chpettit19

.236/.310/.380/.690 .249/.311/.412/.723 .266/.325/.447/.772 Teams with .690 or worse OPS this year: Nats, Royals, Reds, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Pirates, Athletics, Tigers Teams with .690 to .723 OPS this year: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rangers, Mariners, White Sox, Guardians, Padres, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox Average team OPS is .708. So between 1st time and 2nd time through the average major league starter goes from treating a lineup like the bottom 9 teams to being hit like an above average team. Teams between .723 to .772 this year: Brewers, Rockies, Phillies, Mets, Twins, Astros, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Yankees, Braves. Teams with .772 or better OPS this year: Dodgers. You don't think those are big swings? Average major league starter (and I think we all agree the Twins aren't throwing out many starters that are significantly above average) goes from facing the Royals the first time through to facing the White Sox the second time through to facing the Braves/Dodgers the third time through. Feels awfully significant to me.

I'd buy it if BA, OBP, Slg, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, K%, WHIP, BABIP, LOB%, FIP, and xFIP all didn't get worse FTO vs STO vs TTO. I mean how many more stats do you need to see league wide get progressively worse each time through the order before it's something to pay attention to?

I agree with you. And that would be why the bigger problem isn't a 34 year old Gray, but that the org hasn't produced anyone better than a 34 year old Gray if nobody on that list is able to do it. I think Mahle is a #2. I think Winder and Paddack can be #3s if their arms allow it. I think Ryan is a #4 on a good staff. And Ober is a solid #5. The rest are all fliers, but the expectation has to be that they're able to develop at least 1 guy who can fill the #3 slot in a good rotation with Ryan and Ober behind them. If we're relying on Sonny Gray at the age of 34 to be better than basically everyone on that list the team is in an awful spot with their rotation. I may not have expressed it well, but that was my point. If they extend Mahle, and I grant that that is a big if, they should be able to produce 4 major leaguers out of Mahle, Winder, Paddack, Ryan, and Ober. If that's the case we need someone much better than a 34 year old Gray at the front of that rotation. I wouldn't bet on any of the prospects being a #1, but if 2 or 3 can turn into #2-4 types you could have a rotation full of #2 and 3s, hopefully, and that definitely gives you a fighting chance. A real flier in this rotation talk is Duran. Would they ever consider putting him back in the rotation, or is he locked into a pen role from here on out? He could be a #1 and a rotation of Duran, Mahle, Paddack, Winder, Ryan to start '24 wouldn't look half bad to me.

Duran and Miranda are neck and neck to me. Miranda may have a slight edge because he's an everyday player. I think most everyone had hopes he'd show up and start to lay claim to the everyday 3B job moving forward, but I don't know that any of us expected him to be the best hitter on the team on August 18th, and that's exactly what I'd say he is. If I'm the FO I'm reaching out to his reps and seeing what it takes to sign him for 10 years. 10 years 100 mil get it done? I think it should and I'd do it today. Duran has saved this pen, and, likely, this team. He had some 2 inning outings, he's had saves, he's become the 8th inning guy now, was the fireman a few times. He's done everything and I cringe thinking of what this season would've been without him. But as a reliever he loses a couple points on my Twins rookie of the year ballot so he'd be 2nd for me. Joe Ryan seems to have settled in where he was most likely to settle in and it's as a league average pitcher with some flashes of greatness against weaker competition and some real blowup games when he's not on against good offenses. Just doesn't have the stuff to be able to perform when he's not hitting his spots so he'll likely always be this guy. Which is still a useful guy to have on your team. Just don't want him making more opening day starts cuz he shouldn't be the #1 on any competitive staff.

Jose Berrios is a weird example to use here. He was tied for 6th in innings pitched in 2021. He threw 200.1 innings in 2019. 192.1 in 2018. He was on pace for 200 innings again last year when a team traded 2 of their top prospects for him and immediately gave him the big money deal you claim he shouldn't have been able to get because of how the Twins treat their pitchers. You literally used a pitcher who disproves your point in your post. He's now averaging 5.3 innings per start for the team that gave him that big money deal. And has an ERA of 5.61. Maybe the Twins were the ones who were right on this one?

Welcome to TD! My hope is that part of his frustration is with himself for not being good enough to pitch 6 innings a start lately.

They've tried to let him go deeper a couple times and it's been an utter disaster every time. Archer has openly admitted that he just hasn't been able to build up the strength to go deeper into games even though he'd like to. I don't understand the argument of "just because everyone in baseball has decided this is the best way to do things doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't do what's best." I do understand the argument that the FO has failed to provide Rocco with adequate talent on his pitching staff for 2 straight years, though. Ross Stripling had a shutout through 6.1 yesterday for a Blue Jays team who is doing everything they can to make the playoffs and they pulled him with just 72 pitches thrown. I don't like that either, but it just goes to show that this is what the best strategy for getting outs is. I think we should all be able to agree that all 30 front offices have a better understanding of this than the collective TD crowd. It doesn't mean it's good for baseball, and doesn't mean any of us should like it, but I don't get ripping Rocco for doing what the collective baseball industry has determined is the smart thing to do. He let Berrios go when he was here. He let Maeda go when he was healthy and dominating. He let Gray and Ryan both go when they were good and healthy early. But now the rotation isn't good and healthy, and the pen isn't all that good either. He let Gray go a little longer the other day and Gray immediately allowed 2 base runners in a 3-0 game. It's a problem for baseball and I hope the rules they're putting in place get teams to change their strategies, but I don't expect it anytime soon, unfortunately. I still have no idea why the Twins don't use more long relievers to eat multiple innings instead of going with 1 inning guys all the time. That is something that differs from a number of teams, and I think is the bigger problem. They use their starters the same way everyone does. There's just aren't that good. But then they rely on 1 inning guys to go 4 innings every night and that's the problem I think we should be more upset about. Use Sands, Sanchez, Smeltzer, whoever for 2 or 3 innings a couple times a week and save the 1 inning guys some wear and tear. They can't be any worse than Pagan for an inning.

Really? Dylan Bundy and his ERA of 4.76 is the hill you want to die on? By all means. Ignore the 8 inning start in there. But, yes, they should definitely let the guy with a 4.27 FIP (a stat I know you love) and an ERA of almost 5 really stretch it out because he's clearly earned that. I mean you highlighted a game where he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and you're going to sell that as a game he should've been given another inning or 2? Shoot, the game on 5/25 they brought him out for the 6th with a 2-0 lead and he promptly gave up a homerun and another base runner (tying run if you're not following along). Yeah, they maybe pulled him early in his first 3 starts of the season. So we're supposed to be real upset about them pulling Dylan freaking Bundy early in his first 3 starts of the year after a shortened spring training and 1 other start on August 13th? That's the hill you want to die on? By all means, have at it. Not to mention we actually pointed out in this very thread yesterday that both the Orioles and Blue Jays, in the same game between playoff race contenders, pulled starting pitchers with shutouts going after 6 and 6.1 innings pitched. Voth was at 86 pitches and Stripling was at 72. That's not a typo, the Blue Jays pulled Stripling after 6.1 shutout innings and 72 pitches. But by all means tell me again how nobody else does what the Twins do. Please. Tell me that those teams are doing things drastically different than the Twins.

Dylan Bundy, yes, the Dylan Bundy with a 4.76 ERA, had an 8 inning start this year because the Twins were winning the game by something in the 9-0 ballpark (won the game 11-1). So, no, the plan is not the plan "no matter what." The Twins score 3 or fewer runs in almost half their games. They don't have a whole bunch of 9-0 ballpark games to let guys go wild in. Again, if complete games are your measuring stick you're going to be disappointed in every major league team. They just don't happen anymore. 22 this entire season by any pitchers on any team. Something that hasn't even happened once per team by the time you're halfway through August can't be your measuring stick. As people have shown over and over, the Twins are not far off from the MLB norm in managing starters. They simply aren't. 2 hitters less per start is a problem? 1 out fewer than most every team per start is a problem? This is how baseball does things now. It simply is. We don't have to like it, but we certainly should accept that top guys get to go as long as they can, middle tier guys get a little extra leash into the 3rd time through a lineup, and bottom tier guys get basically no wiggle room once the lineup comes up a 3rd time on any team in major league baseball. The Twins haven't had many top tier guys. Already showed they let Berrios go. In 2020 when Maeda was a stud he was averaging over 6 innings a start. They let good pitchers pitch. They just haven't had many.

We're all just guessing. What bet do you want to make on Correa opting out cuz I'll take it? If Correa isn't hurt between now and the end of the season he's opting out. Opting out doesn't mean he won't be back, but he's not picking up his player option. Yes, 35.1 million is a lot of money. You seem to have just ignored the rest of my paragraph there where I explained why he'll opt out. Because both 35.1 and 70 are way less than 300 or 250 or 200 or 150 or 100. And he will get somewhere between 100 and 325 million guaranteed dollars if he opts out after the year. He doesn't care about the AAV, he cares about the contract total. And he'll get way more than 70 from somebody.

But you type faster!

No, not everybody does it the way the Twins do, but they're not far off from the vast majority of teams. Orioles v Jays Bal: Voth 6 innings, 86 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled Tor: Stripling 6.1 innings, 72 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled Yeah, that sounds almost exactly like 2 pitcher lines the Twins would have. Reds v Phillies Cin: Lodolo 7 innings, 98 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled Phi: Suarez 7 innings, 95 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled Eh, Rocco probably pulls each guy after 6. But to be fair the Reds aren't playing for anything so letting their young arm get another inning isn't quite the same as Rocco pulling a guy in a pennant race. Which is the same response I have for Lynch. Different goals for the Reds and Royals than there are for the Twins right now. That Orioles v Jays game kind of proves my point, though. 2 teams in the playoff hunt pulled their pitchers with fewer than 90 and fewer than 80 pitches in the middle of shutouts. The boards on TD would be lit up calling for Rocco's head if he did that and they'd be claiming other teams wouldn't do such a thing. When they clearly do.

That explanation makes a lot of sense and seems awfully reasonable to me. Jose Berrios was on pace for 200 innings in 33 starts with the Twins last year before he was traded. Complete games aren't a stat that means much of anything anymore. There's been 22 all of this season with only 2 guys having more than 1. That's my point in this thread, though. The philosophy isn't "not letting ANY starter go deep," it's not letting THESE starters go deeper because they aren't that good. Gray and Ryan were both getting 6 or 7 innings a start at the beginning of the year when they got off to a great start. Now they've both had IL stints and haven't been as good when on the mound so they aren't getting 6 or 7 innings consistently. Gray went back out for the 7th last night and immediately allowed 2 base runners in a 3 run game. When is Rocco supposed to take him out? After he gives up runs in the 7th? The runs scored definitely effects the pitcher usage, but I don't see how that should change our feelings on the organizational philosophy of pitcher usage. To me it just means they need to get better at scoring runs. I don't love the strategy. I miss the days of guys going 7,8,9 innings in a start. I want the Twins to get more guys that are good enough to do that and let them do it. I don't see anyone on the team, or at the top of the system, who has that ability so my hope is a big FA signing (not holding my breath).

It will be very interesting to see what they do with him the next couple years and how seriously they seem to consider putting him back in the rotation. I hope the idea isn't written off yet.

Not misleading. Correa is going to opt out of 35.1 million next year. Not with the intent of getting 36 million a year moving forward, but with the intent of getting more than 70 million in his total deal. The contracts in MLB are guaranteed and the total amount is what the players are playing for. Yes, guys who are better get more. And they're also the ones who teams allow to go longer. That's kind of the entire point here. The Twins aren't doing anything outrageous with starter usage, or "hurting careers." The guys they have would be used more or less the same on almost every team. It's provable as Gray and Mahle are both being used the same as they were with Cincy. Starter innings across the league are down. Drastically. The league is putting in rules to attempt to force teams to get them back up. But the compensation for starting pitching isn't going down. That's the point. Bean argued the Twins not letting Gray, etc. go longer is "hurting their careers" because they won't earn as much when it simply isn't true. If Gray were Scherzer and the Twins were still pulling him after 5/6/7 innings and less than 90 pitches then that claim could be made. But Gray isn't Scherzer.

There were 17 pitchers that threw 180+ innings last year. Only 27 even cracked 170 innings. Twins also had Berrios 121.2 innings after 20 starts last year. So roughly 200 over 33 starts again. If you go pre-covid 2020 there were 32 in 2019 that made it to 180 innings. 49 made it to 170. Twins had 1 of 15 guys who reached 200 innings that year. The Twins let good pitchers pitch. The league isn't full of guys going 180+ innings anymore. And pitchers are still getting paid. The Twins aren't hurting careers. Their management of Berrios didn't seem to stop him from getting paid.

I agree that there seems to be a real lack of ability to adjust the plan in season, and it's a real problem. Why are we using just the last 2 years as the frame of reference? The FO and Rocco have all been here for at least twice that time. I think the last 2 years have emphasized that they're more cautious than the average team with bringing pitchers back from the 2020 shortened season, but we shouldn't ignore previous seasons just because of these last 2. In 2019 those 307 homeruns came in the same season as the Twins starters throwing the 6th most innings of any staff in baseball. 6th most. Rocco and the FO clearly didn't mind letting pitchers go a little further back then. So what's changed? As for Gray, he hasn't been going deeper than 5 innings per start for 3 years now. He uses a ton of pitches and is largely to blame for many of his short starts this year. He was basically right at 5 innings a start in 2020 and 2021 with the Reds and that's where he is now. And he goes on the IL every year. He's not some workhorse being used totally wrong this year.

My argument would be that it's the "and/or" part of your description that is the problem. If the Twins were running out the Mets or Dodgers rotation you wouldn't be seeing so many 5 inning starts. But they aren't. They're running out a bunch of #3-5s and a 2 (Mahle). But, yes, all is probably too strong of a word. Vast majority is more accurate. And, to be fair to me, I said "basically every," which is basically true. The Mariners let their guys go. They have 5 guys averaging 24 or more batters faced (including newly acquired Luis Castillo). There are 33 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings and are averaging at least 24 batters faced. 3 of them have fewer than 21 starts. Max Scherzer, Luis Castillo, and Johnny Cueto. The Twins have no pitchers who have made 21 starts. Bundy and Archer are at 20 starts each, and I don't think there's many games that we could argue they should've been left in longer. Ryan at 19 starts is at 22.16 batters faced/start and he has an ERA of 3.92. Gray is at 18 starts and 20.4 batters faced with an ERA of 3.11. I think Gray has a few games where there's a legit complaint that he wasn't left in longer. He also has a few where his batters faced were low because he threw a ton of pitches. The Twins only have 1 other starter who has double digit starts on the year (Smeltzer with 12). That means the Twins have had to go to a number of minor league guys and prospects. Not exactly "elite" guys who you want to just throw in there and treat like Max Scherzer. Of guys with 100 innings pitched and an ERA of 3.92 or higher (Ryan's ERA) there are 15 pitchers in baseball who average even 1 more hitter a game than Joe Ryan does. 4 guys average at least 2 more hitters a start than him and their ERAs are 4.18, 4.48, 4.82, and 5.08. Not exactly poster boys for letting guys go deeper. And 22 to 24 batters per start is 2 batters. Not even 1 inning if they get both of them out. Are we really arguing that 2 hitters a game would make people happier with Rocco and this strategy? Gray's extra 2 hitters yesterday in the 7th weren't a great argument for him getting to face more guys.

In game, yes. The FO isn't calling down to the dugout and telling him what to do. But he meets with FO staff literally everyday. They have every opportunity in the world to tell him to leave guys in longer. Members of the FO are involved in the pitching usage planning. They provide the numbers and work on the general game plan day to day, week to week, month to month, and season to season. My biggest thing on the Rocco v FO blame for pitching usage is that if the idea is to fire Rocco so pitchers are used different people are going to be disappointed. The FO believes in this usage. They'd hire another manager who also believes in this strategy. Rocco gets to be the front man for things as he's the manager, but this is 100% a front office strategy and as long as they're there the general usage will be the same. Game to game decisions may be slightly different, but we're not going to start seeing guys throwing 7 innings every night if they fire Rocco.

You have some data to back this up? It sure doesn't feel like pitcher compensation is going down. Alex Cobb threw 93.1 total innings last year (just over 5 innings a start) while having an ERA under 4 (3.76) for the first time since 2017 and just got a $20 million contract this offseason at the age of 34. Anthony DeSclafani averaged less than 5.5 innings a start last year while going sub-4 era for just the 2nd time since 2016 and got $36 million. Yusei Kikuchi has never had an ERA under 4.41 and averaged 5.4 innings per start last year and got $36 million. James Paxton has never made 30 starts in a season in his career and he got $10 million after pitching to just over 5.1 innings a start back in 2020 and missing basically all of last season. As has already been pointed out, Sonny Gray hasn't been significantly over 5 innings a start in 3 years and has made 30 starts in a season once since 2015. The Twins aren't hurting Sonny Gray's career, his inability to stay healthy and throw innings for 7 freaking years is hurting his career.

So you think Rocco's bosses disagree with how he does his job yet they've kept him around for 4 seasons and are watching him make decisions they disagree with while their team loses their lead in the division? I wish any bosses I've ever had would let me do whatever I wanted and not fire me when I was costing the business while making decisions they disagree with. Nice bosses. He's not a "puppet manager." He believes in the same ideas as the FO. Sometimes the simplest answer is the right answer. The FO hired Rocco because his baseball strategies and philosophies match their strategies and philosophies. Not many FOs out there who would hire a manager who wants to do things drastically different than they do. Leads to a team being built by the FO to be used 1 way while the manager uses them another. Not good for winning. The Vikings wouldn't build an offense designed to throw the ball well and hire a coach who wants to run the ball all the time. And if they did they'd all get fired.

Basically every MLB team is handling their pitchers the same way. The elite guys get to go as deep as they can in a start. The middle tier guys get to go 2+ times through and then it depends on the game situation that determines if they're given more leash (like last night Gray may get a chance to go deeper in the 7th if the score weren't 3-0 at the time). The lower tier starters get almost no leash to go past 2 times through the order unless they have a big lead (Bundy in his 8 inning start earlier this year). FAs chase the money almost exclusively, though. All this talk of "FAs won't want to come here cuz of X, Y, or Z" is mostly fans saying they don't like certain things about their team, or making themselves feel better about not getting big name FAs. If the Twins are the highest bidder there are very few guys who will turn them down. The Twins don't get a boost by being on the coast or by a guy's horse ranches (MadBum) if the money is the same so they have to have the highest bid. But they aren't losing FAs by pulling mid-tier pitchers at 90+ pitches in the 7th inning after giving up 2 straight hits and bringing the tying run to the plate. Shoot, Joe Ryan had 3 of his first 4 starts this year be at least 6 innings. The Twins aren't blindly pulling everyone at the same time. If you're good the Twins let you pitch. Problem is their starters came back to earth after their great start.

Fyi, the medical people say a 10 day IL stint would just mean Buxton didn't play at all for 10 days and his knees are in more or less the same condition they would be if he DHed a handful of times, had a day off, and played CF a couple times. 10 days off isn't going to get him back in CF more frequently is the moral of the story coming from medical people.

If we're still relying on 34 year old Sonny Gray in 2024 I think there's bigger problems and there should probably be a new FO in place. Winder, Ober, Ryan, Paddack all still under team control in 2024. With Balazovic, Sands, Enlow, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Henriquez already on the 40-man, and SWR, Prielipp, Raya, Canterino (I think he's in the pen, to be fair), and Varland types who should be debuting in the next 2 years. Not to mention way higher upside guys on the market than Gray the next 2 offseasons. A guy like Mahle being extended and still around in 2024 would make sense, but if they haven't been able to turn at least 4 of the 15 guys I listed into major league starters for 2024, or brought in a better arm than Gray, the team is in far worse trouble than Sonny Gray being upset that he's averaging basically the exact same innings per start in 2022 as he did in 2021 and 2020. Not to mention that he'd likely struggle greatly to find any other team in Major League Baseball that would be handling him drastically different than the Twins by 2024.

I mean it's provably false that Rocco has that hard and fast rule. 3 of Ryan's first 4 starts this very season he went 6 or 7 innings. He's been awful since his COVID IL stint and now he's being treated like the average to slightly below average starter he is right now. Sonny Gray went 6, 7, 6 innings before his first IL stint this year. Mahle has gone 6 innings in both of his starts with the Twins. Even when he gave up 3 bombs in his first start. No, Bundy, Archer, Smeltzer types aren't seeing the lineup a 3rd time in a close game. There have been a few times where I thought he should've let a guy go another inning, but it's most certainly not a hard and fast rule for every starter the Twins have. And, as I pointed out before, that 2019 rotation had the 6th most innings pitched in all of baseball. If his rule was strictly "no starter sees the order a 3rd time" they simply couldn't have had the 6th most starter innings in baseball. I agree Pagan should've been DFA'd long ago, but, again, Rocco isn't to be blamed for using the guys on his roster. He simply can't go out there and never use Pagan. It's not reasonable. He needs to use every guy on his roster, so as long as Pagan is on there he's going to have to pitch some. If Duran and Lopez held the lead in Anaheim Pagan never even sees the field to give up that HR. So suggesting Rocco needed to be saved from using him after already having used his big guns who blew the lead seems like some revisionist history.