chpettit19

Disagree. I mean the positioning literally comes from the dugout/index card. You or I can go out there and stand in the right position because they literally tell him where to stand. What decision making are you talking about? Which base to throw to? Where to go on cutoffs? If he doesn't know those things now he's probably not going to figure it out. What teamwork? Turning double plays? They get that rhythm in practice, not the 1 double play they turn a game. I don't disagree that there's absolutely a benefit to playing games. Game speed can never be replicated in practice. But the things you seem to be talking about can 100% be worked on in practice. My point isn't that he never needs to play SS to improve, it's that the difference between playing there 4 or 5 times a week in AAA vs playing there 2 times a week in the majors is miniscule. And he's not working hand in hand with a former top prospect who was a bad fielder and turned himself into a platinum glove winner if he's in AAA which I think pretty well balances out the extra couple games he'd play there in AAA. Not to mention that my guess is that if he goes back to AAA he's not just playing SS. Their plan would absolutely not be to keep him in AAA playing nothing but SS until Correa is hurt again or next season. He'd go down and play some OF, 3B, and 2B so he could come back up and play all over the field for the stretch run and playoffs with the Twins. So now he's playing the same number of games at SS in AAA as he would in the majors and the strategy of improving his defense at SS is completely out the window. Sending him back to AAA wouldn't be because they think that's the best place for him to improve his SS defense.

That's fair. 1 win after 0-18 would be nice.

What does "playing to win the regular season" even mean? Is the argument that the game is drastically different in the playoffs? I'm sure those players would say that. 29 teams every single season to a man would tell you they came up short. You do know only 1 team wins the World Series every year, right? Again, I don't think Rocco having a 1-5 or 2-5 postseason record would change many opinions. Again, if you can tell people the secret code to winning in the postseason you can have any job with any team in any sport. I have some connections in the Twins FO and I'd be happy to pass the code along and just get you a nice consulting fee of a few million if that's all you're looking for and not a fulltime job. Let me know what strategies you think they're missing. Here's a free fact on strategies: HRs are one of the "stickiest" stats from regular season to postseason. So HR rate for hitters changes very little between the regular season and postseason. The Twins built a HR bashing machine in 2019 then stopped hitting HRs in the playoffs. What should Rocco have done differently to fix that? Should the FO not build teams that hit HRs in the regular season because you don't like it even though a hundred years worth of stats say you're wrong?

And I'm saying that's not what they're facing. At least not every time out. If the Braves and Astros had guys throwing like Verlander was the other night they'd have averaged more than 5 innings a start. The Astros had 1 pitcher go 8 innings in a start (I think it was Valdez, but could be wrong) because he was throwing so well. But since Morton, Fried, Anderson, et al for Atlanta, and Grienke, Valdez, Garcia, et al for the Astros weren't throwing like Verlander a few days ago they didn't get so many innings. This idea that every playoff team is running out a staff of aces is wrong. They're not. Many of them have at least 1 ace, yes. What some of them have are guys with names you might recognize. But if the Twins are a top 5 pitching team (which they were in 2019 and 2020) and a top 5 offensive team (which they were) in the regular season it's because they can get good hitters out and hit good pitching. 5 games is a super small sample size. It just gets blown up because it's the playoffs and the Twins are historically bad in them the last 20 or so years.

Here's my thing with needing to play SS everyday, does it really matter that much as far as improving his defensive ability? I'm talking game reps since I assume that's what people mean by "playing SS everyday." Correa won the platinum glove last year while playing 1304.2 innings at SS. He had 578 balls hit to him. So in a longer season with more innings (majors vs minors I mean) he averaged about 4 balls per game. So the argument is that Royce needs his 4 balls a game in AAA to further develop? I find it hard to believe 4 reps a game is what turns him into a better fielder. Isn't it the thousands of reps he takes outside of game play that improve his abilities? And if that's the case can't he do that in Minneapolis while providing one of their 9 best bats and still getting 8-12 balls at SS a week instead of the 20-24 he'd see a week in St Paul?

No, it isn't. The 2 teams in the world series last year each averaged less than 5 innings a start for the postseason. The Astros averaged less than 4 innings a start. And as I pointed out in my other comment, the Brewers ran 3 aces out there last year and went 1-3.

That's why I said the continuation of the playoff losing streak is the big part of the negative narrative. I'm not one to say it's the manager's fault that Jorge Polanco throws a routine grounder darn near into right field despite being 10 feet away from 2nd. Hard to blame Rocco for Pineda being suspended in 2019 or Buxton being hit in the head by a pitch a week or whatever before the playoffs start which left the team shorthanded. He's 0-5 in the playoffs. Not great at all, certainly. But if you're going to ignore some pretty incredible stats over 420 regular season games in favor of 5 playoff games there's no argument anyone can make against it. If you can solve how to win consistently in the playoffs and which strategies will translate into consistent postseason wins you can pick any job you want with any team in any sport. The Dodgers sure would like some help since they've got the best regular season stats in baseball for darn near a decade and have 1 championship to show for it. The Brewers ran 3 aces and the best reliever in baseball out there last year and won 1 game. I know 1 is more than 0, but I find it hard to believe people would be happy with Rocco being 1-5 instead of 0-5.

So if Royce Lewis isn't close to a gold glover he needs to be in AAA? That has to be top 5 in boldest statements I've ever seen on TD. So your stance is that the current Twins team would be better off having Royce Lewis in AAA until he's a gold glove caliber SS instead of having him learn from a platinum glove winning SS in the majors while providing an improved bat for the offense? Did you know Carlos Correa was considered well below average defensively when he first debuted? Last year he was voted the best defender at any position in the American League. Would it have been better for Houston to keep him in AAA for 3 or 4 extra years until he was a gold glove caliber SS? They're not exactly known as the best defensive team in the history of baseball. I think Royce following Correa's career trajectory would be an awfully nice outcome.

Why do you say his defense needs to "improve vastly?" Certainly has room for improvement, but vast is a big word to use there. To follow that up, how much improvement do you need to see out of him before you'd be willing to have him on the major league roster? Does he have to be a gold glover? League average (which I'd argue he is right now)? Completely finished defensive product with no room for improvement? You bring up players doing well hitting then falling on their faces, does that mean you'd send him down to AAA to avoid him falling on his face? He's not currently falling on his face in the batter's box. How does he establish that he's ready and won't fall on his face if you don't keep him in the majors and give him ABs?

Here's the pitching info since Rocco took over: From 2019 to today MIN has the 10th most pitching fWAR in baseball. So even with the disaster of 2021 they're top 10 in all of baseball. If we just use 2019 and 2020, you know, when HRs saved Rocco, they were 2nd in all of baseball. They're 8th in baseball in WPA since 2019. Since 2019 they're 3rd in WPA for relievers. That sounds like a pitching strategy that is working awfully well. Here's the OBP vs SLG numbers since Rocco took over: OBP .324 good for 8th in all of baseball. SLG .450 good for 3rd in all of baseball. wRC+ 108 good for 4th in all of baseball. Runs scored 2077 good for 6th in all of baseball. There's a little room for improvement in the OBP, but they're not exactly struggling to get on base. What's really clouding things is the continuation of the playoff game losing streak. If people want to blame Rocco for those loses that's one thing, but the stats don't match up with the rest of the narrative about him or this team since he took over. They're getting on base plenty and scoring plenty of runs during the regular season. They're pitching plenty well and getting incredible performances out of their pen during the regular season.

Option 4: combine options 2 and 3. He's currently one of the 9 best hitters on this team and if they're serious about contending this year you keep him up because he gives you a better chance to win games. Correa was already getting regularly scheduled off days before the hand injury so there's no reason to think that will change. Lewis is their best SS after Correa so it makes sense to give him a couple starts a week there when you DH or sit Correa. Put him at 3B for 2 other starts a week and LF/CF (I assume he could handle LF without any issue and we've seen him play CF very well in the AFL) for another 2 starts a week. He's getting everyday ABs and gets to work with Correa on the side for his SS defense.

Joe Ryan is at 37.2 innings in 7 starts this year. As the only Twins arm to make all his starts he's the best comparison we have right now. League leaders are at about 50 innings in 8 starts. Verlander leads guys with 7 starts at 45.2 innings. So Ryan is about an inning per start behind the top guy. But he has 4 starts of either 6 or 7 innings which certainly suggests they're willing to let him go when he's on.

You're kidding right? Did you watch the playoffs last year? I'll just do the Braves and Stros here since they were the WS teams, but here's their starters innings in each of their playoff games last year. Braves: 6, 6, 5, 3.1, 6, 3, 5, 1 (followed by 3.1), 4.2, 4, 2.1, 5, 5, .1 (followed by 4.2), 2, 6. Clinching game 6 and starter had a shutout through 6 and they pulled him. Average start less than 5 innings (and that's even counting the 3.1 and 4.2 as the true start. Stros: 6.2, 4.1, 2.2, 4, 2.2, 1 (Odo came in and then went 4), 1.2, (no pitcher went even 2 innings for them in this game), 1.1, 8, 5.2, 2, 5, 3.2, 4, 2.2, 2.2. They had 2 games with a pitcher going at least 6, and 2 more that they made it through at least 5. 4 out of 16 games with a guy who made it through even 5 innings. That's 25%. Average start less than 4 innings. So, as others have pointed out, these "valid criticisms" are criticisms about major league baseball, not Rocco or the Twins. This is how the game is played in the regular AND post seasons.

In this thread? Don't know that I've seen a specific call for that here. In general? Happens pretty near everyday in game threads on TD and all over Twitter, etc. literally everyday.

Rocco is always a fun topic. My main view on him is that those calling for his head wouldn't be happy with his replacement anyways. Not because those fans would just never be happy with a manager, but because he'd be replaced by someone who would make basically the same decisions. There may be a small difference here or there, but the complaints about short starts and ever changing lineups wouldn't go away with a new manager as those are organizational strategies. Unless Pohlad fires the entire organization and decides to bring back TK and TR this is the new normal for the Twins. So I'd suggest fans who don't like it at least try to educate themselves on it and start to accept it or they're just going to keep being angry. It's not changing anytime soon. (For the record I hate the ever changing lineups and don't get the strategy behind hitting Sanchez in the 3 hole these days) I haven't seen it posted here yet, but I'm sure we'll see a "if he doesn't have a team hitting 307 HRs to cover up for his mistakes he's terrible!" post eventually. There's always at least one in these threads. They bring me endless joy because it gives me a chance to point out that from 2019 to today MIN has the 10th most pitching fWAR in baseball. So even with the disaster of 2021 they're top 10 in all of baseball. If we just use 2019 and 2020, you know, when HRs saved Rocco, they were 2nd in all of baseball. They're 8th in baseball in WPA since 2019. Since 2019 they're 3rd in WPA for relievers. Seems weird for a team with a manager who has no idea how to manage a pen. They're 15th in starters innings since 2019. Which just goes to show they're not doing anything crazy with their starters. Gleeman mentioned in an article in the last couple days that the average start this year is 4.9 innings and 80 pitches. So I'm pretty sure Rocco, and the FO, aren't just completely off the rails when it comes to pitcher usage. As I said in the first paragraph, I don't really get the lineup construction sometimes and that they always change things. I'd guess the strategy is to set the lineup up for the best chance to blast the starter and get him out and take their chances after that, but it doesn't seem to be working right now and tends to leave them in tougher spots late in games when you have Gary Sanchez hitting with the game on the line and 2 outs while leaving Polanco standing in the on deck circle. But they have so much more information than we do so I assume it's a quite well educated decision. Overall I don't think managers have as much to do with Ws and Ls as fans tend to make it sound by getting so upset about some things. I don't understand all of the decisions made, but I do know firing Rocco means they just get Rocco 2.0 in his spot. I've heard almost universal praise for Rocco and the org from players who have left (Shoemaker being the clear exception). The current players are fans of his usage and giving Buxton rest. I mean Correa had some real strong words about it. I'm not huge on Rocco or the current way the game is played, but I think he's a solid manager who isn't costing the team games by any means.

I don't expect Kepler here beyond next year. In our fantasy world with Correa here on an extension I was looking beyond just this year and next. For this year and much of next I'd have Lewis, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino as my top 4 OF. Although, Lewis would likely be a bit of a utility guy and pop into the infield a bit as well. Agreed on Kirilloff as a big if. To me that's simply a health thing. But if he's healthy and can put this wrist thing behind him he's my everyday 1B. But the reality is the Twins are unlikely to make any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Miranda, or Martin everyday anythings. Other than Lewis being the everyday SS if/when Correa leaves. Kirilloff will bounce between 1B and COF. Miranda between 1B, 2B, and 3B (mostly 1 and 3). Martin all over. Not how I'd do things as I prefer giving guys 1 spot and letting them perfect it as much as possible with a couple of Gordon types bouncing around, but the Twins clearly disagree with me there.

It's a very interesting question. If I can only have 1 unit be above average I'd go OF. I agree defense is just as important as offense. To me, though, taking away extra base hits is the most important thing and I just think you can do that more with great speed in the OF. What makes Buxton so incredibly valuable defensively is when he's covering an extra 10 feet in the gap and taking away a double. And, to me, if you're so good in the OF that you're taking away extra base hits on liners you're likely taking away some singles as well. Like with Buxton coming in and taking away some of those short popups. In the IF I certainly appreciate the diving plays, but most of those are taking away singles unless the ball is going down the line. Ideally you have stud defenders everywhere, but if I could only pick the IF or OF I'll take the OF. As for the difficulty in developing infielders vs outfielders I think it's a little different. I think infield takes more development while outfield takes more just natural gifts. You can improve your jumps off the bat, but you can't train yourself to have Buxton or Lewis speed. I'd say it's harder to teach a kid to have Ozzie Smith hands, but you see a lot of guys who were very poor infielders improve their glove work there. The Twins have had a few 3B in their not to distant past that went from butchers to above average. But you couldn't teach those same guys to run 29+ ft/sec. Now if the league continues to deaden the ball and players get away from the slugging over average approach maybe I feel differently. But in a time when the goal for most hitters is extra bases that's what I want to take away. Celestino/Martin in LF, Buxton in CF, and Lewis in RF (with Kepler as part of the mix for next year) for the next 5 or 6 years sounds like it's taking away a whole lot of doubles and is catching just about every fly ball hit out there. So in summary I'll take the chance of Miranda being able to improve his defense at 3B to be average to above average over the chances anybody currently in the system and close to MLB ready being able to cover as much ground in the OF as Lewis.

Oh yeah, I'm saying for next year if that big if happens I'd put Lewis in the OF. Miranda at 3B and Kirilloff at 1B (like you said, big ifs all over as far as these guys actually sticking in the majors) with Lewis in the OF is how I'd do things. Assuming all the ifs turn out in the Twins favor (will never happen) an OF of Martin-Buxton-Lewis and infield of Miranda-Correa-Polanco-Kirilloff with Larnach at DH most of the time is my grand wish, which will very likely not happen. I just prefer to put speed in the OF if I can. The most likely outcome is Lewis at SS with Correa swimming in someone else's cash next year, but if he stays I'd love Buxton and Lewis in the OF running everything down. Take away as many extra base hits as possible. But certainly wouldn't be mad with your setup either.

ARod, Ripken, Chipper, Michael Young, Javy Baez, and Ha-Seong Kim are all SSs who either permanently moved to 3B eventually or spent significant time there at some point. And that's just off the top of my head. There's at least 100 guys in the minors right now who started as SSs and have moved to 3B. It's pretty well accepted now that if you can field at SS you can, and probably will, transition to 3B (or 2B depending on arm strength) at some point. I think pretty much everyone expects Corey Seager to end his career at 3B.

I don't know that I learned much of anything. Maybe got some confirmation on some things. Like the Twins aren't the 2nd best pitching staff in baseball. The Twins can't survive a bunch of injuries, especially to Buxton and Correa. The Twins strike out too much and are still not good at clutch hitting/having productive outs. I guess I will say I noticed the young guys being better at going the other way and fighting some pitches off and not being all or nothing sluggers. Celestino and Lewis especially stood out in this series as being willing to shoot one through the right side if that's where the pitch is. Larnach has been better at the same sort of thing this year, but obviously didn't play this series. Overall it's giving me hope that the Sano and Sanchez types may be getting pushed out a little. Although, another confirmation I got was that the Twins still do things I don't understand like hitting Sanchez in the 3 hole when it looks like I could get him out right now. Their lineup construction can still baffle me sometimes.

I'd move him to the OF, but wouldn't be upset with him at 3B either. I hope they don't send him back to AAA. He looks plenty ready for the bigs to me. I don't know what else he'd have to work on in AAA. Unless he goes on a Larnach-esque cold streak I let him adjust to the pitching he sees up here. Playing 4 or 5 games a week in Minneapolis while batting at the bottom of the order and playing a number of positions seems like a reasonable situation for him for the rest of this season.

The problem I have is the same one I have had with their usage of Kepler and Sano the last couple years. Quit hitting Sanchez 3rd! I know the lineup is hurting right now, but he's done absolutely nothing to deserve hitting in front of Polanco. If Sanchez is used as the backup catcher he's absolutely fine. Again, the lineup is hurting right now so it's not totally possible, but if/when the lineup is at full strength he's a more than serviceable option as the #2 catcher. Urshella is finally starting to drop in the lineup which makes sense. He's the best defensive 3B on the team so it's certainly reasonable that he sees playing time there. His ABs look wildly different from day to day. It's really weird. But I don't think it's the end of the world having him at 3B and we can hope he heats up a little in the power department as the season goes on. I don't get the suggestion of DFAing either one. We're watching a lineup of young guys struggle at the major league level and we're suggesting cutting the veterans on the team when they're in first place? Bold strategy. Not to mention the injuries we've already seen are the exact reason you don't just start DFAing guys who have been above average major leaguers. Why would reducing depth be a good strategy? If Miranda clicks and starts hitting great by July maybe you talk about it then, but to this point in his career he's had 1 insane outlier season with video game numbers and then a bunch of "meh" years. I believe in him and think he'll be very good, but cutting somebody to make room for him when he's been nothing special in AAA or MLB this year doesn't make much sense to me. Arraez and Lewis are the other likely options, but Arraez misses time every year, and while I'm the biggest of Lewis supporters I'm never cutting a guy in May to make room for a guy coming off 2 missed years. Move Urshella to the bench, sure, but don't cut him.

He played 3B in the AFL.

Why does he need to be in AAA to get work/improve at SS? Is the argument that it's more important for him to get starts at short or to actually work on his fielding? Because they aren't the same thing. Game reps are absolutely important, but they're not guaranteed. Spending every day working on a good routine with a platinum glove winning SS who was not a great fielder when he came up and turned himself into one while in the majors seems like it would be just as good for his development. Standing at SS for 9 innings and having a handful of grounders hit at you is not how you improve your glove. It helps with game situations and all that, but the actual improvement comes from field work before and/or after games. It's no sure thing he sees a single ball at short in a game. The work he needs is done behind the scenes and he can do that with Twins coaches and Correa.

Agree with @Brock Beauchamp that there's too many variables to give a real answer right now. Maybe Lewis goes 0-12, maybe he goes 9-12 with 3 bombs. Maybe Urshella gets hurt, or he goes 0-12 while Lewis goes 6-12 with 9 missiles hit (3 obviously at people) and Lewis is the better option at 3B. When is Arraez coming back (I'd assume very soon)? When is Larnach coming back? Is Kirilloff going to get going (his swings today looked healthier so far)? I voted for move him to OF, 2B, 1B, but that's just based on the guess that the team won't be fully healthy and at this point he's looked comfortable at the plate (don't care about a .538 OPS in 13 ABs) while some other players have not. He's shown he can play SS. I don't need him back in AAA for that. If he's one of the 13 best position players at the time I want him in the majors now. Working pre-game with Correa on his fielding and learning from the best defensive SS in the game has plenty of developmental opportunities. If he's one of the 13 best hitters and they can reasonably start him 3, 4, or 5 games a week in the majors that's where I think he should be.