chpettit19

I'm not telling anyone not to push back on the front office or suggesting changes aren't needed. I'm pointing out that the 4 players/moves that you and h2o are/were comparing have far more context than either of you are willing to acknowledge. When the Twins traded Jose Berrios were they in legitimate contention for the 2021 World Series title? Not asking if they went into the season trying to contend, but on the day he was traded did they have a legitimate chance of winning the 2021 World series? They were 43-61 and in last place in the central. Trying to compare that to not trading Aaron Judge in a season where he's going to win the MVP when the Yankees were 70-35 at the deadline and 11 games up in their division is disingenuous. Those are not comparable situations. Then, forecasting ahead, did it look like they had a reasonable chance to fill their many, many roster holes for 2022 and have a legitimate chance at contending for the 2022 World Series? What are the other moves beyond those 2 that create this pattern and philosophy of moves? Trading away vets you aren't going to be able to afford to resign during seasons when you aren't a good team isn't unique to the Twins, or a bad strategy. It's actually pretty global, especially amongst teams that can't/won't spend $200+ million on payroll. But back on July 25th, 2016, when the Yankees were 51-48 and in 4th place in their division, they traded away Aroldis Chapman. Why would they do that when winning organizations are willing to hold onto their players because it gives them a chance to win the World Series? Or is it that the strategy of trading players in a season you're not competing is actually the right strategy? I'm pushing back on you 2 because I believe you've failed in your attempt to unpack the philosophy and are ignoring all context in trying to compare things so they fit your narrative. Provide actually comparable situations and I won't push back. These are simply bad comparisons you 2 are attempting to make.

Explain what about them? He was an upper 3s, lower 4s ERA pitcher those years. That's a solid #3 pitcher who's shown the ability to be better than that for stretches. He was moved to the pen late in the year because the Dodgers had too many starters for their postseason rotation and they wanted Kenta to be a go to pen arm during the postseason. Strategy seemed to work as he has 37.2 postseason innings with an ERA of 2.87.

What would you like to bet that Aaron Judge wins the MVP award in 2022? I'll take any bet you want. You suggested it makes sense to compare the Yankees not trading Aaron Judge in the middle of a division winning season while he's literally playing like the MVP and very well might win the triple crown in the AL and the Twins trading Berrios during a completely and totally lost season with another one on the horizon that was likely also going to be a massive struggle with or without him. It's a bad analogy.

Were the Twins competing for World Series titles last year or this year? If they had both Berrios and Rogers this year would they be at 100 wins? Did the Twins trade away guys in 2019 or 2020 when they were winning? It's a bad comparison in basically everyway, and I pointed out multiple of the reasons it's a bad comparison in that post. The context of those 4 player's situations is completely ignored in that post. And now you're actively ignoring the same context. The Twins were the last place team in the worst division in baseball last year. Ignoring that and pretending they should've held onto Berrios because that's what "winning organizations" do feels quite disingenuous to me.

"The plan" was taken too far this year with their refusal to change it as the season progressed, but linking this year's plan to FA pitchers not coming here is inaccurate. Berrios was amongst the league leaders in innings pitched the whole time he was with the Twins. He was on pace for over 200 innings last year before he was traded. Typically the Twins, and Rocco, haven't been this extreme about pulling starters. I don't know what they were doing this year, but it was outside the norm, even for them. But you can't claim "the plan" is why FAs never come here when this is the first year they've run so aggressively with "the plan."

Ignoring some context here, aren't we? The Braves weren't in the middle of a last place season when they didn't trade Freeman. And when they weren't able to bring him back they instead traded multiple top prospects to pay Matt Olsen instead. Is that the route you'd like the Twins to take instead? Don't trade Berrios during a lost season then let him walk and trade Royce Lewis for a lesser version of Berrios? Not exactly a strategy I'd say would be likely to turn out well for the Twins. Hmmmmm And comparing the Yankees to the Twins when it comes to trading guys they can't afford is just completely and utterly disingenuous. The Twins offered Berrios what they thought he was worth. He said no and they knew they couldn't afford him so they traded him. The Yankees know they can afford Judge, but they made a bet that he'd be hurt again, or at least not perform at an MVP level, so they could get him for cheaper. Judge won that bet and now they'll have to pay him an insane amount. Not to mention that comparing Berrios and Rogers to 2 MVPs is a little ridiculous to start with.

I think it's a FO and manager problem.

The last 2 World Series have had multiple "bullpen games" and seen 0 pitchers in 12 games go more than 6 innings, and only 3 of 24 starts have even gone 6 innings. I think the myth of aces winning in the postseason has pretty well been shattered. You need a good/great pitching staff. That's what you need. 10 guys you can rely on to get outs against the best offenses in baseball. 2019 was the year of the World Series ace with Cole, Verlander, Strasburg, and Scherzer all in the WS. 2018 had 3 7 game starts so there was some "aceness" there. 2017 had 3 starts out of 14 that went more than 6 innings. 2016 had 0 starts over 6 innings, and only 2 that completed 6 (out of 14 starts). 2015 had Cueto go all 9 in 1 start, and the only other start over 6 was the one Harvey blew when they kept him in too long. 2014 had just 3 starts that went over 6 innings out of 14 starts. Point being that the vast majority of World Series starts don't even make it through 6 innings. That's not exactly ace type stuff. Mahle and Gray would both fit in on current playoff level rotations. Duran would obviously fit right in in any pen. Maeda likely still has at least 1 year of being a playoff quality arm left (whether in the rotation or multi-inning pen guy like the Dodgers used him as is up for debate). The Twins problem is that leaves them about 6 arms short for a real playoff run. Maybe Ryan develops into another playoff reliable arm. Maybe Winder? Jax? Alcala? The Twins problem this year is they tried treating the 162 game regular season like the playoffs and completely burned out their pen. But there are not aces doing ace things in many recent World Series games anymore. Unless we're now counting 6 innings as ace level production.

Carlos Rodon, or someone of that level, or just let the rotation be. Need someone better than Mahle or I don't see the point in bringing anyone else in. Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Ryan, all the other young guys is a more preferable rotation than adding any Bundy or Archer types. Either get someone who slots in ahead of those 4 or concentrate on the bullpen and lineup only.

This is interesting to me. What would you call what the Reds have done for the last year if you wouldn't call it tanking? They've traded away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Rasiel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart, Amir Garrett, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Tommy Pham, and Brandon Drury since last season. I guess you can sugar coat it and call it rebuilding, but they are most definitely not trying to win major league baseball games with those moves. Now not caring about it is a different thing. But I'm curious about the stance that nobody is tanking in baseball.

I like this idea. Give him a start. It's not doing anything drastic to his service time since he likely won't be in the rotation to start 2023 anyways. Let him get the feel and experience of a big league game and be that much more motivated to attack the offseason and come into spring training ready to steal someone's job. I don't see what it could hurt to let him finish the Saints season and then make a start against Chicago to end the season. Overall it's time to turn things over to Varland, Ronny, Ober, Winder, Ryan, Gray this season. Bundy has fulfilled his role, but I don't need to see him start anymore games. Archer's season should be over. Be careful with Gray coming back from his hammy cuz there's no reason not to be, but the rest of the starts should go to young guys who will be part of the future. Don't care about Ws or stats. Get them some experience.

I think the general feeling on Lee is he won't have the range to be a big league SS. Now scouts have certainly thought that about others and been proven wrong, but I think Lewis looked like he could handle the position pretty well when he filled in for Correa. I wouldn't be mad with either configuration as both are likely above average 3B, but I'd lean Lewis at SS for the added range he'll likely provide. Mostly I just hope both reach pretty close to their ceilings and things will take care of themselves from there.

I think the more likely outcome in the IF if Correa isn't back is Lewis at SS and Lee at 3B at midseason. Assuming all goes right for both of those players. I'd be quite happy with a Lewis and Lee leftside for the next 7-10 years if they're both what we hope they are.

I'll have to disagree on the pen being the easiest thing to fix. In fact, I'd argue it's the hardest thing to fix. Pen arms are highly volatile and predicting which ones will perform from year to year is incredibly difficult. I'd also argue the Twins have a solid bullpen base going into 2023 with Duran, Lopez, Jax, and Alcala. The Twins problem is their bullpen usage. If you're going with nothing but 1 inning guys you're going to burn them all out before you even get to the stretch run if you're going to stick to 5 inning starts all year. If the Twins were getting/allowing 6 and 7 inning starts every night they'd be able to unleash Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Fulmer in the vast majority of close games since they'd only need 2 or 3 a night. I think they have assembled a talented bullpen right now, but using 4 of those guys in every game is impossible so you get stuck using the Pagan's of the world far too frequently and getting less productive versions of those 5 guys because you're also wearing them all out. I think they have a decent strategy with the bullpen construction, outside of getting stuck on a guy and refusing to give up on them (Colome, Duffey, Pagan) for far too long. Bullpens are mostly built by having a few guys you expect to be great and then rolling through options until you find the other 4 or 5 guys who are going to be good that year. The Twins just need to be better at managing their bullpen. And that's where I don't trust this FO or manager.

Yeah, I don't expect any changes because it just isn't really how the Pohlads roll. The reason I'd like to see change is I'm just not at all convinced this regime is up to making the needed changes the owners hopefully are demanding. I expect to see starters going longer next year with a full ST, but things will come up during the season, or offseason even, and this regime just doesn't appear to have the ability to come off their plans and adjust. The injury stuff is super confusing to me and I hope their answer isn't just shrugging their shoulders and saying "it's just bad luck."

Silver lining is that Miranda, Gordon, Wallner, Varland, Winder, Duran, Jax, etc. are all getting a small taste of playoff type baseball at the big league level. Must win games in September this year maybe helps them when they're in the actual playoffs in the future.

Took way too long to make this move, but I'm glad its finally been made. I don't expect Wallner to light the world on fire for the rest of this season, but a big HR or 2 sure would be helpful right now. No big mistakes in the OF paired with competitive at bats, and I'll call this a successful first stint for Wallner. Also nice to get his feet wet this season in anticipation of him being needed next year.

I've been one of the bigger FO/Rocco defenders on these pages this season. Not because I love everything they do, or think they're all great. I'm not a "Rocco lover" (I don't think you'd find many Rocco lovers anymore, just Rocco understanders). I think the FO/Rocco (yes, they need to all be viewed as 1 entity, Rocco is simply an extension of the FO) have set the Twins up in a good spot moving forward, but I now want to see a different FO team and manager take the team from here. Their complete inability to adjust on the fly has destroyed this season. The injuries have certainly compounded things, but even some of that appears to be self inflicted. How does Kepler start 1 game, and have a handful of brutal pinch hitting appearances, since September 4th and just get put on the IL today (retroactive to the 14th)? They completely wasted a roster spot for 13 days. I don't expect Wallner to light the world on fire the rest of the season, and Contreras is nothing to write home about, but let's at least try instead of tying our own hands. They did the same thing with Polanco. 4-6 week injuries turn into 8-12 week injuries. Either they have too big of a voice in medical decisions (and force conservative handling of players), or they've hired absolutely horrible medical staffs and refused to move on from them when it's become painfully clear. The short starts have caught up to them and they continue to ignore it and refuse to change the strategy. I don't think they have a great rotation, and actually think having regular shorter starts has helped prop that unit up, but at some point you have to acknowledge the season is on the line and you have to try to get an extra inning out of guys. Ober had 4 rehab starts and his last one was 66 pitches. If he couldn't have pressed to 80 yesterday you shouldn't have started him. Or at least not have had the plan to use all but one of your top relievers for a second straight day before going into a double header. Are there people in the FO that push back and are ignored or is everyone from Falvey to Rocco in lock step on this? If they don't have a contingent pushing back then they're screwed and their echo chamber will doom the rest of their time in MN. I like the roster. I think the development systems are in a great place. There's a real organizational base to build from already in place, but I think it's time to move on from the Falvine/Rocco era. They just don't seem to have the ability to make on the fly changes or adjustments to their plans. I gave them the whole season to see if they'd start extending pitchers a little (and, to be fair, they did let Gray and Ryan go 7 against KC), but they've put their team behind the 8 ball in their season defining series with continual self inflicted bullpen overuse. I don't know how many games the Pohlads actually watch, but if they were watching last night and didn't start having second thoughts about their people in charge then they truly don't care about the Twins ever winning. All they needed was 1 extra inning out of Ober last night in the most important game of the year to this point, and they just couldn't stop being overly cautious (blows my mind that they look at the IL situation and think their limiting of players is helping them stay healthy) and sticking to the plan. I think it's time to turn the keys over to a new regime.

Technically Wallner is actually in Cleveland. He is part of the taxi squad in case he needs to be added to the roster if Kepler goes on the IL.

Why is Max Kepler still not on the IL? What is the point of basically wasting a roster spot for 11 days? He's started once since September 4th. Just IL him!

Rumors starting to swirl that Wallner isn't playing for the Saints tonight, and may just find himself in a new jersey this weekend.

Rumor has it young Mr Wallner isn't playing for St Paul tonight and it may be for a reason involving this Cleveland series

Last I saw Buxton was only running in the pool and not doing any sort of baseball type activities. I think there's a 0% chance he plays against Cleveland. And we very well may not see him again at all this year. Polanco, though, is rehabbing in St Paul tonight. I think that's a waste of a day, but hopefully he meets the team in Cleveland this weekend.

Jorge, Jeffers, Larnach all in St Paul on rehab assignments. Dobnak outrighted to St Paul. Contreras recalled. Ober activated. Cotton DFA'd (I know those have already been listed, just trying to cover every move they made today). Garlick to 10 day IL.

Twins have already launched an augmented reality app for in Target Field and I'd think they could do something that would allow those who care about such things to use their phones to show advanced stats/data readouts on previous plays at some point. I think it'd be cool to be able to pull out my phone after a great play and hold it up to the field to show me the route the fielder took, sprint speed, catch probability, what-have-you. I like the option to watch the advanced stats streaming as well. Not every fan is into that so it makes sense to do like Prime did with the football game and have both options available. They use live tracking of golf balls on TV and I'd think they could do that with baseball games as well. Would be a nice option to have. Just tie baseball savant into the broadcast.