chpettit19

At this point I'd call this season a success if the Twins win a playoff game and break "the streak." And I actually think it'd be a really important win. Even if they lose the other 2 games in the wild card round. Taking that pressure off the 2023 team would be huge. They all tend to say the right things and act like "the streak" doesn't bother them cuz they weren't here for all of it, but they're human, and there is absolutely added pressure to not be on a team that extends the streak, even if you weren't on the team that started it. And I do think that a relatively healthy Twins team could take a game in the wild card round. If the injured team can get them there.

A large part of it is that the minors are more for building up season long stamina. Especially at the lower levels. Those kids have never thrown this many innings over this long of a season before so they're more concerned about having their arms be able to throw at the top of their game into September and October. So the minors are typically used more about building up season long inning counts to get the body better prepared for the shorter recovery time of the offseason between seasons before having to go another 8-9 months of pitching every 6 days.

Yikes.

Is that a different setup for Martin? He looked to have his hands up earlier than usual. Does anyone who watches the minor league games know if he's gotten rid of the hands low, bat straight up part of his setup or am I just seeing the tale end of his setup in that clip where his hands go up?

Except he isn't totally right about that stuff. Carlos Correa openly asks for as much data as humanly possible, and he isn't the only player. Some players can't handle it all, but stating "players simply cannot process a steady flow of massive data" is incorrect. Forcing every player to digest the same amount of information in the same way is poor management whether it comes from a manager or the FO, but some players can handle, and want, all that information. And, yes, of course Maddon says he was fired because he pushed back on management. What else is he going to say? He was let go by 2 clubs, 1 of which was run by one of the most famous FO execs of this "analytics era." Call me a skeptic, but I'm not just going to take a fired Joe Maddon at his word that it was all the FO in both places, 1 of which had apparently already let him do things his way. Find it hard to believe he won a WS with the Cubs and suddenly they were like "no, you have to do it our way!" Isn't it more likely that the Cubs at least just felt he wasn't a good manager anymore and had lost the clubhouse than that they told their WS winning manager he had to change how he did things despite winning their first WS in over 100 years? As for the usefulness of analytics within a game, I'll again point to all the baseball lifers that played the game at the highest level (which earlier you said the analytics people didn't do so don't understand the game) and are now managing at the highest level who use the analytics, beyond just defensive positioning, in their decision making. Joe Maddon himself used that stuff in lineup creation, pitcher usage, etc. So, again, I'm going to question Maddon's sudden change of heart after being replaced in his last 2 jobs and suddenly not being the face of the modern manager anymore. Dave Roberts, Terry Francona, Aaron Boone, Alex Cora, Dusty freaking Baker even are all using the "analytics" for more than just defensive shifts now. So sorry I'm not willing to just take Maddon at his word that he's now a crusader for good after being fired midseason when there's plenty of baseball lifers, and at least 1 HOF manager, using this stuff today. And, as I said in my previous post, I agree there is a problem with how far the FOs appear to be starting to step into clubhouse/gameplay management. But there needs to be a general consensus on game strategy between the FO and the manager/coaches to run your org as best as possible. Selling Falvey as some marketing guy who doesn't know baseball, or how to identify talent, feels awfully disingenuous. He was a scout for the Indians for multiple years before making his way up. The business people are the Dave St Peters of the world, but they're not making baseball decisions. There is a very clear line between the two sides of things. Falvey is the President of Baseball operations, and isn't involved in the "sales, marketing, etc" stuff at all. Dave St Peter is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Twins, and isn't involved in the evaluation of talent, or roster building, stuff at all (beyond helping set the budget). Suggesting Falvey (or Friedman in LA, or Theo when he was with Boston or Chicago) is just a sales/marketing guy is completely and totally inaccurate. They may not weigh the human side of things enough (I'd certainly buy that argument with the Twins), but suggesting they don't know the game is flat out incorrect.

Louie Varland was a 15th round pick in 2019 that made it to the majors in 3 years. Ryan Jeffers was a 2nd round pick in 2018 who made it to the majors in 2 years. Buxton made it to the majors in 3 years (same as Harris). Polanco debuted at the age of 20. Lewis very likely would've debuted at age 21 or 22 if it weren't for the pandemic and injury. Steer was a 3rd round pick in 2019 who made it to the brink of the majors (promoted by the Reds eventually) in 3 years. Rooker drafted in 2017, debuted 2020. Jose Miranda wasn't good for much of those 5.5 minor league seasons so it's hard to say he should've been promoted more aggressively. The complaint could be made that he more than earned a call up last year, but it's also hard to argue that it wasn't smart for the Twins to save service time on him during a lost year for the team. Kirilloff moved quickly when healthy. I'd wager that Canterino would've debuted by now if it weren't for injuries. I certainly think they could stand to be more aggressive with guys who are clearly dominating in the minors. That's been the Brave's move. Get them to AA and if they're on fire call them up when they're hot and see if they can keep the momentum going. I have every expectation that Lee has the chance to debut next year if he's dominating at AA (I assume he finishes this year at A+ and starts next year at AA). The Twins haven't had guys go nuts like Harris, Grissom, or Strider very often. I do think they're more conservative than teams like Atlanta. The interesting players that you could debate what other teams would've done with them are the Steer, Wallner, Julien types from the 2019 draft. As for "assessing talent" goes I think it's pretty good to turn 3rd rounder Steer, 18th rounder Julien, and 15th rounder Varland all into possible major leaguers from that draft. They had CES in AA this year after they picked him in the 4th just last year. Again on the "assessing talent" I think having Petty, Hajjar, Povich, and CES be the trade pieces they were this year is a pretty good indication the league thinks the Twins assessed talent well in last year's draft. Not to mention 13th round pick David Festa looking like a real prospect in his first full season. In conclusion, yes, I think they could stand to be more aggressive with some guys. No, there shouldn't be much question that the Twins are assessing talent pretty well. People loved to point to Baddoo last year as a huge missed assessment, yet aren't talking about his .184/.255/.213 slash line in 52 games this year. So I think they assess, and develop, pretty well, but are probably too conservative. Even though I'd say the Twins performance last year lead to some of that conservative decision making for that year in particular.

While I wouldn't bet on the Twins tonight, can we at least let them play the game before we mark this down as an official sweep? Oh, and they won the season series against every likely wildcard team. But other than that, I agree they obviously have no chance of beating any of the teams they've already beaten.

I think it's about knowing the player as a person more than caring about them being a catcher vs a 3B vs a RF or whatever. Carlos Correa notably loves the data. He wants it all. He meets individually with FO team members to get personalized info that he wants. He'll give them new things that he wants that they don't already gather. Some guys love it. Some guys perform better with it. But some guys are overwhelmed by it. That's the manager's (and pitching/hitting coaches) job. It sounds like Joe got to a spot where he felt he was no longer allowed to dispense information on a player by player basis. I personally take it more as him pointing blame away from himself as his last 2 jobs ended poorly, but I could certainly be wrong there. But the key to it all is providing the information to players in a way tailored to that player. Hopefully the Twins allow Rocco, and his coaches, to do that.

This was my general read on things, too. Maddon sounds like a jilted lover who has an axe to grind as he went from the face of the modern manager to being cast aside when his teams quit winning. He sounds like a guy who wants to get his name back in a good light and put the blame in other places. I do think he has a point with the amount of contact FOs have in with players, but I agree that they need to be part of that planning process. A key to any team's success is having the FO and coaching staff be on the same page. Not just FO to MLB manager, but all the way down through the system. If you're drafting guys to be a certain type of player you need coaches who will train them to be that type of player. The FO needs to be part of the decision making process on how pitchers are used and lineups are constructed. If you want a team that steals a bunch of bases you're out there signing speed guys with little power so you don't want a coaching staff/manager that doesn't teach or promote base stealing, but instead wants station to station ball looking for homeruns. The question with the Twins in particular is whether or not they have the right strategies in general. I don't see Rocco as "middle management," I see him as part of the management team. He was hired because he sees the game the same way as Falvey and Levine. I think that's important for any organization. The question is then just whether or not the way these leaders see the game, and strategize based on that, is right.

It rings a little disingenuous that Joe Maddon of all people is calling out analytics in anyway. He lead the charge on managing by analytics with Tampa. I mean things may have gone a little further now, but let's not act like Joe Maddon is/was some "old school/gut feeling" guy. The top managers in the game all use the math, and were basically all major league players. Dave Roberts. Terry Francona. Alex Cora. Aaron Boone. I have great respect for Maddon, but that quote does nothing for me. If front offices are the problem, and are steamrolling managers into managing how they want, then it's an owner issue, and owners need to more clearly define the roles (and for the record I do believe this is the real problem with it all). But the managers actually pulling the trigger on pulling starters, using the shift, etc. are a whole bunch of baseball lifers who played at the top level. If Rocco lacks an understanding of the game I'd think we could blame it on his major league manager a little. Wasn't that Joe Maddon?

I agree. Analytics have become too big of a part of the game. But if you're not using them you're at a disadvantage. It's up to the league to continue to put new rules in place, or tweak old ones, to get the game back to a more watchable product. The teams are never going to stop relying on the data and adjusting their strategies based on it. The league has to force the game to be played the way they want it to be played. Most of my comments on these things aren't in support of analytics, but just meant to refute the idea that the Twins are doing things "wrong." They're doing things the way modern baseball teams do things. They're outside the norms slightly here and there (pull pitchers a little earlier than other teams, for example), but overall this isn't Rocco or the FO being crazy, it's them doing what modern baseball teams do.

If we're looking at "playoff caliber teams" why not just look at what they did against the likely wild card teams that they'd play in round 1? TB: Twins win series 4-2 while outscoring them 34-25 Sea: Twins win series 4-3 while outscoring them 26-17 Tor: Twins win series 4-3 while being outscored 38-41 Bal: Twins win series 4-3 while being outscored 24-25 That's a 16-13 record against the teams they'd face if they win the division. If you told me coming into the year that the Twins would win a single playoff round I'd have taken it. Now moving beyond that? Much different, but this team and, more importantly, fan base could use a playoff round win. Or just a playoff game win.

The Twins are currently 68-65. In 1987 after 133 games they were 69-64. I mean it's not exactly the same, but I'd say it's certainly comparable...

You're playing some semantics now, and trying to bounce around a bit. You started off with the stance of "To be honest I don't know how this team will every develop a top end starter with the limits they put on the minor league pitchers." because the Twins limit Varland "to 5 ish innings (not testing them with the TTO)" which were things easily disproven as I showed that almost every "top end starter" has limits put on them while they're in the minors, and that Varland isn't being limited because of TTO, but instead because of innings limits while trying to get him to throw deep into a season. You have a problem with him being 25, and that's fair. Most elite major league pitchers got to the bigs well before they were 25, but they were also drafted out of big schools or high in the first round and expected to move quickly. Varland wasn't and that's why we're talking about "manufacturing" a top prospect instead of simply drafting a guy in the first round and having him become what everyone thought/hoped he'd become. There is no reason to believe he will only be a "4-5 inning starter." The Twins let Ryan and Gray both go deep into games early in the season before they went on the IL, and, in Ryan's case, stopped being effective. They let Berrios throw 200 innings a year, and be on pace for it again before being traded. And, again, Varland isn't being limited to shorter starts this year because of a fear of the 3rd time seeing the order, but because he's thrown more innings this year than he ever has in his entire life and they are working on building season long arm strength. As far as what "top pitching prospect" means you can define it however you want. You can compare him to guys who actually became elite MLB pitchers, but that's not fair to him, or any other prospect. Or you can compare his numbers to the numbers of guys who were ranked high on prospect rankings and then it's a whole different argument. There are a ton of high picks who are highly ranked prospects that don't even make the bigs and have terrible minor league numbers. The Twins have a whole bunch of them over the last decade. Tyler Jay was a "top pitching prospect" at one point. Is Varland a better prospect than Jay in AA? I don't think it's even close. Tyler Jay didn't even make it to AAA let alone succeed there. So who's the "top pitching prospect" out of those 2? The guy who's name was on "the lists" or the guy actually succeeding? I mean if you're simply trying to say you don't think Varland is going to be Jacob deGrom then fine. You win. He's likely never going to be Jacob deGrom. But to suggest he's not a legit prospect with very impressive minor league numbers that hold up to all the "big name prospects" is simply ignoring the facts.

I mean Varland has been fighting the odds since he walked on campus in St Paul. Not a whole lot of MLB players coming out of Concordia St Paul. And, again, I'm not predicting he becomes a front line starter. The fact that he made it to AAA is an absolute success story for him, first and foremost, and the Twins development teams secondly. The fact that he continues to perform well and looks like he has a real shot at making the majors is encouraging for all involved. Pointing out that he's behind the elite, 1st round (or 4th in Webb's case) picks in progression at his age isn't breaking news at all. That's why the article is about "manufacturing" a prospect. He's a late round pick from a small school that has no business being where he is already. I'd say that kind of shows that "the odds" don't necessarily apply to him.

I'm not suggesting he's going to be anything like them on a talent or performance level, I'm simply disproving your idea that you can't develop a top end starter if they don't throw more in the minors. It's an incorrect stance as proven by basically everyone at the top of the pitching leaderboards today.

Have you looked at McClanahan's minor league start data? Average batters faced: 21.65. Average start: 5.08 innings. Average pitches thrown: 82.9. In his season with the most innings thrown in the minors. Don't even look at Webb's 2018 minor league stats. Only made it into the 6th 3 times in 26 starts. Only cracked 80 pitches 7 times. Only faced at least 20 hitters 8 times. The connection you're trying to make simply isn't that easy to make.

Pablo Lopez (this year's leader in ML innings pitched) threw 145.1 innings in 2017. Highest he ever totaled in the minors. Varland should get awfully close to that total this year. And Pablo Lopez is a top end starter. Jacob deGrom maxed out at 147.2 innings in 2013. Max Scherzer topped out at 90.2 in 2007. Verlander 118.2. Kershaw 122. Gausman 123.2. Bieber at 173.1 is an outlier for you. Fried 118.2. Cease 124. Rodon 132.1. Alcantara 125.1. That's a pretty good list of "top end starters" that weren't exactly throwing a ton in the minors. I just think the connection you're trying to make isn't one that can be so easily made. According to Fangraph's minor league leader board, Louie Varland is 12th in all of affiliated minor league baseball in innings pitched this year. Again, this isn't about letting him go 3 times through the order, it's about building up arm strength to endure an entire major league season. The goals in the minors are different than those in the majors and it's not such a straight line connection between the strategies.

He's gone into the 6th in 13 of 23 starts this year. He had never thrown more than 103 innings in a season in his life. He's at 126.1 this year, and will make several more starts. They're limiting the length of his starts because they want him to be used to pitching the entire season while also not overusing his arm so much that he struggles to stay healthy next year. He didn't pitch in 2020. Threw 103 innings in 2021. And is going to get to the 150 range this year. Next year he'll likely not have any inning limit beyond how he performs and whether or not he's worthy of making it through the order a third time, etc. They aren't limiting him because of the third time through the order, they're limiting him because his arm has literally never done what they're asking it to do before.

I think their stated concern with Archer coming out of the pen is the amount of work that goes into getting him ready to pitch. He's the Buxton of the pitching staff. Getting his body ready to play is a whole ordeal and he's not suited to sit in the pen and then get warm when needed. I assume they have no plan to take him out of the rotation, but if they insist on him staying here I'd like to see someone who'll piggyback him after the 4th every start for the rest of the year. Just let him do his 4 innings and sit down. Let Sanchez or Winder or Ober take the game over in the 5th no matter what (he's never going to go 9 innings so I don't even care about having a perfect game through 4) and then let them go for as many as they can.

That's fair. I wouldn't expect him to be used at all, though. I wouldn't expect anyone beyond Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Fulmer, or Bundy to be used in the wild card round.

My hope is that he gets some innings somewhere before the end of the year just to get back on a competitive mound and have that feeling again before heading into the offseason. But I don't see a place for him in the playoff pen if he's not going to be back in the next couple weeks. Just not enough time to get his groove back before the playoffs when you just want your best to be throwing their best every time they step out there. I'd hope for a shortened pen in the playoffs knowing there's extra off days and you won't be using anyone you don't have to. Get an extra speed guy or bat on the bench over having a guy you never plan to use out of the pen. Mahle-Gray-Ryan rotation for round 1 Lopez-Duran-Jax-Thielbar-Fulmer-Bundy-Megill-Moran pen for round 1 Mahle-Gray-Ryan-Bundy rotation for future rounds (Ober and Winder battle it out for 5th, hopefully never used, spot if Twins want one) Lopez-Duran-Jax-Thielbar-Fulmer-Megill-Moran pen for future rounds I don't know if there's new roster rules for the Wild Card round this year, but those are the 11/12 guys I'd carry on my playoff staff assuming Ober or Winder come back looking like themselves. If not it's a battle between Archer, Sanchez, Sands, and Smeltzer for that last spot. I'd put Maeda in that last grouping even if he were coming back soon. So he's in the 14-18 spot battle for an 11 or 12 man staff for me.

Kyle Garlick is not a homegrown player either. Weird that you'd give other organizations credit for developing Urshela while putting the blame on the Twins for Garlick who was developed by the Dodgers (clearly terrible at clutch hitting organization there).

He's got a great arm. But really bad reads and slow.

I tend to agree. It's part of why firing Rocco doesn't give me great hope for improvement and then I just don't see any reason to fire him if you're just hiring Rocco 2.0.