chpettit19

Teams don't have guys who close 100% of save opportunities, but they most definitely have guys who go back to back days and are used for virtually every 1 run save opportunity. If their closer threw 25 pitches to close a 1 run lead the night before and now they have a 3 run lead with the 6-7-8 hitters coming up in the 9th they use someone else. Teams that go "closer by committee" tend to not have great closers and are playing the matchup game. The Twins have tried to combine the matchup game and an everyday closer the last few years. Limiting your closer to no back to back games in that situation leads to a lot of problems with trying to determine bullpen usage during 162 games. Rogers can be great in his profile, sure. But his profile isn't a closer's profile. That's my point. If I can't use you back to back games you're not a closer. If I'm in a September series against Cleveland and we're tied for the division lead and the first game we have a 1 run lead in the 9th I need to be able to use my closer. If game 2 we then have a 1 run lead in the 9th I need to be able to use my closer again. Rogers not being able to go in game 2 means I need a 2nd closer and at that point I'm simply in "closer by committee" and I don't have a closer, I just have a highly paid reliever. Rogers' ERA spiked on June 2 last season, and basically never came back down before really spiking again in early July and he was basically done as a reliable closer after that. Before June 2 he was used on back to back days 5 times, including 1 three day stretch at the end of April where he was used in all 3 games. 5 times of being used back to back days in the team's first 50 games and that was too much? He was then used back to back days on June 4th and 5th, but wasn't used on back to back days again until June 20th and 21st. Then July 15th and 16th. By then his ERA was over 4 and never really got much below 4 the rest of the year while actually ballooning to over 5 at certain points. That's 8 times of being used back to back days in the teams first 93 games and that was too much for him? I don't think he was as overused in back to back days as you claim. He simply isn't a great closer. Definitely not worth 15 mil a year. And, for the record, Milwaukee didn't even use him as their closer.

If someone wants to give Rogers 3/45 they can have him. I included the breaks for city changes. I gave the exact schedule of the 2022 WS. I didn't say just closing games 6-7 of the WS made you great, I said you need to be able to pitch in 6 games of a 7 game playoff series for me to think you're great. But even if you're counting just closing games 6 and 7 "great" or "elite" or whatever you want to call it Rogers doesn't fit because games 6 and 7 are played on back to back nights. Rogers could throw in 4 games of a playoff series if he can't be used in back to back games. Games 1-2 are back to back. So he can only be used once. Games 3-4-5 are back to back to back. So he could be used for max games 3 and 5. Games 6-7 are back to back. So he can only be used once. In the "perfect" Rogers situation he's used in either game 1 or 2. Then used in games 3 and 5. Then used in 6 or 7. That's 4 games. You're not great if I can't use you in back to back games. It's that simple to me.

I don't think he's going to get a huge deal. I think he's got a very real chance to get multiple years, but a closer you can't use on back to back days isn't a great closer to me. If I can't use you in games 1 and 2 of a playoff series you're not great. With multiple off days in 7 game series you have to be available for 6 games before I call you great. This year the World Series had games Oct 28 and 29, Nov 1, 2, 3, 5 and game 7 was scheduled for the 6th. So games 1 and 2 were back to back. Day off. Games 3, 4, 5 back to back to back. Day off. Games 6 and 7 back to back. If Rogers can't be used in one of game 1 or 2, and then has to pitch games 3 and 5 or just game 4, and then is good for only 1 of games 6 or 7 why would I want him as my closer? At max he's good for 4 games in a 7 game series. No thanks on that closer. I'd absolutely take him back on the Twins, but not as their closer. Middle relief for him with at least 2 other guys that I'd be relying on to be my shutdown guys in the playoffs because they could go 6 or 7 games in a 7 game series.

He's way too far off for me to think he has any sort of real ceiling. He very well may develop nicely into a real piece, but any team willing to take a guy who just hit .246 in A ball can have him as far as I'm concerned. I think you're saying it nicer than me by saying it's low risk that someone would stash him for a year. To me the Rule 5 is mostly nothing. People freaked out when Baddoo got off to a crazy start in 2021, but he then came crashing back to earth for the last 3/4 of that season before being terrible in 2022. Like @Fire Dan Gladden said, the Rule 5 simply doesn't produce great players at any sort of a regular rate. If you can't replace a 65 OPS+ outfielder you lost through Rule 5 you're doomed anyways. I love the idea behind it and it's great for these prospects to get a chance to see a major league field, but there's very, very few that turn out to be real losses to their clubs. The amount of time we spend talking about who to keep and who they'll lose doesn't match the actual impact of Rule 5 drafted players.

If Rogers is getting a multi-year deal I'd stay away, but if they can get him on a 1 year deal I'd take him. I'm sure he's looking for a multiple years, but coming off a brutal second half there's a chance he's stuck with a 1 year "prove it" deal. Worth a call on. Because I'm not sold on Thielbar maintaining his success as he gets deeper into his 30s, and I like Moran, but am not willing to turn a job over to him without competition. If Rogers can be had for a 1 year deal I'd strongly consider it. As for the other 2, I'm fine passing on them both. Didn't want Kimbrel in 2019 for that deal as the signs of decline were already popping up. Robertson is simply too old for me to tie my bullpen hopes to him. I'd take any of the 3 on a cheap 1 year deal with middle relief as their role, but if these are the types of guys they're bringing in to lock down the end of the game I'm going to be quite disappointed.

If he's cheap and they aren't planning on just plugging him in as their everyday closer they should absolutely look at him. As a middle reliever he'd potentially be a very nice fit. We already know he can't go back to back days so I don't want him brought in as some late inning savior, but he could be a very nice lefty piece in the middle of the pen. I'm not sure I agree with the assessment that "San Diego changed the shape of his slider," though. When do you think they made that change? He got there on opening day. I don't think they chucked him in the trackman that day and told him to change the shape of his slider. Then he got off to a great start so I'm guessing they weren't out there telling him to change the shape of his slider in the middle of April when he was dominating. I don't think the San Diego staff told him to change anything. Maybe the reason they were willing to trade him to Milwaukee was because they couldn't get his slider back after he lost it. I think it's just the nature of 90% of relievers that they're finicky and any little thing being off leads to them being bad. It's why they're relievers instead of starters for the most part. Being able to get his slider back may be a nice tweak to try to make if they do re-sign him, though.

Julien and Canterino are the only 2 I'd protect. Maybe Severino. The rest seem to be just dime a dozen prospects. Nothing against them, but I'm not taking up 40-man space for the offseason with guys that could be easily replaced at any time. There's just not much ceiling on anyone beyond the top 2, and ceiling is what I'd want to protect against losing.

First, I think it's unfair to say the pen arms don't know their role. They may not know what inning they're coming in during, but they know what segment of the order they're expected to face and they should be able to follow the game closely enough to know when it's about to be their turn. They're each given scouting reports on the handful of hitters they're expected to get out and should be more than prepared to get those guys out. Second, I think the save is an entirely useless stat, but I do like having a set closer. Your team knowing "the guy" is coming in to shut the door is really helpful. The problem the Twins face is getting someone the team can have confidence in. And one who can throw back to back games without getting shelled the 2nd game (Rogers isn't a great closer cuz of that). Can Lopez be that guy? He was great in the first half and it certainly gives hope that he can be another failed starter turned lights out closer. I'd like to see a 2nd lights out arm to pair with him, though. As insurance and, best case scenario, an 8th-9th inning shutdown duo that turns playoff games into 7 innings games. I'm sure people would like Duran as the closer, or 2nd shutdown arm that I was just talking about, but I like him in his fireman role. I think his ability to come in and clean up and inning or wipe out the top of their order in the highest leverage of situations is a huge weapon. I'd also like him to be used for multiple innings sometimes when one of the other 2 shutdown guys aren't available. I'd keep Duran as the fireman (or future starter) and find 2 shutdown guys to put at the end of the game.

Yeah, I could've stated the Archer and Bundy situations better, but my post was already getting lengthy. Really I was just trying to say they went into the year not expecting those 2 to go deep into games and they appeared to have a plan to use Winder as a piggyback to help with that. But then the whole plan got blown up with injuries and they just never seemed to figure out a new plan so destroyed their already short pen with the short start followed by a whole line of 1 inning relievers nonsense. Agree they can let Ryan and Gray go get as many innings as their performance allows moving forward. I have no expectation that Sonny will even get to 160 IP, but it shouldn't be because they don't want him seeing an order a 3rd time and I don't think that was ever the real concern with him. He's just not durable. Ober is a huge wildcard to me. No idea what to expect out of him or Maeda next year.

I think the challenge at using Gray as our test subject here is that people want to point at his usage as being based on not wanting him to see the order a 3rd time. I think there was some of that, but I think the bigger variable was health. I don't think the Twins went into 2022 saying "let's trade our most recent #1 pick for a guy we think can only go through an order twice." I think his inability (for years now) to stay healthy caused his usage to change from what him and the Twins wanted it to be. Spring training started late for everyone. It started even later for Sonny as he was traded right as it was about to get going and he had life things to deal with with that change and he didn't get the ST innings in that he needed. So his first start was a little short (4.2 innings, 2 earned). His next one he got hurt after 1.2 innings and went on the IL. So now he's had an extra short ST and an IL stint after 1+ starts (April 16th). So when Sonny came back the Twins were understandably cautious with him. 4 innings in his first start back (May 7th) followed by 4.1 innings (May 13th). In his 3rd start back from the IL he went 6 innings. Followed that with a 7 inning start and a 6 inning start. Then went back on the IL (May 29th). So the Twins haven't made it out of the first 2 months of the season and he's hit the IL twice. If someone wants to make the case that he isn't being used long enough in games you point out that through 7 starts he only has 3 that he went into the 6th, but that's ignoring a whole lot of context. After coming back from his 2nd IL stint they were again a little cautious. 5 innings (June 15th) followed by 4 innings (he was bad and gave up 4 runs that game). Then in his 3rd start back from his 2nd IL stint he went 7 innings. His next 3 starts were shorter, but he also wasn't good in them. He wasn't pulled cuz of "analytics" (in quotes cuz it really is analytics that tell you those number of runs in those number of innings is bad, but those are "acceptable" analytics to the anti-analytics crowd) in games where he went 4.2 and gave up 5 earned, or 3.2 innings and 6 earned. The next start after those 3 bad ones he went 6 innings. He was then in basically a 5/6 inning per start range for the rest of the year until he got injured again in September. The problem was that when he had his now infamous statement of frustration about not going deeper into the game it was during his hot stretch and people went back and looked and his innings/start numbers were very low. They ignored the context at the start of the year that caused that and decided the Twins were just using every starter as 2 times through the order guys when it wasn't the case. The Twins had some starters (Bundy and Archer as the obvious examples) that weren't talented enough and the plan from the jump was to use them in shorter stints and piggyback them with Winder. Then Winder got hurt and messed that up. Ryan and Gray were given more leash until Sonny hit the IL twice in his first 7 starts and Ryan got crushed by COVID and wasn't the same guy for the next month after he returned. This fed the "Twins use analytics too much and Rocco has no feel for the game!" crowd by adding some context ignoring data points to their narrative. The Twins had a more individualized plan to start the year, but it gone blown up by injuries. My problem with them is they never adjusted and just went through the rest of the year overusing 1 inning guys and it cost them a lot of games.

He changed his swing mechanics at the end of the year and in the AFL. I'd put him in AAA to start to see how well he can maintain his performance against superior pitching before throwing him into the Twins lineup. I do think he's a very intriguing option as the RH OF bat they need, though. OF/2B utility man to start his career seems like his best bet at some point in 2023.

I don't think the Twins have the farm system to make a trade like this and still have the depth of prospects you need to stay competitive. Hoerner has 3 years of control left, and Adames is the MVP of the Brewers. Neither of those guys would be cheap. Like you're talking Lewis or Lee to even get the conversation started. That's a hefty price to pay. Trading for a fill in SS that would give way to Lewis or Lee makes even less sense to me. Just sign Iglesias or some other vet who's easily pushed aside. Why give up any talent for someone you expect to be replaced in half a season?

Very interesting topic there. Good suggestion!

I think I'd switch Lewis and Lee, but if those guys all hit their peak that'd sure be a fun team in a few years.

In 2 extra starts in 2021 he had 1 more start where he went into the 6th, 0 extra starts where he completed the 6th, and 1 more start that he completed the 5th. I acknowledged that there were games they pulled him too early, but those numbers aren't that impressive. The obvious argument is that 2021 was coming off the shortened season so they were being careful with him. My argument is that that's what the Twins were doing in 2022 based on in season injuries. When you look at the starts he had in 2022 where he was pulled after 5 without giving up 3 runs you see the starts on May 7 and June 15th were both his first start back after an injury, and within 2 starts he was up to 6+ inning starts in both cases. In fact after the 4 innings, 0 earned start on May 7th he went 4.1 and 2 earned on May 13, then went 6 innings, 7 innings, 6 innings on May 18, 24, and 29 before hurting his pec in that start on the 29th and missing more time. So I'd say they were letting him build back up into more innings after a shortened spring training that saw him start even later than the rest of the league due to the trade. It was early in the year so they gave him 2 games to work back up to 6 innings. After 3 starts of 6+ innings he was hurt again. He came back and went 5 innings, 4 innings (3 earned, 4 total allowed), then 7 innings. He followed that up with 3 ok, to really bad starts then was at 6 innings again before finishing the year with a bunch of 5 or 6 inning starts before going on the IL again. Sonny Gray isn't a workhorse. I think they had very good reason to pull him early a couple times in May/June after he had hit the IL after just 2 starts to begin the year. There was some load management for him, and I think they were too conservative with him a few times when they were still in the hunt, but when you go game by game through it there was good reason for why his numbers look the way they did.

There were times they pulled him when they certainly could've let him go longer, but there were also a number of short starts that bring his inning per start numbers down because he either got rocked and didn't make it that deep or he got hurt and that shortened things. Sonny Gray is not a workhorse starter. He hasn't been for years. There's definitely some games where I wished they'd have let him go longer, but he's also someone who's proven for most of his career that he's not going to throw 160+ (only topped it 4 times in his whole career) innings, let alone 200. I think the Twins were trying to get a higher number of starts out of him than having him go deeper in a smaller number of starts. He's just not the workhorse people want him to be. Hasn't been for a long time. It's why he's make 12.5 mil and not 20+.

Sonny Gray isn't considered an ace, though. Sonny Gray hasn't averaged 6 innings a start since 2017. He became a fulltime starter in 2014 and in his 9 seasons he's averaged 6 innings a start 3 times. His first 2 seasons he averaged 6.6 and 6.7 innings per start. Since then he's gone 5.3, 6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.1, 5.2, and finally 5 with the Twins last year. He's been with 4 teams now, and other than his first 2 seasons he's been used basically the same way with all 4 of them. We need to quit with this talk that the Twins were doing something crazy with Gray last year and he is super mad about it. Were there starts that he was pulled before he should have been? Absolutely. Did that likely upset him? Absolutely. But his overall body of work was pretty much right in line with who he's been for years now. And it produced his 2nd best ERA since 2015.

I am aware. I am stating that no stats from 2020 mean anything to me when the season was moved back months and shortened to 60 games. Not just for Urshela, but for any player. That's not a sample size I'd use in any measure of player abilities. His career OPS+ and wRC+ are 104. So, yes, 121 and 119 are out of his career norm.

"Full year" was a pretty important part of my post. Sorry I'm not sold by his 43 games in 2020. Shoot, you were mad I cut off the first 19 games of Miranda's career and now you're selling barely twice that as some sort of significant game total. And, again, the Yankees didn't trade him and take on Donaldson's entire contract because they thought he was good enough to be their starting 3B in 2022. Or did they just really, really want Rortvedt or IKF? He's got a career OPS+ of 104. Career wRC+ of 104. He's a league average hitter career journeyman. That's a useful player worthy of a roster spot, but let's quit pretending he's some sort of above average player. He's not. I wouldn't bet on him being nontendered, but also wouldn't be shocked if they did nontender him. There's a real chance they let him walk.

There's a difference between going off when a rookie is recalled and just picking a random chunk of games. Gio is going to be 31 years old next year and has 1 other full season in his entire career where he was a fulltime major league regular. He's played on 4 major league teams. He's a veteran journeyman with 1 other full season of being a regular and having an OPS+ over 100. The Yankees didn't trade him for Josh Donaldson because a 121 OPS+ isn't "out of the ordinary" for him. Nobody was expecting him to do that because he's not that type of player. And his defense isn't even significantly better than Miranda's. People just fell in love with him when he had a few highlight plays in a short period of time. He's a decent defender, but nothing amazing. I want Urshela on the team and think he's a useful player. But there's a 50/50 chance he's nontendered and isn't even on the Twins in 2023. He's not blocking Miranda, or any other top young player, from being a starter in 2023.

You missed the entire point of that post. We're talking about an up and coming top young hitter who had a brutal start to his career as he adjusted to the league, but after he was recalled he was the 3rd best hitter on the team. I know you hate prospects so I'm just going to end this back and forth right here because I know your stance on young players playing.

From May 30th (when he was recalled after the Lewis injury) Miranda had a higher wRC+ than both of them. He struck out less than Urshela, tied Arraez in OBP while beating Urshela, out slugged Arraez, had a higher OPS than Arraez, beat them both in ISO, beat them both in wOBA, had a higher hard hit% than both, drove in the most runs on the team (I know some people love RBIs still), and out homered both of them. So after the first 19 games of his major league career when he really struggled to adapt to major league pitching he was the best hitter of the 3. And arguably the 3rd best hitter on the team behind Buxton and Correa. We're talking about the 2023 season. Do you think 31 year old Urshela is going to out hit 25 year old Miranda in 2023? Jose Miranda is absolutely penciled in as an opening day starter in the heart of the order.

Defense is important, but there's no team that benches a middle of the order bat because of their defense. Miranda will be a top 5 hitter in this lineup so he's absolutely going to be a starter. I do hope him and Correa follow through with the plan to train together to help improve his defense, though. I think his knees are exactly why the team hasn't tried to extend him (at least I don't remember any reports that they've talked). He's also not someone who gets super expensive in arbitration so there's less incentive there. I think the type of player he is, and the concerns over his knees, makes him a year to year guy who the Twins don't try to extend until after arbitration.

I agree with getting Miranda more time at 1 spot and letting him develop defensively there, but for me that spot would be 1B, not 3B. I think 3B is set to be covered by a far superior defender in either Lewis or Lee, depending on what they do with SS this offseason. I don't see a long-term future at 3B for Miranda so I'd put him at 1B/DH with Arraez. I think Kirilloff has the ability to claim that 1B spot if he's healthy, but I just can't count on him at all, and there's enough production and health concerns in the corner OF spots that I'd have him out there to start. I agree Arraez needs to be the primary DH in the rotation to save his legs. I'm hoping another offseason dedicated to strengthening them will help him hold up for more of the season, but I think it's pretty clear those knees are going to dampen his career. Which absolutely sucks. I agree Urshela is expendable, but can't imagine he's worth anything in a trade for pitching. Teams willing to move real pitching and wanting a prospect or 2 wouldn't be interested in Urshela for nearly 10M, and definitely not interested in Sano (who, for the record, is going to be a FA by the end of the week so isn't really an option as a freebie).

We have debates on what constitutes an ace on this site all the time. Not interested in rehashing that here. That's your definition of an ace and it's all good. But Aaron Nola's career includes seasons of 27 starts 3.54 ERA, 33 starts 2.37 (3rd in Cy Young), 12 starts 3.28 ERA (2020 so not so many starts), and 3.25 ERA over 32 starts this year. Has averaged over 10 Ks per 9 for 4 straight seasons. Whether you want to call him an ace or not doesn't really matter to me, but he's far more than "inning eater," and so is Wheeler. Wheeler's ERA's the last 3 seasons are all under 3 (2.92, 2.78, 2.82). He was 2nd in the Cy Young last year. He's only had 1 season with an ERA over 4 in 8 seasons. I think you're underselling these 2 dramatically. I don't think the Twins need an ace and Verlander getting his butt kicked all postseason is a great example why. I'm just saying that suggesting the Phillies don't have 2 guys that would fit in the Framber Valdez tier of pitchers is inaccurate. Nola and Wheeler are absolute studs. I mean, outside of 2020, Framber Valdez has never even averaged 9 SO/9 for a season. If he's an ace Nola and Wheeler are unquestionably aces. I mean Framber Valdez has only been a fulltime major league starter for 3 years. And in those 3 years Wheeler has made more starts, with a lower ERA, lower FIP, lower WHIP, higher SO/9, and lower BB/9. Nola has made significantly more starts in those 3 years, does have a higher ERA, but beats Valdez in FIP, WHIP, and destroys him in both BB/9 and SO/9, more than doubling Valdez's SO/W ratio.