chpettit19

My comments were never about anyone saying Flexen is top of the rotation, or even a useful pitcher. They have been that any idea of him having been a good signing for the Twins this offseason is based on 20/20 hindsight knowing he's been better than Happ and Shoemaker. He had done nothing prior to the last 10 weeks to make any claim that he had a chance to be useful on a contending team. Happ and Shoemaker, on the other hand, have both had success in the majors. Shoemaker couldn't stay healthy and was brought in to get some early season innings since the league was coming off a shortened season and covering innings was going to be a problem. The wheels fell off almost immediately, but the thought process in the offseason was sound. Happ has had above average ERA+s every year since 2015 except one. He was brought in to provide solid veteran innings at the back end of the staff and eat innings coming off a shortened season. The offseason thought process was sound. Flexen was coming off 1 good year in Korea and 3 DFA quality season in MLB. He was a flier for a non-contending team to see if he had made an adjustment overseas and could be an option in the years to come. Signing a player like him in the offseason would not have been a sound process for a contending team. Hindsight says he'd be a better #5 arm than Happ and Shoemaker, but suggesting the Twins missed out on some obvious sign or should have made a "creative" signing while trying to win a world series is not based in sound team building based on the information the team had during the offseason.

Miles Mikolas had had success in MLB prior and had 3 dominant years overseas, not 1. And Sanchez and Smyly match the Happ and Shoemaker signings, not the Flexen signing. That's the point. Contending teams don't bring in guys with 1 good Korean year and 3 horrid MLB years. I'm sure you can find an example, but it's certainly not the norm. As for the FO being open to creativity/upside they bring in "creative/upside" bullpen options every year and fans are pissed.

The Twins were looking to contend this year. Flexen didn't fit the mold of a guy that should be plugged into a contending team's rotation. That's exactly why he signed with a team looking forward and not a team looking to compete this year. The Twins went into this season attempting to win the world series while the Mariners were looking to test guys out and see what they have for the future. Plugging a guy who may turn out for future years into the rotation of a team trying to win the world series is not good team management. And every FO factors in the fan base when making baseball decisions to some extent. Obviously it shouldn't be the #1 factor, but the fans are part of the equation. Flexen having a good year in the KBO doesn't outweigh his 3 years of 8.07 ERA in the majors when it comes to a contending team. If the Twins knew Colome, Happ, and Shoemaker would all suddenly forget how to pitch they wouldn't have signed them. If they knew this year was going to go so disastrously off the rails they would've been trying to use their foresight when signing guys to deals. But they expected Colome, Happ, and Shoemaker to be relatively close to their career norms. They expected to compete. Flexen didn't fit that plan.

This is still 20/20 hindsight. Yes, he's been solid this year, but a team trying to win the world series wasn't bringing him in to take a rotation spot because of 1 good year in Korea. That 1 good year doesn't outweigh the 3 disastrous ones in MLB. The Twins also should've drafted deGrom in any of the first 8 rounds before he went in the 9th, but they didn't know that then. Flexen is a fine signing for a team without any real aspirations for winning this year. He wasn't the type of signing a contending team makes a major league deal with.

Real 20/20 hindsight here. He was a guy coming off seasons of 7.88, 12.79, and 6.59 ERAs in 68 innings. Could you imagine how hard it would have been for the FO to sell a fanbase that he's a good signing for a team trying to win a world series? He's still an average to below average pitcher this year (97 ERA+, 4.12 ERA, 3.78 FIP). People were pissed when they claimed Wisler last year as a mop up/mid reliever type who hadn't performed. Imagine them signing a guy with an 8.07 ERA for the rotation when they were trying to win. As for the 1 year deals, they have used that strategy the last couple years because Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, et al were supposed to start showing up last year. Instead the season got canceled and then MLB pushed back the MiLB season this year and injuries have slowed their progression back. They have been trying to contend and signing veteran guys to short deals is a better way to supplement your homegrown core than taking fliers on 5th starters with 8.07 ERAs.

You're on here basically everyday commenting how awful the FO, and Rocco, and most of the players are. You're now stating that everyone who says Celestino is a legit CFer is wrong based on a couple weeks of MLB games. If me pointing out that your assessments are based on less data and going against industry wide agreed upon assessments come off as calling you stupid I apologize. I mean it in a "maybe reassess your assessments since they go against industry wide conclusions so maybe you're missing some information" way. None of us are professional scouts or FO execs (at least that I know of). But many of the writers on this site have contacts with more knowledge and information, and some of the commenters have backgrounds that lend themselves to more educated opinions. We're all entitled to our opinions, and you're entitled to feel as though Celestino doesn't have a legit shot at being an MLB CFer. But just like you get to question, and argue against, the FO decisions and other commenters opinions I (and anyone else) gets to question, and argue against, your opinions. I apologize for coming off as calling you stupid as that wasn't my intention. Simply disagreeing.

There's a lot going on on a baseball field every pitch. He's not just standing there picking daisies waiting for the pitch. The differences between AA and MLB in the game, life style, expectations, everything are very different. I'd love him and every player to just step in and perform at their peak abilities from the jump just like you. But that's not how humans work. Teams try their best to limit the amount of stimulus and information they heap on rookies, especially ones who weren't ready and were forced in due to injuries. So they let him play more or less where he normally does based on the information they give him on hitter push/pull tendencies. I've seen them shift him around here and there. But whether you want to accept it or not there is a difference in fielding at different levels and the comfortability factor of where a player positions himself matters. You may not like it, but it doesn't change that fact. Calling up a player prematurely and then telling him you're going to change how he's played the game while you're at it is poor team management. They didn't change Buxton's positioning overnight either. It took him (arguably the best defensive CFer in the game) years to adjust and you're over here dismissing a kid who can't make the shift overnight. Again, this all says more about your understanding of things than anything about Celestino and his future MLB prospects.

The point isn't that 105 doesn't equal 105 in the minors, its that there are fewer 105s in the minors. If you're used to guys not being able to beat you over your head cuz they can't hit it hard enough you play shallower to take away the weak contact. If it's an organization wide thing that they position minor leaguers shallow only to see them get beat by it in the bigs that's obviously a concern. But I'd guess they aren't doing as in depth of positioning in the minors (especially AA and below like Celestino has played). And there are enough things for young guys, especially those not ready for the majors, to worry about that you're not going to try to mess with their basic positioning (worry more about left and right shifts than front and back). The bottom line is that you position yourself differently and have to read batted balls at different exit velos depending on the level of play you're at. The longer you spend at that level (I'm talking little league, high school, college, minors, majors, and everything in between) the more comfortable you get with your positioning and reading those balls. If you think there's as many guys hitting the ball with 90+ exit velos on a regular basis in A ball as there are in the majors I have a bridge to sell you. Do you not think there's a difference in the way the average AA hitter hits than the way the average MLB hits? You think the ball is coming off their bat the same way?

It does all count. Including the hundreds (thousands?) of innings he's played before the last few weeks that you've seen him. Your earlier post complained about him playing too shallow (same thing Buxton did when he came up, by the way). You think maybe that's a habit he picked up because he was fast enough (88th percentile sprint speed) to get back on minor league fly balls that aren't hit as hard and now he's seeing in the majors that the ball gets there a little quicker? Same with his routes (although I'd simply disagree that his routes are as bad on a regular basis as you make them sound). If you're used to me hitting fly balls to center you get comfortable knowing the ball over your head you can most likely get to, and the ball to the gap will hang up more due to lack of power behind the swing. But when a major leaguer hits one they travel quicker and farther. That's why they're in the majors and I'm not. The idea that you've watched him play a handful of games and have decided he's a grade 40 fielder when people with years of scouting experience pretty unanimously grade him at 60 as a fielder should say more about your scouting ability than anything.

Thank you for explaining exactly why "Just call up the kids and see what you have" is an awful strategy. Celestino isn't terribly far off from being MLB ready, but he was called up way before they would have liked, and well before he was ready. And you've now pegged him as having basically no value. Players aren't drafted as completed products in baseball. They need time to learn and adjust. Celestino is, and will be, a very good defensive centerfielder, but he's in a league over his head and you're seeing mistakes because of it. This is why the minor leagues exist and exactly why you don't just call up prospects to see what you have. It's entirely predictable that almost all of them will get battered by far more advanced players.

Use of technology. Expert in Rapsodo, Trackman, etc. and being able to use technology to improve a pitcher's efficiency and pitch mix.

If the question is about the crackdown on sticky stuff you need to present RPMs and Bauer units. A comparison of Twins spin rates vs league spin rates would be interesting. Maybe the Twins are the only honest team in the league and that's why their pitching is so horrible and as teams quit cheating we'll be closer to league average? We could hope at least.

Clay is 28 and just making his MLB debut after 6 minor league seasons with an ERA of 4 and a WHIP of 1.5. He has an ERA of 4.5, 1.7 WHIP, and more hits allowed than innings pitched. Has a negative WAR. He's not young, and he's not exactly holding his own.

Such a dangerous game to play picking out 1 player and saying "Team X missed on him and should've known better." You can do it for any number of players and every organization. Littell is a bummer because it felt knee jerk to cut him from the 40 man when he was hurt, but let's not forget, as the OP mentions, no other team claimed him. It's not like he was some great prospect or player that had teams knocking down the door to get him. He went unclaimed and then signed a minor league deal. Happens all the time to thousands of players so picking out 1 and saying "look what the Twins screwed up!" is quite a bit misleading. Obviously Ortiz leads Twins fans to make these complaints quite often. Hendricks is often brought up, too, but he's a great example of 20/20 hindsight. He wasn't good for the Twins as a starter. Was here under a different regime. Was bad for Toronto and KC after he left (KC even tried him in the pen in the year they were the bullpen whisperers and couldn't get him right). Was mostly solid with some flashes of greatness for Toronto and Oakland for the next 4 years (8 years deep in his career at this point). Then finally blew up in his 9th big league season at the age of 30 for Oakland. So acting like the Twins clearly missed something in Hendricks is revisionist history at best. You can make a list of very good players that were DFA'd, traded, lost to rule 5, etc. for every major league team. Even those super geniuses in Tampa. It happens every single year. Just feels like whatever team you cheer for does it more because you pay attention to that team more closely. Littell certainly looks like he'd help this embarrassment of a pen this year, but he went unclaimed last year and most of the people now clamoring to have him back would have been complaining about having him part of the bullpen plan as we started the season. Plenty of people complained the Twins didn't bring Wisler back and complain about the way the Twins build a pen, but the Giants used the same approach and brought them both in only to see Wisler collapse and Littell succeed. Thus is the life of 90% of bullpen arms.

OF: Buxton, Larnach, Kepler/Player X (Garlick? Rooker?) platoon IF: Donaldson, FA Signing (Really hoping Twins do non-Twins thing and sign a big name SS), Polanco, Kirilloff Catchers: Garver, Jeffers Bench: Gordon, Arraez, Player Y That offense can compete for the division next year. If Player Y is Sano that's cool, but I'd prefer to move on from him. Starters: Berrios, Maeda, Pitchers X, Y, and Z Pen: Rogers, Alcala, Pitchers A-Z This staff cannot compete next year. Hoping during the second half of this season we see if Duran can take a spot in the rotation. Or Balazovic. Or Canterino. They need to sign a legit starter (not a 30m guy, but a 20m guy). The pitching market is not overly impressive this offseason, but they have to get 1 of the top 5 guys. The pen needs all the help it can get. Wouldn't be upset seeing Robles come back, but if he's one of your top 3 or 4 guys it's probably going to be a long year again. Second half of this season hopefully provides a chance to see if Moran, Cano, etc. can provide help next year. They also need to sign 2 legit guys. I'm not a fan of paying pen guys 15m a year, but find two 10m guys and pray they don't become Colome 2.0. The offense is ready to compete and I think that should stop the FO from doing anything crazy and blowing it up. There's a lot of young guys in that group and blowing it up wastes all of them. Pitching needs to be addressed in a big way. The time is now to see if their pitching pipeline plans were developed the right way and can start producing. Plenty of talk on here of Falvine being a bust with pitching prospects, but that's ignoring how long it takes to develop pitching and the fact that there was no 2020 MiLB season. But results need to start to be seen late this year and next year would be the measuring stick if I'm ownership. Can one of the stable of young arms come up and look like a legit front end arm? If not its much more acceptable to doubt the FO. Firing the FO and Rocco is a knee jerk response to an abysmal year, but ignores the progress that has been made the last few years. Picking out Shoemaker, Colome, and Happ and saying the FO is a complete failure at signing FAs, etc. is ignoring Cruz, Donaldson, Pineda, Refsnyder, Garlick, Wisler, etc. The Twins had a top 5 pitching staff the last 2 years. Now they have a bottom 5. If you're going to blast them for this year at least give them credit for the previous 2. I'm not a fan of their "must be 100% to play" approach and all the off days and all that. If you prepare to only perform at 100% strength you're going to struggle when you have to perform at 75% strength. And nobody is at 100% in October. They've done so much to reduce any friction, stress, or adversity that it shouldn't be shocking that they crumble with friction, stress, and adversity in big moments and the playoffs. I'm not a Rocco fan, but firing him for this disaster is knee jerk as well. This season has been an embarrassment, but the whole team isn't in need of pink slips. The offense is ready to go (if the young guys haven't been infected by the "shrink in big moments" virus). Now they need to get a legit pitching staff and 2022 can look much different.

I can see the complaint, but just don't see it as that big of a deal to do once. If he hits the IL today or something you'll definitely be proven right, but those guys throw everyday anyways. I think he threw about 25 pitches the day before. Basically a bullpen session. Certainly wouldn't make a habit of it, but I think as a 1 off thing, that saved the pen and helped get a W last night, it's probably alright.

Hendricks is at the end of his career so weird choice to use there. Cruz has been an MVP level hitter since the Twins signed him so another weird choice to use. Donaldson has been an above average hitter for the Twins. And you realize most players hit the FA market in their early 30s, right? Like Hendricks who is 32. Cole is making 36m a year. So, again, it comes back to how big of a payroll the Twins can have. It'd be great if they could have a Yankee style 200m payroll, but that isn't realistic. So you can have Cole for 36m making up 24% of a 150m payroll (I think the Twins could manage a payroll that size) and try to build a roster around him that can compete (hint: going to have to hit on a whole lot of the prospects you call up) or you can have Maeda at 3-10m depending on what incentives he hits, Berrios at 6, and Pineda at 10 and still be 10m less than Cole by himself. Not to mention the absurdity of comparing Gerrit Cole and Randy Dobnak. Dobnak wasn't even in the opening day rotation. Comparing a top 5 pitcher in the game to our 6th pitcher isn't a useful exercise. When the Yankees have Cole as their 6th guy then you can make that complaint. Jameson Taillon brings up the back end of the Yankees rotation for 2.25m and has an ERA of 5.09 and a 1-4 record. Yankees get what they pay for! So cheap out there. How could they expect to be competitive with the likes of Taillon on their team? Would you like me to go into examples of big contracts that didn't turn out to disprove your idea of you get what you pay for? The Angels would love to speak with you about that. Oh, so would the Phillies. And the Mets. Cubs were 3rd in payroll and Red Sox were 4th last year, how'd that turn out? You don't get what you pay for. That's not how this works. Or the standings would simply reflect payroll size and the Rays wouldn't have a chance to ever compete. Simply put you need to deal with the Twins (and almost every team in the league) never signing Cole or Bauer style contracts. It's not a good use of resources.

Dobnak lost a fingernail in his last start. He's had an acrylic nail since then. Happens a number of times a year. Sounds more like Dobnak making excuses for getting shelled.

So you're upset that Donaldson's big deal isn't working out how you'd like and you think the answer to that is signing Trevor Bauer, fresh off a career year where he was clearly cheating, to a 3 year $102m deal? That's how you save the Twins? Sign a guy for 40m this year? And Liam Hendriks on top of that? You want a starter and a closer for over 50m a year and you think that saves this Twins team? Even if they just added those 2 guys on top of these team and pushed their payroll to almost 200m you'd still be looking at a losing team. That ignores the fact that it's not realistic for the Twins to have a 200m payroll so they'd have to get rid of a number of guys and you're looking at your 2 mammoth contracts and a bunch of AAA players.

Yes, Jax has been a starter in the minors. That's why they used him yesterday to get through multiple innings. Earned himself another look and may get a spot start or 2. I'm guessing he's sent back to the minors today, though, so they can add a usable arm to the pen. Welcome to the life of a borderline prospect.

Combination of things. Extra torque from throwing harder. Extra stress from throwing different pitches (splitters, etc.). Training is different and designed for max effort for more velocity so more stress on the arm that wasn't there back in the day. New technology lets us know there's an injury and how to treat it instead of trying to pitch/play through it. Even now players are given the option to play through partially torn UCLs. More stress put on arms from a young age without proper rest and recovery plans (velocity gets you noticed so they're going all out from the age of 12).

When do you use Jax then? If the team is made up of guys who think any rookie coming in to a game means they're quitting and shouldn't be fighting to the bitter end you need to replace the whole team. When Kirilloff made his debut did they think they were quitting? Larnach? Gordon? Ober? What about when Refsnyder had to start playing? Not a rookie, but not known as an elite level guy. Did the team throw in the towel for those guys too? Or just Jax because his debut didn't go well? Jax has a 3.20 ERA in over 280 minor league innings. They weren't exactly bringing me into the game.

Not to mention there being A LOT of season left. Not to compete (I think they're toast in terms of the playoffs), but simply in terms of having to get through the games. Without a minor league season last year they need all the arms they can get. A few more Shoemaker Ls just gets us a slightly better draft pick and gets us a little closer to the end of this miserable season. Hoping to see lots of young guys come through in August and September (especially those who need to be added to the 40 man this offseason), but at this point we just need guys who can get us through a few games, no matter how ugly the Ls end up being. Blowing out a bunch of prospect arms this year by forcing them to fill all the needed innings just ruins next year too. Gotta get them a taste this year, but innings counts actually matter this year.

A bunch of the arms should get some innings this year. If they continue to impress. The idea that the Twins should call them up just because they're prospects and "the future" isn't a sound strategy. Calling them up "to see what we have for the next couple years" isn't a sound strategy. Calling up a guy who isn't ready doesn't show you what you have for the future or give you any sort of idea of what you need to sign during the offseason. It shows you you called up a guy that wasn't ready and let them get their brains bashed in. Miranda looks like he'll be a 40 man add this offseason, but it's hard to find a place for him on this roster right now. Trading Simmons opens up a spot, but Donaldson, Polanco, Arraez, Kirilloff is still your starting IF with Gordon backing up the middle. Miranda can be the backup on the corners, but I'd be shocked if they trade Donaldson, and even trading Sano just leads to Kirilloff being everyday 1B. There are very few arms on the big league roster worthy of blocking prospects who are ready. Maeda and Berrios are probably the only 2. Dobnak and Thorpe get the first shots (whether you personally like them or not that's the truth). Dobnak is likely penciled into the 5th rotation spot next year (otherwise that extension, while not huge money, doesn't look great). Thorpe really will be out of options next year and he is someone they actually do need to see what they have. He'll get his chance to sink or swim as Happ, Shoemaker, Pineda(?) get traded or released. If Pineda isn't traded the rotation post-trade deadline is Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Dobnak, Thorpe. Injuries will continue to happen and the bullpen is wide open so there will be innings to be had from the prospects. Duran looks to be on track to debut as the team moves on from veterans and if he dominates for the next month or 2 in St Paul he may push Thorpe out of the way for 10-12 starts (depending on inning numbers). Canterino and Winders feel like guys who will get tossed into the bullpen in August or September to snag a few innings and get their feet wet, with a shot to get some starts if injuries are a problem. Hoping Balazovic gets his feet under him and can make a steady climb that leads to a September call up and a few starts. I think beyond those 4 the rest of the prospect arms can hope for bullpen inning scraps. A pitching staff of nearly all rookies in August and September is exciting, but a pitching staff of a bunch of rookies who aren't ready is a nightmare. It doesn't help them and doesn't tell us about the future. If they're ready get them innings so they can see what adjustments they'll need to make and have a good idea of how to succeed in the bigs next year and the future. But putting guys out there who aren't ready is bad prospect development. Celestino isn't ready and having him be overwhelmed at the plate then be part of a game costing error isn't telling us anything about his future (he's a stud defender in center), but it is hurting his confidence now. No reason to think he doesn't bounce back and continue to develop once he gets sent back to an appropriate level, but him being in the bigs while he isn't ready isn't telling us that we don't have our future CFer, it's telling us he should still be in AA like he would be if not for a crazy string of injuries.

Dodechedron's argument seems to be that they believe Berrios is basically a 2 month rental this year as well. That's why they think he'd be worth the same this deadline as next deadline. And that's why their logic is flawed. He's not a 2 month rental (whether the team acquiring him plans to only keep him for this year or not) this year, but Dodechedron is arguing that he is because the acquiring team would just look to trade him again next year. Bottom line is that whether the acquiring team would plan to keep him until he hits free agency or trade him again next year he is worth more this year (as you're saying) than next year. The extra year of team control makes him more valuable because you can have him for 2 playoff pushes or 1 playoff push and recoup some of your trade expense by moving him again. But if the team acquiring him this year got a better package (at the time of the trade, not final products as there are too many variables there) for him next year it'd be a complete failure by the Twins FO in asset management.