chpettit19

You can't say there's a chance he develops a quality breaking pitch and follow it with the only risk being his shoulder. There's a clear risk that a 24 year old who hasn't developed a 3rd pitch yet (that's the way I'm reading your post) never develops a 3rd pitch and 2 pitch starters do not have "really high floors." It's been mentioned a lot that most evaluators see his ceiling as a number 3 starter. That's not a really high ceiling let alone a really high floor.

I'm a huge fan of prospects and love all the lists and rankings and info that come out on them. I follow it more than the average baseball fan. But prospects are just prospects. Dozier isn't a world beater and is probably at least slightly over valued in our fan minds because that's pretty basic human nature. My preference has been to trade away our veteran players for prospects for the last 5 years, but the veterans that should have been traded were the ones we were bringing in for 1 year and then extending after they had career years in their 30s. Those are the guys you trade for what you can get and hope one of the prospects hit and you get a good player. Trading an established MLB All Star for 1 prospect isn't the way you rebuild. The Rays trade is interesting, but we need to remember that they're in a different situation than the Twins. They're closer to competing than the Twins are and if De Leon hits they can trade from their excess of starting pitchers to fill holes. The Twins have 2 trade chips anyone would want (other than Buxton and Sano type young guys). I would have preferred both Dozier and Santana being traded, but trading either of them for 1 prospect wouldn't be helpful. Even if De Leon turns into the next Kershaw it doesn't mean the Twins screwed up by not getting him. Right now all he is is a prospect who's never thrown anywhere near 200 innings, while Dozier is a streaky hitter, he is a proven MLB player. I also don't understand the frustration with the FO so far. Would it have been nice if the roster had major changes and we would be competing for championships starting in 2017. I'd love that. But I don't know what realistic moves people think could have been made. Even if they wanted to go out and make huge splashes and spend a ton of money I don't know what they could have done. They need pitching. The offense is serviceable. Would it be nice to have Trumbo, Encarnacion, Napoli, Desmond, "whoever else you thought was a good free agent bat?" Yes it would be awesome to have a bunch of big sluggers and watch the ball fly out at record rates and score a ton of runs. Ask the Rockies and they'll tell you you still won't win if you can't get outs. There were no pitchers on the free agent market this year that would have made any drastic improvement to our rotation. There were some bullpen arms that would have really helped, but the prices were insane for the good ones. It's very realistic to think the Twins will add another piece or 2 from the left over free agents as prices continue to come down, but none of them will make a huge difference. And as far as trades go I don't know what the expectations could have been there either. Again they only have 2 pieces to trade that could bring any return that would be helpful. Trading Santana means you then have 0 good, reliable starters for this season. I would be ok with that, but you better bring back multiple arms that could help down the road. Dozier is too good to only bring back 1 prospect of De Leon's level. At that point trading people just to do it so people think you're doing things is counterproductive. Hold onto Dozier and hope the market opens up more down the road and if not enjoy him hitting 25+ homers the next 2 years and go from there. This was a rough offseason to take over a team like this as there weren't many realistic moves to be made to improve the major league roster.

Trading Dozier for De Leon isn't the same as trading him for 6 years of a number 3. It's trading him for the possibility of a number 3. There's a huge difference there. De Leon may never be a number 4 or 5 big league pitcher let alone a number 3.

I didn't say they weren't doing things. I said they were doing what they could in their way. I'm sure everyone in the clubhouse is doing what they can to connect with each other and to help everyone else out. They all want to win and helping each other is part of doing that. I'm not saying Dozier and Mauer aren't doing that, I'm saying Joe Mauer isn't the type of personality that young players flock to. He's obviously different behind closed doors, but he's a generally quiet guy who doesn't show a great deal of emotion. He's more of the stereotypical "old school" player in that way. Dozier certainly has an outgoing personality and I'm sure he's doing what he can with them as well. It's not surprising to hear EE is often talking with the young guys. My point is that Rosario and Sano especially are emotional young guys who play with some flair. That's not at all the type of player Joe Mauer is. And in general people tend to gravitate towards people who are similar to themselves in those ways. If Joe could get Rosario to buy into 1/10th of the patience he has at the plate Rosario would be much better of a hitter for it. But to get people to buy into what you're preaching you have to connect with them and I just don't believe Joe Mauer is a guy who connects well with those types of players. I have no problem believing Dozier is someone who can connect better with them. But neither of those guys are a Torii Hunter type personality who can really bring an entire clubhouse together. And I don't believe Paul Molitor is either. Joe Maddon and Terry Francona got a ton of praise for their in game decisions during the post season and during their careers. They're very smart baseball minds. But they're even better at getting the most out of their teams by how they run their clubhouse and how they make their players feel. That is obviously made easier by winning games and having the caliber of players they have, but Joe did it with the Rays when they were awful and Terry has done it the last few years with the Indians when they weren't very good. I have no problem admitting this is based off the read I get by watching them on TV and that sort of thing, but I thought there was a pretty clear difference in the clubhouse culture between 2015 and 2016. And I think Hunter was a huge part of it. And I think it matters. But like I said in my original post I could be completely off.

I think the Twins could use a hispanic, veteran bat. This could all be completely off, but I just feel like there's a gap between the veterans and the young guys in the club house. I just can't imagine Sano, Polanco, Rosario, or even Buxton and Kepler are real close with Mauer or Dozier. I think Dozier probably does what he can to help the young guys out in their transition and Mauer probably does in his own way, but they're not guys that can really connect with those young guys. I don't think it was a complete coincedence that the 1 good year they've had in the last 6 was the year Hunter was in the clubhouse. I think getting someone who could help guide the young guns would be incredibly helpful. Someone who has been to the postseason. Someone who maybe had their struggles early in their career and worked through them. Someone with some energy and attitude. The answer to a lot of those criteria is Jose Bautista. Unfortunately everything I've heard is that he's not in Toronto right now cuz he's not well liked in the clubhouse. Maybe he'd be helpful for half a season before they flipped him for a midlevel prospect. But I think the Twins need someone who can connect with the youth that's coming. I just don't see anyone in the clubhouse that can. Maybe Ervin Santana? But between Dozier, Mauer and Molitor (the 3 guys that should be the leaders) it just doesn't feel like they're people that connect well with the guys that are the future of this franchise. Franklin Gutierrez is another interesting veteran bat.

The idea that a 103 loss team can have a "roster crunch" or possibly compete for a championship this year are the exact reasons they've been so terrible for the last 6 years (minus one fluke year). Robbie Grossman, JJ Hardy*, Phil Hughes, Kendrys Morales*, Glen Perkins, Trevor Plouffe, Ervin Santana**, Brian Dozier**, Kurt Suzuki, Josh Willingham List of guys off the top of my head that either weren't traded while having a career year or just plain being a heck of a trade piece on a team going nowhere (1 decent prospect for any of them not named Perkins would have been better than keeping them while we continued to suck), *were traded, but were traded at the bottom of their value for pieces that had absolutely no chance of ever being a piece on a championship team, or **are current pieces of an awful team that haven't been traded despite the fact that the team will continue to struggle in the near future. Yes, I realize a Dozier trade is a possibility, but with this terrible free agent pitching class it is a perfect time to shop Ervin and I haven't seen any reliable reports that the Twins have even considered it strongly. The Twins need 4 starting pitchers to compete. Some of them may already be in the system, but other than Ervin there isn't a starting pitcher on the staff from last year that would pitch in the postseason for a true contender. The Twins have refused to be realistic about themselves or were just really, really, really bad about assessing their ability to compete with other major league baseball teams. The White Sox have possibly already passed the Twins in the rebuild timeline and it took them 2 days and 2 trades. The Twins didn't have a Chris Sale to trade in the last few years, but they had veteran guys who could have brought back at least 1 very good prospect. And they had Glen Perkins closing games on a 90 loss team for years. He could have brought back multiple nice pieces. Now the Twins have put themselves back in the crappy situation of being in the middle of the pack for the next hand full of years if Buxton and Sano turn out. We have more solid prospects coming up, but they won't just step in and be big time major league players who are able to compete for championships. By the time we have 25 guys who can help compete for a title it'll be time to start talking about what we can get for Buxton and Sano (assuming they do become who they could). Playing the "we're trying to compete this year" game when you have no realistic chance to compete is the worst possible strategy and it's been our strategy for a decade. Everyone points at the Cubs and Astros as teams who rebuilt right. And they were awful, completely awful, for a few years because they traded every veteran for prospects. Now the White Sox are doing it. Until the Twins are willing to be real with themselves and trade guys who won't be around or helping when they are realistically going to be able to compete they will stick in the middle and go nowhere. You need to get good value for Dozier and his streakiness has made it hard to trade him the last few years, but you need to trade him before this year's trade deadline. As for a roster crunch...there's no such thing on a 103 loss team or a team that's lost 90+ in 5 of the last 6 years.. That's a ridiculous idea. It is possible to have a terribly run franchise that is WAY too loyal to average (at best) veterans at the expense of younger, better players. That isn't a roster crunch, though. It's just poor management of assets.

I don't think the Twins or anyone here is asking for a "haul." But the Tigers got 2 good pitching prospects in return. That seems reasonable for Dozier and appears to be what the Twins are asking for. Fullmer was the rookie of the year and Cessa is holding his own in the bigs at the age of 24 and looks to have a little more in him. That's a 1 and 3 starter. If you think De Leon is a 1 you should be asking for one of their other top 10 prospects with him and that appears to be what's happening. A proven MLB all-star position player should never be traded in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect.

Ok then I think you're completely wrong about the entire thing. You really think other teams care that this report came out? They don't. The report is simply stating that the Twins won't leave Brian Dozier and the rest of their roster in limbo forever. They didn't say they'll never reopen negotiations. They have a season to prepare for and having this situation hanging over their head all offseason is bad for their team. I think you're overestimating what media reports mean to teams. Again, in this day and age everything is made public. All this report says is that the Twins need to move on from this situation and need to know what their team will look like moving into the season. If a team wants to get Dozier they can put their best deal on the table. If it isn't what they want they'll tell everyone "Thanks for the offer, but we're moving forward as is. If you want to offer us something better than this at a later date you have our number." This report is not an ultimatum as there will be no repercussions or a change in their relationship. It's way less aggressive than you seem to think it is. This will have absolutely 0 effect on any later negotiations with the Dodgers or any other organization.

No, he works for the Minneapolis Start Tribune. Bet it wouldn't be too hard to get in contact with him (in fact his email address is lneal@startribune.com if you wanna give him some info). My point is that 1. you have no idea how it went down behind the scenes 2. in this day and age everything is made public so it's not surprising this was 3. I disagree that it's bad that it's been made public that the Twins won't just take whatever trade you put in front of them.

Your point makes sense if you're correct with how it all went down. Who says it was even the Twins that released this? Is it completely impossible that the Dodgers called this reporter? It's more likely that it came from the Twins, but not the only possibility. And my guess would be that the Twins told the Dodgers and every other team they've talked with that this is their deadline. Probably days before this story even came out. To assume you know what's actually happening behind the scenes is pretty presumptive of you. It's a new front office who has no real track record of negotiating with teams. Having it known publicly that they wouldn't be pushed around and forced to take a crap trade is not a bad thing. If they get fleeced on their first big trade the entire league will look at them as a team that can be taken advantage of. This all would have been way better had the Dodgers thrown 2 top 7 prospects at them right away and the deal was done in a flash, but that's not how it went. The teams are playing a game of chicken now and having the rest of the league know that we didn't just cave and give in because the big, bad Dodgers told us to is not bad. In this day and age everything is made public. The "deadline" being made public is not a huge deal.

The Twins can't come out of the Dozier trade with 1 pitching prospect. It would be a complete disaster. Adam Eaton is a heck of a defender in RF and a solid lead off hitter with a team friendly contract for 5 years. His contract length and affordability got the White Sox an extra prospect. Eaton is not a good defender in CF, which is where the Nats are apparently planning on playing him. That drastically decreases his value. The Sox got the Nats 3 best pitching prospects (or at least 3 of their top 4). 2 of which will be pitching in the majors this season. If the Twins were to bring back simply De Leon it would be a complete failure on the part of the front office. Giolito is (or was depending on who you talk to) the top pitching prospect in baseball last year. Lopez and De Leon are ranked very similar to each other. Dunning was a first round pick this year. I don't care how nice Eaton's contract is, he is not worth that much more than Dozier. The difference is how desperate the Nats were. Their timetable is 2 years and they know it. They have the money to spend on big free agents, but that doesn't mean they just have an eternally open window to win. They had a hole, felt desperate to fill it and gave up what the White Sox wanted. To this point the Dodgers don't feel that desperate. It's a risk to keep Dozier into the season as he could start off horribly or De Leon could take a step forward and start out super well. It's a risk worth taking. Trading Dozier straight up for 1 prospect is not getting value for him. It's getting the most you can right now, but it is an incredibly poor use of your resources. The Twins have seemed to do everything they can to make it appear that there is some sort of bidding war and more teams interested in Dozier. The Dodgers didn't fall for it. Friedman is too smart to bid against himself. Putting the stories in the media is to get it on the owners radar. The Twins can't trick Friedman into giving up more, but they can convince Dodgers ownership that Utley playing second will ruin their chance to win a title. Convincing ownership that their window is closing and Dozier is the key to taking advantage of their current window is how you get more in this deal. Once ownership feels this is a deal they need to get done they call their employee, Mr. Friedman, and tell him to quit messing around and do what it takes to get this last piece in place. The Twins are playing this as well as they can and hopefully it turns out well for them. But trading him straight up for a prospect (and that's all De Leon is) just because that's all that's available is not a good decision.

I disagree. Atlanta is very much rebuilding. Locking up your 4 WAR, 26 year old, gold glove centerfielder through his arb years plus a little at a very reasonable rate is what smart rebuilding teams do. It gives you cost certainty. It's what the Twins will (or at least should) do with Buxton and Sano once the new front office has a good idea of what they think those 2 will be in the long run. You don't need to win at a super high level to fill a new stadium well. It fills itself because people want to come see the new stadium. The next couple years is when you need to be winning. And after the huge haul of prospects they got last winter and all the payroll they've cut they've positioned themselves very well to start winning big the next couple years because at least a couple of their young arms will turn out to be good MLB pitchers. And they'll be very well set up to wait for the big market teams to blow all their payrolls on Harper, Machado, Donaldson, and Kershaw and jump in to sign one or two of the 15 (maybe an exaggeration) pretty big time free agents after the 2018 season. As for signing 40 year old pitchers and a decent utility guy that's also what smart rebuilding teams do. It's what TR and the Twins refused to do. They'll flip those guys at the deadline for even more near MLB ready prospects if they are having good years and keep them for a full year of leadership for the young guys if they aren't. 2 years for Rodriguez isn't long term. You can simply flip him at either deadline or during the offseason or have him as a solid backup as you get your youngsters experience. Atlanta is doing exactly what the Cubs and Astros did and what MN refused to do. They're rebuilding the most efficient way. And you bring in those "value" guys hoping you find a diamond in the rough. If not you DFA them without thinking twice. Atlanta is doing what MN should be doing. And trading from your stash of top end pitching prospects for a guy who's going to leave in 2 years is how you set your rebuild back a few years. Atlanta is in wait and see mode.

This is the front office's only move. It's been made pretty clear that the Dodgers are the only team interested in trading for Dozier. Nobody is being fooled by the Cardinals, Nats, Braves, or Giants talk. Those teams either don't have the prospects to make a deal or are in the same boat as the Twins and 2 years of Dozier isn't a need. The Twins have to get the Dodgers to become a little desperate somehow and this is the last card they have to play before the season actually starts. They need to convince the Dodgers they are more than ok keeping Dozier and really won't give him up for just 1 pitching prospect no matter how well regarded he is. I think this front office is smart enough to keep him if they don't get the deal they want. Unlike the Johan trade that was completed simply to do it. They will keep Dozier for as long as it takes to get a package worth dealing him for. If nothing gets done now you wait for the season and hope Dozier starts well and either somebody loses an infielder and gives something up for Dozier or the Dodgers continue to suck against lefties and they finally kick in one of their other well regarded guys. Getting De Leon straight up for Dozier would be a disaster of a trade.

The gist of my post was that all of these guys need to get better. Rosario is further along so his leash will be shorter (though ultimately he goes to the bench if he stumbles, no doubt). He needs to improve quickly. Buxton is still in danger of being bounced to the minors because his very low floor seems to match the very high expectations. Kepler is the newest of the bunch and at this point he has proven himself adequately. Of the three, he deserves the most slack. I don't know that hitting .230 is proving himself adequately. He's certainly showed he has the physical ability to hit major league pitching. Now the real proving comes. The league has real information on him and will attack his weaknesses now. He needs to show he can make the adjustment to that. He didn't make the adjustment at all at the end of last year. The optimist in me thinks the last 2 years have been great for Buxton. I think he's strong mentally and the struggles didn't crush him like they can. He's been forced to make adjustments and has shown he can do it. His struggles showed the glaring weakness we have in developing players as they tried to make him into a player he isn't and took away his athleticism. The hope that September was for real is in the fact that he started being an athlete again. He used his leg kick no matter the count and stopped being so robotic. He was just out there playing baseball and being the athletic freak that he is.

I don't know that I can give Dozier an A+. Yes, 42 homeruns is a ton, especially for a 2b. But he got that with a "greatest of all time" type second half. He was awful. Like questioning if he needs to be sent down for a week or 2 awful for the first half. Consistency has to count for something. And batting average has to count for something. Putting up out of this world numbers when your team is completely out of it is only impressive to an extent. He was expecting this team to compete when the season started and felt that he needed to be a big part of that. And he was at the head of the line when it came to not performing to start the year. I'd give him an A-. Still by far the best player, but being bellow replacement level for the first couple months has to hurt him a little. Cuz it really hurt the team. ​I'd guess it's also a big part of the reason we aren't seeing huge interest in him. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the 2 teams he makes the most sense for. And they're both really smart front offices. You can't fool them by just throwing 42 homeruns in their face and expect them to dish out 3 of their top 10 guys. 42 homeruns is not sustainable. The best chance for a huge return for Dozier is to keep him and hope he gets off to a huge start knowing there's no pressure this year cuz the team is expected to suck. If he hits 20 in the first half you'll get 3 top 5 to 7 prospects from a team with an injury or just a need for some right handed pop. Mark Trumbo is a much better option for a team just looking for right handed power as he'll "only" cost a 1st round pick and it appears that his price tag isn't going to be that high as him and every other big right handed bat not named Cespedes seems to have terribly misread the market this winter.

I think these guys can get us back to a respectable rotation if a few of them work out, but this article could have been written as a "don't get too excited" article just by changing the intro. The guy that's been promoted as our future stud and number 1 pitcher "could still easily end up in the bullpen." The second guy doesn't have dominating pitches or pinpoint command. Sounds like a description of Tommy Milone. The 3rd guy hasn't thrown 100 innings and is a fastball/slider lefty who has been in a bullpen since college. Not exactly screaming "I'll save your rotation!" The last guy has the best stuff and in a vacuum has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm, but has never stayed healthy so expecting him to provide legitimate innings anytime soon seems far fetched. I love the depth of the Twins pitching prospects as they seem to have a whole bunch who have a real chance to make the majors and contribute in either the rotation or the pen. It's not a disaster if a few end up dominating in the pen (nobody would complain about one of them becoming Wade Davis). But it's hard to get too excited when they all have the upside of a number 3 starter if everything breaks right. They seem to be a classic Twins group of average starters who can do enough to not sink a strong offensive team in the regular season, but have no chance of beating legit teams in the playoffs. One of them needs to take a step and become a legit major league #2 pitcher. You don't need an Ace to win, but your best pitcher can't be the 3rd best pitcher in a good playoff team's rotation. If you don't have an ace you need at least 2 #2 guys and the rest need to be #3s. Hopefully a few of the current prospects take another step and have a tick up in their stuff and can be better than #3s.

The luxury tax situation is actually good for the Twins in a way. It's the closest thing to a hard cap they could ask for. If you break the threshold in any meaningful way you end up paying a 92% tax. That means you're looking at a $400 mil payroll. No team is going to be willing to do that. So it will hold contracts in check a little bit. It's not a huge thing, and the interesting part will be seeing what it does in the future as inflation continues to grow contracts and how teams like the Yankees and Dodgers will conduct business with having Harper, Machado, etc. coming out as free agents after the 2018 season. You can't sign Harper for the $40 mil a year he's reportedly seeking and then have Kershaw at 30+ and Jansen at 20 and then build your team through other free agents. Having 40% of your payroll wrapped up in 3 guys makes life hard. Even if they're 3 of the best players in the game. It should theoretically open the market up to more teams when it comes to the big time free agents. And if this offseason is any indication the GMs around the league are learning the lesson that huge long term deals to vets are a terrible idea as they get old and become wasted money. Mixing that with the extreme penalties of the luxury tax should make it, at least minimally, easier for the Twins to resign a few homegrown studs. Once we have homegrown studs again that is.

Nailed it. This is the key to the Twins becoming a competitive team again and being able to start having their big prospects live up to expectations. Both pitching and hitting coaches need to be better at this. "The Twins way" worked in the early 2000s because they had all the same type of players. The Piranhas were all "foot down early, slap the ball the other way" type players to start with so they were all able to produce the way the Twins wanted. The Twins have shown 0 ability to adapt to different types of players. Buxton looks like he's ready to be the everyday centerfielder next year after the Twins wasted 2 years of big league playing time trying to turn him into a piranha for no apparent reason. He had 9 homeruns in September and looked to be the uber-athletic 5 tool player he was supposed to be because he finally went back to just being an uber-athletic 5 tool player instead of trying to think his way through everything and do it "the Twins way." Great coaches make small tweaks to individual players to get the most out of their skill sets. Crappy coaches try to completely remake a player because that's the only thing they can coach. The Twins need to go out and find coaches who can adjust to different players instead of forcing every player to adjust to them.

Almora is the everyday player, not Almost. Sorry, autocorrect got me on that one.

The Cubs are an enviable team because they are set up for success for years because of how they built their team.Their draft picks are not the main reason they're great this year, but drafting an MVP caliber player (Bryant), an All-Star caliber player (Schwarber), a very likely every day player (Almost) and a consensus top 50 prospect with your 4 first round picks is crushing it at the top of the draft and is how you build a long term competitive team. And if that's what we want in MN then the narrative is not incorrect. The draft is 1 of several parts of building a successful franchise, but it's a huge one in a smallish market when you're drafting in the top 10. You need to make those picks count. And the Cubs have.

The beginning of the Cubs rebuild and the principles behind the whole thing are things Falvey or any front office can learn from. It's easy to point at Lester and Lackey and say they make too much and the Pohlads will never pay that money. But those were "put us over the top" signings. The Cubs looked deep into pitching analytics and went out and got guys they felt were underperforming, but could be very good pitchers. The 4 big arms they brought in (Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hammel) are all outperforming their career numbers. Obviously Lester and Lackey were big time pitchers before they stepped foot in that clubhouse, but Arrieta was awful and Hammel was pedestrian at best. The Cubs have targeted certain analytics and skills in pitchers and have a program to help build those pitchers into above average players. They also have the clubhouse atmosphere that breeds healthy competition and hard work. Offensively they built around big time prospects and crushing every pick at the top of the draft. They know high end college bats are the most likely to turn out to be the players you want. High school arms are the least likely. So they stocked their system with high end college bats and mixed that with trading away any player worth anything that they didn't expect to be around once they got good. The overabundance of impact bats in their system put them in a position to make deadline deals during the seasons they expect to compete for a championship. They went out and got the best closer in the game without putting a dent in their long term window for success. Those are all things Falvey can learn from. I have high hopes for his ability to build a pitching staff, as that's what he focused on in Cleveland. The Twins are at a different stage of their rebuild as they have their big time prospects already in the bigs and need to do things quickly to improve the pitching staff before the Sanos and Buxtons of the world leave in free agency. The thing the Cubs did best was time their rebuild. They got everyone to the bigs around the same time and built it all together. The first thing Falvey needs to do is get an accurate read on the timeline for serious contention.