chpettit19

Obviously a lot of factors at play over the next couple weeks as they make trade decisions. I think at the core it comes down to 2 things. How good you think you can reasonably be next year and what are the chances any of your "big 3" sign extensions before they hit the market. Can you compete for the division next year? Compete for the WS? Looking at 81-81? Worse? Close on previous extension talks or 10s of millions away in every negotiation? I'd expect the FO to have a number of different possible "routes" to take laid out. Different payroll options from the low to the high end of what ownership will realistically be willing to do next year and what possible FAs they could get at the different levels. With contingency ideas for missing out on their top 5 targets at each position they'd be going after. Then see what people are willing to give up for Berrios, Buxton, Rogers. How does that change each of your 2022 "routes?" If you can get a near MLB ready arm plus a flier or 2 for Berrios and you know he's not signing an extension before he hits the market how does that make your plans look? I don't see a real way for them to compete for a WS next year. I just don't see how they can bring in the arms needed to do it. Their hope for that relies almost entirely on the development of the arms in the system. I don't know near enough about those arms to have confidence on what any of them will look like in the majors for their careers, but I don't think it'd be reasonable for the Twins to think they can fill more than 1 rotation spot with an internal young arm for next year on a WS team. It's just too big of an ask with what we know right now. I also don't know how the extension talks with Berrios have gone. If I don't feel at least 80% confident I can sign him before the end of next year I'm seeing what he's worth. If I get a near MLB ready arm (Pearson and Woods Richardson have been names I've seen on multiple national outlets) I'd be very tempted to make that move. Certainly try to get more on top of them, but I'll take a current big name prospect over a comp pick 100 out of 100 times if I don't see a realistic way I can compete in the walk year of a Berrios type player.

I think the reason people question the idea of not trading Cruz is that he's on a 1 year deal. They can't trade him during the offseason cuz he's a free agent then and likely has far more suitors as many expect the DH to be implemented in the NL next year. We say there's no reason not to trade Cruz because the team isn't competing this year and if you can get anything at all for him you're better off. Nothing says they can't trade him in the next couple weeks and re-sign him this offseason. I don't think they would as they have far bigger needs (pitching), but he'll be a free agent and can sign with them if that's what he wants to do. It's also nice to send him to a contender late in his career and give him a shot at a ring this year.

Pearson or Woods Richardson plus a 7-12 ranked prospect and a couple fliers sounds like a deal Toronto may be willing to make and something the Twins could be interested in. Once players start doing well at AA and especially once they hit AAA and get tastes of the bigs, like the top Toronto arms, it gets really hard to pry them away from teams. Even for established big leaguers like Berrios and Rogers. Not saying the Twins shouldn't, or won't, set a sky-high asking price and need to be blown away to trade a Berrios, Buxton, or Rogers, but I would be absolutely shocked if they could get anything like Pearson AND Woods Richardson, or Dustin May, or Ryan Weathers+. Those years of control matter even for the big spenders. Not even the Dodgers or Yankees can afford to pay a whole team of 20m+/year guys. They need cheap talent, too, and build through promotion just like everyone else.

Where are those projected deals coming from? I can't imagine the Dodgers would trade May straight up for Berrios, let alone throw in 2 other good pieces. Weathers and Hassell (I assume that's the CFer you're talking about) seems a little more realistic, but still don't think they'd do more than Weathers and a low level flier, maybe. May and Weathers are already in the bigs doing well. May has performed better than Berrios the last 3 years, but has had injury problems and doesn't have the innings to really stake a claim to being a top arm in the game, but I can't imagine any reason the Dodgers would want to trade 4 years of May for 1.5 of Berrios.

Strikeouts have been pretty outrageous for sure. But he's also above average in BB% (59th percentile). And way above average in Barrel % (82nd percentile). Hard hit % is 55th percentile. Avg Exit Velo is 62%. The 2nd percentile K% is brutal, but he's certainly doing quite a bit to counterbalance that (113 OPS+ and 111 wRC+ would say he's been above average even with the brutal K numbers). If your standard for excitement for a rookie is immediate superstar I feel like you're going to live an awfully depressing life as a baseball fan. And for the record Justin Morneau was not good as a rookie. Larnach is outperforming him in every way beyond K% in only a 14 game difference in sample size. So that's a weird comp to make.

He very well may be breaking out. He made some changes to his swing before the year so it's possible he's unlocked something. Chances are just higher that Larnach has a future with the Twins than Refsnyder does so Larnach would be the one I base my decisions on before Refsnyder. It sure would be nice if Refsnyder is a useful piece for next year, too, though! Certainly not suggesting we give up on him or Garlick, just wouldn't be priorities in my decision making. The more guys we can get established the better as far as I'm concerned!

Totally with you on shattering confidence and all that. I've been on here many times pushing back on the idea the Twins, or any team, should just call a prospect up "to see what they have." That's not how prospects should be managed. I'd hope the Twins know Larnach well enough to know how he will/can handle the current struggles. He'd certainly see better controlled breaking stuff in AAA than he did in AA, but the AAA guys still don't control it like the guys in MLB and I don't know that seeing 5 well placed breaking balls a week in AAA is as useful as seeing 25 a week in the majors (numbers obviously completely made up with no reason for those specific numbers). I see big league success as a hitter as being able to adjust to what major league pitchers can do to you to get you out. Sure, he can go to the minors and work on closing holes in his swing in the cage, but if the pitchers can't consistently hit their spots (why most of them are in AAA and not the majors) then the in game reps aren't helping fix the struggle. I just see him as to the point in his career where the real test is being able to adjust to major league pitching and he has to face major league pitching to do that. Don't think it's a tragedy if they send him down, but my read (with far less info or baseball knowledge than the Twins have) is that facing ML pitching is what he needs. As for Refsnyder and Garlick, I think they're useful players, but they'd play no part in my decision making on Larnach. My Larnach decision would be based on what's best for him and those 2 would fight over whatever spots are left on the roster. With the season being lost I'm more concerned about getting the young guys who will be part of the core moving forward ready for the future. Not saying either of the 30ish year olds can't be on the team next year, but I view them as complimentary players. If one hits and forces their way into the lineup next year, great, but my plan can't be based around the hope that one of them turns into Joey Bats and starts mashing at 29 or 30. Odds just aren't far enough in their favor for that.

Agreed. I should've just said "other OFers come back" cuz it's more than just Cave, but he's the left handed bat that the FO or Rocco or whoever seems to really believe in. I don't know a single fan who would be sad to see him go, but teams have done crazier things than keep a guy like Cave in the majors and sending a rookie back to AAA. I just don't think Larnach has anything left to work on in AAA. I think his struggles need to be with the Twins and this is the pitching he needs to adjust to so really just saying I hope he stays in an everyday role at the ML level for the rest of 2021 no matter what results he may have (I tend to think he'll continue to have his ups and downs, but hopefully more ups than downs).

I think cherry picking 3 guys struggling while ignoring the rookies having great years (I know they were 3 big time prospects, although Pache is a glove first CFer and not expected to hit like AK) isn't what I've grown to expect from this site, but I'm happy to see the Twins duo succeeding. I'd like to know what is behind the decision to put Larnach in the 3 hole (he was hitting much better before a recent ice cold streak, granted) instead of Kirilloff. Kirilloff just appears to have the better ability to put the ball in play when needed to drive in the run at this point in their careers. Larnach is the better slugger right now I think, but wouldn't say he's the better overall hitter. Will be interesting to see if Rocco flips them and starts hitting AK in the 3 spot with Larnach in the 5 (or 7 if Kepler keeps mashing out of the break). Either way it's quite encouraging to see them both have early success. Larnach is at his first "adjust to the adjustments" point and it'll be really fun watching him try to make those adjustments in the second half. I hope the Twins aren't tempted to send him down when Cave comes back. Letting Larnach work through his struggles at the MLB level seems like the best outcome from this lost season. His career will be determined by how well he adjusts to the adjustments and getting that started now is a great opportunity for him.

That in reality is what happens to most players drafted. There, fixed it for you. Alex Kirilloff was drafted out of high school. So was Jose Berrios. So was Ben Rortvedt (from a WI high school even!). And Nick Gordon. Don't forget Byron Buxton. Kepler signed at 16 (not even out of high school yet!). Sano was also 16*. Arraez also signed as a high school aged kid. I feel like there was some kid out of the same area of New Jersey who got picked 26th overall by the Angels a few years back who came straight out of high school. What was his name again? Oh, Mike Trout. Seemed to work out for him. Yes, the vast majority of players drafted never make it to the bigs. That's the nature of the beast. I mean there are typically 40 rounds in the draft each year. There are top 10 picks who never reach the majors. Of course it is less and less likely they reach the majors as the draft slot gets higher and higher. Don't get the need/desire/whatever to point out that chances are these kids won't become stars, or even make the majors. That's true of most players. The Twins didn't go crazy and pick you and me last night. These are legit prospects with every chance in the world to make their dreams come true and both appear to be hard workers who are going to give it everything they have. Levi Michael was a college shortstop picked higher than Miller was (Michael went 30th) and he never made the majors. It's incredibly hard to make the major leagues. Why not just enjoy the hope for the future with these 2 kids?

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-2021-mlb-draft-preview Interesting read from today.

Think it depends on what you consider a "trading frenzy." I don't see any reason to hold onto any veterans on expiring deals. Even if all you get is some low level prospect with almost no chance of making it to the bigs that's still more than nothing when they leave at the end of the season. If they really want Cruz back next year and he really wants to be here they can still sign him again after the year. He'd actually probably appreciate a trade to a contender so he can get a shot at a ring. Same with Simmons, Happ, Pineda.

In 2018 (after the trade) Escobar had a 102 OPS+ with Arizona. He has since gone 110, 62, 106. He's been basically a league average hitter since the trade. He had a 117 wRC+ in 2018. Then 108, 56, 105. "Extremely well" is not how I'd describe his performance since that trade. Extremely average is how I'd describe it. If you can turn a league average player on an expiring deal into a top 100 global prospect you do it 100% of the time.

For sure. I even said that in the post. Not taking away anything from what he's doing and not predicting a collapse. But those numbers are certainly a red flag. At the end of the day his job is to stop the other team from scoring. He's doing that well now. But there's some pretty big signs that it may not be sustainable. I wish the kid nothing but the best and that trade is certainly not a gold star moment for the FO. And I'm well aware that a large segment of the baseball fan population aren't fans of statcast data, advanced stats, analytics, what-have-you, but its available data that gives a look into how he's performing that people can do with what they will. I omitted his 74th percentile K%, 81st BB%, 71st Whiff%, and 78th Chase Rate that explain why he's able to survive giving up hard contact. The job of front offices and scouts and coaches is to determine if he can maintain those good rates and/or improve the bad ones. I'd certainly rather have Ynoa in a Twins uniform right now than having traded him for 1 Garcia start, but that's hindsight and I wasn't overly upset with the trade at the time.

He was a solid get out of the DR that year for sure. Ranked in the 20th or so area for international signings that year. Not bad at all. But there's a ton of arms in the low levels that throw as hard as him. He was a lottery ticket and nothing more. It turned out well and kudos should be given to Atlanta for getting him to the bigs and having him perform well this year. No doubt about it. But it wasn't a bad trade at the time for the Twins. It made sense to give up a rookie ball pitcher lottery ticket for a Major leaguer. It's basically always a smart move to do that. I think we'd agree on that. And, I know you probably won't be a big fan of these numbers in general, but I'd pump my brakes on Ynoa. He's got a great WHIP and ERA this year for sure. Not taking anything away from him. But when he gets hit he gets smashed. 12th percentile for Avg Exit Velocity. 5th percentile for Hard Hit%. 24th for xERA. 20th for xBA. 14th for xSlg. 12th for Barrel%. Now he's getting results and I'm certainly not predicting he falls apart or taking anything away from what he's done this year, but he's walking a real tight rope with the way he gives up loud contact. For reference Jorge Alcala is 76th, 52nd, 34th, 46th, 15th, and 20th in those same categories. Obviously a difference between starter and reliever, but Ynoa's no certain thing even right now. My point on this article is there's a lot of context missing in Tom's breakdown. Trading expiring deal veterans on bad teams typically don't lead to big time returns. Sometimes you crush one like Tatis Jr for James Shields. Sometimes you get a Ynoa for Garcia deal. But those are few and far between. It's why people are proponents of trading prospects for proven major league talent. There is nothing from these previous deals that I would say lends itself to any sort of indicator on how this FO could do with trading someone like Berrios. You could draw upon the Pressly deal when considering a Rogers deal, but that's about the only comparison you can make and this article lacks a lot of context and using WAR to determine results here isn't a useful exercise in my opinion.

Didn't give anyone a pass or put blame on anyone. Simply said the title of the article and the use of WAR as the determining factor are misleading then provided reasons why I think that. Ynoa was a complete lottery ticket for the Braves in that trade. If the Twins bring back a rookie ball pitcher with a 5+ ERA for Pineda is your reaction going to be "oh man, we just got a guy who will be in the bigs in 2 years!"? Or are you going to be on here complaining about how the FO has no idea what they're doing and just got screwed by giving up a major leaguer for a rookie ball pitcher? I'm not giving blame or passes, I'm saying there's a lot of context missing here.

The Brewers have a top 3 that are all better than Berrios right now. They love their pitching over there, but Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff all start playoff games before Berrios in that rotation.

Think there needs to be some pretty big qualifiers on this. Major leaguer for major leaguer trades don't happen too often anymore. So going by major league WAR stats is going to make almost any trade within the first couple years look like a bad decision for the team getting prospects. James Shields had accumulated 2.0 bWAR with Chicago in 2017 and 2018 while Fernando Tatis Jr had accumulated 0 with San Diego. That's considered one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. Tom says "for now" or "there's a lot to be determined yet," but to title the article the way it's titled and use WAR as the determining factor on success of these trades is really misleading. If Duran turns into an ace, or even a #2 or 3 starter the Twins crushed that deal. That doesn't even account for Maciel and De La Trinidad. Pressley went to Houston and watched his breaking ball spin rate go through the roof while being shown on camera spraying his arm with illegal substances. Ynoa had a 5.26 ERA in rookie ball when he was dealt. Lance Lynn had been a malcontent and pretty awful at pitching during his time here and wasn't going to be brought back the next year (late signing who was cranky he didn't get a big deal). Pressley, Ynoa, and Lynn are the only 3 guys on this list who the Twins could have used since they've been gone. That's 1 rookie ball pitcher they traded away in a "win now" move that fans around here beg for constantly, 1 veteran who wasn't pitching well and wasn't going to come back the next year on an under .500 team. And 1 reliever who I wish we still had, but started cheating when he went to his new team. If Alcala was performing the way his pure stuff suggests he should that trade would already be a wash. They got exactly what they were looking for with Romo and added a top 20 prospect for Lewin Diaz. They got a top 5 system and top 100 global prospect back for an Escobar rental. They certainly haven't crushed any of the trades yet, but they've also only dealt veteran rentals, low level prospects, and a reliever. What do you expect to get out of those deals beyond what they did? Title and feel of this article don't seem to match the reality of these trades in my opinion.

Are the Twins good at driving in runs? That's the question here right? Does the RBI stat tell you if someone is good at driving in runs? That's what the whole debate is about. Many people (myself included) say it doesn't give you a good description of how good someone is at driving in runs because there are too many variables outside that player's control (ie how many opportunities they get with guys in scoring position). Many people believe it is still a good measure of player talent/ability to drive in runs. Minnesota Twins stats from this current season: 13th in baseball in RBIs at 363. Tied for 25th in baseball in BA/RISP at .229. So are the Twins good at driving in runs? RBIs say they're league average at it. BA/RISP says they're among the worst in the league. Which is it? The earlier post presented numbers about what the 2 teams hit today with men in scoring position. Your response was a sarcastic (I assume) comment about RBIs not mattering. Those are 2 different things and I just gave you the Twins season stats on the 2. So are they average at driving in runs like RBIs say they are, or are they terrible at it like BA/RISP says they are?

Not sure how RISP stats is proving your point here. That's BA/RISP which is what the majority of us who don't care about RBI say is the important stat. You're so amped up to complain about advancements in understanding of the game that you're using the new stat to prove the point that it's a better stat than the one you want to use. Weird tactic.

Donaldson has a 133 OPS+ (same as last year, and even higher than in Atl the year before). 125 wRC+ (slightly below where he was the last 2 years). His bat is why they'd trade for him, not his glove. He doesn't need to bounce back in terms of the production they'd be looking for, his contract is just too high so the Twins would have to eat a bunch of money most likely.

For more context Celestino and Wander Javier were both more highly regarded international prospects the year he was signed and subsequently traded. He's the anomaly of all anomalies when it comes to trades. Had never played a game in America before he was traded and turns into this. Nobody in the Padres' organization were predicting he'd become a top 10 player in the sport.

Oh I'm certainly not predicting they move him. No idea if that happens or not. Just saying his value is just as high as it would be in a normal year and, if the expectations are reasonable, they should be able to get a very good return for him and the concerns Tom presented shouldn't hinder that. I have no idea if they have reasonable expectations of a return or not. Although asking for sky high prices right now seems smart. If the Mets are the only team making a real attempt to trade for an impact player right now you have to ask for crazy high prices. Then adjust as the deadline gets closer and teams start feeling the heat more. It's why most deals don't get done until the 11th hour. The deadline itself motivates and forces teams to put their truly best offer out there. Hopefully Falvine has realistic expectations, and also don't settle for scraps simply to get something.

Berrios is likely the most in demand player on the market this season. His extra year of control at a very cheap-for-his-production rate makes him incredibly valuable on the trade block. With every team needing more arms I'd argue it puts the Twins in an even better place than usual (for him specifically). What team would rather have a AAA pitcher for this season than Berrios? I don't see anyone giving up multiple high end AAA, or AA, arms for him, but I'd certainly think any contender would be happy to part with one AAA, or AA, arm for him. How good that arm is would determine the rest of the package. Maybe you can get another high level bat, or maybe its a handful of lower level, "lottery ticket" type guys. But, when it comes to Berrios specifically, I think his value is just as high as any other year. The rest of the Twins' pieces are a different story and they're probably looking to bring back a bunch of low level fliers for them. But that's still the move to make in a lost season. Why not take on half a dozen toolsy, but raw, low A guys for players that won't be with the team next year anyways? Just adds to the chance of having another wave of prospects in 5 years. The Rays seem to do pretty well with constantly stocking their system with great athletes and arms by never losing a ML player for nothing.

36 homeruns tied him for 18th in baseball in homeruns in 2019. Feels a little extreme to say they're not very valuable. They don't make him a superstar on their own (which I've never seen anyone on these forums claim him to be), but they were, and are, certainly valuable. If your 6,7,8,9 hole hitter (where Kepler belongs in a good lineup) is hitting 36 jacks a year you're in very good position as an offense.