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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    The offense has been good enough to contend for the division this year. Losing Cruz obviously hurts now, but he was a FA and would have had to have been resigned for next year anyways. I think it's more than reasonable to expect the returning position players to provide another year of division winning caliber offense next year. Pitching has been the destroyer of the Twins world this year. Going into next year I think Berrios, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, and Alacala were the only 5 guys on the current staff that had their spots locked up. Now it's just Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, and Alcala. So the question for next year, in my opinion, is what can they do to build a staff with Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, and their upper minors prospects (including Ober, Jax etc. in the prospect category for ease of not typing them all out) plus about $50M? I think there's a reasonable chance they can use 50M and their upper minors prospects to build a staff around the 4 incumbents next year. Not WS good, but certainly much better than this year. I'm not writing next year off. If 1 or 2 of the upper minors guys can step into rotation or BP spots they have half a staff with 50M to fill in the rest. Think it's doable. All this to say I think holding onto Donaldson isn't a terrible thing and losing Cruz and Berrios doesn't bury them.
  2. chpettit19
    This season doesn't matter anymore. Hasn't for weeks, if not months. Do we agree on that? The focus is 2022 and beyond, right? As for 2022, do you think the Twins have a better chance of competing in 2022 with basically the whole offense coming back (minus Cruz, which is obviously a big loss), Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, 50M(ish) to spend, and SWR, Martin, Ryan, and Strotman, or the whole offense (still without Cruz), Berrios, Maeda, Rogers Duffey, 40M(ish) to spend and no SWR, Martin, Ryan, or Strotman? What do you think the odds of competing in 2022 looked like in those 2 scenarios? By competing I simply mean winning the division (let's walk before we run to the WS). Yes, if you only care about the MLB team you should absolutely check out for the rest of 2021. It's not going to get better. Did you want them to trade prospects the last couple weeks in an attempt to get better for 2021 or just keep the same bad team in place? What were your goals for the rest of 2021?
  3. chpettit19
    But you need prospects to build a team that can win the World Series. Nobody is building their team off FA and MLB player trades alone. The Dodgers aren't the Dodgers without Buehler, Urias, Seager, Smith, Bellinger, Gonsolin, and May. All of which are players they called up and are still not FA eligible.
  4. chpettit19
    We don't have any idea what the pitching going into 2022 will be. We only know it won't have Berrios now. They'll have 50+m to spend this offseason (based on the predicted 40m+not paying Berrios his arb salary). If I read your post right you're suggesting they'll have basically the same offense as 2019 and 2020 (agreed), but now they're going into the offseason with Maeda in the rotation and Duffey, Rogers, Alacala in the pen. The question is can they turn 50M and their current upper level prospects into a competitive pitching staff for next year. I think there's a chance. At least as good of a chance as doing it with Berrios, 40m, and no Woods Richardson (or Martin for the offense).
  5. chpettit19
    I don't think the Twins got anyone in A ball this deadline (I may have missed a deal). They brought in 2 arms for Cruz that should debut in the next few weeks. They brought in 2 AA players for Berrios who should debut next year. The traded Happ for living, breathing humans which is some sort of voodoo hex move. The Twins are a bad team this year. They have a very good chance of finishing in last place in the division. They likely weren't going to catch the White Sox next year with Berrios and he's made it abundantly clear that he's going to the highest bidder in 2023. Keeping him for 1 more year where they were still not going to win the division doesn't make sense. Cruz was on an expiring deal. Keeping him for 2 more months doesn't make sense. Happ has been awful and is on an expiring deal so keeping him had no value. What would your plan have been today? Keep the whole team? Build a team around the likes of Refsnyder and Garlick? Of all the different plans for building a team that are thrown around on these message boards I think trying to build around career minor leaguers is the least likely to work. They're career minor leaguers for a reason. Every team builds through the minors. Even the Dodgers and Yankees. They can supplement their young guys better, but they're built through calling guys like Buehler, Bellinger, Smith, Seager, Urias up. How would you build the Twins given the team they had coming into July this year?
  6. chpettit19
    So your argument is that the Twins have been bad this year because of the veterans added recently so the Twins should acquire veterans so they aren't bad?
  7. chpettit19
    Next 10 years?! Dang, they're not going to hit on any prospects are they?
  8. chpettit19
    And I'd argue the Twins "rebuild" right now is going to much quicker than any team you mentioned. They'll come back with a solid offense still next year and have at least 50m to play with for rebuilding the pitching. Plus they have brought in all players who are looking to debut this year or next. Absolutely no guarantee they hit on all, or even most, of their prospects, but their upper minors are loaded with guys ready to get their chance. I think this has been about as good of an outcome from this disaster of a year as possible.
  9. chpettit19
    And now another team has watched him do what he's done here and STILL think he's worthwhile on their contending team.
  10. chpettit19
    I think the point is that it's all a risk. There's no move that carries no risk. Paying Berrios 25-30m a year doesn't mean he's going to stay healthy and keep producing. The Pohlads spending more money than the team makes doesn't mean they're going to win a World Series. The Dodgers have been spending crazy amounts for 10 years and have 1 title to show for it. The Padres have spent on anyone and everyone for years and are in 3rd place in their division. The Sox had a 200m(ish) payroll last year and didn't make the playoffs. Cubs outspend the vast majority of teams and just blew up their team. Is trading Berrios fun for any fan when it comes to this season? Absolutely not. But holding onto him in some last ditch effort to compete next year when your odds of catching the White Sox are incredibly small isn't that much fun either. He's going to the highest bidder for 2023. If the Twins are that team then he'll be back here.
  11. chpettit19
    Sent JA Happ to St Louis. Are they now the best FO ever?
  12. chpettit19
    They also really really need up the middle prospects. Unless you're convinced Lewis is the SS of the future, Austin Martin is a great get to boost the chance they have their future SS in house now and ready to debut next year sometime.
  13. chpettit19
    Martin was drafted #5 overall last year. He's started his professional career at AA and is more than holding his own. Most prospect sites have his ETA as next year. The only real question anyone has had about his bat is if he'll hit 10-15 HRs or 20-25. Probably a Lewis type defender who is borderline at SS, but can go to CF, 2B, 3B or almost anywhere else easily. He's a huge get.
  14. chpettit19
    Fair enough. I don't think he's done some out of this world job, but I don't think the MLB team would've been top 10 in ERA each of the last 2 seasons with Ryan and Co still running the show. I'm higher on the arms in the system than you, but we'll start getting our answers on them the next 2 months and next season. But I certainly don't think you're off in crazy town with your assessment.
  15. chpettit19
    Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, JT Chargois, Ben Rortvedt, Adalberto Mejia, and Nick Burdi make a better system than Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, Sabato, Canterino, Ryan, Cavaco, Urbina, Enlow, and Rooker? (That's the MLB.com ranks that I don't necessarily agree with) Agree to disagree on the idea that the system is even comparable to now. The depth in the system now far surpasses that from 2016, in my opinion. I assume you're talking Sano, Buxton, Berrios when you say "incredible nucleus of top 100 talents." If you're talking total team talent I guess I'll agree to disagree there, too. Twins Win% from 2011 to now by season: .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364 (2016), .525, .481, .623, .600, .417. Hard to argue there was much on the MLB or in the minor leagues. They'd had 1 season over .500 in the 6 seasons before Falvey took over. They've had 3 in his 5 years. He didn't start with nothing, but let's not act like he was handed a team with any real previous success or the Dodgers' budget. Has he been perfect? No. Has he been great? No. Has he improved the team? There's no way you can argue he hasn't. This year has been awful. I get it. But, in my opinion, that shouldn't wipe out everything that happened before it. He failed this offseason. It's as simple as that. He misjudged the FA pitching he brought in. No debate against it. But outside of that he's been pretty darn good.
  16. chpettit19
    The comment I replied to said Odorizzi was the only trade the Twins had won with Falvine. So I was just adding in the Maeda deal. Totally agree with everything there. There was talk of Baddoo possibly being taken before the rule 5, but you couldn't find a single person on the planet (nobody for the Tigers, and probably not even Akil himself) who thought he'd be putting up the numbers he is this year. Lots of revisionist history and 20/20 hindsight takes place during seasons like this. Understandably I guess. People need to blame someone.
  17. chpettit19
    Twins team ERA per season since the season before Falvey got here til now: 5.49, 4.86, 4.78, 4.65, 3.58, 5.36 Twins team ERA rank amongst all MLB teams per season since the season before Falvey got here til now: 29, 19, 22, 9, 4, 28 So yes, this year has been an unquestioned disaster, but let's not act like this team has had atrocious pitching the last couple years. They've had top 10 ERAs the last 2 years. So he's probably identified slightly more than 0 quality pitchers. He took an awful team with an awful farm and turned them into a top 10 staff after 2 seasons. Not sure what else you wanted from the guy.
  18. chpettit19
    I'd argue the Maeda trade has been an unquestioned win to this point.
  19. chpettit19
    I like it. Can't imagine the Padres are giving up Weathers at this point, though. If Snell and Paddack were pitching better I think this is a deal that could maybe get done, but Weathers would start a playoff game over either of those 2 right now so can't imagine they'll deal him. Perhaps Paddack instead of Weathers coming back to MN?
  20. chpettit19
    A conversation requires at least 2 parties exchanging ideas. To this point you've refused to share any ideas beyond "the longer this team waits, the less of a return they will get." without any reasoning as to why. So I will move on to discussions with people who are willing to provide ideas and not just be condescending while refusing to discuss actual ideas. Hope you have a wonderful day.
  21. chpettit19
    I don't see your point. You haven't made one. You compared the trade deadline to a test. They aren't comparable things. A test is an individual activity that has only 1 possible answer to each question. The trade deadline is an interaction between dozens of people with moving parts and human dynamics. So if you have a reason to believe that getting closer to the deadline equals worse prospect returns for selling teams I'd love to hear it as perhaps I'm mistaken in my belief and I'm always looking to gain more knowledge. But so far I've provided multiple reasons why I take the stance I do and you've provided a picture of a horse that compares 2 things that aren't comparable.
  22. chpettit19
    I don't get it. That isn't an argument against any of the points I made. Do the Twins need to trade Berrios more or do "Contender X" need to add a pitcher like Berrios more? If the Twins don't trade Berrios by tomorrow at 3 CT they still have him for next season. They can still trade him in the offseason. If Contender X doesn't trade for Berrios (or another pitcher of his quality, of which there's only 1 other available) they're stuck. If the Dodgers get Scherzer today does that raise or lower the Padres offer for Berrios? I'd argue it makes Preller more desperate to stick with the Dodgers and Giants by upping his offer. So, if you'd like to have a real discussion on this, I ask again, why is it automatically a failure that they haven't traded him yet? You can respond to my points about the other handful of players I listed in the other post too if you'd like. But I'm not interested in meaningless memes that don't have any actual arguments or counterpoints. Sorry.
  23. chpettit19
    I'm not sure why deals not having been done yet is such a concern. The Twins have some throw away expiring contract guys (Simmons, Happ, Colome, Robles) who won't fetch anything more than a lottery ticket, if that. so I can't imagine there's real negotiations going on about any of them. They're basically team calls, Twins say we need 1 of these handful of guys, other team says yes or no, move on. Then there's a Pineda type who may have a little more back and forth as he's on an expiring deal, but he's still useful. But he's low on the list of targets for contenders. Sure, a contender will take him for a lottery ticket A ball player now, but if that contender is the one left standing without one of the Scherzer/Berrios level guys it's entirely possible the contender ups their package as they're more desperate to get another arm. As far as Berrios goes I'm not sure why things not getting done yet is bad. Scherzer getting added to the mix changed the dynamics. He became the #1 target of anyone looking for pitching. If the Twins have set their asking price for Berrios and are sticking to it I don't know why that's bad. The goal isn't to unload him just to unload him. They can still deal him during the offseason if they're not getting offers they like now. Or next deadline. Or take their comp pick. I'd like to just get it over with and see what they get, but the idea that they've somehow failed by not trading everyone yet doesn't make sense to me. The deadline itself is a great motivator for the contenders. Not sure why the assumption is the FO is automatically screwing things up because moves haven't happened yet.
  24. chpettit19
    I think Abrams will be top 5 on every major prospect ranking that comes out after the deadline. Top 1 or 2 on some. Don't see any way the Padres move him. He'll be their CFer of the future if they want Tatis at SS. Or Tatis will move to CF if he's open to that. Either way I don't think there's any chance the Padres trade him for anyone currently available at the deadline. Him and Tatis are their future up the middle.
  25. chpettit19
    I'd certainly take Campusano back, but agree with Dman that I don't really like the Padres system as a match for the Twins. They could certainly sell a Gore and Campusano return for Berrios being a great get, but Gore is free falling down rankings and doesn't seem to be the same guy anymore. Could the Twins (or another org) fix him? Always possible, but I'm sure the Pads are still trying to sell him as a top 5 pitching prospect in all of baseball and he isn't that right now. As for the Twins catcher depth and adding Campusano to it I like the idea, but wouldn't be my priority. I like Jeffers and Rortvedt, but I don't think anyone would argue there isn't room for improvement there if you can make it. I question how much longer Garver will be a catcher as he gets into his 30s. He's already bad defensively, and if he's going to be one of their better bats the next couple years you'd want him to be in the lineup more than he would be as strictly a catcher. I like the trio, but they certainly need an influx of minor league talent. I'd just focus on SS (again agree with Dman that Toronto is a better system fit as I'd like any of their top 3 SS prospects) over catcher. That trio being around for 2 more years with 2 of them around for the next 5 gives me enough comfort to prioritize SS as we are severely lacking in true SS talent on the horizon (I think Lewis and Polanco can survive there, but are better in CF and 2B respectively).
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