chpettit19

Look, it's not crazy to suggest it's possible they trade Correa. What's crazy is saying it's not only likely, but a 75% chance. "I don't have all the answers" is a reasonable stance, but you better have more than "Arizona may be willing to trade elite prospects for the chance to try to jump multiple of SF, SD, LA, STL, MIL and hold off PHI and ATL" as answers. The Yankees aren't trading elite prospects for half a season of Correa. They wouldn't trade them for 2 full seasons of Montas (and you claim, falsely, that "WS are won generally by elite pitching") so I'm not sure why you're so confident they'd be willing to trade them for half a season of Correa. I have no problem with you thinking there's a chance. But you haven't provided 1 realistic scenario based on actual events that have taken place. I'm all for bold takes (I spent all offseason claiming Royce Lewis would be basically ready from the jump this year so I've had my bold takes), but I need more answers than "they aren't elite" followed by suggestions that other non-elite teams would dump elite prospects for him for half a season.

I never said they had an "extremely slim to no chance in the playoffs." I said I think they need some extra arms to improve their chances, that's not the same thing. My stance on the playoffs is that you get in and take your chances. The Twins have 2 WS titles and were by no means "elite" teams those years and were expected to get bounced in the first round even after they made the playoffs. I'm sure glad they didn't take the chance to improve their team down the road and trade guys away those years. As for the Indians, as was pointed out above, they were dumping payroll. They dropped $30M in payroll from 2019 to 2020. They had extra motivation to move their mid-rotation arm for multiple OFers where they had huge holes. That trade wasn't made to improve their chances when their "window was actually open," it was to move a guy who was a clubhouse problem and was at best their 3rd best starter, but more likely 4th best arm. Again, not comparable to Carlos Correa being the Twins' superstar, platinum glove winning SS. When is their window actually going to be open? What if Lewis can't maintain a 162 OPS+ over more than 11 games? I don't think you're going to find many people who think he's ever going to be a platinum glove winner so he's not catching CC defensively. I'm a huge Royce believer and want him up now, but I'm not even close to suggesting he's a sure thing already. What if Kirilloff's wrist never gets better? What if Miranda never hits like he did in 2021? What if Larnach starts flailing away at breaking stuff again? What if Buxton gets hurt each of the next 7 years? What if the starters in the system don't work out? What is their "actual" window? 2023? 2024? 2027? If it's 2023 and/or 2024 you're asking for a contender to need a SS and be willing to trade AAA players/guys who will be ready end of this year or early next who are better than the guys the Twins already have that will need to join the 40-man next year. So now you're not only trading Correa, but also adding even more players to the list of guys you're going to risk losing in the Rule V or to waivers as you bounce people off the 40-man. No rebuilding team is going to want him for the same reason you're suggesting the Twins should trade him. I assume they wouldn't trade him in the division. Tampa doesn't need a SS (that Franco kid is pretty good). The Yanks would've just signed him if they wanted him and they've turned down the chance to trade their top prospects for all the As guys so find it hard to believe they'd suddenly trade them for half a season of Correa. Houston doesn't need him and wouldn't pay him before the year so doubt they're trading stud prospects for him. Maybe the Angels want him? Mets have Lindor so they're not trading for him. Philly has their 24 year old, top prospect SS in the bigs already, and you think Lewis is one of the reasons the Twins would trade Correa so by that logic Bryson Stott is a reason Philly wouldn't trade for him. Milwaukee would never do a move like that. Maybe the cards? Dodgers, Pads, and Giants don't need SSs. So you have maybe the Angels and Cards? You think that's enough to drive up the prospect price so high that it's worth trading Correa? Cards top prospect is already in the bigs so they're not trading Gorman. Maybe they trade Walker who's multiple years away still. Libatore also already in the bigs so not trading him. Herrera is their Yadi replacement and already in the bigs. So maybe they can build a package around Walker and Winn (a no hit, glove only SS) who are both multiple years away from making the bigs? The Angels don't have a top prospect above AA. Most of their top guys are in A ball. So they're real far away. That's what you want in return for Correa? A ball lottery tickets who could be ready in 2025 if they even make it beyond AA? Edit to add: Boegarts is almost surely going to be traded as the Red Sox have been terrible and they have Story to replace him. So now there's another star SS available which would drive the price down since if a team doesn't want to pay a crazy prospect price for Correa they'd just call the Sox about Boegarts. Even more reason why Correa won't be traded.

I've never claimed this is an elite team so not sure what that has to do with anything. My claim is they're a playoff team and adding at the deadline would give them a chance in the playoffs. And, yes, the Rays got a great return for Archer. The Pirates were blasted for it at the time and have been ever since. It was one of the worst trades in baseball history. If the FO is planning on finding another team to have an all-time bad trade I wish them good luck. But none of that even matters. Because, as I pointed out, the Rays were not competing! They were 20 games out of their division. Not 2. Not 5. Not 10. Not 15. 20 games. They weren't 1 or 2 games back in the wild card. Not 5. Not 8. 10 games back of the wild card. They weren't competing. It. Is. Not. The. Same. Situation. For the Twins to be 20 back in the division by the deadline they'd have be fall apart so tragically that the entire team should probably retire and the team should be contracted. The Rays were 20 back. I can't emphasize that enough. They were not competing.

Tampa Bay was 20 games back in their division and 10 games back of the 2nd wild card spot when they traded Chris Archer. Please stop comparing that to a team leading their division (or within a couple games) like we're expecting the Twins to be based on their current situation. They are not remotely close to the same thing. And Trevor Bauer had had 1 season with an ERA under 4 before he was traded. He wasn't having a "down year" he was having a career norm year. So please stop comparing him to Carlos Correa. He's not remotely the same player.

If they're in the mix for the division at the deadline (at this point it's hard to imagine them falling apart so bad that they aren't), I'd hope the plan is to add to the team, not subtract. I don't think they're so far off from being able to compete in the playoffs that they decide to trade Correa over going and getting a big time pen arm or 2 and another starter let's say. The reports out there are that they're still talking with the As off and on about Montas. I'd think that's a sign that they'd look to add at the deadline, not trade away the 2nd best player on the team.

It's hard to say who I'd extend as I don't know their job duties. I know it's a very collaborative effort, but I don't know what the hard lines are or what they're each responsible for. They're always combined as 1 person basically (Falvine!) when we discuss them as fans, but is that how it should actually be for the Pohlads when they come to decision making? Whoever's responsible for the development systems they've put in place should have a place locked up moving forward as I think they've knocked that out of the park. Roster decisions have been a little more hit or miss. Not enough that I'd be looking to move on from them because of the decisions (fans act like 2021 was the norm for them and not the outlier), but it hasn't been as clear of a win as I see their development systems being. Overall I'd extend them. I don't think they're perfect, but they've done quite well overall in their time here. 85-77 (coming off a 103 loss season), 78-84, 101-61, 36-24 (another 100 win pace), 73-89 (yikes), 26-16 is a pretty solid stretch. Pitching: In 2016 the Twins had a 5.09 ERA which tied them with Arizona for worst in the league. In 2017 Falvine took over and here's the ERA and league ranking since: (bold seasons are when Rocco and Wes took over) 2017- 4.60 ERA (19th in baseball) 2018- 4.50 ERA (22nd) 2019- 4.18 ERA (9th best ERA in baseball, but the 307 HRs was the only reason they won, obviously) 2020- 3.58 ERA (4th) 2021- 4.83 ERA (26th, ouch) 2022- 3.41 ERA (8th, back on track!) Looks to me like Rocco and Wes have been pretty solid at managing a pitching staff ?‍♂️ Hitting: In 2016 the Twins scored 722 runs which was good for 16th in baseball. They had a wRC+ of 95 which tied them for 18th in baseball. Since Falvine took over they've ranked as such: (bold seasons again when Rocco took over) 2017- 815 runs (7th in baseball), 103 wRC+ (6th in baseball) 2018- 738 runs (13th), 96 wRC+ (15th) 2019- 939 runs (2nd), 116 wRC+ (3rd) 2020- 269 runs (18th), 101 wRC+ (16th) 2021- 729 runs (15th), 101 wRC+ (11th) 2022- 183 runs (11th), 113 wRC+ (6th) So hitting hasn't been as good (outside of 2019), but not terrible (interesting that they get so much heat for the pitching yet the hitting has been worse compared to the rest of the league). To me a FO and manager/coaching staff that produce top 10 pitching staffs 75% of the time are worthy of keeping around for a while. Not sure what else you expect from a mid-market team. I think the 0-18 distorts a lot of opinions and then the pain and shock of 2021 haven't worn off yet. And, yes, winning in the playoffs is what matters, but dumping 0-18 all on them isn't reasonable. If you ignored that and just look at what they've done compared to the rest of the league during 5+ regular seasons I don't think there'd be any question about extending them.

I'm a "small hall" and "there aren't 30 aces in baseball" guy. I think it should be hard to get into the hall of fame and I think being called an ace, as opposed to a #1, should mean you're head and shoulders above your peers. Hard to put hard numbers on it, because it changes from year to year (like some years a 3.30 ERA is great, but sometimes there's 75 guys with a 3.30 or lower ERA). I think if you use a stat like WAR you probably have your best bet. To me an ace needs to accrue at least 5 WAR in a season. If you do it for 1 year that makes you an ace that season, but not a "true ace." To be a "true ace" you need to do it for multiple years in a row. Examples: deGrom is obviously an ace when healthy, but hasn't been staying healthy so at this point just has certain seasons of being an ace. Scherzer has put up at least 5 WAR for 8 straight seasons (taking 2020 out for obvious reasons). So he's a "true ace." Patrick Corbin was an ace in 2018, and was close in 2019, but outside of that hasn't been so he just had an ace season, but isn't a "true ace." 5 WAR for a season means there's usually 7-12 or so aces in the game in any given season.

Going back to 2000 there have been 3 times the AL has had repeat appearances in the WS. KC 14-15, Texas 10-11, and the tail end of the NYY 4 straight trips 98-01. The NL has had repeat appearances in the WS 2 times. Dodgers 17-18 and Phillies 08-09. Since 2000 the WS participants have actually been very varied compared to other sports and the majority of major league history.

I believe the move was Vallimont DFA and Megill taking the 40-man spot.

It's a tweet. They're limited on how many characters they have. It's 1 of dozens they send out during a game. And the name is a link to that player's twitter page. Not much they can do about the restraints of twitter unless they have roughly $44 billion and want to buy twitter.

The pitching is definitely the part I question most. I think a bullpen arm or 2 are going to be needed at some point and I think another starter or 2 will also be needed. Maybe someone like Canterino can be one of the pen arms if he holds up, but I think a rental starter or 2 will be needed. I haven't checked out the arms on the last year of control that could be available yet, but there's always a couple. I think the offense is mostly good enough now, if they can stay healthy. And I'm not sold on that. But I don't know how you prepare much more for injuries. If Kirilloff is figuring things out and healthy and Lewis is ready that's probably the best sort of depth they can ask for right now. Hard to make any trades for bats unless someone goes down for an extended period of time. Maybe a JD Martinez makes sense at the deadline, but he's a DH only and that sort of hamstrings their use of Sanchez (if he turns back into a pumpkin I don't care, but he's good right now), Garlick, and Buxton half rest days. So I expect them to win the division, but they need some pitching reinforcements to make noise in the playoffs. But all you can do is get in the tourney and see what happens. And, yes, I know, 0-18, but that doesn't change the fact that anything can happen in the playoffs and a hot streak at the right time can lead an 88 win team to a championship. Just get in the playoffs.

Is the suggestion that Rocco should constantly warmup 2 relievers at all times? Seems like an awful lot of unnecessary throws on all of their arms. When you put a reliever in for a clean inning you're not going to have another guy up and throwing immediately. There's a needed gap in time to get another guy loose and ready to go before you can take a reliever out. The Twins lead all of baseball in bullpen WPA. So arguing that Rocco doesn't manage his pen well is suggesting that they should have an even bigger lead than they already do over every other pen in the entirety of major league baseball. Maybe it's not that he doesn't know how to manage a pen, but that he doesn't manage them the way you want him to ?‍♂️

Not overly surprised that Larnach replaced a pitcher and not Miranda. And I don't think it's as simple as "Stashak went on the IL." Miranda wasn't kept for his bat, he was kept because they felt comfortable playing him at 1B. Larnach can't play 1B. Never understood the theory that they would send a cIF down when a cOF came back. I wonder if they've had Sanchez and/or Jeffers practicing at 1B at all. A right handed platoon for Arraez is the hole Miranda is currently filling. Maybe they get comfortable with Arraez as the everyday 1B even against lefties or they're comfortable with Kirilloff being the everyday 1B and Arraez going back to bouncing around, but Miranda looks to be in until they find another 1B option. Maybe it's Urshela that gets 1B reps when they feel comfortable with Lewis at 3B? Will definitely be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Quit saying the Rays were competing for a division title or the playoffs in 2018! They weren't! At the All Star break they were 49-47 while the Yankees were 62-33 and the Red Sox were 68-30. They weren't in the division race. They weren't. Quit saying they were. The Astros were 64-35 and the As were 55-42 and the Ms were 58-39. The Rays had a 5% likelihood of making the playoffs on the day they traded Chris Archer. They'd been under .500 the year before while finishing 13 games out of first. They finished 3rd in the division in 2018 a whopping 18 games out of first and 10 games back of the 2nd place Yankees. Quit suggesting they were competing for a division title when they traded Chris Archer. They weren't. Not to mention Chris Archer had an ERA of 4.31 when he was traded. He'd had an ERA over 4 the previous 2 seasons and lead the league in losses in 2016. Quit comparing Chris Archer to Carlos Correa or the Rays situation in 2018 to the Twins situation in 2022. They aren't comparable. At all. And we've already gone over Trevor Bauer having been the 3rd or 4th pitcher on that Indians team and having team control left on his deal which meant a bad team was willing to trade for him with the future in mind. Don't compare a #3 or 4 starter to Carlos Correa. Bauer had had 1 season with an ERA below 4 when he was traded. He wasn't a star. He wasn't even an above average pitcher. He was a mid-rotation arm who'd been drafted highly and had a recognizable name. They aren't the same thing. And the contract situation changes things even more. And the Bauer deal made the CURRENT Indians team better that year as it filled 2 outfield spots for their number 3 or 4 starter. These are not the same types of trades you're suggesting the Twins would make with Correa. They just aren't. I'm sorry I asked for All Stars who were traded as you've clearly decided Archer and Bauer are comparable to Correa. They aren't. Those situations aren't. The Twins trading prospects for relievers has nothing to do with trading Correa. Trading Correa would be a stand alone deal to a competing team looking to trade nothing but prospects because they're not going to make other positions worse on their major league team to bring in Correa. It's counterintuitive. No rebuilding team is going to trade for Correa since he'd just opt out of his deal or he already has the bad teams on his no trade list. It is possible they trade Correa, yes. To suggest it's likely is a vastly different thing and that's what you've been trying to do. The Twins are willing to re-sign Correa or have him opt in. You can't separate the Cruz situation like that. It's the same sort of situation. Star hitter on a division leading team that they risk losing. Cruz spent the entire offseason looking at other options. It was by no means a foregone conclusion that he'd be back, but the FO did what literally every other FO in the history of baseball has done and held onto their star while leading a division. If the Twins are leading the division at the deadline the chances of them trading Carlos Correa are about 2%. It's possible, yes, but your suggestion that it's the more likely outcome isn't based on anything. There are no similar examples. It's never been done. And I find it hard to believe any owner would ever OK such a deal. Congrats on your beyond bold take and your very impressive confidence in it. But, again, assuming the Twins are still leading the division or within a couple games of the lead at the deadline, you're the one who is going to be disappointed in the decisions the Twins make. They aren't trading a superstar off a division leading team. No team is. Ever.

Trade Correa for 1 to 2 top prospects?! Better be WAY more than that. They got 2 top prospects for Berrios. That's the entire point here, there's no trade they could find that improves the organization in the current and long-term if they're competing this year. You expect Lewis to replace a platinum glove winning SS and put up a 127 OPS+ (Correa's career number)? I spent all offseason suggesting Lewis would be ready early and spent the last few days complaining about them sending him back down, but not even I would think Lewis could replace Correa. You're losing at that position. I agree they need more relievers and I absolutely expect them to trade for some. That's not at all the same argument as trading Carlos Correa in the middle of a division race. Trading away an MVP candidate, platinum glove SS and improving 1B or cOF and some relievers is not an upgrade to the current team. It simply isn't. If they trade Carlos Correa in the middle of a division race they're literally saying they will never care about a current season. You cannot replace him on the major league roster with any sort of reasonable trade. You can't get value for him in any trade at the deadline because nobody is going to give up the prospect capital it would take to get him and only contenders will want him so they're not trading people off their major league roster because they're actually trying to win. That's why nobody has ever traded a player like Correa in the middle of a season they're contending for a division title. And nobody ever will.

When it comes to knowing how to play 3B? Did he forget? Are grounders different now? Is the throw further now? Again, quit acting like he forgot how to play baseball or field a grounder. 3B is not so complicated that he needs 12 games of experience now to be able to play it. That's my problem with all of this. People are acting like he didn't play any baseball for 2 years and simply forgot how to do it.

He was a free agent and was re-signed late in free agency on a 2nd contract. They risked losing him for nothing which is what the Twins would be doing with Correa. You're right, i did misread that. I apologize. But, why would the Twins trade for Josh Bell if they're so against losing players for nothing? He's a FA after this year so your suggestion is they're so unwilling to lose Correa for nothing that they'd sell him to Washington for half a season of a worse player at the lowest defensive position, some relievers (which you say are cheap to get), and maybe 1 or 2 top prospects while also kicking in multiple prospects to get it done? Why wouldn't they just trade a couple mid level prospects for relievers and keep Correa instead of Bell? The downgrade from Correa to Bell is worth far more than a top prospect and they're still losing Bell at the end of the year.

You have not shown that. You've shown teams trade league average pitchers (106 ERA+) when they aren't playoff teams (you keep suggesting TB were a playoff team when they traded Archer when they were 3rd in their division the year before and that year, a combined 31 games out of first!) or the league average pitcher was the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on their team. That is not even remotely close to trading Carlos Correa. You proved it by showing he has 5 less WAR than both of those 2 pitchers COMBINED in 4 FEWER seasons played. It is possible they trade him. It is very, very, very, very unlikely they trade him if they're still leading the division, or even close to it, in July. A 6 or 7 for 1 trade with multiple big leaguers and possibly multiple top prospects as well for half a season of Correa to a team that isn't contending and is more likely to be dumping salary than taking on a huge deal?! Man you have a fun imagination. Oh, and Nelson Cruz on his first deal is a great example of them not trading a star when they were competing for the division and risked losing him for nothing. They traded him for their current #1 pitcher when they were in a lost season so he was clearly worth a pretty good haul the previous chance they had to trade him but didn't because the current season matters to them!

I already explained why the Bauer trade isn't even remotely similar. They traded a mid-rotation arm that was a clubhouse problem for 2 major leaguers. Those teams do run their teams similar to the Twins, but those players aren't similar to Correa. Archer was broken down and not himself anymore. And they lost their division by 18 games that year and had lost it by 13 the season before. They weren't a competing team in the East. Of course it's a possibility, but that's not what you're claiming. You're suggesting it's more likely that he's traded than that he's not because it isn't likely he picks up his options and you falsely claimed the Twins never let good players leave for nothing. I've disproven every claim you've made. You're more than welcome to predict he's traded this year. You're more than welcome to believe it. But none of the points you've made are based on actual events that have taken place. Have a good night.

Is the WAR argument supposed to suggest that those 2 are on the same talent level as Correa? Because he's nearly doubled their WAR despite being in the league 2 fewer seasons. I don't think that argument is saying what you think it's saying.

Well he has a limited no trade clause so that's limiting their options right there. And the question isn't even just who the Twins would be willing to trade him to, but who would want him. Only contenders would want him since he's on a 1 year deal basically (that's your whole premise of why he'll be traded so you can't disagree there). Bieber could be considered Lewis-esque, sure. But Clevinger was the ace of that staff already and Carrasco had finished 4th in the Cy Young the year before. So, no, that situation isn't even remotely close to the same thing. The Indians traded their #3 or 4 starter for 2 major league outfielders because that was the hole they needed filled that season. According to you the Twins would be trading Correa for AAA pitchers to help in future years. Again, not the same thing.

Again, Chris Archer had a 106 ERA+ for his career at the time of that trade. He wasn't a star. And the Rays lost their division by 18 games that year after having been below .500 the season before. Neither of the 2 pitchers you've mentioned are anywhere near the player Correa is.

To that point in his career Trevor Bauer had an ERA over 4 and an ERA+ of 109. He was no star (yes he'd made the All Star team the season before, but was nowhere near as good the year he got traded). But even if I let you consider him a star he was still in arbitration, not on a $35M deal which is why he was traded to a team that won 75 games that year. They wanted him for the next season. Correa isn't comparable to that, unless you think a bad team is going to try to trade for him for half a season in which they're not contending for the playoffs. And the Indians got 2 major leaguers back in that deal because they were trying to win the World Series and had Shane Bieber, Mike Clevenger, and Carlos Carrasco in their rotation while the Reds were bad and planning for 2020. You're arguing that the Twins are going to trade Correa to a contender for prospects in "AAA or maybe AA." Not at all the same thing.

I don't expect him to continue to keep hitting like he did. I expect him to have struggles when the pitchers adjust. Then he needs to figure out how to adjust back. That's the life of a major league hitter. He can't do that in AAA. He needs to learn to adjust to major league pitchers and how they get him out. Sending him down because he's going to have struggles in the future isn't to his benefit it's to his detriment. So you expect him back up in the next 4 weeks or so? If he played half his games at 3B during that time it'd be "like 12 games" at 3B (3 games a week for 4 weeks). So 12 games matters now, but 12 previous games don't? Why are we acting like the kid forgot how to play baseball and hasn't swung a bat or fielded a grounder in 2 years. He played baseball that first season. It's where he adjusted his swing and made strides in his fielding. His rehab from surgery included playing baseball. He's been playing for months now and succeeding. People may have expected him to start slow, but he didn't. He's playing well. Bringing up 2 missed years as a reason why he can't play now even though he's currently playing well blows my mind.

I hope he can throw it all the way across the diamond.