chpettit19

Alex Kirilloff has been hurt for the majority of his time in the bigs. You're completely Ignoring that. When Kirilloff was healthy last year he was hitting missiles all over the field and was one of the best bats in the lineup. Then he hurt his wrist and fell off dramatically before having surgery. When he came back this year he was clearly not swinging pain free and went back down. Got a shot and worked through his swing before absolutely demolishing AAA pitching. I've given his exit velo numbers in his 10 healthy ABs this year. That's where the narrative is coming from. Pretending that his first stint this year was an indication of his healthy performance is naive at best. Wrist surgery is a legitimate reason for him to not have results. You're completely ignoring all context of the situation. So, yes, the correct context is that he's had 10 healthy ABs at the major league level this year and in 5 of those he's hit the ball over 97 MPH. Acting like he should've established himself as an elite bat while battling a wrist injury is a ridiculous stance.

Kirilloff has had 10 healthy at bats after spending a month absolutely destroying AAA pitching. Who else are they supposed to play right now? What can a young player possibly do to earn a chance at the major league level if an 1.106 OPS in AAA after being one of the 50 best prospects in all of baseball isn't good enough? If you think his most recent 10 PAs look like the first 32 he had at the beginning of the year you've never watched baseball. Half of his PAs since he's been back from St Paul have ended with him hitting a ball harder Giancarlo Stanton's league leading average of 96.5. His average exit velocity since being back is 96.2. Suggesting that he's looked anything like his injured performance at the beginning of the year is absolutely ridiculous.

So any young player gets 10 ABs to decide if they're ready or not? How many hits in those 10 ABs do they need to establish they're ready? 3 for 10 means you're hitting .300 so they're good? Or does it have to be 4 or 5 for their first 10? Does an average exit velo of 96.2 show that a young guy is hitting the ball hard and is possibly ready or is it strictly getting 3+ (or whatever your cutoff is) hits in their first 10 ABs? Does hitting 5 balls over 97 MPH (98.6, 99.6, 108.8, 104.7, and 97.2 to be exact) suggest they're ready, or is it strictly about batting average?

10 ABs was enough for you to determine he's not ready? That is efficient.

The hitters don't care so much about where they are in the batting order when it comes to their pregame preparation. If Arraez is hitting 5th instead of 1st he doesn't warmup any different. Garlick knows if there's a lefty on the mound tomorrow he's starting. Arraez knows if there's a righty on the mound he's starting. Buxton and Correa know if tomorrow isn't a scheduled off day for them they're starting. Sanchez and Jeffers know their catcher rotation, and Sanchez knows if it's a lefty he's DHing. Kepler knows he's playing unless it's a scheduled off day. Same with Polanco. Celestino knows if it's a lefty he's starting. Larnach knows if it's a righty he's starting. Kirilloff knows if it's a righty he's starting. Urshela knows he's starting at 3B unless it's a scheduled off day. Miranda knows if it's a lefty he's starting. Where they are in the order doesn't change anything. They know the situations they play in and what their roles on the team are. The only time their pregame preparation is different than usual is if it's an off day for Buxton or Correa. Especially Buxton. He knows those are treatment days for him and doesn't go through his normal pregame routine. Other than that these guys do the same thing everyday in preparation for the game, even if they aren't starting. Sitting hot players for a rest day is a different conversation, though.

I'd be surprised if they traded Polanco, but I think your timeline makes more sense than trading any of these guys in the middle of a pennant chase. I'd like them to take a shot at signing those pre-arb guys to 7 year deals and pairing that with a Correa 7 year deal. I don't think there's much of a chance they do that as they really value their flexibility (and I don't expect them to extend Correa), but if they could have their whole core locked up for 7 years of cost certainty they'd be in a pretty good spot. Just a lot of pressure on those young guys to turn into who they expect/hope they are. But, generally speaking, I think the offseason is when we see them make bigger decisions on players. The trade deadline is more likely to be small deals for relief pitchers.

This post is about veteran players the Twins could trade while improving their pitching depth for this season. Why would what the Twins could get back not be the focus? This post wasn't about whether or not the Twins would be willing to trade these players, or any players, but was about veterans at "positions of strength" that could be dealt for "pitching depth." Responding that they couldn't get good pitching depth back for these players is focusing on what the post was about. The author presented the topic as improving a contending Twins 2022 team by trading veterans for veterans. Your, or my, opinion on where they may go is of no factor on the topic presented by the author. He didn't say the Twins may trade veterans if they fall back and don't think they can contend, he said "As the calendar gets closer to July, Minnesota's roster looks like it will need more pitching depth to stay at the top of the AL Central." My contention is that trading anyone on this list at the deadline wouldn't improve the 2022 team overall, or, in a couple of the cases, the Twins pitching depth in any meaningful way, and laid out why I thought that.

Urshela: Maybe a contender throws the Twins a random middle reliever for him? That doesn't help the 2022 Twins as their entire pen is made up of random middle relievers already. Kepler: Maybe San Diego would want to get out from under some money and would be willing to give up Snell or Clevinger? Neither of those guys moves the pitching needle enough to make up for Kepler's defense alone. Sano: He's not worth anything. Maybe a 13th man on a pitching staff? Again, doesn't help the Twins in 2022. Correa: There's no feasible way trading Correa helps the 2022 team. There's no contender that would trade major league pitching for Correa. I don't even understand how his name gets on a list that's supposedly supposed to be trading from positions of strength (who's the other player that makes SS a strength for the 2022 Twins?) to add pitching depth (what pitcher that would be equal to Correa's value is a contender trading away?). He makes no sense on this list at all. Really the whole list is pretty shaky (to be kind). Contenders generally don't trade away pitching. No matter what people may think about a team's pitching depth, contenders don't trade good pitching. That's what this article is supposedly suggesting the Twins would be looking to get in return. If you're going to get a pitcher that improves the staff for 2022 you have to go to non-contenders and they want prospects, not these guys.

Their base running is so bad. Some of it is a general lack of speed, but much of it is just really bad base running. It's costing them runs for sure. I'm not a proponent of "get 'em over," (only time I'm trading an out for moving a base runner is if it's scoring the runner) but they are very bad at "get 'em in" with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. At least it feels that way. I haven't looked up any stats. But the strikeouts with a guy on 3rd and 1 out drive me nuts so it certainly feels like they fail in those situations a lot. They really need Kirilloff to step up while Polanco gets healthy and Correa, Arraez, and Buxton stay healthy. They need to be able to plug those 5 in everyday and let them do their thing (even against lefty starters, IMO). Put those 5 at the top everyday and just mess with the back 4 in the order based on matchups. At least that's what I'd do.

What about 1991?

Perdomo is a switch hitter. And Thielbar is scheduled to face the 2-4 hitters here which go lefty, lefty to start. The bigger problem is the lack of any other lefties in the pen. But saving your 1 lefty for their best lefties is pretty reasonable.

I believe with having had an off day Thursday, only Thornburg and Duffey throwing Friday, Bundy having gone 8 yesterday, and the off day tomorrow they wanted to get the pen arms an inning each to keep them fresh since most of them hadn't thrown in quite a while.

They have rules about who can pitch and who can be labeled as a 2 way player. You have to label a pitcher as a pitcher or they aren't allowed to pitch in any game that is within 5 runs. Position players are only allowed to pitch in games when a team is leading by at least 6, if the game is in extra innings, or the player is designated as a two-way player. A player can only be designated as a two-way player if they have thrown at least 20 major league innings and plays at least 20 games as a position player or DH, and has at least 3 plate appearances in each of those games.

I have hope for the future, too, but think they're still a bat or 2 short this year. Miranda and Larnach are the best internal hopes (maybe Steer? But he'll have his own adjustment period), but neither of them are guys I'd pen into a playoff lineup yet. So, for this year, they have 4.5 playoff bats (Kirilloff being the .5). Wouldn't suggest any big trades for anything but a controllable catcher, but they're still lacking consistent bats for this year. I agree there's hope for the future, but losing Correa will open another hole as well (fingers crossed for Lewis).

I think the problem with the Twins offense/position player situation is that they have too many "deserves to be on major league roster" guys and not enough "deserves to hit in top 5 of playoff caliber offense" guys. Urshela, Kepler, Gordon, Garlick, Celestino, Jeffers, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Miranda can all present very good cases as to why they should be on the Twins roster. Only Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco can present very good cases as to why they should be plugged in as everyday, top of the order players. Kepler, Sanchez, and Urshela have solid cases as for being everyday 7-9 hole hitters on playoff caliber teams. And if they were hitting 7-9 (in some order) everyday for the Twins I'd be happy. The problem is, at least partially due to injuries to others, they're hitting in the heart of the order instead of bringing up the rear. Jeffers argument really is that he's a very good framer and helps the pitching staff and they don't have any other catchers to replace him. Offensively he should be in AAA. Gordon's calling card is being a "gamer" and providing solid speed and versatility. He's a perfect 26th man. But due to injuries he's had to play a bigger role than that throughout the year. Celestino, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Miranda have all had stretches that show they're ready for the bigs, but they need to continue to make adjustments and become more consistent. I'm a huge Kirilloff believer and expect him to lay claim to a spot along side Buxton, Arraez, Correa, and Polanco as an everyday, top of the order bat by the trade deadline. That'd give the Twins 5 everyday guys and a more than reasonable top 5. Maybe he won't do that, though. I believe in Larnach and Miranda as well. I think they could be the 6/7 hitters behind those top 5 and push guys like Urshela and Kepler to more of a part time role, but they're not there yet. The Twins have 14 ML position players right now, but I don't think that means there aren't spots that could clearly be upgraded. Urshela, Kepler, and Sanchez hitting in the heart of the order is a problem. They aren't good enough for that. They're good enough to be important pieces on a playoff team, but not top 6 in the order. As for Sano, they should give him a nice long rehab stint to see where his bat is at, but if he's going to need another month and a half to 2 months to get heated up like he does in April/May then I think it's time to say goodbye. If he comes back swinging like his middle-of-the-season self then I let him ride out his hot streak as the DH until he goes cold again. But a cold Sano would get no shot in September or October for me.

Those stats are the combined stats of the hitters in those lineup positions for all games. Arraez has spent the majority of his time in the 2 hole so that's why I credited him there.

Kirilloff is not starting tonight, fyi. And MLB just announced pitching staffs have to be down to 13 by Monday so that should mean Kirilloff is staying. Let's hope at least!

This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.

I wouldn't call that an appeal to authority, I'd call it an appeal to more educated people on a subject matter with far, far, far more information than those arguing about it. A lot of the arguments against Baldelli are based on him being dumb in some way and not understanding the "correct" way to manage/play baseball. Responding to such claims by pointing out that the Twins have data that 90% of fans could never even think of is a more than reasonable response. Because it's an indisputable fact that Baldelli and the Twins organization know more about baseball than every TD user combined (unless some of these users are Falvey burner accounts). "He knows more than you" shouldn't be used in every situation, but it's a more than reasonable response when rebutting fans claiming to know more than him. Especially when there are stats, quotes, and strategy points to back it up. Baldelli and the Twins manage the pitching staff the way they do because they have millions of lines of data that say that's how they should do it. Pointing that out isn't an appeal to authority, it's an appeal to knowledge and data. Those are very different things to me. We're all entitled to our opinions, but not all opinions are created equal.

I don't like guys bouncing up and down the lineup as frequently as it feels like it happens, but it's pretty typical in today's game. The players have established routines, but that isn't based around where they are in the lineup, or even if they're in the lineup. The players know well before we do whether they're playing in a certain game or not and can adjust based on that. But they have the same routine every game day. Every player not named Shoemaker has had nothing but praise for Baldelli and the Twins. It's hard for me to imagine that Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez would tell Carlos Correa good things about Baldelli if they're frustrated with his lineup management and that they could never get into a routine. That argument feels far more like people not in the know basing things on their guesses and not actual evidence of anything. As for putting Lewis in CF, I don't get the backlash there. He's played it before. Was the correct answer to leave one of their top 5 or 6 players in AAA because he couldn't be trusted to run around the OF? His injury is absolutely brutal, and I can't imagine the frustration he must be facing, but there doesn't have to be blame for every bad thing that happens. He tore his ACL on a play that that knee was barely involved in. That's a freak accident and it sucks.

That would make sense.

I think you're overstating the stance the FO took during the offseason. They said they'd look to get creative and piggy-back situations may be part of that, but I don't remember any quotes of where they expressed that was the be-all, end-all plan for the season. The quotes I remember were mentioning those sorts of things as possibilities depending on how the offseason came together around the lockout, etc. Suggesting Winder was that plan at the start of the year is suggesting that they went into the offseason expecting Winder to be on the opening day roster, and not him having performed so well in ST that he took the job. I don't think there's any proof that Baldelli talked them out of long relief in any way, shape, or form, and I don't think there's any proof that they went into this season looking to have a solid long relief stable. I think the truth is they went with 1 long reliever (Winder) just like they had the season before (Dobnak), and got the same result of an injury altering the plan almost immediately. If the plan was to go big on piggy backing early they would've had more than just Winder available for long relief. Baldelli is absolutely part of discussions about pitching strategy, along with Wes, but to suggest the FO had a plan and he talked them out of it is a real bold statement. It's not often a boss in a job with such high turnover rates let's one of their employees talk them out of their strategy.

If I'm trading anything worthwhile it's for Montas or Castillo, and that's it. Ryan and Gray are 2 guys that can start playoff games. Montas or Castillo would be the only ones I want because they're the only 2 that would slot in above those guys. Ober or Winder as the 4th guy in the postseason rotation would be good for me. I think Archer, Maeda, and Alcala would be 3 big time additions to the pen down the stretch and for the playoffs. So the question for me is if Archer would be willing to accept that role, and what they expect from Maeda and Alcala as far as health is concerned. Sounds like Alcala is expected back in a couple weeks so they'll have a good idea about him before the deadline. I'd have Moran up to really see if he can be a counted on piece in the pen so I'm not sure what the strategy is with him right now. I don't think they need to bring in any extra bats. I think they need to get Kirilloff up and be ready to go "top 9" come playoff time/the stretch run. Give Sanchez the #1 catcher role and quit DHing a catcher. I believe Kirilloff is the 4th or 5th best hitter in this organization and don't get the "there's no room for him" arguments. DH, LF, RF, 1B. There's more than enough ABs for him between those 4 spots. I agree bench guys need to get semi-regular ABs to stay sharp, but not at the expense of Kirilloff, Buxton, Arraez, Correa, or Polanco (when they're healthy). So for me the trades I'd be looking at are for Montas or Castillo. I wouldn't be in "whatever it takes" mode, but I'd have a list of guys I was willing to part with and I'd see what I could make happen. Outside that I'd only be looking at cheap relievers that don't cost any "real" prospects. I think a 13 man staff of Ryan, Gray, Ober, Winder, Duran, Archer, Maeda, Alcala, Moran, Thielbar, Jax, Cotton, Smeltzer could win some playoff games, but would prefer to see Montas or Castillo in there over Cotton if the cost isn't too high for them. Wouldn't be mad with an extra insurance piece or 2 for the pen, but I think health is the bigger concern with the pitching overall.

OBP by order position: 1st: .336 2nd: .384 (Luis Arraez is good at what he does) 3rd: .374 4th: .335 5th: .277 6th: .263 7th: .289 8th: .328 9th: .319 The 8 and 9 hole hitters are actually doing ok at getting on base. .319 would be good for 10th in baseball in terms of team OBP (tied with Boston and San Diego). .328 is what the Dodgers have as the number 2 team in baseball. HRs by order position: 1st: 16 2nd: 10 3rd: 14 4th: 3 5th: 8 6th: 10 7th: 5 8th: 6 9th: 2 Buxton has 18 HRs, so if he was hitting in the 3 hole all year he'd only be adding 4 homeruns to the total. It'd give a little boost, but certainly nothing drastic. The 3 hole has also had 15 fewer PAs this year than the leadoff spot. 4 hole has 23 fewer. So there really isn't a great deal of improvement that would be gained by dropping him. The 4 hole having the lowest slugging percentage on the team is certainly not ideal, though.

In 2019 the Twins had the 9th best ERA in baseball. Does that help, or is just that he doesn't get credit for anything on the field and managers are a complete non-factor?