chpettit19

And as I pointed out in the original comment you responded to there's no reason to believe he's suddenly going to be super slow. Kevin Kiermaier topped out at 29.7 ft/s sprint speed back in 2015 at the age of 25. He's now at 29.1 ft/s sprint speed at the age of 31. Buxton is at 30.0 ft/s sprint speed at the age of 27. How much slower do you think he'll get in the next 5 years? Even dropping down to 29 ft/s keeps him in the 95th percentile of MLB players. There are only 40 players in MLB who have sprint speeds of 29 or faster. So there's no real reason to think he's suddenly going to be slow. Trout is 30 and has only dropped to 29.3. Jon Berti for the Marlins is 31 and sprinting at 29.9 ft/s. Billy hamilton is 31 at 29.6. Adam Engel 30 at 29.7. Phil Gosselin is 33 and sprinting 29.2. And none of those guys are coming from Buxton's top speed at 30.9.

In decline? At the age of 27 he's already at the point in his career where he's going to be getting significantly worse? Bold claim there. Not going to argue with you on the batting stats. If you want to believe he hasn't figured his hitting out over the last 2 years and is a different player than he was early on when they were changing his swing every other week I'm fine with you believing that. Agree to disagree. But he's still worth 7/80 plus incentives.

September will be a big month for Buck. If he comes back and plays the whole month at anything close to how he played his first 27 games this year it makes this offseason real interesting. He's going to stick to his demands of big incentives on that reported 7/80 base deal. But will also raise the type of package the Twins could demand if they refuse to meet his contract demands. I'm of the belief the Twins should sign him to whatever incentives he wants (assuming all incentives are based on that season and there aren't any future season vesting options he's talking about) as his value from his defense alone will be incredibly high into his mid 30s. I'm not a believer that he's going to hit 30 and suddenly go from 30 ft/s sprint speed to 25. Dude is fast enough and gets good enough jumps that even losing a step or 2 in his early 30s means he's the best defensive CFer in baseball. Reference point: Kevin Kiermaier is 31 and has gone from 29.7 ft/s in 2015 to 29.1 ft/s this year and is still in the 95th percentile for sprint speed. Buxton should be an elite glove man for his whole career. If he's a .300 hitter with 30+ bombs you're talking MVP and he's worth whatever incentives he's asking for. If the Twins can get him on a 7/80 base it's the absolute right move. With their limited payroll (whether self inflicted or not) this is their best chance to sign a player of this caliber to a long-term deal that doesn't kill their budget. If the Pohlads won't sign off on a deal like this due to the risk of their payroll jumping 15M in a season where they have the MVP then MLB should force them to sell.

Confused by people saying you can find Colina types anywhere. 24 year old who's dominated the minors, throws 100, and has the best slider in the org and you think you can just cut him and find someone else who fits that mold? He's the type of arm we've all been begging for in the Twins pen. Nobody is saying he's a sure fire stud, but he's most definitely somebody you keep on the 40 man and give a shot to next year.

Certainly don't want Simmons back next year, but pitching is why the Twins failed this year and now that they have young guys up I think keeping Simmons for his glove alone makes sense for the rest of this season. Let those young arms build confidence with their best SS option behind them instead of having 4 negative fielders behind them (assuming Donaldson DHs as is being suggested here). Making your young pitchers get 4 outs in half their innings because you have Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, and Sano behind them is more harmful to the 2022 Twins than having Miranda stay in AAA for a "playoff" run and keeping Simmons on the Twins. Help your young pitchers build confidence going into 2022. I'd love to see Miranda get his feet wet this year and make his debut with sky high confidence during the best hitting season of his life, but I think there's legit reasons he isn't up. I don't think he's being wasted in St Paul, and think there's something to be gained from him playing in competitive games during a "playoff" push and leading the team during the "playoffs." I don't think the experience of playing in pressure situations in St Paul this year instead of playing in meaningless games in Minneapolis is a complete waste. He doesn't get to face ML pitching, but he's learning to excel under pressure (hopefully). Also a lot of underselling of current Twins position players in this thread. If you don't like what Donaldson is doing for the money he's being paid you really shouldn't ever ask for the Twins to sign big name FAs ever again. He's missed a little time with health problems, but people make it sound like he's Buxton playing 35% of games or something. He's going to play in 120ish games (not ideal, but not crazy). He's got an OPS+ of 123 and wRC+ of 118. His defense has slid some, but he's still the second best infield glove we have. The Twins are getting what they paid for. This is what you get from most big name FA signings. Reference point: Manny Machado (significantly younger, and on a much longer and more expensive deal) has an OPS+ of 130 and wRC+ of 121. His defense is still really good as he's much younger and hasn't seen his athleticism decline, but offensively he's putting up quite similar numbers for even more money.

I'm interested to see what Larnach's approach looks like in 2022. He was a left-center gap hitter his whole amateur career so I was surprised to see him looking to pull so much at the major league level. Will he come back next year looking as pull happy as he did this year, or be back to using the left-center gap and being a little more hit over power? From all the reports I've read he spent all last year working on being able to pull the ball for power so I wonder if the early promotion got him locked into that swing without the chance to take the next step of having both his opposite field approach while being able to turn on pitches inside.

Teams definitely keep places open for FAs. They can add and remove guys from the 40-man as they want in the offseason, but removing them still makes the player go through waivers. And the crappy teams with open 40-man spots would much rather take a kid off waivers and be able to move them up and down next season between the minors and majors than have to take the kid in the Rule 5 and keep them on the major league roster all year. That doesn't necessarily mean they cut the Smeltzer's of the world immediately after the season. They "keep a spot open" by knowing they have someone like Smeltzer that they're willing to move on from if they find an upgrade. My list wasn't saying they should cut and add those specific players day 1 of the offseason, but those are the 35 (or 36) guys I'd have marked on my board as IN for next season and are only not on the 40-man at the Rule 5 deadline if I've found better players to replace them. The Twins need to have an idea of who in the org they are putting on the 40-man. They need to know which guys are expendable. Then they use that information to make decisions in free agency and trades. They don't just cut borderline 40-man guys immediately, but they see if they can move them for a low level lottery ticket that clears a 40-man spot and adds talent to the system. So I don't mean literally having open spots on the 40-man the whole offseason, but knowing which guys are coming and going and not putting 40 guys on the 40-man that they're not willing to cut when they know they need to sign free agents.

4 FA pitchers and maybe a SS depending on their feelings about having Polanco back there next year would be my offseason moves. So they need 4 or 5 40-man spots available for outside guys if they're not trying to basically hand half the pitching staff spots to rookies next year. The I'd protect are: Alcala Balazovic Colina Dobnak Duffey Duran Gant Jax Maeda Ober Rogers Strotman Garver Jeffers Rortvedt Arraez Donaldson Gordon Polanco Sano Buxton Celestino Kepler Kirilloff Larnach Refsnyder Miranda Winder Ryan Sands Lewis Moran Enlow Hamilton Vallimont Severino- If only bringing in 4 FAs and not 5 I think I counted right and that's 35 or 36 guys. It feels a little pitcher heavy to me, but that's where they need their options going into next year. I think Refsnyder is the only guy on the maybe list that I keep. Wouldn't be sad to see him go either. I don't think there's anyone on that list with a ceiling high enough to risk losing a more controllable player or stop them from bringing in a FA.

I guess I read this differently than some others here. I read this as "hey, these guys don't have great stuff, weren't top prospects, and weren't really expected to be MLB contributors, but look what they're doing. If these low level guys have been developed into useable arms, even if it's just a short stretch, we can look at that and have hope that the big name guys can come up and be the kind of arms we need." I didn't see anywhere in here that Ted suggests these 3 are the future of the Twins starting staff or are what we've all been hoping for in homegrown, top-of-the-rotation arms. He doesn't even suggest that this is what we should expect from the rest of the prospect arms and should be happy about it. My read on the article is simply that there's light at the end of the tunnel and reason for optimism. If the lesser thought of arms can produce at this level we can have reasonable expectations that 1 or 2 or 3 of the 10 bigger named guys can perform at the level we want/need.

The way some people on here talk about rookies, and Larnach's current struggles, they would've cut Trout, or traded him for a vet, after his rookie season. Not at all predicting Larnach is going to become Trout with the bat, or even be an above average MLB player (although I do think he'll be an above average bat for many years), but lets get a little perspective here. He's a rookie forced into MLB time earlier than they would've liked because of injuries to vets. And, as others have pointed out, the Twins WON THIS GAME. To each their own, but why choose to be negative when you could be positive?

I'm all for being active on the fringes of the 40 man, but you have to make the right choices with it. And ML data is more helpful in that than AA or AAA data. They've got a lot of guys on the fringes and will have to make a lot of decisions before and after the rule 5 deadline. I think/hope they'll have a good 50-60+ mil to spend this offseason. Much of which should/will go to the pitching staff. Going to need 40 man spots for those FAs. Moran looks great in the minors, but I'd prefer to see him actually succeed in the majors. Same with Garza and Garcia. I know I'm in the minority, but I see a pretty reasonable path to competitiveness in 2022. The whole offense, minus Simmons, is back and good enough to compete. And if they can spend 60m on FA arms in addition to an influx of some of these young guys I don't see why they couldn't build a competitive staff. If that's the case then you need to know if you can count on Moran to help the big league club next year for peanuts, or if that's another spot you need to spend real FA $ on. Same with Garza and Garcia and Burrows, etc. I agree Coulumbe and Minaya are easy DFAs, but there's a number of other guys on the edges that they need answers on. Or I'll be back on here next year having to read 1000 comments about how dumb they are that they let fringe 40 man pitcher X go and he's crushing it in Tampa while fringe 40 man pitcher Y is in St Paul getting shelled. So, sure, bring in the Garza's and Garcia's, but DFA Coulumbe and Minaya now if you already know you're going to do that. Get some of these guys ML innings and have a more informed data set for the offseason. And if Moran (or any other fringe guy) is going to struggle early, let them struggle in this lost year instead of struggling at the start of next year and tanking that season, too.

My hope is they're trying out the likes of Coulombe, Minaya, and Burrows now. Once they're convinced one way or the other on those guys being on the 40 man they'll try out a few more guys. At this point the rest of the season should be meant to decide who's earned 40 man spots for next year. They're in a situation where they have a ton of fringe 40 guys and need to pick the right ones to protect. It is interesting that they keep claiming fringe 40 man guys from other teams (Garza and Garcia types), though. I'd think testing Moran out and seeing if he should be protected would be more important than either of those guys. Moran will get taken in the Rule 5 if he isn't protected. Perfect candidate as a pen guy who you can stash even if he struggles.

Soularie has average to slightly below average speed. But he's a good athlete and knows how to use his limited speed well. He was an OFer in college, but last I heard the Twins were going to try turning him into a 2B. Anyone have any update on those plans?

I think the Twins and Brewers only playing 2 series a year is a glaring mistake. The series at the end of the month will be the most attended series of the season and the Twins are trash. Want to fill the stadium more frequently? Have teams in town with fans nearby that will attend. Now there's some hurdles to this as some teams (Seattle) are just not close to anyone. And MN is kind of in no mans land as far as easily building regional rivalries that would provide an influx of fans in the stadium each season, but that's why I think them seeing the Brewers come to town for 3 games a year is a mistake. The NFL is a national sport. Baseball is becoming more and more regional. And with 1 game a week there's more demand to get into your home stadium for one of the 8 home games a year in football. Baseball needs to be creative with creating demand to get into the stadium when there's 81 home games a year. They also need to create a better national following for teams outside of the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox, but that's a different discussion for a different day.

I don't trade any of these guys. Cot's Baseball Contracts have the Twins at about $68M of payroll next year with predicted arb raises. That's not very much. They can still run out these position players: C- Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt 1B- Kirilloff/Sano/Rooker 2B-Polanco/Arraez/Miranda/Gordon 3B-JD/Arraez/Miranda SS-(Polanco/Gordon/Lewis/Martin) LF-Larnach/Rooker CF-Buxton/Kepler RF-Kepler/Larnach/Rooker That's a playoff caliber setup. I'd like to see them bring in a SS, but would be ok with Polanco moving back there if they can really bolster the pitching. There's solid depth there, but not enough that I think you can survive trading away any of the 3 guys suggested in this article. Kepler never became the all-star we'd hoped, but he's an above average defender in right who can fill in in CF and is more than good enough to hit 6-9 on a playoff team. The pitching is the problem. Trading away your 1 reliable bullpen arm doesn't help the retooling situation. Cot's seems to have accurate information so I have no reason to doubt their $68M claim. If that's the case I'd say the Twins have (or at least should have) $70M to spend this offseason to fill in the pitching around Maeda and Rodgers. They need a lot of arms, but with the prospects coming and 70M they should be able to field a competitive staff. And pairing that with the offense they have they should be able to give the White Sox a scare next year. It's felt like we've had an abundance of offensive depth lately, but I don't think that's really the case anymore. There will be injuries. Every team faces them. Kirilloff is our 1B moving forward. He can fill in the corner OF spots, but then you have to fill his 1B role (Sano and Rooker are fighting for a DH role to me). I don't think we have an abundance anywhere to trade from. But I think they have the depth to be competitive and the payroll space to rebuild the staff quickly.

Story will be a free agent so we wouldn't have to trade anyone to get him. Just sign him to a deal.

There are more walls in LF than CF so if your goal is for him to avoid walls you should keep him in CF.

Totally fair, not saying I disagree that people can be emotional about big changes in their lives, but you don't often see professional athletes choking up during their exit press conferences after being traded. Like none of the guys in any other trade this season seemed to be so moved despite also having spent entire careers with 1 org in some cases (Bryant and Baez in Chicago for example). I responded to someone saying he "couldn't wait to get out of here" and I find that far less likely than him being willing to stay, but having contract demands above what the Twins have offered to this point. If he couldn't wait to leave he'd have been happy about the trade, not sad. And I don't think the contract numbers speak to whether or not he wanted to be here. As a fan I find 5/110 reasonable for the Twins, but if I were Berrios I wouldn't sign that deal. 5/118 (Wheeler's deal) is the absolute bottom of my market if I'm Berrios. Not signing for 5/110 doesn't mean I don't want to play for the Twins, it means I don't want to sign a deal I perceive to be below the bottom of my market. Maybe he's looking for 5/125 and would've signed that but the Twins never offered it. Maybe it'd have taken 5/150. None of that means he doesn't want to be here or "can't wait to get out of here." Just means the Twins didn't meet his number and he wants to see what he can get on the market. My earlier response was to the idea that Buxton and Berrios "can't wait to get out of here" and many players around the league having the Twins on their no trade lists because nobody wants to come here. That's all I was disputing as I find that notion to be based simply on a fans emotional response to a bad season and not based in any sort of observable information (like Donaldson, Cruz twice, Rich Hill, Andrelton Simmons, etc signing here).

I wouldn't be looking to replace guys year over year. The pipeline has to produce arms that the Twins have for 6 years (we'll see what the new CBA has to say about that). I don't think there's much of a difference between the guys who demand 5 years and the guys you can get for 1 or 2. Especially this year when there's a whole bunch of veteran arms on the market. But there's certainly other ways to do things and getting the right guy on a 5 year deal would be a win. I just don't think long term FA pitching contracts work out well for teams with the Twins budget constraints (whether their self inflicted constraints or not).

I've still not said they shouldn't sign FA pitching. They should sign FA pitching. I've said they should sign FA pitching. What I've said is I don't want them signing guys on long term deals this offseason. I'd prefer a Verlander type for 2 high priced years than one of these guys on a 5 year deal. I'm not punting on 2022, let alone 2023. I think they can contend for the division next year if they hit on the pitching FAs this offseason. But I don't want high priced vets on long term deals since the real chance for the Twins to compete moving forward relies on the system producing viable MLB arms. I'm hedging my bet, per se. Because if none of the arms hit over the next 2 years they aren't going to compete for the division during those 2 years, even if they bring in 2 of these guys, and then they'll be heading into 2024 with 2 high priced arms on the decline surrounded by a 2021 style staff when I'd prefer to take my shot for the next 2 years with FA vets on 2 year deals and the system providing arms for depth. My proposal is giving this FO 2 seasons to show they can rebuild the staff to where it was in 2019 and 2020. They need to sign FAs this offseason to do that. I think they should spend 50-60M on arms this offseason. But on only 1 and 2 year deals. If they fail over the next 2 years it means they haven't produced a "pitching pipeline" and it's time for them to go. If that's the case then I don't want my new FO saddled with multiple big contract veteran arms. I want them to have a clean slate to keep whichever young guys are producing and build the team how they want. So, yes, sign FA arms to try to compete the next 2 years. I just wouldn't give any of the 5 guys listed here long term deals.

I'm saying if none of the prospect arms hit over the next 2 years the team will be bad no matter what free agents we sign. We can't afford to fill a rotation and pen on big name, or even medium name, FA signings. The Twins can only compete if they produce their own pitching. So if all the arms in AA and AAA now fail they're not going to be good in 2024 anyways so why have 2 high priced FA arms with nothing else around them, especially if it's 2 of the guys in this list who have never been consistent #1 guys and will be on their decline by then? My response there was in response to somebody else's response to me saying I wouldn't sign guys for longer than 2 years during this offseason. I at no time have said they shouldn't sign FA pitchers. I said I wouldn't give any of them deals longer than 2 years, because if the Twins haven't developed any of their own arms by then the team isn't winning and you're blowing it all up anyways. 2 years is when Donaldson's money comes off the books and it feels like a time to have all your money available and not have veterans on the decline gobbling up a large chunk of payroll on a bad team when you'd be firing the FO and starting over. And if the prospects do hit then you want your money in 2024 to be going to extending the core of this team and bringing in other FAs who are performing then, and not to any of these guys in their decline.

I didn't say anything about cost saving. The odds that any of the 5 guys listed in this article are a legitimate ace in 2 years are low as well. None of them are legitimate aces now, and only Thor has ever shown the ability to be one. They've all had nice years, even #1 years, but not ace years. (An ace and a #1 pitcher are different things to me. Berrios maxes out as a #1, not an ace, for example) SWR and Balazovic both profile as true #1 or 2s. My point is that if the Twins miss on all their arms in the system right now over the next 2 years they're not winning anything anyways. And if that's the case I'd much rather have $150M to spend in 2024 to completely rebuild this thing than $100M to spend and 2 of these guys in their 30s pitching as likely #3 pitchers by then and having no talent around them. The Twins need to produce their own pitching. Basically every team does. Even the Dodgers are relying on Buehler being super cheap right now. And Urias. And May. And Gray. Now some teams can take some big shots like the Nats did with Stras, Scherzer, and Corbin, and that certainly worked out for them as they got a ring out of it. But now they have Corbin making 23, 24, 35 over the next 3 years, Strasburg as the Buxton of pitchers, Juan Soto, and nothing else. The 5 guys listed in this article are all very good pitchers and I'd take any one of them on the Twins. But not for 5/125. Let's say we sign 2 of them for that. Now we have 2 of these guys, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects. With no bullpen. Or 1 of them and then we have that guy, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects with a pretty solid bullpen (assuming the rest of their FA money went to bullpen guys). The Twins pitching staff is too broken for signing 1 or 2 of these guys to make them a real contender over the next 2 years. The prospects have to work out. If they don't they're screwed anyways. So why have a guy making $25M in 3 years when the team around him will be garbage and he'll be on the decline?

No, I can't say I've ever cried in either of those situations. But that's not really the point. Why would you have been surprised? How many professional athletes have you seen moved to tears after being traded? I can think of 1. Wilmer Flores. I'm sure there are more, but it's certainly not the majority. I'm not saying it's impossible that Berrios was emotional even though he didn't want to be in MN and couldn't wait to get out of here, but that's a far less likely situation than him having actually enjoyed his time with the Twins. That's what I was responding to. The idea that Buxton and Berrios can't/couldn't wait to get out of here. You know what professional athletes, especially really good ones, do when they can't wait to get out of a place? They demand trades and say "I can't wait to get out of this place." I'm not following your last paragraph. What would most fans consider reasonable?

Your argument is that Berrios faked tears after getting traded? To what gain? Wanting to hit the market isn't saying "I hate playing for the Twins and they're a trash organization." It's saying "I want the right to choose where I play and maximize my earning potential as well." Buxton not signing isn't him saying "I hate playing for the Twins and they're a trash organization." It's saying "we haven't found a contract that works for both of us yet so I haven't signed." Which, in fact, is exactly what he said. Your argument is Berrios faked tears simply to make fans happy (apparently) and that both Berrios and Buxton are liars. Polanco is a high caliber player and he signed here. Does he not want to win and secretly hates it here and wants out, but isn't saying it? Donaldson is a former MVP and had multiple suitors, but chose the Twins. Does he not want to win and secretly hates it here and wants out, but isn't saying it? Nelson Cruz not only signed here once, but twice! Did he go into his late 30s saying he didn't want the chance to win a ring and would sign with the Twins knowing he had no chance of winning here? How about Rich Hill? Did he sign here last year with the intention of playing out his last year or 2 for teams with no chance to win? Why did MadBum sign with the DBacks? They're even worse than the Twins this year and he's a high caliber player who could've gone back to the Giants who are a top team this year. Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado signed with the Padres when they were terrible.

No trade lists are a thing, yes. Not sure where you're getting your info that Berrios and Buxton "can't wait to get out of here," though. Considering Berrios teared up when talking about leaving the Twins and both have said from day 1 they're more than willing to sign a long term deal here. There's a gigantic difference between wanting to test the market, not being willing to sign for less than what you feel your max market value is, not agreeing on a deal yet, and not wanting to play somewhere. Neither of them have ever said they don't want to play here or wouldn't be willing to resign here. Ever.