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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    That's a very intriguing idea right there.
  2. chpettit19
    It was about AFL roster rules. The Twins had no ability to send Royce as a SS because there is a position draft of sorts. Each AFL team is comprised of prospects from 5 ML teams. The player development directors from each of those 5 teams have a draft that determines which team gets to send players for which position. Otherwise you'd end up with teams with 1 catcher, 6 SSs, 5 CFers, 0 3B or whatever. So the SS spots were already taken and the only way the Twins could send Royce was to have him play other positions. Brujan isn't a SS anymore because Tampa has some kid named Wander playing there, but Tampa is full of guys who can play SS at the ML level, but won't because of a numbers crunch. Kind of the opposite of the Twins who have a ton of guys who can play the corners and very few up the middle. Lewis spent pretty much all of 2020 at the alternate site working at SS. The AFL position breakdown shouldn't be read into more than the Twins got the short end of the stick with the position draft.
  3. chpettit19
    Julien vs Sabato tells me they're different kinds of hitters. But Sabato had a 165 wRC+ at A+ and Julien's was 144. Julien's ISO was .247 and Sabato's was .360. I think Julien is a good hitter, too. Sabato is a power hitter first and foremost. Julien isn't. You ever watch JD or Cruz hit? They have plenty of times where they're nowhere near the ball and coming out of their shoes. It's part of the game now. Most hitters are educated guess hitters, and if they're wrong they miss by a lot. Julien had a BABIP of .451 in A ball. You want to make the argument that that's sustainable? Had a BABIP of .322 in A+. Sabato had BABIPS of .270 and .297. Even with the lower BABIP at A+ Sabato beat Julien by 21 points of wRC+. That's not a small margin. That's a ton. Rodriguez hit .214. So he's got the same problem as Sabato I guess? Don't see the point you're trying to make with him. He's number 1 on Nash's list. Walked a ton. Struck out at a crazy rate. But when he made contact he hit it hard. Sabato was in a league known to be tough on power and still came out as an above average (108 wRC+) hitter in that league even with his mighty struggles. Then moved up to a league that isn't so hard on power and walked a ton, struck out like crazy, but when he made contact he hit it hard. And had dominant numbers compared to the league as a whole. Sabato is also coming from college where he dominated (.332/.459/.698/1.158 career) as a freshman and sophomore against the best competition college baseball has to offer. Struggled out of the gate with the pro game. Found his footing and mashed bombs. Again, not predicting he's going to suddenly be Nelson Cruz, but even with his struggles he was slightly above average at A ball and absolutely dominant at A+. He's got a pretty solid track record of putting up monster numbers. And I can put you in contact with a number of current and former players who will tell you facing pitchers with better control and a better game plan as you make your way up makes it easier to hit if you're a certain type of hitter. Now maybe Sabato isn't that kind of thinking man's hitter, but his approach suggests he just may be. Not at all predicting he becomes a star anytime soon, but with all that data I think it's more than reasonable for Nash to suggest he's got a good chance at a breakout season and for me to agree.
  4. chpettit19
    I'm definitely in the minority here, but I agree with Sabato as a good breakout candidate. I think he'll get better as he moves up the levels and sees more pitchers who have control. The lower levels are full of guys with filthy stuff who have no idea where the ball is going. That puts an uber patient hitter like Sabato in a tough spot. His walk rates were incredibly encouraging and when he moved up and started facing pitchers with a little better control he started mashing. Am I predicting he's Nelson Cruz in 2 years? Absolutely not. But I think he has the potential to have a nice career as a DH in the bigs. Watching his HRs from last year, many of them were to center and right center. Patience and the ability to launch 420 foot shots to the opposite gap are really nice building blocks for 22 year old.
  5. chpettit19
    If the people paid to do what we all do for fun here get things wrong on a pretty regular basis I think we can all accept being wrong about a few things Twins, and baseball, related every now and then. To be honest I was part of the "this Donaldson deal hasn't worked out too well" crowd for much of last season until I started looking into things a little, and Aaron Gleeman wrote a couple articles breaking it down pretty well. But now you get to pay it forward and educate your friends on the greatness that is the Donaldson deal! (well great so far at least ?)
  6. chpettit19
    Marcus Stroman called and he'd like to disagree with you. He got what he was expected to in $ and went to a team in far worse shape than the Twins. You could actually argue he got less total money than expected since he took at 3 year deal instead of 5+ like the other guys in his age and talent range. So he got his expected AAV and went to a team in a full rebuild with very few MLB level players that likely won't compete at anytime during his current deal. They didn't overpay at all and he went there.
  7. chpettit19
    I don't disagree, just was saying this wasn't the plan. Their plan was never to go year to year signing a bunch of short term deals to build their staff (that was the part of your other comment I was replying to). The plan was Berrios at the top. Odo and Maeda types in the 2/3 spots. Pineda in the 3/4 spot. And the kids filling in the bottom and taking over the top spots as they solidified themselves. Then it all blew up starting with covid and moving into the injury-fest that was 2021. Now should the last 2 disaster seasons have lead them to change their plan and bring in a Ray and/or Gausman on 5 year deals? Maybe. Sounds like they at least discussed it with Ray and his people. Where the struggle for them comes in is now you're at a 40 man crunch situation. That's why I think Rodon on a short term, high AAV deal makes a ton of sense. They have to count on being able to develop top of the rotation arms. They aren't ever going to be able to afford buying topline FA pitching. They can't pay for decline years. That's what makes Rodon such a good fit. Just like they'd never be able to afford Buxton if it weren't for his injuries, they couldn't afford a Rodon if it weren't for his injuries limiting him to a short deal. But when push comes to shove they have to be able to develop their own top of the rotation arms. Otherwise they're signing guys to 5 year deals when they'll really only be good for 2 and then not only do they not have a top of the rotation arm, but they have expensive middle or back end guys. So either they need to develop guys to take the top spots from the expensive declining vets on long term deals or they need to develop guys to jump the cheaper vets on short term deals. But in the end they need to develop their own top end guys no matter who they sign. So the debate is about signing guys to long-term deals now knowing they'll likely be bad in a couple years or signing short term deals and being able to pivot and fill in as the next couple years play out and you see how good your system really is.
  8. chpettit19
    Actually, the stats available show the Twins have gotten very good production out of Donaldson for his deal. If you're upset with the Donaldson deal you shouldn't ask for the Twins to ever sign a player to a big deal. Donaldson was #40 in all of baseball in OPS+ last year. Ahead of JD Martinez, Jose Abreu, Jorge Polanco, Kris Bryant, Bo Bichette, Justin Turner, Nolan Arenado, Michael Brantley, Tim Anderson, Javier Baez, and tied with Xander Bogaerts, and Jose Altuve. Josh Donaldson has been a tremendous signing and the Twins have gotten everything they should've expected. Even with his defense starting to drop. And he played 135 games last year. He isn't the massive injury concern people suggest. That was more games than Tatis Jr. Only 6 less than Bryce Harper. 5 less than Kyle Tucker. 3 and 4 less than Castellanos and Stanton. 15 more than Starling Marte. 13 more than Mookie Betts. 9 and 11 less than Altuve and Bogaerts. 135 isn't a great number, but it's not like he played 75 games. He played well and played a solid number of games. This is what you get with big extensions and FA signings. Donaldson was the 3rd best 3B in the AL in OPS last year. He had 3.2 WAR which is generally valued at $25M while he was paid $21M. So, in summary, Donaldson has been a very good signing.
  9. chpettit19
    I don't think the plan is to have to sign 3 starters every offseason. I think 2 years ago was supposed to be the last season of that plan. Then last year was. Now this year is. The plan is to start producing their own arms. But then covid happened and delayed the arrivals. Then they all got hurt. But now they're all starting to need 40 man protection so they can't really delay anymore. The young arms are the plan. They're really what will make or break Falvine. I think that's why we hear them talking about being creative with piggy back starters, etc. I'd think Rodon on a 1 or 2 year deal would be good and it's a move I'd make. Nothing wrong with bringing him in and flipping him at this deadline, next offseason, or the next deadline if that's the best move then. But I'd bring him in and at least have an opening day starter worthy of starting opening day. But everything, in 2022 and beyond, comes down to whether or not they can start producing their own arms. If they can't it's all a lost cause.
  10. chpettit19
    It would be interesting to see how these boards (and Twins fans in general) react to Bryant during his Twins career were they to sign him. He's obviously younger than Donaldson was when he signed, but he's pretty much the same type of hitter and injury risk. Over Bryant's career (age 23-29 seasons) he has played 893 games (I added 9 games to his rookie season to 160 games cuz of the service time manipulation). Donaldson (age 29-35 seasons) has played 796 games. So in that time Donaldson has averaged 1 extra IL trip a season for the part of his career Bryant is just about to get paid for (ages 29-35). The main difference was really 2018 when Donaldson missed 100 games. During the 2015 through 2021 seasons (Bryant's career) Bryant had a 132 OPS+. Donaldson had a 140. Bryant had 28.7 WAR. Donaldson had 29. In 2021 Bryant had a 124 OPS+. Donaldson had a 127. Not saying I wouldn't sign him, but fans here, and those I talk to in the real world, have had a ton of complaints about Donaldson always being hurt (he played 10 fewer games than Bryant last year) and not being worth that contract. Bryant is going to get paid a similar amount and he hasn't even produced as well as Donaldson has during his career despite Donaldson being 6 years older than him. Not every fan has complained about Donaldson, but there have been plenty. Bryant would be an interesting signing.
  11. chpettit19
    I agree they need a ton of pitching, but that pitching can be gotten with prospects instead of our best player. That's really my point. And I certainly get that you don't want to move Polanco (who in their right mind would?). Trading the team's best player and hoping a prospect can step in isn't as preferable to me as trading the prospects and knowing I still have my best player. I'm also of the thought that Martin is our future LFer (maybe as early as 2022). I'm as big a prospect lover as you'll find, but I'd much prefer to trade a prospect than an established guy if I'm looking to bring in an established guy. Want to add to my "known" MLB performers, not make horizontal moves. If they brought in Story it'd be on a minimum 5 year deal I'd think. That means we'd have Polanco, Story, and Buxton locked up for at least 4 seasons. I'd do everything I could to run with that trio. With Arraez at 3B and Kirilloff at 1B you're looking at a really nice IF for 4 years (Donaldson would be my primary DH while playing 3B in a part time role to keep his bat in the lineup the next 2 years). More or less I don't see trading Polanco as being something that would make the team as a whole better. At the end of the day either plan comes down to young guys stepping up and becoming legit major leaguers. I'd just prefer the Twins give their young arms the chance to do that while you're more so advocating they let their young position players have the chance. Either way the system needs to produce some talent. And soon.
  12. chpettit19
    Sure, he'd be a very good trade piece, but I don't get why you bring in an All Star SS just to go and trade your All Star 2B. The Twins need pitching, no doubt about it, but I don't know why you'd trade established MLB players with years of control left to bring in an established MLB pitcher. Why wouldn't the move be to trade Lewis or Martin for MLB pitching? Bringing in Story and teaming him with Polanco and Buxton up the middle is a win now move. To me it doesn't make sense to bring in a piece like Story and then trade away your best player (Buxton is most talent player, but until he stays on the field he isn't the best player) even if it is to fill a pitching need. It just creates a new hole. I'm just confused as to why the move wouldn't be to package prospects to bring in someone from the Reds or As instead of moving Polanco in the hypothetical situation where they sign Story. (I also wouldn't move an above average SS glove like Story to 2B to make room for below average SS gloves in Martin and Lewis, but that's a different discussion)
  13. chpettit19
    Donaldson seems like a guy who's super dedicated to his craft and I don't expect a huge drop off over the next 2 years with the bat. Not saying he's going to OPS+ 125 or higher, but I don't expect him to suddenly be a 90 OPS+ guy. I think he splits his time between 3B and DH to save his legs an help him play 140+ games. I like him and his fire, knowledge, and work ethic on this roster. Trading him would simply be a money dump, and I'm not a fan of that until the Twins show they'd use the money anyways. They are like 40M below last year's payroll with very few players at their positions of need worthy of real money. Why would we trade Donaldson to free up money they won't spend anyways? If I were the FO and/or Baldelli Arraez would be my primary 3B in 2022. He'd get over half the games there with Donaldson DHing a bunch. Arraez can spell Polanco at 2B when he needs some days off, but I'd be done with the "move Arraez all over" plan. I like flexibility as much as the next guy, but when it comes to core players I think putting them at 1 spot and letting them get their routine is the best plan. And I think Arraez is a core guy with his OBP and BA abilities. Put him at 3B and let's watch him hit .330 in the 2 hole (I hit Buxton leadoff with Arraez behind him to allow Buck to steal some bases). I'm excited for, but not sold on, Miranda. He put up incredible numbers last year, and I think the Twins did him a disservice by not getting him his first big league taste during the hottest stretch of his life, but he hasn't exactly flown up prospect boards. What are the people who judge these things not seeing? His name not being all over Top 100 lists is interesting to me and I wonder what those around the industry see him as. You see someone do what he did at AA and AAA and you expect to see them on Top 20 lists, but he's not even on Top 100 lists. By no means am I saying he won't succeed and those list makers know everything, but it's interesting to see him not getting national recognition. He'd get playing time between 3B, 2B, and 1B for me next year. I don't get why people ever suggest he steps foot in the outfield. I know he played a couple games there last year, but it was only a couple for a reason. Remember the Sano to the outfield disaster? Lets keep Miranda on the dirt. He can fill in around the dirt and get plenty of ABs as the year goes on and injuries or performance dictate. None of the other prospects excite me in the least at this point. They could certainly breakout over the next few years, but right now they're all career minor leaguers in my eyes.
  14. chpettit19
    That's why I said it's a balance between how much his fielding hurts and how much better of a hitter he is when playing the field. If being a DH only makes him a 90 OPS+ hitter instead of a 110 OPS+ hitter does that outweigh his defense? A 110 OPS+ hitter isn't good enough to take up a roster spot only to DH. A 90 OPS+ hitter REALLY isn't good enough to take up a roster spot only to DH. So are you cutting him and eating his contract? Trading him? Wasting a roster spot on an unusable player? My point is that there's way more that goes into decisions than "DH Sano, Donaldson to first, Miranda at third." It's well documented that some guys simply can't DH. They don't have what it takes to sit around for 3+ hours and lock in for their 4 trips to the plate and perform night after night. If Sano is one of those people it doesn't just make him the automatic first baseman, but you can't just ignore it, either. Moving Donaldson to a position he hasn't played consistently in over a decade isn't just an automatic smooth transition. Is Sano's defense at first bad enough to nullify a 20 point swing in OPS+? 10 point swing? That's the question. The idea that every fielder is going to be a positive at their position isn't realistic. The question is how bad can you be before it outweighs the offense you provide. Same question in reverse with Simmons at SS. How bad can his hitting be before it nullifies the defense he provides?
  15. chpettit19
    Confused as to why they'd trade Polanco after bringing in Story. Why wouldn't they have 3 All Star worthy players up the middle of their defense for the next 4 years (when Polanco's deal expires)? Story has a number of good years at SS left.
  16. chpettit19
    Baseball reference has him at 18 big league innings at 1B. In the minors in 2008 he played 210 innings at 1B. 32 in 2009. And 14 combined in 2010 and 2011.
  17. chpettit19
    In a year I expect Sano to be gone and you can move Donaldson to fulltime DH then, but for this year I don't know why you'd move Donaldson when Miranda was playing 1B last year. According to baseball reference JD has started 1 game in his entire major league career (popped over there in the middle of a game a couple other times). Don't know why you'd move him for a guy that isn't an upgrade at 3B and who played 1B plenty just last year. And I'm not sure 1B is much of a wear and tear saver from 3B. He still has cut duties, has to run to the bag every ground ball, has to bounce off the bag on the pitch when holding a guy on first, has to trail runners to second on doubles, and still has to field grounders. Not sure where the big saving of his legs comes in with a shift across the diamond. I think we're likely to see Kirilloff and Miranda moved around a bit (when Miranda is in the bigs, no guarantee he's even in Minneapolis the whole year), and Sano and JD will split time at DH. Sano has been pretty clear in the past that he isn't comfortable as a DH and wants to play in the field to keep him in the rhythm of the game. It then comes down to balancing how much being in the field improves his hitting compared to how much his defense hurts the team. I'm guessing JD sees plenty of DH starts this year which would allow Arraez and Miranda to get plenty of 3B starts.
  18. chpettit19
    Why not put Miranda at 1B? Donaldson isn't the defender he used to be, but I'd think he's still better than Miranda.
  19. chpettit19
    It's hard to argue Sano cares much about base hits, but he was #30 in all of baseball in walk rate last year (among qualified hitters). He's a very patient hitter and takes a ton of walks.
  20. chpettit19
    Is this a moment we should mark in history? Somebody on the internet conceding a point to a stranger? Feels far to civil. You didn't even call me a name or anything!
  21. chpettit19
    Lucas Giolito throws his curve 3% of the time. Calling him a 4 pitch pitcher is a stretch. Frankie Montas, according to baseball savant, threw a fastball, changeup, and slider in 2022. 3 pitches. Charlie Morton threw his cutter 8% and change 5% in 2021. Technically 4 pitches, but he's a 2 pitch pitcher. Robbie Ray throws his curve and change combined a total of 9% of the time. Considering him a 4 pitch pitcher is overstating a lot. He's a 2 pitch pitcher. Chris Sale throws 3 pitches and he's considered drastically better than a #3. He's mostly a 2 pitch pitcher as well with his change used just 16% of the time. Baseball savant lists Berrios at 56% fastball, 30% curve, and only 13% on his change in 2021. He's almost a 2 pitch pitcher. I think you're drastically overstating pitch numbers. I mean if Robbie Ray throws 100 pitches in a game he's throwing his curve and change a combined 9 times. No hitter cares about those pitches.
  22. chpettit19
    Why can't Lewis be this year's Akil Baddoo, but without doing it for a different team?
  23. chpettit19
    If the $48M is around what Falvine are looking at having available still I hope they come out of the gates hot and sign Story and Rodon. Story for 5-6 years 20-23M (25M if needed), and Rodon for 1 or 2 years at 15-20M.
  24. chpettit19
    Social work has a cap on what they can pay because it's almost all government funded. It also has a terrible time getting, and keeping, employees of any skill level, let alone good ones, because of that pay cap. You can do quite a bit of complaining and not be fired in that industry actually. I know because I had to keep many malcontents when I ran group homes and an ILS branch of a social work company. The counties have a union and as a result get better pay and provide a much better product. Social work is actually a great argument for unions fighting for quite a bit and bettering the overall product. We all want the game to go on. We just disagree that the owners getting their way in order to just get a deal done makes the game better and keeps it going. The complaints most of us have about how the game is going, and the decrease in popularity, are almost all on the owners and their FOs and their gaming of the system. To me it just doesn't make sense that we'd just keep letting them do their thing when it's what's ruining the game.
  25. chpettit19
    The 3 big name SSs that have signed have signed with the Rangers and Tigers. The Twins are set up just as well to compete as either of those 2 teams. Much better, even with Seager and Semien, than the Rangers I'd argue. I don't see Story coming off a down year, with a draft pick attached to him, and coming from Colorado as going beyond what Baez got. So maybe he gets 22 or 23 a year instead of 20, and I'd still sign him to that and in what I've proposed the Twins could still afford it. Would Story put the Twins over the top in 2022? No. But would having an All Star CFer, SS, and 2B for the next 4 plus years put the Twins in a much better spot, and be better than what the Rockies were doing with Story before? 100%
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