chpettit19
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Everything posted by chpettit19
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I get that and don't think it's a crazy argument. But Duran is 4th amongst relievers in all of baseball in WPA with Rocco using him the way he has. I think that's a sign that he's using Duran pretty well. I don't think it would've been unreasonable to save him til later, but the idea that it was inconceivable to use him there is ridiculous. Using him to face the top of the other lineup in a 1 run game is never inconceivable. The real problem is that they need a ton more bullpen help before Duran usage really even matters.
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The 8th and 9th inning stats of 2 players that you compared based on 8th and 9th inning stats is picking to suit my narrative? You made claims about their abilities to hold 8th and 9th inning leads. Don't be mad at me that the stats didn't match your narrative. I didn't leave anything out of those stats. Those were the stats of every 8th and 9th inning they'd pitched this year. So, do you have stats or no? What are the percentages that should be played?
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What are the percentages we're playing? You have some stats for me? I love stats.
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So, wait, other guys are capable of that? So what's the concern then? If other guys can get those outs why are you made about when they used Duran?
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Ok, so they have 1 good reliever. Now your arguments have become "nobody in the pen outside of Duran can hold a lead, but they need to save Duran until the 9th inning with a lead that nobody is capable of holding." You realize you're arguing to never use Duran, right? You can't have it both ways. Either other guys are capable of holding leads or they aren't. If they are then the innings don't matter and you use Duran to face as many of the good hitters as he can. So when the leadoff hitter is scheduled to leadoff a middle inning of a 2-1 game (which is high leverage, by the way) and you know you have Duran for 2 innings you use him when you know he will face the top of the order. Not when you hope to still have a lead and he may be facing the 5-8 hitters.
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They have 2 good relievers and had to face the top of the order twice. So after Duran (1 of their good relievers) pitched they had 1 more good reliever left to pitch to the top of the order the second time. They used Duran first so he could go 2 innings and make it so a bad reliever had to only pitch 1 inning and face the bottom of the order while saving the other good reliever to then face the top of the order. I'm not glossing over anything.
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That's not my argument in the least. My argument is to use the best relievers against the best hitters. They have 2 good relievers. They had to get the best hitters out 2 more times. They used their best reliever to get the 6 best hitters out.
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As many times as it takes for the Twins to have more than 1 or 2 good relievers or for baseball to get rid of the 8th and 9th innings so they don't happen every game.
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So you didn't want to trust Pagan to get the 7-9 hitters out (apparently just because it was the 8th inning), but you wanted to trust him to get the 1-3 hitters out? You then wanted to trust someone else not named Duran (since it'd only be the 7th and you need him for the 8th or 9th) to get the 4-6 hitters out. Now it's the 8th and your argument has been that only certain guys can be trusted there so I'm guessing you wanted Smith to get the 8th and pitch to the 7-9 hitters. Then have Duran around to get the 1-3 hitters in the 9th. That's the smart move. Having Pagan and other crappy reliever face 1-6 just cuz it's not the 8th or 9th, then use one of your 2 good relievers to get the bottom of the order and have the other get the top. Rocco wanted his bad reliever to face the bottom of the order while using his good relievers to both face the top. But Rocco is the crazy one. Got it.
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Cuz my argument isn't about the inning, yours is. My argument is about the batters faced because I don't care about the inning. Throwing Duran in the 6th instead of 9th allowed him to face the 1-6 hitters instead of just the 1-3 (or whoever would've been up) because he could throw 2 innings.
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Why are you assuming the lead is held in the 6th and 7th without Duran pitching? You don't think anyone else can get hitters out so why are you now claiming the pen would hold the lead when your base argument is they aren't good enough to hold leads?
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You don't get more chances to score because you're losing. The Twins got 27 outs today and scored 2 runs. The idea that they'd have performed differently had they been down 3-2 instead of up 2-1 is absurd.
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It doesn't make a difference! It literally doesn't. They don't become better baseball players because of the inning. They just don't.
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You're the one who says 1 can get late inning outs and the other can't. I've literally provided you their late inning numbers. I'm sorry their stats don't match your perception. Duran is better. Saving him for when they're losing isn't the miracle cure you think it is. Pagan, Duffey, Thielbar, Smith, anybody has to be able to get outs. The offense has to score runs. Pagan blowing the lead in the 6th isn't better. It might make you feel better, but it isn't. Then you're not using Duran at all since the team is losing. They wouldn't magically score runs because Duran is still available. That's not how it works.
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Yes, somebody was going to have to get the 1-2-3 hitters out again. Rocco decided to give his offense 2 more innings to extend the lead so his lesser pen arms didn't have to protect a 1 run lead by letting his best arm keep the score where it was. The offense failed. Feel free to disagree, but it's an awfully logical choice. I don't follow the logic of the 2nd paragraph at all. The Twins could have won this game. They had a decent chance of losing because they couldn't score more than 2 and the rest of the pen couldn't get outs? But that's going to magically change? So don't use your best arm in super close games because other guys may be bad? There's no logic in your argument. The pen is bad. They need more guys. Saving Duran for only 9th innings doesn't fix the fact that other pen arms need to be able to get outs. It's simple. Use him while the team is still winning and give the offense a chance to extend the lead.
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I am not in the tiny minority, but that's besides the point. The number of ABs left to comeback doesn't matter. At all. It doesn't make the Twins hitters try harder or become better. I get that it makes you feel better knowing they still have a chance, but it doesn't actually change anything. Fun stats: Jhoan Duran ERA in the 8th inning- 7.11. Emilio Pagan ERA in 8th inning- 4.76. Pagan has allowed 4 earned runs in 16 innings pitched between the 8th and 9th inning- ERA of 2.25 Duran has allowed 5 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched between the 8th and 9th inning- ERA of 3.19 I'm confused how that equals Pagan being "unreliable" in those innings, but Duran being "lights out."
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I stand by them needing to be healthy and get bullpen help then anything can happen in October, yes.
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I don't know how else to explain this. The stance you're attempting to take here is literally that the hitters would try harder, or become better, if they're down instead of up. If that's the case the team is screwed anyways. I don't care what inning they fall behind in because it doesn't matter. The hitters don't magically get better because they're trailing in the 7th. Either they're going to get hits and score or they aren't. There's no magic boost based on the inning. The Twins got 27 outs today. They scored 2 runs. The Tigers got 24 outs today and scored 3 runs. Claiming the Twins would've scored more than 2 runs in their 27 outs had the Tigers only scored 1 run in their first 24 outs is not the logical argument you think it is.
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Who else should pitch those innings? The answer can't just be Duran. That's the point. Somebody else in the bullpen has to get outs. You wouldn't be here praising Rocco if Pagan had given up the lead in the 6th or 7th instead of the 8th. You'd just be complaining about Rocco using Pagan at all. Right now Duran is the only reliable reliever. You can't use him in every inning. The pen is bad. Nothing Rocco can do to fix that.
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Why is it irrelevant? The point you've been trying to make is "Higher leverage late inning situations exist." They do. The reason guys don't pitch in the 9th isn't because they have "poor control," it's because they can't handle the pressure of those high leverage situations. Emilio Pagan isn't overwhelmed by the situation, he's just not that good. The inning in which he's not that good doesn't matter. Saving Duran for those high leverage situations is pointless if there's no high leverage situation left by the time you want to use him.
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They still got those 9 outs to hit. They didn't score. There is no logical reason to believe they'd score runs during the 7th, 8th, or 9th if they were losing if they didn't score during them when they were winning. They got their entire 27 outs today and they scored 2 runs. The point in the game that they fell behind by 1 run doesn't matter. They scored 2 runs in 27 outs. It wouldn't magically become 4 runs had they fallen behind in the 6th. They didn't score. Period. Extend the lead in the 7th and 8th and that HR doesn't give up the lead.
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So they should've saved him for the 9th? Where he has a 0.87 ERA, but you suggest he can't get late inning outs. The inning he's pitching isn't the concern. Either he can get guys out or he can't. He's got 29 career saves. The late inning isn't scaring him.
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Why? The hitters would actually try in the 7th, 8th, and 9th if they'd been losing?
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I watched them. He didn't give up runs. I'm pretty sure that's his job description.
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Emilio Pagan has an ERA of 0.87 in the 9th inning this year. 13 Ks in 10.1 innings. If that's not him performing at his best I'm excited to see what his best is.
