chpettit19

I think a combination of set years of control from day of signing or drafting and additional spots of protection could be interesting. As the league streamlines the minor league systems maybe make the protection of the 40 man roster be a 52 man roster. That covers your ML and AAA team. So you have to be ready to have your best prospects in AAA after a set number of years after acquisition. 16-18 year old signees/draftees get 10 years total control, protected on 52 man after 5 years 19 or 20 year old signees/draftees get 8 years total control, protected on 52 man after 4 years 21+ year old signees/draftees get 7 years total control, protected on 52 man after 3 years So you're hitting free agency at 26-28 years old, but have to be protected and there's no reason not to have them in the bigs if they're ready since you're gaining no extra years of control, but able to do the up and down dance between the majors and minors at 21 to 24ish years old. Don't necessarily have to have your guys in AAA if they're on the 52 man roster, but felt like a good number as it covers 2 roster sizes. Years and roster size may need tweaking, but that's my general idea.

Who is easily moved back to SS with Arraez moving to second. So, yes, you can shuffle lineups when an injury happens. Like the Phillies would move Segura back to short if Gregorius goes down. But the Phillies can't replace Segura at 2B with someone with a legit chance to be in the running for a batting title. The Twins have a better ability to handle an injury to their starting SS than almost every team in MLB. It is unreasonable to expect them to be able to replace Simmons, Polanco, and Lewis with another MLB starting quality SS. No team has that ability. None. Not a single one. Why would any starting quality SS sign on to be the 4th (or 3rd if you don't count Lewis as being ready yet) SS in line in any organization?

Dodgers currently list Zach McKinstry as their 3rd string SS. Gavin Lux is no longer a SS if that was your thought. Yankees currently list Thairo Estrada as their 3rd string SS. They don't even want their 1st string SS playing SS if they could help it. Mets currently list Jonathan Villar as their 3rd string SS. They traded away their top 2 guys to get Lindor. Villar is a utility guy. Their 2nd string SS is Luis Guillorme. The Astros don't even list a backup let alone a 3rd string SS. The Blue Jays list Joe Panik as their 3rd string SS. The Red Sox list Yairo Munoz as their 3rd string SS. The Phillies list Scott Kingery as their 3rd string SS. CJ Chatham 4th. Those are the players you're considering "first-division" short stops? Cuz that's what was asked of you. There isn't anyone in there you'd want starting for a playoff team. If Simmons goes down for more than 15 days Polanco slides back to short and Arraez slides back in to every day 2B innings. I'm completely fine with that. Now if there's more injuries beyond that things get shaky. Is Gordon ready? Can Lin, Riddle, or Romine handle everyday duties for a month? I don't want to find out, but those guys aren't drastically worse than any other 3rd string SS. I think you drastically overestimate what other teams are capable of doing if their #1 SS goes down for more than a 15 day stint. There's very few teams that can replace them with a former all star and slide a batting title hopeful into the lineup everyday. Multiple SS injuries hurt any team a great deal. The Twins had a luxury many don't by having a near major league ready top SS prospect. I mean none of the teams you listed even have near MLB ready, big time SS prospects beyond Downs in Boston. Unless you think Martin is stepping in for the Blue Jays in his first professional season and helping them to the playoffs. Maybe you could've argued for the Rays if you think Brujan is able to play SS and he'd be 3rd behind Adames and Franco. Think that's your best argument here.

Every prospect is a bust possibility until they establish themselves in the bigs. No doubt. Just saying that his inability to stick at short shouldn't be a huge concern. The bigger concern is definitely whether or not he figures out how to be a consistent hitter. Him taking over CF for Buxton isn't a huge failure and I think it's pretty universally accepted that he could step in and be a plus defender in CF today. Twins are definitely short on SS prospects, though. So ideally he can stick there, but if he hits I don't think we need to be too concerned about him moving positions.

Alex Bregman was drafted #2 overall as a SS and moved to 3B. Should the Astros have traded him as a prospect? Brendan Rodgers was drafted #3 as a SS and the Rockies aren't convinced he can stay there. Gleyber Torres was signed as a SS and hasn't proven he can stick there (been much better as a 2B). Ozzie Albies was signed as a SS and had to move to 2B. Gavin Lux was drafted as a SS and had to move to 2B. Carter Kieboom was drafted as a SS and had to move to 3B. Trea Turner had to move to CF for a while as he figured out SS and still isn't great at SS now. Manny Machado was drafted as a SS and had to move to 3B. Even got a second shot at SS and moved back to 3B. Which one of those guys would you say their team should have traded as a prospect because they were drafted in the 1st round or signed for big money, but couldn't stick at SS? Brendan Rodgers is the only questionable one, but that's because he's struggled to hit at the ML level in a SSS. Otherwise I think you'd be happy with any of those "failed" SS.

A lot of mention of Kirilloff starting a playoff game proving he should be the opening day LFer. Seem to be completely ignoring the fact that there were multiple injuries on that team that lead to him getting the call. If Buxton were healthy Kirilloff never comes over from St Paul. If Rooker is healthy, and still hitting, Kirilloff never comes over from St Paul. People make it sound like Kirilloff got the start over a number of current players and thus the team thought he was better. He started over Cave so you can make that argument there, but he didn't start over Buxton, Rooker, or Arraez. Buxton doesn't matter in this conversation, but Rooker and Arraez do. Shoot, even Marwan would've started over him if Donaldson was healthy. As for the new CBA changing service time rules (I really hope it does), there is no way the league gives them a change in those rules but doesn't demand current players be grandfathered in. They aren't simply going to give up those cost controlled years. In fact, agents of big time prospects who are probably a year or 2 away are probably crossing their fingers they don't get called up this year so they aren't stuck in the old system. As fans we always want the best players we can get on our team for every game every year. As players and coaches they are always looking to win as many games as possible every year, but even Rocco looks to the future somewhat by giving guys as much rest as he does. But as FO personnel they need to keep an eye on the future. If you think a prospect is a utility guy/backup you call them up when you need them with no concern to service time. If you think they're a league average everyday guy you call them up without much concern to service time. If you think they're a top 100 MLB player with superstar upside that can hit in the heart of a championship order you have to be concerned with service time. Even the Dodgers and Yankees play these games. It's annoying, and as fans we shouldn't like it. But it's smart and the way good teams run their organizations.

Would be interesting to see what taking corner OF out of the data set requirements does. There's already talk of him taking over at 1B for Sano, let alone his being able to DH as he ages. Would also be interesting to see the number of players who fit the criteria before their age 29 season. What's the drop off? Are there fifty 28 year old lefty hitting corner OFers OPS+ing 115+ and it drops to a handful at 29, or is it going from 10 guys to 4? And how much is the drop in their OPS+? Are the 28 year olds who fall to under 115 OPS+ at 29 typically 117 OPS+ players who drop to 114, or are we talking guys going from 140 to 100? Lots of questions need to be looked at in that data set. I want the best players on the field for the Twins as often as possible, but it would be irresponsible team building to not sacrifice a few weeks this year for his entire age 29 season. Even if he's declining then, as you seem to suggest he will be, you still ensure he spends his entire prime with the team and let him walk once you suggest he is simply league average-ish, or worse. MMMordabito also brought up the fact of Boras being his agent. There is no extending Boras clients before they reach free agency. So, unless you think he'll change his representation before he hits free agency, thinking Boras will suddenly do something he has refused to do with any of his other clients seems like bad team management as well. The Tatis comparison just doesn't hold up there. So, while I agree it'd be ideal to have him up on opening day if he's the best player available, none of the arguments made here sway me on sacrificing his age 29 season for 18 days, or whatever it is, of his 2021 season.

What "proven" infield option wants to sign on for the role that's available on this roster? I know there is talk of Arraez playing LF some this year (and he may start there opening day), but if a combination of Larnach, Kirilloff, Rooker are mashing at AAA and/or the majors you're not putting him out there. Marwin got starter PAs by covering 5 positions, Arraez is going to cover 3 primarily as there just aren't enough PAs to go around in the OF. I'm not a "let the kids play and see what they can do" person, but there are 40 man concerns coming real quick with the position players. There aren't "proven" infield options who are going to sign up to be the backup to the backup. The guys left want to sign with Baltimore or Detroit or some other bottom feeding team where they may actually get some PAs to try to earn a contract next year. It's not about the $, it's about the opportunity and roster crunch. I'd be willing to bet Gordon isn't on this 40 man roster come 2022 so maybe he's someone you dump for a veteran end of the bench "proven" guy, but what guy wants to backup Arraez who's backing up the starters? Anyone willing to sign on to that major league role is likely willing to take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, but again, the Twins aren't the team to take that route with either. They have too much competition for someone fighting for their career. I'd love to have a Kike or Tommy La Stella or other veteran guy, but the Twins are in a weird spot and there just aren't enough PAs to go around to the guys who will likely deserve PAs. La Tortuga will be the 26th man and fill in here and there, once or twice a week, and provide C and corner depth. Arraez backs up the infield. As you mentioned the OF is full of depth. If I'm a FA infielder this offseason I'm not looking at the Twins and saying I want to sign here. They're one of my last options as there simply isn't an easy track to playing time.

If Donaldson, Simmons, or Polanco go down we see Arraez step into a true everyday role and Blankenhorn or Gordon come up depending on how they're playing and who got hurt. If Sano goes down we see Rooker, Kirilloff, or Larnach (whoever isn't already up) come up and rotate through corner OF and 1B. This year is different than the last couple with 4 guys legitimately good enough to play everyday at 2B, 3B, or SS and 6 guys ready, or soon to be, for the OF (Buxton, Kepler, Cave, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker) with 3 of them able to fill in at 1B for Sano. I think Adrianza isn't back because he wouldn't be getting the already limited ABs he was getting the last couple years. You're not going to play any other IF outside Polanco, Donaldson, Simmons, or Arraez at 2B, 3B or SS, and you're not going to play some other utitlity guy at 1B over Sano, Kirilloff, or Rooker. The 26th guy on the roster this year won't be seeing the field much unless there's some pretty big injury or underperformance issues. Which there's always the risk of, but signing legit guys to be your 26th man when they're only looking at 150 random PAs is hard to do. Not many FAs out there willing to sign on for that role with young guys from the minors who would likely jump them even with an injury.

In 2019 the best offenses got about 7000 PAs for the year (only Houston had more than that at 7078). That's 778 PAs per spot in the lineup. For ease of numbers let's do 775 PAs per position. DH: Cruz 600 C: Garver 375, Jeffers 375 1B: Sano 600 2B: Polanco 600 3B: Donaldson 600 SS: Simmons 600 LF: Kiriloff 600 CF: Buxton 600 RF: Kepler 600 That's a reasonable estimate of what the Twins can expect on average (Buxton clearly high, but others low and am just trying to make it easy on the math). So of the 7000 PAs those 10 guys are covering all but 1450 PAs. I have to assume they're going to want to get Arraez basically the same amount of work as the rest of those guys so that's another 600. So their main 11 guys are covering all but 850 PAs with them averaging about 120 games each(7000 PAs averages out to about 5 PAs per game per lineup spot so 600 PAs is about 120 games). That is a general way to account for some minor injuries here and there, some regular scheduled rest, and a major injury or 2 (looking at you Buxton). That's 1320 games played/started by those 11 guys. Out of 1458 total games played for the 9 lineup spots. We're left with 138 starts and 850 PAs for 4th OF, 26th man, and injury call ups. Have to assume Cave gets about about 75 starts (had 91 in 2018 and 72 in 2019) which gets him 375 PAs. So now we're at 63 starts and 475 PAs for 26th man and injury call ups. Let's assume Astudillo is our 26th man for the sake of this argument. Let's also assume Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, and Blankenhorn get some PAs and starts this year. If a catcher goes down it's a toss up between Astudillo getting some spot starts, Rortvedt getting called up, or Telis getting a shot (Astudillo DFA'd then?). But, assuming no long term injuries to Garver or Jeffers, those last 63 starts and 475 PAs are split between Astudillo, Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, and Blankenhorn. 5 guys for 63 starts and 475 PAs. If (when) Buxton gets hurt they aren't sliding Kepler to CF, putting Cave in one corner opposite Kirilloff and moving Astudillo to the 4th OF spot. Astudillo gets no more ABs because of a Buxton injury. They call up Rooker or Larnach to platoon/compete with Cave. So Astudillo is still not vital to team. And it raises Cave's, Rooker's and/or Larnach's start and PA total, not Astudillo's. If Donaldson goes down Arraez gets plugged in and Blankenhorn or Gordon get called up to serve as 5th IF. So it raises their start and PAs numbers. Same scenarios for any OF or IF injury just with different position changes depending on who goes down. I know Baldelli likes to get guys rest, but this team is set up differently than the previous ones. They are short on veterans that demand playing time, and they have a handful of young guys on the 40 man who will be the fill ins for the backups if starters go down. But they aren't going to have those young guys sitting on the bench in Minneapolis when they could be getting every day ABs in St Paul (or other minor league locations). Rooker may platoon with Cave early, but that would mean Kirilloff is in the minors and so the 26th man spot is still open. They aren't going to have a young guy getting 1 or 2 starts a week in the bigs. They just aren't. That's terrible player development. And they have 11 guys who they want to get regular ABs (if Garver is 2019 Garver they'll want him getting more than those 375-400 PAs). They can get their regular rest while still having legit MLB starters in there every day. That, mixed with the young guys not sitting on the bench, means they're likely looking for a veteran guy who can be a start every 10 days guy. Astudillo fits that role. When injuries, or poor performance, start popping up things change. But he fits the early season "you're never really going to play cuz we need to get these 11 guys regular ABs" role.

I'm not a huge Tortuga fan, although he was fun to watch when he first came up, but I wonder who those who feel so strongly about him not being on the roster would like to see in the 26th man spot. They can only carry 13 pitchers so they need to carry at least 13 hitters. I can't imagine anybody is expecting them to sign someone who is taking regular ABs from Arraez. Can't imagine they want one of the young guys sitting on the bench and getting random ABs here and there and a pity start once every couple weeks. Can't imagine they want a guy who would take OF starts or ABs away from Rooker or Kirilloff. The 26th man needs to be a veteran guy who doesn't need to get regular ABs to continue their development (those guys need to be in the minors or part of the regular rotation), but can also step in in a pinch and not look like any of us on this site would look like trying to hit major league pitching. Willians isn't going to be an all-star. He isn't going to be a starter. But, as Nick explains quite well, he is uniquely suited to the 26th man spot. Any scheduled rest for 3B, SS, 2B, and maybe LF comes with Arraez filling in. Any regular rest for OF comes with Cave filling in. Now maybe you folks want an upgrade on Cave as your 5th OF, but that has nothing to do with the 26th man spot. Then you have to have a catcher on the bench in case of injury so Jeffers or Garver are always on the bench, but are the fill in for the other for rest and you don't want your 26th man needing to take up any of their ABs. So that's 12 hitters on the roster. The 26th man should be someone who can mop up any extra ABs here and there for in game injuries and spot starts every couple weeks. Willians is uniquely qualified to fill that role. If someone goes on the IL you call someone up to replace either Cave or Arraez in their roles. Or one of the catchers if they're the ones who get hurt. Willians doesn't suddenly start getting a ton of ABs, unless he's raking. But having Blankenhorn, Gordon, Kirilloff, Rooker, Celestino, or Rortvedt on the bench for 90% of the games and not getting ABs doesn't make sense. Can't imagine Marwan is ready to give up regular major league ABs to sit on the Twins bench if he can get them by signing elsewhere. In fact I can't imagine there are many guys drastically better than Willians who would be willing to play the 26th man role of limited ABs. So throw some names out. Those of you who don't want him filling that role. Who do you want to be the 26th man? Have to assume you're looking at someone from outside the organization or not currently on the 40 man. So who would you have fill that role?

The Twins want Lewis to be their future SS, but he hasn't proven he can be. There isn't a guy in the starting IF who we should feel confident is going to stay healthy all year. Polanco plays a bunch, but he was clearly playing hurt last year. Both of those factors lead me to believe the Twins have no intention of, or desire to, move Arraez in a deal (unless completely blown away). They're trying to compete for the foreseeable future and they need the depth to do that. If they move on from Arraez and Lewis isn't the player they hope he is they're looking at a hole in the middle infield next year. If they move him and we see injuries to any of the starting infielders who have all struggled with injuries in the last few years they're stuck with sub-optimal replacements instead of sliding Arraez in and not missing much of a beat. As far as Cruz goes I think this lowers the chances of a resigning, but only a little. Don't know if you folks know this, but he's not young for a pro athlete. He was clearly hurt at the end of last year as well. Trading Arraez and having Cruz foul one off his shin or take a fastball to the wrist, or whatever (knocking on wood it doesn't happen) leaves the Twins in a spot to fill the DH spot with lesser players than Arraez. I think this is exactly the type of the situation the Twins want. They want 10+ guys who you can slot in and have faith in. 162 games is a lot. You need depth.

Correct. Kirilloff has 0 days of service time accrued. With the rules likely changing after this year I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Twins keep him down to start the year and get the team control grandfathered in. Probably say something along the lines of the lost 2020 minor league season means they want to see him succeed at AAA first.

I also think the players will do everything they can to fix the ridiculous service time rules after this year. But to me I think it's the reason the Twins will keep him down to start if they don't sign him to an extension pre-season. The league won't give up their previously established control on young players who have already debuted. It's more likely the league agrees to fix those rules, but demand all players who've debuted be grandfathered in. So it'd make more sense for the Twins to get all their top guys a cup of coffee at least this year and lock in the team control. If they want to go that shady route. Don't think they'd do that, but wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't start with the big club.

The longest playoff losing streak in North American sports history is driven way more by the failure of the offense in the postseason than the pitching. Look no further than last year where the "guys of this caliber" gave the Twins every chance in the world to win both of those games.

You conveniently didn't include the part of my posts where I listed stats and information. Like since 2016 Berrios being #35 in fWAR to Happ's #38. Or where I mentioned he's #28 in best ERA in the game since 2015. Right after Sonny Gray and James Paxton and ahead of Maeda. 2 guys many on here are begging to be signed or traded for and ahead of the guy most everyone lists as the Twins current #1. He doesn't need to do anything but what he has been doing. Including last year where he had an ERA+ of 123 compared to Berrios' 109. He doesn't strike people out like Berrios, but basically every other stat goes to Happ. Sorry the numbers don't reflect your perception of how things are, but he's been a very good pitcher for a long time and has had 1 ERA+ under 100 since 2015. How many hitters have had career years at age 38? Cruz seems to have done alright at 38, 39, and 40. By your logic that was a bad signing to make. And we REALLY shouldn't bring him back at age 41. Right?

Nope, I saw the Ifs and understood all that. I just disagreed and disputed it. You replied to Seth's comment where he suggests Happ is likely the #3 and could possibly be their #1. I agreed with you that he's likely not their #1 as Seth said was possible, but being the #3 is entirely possible. I never said you said he WAS their #1 or the prospects ARE subpar. I took your IFS and refuted them. Your assumption is that IF he turns out to be their #1 it means the guys ahead of him, in your mind, coming into the year failed. That wasn't the argument Seth was trying to make that you refuted. He was suggesting that based on Happ's career, even recent years, Happ has proven to be a talented MLB pitcher and has it in him to put up very good numbers. Likely more of #3 numbers, but, like Maeda did last year, he has it in him to surprise and put up #1 numbers. What I'm saying is even your IF is not what Seth was suggesting. And you didn't say it "could be a long year" if he's their #1, you said its "gonna be." And I refuted your suggestion that IF the prospects in the minors can't come up and be top 40 pitchers in baseball the minors don't really have any prospects. I say top 40 because since 2016 Happ is #38 in fWAR. Berrios is #35 for a reference point. He's had the 28th best ERA in baseball since 2015 (minimum 100 starts). Reference points: Sonny Gray, James Paxton, JA Happ, Kenta Maeda, Marcus Stroman (stole that from this article https://theathletic.com/2335396/2021/01/21/j-a-happ-twins-free-agency-needs/). My point was that, even with IF in there, the idea that prospects, who didn't have a season last year, should be counted on to come up, fill the 5 spot, and be able to outdo those numbers shows a complete lack of understanding of how prospects should be handled and how the minors work. It's weird that you suggest a pitcher with those kinds of numbers shouldn't be relied on for more than the 5th spot on a contender, but you think a team should be able to count on rookies to fill the 5th spot on a contender. And if instead of the prospects you meant the Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer type group it is still unreasonable to expect them to be that when they haven't shown they can be. Although Dobnak has had some promising stretches. I took your IFS into consideration when disagreeing. I disagreed with it even with the ifs. Happ is not a sexy signing. When I first heard about it and saw it was 8 mil I wasn't a fan. Deeper diving into his numbers shows its actually a very reasonable deal and Seth was pretty reasonable with saying he's got a real shot at being their #3 and an outside shot at going Maeda on things and being their #1 by having a top of his ability year.

Problem with your reasoning is that you're assuming for him to be the best pitcher on the staff it means the guys you perceive as better than him have to come down to the level you perceive him at. I think Seth was suggesting he has shown the ability to pitch above the level you expect those ahead of him in the rotation to pitch at. And getting out of Yankee stadium should be a natural boost to his stats. I don't know if your comment on the minor leaguers means you think if they can't outperform him this year they're not really prospects, but I hope that isn't the case. These comment sections get so many "call up the young guys and see what we have in them" comments it's insane. You don't take someone with a 7th grade education, put them in college, watch them fail and say "see, not actually that smart." Prospects having missed an entire season shouldn't be relied upon to perform to MLB standards early this year. Calling up prospects to "see what you have in them" is a recipe for disaster. Promoting young players is a very tough balancing act. Everyone wanted Buxton up to "see what he can do" and that was a complete disaster. If your comment on the minor leaguers was referring to Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer type younger pitchers who have debuted I guess all I can say is they've shown the level they're currently at and relying on them for big roles this year would not be a move many teams with World Series aspirations would make. I'm not thrilled by this signing, but a deeper dive into Happ shows he has been more than serviceable even at his advanced age. Don't agree with Seth that he could be their #1, but #3 Pineda type seems like a reasonable expectation.

Marwin's OPS+ went from below average, but not killing you at 94 in his first year with the Twins and cratered to 68 last year. He isn't a good enough baseball player anymore. And team chemistry in the majors isn't about simply having the same guys in the same clubhouse year after year. These guys are professional athletes who are used to having guys come and go. You definitely want guys who get along and trust the guys next to them, but Marwin leaving will have no effect on the clubhouse chemistry. And running back the same team as last year is not a serious attempt at a WS. It's a team that probably competes for the playoffs, but wouldn't even be the favorite to win the division.

That, or something similar, would be my choice of offseason moves as well. Simmons is my #1 position player signing, and adding 2 starters and 2 bullpen guys would be my move. I'd love to see Cruz back, but his risk of regression mixed with his reported contract desires makes it hard to build out the team around him, unfortunately.

Most recent reports I've seen on Tanaka are that he's looking for 1 year, 15-20 mil. Also rumors that he's more than willing to go back to Japan and end his career there if he can't get that kind of money. Agree he is an intriguing signing, but I don't think he's worth 15-20.

Isn't the opposite actually true? A draft makes it so that only the teams at the top have a chance to sign the "top players." It's the main reason for drafts as it gives the worst teams the first shot at the "best" players if they can scout correctly. This auction format gives teams more options on how they want to play things. As some on here have said it gives teams a choice between quantity and quality. If you're convinced the number 1 guy is going to be a star throw your whole allotment of money at him. Or you can spread it out and try to sign as many as possible and give yourself a bunch of lottery tickets. I actually wish the draft would go to this type of format and give teams more avenues to be strategic and fill their organizations with talent how they see fit.

I think the flexibility Rooker brings is highly overstated. He's a negative defensive asset at a corner OF spot or 1B. He brings nothing defensively beyond being able to stand him out there. Better than Cruz, but not something that outweighs the offensive difference in any meaningful way. Cruz also debuted in the majors at age 24 (where he OPSed .829 if that's the only stat you want to use). That's a super small sample size and worse than Rooker's very small sample size in his age 25 debut. But Cruz's career numbers in the majors (including his very rough first few years) are .278/.347/.529/.876 with a 133 OPS+ and 22% career K rate. Rooker in the minors has slashed .267/.357/.505/.861 with 28% K rate (35% at AAA in that .933 OPS season). Thinking he's going to come into the majors and match Cruz's career numbers is a stretch. Thinking he can come up and match Cruz's numbers from the last 2 years is really out there. Stranger things have happened, but the point of my post is that expecting any of those kids, or combination of them, to come up and do what Cruz has done is bad team building. Especially now that the teams know Rooker will likely be around and will have legit scouting reports on him. If you're legitimately attempting to win a WS you don't come into the season relying on multiple rookies to replace your .308/.394/.626/1.020 168 OPS+ superstar bat. You also don't bank on that bat repeating those numbers at the age of 41. Thus the combination of the rookies and old guy that I suggested. Instead of suggesting, or hoping, a rookie with a sky high minor league K rate will come into the majors and increase his productivity across the board.

Cruz. I don't like the idea of signing long term DH only contracts unless you're getting Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz. And I don't think Ozuna is either of those guys. And while he can technically play the OF, so can I. You can put me out there, but I wouldn't be helping the team. Ozuna is a DH only moving forward and I just don't think he can replicate his 2020 stats for full years moving forward. Cruz is likely not a 162 game DH this year even. I think his end of the year slump was caused largely by his ailing knee, but as you get into your 40s you don't become less likely to have joint pain. I think he still has a good year in him and some classic Boom Stick stretches where he can carry the offense, but don't think I'd pencil him in for all 162. But he's still useful to have in the lineup and in the clubhouse on a 1 year deal. Part of his usefulness is that counting on the young guys to come up and replicate anywhere close to his numbers, or even provide above league average DH numbers, is not a smart plan going into a year you're looking to contend. Rooker has never put up Cruz like numbers in the minors so why would we think he'd suddenly do it in the majors? He looked really good for a week in the majors, but that literally means nothing. The league is going to have scouting reports on him now and he's going to have to adjust from the jump this year. It's time for the young guys to start getting their chances, but don't do it without a safety net. Cruz provides a nice 1 year (throw in an option year again if he really wants it) safety net for the kids. He can get the majority of the DH ABs as long as he's proving to be useful while also helping mentor the young kids. Cruz and Donaldson are both professional hitters who have shown they're more than willing to work with the young guys and disseminate the wisdom that have helped them both produce at very high levels. Put Cruz in the DH spot for 2021, but give him some regular rest while cycling other guys through to keep him as healthy as he can at 41 years old and getting everyone who needs/disserves them regular ABs. Cruz is the perfect veteran safety net as the team works to contend while continuing to look to be competitive for the years to come.

Looks like I'm going to have to post similar things in a lot of posts today. Nelson Cruz is not going to sign anywhere until the league announces if the NL will have a DH. All of his leverage hangs on that decision. The Twins will pay him 10-12 per year now because nobody else is bidding on him. If the NL gets the DH he will have multiple suiters and can demand 15-17 mil per year. Why would the Twins sign him to a deal for more than they have to and why would he accept a lower deal without knowing he has to? Why is the assumption that since no team in the league outside of the just sold Mets has spent any money on the FA market the Twins are somehow being "sure of themselves?" The Padres spent in trades, sure. So 2 teams have spent any real money so far, but somehow the Twins are being ridiculous? Cruz won't sign until the NL announcement is made and no other bats will move until DJ LeMahieu or JT Realmuto sign. The Twins aren't signing those guys so they are waiting the market out like every other team not looking at those guys is doing. Welcome to the business world.