chpettit19

Mixing in a high fastball certainly wouldn't have been an awful choice. Change eye levels at least. Not suggesting it's crazy to have wanted to throw him a fastball, but there's definitely plenty of reason to have been spinning him sliders. At the end of the day it's about executing whichever pitch you throw. A fastball down the middle is also very likely to be hit high and far as well. It was just an awful pitch.

I think it's time to get Moran back up and see if he can be a real piece. Hopefully Alcala is back soon. Then they need to make a move or 2 (or 5) in July when other teams are more serious about making trades. I'm never going to be a proponent of spending tons on the pen as relief arms are just such a crap shoot, but they need to jump on the velo/stuff bandwagon and quit trying to rely on Duffey types for prominent bullpen roles. I think it's time to move Canterino to the pen, too. Just like Duran, it'd be ideal if he could be a starter, but his arm just doesn't seem to be up to the workload. A Duran/Alcala/Canterino/Moran (I'm still really not sure why a guy with 15 Ks in 10 innings with only 2 runs allowed was sent back to AAA) pen could have the makings of something legit. Then you can leave the Duffey/Pagan/Thielbar types for the lower leverage spots.

I was at the game, and hearing it and seeing it off the bat I thought it was a routine fly to the left field corner. I'm still shocked that ball got out.

278 pitches in 13 innings?! That was not an overly efficient outing for Mr. Ryan. 21+ pitches an inning is generally not a recipe for success.

A player needs to throw at least 20 major league innings and play at least 20 major league games as a position player (or DH) with at least 3 PAs in each of those games to be considered a 2 way player. A position player cannot pitch in any game that isn't in extra innings or a team doesn't have at least a 6 run lead.

James Hoye last night called 97% of actual balls balls (110 for 113), and 89% of actual strikes strikes (58 for 65). He was about average for a major league ump in both of those cases. He had an overall accuracy percent of 94 (again, league average), and a consistency percent of 94 as well (still league average). Unfortunately for the Twins the majority of his missed calls went against them. Based on fancy analytics the Guardians gained 1.36 runs from missed ball/strike calls. Twins fans actually have a gripe this time, even if that isn't always the case. The goal is not a "fifty-fifty chance" of a ball on the edge of the box being a strike. The goal is that strikes are called strikes (and batters swing at them with 2 strikes) and balls are called balls (and batters don't swing at them no matter how many strikes they have on them). The most impactful missed call was actually Kirilloff's AB in the bottom of the 7th when he called a ball a strike with a full count. A top player doesn't swing at ball 4, by the way. Also weird that you'd argue that Kirilloff, or any hitter, should swing at borderline pitches because the ump "has had enough of" the "moving glove game" by the catcher. If the ump is sick of the catcher moving the glove on borderline pitches wouldn't he call them balls to get back at the catcher, and thus the hitter shouldn't be swinging?

I mean at the end of the day Polanco sees 4.26 Pitches/PA, Arraez 4.16, Buxton 4.10, and Sanchez 3.96. So they all see 4 pitches per plate appearance. I'd think the pitcher is throwing his best pitches to Buxton since he knows Buxton can take him deep if he just lays one in there. So to me the pitcher is "working" just as hard in those Buxton PAs as he is in the Polanco or Arraez PAs. Now the end results of the PA may be different, but a Buxton K on 4 pitches is just as much work as an Arraez single on 4 pitches, isn't it? We can get into things like swinging vs looking strike percentages, chase rates, etc. and say that Buxton and Sanchez could make the pitcher work even harder by not having such high swinging strike percentages, or chasing so many pitches, but at the end of the day the pitcher is having to throw 4 good pitches, on average, every time one of those 4 guys come up. I'd honestly have guessed that Arraez would have a much larger lead on Buxton here, though. The Twins K rates definitely raise their pitches per plate appearance numbers, but it's still making the pitchers work more than most teams. It'd just be nice if the end results of some of those plate appearances weren't strikeouts. Although, to be fair, the Twins are actually exactly league average in SO% (22.2%), and above average in BB% (9.0% which is 8th in baseball).

My comment wasn't on the general idea of fans complaining about managers/coaches, it was on the hypocrisy of some fans complaints. "Don't just follow a set plan!" followed by "Follow my set plan!" is annoyingly hypocritical. Some fans like to latch onto the term "analytics" and act like it's something new in the game and managers (Rocco specifically around here) are for the first time using a set of data/ideas to create the most effective plan as possible when in reality they just have more, and better, data than they used to so they've changed the strategies and some fans don't like it. Heck, I don't like the way the new strategies have changed the entertainment value of the game. I hate the 3 true outcomes approach and lack of stolen bases. This isn't the first time on field, or team building, strategies have changed. But "this is how it was done when I was young so it must be better than this approach" is not a reasonable explanation to me. And when people complain about sticking to a plan then counter it by suggesting the correct move is simply to follow their plan instead I'm going to call out the hypocrisy. I understand that it's a generational thing and in 20 years I'll be the guy complaining about "it worked in my day so Manager X should do it that way instead," but I'm not old enough to be that cranky guy yet so I must play my younger generation role of pointing out that change is inevitable and not automatically wrong.

I hear ya on things seeming certain ways because of the game to game inconsistency. Someone just corrected me in the last couple days when I complained that it felt like they were really bad at scoring guys from 3rd, when in actuality they're pretty darn good at it. The curse of a 162 game schedule I think. The negatives tend to stand out and get us all amped up!

The Twins have attempted 8 sacrifice bunts this year. League average is 9. So they're ever so slightly below average in that. But they are at only 46.7% in terms of advancing a runner from 2nd with 0 outs, and league average there is 50.1% so they are certainly not great at that. They have converted 6 of their 8 sacrifice bunt attempts so perhaps that's something they should use more in extras to advance that guy. Agreed that Correa isn't the one to do it, though, and after Buxton walked last night that option was pretty well gone for the 10th inning. Interesting stats just for general knowledge: There are 3 teams that currently have attempted over 18 sacrifice bunts (so more than double league average). They are Washington (21 attempts), Arizona (20 attempts), and LA Angels (19 attempts). Those 3 teams rank 21st, 23rd, and 20th in runs scored per game this year. The Twins are 14th for reference. Of the top 10 scoring teams in baseball, 4 are at or above league average for sacrifice bunts (Yankees, Mets, Padres, Rockies). Of the bottom 10 scoring teams in baseball, 7 are at or above league average for sacrifice bunts (As, Pirates, Royals, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Nationals). The next 3 lowest scoring teams are also all above average (Angels, White Sox, Astros). You can take that info to mean whatever you want. Maybe it doesn't mean anything. Just found it interesting.

The Twins are 6th in all of baseball in pitches seen per plate appearance, and actually above league average. So statistically speaking they're actually very good at making a pitcher work on a consistent basis. Better than all but 5 teams, in fact. Polanco is 11th in baseball, Arraez is 22nd, Buxton 34th, Sanchez 62nd.

People who think pitch framing isn't real, and umps can't be influenced by things subconsciously, probably think advertising doesn't work and billion dollar corporations throw away 10s, if not 100s, of millions of dollars a year trying to influence their impenetrable brains.

"Rocco is too stuck with his 'grand plans,' just does what the spreadsheet tells him to, and doesn't adjust for the situation! The Twins need to fire him!" "Bunt Buxton/Correa because that's what the 'grand plan' is when the winning run is on second, what the 'right way to play the game' says you should do, and who the hitters are in that situation shouldn't make you adjust the plan! I should be manager so I can follow my 'grand plans' that are obviously smarter than Rocco's!" Fans, and their thought processes, are truly fascinating.

Franmil Reyes was hitting .121, and slugging .121, against sliders going into that at bat. All 4 of his previous HRs came on fastballs. Along with both of his doubles. Last year he hit .219 on breaking balls and .278 on fastballs. In 2020 he hit .155 on sliders and .323 on fastballs. Has slugged over 100 points higher against fastballs each of the last 3 years. He's a vastly better fastball hitter than slider hitter. But any pitch directly down the middle has the chance of going the other way at a very high rate of speed no matter who the hitter is. Throwing a bad slider hitter sliders isn't a bad choice, it was just poorly executed.

The best hitters in the history of baseball didn't top 3% if their games as 4 hit games, but that's what we should expect from Kirilloff? Pete Rose has the most 4 hit games ever. 73 total, which accounted for 2% of his games. When the guy with the most hits in the history of baseball had 73 total games over 24 seasons (that's 3 times a season) it is quite easy to say expecting 4 hit games is a ridiculous performance expectation level. And if 2 homerun games is a "flash of potential" and all you're looking for I already pointed out that Alex Kirilloff has already accomplished that. He did it his rookie year. 2 for 3 with another double (that's now 3 doubles in 3 starts since his return) and 2 RBIs doesn't even meet your ridiculous standards. He added another ball hit 106 MPH (the double) and his single was hit an embarrassing 93.5. So in 13 PAs since being back he's hit 7 balls over 90 MPH and 6 of them over 97. No "flashes of potential" anywhere to be found.

This thread is about Alex Kirilloff's return. His return was 2 starts and a pinch hitting appearance. Nobody has crowned him MVP. The thread isn't even about Larnach or Jeffers so I'm not sure why you bring them up since you're the only one talking about them here. Well, I do know why you bring them up and it's because you think it helps you prove a point about Kirilloff. It doesn't. In Kirilloff's return (again, that's what this thread is about) he had 10 plate appearances. 5 of those ended with him hitting the ball at elite exit velos. It's weird to me that a few of you get so amped up to put down players you supposedly cheer for. Maybe re-read what the thread is about. Kirilloff's return was every bit as good as we could have hoped. He absolutely smashed the ball. 4-hit and multi-homer games are a ridiculous performance expectation level. If he goes 4-5 with 2 HRs tonight are you sold? Oh, and he had a 2 HR game last year so I guess you're sold on him now. You can absolutely not feel like he's arrived and proven himself. I don't think anyone here is claiming he's an established star. But using his stats while he was injured to suggest that he's not talented is disingenuous. You can absolutely take a realistic stance of his injury concerns being a real thing. They are. But using them to suggest his recent healthy performance means nothing is a little absurd, no? Suggesting 72 games, most of which he was injured for, is any sort of indication of the player someone will be is an awful baseball take. Through Mike Trouts first 273 PAs (the same number as Kirilloff now) he had 10 HRs. Did he deserve a few more years to work out the kinks? The posts I'm seeing here are saying Kirilloff mashed AAA to a crazy extent and it's now time to see what he can do at the major league level. The first 10 PAs were encouraging. They don't currently have any established player who should be playing ahead of him against righties. Nobody is saying he should replace Correa or Buxton in the lineup. We're saying his first 10 PAs back were very encouraging, and since he's been a fantastic prospect his whole life there's a real reason for hope with him. As long as he can stay healthy.

Part of it, yes. Humans, and their perception, can be manipulated.

There are instances where the catcher doesn't want the pitcher to throw a strike. They're attempting to get a batter to chase so will setup off the plate since that's where the pitcher is attempting to throw the ball. And, yes, catchers "steal" balls as well as strikes. That's the point. Good catchers turn more pitches on the edges into strikes while bad catchers turn them into balls.

It would be interesting. I'd guess it'd go a lot like discussions amongst the rest of us, though. You'd have a segment of them that reject that it's even a thing. A segment that say it is, but don't like it. A segment that says it's a thing, doesn't like it, but appreciates the art of it (even if it frustrates them that it makes them look bad). I'm sure umps generally dislike it, though. Makes them look bad. They take pride in what they do and want to get calls right. It's not a new thing, though. Catchers have been framing pitches for decades. The catchers I threw to back in the 90s as a middle school/high school kid were attempting (very poorly usually) to frame pitches. MLB and statcast have been tracking the "shadow zone" for a while now and the data is pretty conclusive. Certain catchers get more calls on the edges than others (controlled for both ballpark and pitchers). Either you think they're just lucky, have better relationships with umps so get bonus calls, or the way they receive that ball matters.

Ramirez going to play this series? I haven't seen any news today about his availability. I know they were attempting to have him ready for this series by sitting for the weekend, but haven't seen if he'll be back or not. That's a big bat to have either in the lineup or out. Could be key to the series.

I think Turner and Bogaerts being available leaves the door open just a crack for the Twins. If the Sox were willing to pay Bogaerts his asking price I'd think they already would have. From the reports out there he's pissed at their offers and he's out the door after this season. Are they good with shifting Story back to SS, or would they be willing to pay Correa what they wouldn't pay Bogaerts? I have to assume the Dodgers sign 1 of these 3 guys, and I'd guess it's Turner since they're familiar with him, but it really could be any of them. The Yankees will be interesting. The reports have been they aren't going to spend big on a SS because they have cheap ones on the doorstep that they believe in. If they come up short this year does that change? If they can't/don't keep Judge does that mean they shift to paying a SS? Can Philly afford a premiere SS? What is happening with the Cubs? Are they going to pay one of these guys what they wouldn't pay Baez, Bryant, or Rizzo? The Angels get crazy and add yet another massive position player contract? I don't think there's any chance the Twins would go 10 years, but I think there's a remote chance they'd go 7. And that may end up being enough if his market fails to materialize again. I certainly wouldn't predict a Correa extension, but wouldn't say it's a 0% chance either. Will be another interesting offseason of SS contract watching.

10 years, 325 mil. The most obvious comp for Correa is a 28 year old SS. It just so happens Scott Boras just represented a superstar SS that is 5 months older than Correa just last year. Corey Seager got 10 years and $325 million. Seems like a pretty obvious place for Correa to start his negotiations.

Pitch framing definitely matters. It's not about everyone doing it, it's about who's good at it. The umps aren't looking at the catcher's glove and making conscious decisions based on the movement, placement, what-have-you, they're being subconsciously influenced by the subtly of catcher glove movements. It's a real skill with real advantages, and Jeffers is above average, but not elite, at it. Game calling is a huge part of being a catcher. It's a really hard thing to quantify, though. Pitchers and catchers have meetings before each series, and almost every game, to discuss the opposing hitters and their approaches to getting them out. Then each pitcher has an individual plan based on their pitching strengths, pitch types, etc. on how to get each hitter out. The key to game calling is more about being on the same page as the pitcher. As @Richie the Rally Goat points out, it feeds in to things like pace. The pitcher is the ultimate caller of pitches in game as they can shake off a catcher until they get to the pitch they want. But a catcher who is good at knowing what each of his pitchers likes to throw in certain situations can keep a pitcher in his rhythm and it helps tremendously. It will be very interesting to see what happens with the catching position as the automated strike zone becomes a thing. Pitch framing will disappear since they can't trick the computer. Will be interesting to see if teams start looking for more offensive minded catchers who can block and throw.

You can find highlights of basically every AB he had over the last month in AAA plus all 7 balls he put in play since being back. That feels like enough to make a statement about whether or not he's favoring his wrist like he was at the start of the year or if he's finishing his swing. Those were the statements made. I actually only need to see 1 swing to say "yeah, that swing was much more free and he finished that swing much better." I mean this thread is literally based on 10 ABs. Weird that you didn't complain about that, but have a problem with a statement that could be based on 7 swings seen on replay. And a replay of the game as a whole would show his entire at bats...

Haven't seen ABs live doesn't mean hasn't seen ABs. Highlights and replays exist in this crazy 2022 world we live in ?