chpettit19

Donaldson has a 133 OPS+ (same as last year, and even higher than in Atl the year before). 125 wRC+ (slightly below where he was the last 2 years). His bat is why they'd trade for him, not his glove. He doesn't need to bounce back in terms of the production they'd be looking for, his contract is just too high so the Twins would have to eat a bunch of money most likely.

For more context Celestino and Wander Javier were both more highly regarded international prospects the year he was signed and subsequently traded. He's the anomaly of all anomalies when it comes to trades. Had never played a game in America before he was traded and turns into this. Nobody in the Padres' organization were predicting he'd become a top 10 player in the sport.

Oh I'm certainly not predicting they move him. No idea if that happens or not. Just saying his value is just as high as it would be in a normal year and, if the expectations are reasonable, they should be able to get a very good return for him and the concerns Tom presented shouldn't hinder that. I have no idea if they have reasonable expectations of a return or not. Although asking for sky high prices right now seems smart. If the Mets are the only team making a real attempt to trade for an impact player right now you have to ask for crazy high prices. Then adjust as the deadline gets closer and teams start feeling the heat more. It's why most deals don't get done until the 11th hour. The deadline itself motivates and forces teams to put their truly best offer out there. Hopefully Falvine has realistic expectations, and also don't settle for scraps simply to get something.

Berrios is likely the most in demand player on the market this season. His extra year of control at a very cheap-for-his-production rate makes him incredibly valuable on the trade block. With every team needing more arms I'd argue it puts the Twins in an even better place than usual (for him specifically). What team would rather have a AAA pitcher for this season than Berrios? I don't see anyone giving up multiple high end AAA, or AA, arms for him, but I'd certainly think any contender would be happy to part with one AAA, or AA, arm for him. How good that arm is would determine the rest of the package. Maybe you can get another high level bat, or maybe its a handful of lower level, "lottery ticket" type guys. But, when it comes to Berrios specifically, I think his value is just as high as any other year. The rest of the Twins' pieces are a different story and they're probably looking to bring back a bunch of low level fliers for them. But that's still the move to make in a lost season. Why not take on half a dozen toolsy, but raw, low A guys for players that won't be with the team next year anyways? Just adds to the chance of having another wave of prospects in 5 years. The Rays seem to do pretty well with constantly stocking their system with great athletes and arms by never losing a ML player for nothing.

36 homeruns tied him for 18th in baseball in homeruns in 2019. Feels a little extreme to say they're not very valuable. They don't make him a superstar on their own (which I've never seen anyone on these forums claim him to be), but they were, and are, certainly valuable. If your 6,7,8,9 hole hitter (where Kepler belongs in a good lineup) is hitting 36 jacks a year you're in very good position as an offense.

Schwarber is a slugger over a hitter, but the rest of them are very good all around hitters. Story will likely be the #1 FA this offseason and is currently the #1 trade target. Lindor just got paid a boatload. Goldschmidt is a perennial MVP candidate (although he's not the same player anymore, getting old). Abreu won the AL MVP last "season." Castellanos is hit over power, but also brings the boom pretty good. A team with those 6 at the top of their order is sitting very well in terms of all around hitting and power.

For what it's worth, wRC+ (just easier for me to look up, but pretty in line with OPS+ stats) from 2019 had Kepler at 121. Tied with Story, Castellanos, and Schwarber. That's 35, 27, and 38 HR guys. Goldschmidt hit 34 HRs and had a 116 wRC+. Abreu 33 and 116. Lindor 32 and 115.

There being no minor league season last year made their lives way harder. If the plan from 2018, 2019, and going into 2020 was that the arms they were developing were on schedule to start arriving in 2020/2021 it's pretty hard to change gears when 2020 gets shutdown. Every major prospect ranking, scouting, whatever outlet had 5 or 6 minor leaguers set to debut this year for the Twins when they put out their reports going into 2020. It wasn't unreasonable for the Twins to have been planning on that to happen. So having Berrios and bringing in Maeda while extending Pineda looked like a solid, if unspectacular top 3 of veterans and then you get to fill in with your up and coming arms mixed with backend veteran types. They, reportedly, had looked to bring in Darvish, Ryu, MadBum, etc. on longer term deals, but couldn't get them. So they traded for Maeda. Then they went into 2020 with Rich Hill type signings as a veteran on a short deal that can be replaced by a young arm as they become ready. That was a very logical move going into 2020. Then the season was lost. Now they have to go into 2021 coming off a season of lost revenue and having their plan blown up and try to adjust. I liked the Happ signing, Shoemaker seemed reasonable as a guy to get a couple months out of. With Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer there to provide 5 guys for 2 spots when trying to get 900 more innings pitched this year compared to last year. Then MLB pushed the minor league season back a month and delays our prospects even more. (I'm still not sure why they did that) But planning around your arms starting to show up in 2020 a little and the full wave starting to be ready in 2021 looked more than reasonable at the time. They signed contracts and built their budget around that idea. Then 2020 goes the way it does and everything is thrown for a loop. I don't think they had much hope of going to the Pohlads and telling them they need an extra 30m to sign pitchers because the 2020 season shut down right after the Pohlads lost a ton of money. The Pohlads did right by their employees by paying them through the pandemic, but weren't going to boost payroll to make up for the delay in prospect timelines when they just lost 10s of millions of dollars. All of this is to say that the plan to have arms from the system start taking over this year wasn't just hatched during or after the 2020 season. It had likely been the plan for years and signing someone like Donaldson for big money was done with the thought that they'd have a number of prospects on minimum contracts coming up and contributing. When the prospect timelines got pushed back (due to things out of the team or prospect's control) it blew up their whole plan (I obviously don't know this was actually their plan, but it would've been mine).

Give me a fiery, outspoken, emotional player like Donaldson over the calm, silent Mauer type any day. Not saying the Mauer types don't care or have passion, but (with no data to back this up) the teams that seem to show up in late October these days seem to have a great deal of personality and fiery guys. Give me a guy calling out cheaters over the guys calling out "you're trying too hard, unwritten rules" any day. I much prefer Donaldson calling out the "sticky stuff" cheaters, especially when he throws Giolito's spin rate numbers out there as evidence, to Dozier crying that the Orioles bunted during a no hitter when it was a close game. Donaldson is brash and not looking to win any popularity contests. His comments yesterday made me like him even more and switched me from "trade Donaldson to get out from under his deal" to "give him a Bobby Bonilla deal for life." It's unfortunate the team (*pitching) is performing the way it is this year and undercutting Donaldson's words, but it's about time we had an "I'm here to win, not cater to the other team's feelings" player around here. I have a far bigger problem with guys on the Twins crying about people swinging 3-0 against our 3rd string catcher in a blowout than I do with someone calling out cheaters and trying to pump his team up in their last-chance-to-save-the-season series.

Whitefield isn't on the 40 man. By my count there isn't an opening there (43 guys on it with 3 on 60 day IL). So to call him up they'd have to take someone off. Not sure he's worth losing someone at this point with the way injuries have shredded the roster (and to be fair most 40 mans are full of IL guys right now). I think he may be a guy who gets another taste in August or September after they open up some 40 man spots with trades.

The only way to determine if an individual team has a self scouting issue is to compare them against what all the other teams do. I'd be shocked if you couldn't find 3 similar situations that played out with every other major league team. And, as others have already pointed out, Baddoo not being protected doesn't automatically equal them missing on their assessment of him, it was a 40 man roster problem. Cave over Wade doesn't even necessarily mean the Twins valued Cave drastically, or even at all, over Wade. It could mean the Giants wanted Wade and not Cave. The Twins very well could have preferred Wade, but the Giants insisted on Wade and the Twins didn't see that big of a difference and really needed bullpen arms so gave up Wade. To claim the Twins have a self scouting problem it'd take a whole lot of research on every roster move of every front office in baseball. Simply picking out 3 players where things didn't go well and using them as your data pool isn't showing any real information beyond those 3 decisions not turning out well for the Twins.

You've written Sabato off after 47 career games? Dang. Tough room.

They wouldn't give him that now, but if he's healthy the next 2 years and putting up Trout numbers they'd pay him a ton. His speed separates him from everyone else, but he's so much faster than other superstar hitters I think he can lose quite a few steps and still be great in CF. The question, to me, is how well he can actually perform over a whole season if he's healthy. If the last couple years are showing the real Buxton talent wise then he's Mike Trout 2.0 like he was hyped as coming up. High budget teams that print money will throw stupid money at him. I don't have any idea if they've offered him a straight up 5 year deal or not. None of us do. But he's so close to free agency now that any deal he signs has to be pretty close to what he feels he can get on the market. Maybe 5/100 is all he can get, but he has no reason not to test it out and see if he can get 5/125, or 3/100, or 6/150, or whatever else. If he's worth 5/100 right now with his injury history he's still worth 5/100 next year even if he's hurt again. And then he gets to pick where he plays and has a chance at more than the 5/100. Does he risk getting less than that? Yes. But there's also a chance he gets more than that. To me there's just no reason for him, or Berrios, to sign any deal that isn't their expectation for what they'll get on the open market. They're too close to free agency now. They've bet on themselves this long, why stop now?

1. He's going to need to lose way more than a step or 2 to have to move to a corner. And if he does then he's Mookie Betts who just signed a 12 year deal. 2. Most players go into free agency in very different circumstances so of course they sign long term deals. But there's also plenty of "make good" or "pillow" deals done every season. Why would he get 20 per year in 2025 and 2026 instead of 25 in the year-to-year scenario? I'm not saying he goes year to year for the rest of his career. I'm saying he has no incentive to sign any long term deals right now. Unless he thinks he'll be injured every year for the rest of his career. He has been the best player in baseball when healthy the last couple years. Making his skill level worth in the 30-35m range, not 20-25 range. It's "fair" to give him the 20-25 based on his injuries, but he has no incentive to do that on a long term deal this close to free agency. If he were going to take a deal like 5/100 he would have done it already. His mindset, and that of his representation, isn't "I'm going to always be hurt so I'm only worth 20 a year." His mindset is "I'm the best player on the planet and I'm not going to take far less value than that because I got hit in the arm with a fastball." He has no incentive to lock himself into a long term deal. Sure, could certainly offer him a Stanton type deal with some opt-outs in there. But those numbers would have to be higher than 5/100 as well. You want him to guarantee himself 100m so he doesn't risk ending up with about 80m. He can lock himself in until he's 33 when you seem to think he won't be elite anymore, and maybe even have to move to a corner and his worth will be drastically less. So he's certainly not getting an unreal payday after 33. Likely not even another 5/100 deal then. So he'd make less than 200m over the rest of his career. I'm suggesting he takes the 10ish mil arb next year then take as much money as possible over short stints (year to year, Bauer type 3 year high AAV deal, whatever). So he takes 10 next year. Likely gets 25 his first year of free agency whether he plays a whole year next year or not (somebody will take the chance to get him in their building). Assume another injury shortened season that one and he's still getting 20m (he's got 2.7 or 3 WAR in 27 games this year, he's worth a ton even in a few games). Another injury shortened year gets him down to 15m. 10m the next year when he still can't play a whole year. So 80m over the next 5 years by going year to year and never ever staying healthy and seeing his worth decline each year. So he lost out on 20m. Not ideal. But if he goes year to year, or short term after hitting the open market, and stays healthy for a year. Or 2. Or 3 he signs a massive deal that locks him in for the rest of his career. Likely not until he's 40 like Betts just got, but 37 or 38 probably. At 30m a year (Betts money) for 5-8 years he's looking at 150-240 on top of the money he made in the short term deals. Yes, he takes on risk by not signing a deal that's below his talent level market. But that risk doesn't outweigh the chance to see what he can get on the open market. If 5/100 is his market worth why sign that deal now? He'd still get it after next year. Or would next year be the straw that broke the camels back? Teams would then suddenly say "oh he's too injury prone?" This year they'd pay that, but not next year? Makes no sense. He's too close to free agency to give up his chance to see what he can get. If he wins the MVP next year somebody would be willing to pay him a 3/100 Bauer deal I'd bet.

It's not about it being a fair deal. It's about his incentive to lock himself in for 5 years. Of course he's not going to maintain a .370 average for a whole season, but he's always been one of the most talented players in baseball and he's now playing like it. Why would he be willing to lock himself into a deal for only 100-125 over the next 5 years right now? His talent says he's worth well over that monetary output. His injury history says he's worth way less. The only incentive he would have to limit his financial gain at this point is to protect himself against further injury and never getting a huge contract. Why would he sign for 5 years? Why not go year to year? You don't think LA or NY or Boston would sign him for 1 year 25m? Or do a Bauer type 3 year deal? If Buxton believes he can stay healthy at all over the next 5 years he has no reason to limit himself by signing a 5 year 100-125 deal. None. That's the point. Should the Twins offer that as a fair deal? Absolutely. If they can get him to sign for that they absolutely should. But why would he sign that? He's a year away from free agency. The Twins can't overpay pre-arb and arb years anymore to lower the cost of his free agent years. There's no incentive for him to give up free agent years when he's 1 year away. No agent should let him sign that deal between now and when he hits free agency.

You're suggesting if he comes back in August of 2021 and completes the rest of this season, then stays healthy all of 2022 and continues playing at this level (in the argument for best player in baseball) he still maxes out at 5/100 or 5/125? Maybe you're correct. But that's certainly not the approach any agent worth anything would be telling him. And it's likely not what he's thinking. Even if that's how things shake out and that's the best he can get, what incentive does he have to sign that now? I find it almost impossible to believe him and his agent believe that's the top of his market. 8 to 10 years probably isn't realistic based on his injury history, but I could certainly see LA, Boston, NY throwing a Bauer type deal at him. 3 years of insane AAV if he has a healthy season. Bauer had 1.5 incredibly productive years after being a slightly above average pitcher and got 45m this year. Why wouldn't Buxton want to try to get the same thing? To lock himself into 100m over 5 years at this point would be him signaling he doesn't think he's ever going to stay healthy. If he's given up like that I don't want him on this team anyways. He doesn't seem like he has and I don't think he'll go into negotiations with that mindset. Being 1 year away from free agency means the player should only sign a deal that gives away their chance to test their market if they get a deal they think is at the top of their market. There is no incentive for him to limit himself to 5/100, whether you think it's fair or not. He's not looking for fair. And shouldn't be. He's looking to maximize his worth and have the chance to pick where he plays. As he should.

The $10m came from pretty widely accepted estimates of his likely arbitration number. And every team in the league chose not to claim him and have to pay him that. So there's certainly "facts" to back up that narrative. As for Kirilloff and Larnach not being his replacement, that's a stretch in facts for you to stick to your narrative. Is your argument that the Twins had no plans to call either of them up this year? Kirilloff and Larnach were always the replacement plan for Rosario. And it is undoubtedly working out quite well as they're both hitting better than him, even with his recent supernova hot streak.

You wouldn't consider Kirilloff or Larnach as replacements for Rosario?

For what it's worth Ramirez is 78th percentile in sprint speed, so he's certainly not slow.

What incentive does Buxton have to sign a 5/100 deal? If he signs that deal it's because he's given into the idea that he'll be hurt every year of his career. If I'm his agent I'm telling him the Twins can pay you 200+ now or we go year to year to establish health and superstardom then sign a mega deal. I can't imagine Buxton believes he'll suffer fastball to the head concussions every year, or fastball to the hand broken bones every year (for goodness sake quit lunging at first trying to beat out every groundball and save your hip from being jammed into the socket 5 times a week). Maybe you can talk him into a 2 year deal at 30 mil? But why would he give up his prime years for 100m instead of playing out next season with the faith that he can stay healthy, win an MVP and get 10 years $300m?

Arraez is my favorite player on the Twins right now so I (selfishly) hope they don't shop him, but certainly would understand (and support) them taking a deal that improves the team. If he's a .400 Slugging guy (was .439 and .402 the last 2 years) he's likely a 110-120 OPS+ guys from year to year. That all comes down to how many doubles he can bang out really. I just think he provides such a good balance to the current day power, power, and more power lineups that teams like to throw out there (Twins especially). It's refreshing to see a guy who seemingly hates to strikeout and battles every pitch of every at bat. In a perfect world where everyone hits their ceiling (and stays on the field) having an Arraez, Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach top 5 of the order for the next 5 or 6 years sounds like heaven to me.

Found this to be an interesting argument/discussion point so wanted to look up some numbers (baseball reference was my source for this data). Batters faced per season by Berrios from 2016-today: 281, 616, 797, 842, 271, 338. Total: 3145 Plate appearances per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 331, 511, 94, 295, 135, 110. Total: 1476 Fielding "Chances" (putouts + assists + errors) per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 249, 400, 70, 224, 105, 71. Total: 1119 PA and Chances total for Buxton: 2595 So Berrios has influenced 3145 "events" on the field since his debut and Buxton has influenced 2595. Don't know what you, or anyone else, wants to draw from that, but I found it interesting. *Obviously a very basic way of looking at this concept that doesn't include Berrios fielding data or Buxton steals, effect on positioning by other fielders because of his range, etc. etc. etc.

I have no data to back this up, but it feels to me like players of Arraez's skillset are worth more to the team they come up with than they are on the trade market. I can't imagine anyone is throwing a top 100 prospect at the Twins for Arraez. Generally speaking the top 100 guys are guys with a ceiling well above Arraez's and, especially this day and age, teams need to feel they're getting All Star type MLB players in return for giving up a big time prospect with All Star upside. Every player should always be on the block. If the Angels are offered a 3 team trade that returns them Tatis Jr, Vlad Jr, Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah, and Mackenzie Gore for Trout they should take it. Arraez is by no means "untouchable," but what would a realistic package be in return for him? He's a 1 tool player, but he's exceptional at that 1 tool, and it's the hardest tool to find at that skill level. That makes him incredibly useful, and also not worth much on the trade market. If you're trading a controllable young asset who's proven to be an everyday player I think you need to get back more than a team would be willing to give up for Arraez. If they get an offer that improves the team they should absolutely take it. I just don't think that its likely.

If 5/100 gets either of them signed they should do it. If they both will agree to 5/100 they should sign both. I find it hard to believe either would agree to it 1 year from free agency, though. I think the Wheeler contract is probably what Berrios is looking for and thinking he can get on the open market (maybe he thinks he can get more?). So I doubt he signs for 5/100 this close to free agency. The Twins likely have to match, or get very close to, what he feels his max market value is to get him to skip the chance to find out what he can get. And Buxton seems like an incredibly confident young man who's willing to bet on himself. His value when healthy is 35m+ a year. Maybe he's at the point where he's starting to believe he'll never be healthy and he'd take the 5/100 just to ensure himself 100m, but if he's convinced it's just bad luck and he can stay healthy I can't imagine he's taking that deal. Why wouldn't he play next year on a 1 year deal if he's convinced he can stay healthy? Go out and win an MVP next year and take home 300m from the Red Sox or Yankees instead of 100m from the Twins this year. If I'm Buxton I'm not signing any long term deal coming off an injury. I'll do 1 year deals until I string together a full season or 2. Somebody will pay him 20m on a 1 year deal. If I'm him I'm taking that kind of deal until I establish my health and then taking home 35m a year on a longer deal.

2020 being such a crazy season and the effects it's having on 2021 make it hard for me to say they're failures at this point and should be replaced. Not only the complete loss of a MiLB season last year, but the jump in innings needing to be covered this year just isn't something that we've ever seen in the game (self inflicted lost seasons from CBA arguments isn't the same). I firmly believe we'd be starting to see the "pitching pipeline" (not that they'd all come up and be great, but we'd have a better read on if there's real MLB arms in the system) at this point if 2020 had been a normal year. They went into that season, I believe, looking to make it through that season with a mix of veterans doing their thing and rookies getting test runs as injury replacements. Then they planned to be able to hand a spot or 2 in the rotation and pen to youngsters in 2021. Instead they got nothing from rookies last year because the world shut down. Now they're seeing their top arms go down with arm issues 1 after the other and are delaying their timeline once again. I just don't know how to assess a FO with all these factors. Are the injuries something we can put on the FO? I don't think so, but maybe. I think they've earned another year to see what the prospect arms look like. Definitely feel there needs to be some adjustments with how they're assessing major league arms, but I don't think that is a great indicator of their ability to set up a development system for pitching. 2 different things in my view. But if we get to this point a year from now and there's no sign of an arm better than Ober (and I like Ober, but they need to develop better arms than that if they want sustained success) arriving and sticking in the bigs I think it's fair to start questioning if they're the right people for the job. Just too many crazy circumstances the last year+ for me to say they've failed to this point.