chpettit19

I love this move. Nobody would argue that pitching isn't the biggest need, but I don't get why they wouldn't sure up the offense/defense with Story for the next 5 years and be in a spot to not really have to worry about much, if anything, offensively for the next 3 or 4 years. At that point you can put all efforts into the pitching knowing you're set on the offensive/defensive side. Buxton, Story, Polanco up the middle for the next handful of years would be a great place to start from with the young guys on the mound and corners coming up.

I'm with Matthew... the 2022 pick will be the #1 prospect in 2024. Or at least they better be. If you're picking at #8 and the majority of your prospects are supposed to be "graduating" to the majors in 2022 or 2023 the kid you pick in 2022 better be at the top of the list in 2024. But if I'm picking from these 3 I'll go Rodriguez with Petty as second and Miller a far 3rd. Miller doesn't have the loud tools to be considered for top prospect spots even though he'd probably be #1 of these 3 if I'm picking most likely to have a major league career right now.

We traded a prospect for Odo and an MLB ready prospect for Maeda. And that's just the 2 most obvious answers. Wade for Anderson was a prospect for a major leaguer. They've also made minor in season trades of prospects for major leaguers. Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa are brought up on this site weekly if not daily. So the idea that they're not willing to trade prospects for major league players is false. And, yes, major league players have proven themselves. The major league player being discussed here has proven he can't pitch a full major league season. He's literally never done it. Now he's going to be coming off TJ surgery and you seem to be suggesting that the assumption should be that for the first time in his entire career 2023 will be the year he finally pitches an entire season. A "true ace" pitches more than 100 innings in a season. So your thoughts confuse me.

I seem to remember a trade with them for a pitcher a few years back, too. Something like Jake Odorizzi for Jermaine Palacios. If I'm remembering correctly Mr. Palacios is back in the Twins system now. I think we could call that a win for the Twins ?‍♂️ If it's not clear I'm being sarcastic about not remembering the details of the trade. The Rays are great at what they do, but they are certainly not "winning" 100% of their trades. They win enough and develop better than just about anyone, but, I agree, the current Twins FO has "won" their trades with the Rays.

What do you expect out of Glasnow in 2023? Since 2018 he's thrown 111.2, 63, 57.1, and 88 total innings per season. Next year he will throw 0 innings. What kind of workload do you think he'll be ready for in 2023 and do you think he hits the ground running or will have to spend time knocking the rust off?

Way too early to give up on a kid with 1 year of professional experience. Not predicting he's Mark McGwire in 2 years, but let's not write him off after 1 year either. My bigger take away from these comments is people's takes on MLB draft strategy. I don't know of a single team who drafts "for need" in the MLB draft. It's basically universally "best player available" with some lean towards organizational depth charts when the evaluations are close enough. What team doesn't need pitching and SSs? You won't find a single ML organization that says they have enough pitching or SSs in their system. Not one. By this logic the first round of the MLB draft should just be teams picking the top rated SS or pitcher on their board. The Twins approach is to go after "difference making bats" in the first round if they feel someone available could be one (per Thad Levine). They believe it's easier to get pitchers and improve their velo, spin rates, command, etc. than it is to take a hitter and improve his hand eye coordination, pitch recognition, or sprint speed. So they go after offensive/athletic tools at the top of the draft. They take homerun swings in the attempt to find superstar offensive players as you find far less of them later in the draft than you do pitchers. I like the approach. And it's the approach most teams take (within reason when it comes to their evals of players). The draft is an absolute crapshoot. I mean people are angry the Twins took Lewis over Greene, but if you'd asked them at this time last year they'd have been praising the pick with Greene coming off Tommy John and Lewis coming off an AFL MVP award (with the covid year in there for both). There's a reason teams don't care about top 100 lists or make spur of the moment decisions on prospects. Development is far from a linear process. Draft for tools and stick out the ups and downs of a baseball career. That's all teams can do.

No thanks. Would I love an arm like that in the Twins rotation? Absolutely. But trading top prospects for 100 innings of Glasnow in 2 years doesn't sound like a win in any way to me. It's similar to the Buxton situation in that if it weren't for injuries Glasnow would never be in the Twins price range, but this FO is already super against long-term deals for pitchers. I don't see any chance they'd extend Glasnow with his injury risk. Add in that this FO is not likely to just let him rip in 2023 after coming off a lost season after 2 shortened seasons and I don't see any reason to think the Twins would be acquiring any more than 100 innings from him. If he spends 25 innings getting his feet under him again then you're looking at 75 innings of nasty Glasnow. Having someone like him would be a move to make for a playoff run. Coming off 63, 57.1, 88, and 0 inning pitched seasons do we really think Glasnow is going to throw an ace's workload in the regular season then have elite production still in the tank for a playoff run? I'm not betting any real future assets on that.

I'm biased because the lasting image I have of Nathan is that bomb to right center A Rod hit off him in the bottom of the 9th in the ALDS. Nathan was among the elite relievers of that time, but never the best. Santana was the best pitcher in baseball for years. In my eyes whenever you're the best in the game for more than a season you get a boost. This particular round of HOF voting pretty much ruined the process for me. Even if these 2 never made The Hall, they deserved far better than 1 and done. That's an embarrassment to the writers. Mixed with Selig being in The Hall and the hypocritical move of then not putting the players he allowed to juice in just destroyed any credibility the writers had left for me. I think it's time we start a new HOF and make it the baseball museum that actually tells the story of baseball.

The minors have a 60-day as well. They'll have to use an option year on him, but they'll put him on the 60-day after that and he'll accrue no service time this year while also not counting towards the 40-man until he comes off the 60-day. The only time someone in the minors isn't able to be taken off the 40-man while on the 60-day list is if they're on an optional assignment. Enlow won't be on an optional assignment because he has option years left so the Twins can option him to the minors, wait 20 days, put him on the 60-day, and take him off the 40-man. At least that's my understanding of the rules.

The 40-man is in an interesting spot. I count 22 pitchers and 16 hitters right now. I believe the rule is still that you can carry no more than 13 pitchers so the Twins need at least 13 hitters on the roster. So right now they'd only have 3 40-man hitters starting in the minors. That feels awfully unbalanced. Especially because I see 4 guys likely to be in AAA on opening day (Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Celestino). If I'm Garza, Jax, or Strotman I'm certainly not feeling great about my spot on the 40-man yet. Enlow and Maeda go on the 60-day asap so that frees 2 more spots. So they really have 4 open spots. I'd guess 1 is being held for a SS (which then pushes the 4 I listed before to St Paul). The other three really going to pitchers to where they have 25 pitchers and 17 hitters? Feels like they've painted themselves into a tough 40-man spot and are going to be losing some guys this year. And I definitely wouldn't be trading a hitter for a pitcher at this point and pushing those numbers to 16 hitters and 26 pitchers. A tough start injuries wise to the season leads them to losing a bunch of guys to waivers/trades. The 40-man situation isn't great and has me even further into the "youth movement" group. Can't risk losing controllable young talent for a long shot at contention in '22.

I think I'd wait and see how things go this year. They have a ton of arms hitting the 40-man roster and some of them will have to move to the pen. There's enough question about his ability to keep being dominant and his injury that I wouldn't extend him before the year. Unless, of course, he's willing to sign for something crazy low, but being a player rep makes me think that won't happen as the union would be really mad with an elite reliever not going after elite money. His being lefty is certainly a point in his favor as they have very few young lefty arms, but I still wait. Take our chances with him on the open market after the year. I don't want to get stuck with 10+ mil a year on the books for a guy who never recovers from this finger thing. If he's back and shredding lineups I approach him midseason if he's willing to talk then or see what happens on the market after the year.

I'm not a fan of trading for relievers during the offseason. Midseason is a different story as you can see who's having a good year and who isn't. Relievers are so volatile that giving up any sort of prospect capital for them during the offseason doesn't make much sense to me (see Wade for Anderson). And with a number of relievers on the open market as good or better than the trio listed here I'd much rather the Twins sign some guys if they're intent on bringing in outside arms for the pen still. They're running awfully low on 40-man spots, too (and we still need a SS). I'm guessing we'll see a whole bunch of young arms in 2022 as somebody would be getting fired if they move more young guys for vets and the young guys outperform on their new teams. Time to see what's been developed.

Depth is absolutely supposed to be impressive when the discussion is whether or not to trade a proven major league player. Which is the discussion here. If the depth isn't impressive and can't reasonably be expected to replace that player you have no depth in regards to the discussion at hand. The Twins don't have Arraez replacing depth. That's the point. The list you provided shows how little depth the Twins have at any position and this idea that they're so deep offensively that they should be trading offense for pitching isn't based in reality. That's the discussion. They have no proven depth at any position. Best argument is Jeffers and Garver, but Jeffers is far from proven and Garver is far from a sure thing to stay healthy. Plus you need 2 catchers. Now there's always risks to be taken and that changes the discussion a little, but not drastically in this case. Martin looks like Arraez at the plate with much more athleticism. I have very high hopes for him, but he's not even close to proven. And I'd prefer him in LF over the IF (I'm not a "you need to hit with power to play here" person so I'm sure many will disagree with that stance). At some point some chances need to be taken on young guys replacing established major leaguers. It's usually a financial situation that leads to that. The Twins aren't in that spot with Arraez. The question here is really about putting your faith in the young pitchers to perform or the young hitters. Either you need a young hitter to replace Arraez or you need a young pitcher to fill a rotation spot. With the Twins having drastically more near MLB ready arms than bats I'd prefer they see what they have in the arms.

I'm not against going year to year with Arraez. I don't know that pre/mid-arbitration extensions that don't really go into much FA years are things I'd be concerned about trading shortly after signing. Arraez is "under contract" for another 3 years with the Twins whether they sign him to anything or not due to the arbitration process. I don't see that there's a great difference in him being in arb or him having a 4 year deal. Unless he's taking what's perceived to be a very team friendly deal. But also don't think its crazy to not want to trade someone shortly after any extension. That's a more than fair stance. Overall, I don't see any reason to trade Arraez right now. The Twins have plenty of names for 2B, but only 1 of them is currently better than Arraez and only Polanco and Arraez are proven ML hitters. I'm not a fan of trading established guys, especially with 3 years of control left, because you have prospects you hope can be as good as them. Until Miranda, et al prove they can hit ML pitching the Twins don't have depth at 2B. They have Polanco and Arraez. With injuries and rest days that combination is a minimum need, not surplus. I'm ok trading Arraez, or anyone, for the right return. The idea that we should be shopping Arraez because we have "plenty of middle infielders" doesn't make any sense to me.

Plenty of middle infielders? Who? At this point we have an All Star 2B and no starting SS. We have Gordon who can play 2B and SS in a pinch. We have Arraez who can play 2B, but not SS. That covers the extent of ML talent for the middle infield. 2 starting caliber 2Bs and a utility guy who can play 2B isn't what I'd consider "plenty" of middle infielders.

Does anybody know what his knee problems actually are? That'd be a vital piece of information to me if I'm running the Twins. Does he have a chronic, degenerative situation or has he just been pushing through an injury that could be completely healed and he'd be good moving forward with no more risk than the average player? I feel like I heard it was a degenerative thing, but can't remember for sure. If it's a chronic, degenerative thing I have my medical people tell me how many good years he likely has and extend him if they're relatively sure he can play out that next 4 or 5 years without a real plummet. Then am open to trades if that makes sense down the road. Arraez won't demand a huge salary. There's very little relative risk to extending him beyond his knee problems. Even if you're not buying out many FA years you can extend him for 4 or 5 years even and just lock in expenses. It's helpful to know where your payroll is without worrying about arbitration. Then you can move him later if it makes sense. The talk of depth and him not having a spot on the field/in the lineup is premature to me. If all the guys we're hoping on reach their potential then move guys at that point. Don't be afraid of extending a proven ML player because you might have some prospects ready in the future. Hoard all the talent you can and move guys once you have too many proven guys for ABs. Especially the way the Twins rotate guys. It's not a "starting 9 and 4 bench guys" situation in MN anymore. It's more like a starting 5 and 8 rotation guys now.

There's a lot of names, but that list is not impressive to me. Garver- Can't stay healthy and is on the wrong side of 30 already playing the most demanding position physically. Stud when he's healthy, though. Jeffers- Are we sure he can hit? Nobody can claim he's proved it yet. Rortvedt- Are we sure he can hit above .180 even? Kirilloff- Are we sure he'll suddenly get over his almost yearly wrist injuries? Very likely stud if he can stay healthy. Sano- Is most likely gone after this year. Rooker- We know he can't field, are we sure he can hit? Certainly hasn't proved he can hit. Larnach- Won't kill you in the field like Rooker, but isn't very good. We sure he's the first month Larnach and not the last 3 months Larnach? Polanco- Stud. Arraez- Hits/OB machine we know isn't above average at 3 positions, but isn't embarassing. Gordon- Brings much needed speed and athleticism. Can he hit? Certainly not an everyday guy. Miranda- We sure his 1 year sample is the real deal or the rest of his career when he wasn't even good enough to get picked in the rule 5? I have faith, but there's been better prospects who have failed. Donaldson- Not getting any younger. Will spend more and more time at DH for next 2 years if he doesn't get traded before then. Palacios- Why do we think he's a major leaguer? If that's what anyone thinks he'll be taken in the rule 5 and won't be here anyways. Celestino- Looks like a very good option as future 4th OFer. Cave- Really? Cave's part of the reason we can afford to move Arraez? He's not even on the 40-man and no major league team claimed him. Buxton- Can't stay healthy, but is a stud when he is healthy. Kepler- Big time defender, some time hitter. I don't see the depth here. Arraez is a proven ML hitter. He's 1 of 6 or 7 on your list. That's not even a full starting lineup! I love prospects and have high hopes for many of the young guys we have, but we need to quit acting like Jeffers, Rortvedt, Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, Miranda, and Celestino are any sort of sure things. Kirilloff looks every part the future star, but wrist injuries are killers for hitters. The rest of them have had almost no major league success at all let alone sustained success. So yes, we have a lot of names. But, no, we don't have great depth.

Teams know him. There's no secrets to a player who's been in the league for 2 years. They have his spray chart, exit velos, and every tendency you can think of plus 20 you can't. And he still gets hits. The OP has his spray chart. I'm confused as to how someone can look at that chart and say good defenses can limit his hits. He literally has hits from line to line. And lots of them. Teams have been playing their outfield in and infield back on him his entire career and he still finds the holes. I won't be upset if they get a good return (people mention one of the young Marlins pitchers as a possible return and I'd be good with that) on a trade for Arraez, but suggesting he's suddenly going to stop hitting because defenses will "get to know him" isn't based on the reality of the situation. The only thing likely to stop Arraez from hitting in the next handful of years is his knees. And that may be reason enough to trade him now, but you don't get figured out and stopped by defensive positioning when you have a spray chart like his.

Precisely. You were much more concise in your statement than I was, but that's exactly where I'm at. Have lots of hope, and a bunch of faith, in these young guys succeeding, but lets see it before we proclaim a hitter of Arraez's caliber is simply surplus.

I don't see the depth so many people see and agree trading Arraez isn't a necessity and shouldn't be done simply because there's a "surplus." As the OP states injuries will happen. They do every year for every team. Going into a season with your starting 9 and saying everyone beyond that is surplus doesn't make sense to me. And as of today Arraez is in the opening day starting 9 without a question. Who is starting in LF for this team come opening day? It's not going to be Larnach, he's starting in AAA unless there's injuries in ST. Are they still ok with Kirilloff in the OF with Sano at 1B most of the time? I think they'd prefer Kirilloff at 1B where the defense is much better, but in order to get JD DH ABs they'll need to be willing to play Kirilloff in the OF still. I'd guess Kirilloff and Arraez are the primary LFers as of today. Did Miranda have an incredible season last year? Yes. In the minors. I'm excited to see what he can bring to the Twins, but I'm not building my team assuming he's going to be as good as Arraez next year, or ever. I'm a "prospect lover" and want the Twins to build through the system, but that doesn't mean you open holes in the lineup for prospects before they've shown they can do things. We traded Hicks and Span to clear a place for Buxton and he was awful for years to start. JD has 2 years left. He's not exactly a long-term solution. What happens if Miranda had a 1 year blip season at AA and AAA and isn't seamlessly stepping in at 3B for the next 6 or 7 years? We've traded Arraez and now have no 3B. Sano is likely gone after this year. Kirilloff moves to 1B fulltime. Kirilloff has wrist issues. Are they done or is he cursed to a career of wrist problems and never becomes the All Star he's capable of being? Who's DHing after Sano leaves? I don't see surplus anywhere in the Twins organization. People pushed and pushed for OFer trades before last year because of the "surplus" of OFers in the system. Now the Twins have Buxton and Kepler and ??????. Would people prefer Rooker in LF over Arraez? I just don't see this surplus. The Twins have a really nice starting 8 (need a SS), but beyond that they have nothing but question marks and unproven players. If you get a great deal for a young, ML starter with years of control left by all means trade Arraez. But don't be shopping him, or anyone, at this point. The offense is good, but certainly not overly deep.

I think the 4th option not listed here is my favorite option...hope he hits his usual hot streak as temps start to rise and if the team isn't in contention trade him to one of many teams who would love to have a hot hitting Sano for their playoff push. If he comes in lighter and better and has a great season I could be open to keeping him on his option, but I don't think extending him would make much sense. I'd also be good with not exercising his option and just letting him walk and spending that 14 mil elsewhere. Sano is a good hitter. His numbers are basically always above average. His problem is that he's incredible streaky. I don't think 14 mil would be outrageous for him next year. If he produces 2 WAR he's earned that amount. I definitely don't trade him before the season, but everything is on the table once things get rolling.

The only risk I see with the Buxton deal is that the Pohlads make the FO treat the incentives as the base and they lower total payroll to ensure if he hits his incentives they never go over their payroll/revenue predictions. Other than that I agree with those saying he's no more at risk to a career ending injury than any other player. Certainly seems to find ways to make his way to the IL a couple times a year, but he always comes back. And he's shown he'll adjust to attempt to lower his injury risk. And the comparison to Hunter is ok, but not great. Hunter moved to the corner cuz he couldn't run anymore. But he was never a burner to start. Buxton has Hunter's reads, but an extra gear of speed. Even if Buxton loses 5 steps he's still got those reads and he's then a Hunter, or Cain, type CFer who's still very good, but not "best defender in the game" good. This deal was perfect.

I guess my question to all of this is would people be happy, and say the FO was successful, if they come out of the lockout and sign Pineda and Duffy? Those are two mid-tier pitchers still available. Is the complaint simply that they didn't do this before the lockout? If 2 mid-tier arms is all people are wanting I don't get why I've read hundreds of "fire Falvine!" or "the FO failed!" or similar posts over the last month. 2 mid-tier arms are easily found still. Is this just a "they didn't do it fast enough" complaint?

I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see both Canterino and Winder make multiple trips back and forth between the big club and the minors this year. I think there's a real strong chance the Twins use a number of rookies as piggy-back starters throughout the year to both limit their innings and service time (who knows what the service time rules will be in the new CBA, though). I think they shuttle a number of them back and forth until some of them (hopefully) start to establish themselves and can claim a few more innings. 40-man management will be really interesting to watch this year.

There's always arms available if you're willing to pay. But to me this all comes down to the prospects developing. If they don't develop any arms in 22 then the situation is the same in 23 and Montas still isn't enough to help anything (I don't think failed development in 22 would lead the FO to suddenly start spending on FA arms). I think they need to take 22 and see what arms develop and are legit ML talents. Don't risk trading away the 1 or 2 guys who turn out and being stuck with 1 veteran guy on a 1 year deal. If they can't develop pitching they're screwed no matter what. I say keep the kids and see what you have in them and fill in around that for 23.