chpettit19

Prielipp is far and away the best chance in my eyes. But an ETA of 2025 goes directly against the idea of him being the best bet. He missed last year, but will be hitting the ground running this season. He needs to end this season at AA at the lowest, if not AAA. He was a dominant college arm with 2 MLB ready pitches (according to some). That guy can't take 3 seasons to debut if he's a candidate to be an ace. I wouldn't even close the door on him debuting out of the pen at the end of 2023. They got Lee to AA in half a season so getting Prielipp there, or beyond, during a full season should be more than doable. He'll be on an innings limit, but that shouldn't stop him from advancing if he's shredding the low minors like he should. Prielipp making it to AAA or the majors in 2023 is the Twins best chance to develop an Ace anytime soon.

Little upside? From Gleeman's Athletic article today: "Among pitchers with at least 50 starts in the past two years, (Rodon) was first in strikeout rate (12.2/9), second in OPS against (.567), and fourth in ERA (2.67)." Rodon has been arguably a top 3 pitcher in all of baseball the last 2 years. If that's not upside I don't know what is. He's very much an injury risk, but he absolutely has Ace upside, and has been an Ace for 2 years now.

I agree that everyone should always be available for the right price. Including Jorge. I just think you're playing a real risky game if the plan is multiple trades and multiple signings to fill the C, SS, SP, and BP holes. Trading someone like Jorge shouldn't happen until the end of the offseason when you see where the holes are that you couldn't fill for just $ without losing major leaguers. The more moves, and especially trades, you make the higher you run the risk of being caught with a gaping hole somewhere when 1 move doesn't end up happening. Or 2 moves. Or 3. And then you're really screwed. It's all well and good to say "I'd trade Jorge and Lee for pitching, Kepler for a 2B, Gray for a SS, sign a SP, and move prospects for BP pieces" but when the Jorge and Lee move falls through after you traded Gray for a SS your rotation is even worse and you missed on signing the big FA arms while you were working on the Jorge deal so now you're back to scrap heaps and praying for prospects to pan out. Or you can't find a 2B or SS trade and won't pay for the stars so after you've traded Jorge and Lee you've got 2 gigantic defensive holes in the middle of your infield with limited shifting abilities to make up for it. It's possible to make multiple moves and move the holes in your roster from 1 position to another while banking on filling that new hole in a new move, but it just increases the likelihood that you miss on a deal and are left standing with no way to fix the holes. They could go: Jorge and Lewis for Lopez and Rojas (basing this on the multiple reports of Marlins demanding Torres and Peraza at the deadline for Lopez and Rojas) Gray for a 2B Sign Narvaez at C Sign a Gray level, or better, pitcher to cover that hole Sign a SS better than 34 year old, can't hit at all Rojas to cover that hole (or live with him til Lewis is ready?) Combination of FA signings and Kepler trade for BP arms But to me the easier option is to keep Jorge and Lewis and sign Rodon. Now you don't have to trade Gray and your rotation is improved and set. You can sign Iglesias to do the same thing Rojas would at SS til Lewis is ready, or, and I'd prefer, sign Correa or Turner. Either way SS is filled to the same degree as the "trade Jorge for pitching" scenario, but you still have Jorge at 2B. Since that scenario included signing a C that remains the same. And fixing the BP can still be sign FA and trade Kepler. I just don't see the reason to trade Jorge, or one of their few top prospects, when they have so much money to spend and could fill their holes without losing any of the above average players they have. I just don't think the Twins have anywhere close to a surplus of talented major leaguers so moving any of them means moving top prospects as well if you're going to actually upgrade the ML roster and the Twins don't have extra top prospects to move. I don't see this org as well setup to make more trades after what they did at the deadline. And they have money to spend. Fill the holes that way so the talent level is doing nothing but going up. As for the 40 man, my stance is that they have plenty of low end guys they could DFA without concern in order to bring in better major leaguers. I see an easy path to 6 open spots right now to protect rule 5 guys. Then there's plenty of guys that I'd move on from if/when I could get a better player in their spot.

I mean we can make some pretty educated guesses. I feel quite confident in saying the Marlins are not trading 2 of their pitchers in 1 deal. It's generally a bad idea as it doesn't maximize your return. Especially when it's a deal that doesn't even include a single elite talent in return. And why would they want a lesser pitcher who ended the year on the IL with shoulder problems, and has less team control, in return? That deal hurts their rotation without improving their offense (they have Larnach lite already, his name is JJ Bleday) so I'm very confident they wouldn't accept that deal. And I'm not sure why we'd trade Arraez and Gray for Jansen. Real bad idea to pay full price for a part time catcher coming off a career season. Especially if you're going to turn around and trade Jeffers. You're in the same spot of needing a 2nd catcher who's good enough to start at least half the games next year. The team has $60M we should be expecting them to spend in free agency this offseason. There's no need to trade major leaguers when that's the case. Go out and sign the help you need to fill holes instead of trying to fill 1 hole while creating another.

1. Defensive metrics are trash. 2. If you've decided Arraez's 2nd half stats mean he's on his way to being an empty .280 hitter soon I'm pretty sure major league teams have figured that out as well and he's got 0 trade value already. What realistic trade do you think they can get for either of them that improves the 2023 MN Twins as a whole? They're both top 4 hitters in the lineup, do you think a team is trading a different top 4 bat for one of them? You'd need a perfect situation to find a team that has a 2B hole that they think can be filled by one of those guys and they also have a top 4 bat at C, SS, or RH cOF that they'd be willing to ship out for one of those 2. I can't think of any team with multiple top 4 bats at either C or SS so can't fill either of those holes by trading one of those 2, and a RH cOF is super easy to fill without having to trade away one of your top 4 hitters. Nobody is trading frontline starting pitching for either of those guys. Not even in a package, because no team thinks they have so much frontline starting pitching that they can compete in 2023 even after trading some away for a 2B and some prospects. You could get some prospect arms back for a package built around one of these guys, but the Twins don't need that, they need current MLB players that can improve their major league team. So the only option left is trading them for bullpen help. I personally wouldn't trade either of them for a bullpen piece, but you may feel different on that, which is completely fine.

I'm making the statement on my own. I don't think he's even remotely good enough defensively to be an everyday 2B (especially without the shift), and I think if his knees couldn't hold up for the entire season playing 72% of his games at 1B and DH this season they really couldn't hold up for an entire season if he was an everyday 2B. And the Twins wouldn't move Polanco back to SS because they didn't want his ankles dealing with the extra stress there so I'm not sure why we'd think they'd move Arraez off 1B to 2B with the shift disappearing where his knees would be under significantly greater stress. My belief is that Arraez vs Polanco is not an apples to apples comparison. Polanco is an everyday 2B, Arraez is not. They're not a 1 for 1 proposition.

Arraez is no longer a 2B. That's my problem with all of this "trade Polanco" talk. The Twins don't currently have a logjam at 2B. They have 1 major league quality 2B in the org right now and his name is Jorge Polanco. Arraez can't play a full season there, especially without the shift where his lack of range would be killer. Arraez is a DH/1B/3B in that order. I don't see him as part of this conversation at all, and I'd bet the team doesn't either. As for the prospects, that's all they are. Julien and Martin are fun to think about right now cuz they're tearing up the AFL, but Julien is not a good defender, and Martin has to hit for more than 3 weeks before he's any part of the major league equation. I don't see any player anywhere in the org that is at all capable of being the opening day 2B outside of Polanco. Why would we trade one of the few above average players we have left on the roster? Nobody is pushing Jorge out right now. Trading him would be a self inflicted wound that I think is completely unnecessary. They can spend to fill every hole they have. Why create a hole at 2B to attempt to fill a hole that can be filled simply by spending?

Topic suggestion: "New school vs Old school"- could do things like starting pitcher average start length (pulling pitchers early vs letting them work out of it), or HRs and OBP vs sac bunts and steals. I'm sure there's plenty of other "old school vs new school" topics, but those are the 2 I think come up most often on these forums.

deGrom on a low years, high AAV deal is intriguing. He's the best pitcher on the planet when healthy. I wouldn't be super excited to add another high injury risk to the roster, but at least this one has "best in baseball" upside. Otherwise, it's Rodon or Bassitt. I'd be happy with either one, even if Rodon has injury risk and Bassitt isn't quite a true #1 in my eyes.

I think Miranda and Arraez make a perfectly fine 1B, and AK is better there than the OF, so I wouldn't be looking to make any sort of splash at 1B. So I'm just seeing catcher, SS, and BP guys (I'd also like a Rodon type signing, but not holding my breath). That's 4 guys. And I think they have easily 4 spots on the 40 they can clear. I don't create a hole at 2B (and that's what I think would happen if you trade Polo) to fill another hole. I just don't see trading Jorge being a ticket to upgrading the team overall so I wouldn't want to trade one of their few established above average players.

I think the difference is that the top 3B prospect in the org (Miranda) has already graduated and is on the major league team. He's not established as he'll need to show he can make adjustments in his 2nd season, but he's shown he can hit major league pitching. You're not clearing a spot for an unknown by moving on from Urshela (and for the record I wouldn't move on from him). Moving on from Polanco would be to clear a spot for an unknown or Arraez who's knees pretty clearly can't handle a full season at 2B and is a fielder who will struggle mightily at 2B without the shift. I don't believe in the "logjam" theory others do. You don't have a logjam until you have too many proven, healthy major leaguers for all 26 spots. The Twins don't have more than 26 proven, healthy major leaguers, in my opinion.

If they trade Polanco they should trade every veteran and start over. I don't see how you improve the team by trading him. Seattle is not giving up Hancock for Polanco. Nobody is giving up a pitcher better than Gray for Polanco. The only hope for a better team without Polanco than with Polanco is if you're trading him to clear money to sign Correa, Turner, and Rodon. There are no prospects that deserve space on the MLB team be cleared for them. There's some solid guys that should get chances throughout 2023, but none have proven they can help the Twins win and deserve a spot out of ST for a winning club. If they're trying to win they need to keep Jorge Polanco. If they're starting over they need to trade Kepler, Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Gio, Lopez, and any other veteran I'm forgetting (Buxton has a no trade clause) and start over. Don't rearrange the deck chairs. Either sink the titanic and start over or go in and reinforce the hull so it can handle more iceberg damage and keep on truckin.

Totally agree, I just really want them to finally be aggressive. Hopefully they feel their jobs are on the line and that sparks some boldness.

Archer and the team were pretty open about him not being a relief option because of how much work went into getting him ready to pitch each time. I don't disagree that they seem to give some guys extra chances for contract, or trade, costs, but Archer doesn't seem to be one as his situation was more about just physically not being able to get loose on notice in order to relieve.

This would be the worst possible direction they could go, in my opinion. Either blow it up or go big. Returning with darn near the same team next year would be a disaster in my eyes. If you're going young, go young. If you're trying to really compete in 2023 then you need to add some veterans significantly better than Iglesias, Leon, and Boxberger. This team just wastes a season of service time for the young guys while not actually competing. Time to S or get off the pot and pick a direction. If they're not significantly upgrading the roster don't stop with Gio and Kepler in trades. Send Mahle and Gray back out. Move Polanco. See what you can get for Maeda, Lopez, and Thielbar. Blow it up and start over or actually invest in going for it.

Based on this list alone (so no Rodon option) it's Kodai Senga or wait out the Walker, Manaea, Eflin, Taillon types to see if you can get one of them for a 1 or 2 year deal. If not it's no big loss and move on with what they have in the rotation while spending a ton on position players and the pen.

That's absolutely fantastic.

For the record I would argue it's changed for the worse. I don't enjoy the new game. But not playing the new style equals more losses and I'm against the Twins losing games. Recent reports have the White Sox interviewing Ozzie Guillen for their open managerial spot. They appear pretty dead set on testing the "old school manager will help" theory over there.

Tony La Russa has 37 years experience as a big league manager with 2902 wins, 2nd most in MLB history, but he's not catching Connie Mack. He has 71 postseason wins, which is 2nd in MLB history. Thirteen division titles, six World Series appearances, and three World Series titles. Already a HOF manager. All of that is better than Bruce Bochy. Maybe it's just me, but he was brutally bad for the White Sox and did them just as much harm as Baldelli did to the Twins because the game has changed and the answer isn't simply bringing back "old school" managers.

I mean the 6.6 mil and a really good Rogers for the first couple months of the season probably gives the Padres the win for this season. If Paddack is good in 2024 the Twins probably win the deal overall. Or if either prospect turns out for the Brewers they probably claim victory on their side of things. I don't think anyone is feeling like they fleeced anyone in this deal, though. And, for the record, that's how it's supposed to work. I know we have a tendency to want to name someone the "winner" of a trade, but the actual people in front offices aren't trying to "win" trades. They're legitimately attempting to give up equal value for equal value. So both of the Rogers deals this summer seem to have worked out to be even. They were just all on the negative side of value for every team involved, unfortunately. So my vote is nobody won. Every team lost for the 2022 season.

I'm not suggesting rushing him, but am suggesting not holding him back. It's the orgs job to know when someone is ready. The Braves continue to call guys up who are dominating AA and never even play in AAA and those guys are excelling. If Julien is ready at some point in 2023 and there's an opening there's no reason not to call him up. He'll be on the 40 man already. He should definitely start in AAA, but once they get beyond the first 2 weeks of the season there's not even service time concerns when I comes to calling him up. If he's ready and he can help the Twins win games call him up. That's all I'm saying. Don't force him up before he's ready, but don't make him stay in AAA just to keep him in AAA. And, while 24 may not be old, Julien would definitely prefer to get his service clock ticking ASAP. Holding him in AAA all year "just because" would literally cost him millions when it pushes his free agency opportunity into his age 30+ seasons.

No. It wasn't. That's not even a little bit what that quote is saying. The Twins being the benefactors of him falling to #8 and his knee injury are two separate ideas in that quote. They're stating the Twins were lucky to get him at 8. Then they are informing people of how his college career started. None of the top 7 teams passed on him because of an injury that literally took place 3 seasons before he was drafted. That is not what that quote is saying. I don't know what that article is from, but does the next sentence continue on with how he completely dominated both college seasons, a north woods season, and a cape cod season after that injury? I'd bet it does. I mean the team that shook up the draft was the Rangers. They drafted Kumar Rocker #3 overall after the Mets didn't sign him the season before because of an elbow injury, but your argument is that the other 6 teams in the top 7 passed on Lee because of a knee injury 3 years prior that he showed he not only healed from, but excelled after? You're wrong here, I'm sorry. If that's the best source you have you have no sources since that quote isn't at all saying what you're claiming it's saying.

The fans as a whole will complain far less if they win. They complained about the Mauer deal because it was an easy thing to point to as the reason why the team was awful for the end of it. If the Twins are winning playoff games while Correa is 35, playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans won't care so much. If they're finishing 3rd in the division while Correa is 35 playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans will point at him as the reason the team is bad. As almost everything in pro sports goes, it's all about winning. Win and the fans don't do much booing.

This is all very true (I even thought about mentioning the competition for fandom in SD vs Minneapolis), but it doesn't make being a Twins fan any less frustrating. Keep your calm thoughts to yourself! I'm obviously kidding, but only kinda.

I think it's hard to say St. Peter is part of the problem, but I certainly don't think he's part of the solution. As you said in your previous post, it's hard to "blame" the Pohlads or St. Peter for running the Twins like a business, but it's certainly frustrating. But, as for St Peter, he's just doing his job to the best of his abilities. The Pohlads tell him the marks they want to hit in profits and he gives the FO a budget based on that.