chpettit19

According to Aaron Gleeman on Twitter the Royce Lewis position dance has begun in AAA. Lewis is leading off for the Saints and playing 3B tonight. Let's see where things go from here I guess.

As I pointed out he was having the worst year of his career and a team with championship aspirations still felt he was worth bringing in. Your argument is that when he had 116 OPS+ with the Twins he wasn't worth more than 86 OPS+ with the Indians. I'm not suggesting he'd have brought back the top prospect in the game, I'm suggesting they could've traded him in season and gotten pretty solid prospects back if their concern is always to not lose above average ML players for nothing. Comparing the offseason trades to in season trades is ignoring all context. Again, name me 1 time a team traded an All Star in the middle of a season that they were leading a division or in the heat of a playoff run? You're suggesting they're so focused on the future that they'll do something nobody has ever done.

The team has already said he's going to be moving around the field at AAA. Gardenhire confirmed it last night. He's down there to get used to other positions to be ready when he's needed in the bigs again. I haven't seen anyone suggest he's a guaranteed a top half of the order hitter. The claims are he is right now. He is/was currently performing better than over half the team at the major league level. Sending him down because he may (will) struggle later isn't a good reason. His future development depends on being able to adjust to ML pitching, not AAA. He needs to go through those struggles eventually. The Twins have sent him down to work on other positions and get ABs against inferior pitchers when he could be working on those other positions and getting ABs against the pitching he'll ultimately have to adjust to.

For the record Royce played 3B until he was a senior in high school and 109 professional innings at 3B. "Basically never played" is a misrepresentation of Royce Lewis' experience.

I think this next month+ is setup perfect for the team and FO. Build the lead by racking up wins over the next 4 series and build the confidence. Get into the meat of the schedule and see how you matchup against some of the big boys. Hopefully everyone is healthy by then and you can get a good read on where everyone is at. Then you get into July, aka trade season, and hopefully still have a lead in the division while having a clearer picture of where the team stands and you make moves to fill the holes. Certainly not predicting any massive moves that put the future in real jeopardy, but I've seen recent reports that they're still in on Montas and I'd think the Reds pitchers will be available. I don't think the team as it's currently constructed is a great playoff threat, but I think they're close enough to make a trade or 2 once they see how June goes and put themselves in a place to have a team that could make a little noise. Or at least win a game.

I mean you're actively ignoring actual events that took place. The Twins actively kept Rosario knowing they wouldn't pay him in the offseason because they were in the playoff race. A team the very next year literally traded for him when he was having a worse season. Of course he's not Correa. Very few players are. Can you name a time when another team has traded an All Star during a pennant chase they were in? Like you're claiming they're going to do something that basically has never happened before. It's actually impressive how sure you are in your stance that the Twins are about to do what no team has ever done before. I'll give you props for that. Confidence is important in life.

Nobody would've wanted Trevor May? That's your stance? Nobody ever wants a back end of the bullpen arm at the deadline? That's a ridiculous claim. I don't have hard numbers in front of me, but I'd be willing to bet bullpen arms are the first or second most acquired players at the trade deadline. Nobody would've wanted Eddie Rosario who had a 116 OPS+ his last year with the Twins? Nobody would trade for him at the deadline? Not someone like the Braves who literally traded for him last year at the deadline when he was having a career worst season and went on to win the World Series with him winning the NLCS MVP. They let Rosario walk for nothing and you trying to pretend that's a different situation is you trying to play mental gymnastics to get around being wrong. You asked for 1 decent player the Twins let walk away for nothing. I named 15 (we'll call it 14 since I forgot Odo was hurt) decent players. If you're asking about superstars it's a different question. The Twins haven't had anyone close to Correa's talent level outside of Buxton. The argument you should be trying to make is that they tried to trade Buxton last year. But I'd counter with the same thing I did about Berrios and point out it was a lost season, not a season in which they're trying to win the division. Jaime Garcia is probably the best example of this FO ever trading away a "decent" MLB player during a competitive season. Name 1 other "decent" player they've traded away in the middle of a pennant chase in the last 5 years. Those are 2 games the Twins MAY have won if Rogers were here. Who says he wouldn't blow a save? Who says he wouldn't have thrown the game before and been unavailable? Who says he wouldn't have been used earlier in the game? It is a dream scenario because there's literally no way to know. So I'll take the Twins pen being 2nd in major league baseball in getting outs with the game on the line and be ok with that since that's the actual reality. Again, you're using your expectations and guesses while I'm giving you actual data on things that actually happened. That doesn't even bring up who would've started the games Paddack started and who knows what those results would've been. Maybe they'd have been terrible. The Twins won 3 of his 5 starts. Maybe it'd have been 0 with someone else starting. You can't know this. You can guess. That's it. Suggesting the Twins would be 2 wins better with Rogers on the roster instead of Paddack and Pagan isn't even an educated guess. It's taking 2 blown saves and suggesting the only possible outcome is that Rogers saves those 2 games despite the fact that the Twins hadn't used him as anything even resembling a strict closer since 2019. Oh, and who's pitching the innings Pagan has pitched? Would it just automatically be the lefty Rogers or would it have been someone like Stashak or Duffey?

Agree to disagree on Rogers. Again, the Twins have the 2nd most WPA among all major league bullpens. The bullpen has been more than fine without him. You're confusing your predictions with reality. The reality is that the Twins haven't needed Rogers. The Yankees 100% passed on trading shortstops this offseason. It's a really easy google search to find numerous articles on them refusing to trade either Volpe or Peraza and those 2 are the reason they didn't pay up for the shortstop. Almost everyone predicted a ton of trades for this team this offseason. Like you can go back and look at dozens of threads on this very site where there's dozens of people talking about all the trades that were expected to happen. I'll give you nobody was really expecting the Correa move. But the trades were predicted by just about everyone. Decent players walk for nothing? Trevor May. Eddie Rosario. Shoot, Ehire Adrianza was decent. Jason Castro. Kyle Gibson. Robbie Grossman. Jake Odorizzi. CJ Cron. Michael Pineda. Sergio Romo. Jonathan Schoop. Rich Hill. Matt Wisler. Tyler Clippard. Andrelton Simmons. Those are the ones I can think of off the top of my head, but there may be more. They're all different levels of decent, but all of which walked out the door for nothing and many of them could've gotten something back in return. But the Twins were in division title races during the last year of many of their contracts so they didn't trade them. Weird.

They traded Rogers because a starter is better than a reliever. Rogers still hasn't thrown as many innings this year as Paddack has and Paddack hasn't thrown a pitch in almost 2 weeks. They got a reliever back in that deal to replace Rogers for this year. If you had such a great handle on this front office you'd know they don't value individual relievers and find them to be quite replaceable. The Twins pen being second in baseball in WPA would seem to suggest they're right about that. The Yankees already turned down trading either of their top SSs or Dominguez for Montas or Olson so find it hard to believe they'd turn around and trade them for half a season of Correa. Wells is an awful defensive catcher so I'd be surprised if that's someone the Twins would find to be an acceptable centerpiece for a Correa trade. Think you'd find it hard to find any evaluator who believes Sweeney is a shortstop. He's a worse defender than Martin and Martin is no SS. So you don't have any position players in their top 10 that the Twins would want as a centerpiece. None of their top pitching prospects (including Gil who I'd be shocked if this FO traded for after trading him away originally) are any better than what they already have in their system and would cause a major 40-man clog which means they'd be trading Correa away and also have to risk losing guys as they take them off the 40-man. What trades did you predict? Rogers? They tried to trade him last year so that's not any great guess. Donaldson? They wanted to get out from the money so also an easily predictable result. Garver? They had 3 ML catchers and holes at short and SP so it wasn't any great shock that they'd trade the oldest of the catchers. Or are you talking about Berrios and Cruz who everyone knew they'd trade during a lost season? Do you have an example of a trade this FO made where they traded a star during a playoff season? That's the proof I'd believe that they're likely to trade Correa in the middle of a pennant chase.

I'm with ya on the wrist concerns and I'd generally agree with you, but it all feels like such crisscrossing lines of reasoning to me that I don't feel at all comfortable betting that Lewis is back in 10 or so days. Kirilloff is starting to show some pop again, but I have no idea what they'll need to see to feel comfortable with him back in Minneapolis. We still don't know where they're going to move Lewis around to so no idea what that situation really is. Miranda going down for Larnach after they kept him presumably because of his ability to play 1B just makes the Lewis thing weirder to me. On Wednesday it mattered he was the only experienced 1B on the roster, but by the weekend it doesn't matter? I generally like and trust this FO, but this week has been very confusing and frustrating to me.

They traded Berrios and Cruz during a completely lost season, not a division title race. They're not even remotely comparative situations. At some point you can't keep playing for the future. A team trading for Correa with his current deal is looking to win this season. So that's cutting down who's going to even be willing to negotiate with you. They aren't giving you any pitching that could help this season because, again, they're trying to win themselves and trading away pitching is never the move a contender makes at the deadline. So you're getting prospects at maybe AA, but more likely high A or below. I don't know what type of "young top end SP" you're suggesting they get, but it wouldn't be anyone who can help anytime soon since no contender is trading that away.

Don't get the push for trading either of them. Sanchez is the only other reasonable option at C for the Twins after Jeffers. He's a very important piece to this season. Urshela can play all over the IF if needed. I don't think Urshela should be locked in as the starting 3B (bring Lewis back!), or Sanchez as the DH, but they're certainly useful pieces to this team. And they wouldn't bring anything special in trade anyways. If they're not good enough to play for the Twins why would another team want to trade useful pieces for them? Don't let them block anyone, but certainly don't just dump useful MLB players for nothing.

Now I'm hungry.

It all makes even less sense to me if they go back to "previous experience not needed" with positioning consideration this weekend when Larnach comes back. Maybe they start hitting Arraez against lefties just to keep his not-so-great glove at 1B? Otherwise they're putting someone else there if they send Miranda down and again showing they don't really care about people learning new positions at the big league level. I'd love to be in the room as these discussions are taking place to see the thought process.

I'm generally not one for "this sends a bad message to future free agents" kind of talk, but if they sign him and then trade him despite being in first place in the division it may actually send a terrible message to future free agents and everyone in the clubhouse. It's not the fan ire they should worry about there, but the player ire. He has a full no trade clause that kicks in (if I'm remembering correctly) if he picks up his option so the only time they could trade him without his approval is by the deadline and he even has a limited no trade now (again, if I'm remembering correctly). The players all know it's a business, but trading Correa in the middle of a division race would be an awful message to send to the team and I'd think you could kiss any hope of "hometown" discounts for anyone currently on the roster goodbye. That's an awful way to run an organization.

We've established our differing opinions on the Lewis situation, but I'm curious as why you think Lewis would be the call instead of Kirilloff at the end of the month. Assuming Miranda was kept because of his ability to play 1B while the Twins don't feel comfortable with anyone else on the current roster doing it I'd think Kirilloff has the leg up. I mean if 1B is the reason Miranda is up now I don't know why it's so obvious he goes down when another OFer comes back. I agree that's the obvious call, but to me that'd suggest his ability to play 1B isn't all that important to them since there's still no 1B on the roster when Larnach comes back.

I was going to do some work, but now I have to go check out Law's mock, thanks a lot. Johnson, Collier, and Holliday are the 3 I'm hoping for most right now. But would be happy with one of the Cs as well.

And I'm saying it's a failure that they didn't have a plan in place for their top prospect being good. You're in the season. Games are happening. Wins and losses matter. Having to send down a guy who's performing better than all but 3 of your current major leaguers because you need to "recalculate" is a failure. Needing to "figure out a new plan" because your superstar shortstop and your top prospect shortstop are both good at baseball is a failure. I don't get how that's not considered anything but a misfire.

That's a great mischaracterization of my stance. And you literally just suggested they were confused on what to do and needed to pull off the highway to recalculate the GPS. My stance is that it's an unforced demotion of one of the best players they currently have on the roster. I've provided numerous guesses on how they could've come to the decision. I've rebutted reasons given by both posters and team officials/players. Doesn't mean I'm right. But characterizing my stance as "it's all about some misfired plan or expectation and now they are confused" is ignoring a lot and actually a complaint about an argument you literally made 45 minutes ago. But don't characterize my stance that way as it's drastically reducing the ideas I've presented.

You disprove your own point in your first paragraph. You start by saying he's going to have struggles and shouldn't be christened to the majors from here on out. I agree with both of those things. But then you point out the obvious counter in that he's going to need to go through those struggles eventually. Sending him down while he's doing well because at some point it's almost guaranteed that he has struggles is just delaying those struggles. Sending him down doesn't change that, it just makes it more likely that he goes through those challenges at a time when the team isn't playing the As, Royals, and Tigers and they're actually counting on him to have made adjustments. Lewis doesn't need to be in AAA to learn 3B. He's played it plenty throughout his life. Including 109 professional innings. There's no reason to send him to AAA to learn 3B. LF you could sell me on. I guess we'll see where they play him in AAA. But the rest of that second paragraph is just an emphasis on 1 of my 3 complaints: being surprised he was good. If it's "whoa" in anyway and they need to send him down to recalculate it means they weren't prepared for him to be ready and better than Urshela and Miranda (a guy with 1 good MLB season, and a guy with 1 good MiLB season). That's a failure. If they signed Correa knowing they had Lewis and are now surprised and confused on what to do because Correa may stay and their best prospect, who plays the same position, is good it's a failure, not an acceptable excuse. How do you not expect, and thus have a plan for, your top prospect to be good? I agree with the premise of your 3rd paragraph. It's not the end of the world. But that doesn't mean it makes sense or was necessary or that the FO doesn't deserve all the heat they're getting (including from their own players if you believe the Dan Hayes article on The Athletic). But I am thinking about June, July, August, September, and October or November when I make my complaints. He's going to struggle at some point in the majors (as we both agree on). I'd prefer that happens in May or June rather than September or October. He's going to have to make adjustments. Let's let him make them early instead of late when he's being counted on during a pennant race late in the year. And for the record this is my objective stance. I have run all the options through my head. I've read pretty much every post on here about the possibilities and read all the Twins quotes from the FO to Rocco to the players. I have yet to see one that isn't easily refuted (outside of maybe them wanting him to get some time in LF). Playing 3B isn't acceptable as he can already do it. Playing SS isn't either as he's already shown he can play it after 2 years off. "The future" isn't as he needs to go through the adjustment period so all you're doing is delaying it. Urshela standing in his way isn't as he's a potential star and Urshela is a utility IFer. It's not the end of the world, but that doesn't make it a good decision through a "neutral stance" thought process.

I expected it, and admit it's quite possible that's why I'm so cranky about the decision to send him back down. I spent all offseason saying I expected him to do what Baddoo did last year and come out of the gates on fire because he's just that naturally gifted. He's an incredibly hard worker and knew what his was holding him back. Having all of 2020 to spend on reworking his swing without having to worry about what numbers he was putting up or getting promoted or whatever else was a blessing to him. I think game reps defensively are highly overrated. It's important to build your instincts and all that, but in terms of straight up being able to make the plays that's all worked on in practice. So, again, 2020 spent doing nothing but working on his glove everyday without worrying about errors and fielding percentage was a blessing to him. Last year was a real bummer for him. But he was training and playing games during the offseason unlike many of the major leaguers were so he was more ready than them because of his rehab process. I fully expected this out of him and I think it's a failing that the FO seemed to be so surprised (or are just being overly cautious/refusing to waiver from "the plan") by his success. They know what he was looking like in 2020 and what he was looking like during his rehab process and should've been ready for this. This feels like 1 of 3 things happened/are happening: 1. They weren't prepared for him to be this good this early. In which case they did a terrible job self-scouting their own player. 2. They're being overly cautious/looking too much to the future at the cost of the present by putting so much emphasis on him getting AAA reps at SS. In my opinion this is also inexcusable as there are plenty of examples of guys moving positions on the fly in the bigs and doing well. Trea Turner being the perfect example. Kris Bryant being another one (just wasn't a SS). It was out of necessity due to injuries for Arraez and Gordon to do it, but they were both successful with it. Teams do it all the time. 3. They're refusing to alter the almighty "plan." This is kind of a combo of 1 and 2. Also find it to be an awful excuse and a major flaw for the FO if it's what's happening. I think they've shown a tendency to hold onto plans too long/be overly cautious with things, and I think it's their biggest flaw. From the outside it looks like they get blinders on and are just going to keep charging in the direction they picked until they get knocked off course and have no choice but to adjust. I think they've been outstanding at setting up the development systems and the general baseball ops practices for a winning organization. I think they need a more aggressive voice in the room to counterbalance what appears to be a large number of "play it safe" voices. Lewis going down isn't the end of the world, and neither is resting Buxton or Correa, but there needs to be some aggressiveness at some point. At least that's how I see if from the outside.

What is debatable about it not being an either or situation? It is entirely possible to look to the future and the present. It's literally the FO's job. The Nats sat Strasburg his rookie year with a look towards the future and not wanting to hurt his arm. He's been hurt for nearly his entire career. They also played Turner in CF (a position he'd never played before that year) when he first came up to get his bat in the lineup while he fine tuned his glove at SS. He's now the SS for the best team in baseball after a stint at 2B as well. The idea that the only way to prepare for the future is to send Lewis down is false. Sending him down also doesn't ensure his future. I agree with the general idea that fans don't have nearly as much knowledge or info as the FOs we complain about, but don't mistake that for meaning they're always right or that there aren't fans out there with a whole lot of info.

Let's break this argument down (and I'm not trying to be rude, just trying to find a way to respond coherently) 1. He missed 2 years. 2. He's the shortstop of the future so needs to be ready. 3. Can't be ready to take over for Correa unless he's playing SS "nearly EVERY day." I agree with 2. But doesn't his current performance render points 1 and 3 moot? What about his performance suggests he isn't ready to be the shortstop of the present? If Correa wasn't here he'd be the starting SS now and he was doing awfully well at that job. How does keeping him in the majors so he can go through the necessary adjustments over the course of the year as ML pitchers adjust to him hurt his future? I'd argue sending him down delays his ability to be ready to take over for Correa. He can field the position. He's shown it. He'll continue to work on it no matter where he is even if he isn't starting at SS everyday. The struggle rookies face is that eventually the league adjusts to you and pitch you different. That's what he needs to work on to be prepared to take over for Correa. All sending him down does is delay that adjustment opportunity.

The thing with the Lewis situation though is that it's not a focus on the present OR future situation. You can be focusing on both the present AND the future. I don't believe keeping him in the majors playing 3B while training everyday with the best fielding SS in baseball is hindering his future at all. He's played 109 professional innings at 3B already. That's not a ton, but let's not act like he's never played there. He played there most of his HS career as well. So he could help the present team by playing 3B and providing what is currently one of the best bats they have going, and he can learn the habits of Correa and train with him everyday. It's not a this or that situation. He can help the present and still be set to take over SS in the future.

Except they've openly stated that the plan isn't to have him play SS everyday, it's to move him around the field so he's comfortable playing other positions when he's needed again. He played a more than serviceable SS in his short stint and was doing quite well at it in St Paul. Plus they watched him take an insane amount of grounders during the 2020 season and have been watching him in Florida for months as he's rehabbed. If they aren't sure if he can play SS or not by now they have their answer and it's that he can't play SS.