low level flier or 2 for Baez if there's a realistic chance they'd dish out the dough necessary to lock him up long term. Or in that scenario it'd be interesting to see what else the Cubs may ask for if it was a Javy for Jorge swap. Polanco at his current deal is a steal if he's his usual self so swapping SS with a plan to extend Javy is interesting to me. But I don't see anyway the Twins would pay for an elite SS so at this point I'd prefer to sign Simmons to a 2 year deal and cross my fingers Lewis can stick at short.

I think it's more likely Sabato is DHing in 2024 than the Twins extending Sano. Don't see any reason to think he'll ever get his Ks under control and, even with the mammoth HRs, he won't be worth the price of extending him over paying Sabato, or Larnach/Rooker/Kiriloff/rotating DH, league minimum at the time. Think we'll see someone other than Donaldson at 3B by then, too. Cavaco maybe ready to make his debut at some point in 2024? Probably more likely that Polanco is seeing time there with Lewis at SS (think the Twins are determined to keep him there if it's at all possible as they have way more OF youngsters at this time). If I'm right about Sano and Lewis I think there's a chance Buxton is still roaming CF in 2024 as I think they'd prefer to extend him over Sano if Buxton shows any ability at all to stay healthy and play 130+ games a year. Jeffers, Kiriloff, Arraez, Larnach, Lewis, and Kepler all feel like guys the Twins have no interest in moving and will be the core of the lineup come 2024 with the rest being questionable to still be around and the team being more open to trading or replacing by 2024. I think they want Polanco to be first half of 2019 Polanco and lock him into a spot in the lineup, but just not sure they trust that to happen or that he'll be able to hold down any defensive spot by then. And don't think they'll want to pay the prices for Donaldson or Sano and Buxton is just a total wild card.

Does Semien demand a 2 year deal to avoid the avalanche of FA superstar SS next year? Does he take a discount to get that second year? He's an interesting player as he is the definition of a 1 year wonder, but that 1 year was incredible. I'd personally prefer Simmons as I trust his glove and contact bat over Semien ever reproducing his 2019 numbers, but for the right price I'd take a shot at Semien being a slight upgrade at SS and Polanco being a huge upgrade at utility IF over Marwan or Ehire. But like everything else about the Twins, it comes down to the $.

Yeah, not sure why them having been non-tendered separates them from other free agents. I'd love Archie Bradley and David Dahl. Dahl has 3 years of control left. If you think giving him extra rest can keep him on the field he's absolutely worth going after. Obviously the price has to be right for any free agent, but a blanket statement of not signing non-tendered players doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Carlos Rodon is an interesting piece to add as another lefty in the bullpen if they think a move to the pen and a tweak or 2 can keep him healthy and performing to expectations. Maikel Franco is intriguing as insurance for the oft injured Sano and Donaldson corner IF duo. Kyle Schwarber is worth talking to with the ceiling he has with the bat. Eddie Rosario at a reduced rate is something I think almost every team would be interested in. As far as non-tendered (or FAs in general) hitters go, I think a lot of that comes down to Cruz. If you're bringing him back you don't have the same flexibility to get guys ABs by cycling through the DH spot. If he's not retained signing one of the FA bats as insurance against the early struggles you'd predict for the kids makes a ton of sense. There weren't any great utility guys non-tendered so probably looking at other FAs or trades there. But overall there's no reason not to go after non-tenders the same way you'd go after any other FA. In fact, it may make more sense to go after the right ones who have more years of team control left and can be gotten on the cheap now.

Schwarber is not even close to the K machine Sano is. Not advocating to sign him, but to me it's more about him being LH than about the Ks. SO%: Career: Sano- 37% Schwarber- 28% Best Season: Sano- 35.5% Schwarber- 25.6% Worst Season: Sano- 43.9% Schwarber- 30.9% Schwarber may not be the best fit for the roster (LH hitting corner OF is something we have plenty of), but he is not a strikeout machine.

Well not having to cover player salaries would be a boost to the bottom line I'd think. The Twins can help cover the 20 mil, and I'm sure that's a large part of any negotiations happening. A bad AAA team is still better baseball than any team the Saints have ever run out there. People go now without it being a Twins affiliate and with it being less skilled baseball. I'd think there's a reason teams pay the 20 mil to become affiliated. If being independent like the Saints is the better move why would any team sign on to be affiliated? I can name you 2 dozen minor league affiliates and own merchandise from a half dozen. None of which are Twins affiliates. Being linked to MLB gives you further reach and I'd assume increases merchandise and ad revenue. Not crazy drastically, and maybe not even enough to take on the risk of the Twins kicking you to the curb in 5 years, but I don't think there's any question that not having to pay your players and adding even a little merchandise and ad revenue would be good for any team's bottom line. Just don't get why any team would sign up for it if it's a worse business decision than being independent.

They should certainly be worried about MLB and what moves they may make to control things, but why do you feel $20 mil is too much? I'd assume there's a path to significant revenue increases by being affiliated and having a more national brand while playing in front of larger road crowds and getting Twins fans who don't currently care about the Saints more interested.

I would be shocked if the Mets aren't a major player this winter. They have the bones of a solid team and the new owner will want to make a statement by surrounding those guys with a few splash signings. I'm not predicting the Twins will follow this strategy, but it is one the front office should present to the Pohlads and see if they can sneak a few extra dollars out of them for a big swing this season. The Reds would be another team who desperately wants to be a threat in the playoffs and could look at bringing in a few 1 year guys. The Twins have a playoff caliber core and need to win a playoff game soon. Even the Pohlads understand that. They could definitely lean on the local government and get some assurances that there will be fans in the stands in 2021. If they know they'll have 50% capacity allowed they have to assume they'll fill that capacity every game as fans crave the chance to get back out to games and back to "normal." I'm not suggesting they go out and spend 200 mil on payroll, but if there's ever a year worth taking a risk this is it. They have young players almost ready or ready for the show that they believe in but don't want to rely on completely. They need bridge veterans on 1 year deals to provide insurance and allow for some growing pains. With the market depressed things are lining up perfectly to snag some guys they normally couldn't get on 1 year deals. Nothing in their history suggests the Twins will take a financial risk, but if there was ever a year to do it this is it and I hope Falvine is pushing for something like this.

This offseason has the potential to be the most unique of our lifetime. CBA coming to an end after the 2021 season and the unknown of a pandemic. Can't imagine we'll ever see this kind of combination of variables ever again. Teams willing to keep their payrolls close to what they would've been in a normal year and risk taking losses financially next year have huge advantages. Mid-market teams like the Twins could build big-market rosters for 2021 if they are willing to take the risk on attendance numbers. Meeting with local government and getting a feel for the attendance rules you may be facing in 2021 is vital. With no in-person games last year teams have to expect a jump in typical attendance if fans are allowed back with no numbers restrictions in 2021. If the Twins have inside info and feel comfortable with the fact that fans will be back in 2021 (I'd guess there'll be some number of fans as I just don't see our society being willing to follow lockdowns for an entire year beyond what they have) I think $125 mil for a budget is not only reasonable, but perhaps even low. If the Twins see this as a chance to take advantage of a crazy situation and go after guys who'd typically be out of their price range on 1 year deals as players hope the market gets back to normal after 2021 they could make some drastic improvements. There are going to be plenty of teams who cut payroll pretty aggressively and the Twins are in position to take advantage. Easy for me to say since it isn't my money, but loading up on 1 year deals for players who were hoping for massive long term deals would be my strategy going in. Cruz, Ozuna, Bauer, Kluber, Morton, Archer, LeMahieu, Hernandez, Wong, Didi, Turner, Brantley, Pederson, Springer, Tanaka, Stroman, Odo, Walker, Lester, Hendriks, Colome, Hand, Alvarez, etc. There's a bunch of guys out there and they won't all get the long(ish) term deals they were expecting going into 2020. Some because of the financial "struggles" of the league in 2020 and some because of down years. I'd let them all know we'll pay normal market rate on a 1 year deal and see what combination of guys I can bring in to fill out my roster.

Not even necessarily that we think we'll see it, just that we can't be too confident we won't. I'm with you on him looking like he knew what he was doing and looked very comfortable. The real test for him (and Rooker) will be this season as they see what major league pitchers can do to holes in your swing and how hard life can get. I think they'll both come in prepared and put in the work, but wouldn't want to rely on them for repeats of their above expectation debuts. Think the Twins will find a nice balance of low cost veterans and reliance on young guys this year. Hopefully all the youngsters make the low cost veterans expendable, but we'll see.

With the 26th roster spot it's a little more tenable to carry 3 catchers and would make previous year's data on teams carrying 3 catchers not all that relevant. It makes most sense for teams with 2 primary catchers who have relatively significant platoon splits. If you have a righty and a lefty you can then pinch hit late in games to give you the platoon advantage and still have a catcher on the bench in case of injury replacement late. It is still challenging to get that 3rd guy regular ABs, though, even with the extra roster spot. Think it is a team to team situation depending on the skill set makeup, and strategy, of your roster. Useful for sub-happy teams like the Twins. Less useful for "here's my 9 best" teams who use bench guys as more strict backups.

His 62 plate appearances is what makes us think he needs "grooming time." He did quite well in his first taste of the bigs, no doubt. Above and beyond expectations for sure. To expect him to do that for 120+ games now that the league has tape on him would be poor team management. Going into next year with him and Garver you have to feel pretty good about the catcher position, but Jeffers is not a finished product and shouldn't be viewed as guaranteed .270 and 15-20 bombs. The league is going to adjust to him and this year will be the toughest he's ever had as a ball player as he gets to test his ability to adjust to the adjustments. A close to even split between Garver and Jeffers is a real good place to start with a 2021 plan. A little insurance behind them is a great addition to the plan.

It's not just you, I see a lot of talk on these boards about letting Cruz walk. If your argument is that you think he's done that's one thing, but if your expectation is that his production can be easily replaced I just don't get it. He was 4th in WRC+ in 2019 and 8th in 2020. In all of baseball. In his pre-Twins time he was 20th in 2018, 10th in 2017, and 10th in 2016. In. All. Of. Baseball. He's been the 4th best hitter in all of baseball since 2016. Where do people think they're getting the production to replace that? I know the league is full of youngsters putting on a show and it's fun to dream on the 3 top guys we have ready, or near ready, for the show. But to expect them to replace the 4th best hitter in baseball is a real bold strategy. Nelson Cruz has a WRC+ of 148 from 2016-2020 (148,146,133,163,164 individual years) There have been 12 rookies to beat 148 WRC+ Since 2016: Ke'Bryan Hayes 2020- 24 games- 195 WRC+ Yordan Alvarez 2019- 87 games- 178 WRC+ Randy Arozarena 2020- 23 games- 176 WRC+ Aaron Judge 2017- 155 games- 174 WRC+ Gary Sanchez 2016- 53 games- 170 WRC+ Matt Olson 2017- 59 games- 164 WRC+ Rhys Hoskins 2017- 50 games- 158 WRC+ Ryan O'Hearn 2018- 44 games- 153 WRC+ Bobby Dalbec 2020- 23 games- 152 WRC+ Shohei Ohtani 2018- 114 games- 151 WRC+ Willi Castro 2020- 36 games- 151 WRC+ Fernando Tatis Jr 2019- 84 games- 150 WRC+ That's 12 players in 5 years. So basically 2 guys a year come up and hit the way Cruz does. Many of which (8) played fewer than 60 games in that season. If they think his slump at the end of the year was a sign of him declining then you move on, but if it was his nagging hip injury and he's going to be close to his usual self next year there is no logical argument to be made that his bat is easily replaced. Now that doesn't mean you write him a blank check, or that one of the rookies doesn't come up and go nuts and put up crazy numbers. But it does mean they need to look very closely at bringing him back for a reasonable price and letting the young guys prove they can at least come close to replacing the boomstick.

I think the next 2 years will tell us if this FO is making strides on the pitching development side of things. All of the Cleveland big name draft and develop pitchers were developed while Falvey was there running their pitching development program. The Twins are at the point where guys he's had a say in developing are reaching the majors. I don't particularly care how, or when, a prospect got into the Twins' system. I just care about how they develop them and whether or not they can turn them into legitimate major league arms. If Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Canterino, Colina, Sands, Chalmers, Vallimont, Winder, etc. start showing up in varying roles and succeeding to varying degrees (hopefully a couple succeed at top levels) I will feel comfortable that the FO is recognizing, acquiring, and developing pitching talent. If they all show up and flop or don't show up at all I will be quite concerned. Falvine has had 3 years to set up their pitching program and now is when we need to start seeing the results. The arrivals in 2021 and 2022 (lost minor league season gives them a little extra time in my mind, otherwise 2021 was the year I was looking at for real results) will be the real test.

The interesting part of this is that the Twins would also tell you sacrificing an out at any time, on purpose, is not a way to win games. No out is measly when you're hitting. Big innings is the best way to win games. So on a very basic level it is a bit of a contradiction. That's where it really shows how detailed the Twins, Dodgers, Astros, Rays, etc. are in trying to get any fractional advantage in run scoring and run prevention. The difference is the "guaranteed" run scoring to get an out vs improving your chances to score a run by sacrificing an out on offense. The idea of "guaranteed runs" is also why HRs are the most desirable offensive result. On the surface that seems super obvious (and it is), but there are dozens and dozens of comments on this site of Twins fans being real upset with the perceived "HR or Bust!" approach of the lineup. They've completely failed to be successful in the postseason with that approach and it's lead fans to become frustrated and claim the approach has to change. But the teams winning in the playoffs have the same approach. HRs are guaranteed runs. They're not an improved chance at a run (like base hits, doubles, bunting, stealing, sacrificing, etc.), they are runs. The analytics era has changed the game and I'm in the boat that feels the game isn't quite the same, and, frankly, not quite as enjoyable to watch, with all the Ks and shifting (I've worked in baseball analytics and acknowledge my hypocrisy in adding to the changes to the game while saying they've made it slightly less enjoyable to watch). Teams are looking for even the slightest advantage in saving runs and scoring runs. The casual fan's brain would explode if they got a peak behind the curtain at the incredible amount of information these teams are collecting and algorithms they are running. Rocco catches a lot of heat for his in game "decisions," and rightfully so. He makes a lot of money to take the heat. Many of those "decisions" were made pre-game by spreadsheets and I think the Twins need to better balance pre-game and in-game decision making, but they are all made in an effort to sneak out miniscule percentage points of advantage over opponents. The most glaringly obvious spreadsheet data points are guaranteed runs and outs. HRs are guaranteed. The rest can just get close. That's when the algorithms really kick in (runner speed, arm strength of fielders, K rate of hitter, K rate of pitcher, speed of hitter, etc. etc. etc.) and baseball becomes more about the 4400ish outs you get, or need to get, during a season and not about the 1 you're worried about in the moment. Fans are worried about that 1 play in that 1 game. FO are worried about all the games of all the seasons. They know they're not going to get all the 1 play in 1 game situations right, but if they can get more right than they get wrong they're that much closer to winning.

Will be interesting to see how free agency goes this year. This could be one of those times that the big market teams have a crazy advantage over the smaller markets. The Dodgers just signed Mookie to a gigantic contract in the middle of this season and the Mets sold for 2.3ish billion. The MLBPA will not go quietly if all the teams try to depress salaries, but the "cheaper" teams, with owners who care about nothing but the bottom line, may not be taking big swings in free agency after a down year in profit. Teams willing to spend close to normal may have an advantage in snagging FA this winter. Another question is going to be the location of teams and what their local governments are doing for limiting fans. I believe Florida is already open and allowing teams to pack stadiums to full capacity right now and the teams there could go into the offseason much more comfortable with their chances of having normal attendance next year. Although that doesn't mean much for the Marlins or Rays, but the difference between being in FL and MN could be important for FO making guesses on attendance numbers for 2021. As for the Twins and their budget, I'd guess they aren't going to be increasing it at all, but I think they see that their window is open and its more likely they'll be in the 125-130 area than the 95-100 area. Hitters: I think they try to bring Cruz back on another 1+option year deal and I think the chances are pretty good he takes that. 12ish mil for him next year and 10 mil option. I think they let one of Marwan or Ehire walk and bring back whichever of them is cheapest. I think they non-tender Rosario. I think they want to leave the door cracked for a handful of prospects, but don't want to rely on them from game 1, or start service clocks (hopefully new CBA fixes that nonsense) They're running into a 40 man crunch and need to start making some tough decisions on players like Nick Gordon. That will play a role in Rosario (along with his $) and at least 1 utility guy leaving. Need to start clearing 40 man spots for young guys, but will likely bring in Vargas types to start the year. Easily DFAed for the young guys once the extra year is locked in and they're ready. Pitchers: I don't see them changing their "strength in numbers" approach to the bullpen in that they'll bring in a number of cheap fliers they think have a chance to be good. Bullpen arms are so hit or miss I think their plan will always be to have a number of cheap options and ride the ones who are good that year wile avoiding Kimbrel type deals. I think they reach out to Bauer, but just don't see them being able to convince him they won't pull him after the second time through the order so he won't come here. They'll explore trade options similar to the Odo and Maeda deals and kick the tires on short term starter deals like the last few years. Overall they're at the point where they need to balance their ability to stay competitive with more known quantity, cheap veterans with their need to start getting the young guns up and see what they have. Don't see them having the chance to keep any of Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, or Lewis in the minors all year. I'd guess they also have some sort of guess on what the league will be shooting for with the new CBA and know if playing the service time game this year is vitally important since the MLBPA will be fighting hard to get rid of it. If they can grandfather in a number of prospects to 6 years of team control by calling them up this year I think they do it. In order to do that I think you see them let expensive vets (Rosario) go and retain or sign cheap vets (Ehire, Marwan, TD poster's favorite Kevin Pillar) to leave the door open for the young guys to join their core of Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Arraez, Sano, and Donaldson.

RBI is a useless stat. There's no argument against it. The point of the game is to score runs so obviously driving runs in is good. But as a measure of a player's talent or skill they are useless as there is no context to them. Let's say Eddie and Cruz each had 200 PAs. If Eddie comes to the plate with a runner in scoring position 100 times and comes away with 25 RBIs and Cruz comes to the plate 10 times with runners in scoring position and comes away with 20 RBIs is Eddie better than Cruz? He has more RBIs so he must be! The stat doesn't tell you anything useful about their performance. Maybe Eddie went 0-fer in those 100 PAs, but hit solo and 2 run shots with a guy on 1st to get his 25 RBIs. It's still good that he got RBIs, but he was the complete opposite of clutch and you wouldn't consider him someone who "drives em in." Counting numbers provide very little context and that is why "advanced stats" have been developed. Even something as basic as ABs per HR tells you more than straight HR totals. Garver hit 31 HRs last year. Eddie hit 32. Was Eddie a better HR threat? He hit more HR so must be! Garver did his in 311 ABs, Eddie did his in 562. If you're the pitcher are you wanting to go after the guy who hit a HR every 10 ABs or the guy who hit one every 17.5? HRs, RBIs, Ks, Rs, etc. etc. etc. are all good to compile. It's better to have more than less (Ks as a pitcher, not hitter), yes. But in the context of a conversation about whether or not a player is worth keeping for a certain dollar amount or should be playing over another guy or whatever other similar conversation is being had they tell you almost nothing. So, yes, we want guys that "drive em in," but using RBIs as the stat to prove that carries no weight as it doesn't tell any real story about how they performed.

RBIs are almost completely useless. If I shoot 100 3 pointers and make 25 and Steph Curry shoots 10 3 pointers and makes 10 am I a better shooter than Steph Curry? I have more makes than him so must be better, right? That's what RBIs are. I don't have their numbers in front of me as far as BA with runners on or runners in scoring position or the number of chances they had, but that is going to tell you drastically more than RBIs about who the better run producer is. Eddie is a perfectly fine player and I wouldn't mind seeing him back, and also won't be broken up over it if he's non-tendered. Also don't have a problem with your concerns on WAR and defensive metrics. But using RBIs as a metric to claim who's good and who isn't is not a good argument.

Agreed. And most of the stories we see about Bauer's attitude are him not getting along with coaches because he wants to train his own way. The Twins have openly embraced that attitude since Rocco took over. They believe in the professionalism of their guys and expect them to do what is needed to be ready to perform and don't push any specific protocols. The idea that 1 guy could come in and screw up a whole locker room is a little outlandish. There's 26 players, coaches, FO personnel, clubhouse personnel, grounds crew members, etc. who are around every single day in the clubhouse. To think that you're going to have 1 guy come in and destroy things isn't realistic. Do people think every player on the 2020 club got along and weren't individuals wanting to do things their own way? He goes out and performs. That's what teammates ask of each other. They don't have to agree on everything or approach things the same way. They're grown adults who work together. Get your job done and nothing else matters.