chpettit19

I see the AL as 4 tiers right now. Early WS contenders: NYY and Houston Solidly in the playoff hunt and currently expect to make it: Twins, Rays, Angels, Jays Will they, won't they tier of teams that could turn it on and make a run at the above 6 teams or collapse into the the middle of the next 5 teams: White and Red Sox, Rangers, Guardians Rebuilding teams with no real hope of jumping into the playoff race: As, Os, Ms, and our friendly division punching bags in Detroit and KC It's most definitely better to be in the 2nd tier than the 3rd tier, but as we get into the dog days of summer the third tier will bleed itself into the 2nd and 4th and we'll have a more defined 3 tiers by the deadline probably.

Everything coming out of Minneapolis suggests the knee is slowly, but surely, getting better. It was worse when he first came back from the missed games right after the injury and he was mashing then. It's entirely possible this is just a slump. He's had some hard hit balls that were at people, or even the very nice catch by Benintendi last night. Obviously a horrible slump and him snapping out of it is hugely important for the Twins, but I'm going to guess they have some pretty smart people making medical decisions about him. From what I read a 10 day IL stint wouldn't be the answer medically. If that's the case then they seem to be doing the right thing. He's still hitting the ball hard so there's hope that it turns around soon.

They are definitely going to need bullpen reinforcements. Maybe sooner than later. Problem is I don't know where that comes from. A trade sounds all well and good, but there has to be a team willing to deal in May, and you rarely find that. I sure hope there's internal conversations about a plan to bolster the pen, though. Canterino ready soon? Alcala still has 2 weeks on the IL, if I'm not mistaken. If Canterino could come up and be a 2 inning guy a couple times a week and Alcala can come back and resemble the guy he was at the end of last year that'd be huge. But I think some prospects need to head out for more established arms at some point. I'd prefer soon, but it's difficult to convince another team to trade guys in May.

If that's the first time you've been told a simple average is not a good statistical measure of small sample sizes with extreme outliers then I'm the first person you've ever talked to that has a decent understanding of statistics. Google standard deviations. It'll blow your mind. And you can use Bauer's standard deviation of 1.599 in your research. It'll tell you that his WAR of 6 was an extreme outlier and not representative of the dataset as a whole. I also showed you this by pointing out that he'd only broken 3 WAR 1 time before he was traded. Again, and for the final time, I haven't said the Indians weren't in contention because they were. That's not what separates the situations. Trevor Bauer had another year of team control left. That made it so a non-contending team was willing to trade for him. That is not the case with Carlos Correa. That makes the situations different. You cannot argue that they're same. They. Are. Not. And, no, Bauer was not in the same tier as Correa is. Not even close. And I've shown it in multiple ways. So, no, I don't acknowledge the Indians example because it isn't the same! Bauer wasn't the same kind of player and he had team control left. The situations were not the same. Your point of view does not have validity because it isn't based on the reality of the situation by any measure. Wade Miley had 5.5 WAR last year, is he a star in Correa's tier? Should we trade Correa straight up for Miley? Oh, and the Twins playing Lewis in LF and at 3B in St Paul is most definitely a sign that their intention is to create space for him at SS by trading Correa. That's clear as day.

Ugh, if only playing 2B instead of SS wasn't so complicated! Just no way for the kid to adjust to such a position shift.

Before the trades, or possible trades in the Correa and Freeman situations, the 4 players in question achieved 3 WAR seasons (according to baseball reference as that's what you appear to be using) this many times: Archer: 1 out of 5 full seasons (not counting his rookie year) Bauer: 1 out of 5 full seasons (not counting his first 2 years as he tried to break in) Freeman: 9 out of 11 full seasons (including the 60 game 2020 season) Correa: 6 out of 7 full seasons (only time he didn't was 2020) I'll do the math for you: That's 20% for Archer and Bauer. 81.8% for Freeman. And 85.7% for Correa. Don't tell me I'm "guestimating" anything. I gave you their total WAR divided by the years they've played in the league by both baseball reference and fangraphs. You tried to spruce it up by making Bauer sound like he had some great career when almost all of his WAR has come from 1 season (28.6% of his career WAR was accumulated in 1 of 10 seasons). Same with Archer as 28.6% of his career WAR was also accumulated in 1 season out of 10. While Freeman and Correa have had great years basically every year of their career. They're not similarly tiered and their trade situations were not similar at all, except for Correa and Freeman. You are yet to provide 1 singular instance of a team leading, or close to leading, their division to trade a star of Correa's caliber at the deadline. It's never happened. Don't call me, or anyone else, naïve because you can't accept that what you're suggesting has never been done before. Have your opinions and stand by them, but quit trying to change the facts of the situations that have been discussed. You're entitled to predict whatever it is you want to predict, but you're not entitled to change the facts of what has taken place.

Ah, I've never read Lin and don't follow Passan closely so makes sense I'd miss those things. I'd love to turn Sano and Wallner into a ML arm, but not Snell. I'd much rather just let Sano walk after the year than pay Snell 16MMM or kick in a prospect for SD to pick up some of his money. Just not a believer in him at all. He was a flash in the pan to me. Darvish for Sano and Wallner with the Padres sending a little money would be intriguing. Kenta coming back next year is an interesting wrinkle in this all. Do they think he can be a solid #2 type arm? Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Ober is a solid start to a rotation. Winder, et al in the 5 spot. Do they want someone like Darvish on the end of a deal for an extra veteran arm or would they be more willing to send just a Wallner type prospect to someone for a rental arm? I've seen some reports of them still talking with the As about Montas and there's murmurs of talks with the Reds about their other arms still. They can go a few different directions with arms. If they're bringing in arms, though, you have to keep Correa (bringing this back around to what this thread is supposed to be about). Don't see them playing the middle ground of getting a prospect for Correa while bringing in arms to compete. If you're going to be in the division race (no reason to think they won't at this point) then bring in reinforcements without sending out one of your big guns.

I'm ending my side of this conversation. You've gone from "Chris Archer and Trevor Bauer are great comps to Correa" to "Freeman is an awful comp to Correa." I appreciate the back and forth as I come to Twins Daily to be challenged and gain more thoughts and ideas about my favorite team. But when the debate turns from guys who average 2.1/2.1 (Bauer with bWAR/fWAR) and 1.4/2 (Archer with bWAR/fWAR) WAR per year being great comps for Correa and his 4.4/3.5 WAR per year but a guy averaging 3.4/3.5 WAR per year being a ridiculous comp I know we've gotten to the point where this has become personal and the conversation is no longer productive. So thank you for the back and forth, but I'm going to see myself out of this conversation now.

They'd approached him with contract offers before the season and knew he wanted a 6 year deal and they were only willing to go 5 on the deal so they knew there was a very good chance they'd lose him after the season. Much like the Twins know there's a very good chance they'll lose Correa after the season. It was so well known that there was a real chance Freddie would leave after the year that they spent the entire postseason talking about it. In fact his last AB in the World Series they said there was a very good chance it'd be his final at bat in a Braves uniform. So, maybe, it's not so different after all ?‍♂️

There's a wonderful thread showing much deserved love to Luis Arraez going on Twins Daily right now, and I wanted to show love to another somewhat underappreciated Twins today as well. Devin Smeltzer takes the mound today and I think he deserves some praise. He's never going to be Santana or Liriano, but Smeltzer is the kind of guy we should point to and tell our kids to strive to be. For those that don't know Devin Smeltzer was diagnosed with pelvic rhabdomyosarcoma when he was 9. He had to have a tumor removed from around his prostate and bladder followed by chemo to defeat the cancer and went into full remission in 2012. It's not the most horrific childhood cancer story anyone has ever hear, but cancer at the age of 9 is cancer at the age of 9. I'm not going to go into his whole life story, but beating cancer before working his tail off to become an MLB draft prospect is inspiring and the type of story we should be promoting to the youth of today. Smeltzer was drafted in the 33rd round in 2014 after graduating high school, but attended Florida Gulf Coast University instead of signing with the Padres. Smeltzer then transferred to San Jacinto College where he had a great season (1.18 ERA and 128 Ks in 91 2/3 innings) before looking to transfer to Texas Tech. Instead the Dodgers took Smeltzer in the 2016 in the 5th round and he agreed to sign with them instead of going to Texas Tech. Smeltzer was traded to the Twins in the Brian Dozier-Logan Forsythe deal in 2018. Smeltzer earned his way to Minneapolis in 2019 where he made 6 starts and 11 total appearances with a 3.86 ERA in 49 innings. We all know what the pitching situation looked like for the Twins that October and it allowed Smeltzer to make his postseason debut as well. Smeltzer made 1 appearance, going 3.1 innings and allowing 0 runs against the Yankees. Smeltzer has dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness the last couple years, but looks to be getting back on track this year. He's thrown 21 innings in St Paul and 10.1 in Minneapolis this year. He's likely not a major difference maker, but his ability to bounce back and forth between St Paul and Minneapolis, and the pen and rotation, should be recognized as the very useful role it is. It lengthens the Twins pitching staff and gives them 1 more weapon who can go out and get outs when needed. He'll likely never be a star, but we need to show love to the "little guys" who just go out and do their job when called upon, even if it's not flashy and out of this world production. I, for one, appreciate Devin Smeltzer and what he brings to the Twins organization. Now let's hope he shreds the Royals today! Lineups: Royals: Merrifield, RF Benintendi, LF Witt Jr, SS Dozier, DH Melendez, C Santana, 1B Rivera, 3B Lopez, 2B Hicklen, CF Twins: Buxton, CF Correa, SS Garlick, LF Sanchez, C Urshela, 3B Arraez, 2B Miranda, 1B Jeffers, DH Celestino, RF Pitchers: Royals: Daniel Lynch, LHP Twins: Devin Smeltzer, LHP

Atlanta definitely should've traded Freddie Freeman at the deadline last year. Not acceptable that they actually tried to win and lost a star for nothing.

I haven't seen those, do you have some sources there? I'd think they'd be willing to trade 1 of those guys if they actually get Snell healthy and Clevinger healthy and Gore continues to look good and Martinez doesn't turn back into a pumpkin. But for the same reason the Twins starting the season with 7 rotation arms on the roster didn't mean they had excess pitching I don't think the Padres automatically have it now either. They've been trying to get money off the books for a while now. Myers and Hosmer are also names that are thrown around a lot. Preller is all in and I have no doubt he's willing to make moves to get them past the Dodgers this year. I'd think Snell is actually a relatively likely trade piece assuming he doesn't go on the IL again and they have their 6 other guys healthy. But he's a negative asset right now. Unless he turns it around dramatically he's not someone I want the Twins to go after unless they're not giving anything up and also getting a prospect with him. He's been injured and bad for SD. He's mostly name recognition at this point. Miguel Sano in pitcher form. Darvish would be an interesting target, though.

I could actually be convinced that them trading a pitcher for an OFer or 2 could happen. I literally said I could be convinced them trading pitching for OF help could happen. I will point out that they had a very similar rotation last year and it completely collapsed and they missed the playoffs so I think you may be overselling their pitching depth. Musgrove is a stud (better than Ryan, but not by a ton), no doubt. But beyond that, Martinez hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2017 when he was awful (sounds like Bundy), Snell hasn't been good or healthy with them (sounds like Archer), Clevinger hasn't been healthy, Darvish hasn't lived up to the hype or contract, Manaea is very solid (sounds like Gray), Gore is a rookie (similar to Ober), and Knehr has an ERA over 7 in 8 AAA starts (Balazovic-esque one could say). Not sure where you're seeing the great depth. That's not much better than the Twins staff, other than having more recognizable names. In fact the Twins have a better ERA this year. Outside of Gore, Knehr and Wilson the Padres don't have any young pitching that's even in AA yet. Wilson is a reliever and I already pointed out Knehr's massive struggles this year. I will acknowledge that Preller is on the edge of desperation when it comes to getting over the Dodgers hump, and that opens the door for some interesting stuff to happen. But I think you're drastically overstating the depth of their pitching. There's a reason people say you can never have too much pitching.

I don't know if your suggestion is that they'd trade excess pitching for Correa or for prospects, but I'll strongly disagree if the idea is that they'd trade it for Correa. They have Tatis Jr, Kim, and CJ Abrams for SS, they have Machado at 3B looking like the MVP this year, and Cronenworth at 2B. Their IF is set for now and the future. I'll say I'd also be shocked to see them trade major league pitching for prospects as they're all in on winning now and not looking to the future beyond not trading their own top prospects. They're not doing anything to lower their major league talent for future assets while they battle LA and SF for the division and WS. I could actually be convinced that them trading a pitcher for an OFer or 2 could happen. Profar-Grisham-Myers is clearly their weak point. I don't find the Twins to be a good match there since they're counting on all their current OFers, that are worth ML pitching, to help now and in the future. Twins could trade Gordon, but he's not fetching anything more than a reliever. But I'll agree Preller is not one to be shy about making moves. Although he didn't make big moves at the deadline last year and is probably more interested in clearing Myers and/or Hosmer (although he's been good this year) off his books than any other moves right now.

A contender, or would-be contender, is not trading major league pitching, especially major league pitching with years of control left, for Correa. That's the entire point. Contenders add at the deadline through trading prospects for major leaguers. The Twins with Correa and some extra arms gotten by trading prospects is better than (and actually realistic) the Twins with no Correa and some extra arms. No contending team has enough pitching that they'd be willing to trade them for a Correa rental, and no non-contending team would pay for a Correa rental at all. The argument that a non-playoff team may jump in the bidding and give up real prospects for him to make it worth the Twins dealing him is suggesting that they weren't willing to give him his 7-10 years and 30-35M per 2 months ago, but 2 months from now they'd not only be willing to do that, but they'd also be willing to give up big time prospects to do what they could've done during the offseason or during next offseason. That's not an overly logical argument.

Turner was part of a bigger trade deal from an awful team to a contending team. Not relevant to a contending Twins team or as a 1 superstar player trade since he was actually the 2nd most important player in the trade. Paul Goldschmidt also traded from awful team to good team, and that trade was in December not at the deadline. So, like all of your trade comparisons so far, not relevant. Evan Longoria was a below average player when he got traded and that was also in December so, again, not relevant. Prince Fielder got traded to get out from under a 7 year deal (hint: that also means he wasn't a rental) and that trade was in November. So, sorry, not relevant. It was also 9 years ago. Robinson Cano was traded in a larger package, had multiple years left on his deal, and was traded in, you guessed it, December! So, again, not. A. Relevant. Trade. Edit to add: Longoria was also not a rental and Tampa paid part of his salary for the next 5 seasons.

So far today I've provided mathematical facts on what it'd take for the Twins to be 9-10 games back in the division at the deadline as that's what that poster had suggested as the cutoff point for trading Correa. Then I provided actual trades of actual star position players similar to Correa over the last few years. You, on the other hand, have provided yet another example of a trade that is in no way relevant to the one you're suggesting there's a 75% chance they'd make. The Twins, like the Rays in your awful Archer comparison, were out of it by the deadline last year. And, yes, Ryan has been great, but Ryan was not a top 100 prospect or top of the Rays system prospect. You're claiming the Yankees would trade one of their elite SS prospects for a Correa rental when they refused to trade them for far more control of Montas and Olson. The problem with suggesting that the person ignore me is 2 fold. 1. That person agrees with me and isn't even suggesting the same things you are, but you're so desperate to find any sort of support for your stance that you think they're on the same page as you. They have been very clear that they wouldn't, and don't think the Twins will, trade Correa if they're still leading, or close to leading, the division. 2. I'm giving facts and real life happenings while you're giving your opinion. You're entitled to your opinion, but your opinions are in no way comparable to the mathematical facts of what it'd take for the Twins to fall out of the division race by the deadline or the facts of what trades have taken place in the past. Your opinions don't outweigh my facts even if you're like them to.

If they're 9-10 back by the break/deadline they need to trade everyone. Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kepler, Gray, Ryan, everyone. That'd mean they absolutely collapsed in epic fashion. The trade deadline could be as late as Aug 3rd. The Twins have a 5.5 game lead as of this second. They have 65 games between now and then (including today's game and the game on the 3rd). If they play 1 game under .500 in that stretch (32-33) Chicago would have to go 47-18 (that's a 72.3% winning percentage, NYY best in baseball at 69.8% right now) during the same stretch to create that 15 game difference. If that happens they need to fold up shop and contract the team. That's kind of why so many of us are so strong on the idea that there's almost no chance he's traded since Chicago would have to go from the .500 team they currently are to a basically .750 team over the next 2 months to even have a chance at creating real separation in the division.

Examples of recent star position players on expiring deals trades: Manny Machado to LA: Baltimore received Yusniel Diaz (in the mid 80s for global prospects at the time), Dean Kremer, Rylan Bannon, Zach Pop and Breyvic Valera. So 1 back end of the top 100 prospect lists prospect and 4 so-so prospects. Kris Bryant to SF: Chicago received Caleb Killian and Alexander Camargo. Neither top 100 prospects. Canario was in the 9, 10, 11 area of system prospects for the Giants and Killian was 29, 30, 31 area of system prospects. Javy Baez to NYM: Chicago received Pete Crow-Armstrong (75-85 range for top 100 prospects). Chicago also sent swing man Trevor Williams in the deal. Anthony Rizzo to NYY: Chicago received Alexander Vizcaino and Kevin Alcantara. Both around the 9-12 area for prospects in the Yankees system. So the best piece anyone received was a guy in the 75-115 area of global prospects. Of the teams you listed you're looking at Joey Wiemer (Mil), Miguel Vargas (LAD), Austin Wells (NYY), Ryan Pepiot (LAD), Anthony Vargas (NYY), Alex Ramirez (NYM), James Wood (SD). The Angels don't have anyone in the top 100. They're an awful system. None of the guys they'd get in return would be better than Lewis, Martin, Miranda, Winder, Duran, or Balazovic. Is that worth it? Is 1 prospect who'd slot in somewhere in the back half of the system's top 10 be so overwhelming that the FO is willing to trade Carlos Correa in the middle of a playoff season?

The Mets moving Lindor off SS for the rest of the year and pushing their luxury tax bill even higher? With Cohen I guess anything is possible, but I think I'd take them off the list and it's the Angels or Cardinals as options. With Xander Bogaerts likely available as well. Not exactly a SS seller's market there.

I'm hoping to see a couple arms (pen and/or starters) added at some point.

Yeah, I think your assumption that they'd get anything massive in return is probably flawed. Recent trades of rental players have returned, at best, 1 prospect in the 75-115 range of global prospects and some filler here and there. I'd take 3 months of CC over 1 prospect that wouldn't even be top 5 in the Twins system most likely.

That's why I think it's so outlandish that people think he should or will be traded. He's a rental and there's not going to be a huge market for him so they're not getting anything crazy in return. If the Yankees wouldn't trade Volpe, Peraza, or Dominguez for 2 years of Montas or for a year of Olson they're not trading them for half a season of Correa. As @nicholas Anderson points out the Cubs didn't exactly get a ton for Bryant last year (he's not a SS and quite to the level of Correa, but they got a barely top 10 org prospect for him so Correa isn't getting a top 3 prospect). Manny Machado brought back quantity over quality (Baltimore was run by an awful FO at the time so that should be considered). Diaz was a back end of the top 100 prospect so maybe the Twins can get someone in that range for Correa? Luis Gil is around that area so seems realistic (TJ obviously changes that some and that's why it was partly a joke). Cubs also got a back end of the top 100 prospect for Javy Baez and Trevor Williams last year. So the best they Twins could hope for is a guy in the 75-115 range of global prospects and maybe some flier type guys thrown in. I don't think that's enough. And that's assuming there's more than 1 team willing to trade for a top SS and they can't get Xander Bogaerts for less from Boston.

Luis Gil. And I'm only partly joking about that. There's actually a decent chance he'd be the best prospect they're willing to give up for a Correa rental.

I haven't contended that the Indians weren't trying to compete, I've contended that that still doesn't prove your point as they traded a mid-rotation arm with another year of control to a rebuilding team for 2 major league pieces and a flier prospect. My problem is you trying to compare that to trading a superstar SS with no future control for prospects. They aren't the same thing. At all. You claim to have this great understanding of this front office and are using that as the basis of your opinion yet you're confused by them trading a reliever for a starter and reliever if they're trying to contend. The most obvious thing about this FO is that they find relievers to be incredibly expendable and replaceable. And they've been incredibly successful with that strategy since they were able to get their manager and pitching coach into place. They don't ask for Pagan back in that trade if they're not trying to win. They ask for a better prospect than the arm they got or they ask for another prospect instead of Pagan. Your own arguments just constantly disprove your other ones. If that trade was all about an eye on the future they don't ask for Pagan. You're using your valuation of Rogers in that trade equation instead of theirs. They don't think you need big time relievers. That's the reconciliation and explanation of that trade. They thought Paddack and Pagan gave them a better chance to win in 2022 (and beyond is a nice bonus) than just Rogers.