chpettit19

That's a frustrating inning.

They're for Lou Gehrig day.

Hard to argue with that. He has not been good at hitting baseballs for a while now.

The problem with Buxton's specific injury is that it's not just a "sit and rest and it'll heal" injury. Putting him on the IL means he's out for 6-8 weeks. The injury is healing through limited playing time and treatment. If you're ready to miss him for 2 months ok, but just be aware that's the timeline you're looking at.

So the former player who "has stayed close to the game" is right, but the current, active players on the Twins roster that you're complaining about not playing enough who have actively said they're on board with the playing time situation are wrong? And my point is lost? Come on. The players themselves aren't complaining. Again, is the picture in your head that the players are upset with playing time and how they're being used, but Rocco is simply ignoring them? Is that what you think is happening? Buxton and Correa are going into Rocco's office throwing a fit and Rocco tells them to shut up and sit down? Then Correa turns around and tells the press that anyone complaining about the situation doesn't know **** about baseball, but he thinks he's being misused? They stick to the same top of the order against righties when they're all healthy and the same top of the lineup against lefties when they're healthy. The Twins don't have a ton of guys that are drastically better than the other players on the roster. Buxton, Correa, and Polanco need to play everyday. And they do when they're right. Kepler, Arraez, and Larnach need to start against every righty. And they do when they're right. Garlick and Sanchez need to start against every lefty. And they do when they're right. Jeffers needs to spell Sanchez. And he does when he's right. Gordon needs to spell everyone in the OF and an IF spot or 2 here and there. And he does when he's healthy. You're misrepresenting the situation. Kepler has earned everyday player status this year and he plays everyday when he's healthy. So the Twins have 4 guys who deserve to play everyday and Sanchez who's close. Those guys play everyday. Larnach is sneaking up on that status, but due to injuries he's getting it even if he hasn't fully earned it yet. The rest of the roster need to be used in the situations that allow them to thrive the most. And they are. Until injuries force Garlick to start against righties, Miranda to play at all, Gordon to play nearly everyday, or Jeffers to DH. When everyone is healthy they're all used in the roles that they fill best. I don't care if literally every player from the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00s are saying the exact same thing. The players in 2022 are not. Not every pitcher is on the same pitch count (but literally every pitcher does need a pitch count and they did when Kaat was playing, too, the counts are just different). Not every player gets as many "days off." You're the one trying to lump them all together. Kepler and Polanco have been used very differently since '19 than Buxton and Sano and Arraez. Ryan has been used very differently this year than Archer. Berrios has been at the top of innings pitched lists every season. He was used much different than Ober last year. The Twins adjust based on the player and their needs and the situations that they perform best in. That currently means Buxton needs more rest than him or the team would like, but that's the nature of the beast. Same with Kepler and Polanco right now.

Loving the questions about our backgrounds around TD lately. I played baseball from the time I could walk until the arm finally gave out at the age of 30 (or at least that's when I accepted it had given out and nobody wanted to put up with me in the dugout anymore). Played football and basketball through high school. Now days it's just an embarrassing round of golf or game of softball from time to time for me. Twins are due for an 8 spot today. So let's hope they get to at least 2.

Players have a routine and know if they're playing ahead of time. Us not knowing doesn't mean Rocco sits in his office, hotel room, house, whatever and schemes up plans to keep things hidden from his players. Arraez knows he doesn't start against lefties. Correa and Buxton know when their scheduled days off are (I hate them being on the same day and they should adjust the plan when that happens). Garlick knows he doesn't start against righties. The pen guys know which days they'll be likely to be called on and in what situations. The players know. Their routines are daily routines no matter what their role in the lineup is. They go out there everyday (outside of starting pitchers who have their own routine) and go through the same stretching, hitting, fielding, running, trainers room, weight room, etc. routine every single day. They have their routine. Back when Kaat was playing they didn't even have half the stuff the players do now. I just don't get what people think the Twins are doing. The players already know if they're starting today or not. You and I not knowing doesn't mean the team doesn't know. Kaat not being privy doesn't mean the team isn't. As for playing through injuries/while hurt, there's different levels to it. Buxton's specific knee injury isn't healed by rest. Putting him on the IL to rest until he's near 100% puts him out until after the All Star break probably. He's improving with rest days and treatment while also being able to play (although he's terrible so maybe they should sit him just to get his timing back). Kepler doesn't need 10 days to get over his injury so just needed a DH day and a rest day here and their. Why have him miss an extra week? Correa is on the covid list. No options there. Polanco has been dealing with the same ankle problems for most of his career. The answer is surgery which would take him off the team the majority of the year or play through it since he knows he can since he's been doing it most of his career. Replacing those guys with healthy minor leaguers is very much worse. The team is decimated by covid and injury list guys right now. It happens. They're still leading the division. There's still 110 games left. Let's all just relax a little instead of freaking out over 2 games without almost all of the 5 best players on the team.

You're just ignoring my entire first paragraph here. The Twins best players are hurt. So, no, I didn't defeat my own point. The point is that every team's lineup changes constantly. Due to injuries sometimes. Due to guys with massive platoon splits. Due to guys going through slumps. Due to bench guys needing to get some ABs or regulars just needing a breather. When healthy the Twins went Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco against righties basically everyday. They mixed and matched on the back end some based on who was catching or who was playing LF or who was hitting well, etc. But they had a regular lineup base that they built off of. But now 2 of those top 4 are hurt and 1 is out with covid and people are mad the Twins are adjusting. The point is to make up for not having the same talent level as the Dodgers the Twins, and most other teams, have to find ways to make up the gap. They do that by using a variety of relievers while not letting the big time lineups see their starter more than twice (fire Rocco!) and by finding any platoon split advantage they can throughout the game, starting from inning 1 (fire Rocco!). Teams without All Stars 1-9 in their lineup need to switch guys in and out to find slight advantages where they can. The Twins need to switch their lineup up more than the Dodgers to find the advantage. The Dodgers having superior players means they can just plug in their top 9 and go while the Twins need to have more strategy. But, again, when healthy, the Twins have a top of the lineup that they stick with pretty darn consistently. One of my favorite things in the world are everyday Joes like us on the internet claiming we're so much smarter than the entire professional baseball industry. Its fascinating that people think they're so much smarter than the Twins and Rocco. Like we have even 1/10th of the data they do or have spoken to the players in the clubhouse. So fascinating.

Be mad at Buxton and Correa. They've openly spoken about how this is the strategy they want to follow. Buxton is hurt right now. I don't know how anyone could watch him run and not know he's hurt. That knee isn't right. He wants to have rest days while getting treatment and playing through it. Kepler is hurt right now. Don't know how anyone can watch him run and not know he's hurt. He's also playing through it so needed a rest day. Correa has covid so the league won't let him play. Polanco missed multiple games cuz his ankle is acting up. Don't know how anyone could watch him swing and not know he's hurt. Those are the 4 best hitters on the team. 1 is completely out (after having been injured earlier in the year on a HBP, can't really blame Rocco for that), and the other 3 are all trying to play through injury. Not sure how that's Rocco's fault. (I do hate resting Correa and Buxton on the same day, though) Do people really think the players are sitting around enraged that they have no idea when they're going to play or what spot in the order they'll hit in and Rocco is telling them to f off? Is that the situation people are picturing in their head? Do they think professional athletes in 2022 are afraid to speak up when they don't like something? So I am saying Kaat doesn't know what he's talking about. It's not the 60s-80s anymore. Anyone think the Dodgers aren't the best team in baseball? Over the last 7 days they've used 7 different lineups. 7 days. 7 different lineups. Yankees a pretty good offense? Last 7 days, 7 different lineups. This is how baseball is played now. Or should those teams fire their managers, too? Can we please, please, please, please, please, please, please quit blaming Rocco Baldelli for how baseball is played in 2022? And for the record, I wouldn't care if they fired Rocco tomorrow cuz I don't think he's anything special. But this is how basically every major league team is run now. It's time to accept it.

No problem! Needed a distraction from work for a bit so figured I'd look some stuff up.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Two starting pitchers with sub-3.50 ERAs facing each other in a June MLB game that weren't drafted in the first round?! Or second round?! Or third, fourth, or fifth rounds?! This is crazy! Bailey Ober, the 2017 12th round pick out of College of Chaleston, will face Tarik Skubal, the 2018 9th round pick out of Seattle University, tonight in Detroit, MI. Bailey and Tarik took different routes to the majors after being drafted, but both were guys that returned to school after being drafted in a round in the 20s (Bailey 23, Tarik 29). After their return to school both saw a jump in their draft stock and were drafted significantly higher before starting their pro careers. Tarik took the "top prospect" route. He dominated the low minors in 2019 and saw himself fly up prospect rankings. He made his debut in 2020, and pitched 32 not very good innings in 7 starts. He graduated from rookie/prospect status in 2021 (finishing as high as the #4 system prospect, and 22 global prospect according to Fangraphs) when he made 29 starts and threw 149.1 much better innings of 4.34 ERA ball. He's propelled himself to the front of the Tiger rotation in 2022 as he carries a 2.44 ERA through 9 starts while striking out more than 1 an inning. Bailey went with the "unheralded prospect" journey for his minor league career. Bailey topped out as the 23rd best Twins prospect in 2021 (again, according to Fangraphs' rankings). Ober also graduated from rookie/prospect status in 2021 while throwing 92.1 somewhat surprising innings over 20 starts with a 4.19 ERA while striking out more than 1 an inning. Bailey made a jump forward this season in performance, but the injury bug has bit him a little as well. Injuries have been a bit of the story of his career so far, but if he can maintain his current 3.25 ERA for 20 or so more starts this season I think we'd all be very happy. They weren't top prospects and their journeys post-draft weren't quite the same, but I think both the Tigers and Twins are quite happy with the players Tarik and Bailey have worked so hard to become. Today's game feels like a big one for the Twins as they are nearing the end of their division game run before heading out east to take on the unbeatable monsters that roam the AL East. The following lineups are not full of overly inspiring names so there's a chance we see these 2 young arms put up some Ks today. Although, my hope is Tarik hits a bit of a stumbling block and doesn't make it out of the 4th. Pitchers: MIN: Bailey Ober, 1-1, 3.25 ERA DET: Tarik Skubal, 3-2, 2.44 ERA Hitters: MIN: LF- Kyle Garlick DH- Gary Sanchez 2B- Jorge Polanco 3B- Gio Urshela RF- Trevor Larnach 1B- Jose Miranda C- Ryan Jeffers SS- Jermaine Palacios CF- Nick Gordon DET: RF- Willi Castro SS- Harold Castro 2B- Jonathan Schoop DH- Miguel Cabrera 1B- Spencer Torkelson LF- Kody Clemens 3B- Jeimer Candelario C- Tucker Barnhart CF- Dereck Hill Go Twins!

Certainly plays a role. It's all very small sample sizes, but yeah, leadoff hitters have killed him.

From what I've seen out of him it looks to me like he loses steam pretty quick. His 1st time through an order vs 2nd is also not pretty. It's part of why I think a move to the pen could answer a couple problems at once. 1st time through the order he's given up a .203/.259/.405/.665 slash line. 2nd time through his line is .283/.377/.500/.877. Now we're talking small sample sizes with 81 PAs first time through and 69 2nd time through (has 4 3rd time through PAs over 2 games and he's walked 2 and given up a double in those 4 PAs). He's also been much better with more rest. He's made 4 starts on regular 4 days rest and they've been bad. 2 starts on 5 days rest have been not great. 3 starts on 6+ days have been by far his best. Interesting thing with his pitch count performance as he's been bad pitches 1-25, really good pitches 26-50, and brutal pitches 51+. Looking at all these kinds of things together and he feels like a reliever to me right now. Maybe he can be a 2 inning guy. Give him a clean inning and let him rip once through a lineup. Maybe he can turn into a reliable pen weapon for the second half of the year. The question is how willing he would be to make that switch and if they have enough healthy arms to allow for it. But his numbers certainly don't look like pitches 80-100 would be pretty.

I wonder if they'll have a talk with him about a role in the pen. Could he gain a tick of velo on the fastball in an inning or 2 instead of 4? Could he use his slider 65% of the time for an inning or 2 and get outs? I'm not worried about him being able to handle the pressure of late inning work so it'd come down to being able to control his pitches for an inning or 2 and use his slider a ton. I think it'd be worth a conversation as arms come back healthy.

Love seeing Noah Miller on these kinds of lists. I think he's the SS of the future for the Twins as he'll push Lewis off since he'll be (already is?) a better defender there. Maybe Lewis slides over to 2B when Polanco's deal is up and Miller takes over SS? Whatever the situation is I think Miller pushes Lewis somewhere else in a few years. Spencer Steer seems to just be doing whatever he has to do to get to Minneapolis. And by the looks of it he's going to make it there relatively soon. He has some obstacles in his way to get onto the 40-man and finding a spot to play with the big boys, but with the way the injuries are going these days he may be needed next week. Or he may be a trade piece come July. Will be interesting to continue to follow his journey this year.

He's not an everyday starter so @ashbury suggested taking out the other team's non-everyday starter to compare things. That's how you'd compare things. A comparison of the Twins' less than best lineup vs the other team's best lineups isn't a great measure of anything at all. For your own peace of mind I'll let you know the Twins have 565 total PAs against left handed pitchers this year. Kyle Garlick has 32 of them. That's 5.66% of their ABs. He's got 3 HRs in those 32 ABs so he's certainly helped. I'm not going to take the time to run the numbers without his 32 PAs, but I'm quite certain his whopping 5.66% of PAs isn't going to significantly change the overall stats. Oh, and as for Rocco and the overall results of his career to this point, the Twins are top 10 in baseball in both pitching (8th) and hitting (4th) fWAR since he took over. 2019 must've been crazy good to still be carrying them to top 10 rankings in both pitching and hitting 3 years later. He has a 240-195 W-L record. That's good for a 55.2% winning percentage. That's good for a 89/90 win season on average. 2019 really propping that up, too. He has seasons of 62.3% and 60% winning percentages and is at 58.8% this year. So if you're taking the entirety of his time here into consideration you must be looking at different results than me. And I don't even like Rocco that much. Think he's just another guy as a manager. But the stats show his results have been pretty darn impressive. Even with 2021 being a complete disaster.

Sands has a pretty decent breaking ball (6 inches more horizontal break than the average curveball in the majors) and it gets a higher whiff rate than any Joe Ryan pitch. His fastball is hit hard about the same as Ryan's (39.3% for Ryan, 40.0% for Sands). His "expected" numbers (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) on his fastball and curveball are better than Ryan on his fastball and slider. But the actual results against his curve (on 41 pitches and 12 PAs that ended in curves) are far worse. First inning he gives up an 84 MPH single through an open left side for a single. Bummer, but it happens. Hangs a curve that gets pounded by Schoop. 2-0 quick. 2nd he gives up a 2 out "single" that was hit right at Polanco at 71.8 MPH. Should've been out of that mess. Giving up 2 instead of 4 would look much better. Facing 2 fewer hitters in the 2nd would've save him pitches and maybe he gets through an extra inning. Better control definitely would've made his life easier, though. Throws far too many completely noncompetitive pitches. Now before anybody yells at me, I'm not suggesting he was great or should even stay up. He needs to go back down and has more work to do. I'm not sold that Kaat has some miracle answer that the Twins staff and technology haven't picked up on, but it never hurts to have an outside pair of eyes give you a little info in case it helps. But there are some promising signs in some of his pitch data that suggests he's not a lost cause. Just a guy who isn't ready yet. Needs to tighten up his control in the minors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have some nice outings at some point in his career.

Great outing by Smeltzer. Not exactly facing murderers row today, but nearly 7 innings was huge. He's earned more starts and I hope they don't send him back down as arms come back.

Yes, the bottom 2 in the central were awful. The Dodgers had the easiest schedule in all of baseball in 2019 and won 3 more games than the Twins. The point is that every team plays a lot of crappy teams. I'm not suggesting the 2019 Twins were as good as the Dodgers or Astros or Yankees, but they were a very good team and get falsely labelled as a team saved by 307 HRs when in reality they did well at everything until the wheels fell off in the playoffs due, in large part, but not exclusively, to injuries and Pineda cheating.

The Yankees got to play the Blue Jays and Orioles that year. The Astros got to play the Rangers, Angels, and Mariners that year. Let's not act like the Twins were the only team facing bad division foes. It's definitely different playing playoff teams, but losing Buxton, Donaldson, Gibson (from the rotation, not roster all together) and Pineda down the stretch changed that series dramatically. The Twins had a good team that year. The playoffs were a 3 game sample size without their 2 best offensive players or their number 2 and 3 starters. That's a tough spot for any team to be in. Agree on point number 2. ?

It takes 2 to tango, as they say. I have no idea if the FO wants to make deals now (I agree they should be looking for upgrades right now), but it doesn't matter if nobody is willing to trade now. Rebuilding teams want to create bidding wars to be able to get as much return as possible in prospect capital. And contending teams want to pay as little as possible so aren't going to offer up more prospect capital in early June than they want to. It's not so much a Twins FO thing as it is a baseball business thing. Trades for elite relievers or starters (I'm assuming you're not just asking for more mid-level guys like the Twins are full of, but actual difference makers) just don't happen now.

Agree he earned the boos (although I found it funny that Boston fans booed him while Cora manages their team), but if the team is affected by boos to Correa on the road they're not mentally tough enough to succeed in the playoffs with or without him. Those guys deal with boos, and far worse, everyday of their careers. They should be able to handle those boos just fine. I think everyone agrees they need pen help, but a superstar SS for a reliever is not a good trade. And no contender is throwing multiple of their top relievers into a deal for Correa. Fixing the bullpen should be done with mid-level prospects, not the starting major league SS. If you're going to build up the weak part of the roster you don't do it by weakening the strong part of the roster.

This is where I'm at, too. Signing him opened a whole new world to the Twins. It lead the way to the Buxton and Correa deals. And statistically he performed to the levels of a player making what he made. If we're not happy with the Donaldson deal would we be happy with any big money signing? The personality, clubhouse presence stuff is a very real part of team building, but none of us can speak to that since we're not in that room. I get why people point at him as the problem, and it very well may be true, but I'm not laying that entirety of the disaster that was 2021 at the feet of Josh Donaldson. He was so bad in the clubhouse Alex Colome completely forgot how to get outs for the first month and a half? JA Happ got so fed up with him he turned into A+ level pitcher for 2 months? Shoemaker turned into me because he didn't like the way Josh Donaldson handled his business in the clubhouse? I'm not buying that.

The 2019 team didn't have much of a problem pitching either. 9th in baseball in ERA. 4th in baseball in pitching fWAR. 4th in baseball in FIP. 5th in baseball in xFIP. The 2019 team had a late season suspension and injury problem. They then went on to score 7 runs in 3 postseason games (issue hitting) while giving up 23 (issue pitching). But the 2019 regular season Twins were very good at pitching and hitting. Postseason 2019 Twins were very bad at both.

What is our definition of imminent here? From what I've been reading Alcala should be pretty close to ready to go when his 60-day sentence runs out in 10 days or so. That's not today or tomorrow, but if he's back in 2 weeks I think that's a huge boost to the pen. I spent much of the weekend enjoying adult beverages so it's quite possible I've missed some reports since Saturday, but isn't his return pretty imminent? I think a trade or 2 will definitely be needed, but I'm not expecting those anytime soon. Teams simply don't trade good trade pieces before July. The selling teams need bidding wars for their veteran pieces and you can't drive the cost up in early June like you can at the end of July. The FO may want to make moves now, but they very likely don't have the option, unless they're willing to trade much better prospects than they should for relievers. So the question to me is more about how quickly they turn to starting pitching prospects as major league relievers, or turn to a piggy back situation to save bullpen arms an extra day. Canterino being the most likely "starter debuts as reliever" candidate to me while Bundy and Archer seem to be perfectly suited to piggy back each other for all 9 innings of a game.