chpettit19

Winder looks like a legit starter and I'm ok with keeping him in St Paul until a starter is needed in Minneapolis, or having the Twins get more creative with bulk work. I'd like to keep Winder as a starter and not bulk reliever so he can continue to perfect his routine for starting as I think he can be a big part of the top of the rotation with Ryan for the next half decade. Sands feels like a bulk reliever to me. Once through the order kind of guy. Use him for 2 or 3 innings 2 or 3 times a week. I'd give him a shot in the majors if they're feeling he's ready for that. He's been pretty inconsistent this year (if I'm remembering correctly) so maybe he needs a little more work in AAA still. But he feels like a guy they'll use as a once through the order type. I don't know much about Henriquez, but upper 90s as a starter while struggling to get guys out consistently certainly feels like a guy worth trying in the pen. Maybe he's a 1 inning shutdown guy, or maybe he's a once through the order guy. I haven't looked at his stats to see if there's a clear line there, but anyone throwing that hard would get a look in the pen if I were running things and they were struggling as a starter. Doesn't hurt to say "let it fly for an inning and see how it goes." Makes complete sense to try him as a starter to see what you have, but when the situation around him changes and he's struggling in that role there's nothing wrong with adjusting and seeing if he can fill a different role you have a clear need for. Others have mentioned Canterino and he certainly feels like Duran 2.0. Would love him and his stuff as a starter, but his arm may just not be up for it. Maybe they have medical people telling them a move to the pen wouldn't keep his arm healthy anyways, but unless that's the case I'd probably make that move. He's 24 now so he's not young, but not old. He's got the stuff to pitch in the majors right now, but can't stay healthy long enough to work on things. If you can turn him into a late inning arm to pair with Duran for the next half decade that's not the worst outcome ever compared to a constantly injured starter. I'm sure they're having those discussions already.

I think you're selling the Orioles staff, and Jorge Lopez's performance for the season, short. They're not world beaters, but they're not the same Orioles pitching that we've seen the last handful of years. They've had the 11th best ERA in baseball since June 1. 15th best since May 1. So, again, not world beaters, but you're not talking about the 25th-30th worst staff either. And before Friday's game Jorge Lopez hadn't given up an earned run since May 19th. If that's "the midst of a rough patch" sign me up for a Twins bullpen rough patch! Before that he hadn't given up an earned run since April 13th. He'd given up 3 earned runs all season before Friday. He wasn't in the midst of anything but complete domination before Friday. His previous appearance was 1 inning with 3 Ks. 2 appearances before that was .2 innings with 2 Ks. 2 appearances before that was 1.1 innings 4 Ks. He's been unbelievable. He had a .78 ERA and hadn't allowed a homerun in 37 innings pitched this year before Buxton got him. It feels unnecessarily negative to spin this as him going through a rough patch and not giving the Twins credit when he'd given up fewer runs in 37 innings pitched this year than he did in .1 innings pitched against the Twins.

Limiting rosters to 13 pitchers, making the IL 15 days for pitchers, making pitchers stay in the minors for 15 days if they're sent down, and limiting a team to 5 callups for a player are all meant to curb the crazy amount of 1 inning relief arms teams were using.

I think the Twins are not quite as flexible, but I think their staff is also far less efficient with their pitches. Ryan has thrown 100 pitches 3 times and has gotten through 6, 6, 5 innings out of him in those starts. He went 7 in one start while throwing only 90 pitches. Then 2 starts later made it through 4 on 90 pitches. The Twins will let their guys go, but they haven't built a very efficient staff. Archer was at 90 pitches through 4 yesterday. Smeltzer has gone 6+ in 5 of 9 starts this year, but only thrown 100 pitches once. He's being used pretty close to how the Rays would use him I think. I think the problem is more about the Twins being too strict with "the plan." There's games where they planned to get certain relievers certain amounts of work and they'll follow that instead of letting the starter go another inning. Do that too much and you run yourself into trouble when someone only goes 4 innings. Rocco gets the blame for it, but I think it's more the FO and probably Wes. Would be interesting to hear what those internal talks are really like. But overall I think the Twins are just bad at executing this plan and adjusting on the fly well.

Mookie plays RF, not CF. He doesn't like to play CF, but does from time to time. Has played nothing but RF in his 59 games this year. I'd say every time a ball is hit to right with a guy on it comes into play and teams will take the extra base at will if they know Mookie can't let it fly. So how many games will it be before he's good to really throw again? Is it 1 or 2? Then it's not a big deal. Is it 3 weeks? Then you may be talking a pretty decent sized sum of extra bases you're giving up by having a RFer who can't throw. Even if he's in center you're still giving up extra bases. But every ball to right with a guy on first means the guy is going first to 3rd. Guy on second is tagging on far more balls to right than they would with his usual arm out there. Same with 3rd. The Twins have shown us all year that every extra base you can take is big, and everyone you don't take can be a killer. I don't think it's a gigantic thing, but it's certainly not nothing either.

You and I might be better than the options the Twins are using currently!

It's interesting that the 3 guys you think will help were all acquired by the front office you think can't evaluate pitchers in 3 different ways. Ober as a 12th round pick in the draft. Maeda as a win now piece brought in for a prospect. Alcala as a future asset brought in by trading an established big leaguer. They evaluated them pretty well I think. Traded for Duran. Traded for Gray and Ryan. Signed Archer and Bundy (he's not great, but is doing well as a #5). I think the criticism for the FO in regards to pitching is how far they go with the idea that relievers are more or less interchangeable. Like bringing in Wisler was great evaluation, but then they thought he was replaceable and let him walk for guys who formed a pen that blew up last season while Wisler continues to dominate out of Tampa's pen. I think they evaluate well, but are too overconfident in their (and Wes') ability to turn any collection of arms into a good enough pen.

Contract the Dodgers! Playing a guy outside of his 1 main position guarantees either injury or poor production. They're going to ruin Mookie Betts! I'm being sarcastic. It is an interesting move to make, though, to get his bat in the lineup while allowing him to ease himself back in on the throwing end. I'm sure he's taken some grounders while messing around during ST and batting practice over the last handful of years.

There's 18 pitchers in baseball averaging 6 innings or more a start. 1 averaging 7. A bunch more between 5 and 6 innings.

I think Duran, Jax, Smeltzer, and Winder being so good should make this more doable. It's just a matter of recalibrating how many innings guys throw and how often. If you have 7 pitchers (when Ober comes back) that can go 4-6 innings each, plus 2 guys who can go 2+ innings that should cover a whole lot of your innings. Problem is that any innings those 7 don't cover are a complete s*** show. Pitcher usage in a fantasy world with their top 9 arms all healthy: Gray 5-7 innings- Duran 2 innings Archer/Ober 8-9 innings Ryan 5-7 innings- Jax 2 innings Bundy/Winder 8-9 innings Smeltzer 5-7 innings- Duran 2 innings Gray 5-7 innings- Jax 2 innings Archer/Ober 8-9 innings Ryan 5-7 innings- Duran 2 innings And so on... If the Gray/Ryan/Smeltzer trio is constantly only getting through 5 it'd force more usage of lesser pen arms, but if they can average 6 innings a start and Duran and Jax can go 2 innings you're down to covering 1 inning with someone outside the top 9 arms. Again, it's a fantasy world with all of those arms staying healthy, but having the 4 you mentioned pitching so well I think creates an opportunity to reduce the usage of the bad pen arms. The Twins seem more in favor of using 1 inning pen guys for 1+ innings instead of using their starter arms in piggyback situations with multiple guys going 4 or 5 innings each. I'm sure there's a reason why they don't try piggybacking.

The bullpen outside of Duran has been a massive failure. Gleeman's tweets these days make me want to cry. It's certainly a fixable situation, but they're caught in between strategies now it feels like. Jax, Winder, and Duran were all multi-inning guys to start the year. Now they're mixing and matching roles because the 1 inning guys they planned to have as the setup/closer types have been brutally bad. It'll be interesting to see what they do if they ever get Gray, Ryan, Smeltzer, Archer, Bundy, Winder, and Ober healthy at the same time. Those 7 plus Jax and Duran is a solid little top 9 and can get a lot of innings as they're all capable of going more than 1 inning. They just need to get the plan back on track (maybe they're hoping to get to the break and recalibrate then?). Alcala coming back could be helpful. I like Moran. So to me that's 11 usable arms and I'd go get 1 big time righty and 1 big time lefty if I can. Maybe Alacala is that big time righty? We know there'll be more injuries and I think Balazovic and Sands struggling with Canterino being hurt has thrown a bit of a wrench into their season long plan. The starters have more than held their own, and Duran and Jax have shown me they can be on a playoff roster, but the rest of the pen has failed and the plan is now a massive failure because there's still over half the season to go and they don't have a staff that can win games consistently. Certainly fixable, but they need to make some changes soon to get back on track. They need to execute the plan much better than they have for the last month.

Max Fried vs Bullpen Game Ian Anderson vs Max Scherzer Charlie Morton vs Walker Buehler Bullpen Game vs Julio Urias Max Fried vs Bullpen Game Ian Anderson vs Walker Buehler The 2 Max Fried games are the only 2 games the Braves were favored in that series based on the starting pitchers for those games. The Braves went 1-1 in those games while being outscored 13-5 in those 2 games combined. They won with Ian Anderson going against Max Scherzer. Won with their bullpen going against Julio Urias (9-2!). Won with Ian Anderson going against Walker Buehler.

This strategy also explains why the Twins don't spend big money on starters. They want to save money on the pitching side by using this strategy. Can't match the Dodgers rotation, but can maximize the arms they do have by using them in varying appearance lengths based on their skills. Again, they've just massively failed at the plan. And I think they haven't really figured out the roster building side of it to give themselves the best chance to execute the plan. Rays are the masters and the Twins are the fumbling students we all hope figure it out soon. Like today soon.

Yeah, I think the plan all along was for him to get that start and they did things based on that. Makes sense to me. I'll be interested to see what they do with the rotation, and staff as a whole, if all 7 starters are healthy at the same time.

I'm with @Unwinder, the strategy is sound, but the Twins don't have the arms to pull it off right now, had injuries that interrupted the plan early, and now they seem to be caught in between strategies. I don't know what their plan is to get out of it, but they sure need to make some changes somewhere. Rocco gets a lot of heat for "sticking to the plan" even when things start going bad, but that's the real risk with this approach. And why it's so hard to do if you don't have a whole bunch of really good arms. The more times you have to take a guy out before you had planned to the more guys you have to use before they were supposed to and the more "unavailable" guys pile up game to game. The plan is sound, but the execution by the pitchers themselves has been terrible and that's certainly the FO's fault for not having better arms. The Twins have a good plan, just really bad execution.

They actually couldn't keep him up if I'm remembering the rules correctly. The waiting period for pitchers after being sent to the minors is 15 days now (again, if I'm remembering correctly). He was officially optioned to St Paul on 6/23 after completing his rehab starts. So he can't be recalled until a week from today if I have my math right. He was allowed to start Wednesday because he was the 27th man callup for the double header. They had to send him back after that game.

Yeah, I figure the kinds of teams that would trade for them are contenders who want a little more depth so didn't think they'd be likely to give up any major league pieces. A rental reliever would be ideal, but would think the teams trading good relievers are looking for younger prospects and not veteran depth pieces.

I was thinking the same thing about Tim Beckham. They're not going to bring back any big names or anything, but both look like they're making a real statement about deserving another big league shot and the Twins don't have room for either of them. Wonder if you could turn them into a couple fliers in the low levels of the minors.

Moran, Duffey, and Thornburg all threw more than 1 inning today. Duran threw 2 yesterday. Moran threw 2 in game 2 Tuesday. Cotton threw 2 Monday. Pagan threw more than 1 Sunday. So the only game this week they didn't have a reliever go more than 1 inning was game 1 Tuesday.

I wouldn't trade any big prospects for him because of exactly what you're questioning. He wouldn't be someone I count on beyond this year, but I'll take a flier on a guy for this season.

Baltimore has a few guys in their pen I wouldn't mind having stay in Minnesota after the Orioles head back to Baltimore on Monday. Can Lopez at least go to Chicago with us on Monday? I'll let Baltimore use him for the weekend, but would prefer he takes the Twins charter after the series.

The last few days many in charge over there have spoken about how vital Wes has been in the planning process. The 3rd time through the lineup stuff is definitely an organizational thing, but Wes plays a large role in everything. And I'm not trying to place this at his feet. The FO needs to get better pitchers for the pen. I put most of it on them. Just saying it's a natural point to change things up. Guy who runs the staff is leaving and you have a new voice in charge. Clearly need to change things. Seems too obvious not to change some things. Hopefully pretty drastically.

Wes is leaving tonight. Time to sit down with Maki now and come up with a new plan. Can't keep doing this.

But if putting him in the pen makes him worse it doesn't fix anything. I don't blame him at all for not being able to go deep in games after all the time he's missed with injuries the last few years. The FO/Wes/Rocco/Whoever not having a plan for the starts they knew would be short from the beginning is the problem. He's pitched very well in his current role and I wouldn't mess with that if I have another choice.

Yeah, I'd be good with that, too. Don't know how he'd feel about it, though. I'd love him as a 2 innings guy multiple times a week.