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  1. Option A, please, and don't waste money on a Big 4 (let others damage themselves with that mistake). Spend the money on getting an ace (like Rodon), a starting catcher (like Contreras or Vasquez), and a legitimate starting outfielder (I don't care about LH or RH; I want an MLB hitter/defender to lock down a spot among the injured/inexperienced/stupid (yep, Gilberto, that's you). Maybe even get get Abreu to be our new Cruz. Maybe add cheap SS depth. Options abound if we don't waste money over-paying a shortstop for the better part of a decade for past work. There is no evidence an "elite" shortstop is needed to win a title, and a boatload of evidence that most shortstops peak before they get to free agency. Plus we had Correa last year; it was worth a try, and pretty exciting, but I'm not real interested in a redo (and he's the best and youngest of the Big 4 bunch).
  2. I'm tipping my cap for the year, and bidding him farewell. Spending big money on shortstop is goofy; you get bigger bang for the buck elsewhere. I'm glad the Twins tried it (the lockout limited the options and Correa was a noble effort), but signing him limits most other moves, and we have many needs. Because Correa was on the team this year, and is anyone out there happy with the results? Committing serious resources for almost a decade to a player who has at most three years of elite SS play left is extra goofy. It not only hurts us in the short run, but will be a millstone around the neck that gets worse every year. It is the sort of thing that forced Boston into shipping out one of the game's gems, Mookie Betts; they couldn't even keep their best internally developed player, because of albatross contracts. And FYI, if Carlos wanted to play here, he had a deal for $70+ million signed with the Twins that he voided. After his replacement in Houston won MVP, my guess is he wants to sign in LA or NY or some organization that will be a Series favorite, and that won't be the Twins (especially if they sign Carlos, and fill out their roster with rookies and waiver claim projects). He wants a long Twins contract about as much as I want him to sign one.
  3. Great for Kirk, but the fact is that it is radical/rarely done surgery. Alex may come back strong, but he also may never come back. Having to pencil a giant question mark like Kirilloff, an oft-injured Larnach, and a recent AA grad in Wallner in as a third of your starting lineup, while leaving serial screw-up and light-hitting Celestino as a key reserve is precisely why... spending $35-40 million at shortstop is a BAD IDEA. Not just for the Twins, but for any team not in one of the country's largest markets. (Texas sure was awesome last year, right?) Spend 1/3-1/4 of that short term on a good stopgap SS, get a starting level OF and C, and re-sign Urshela with the balance. That leaves space for the prospects to develop into starters instead of betting the farm (and season) on them being both healthy and good. Because if they are Plan A, there is no Plan B.
  4. SS is not our area of most need. You can win with a decent shortstop, and we DID NOT win with Correa in 2022. Neither did any of the LCS teams this year. If you don't spend that money on shortstop (instead, spend a much smaller amount on a decent stopgap, because Lewis and Lee are coming at some point in 2023), you can address some of the other wild shortcomings of your roster. Narvaez (or Vasquez, I'm not a platoon fetishist) would be nice at catcher. Rodon should be a top priority. But so should another OF of starting quality (like a Benintendi; hit .300 and flashed Gold Glove level D). Any roster with Celestino on it (light-hitting airhead) is weak; dude needs serious AAA time. Also, any lineup that counts on Alex Kirilloff (who is recovering from experimental surgery that cut out bone to make his forearm shorter) is fantasy; he may be great, or he may never play in MLB again. The Twins should keep Urshela, and plan on Miranda mostly at first, unless they do go out and sign Mancini (in which you let Gio go, and play Mancini at 1B and Jose at 3B). Signing Mancini is more plausible without the money going to Correa.
  5. Signing Correa to a long massive contract would be a massive mistake. I loved having him on the team this year, but it was essentially proof that having one of the best all-around team-mate/fielding/hitting shortstops in MLB didn't keep this team from being not very good in a weak division. They simply have too many other needs, and the massive contract will keep them from addressing those needs. This isn't only a Twins issue; I put (again) the question to all those who want to sign Correa: When was the last World Series champion with a big money shortstop? I've been through the past decade-plus, and can't find one. I don't think it is a fluke; building a balanced roster means strategic spending, and shortstop is a position that likely peaks either in the arbitration years of a player's career, or shortly thereafter. The resources to retain a player like Correa are simply more strategically spent elsewhere, particularly if you are a mid-to-small market team. None of the final four teams this year got to the LCS with a big-dollar SS (San Diego had one, but he was suspended through their playoff push and early playoff success). Houston (spending money on pitching and other locations) let Correa go, and is on the verge of a championship. Again, I was a fan of the signing and Correa's play/impact, but you can even make an argument the Twins would have been better this year without him (Lewis comes up earlier, and maybe doesn't get hurt, though that is a big maybe). I'm not a big fan of re-running 2022 when signing a top SS made only a marginal improvement to our record. Let's tip our cap to Carlos for the time served, and spend our money on areas where we both have need (#1 SP, catcher, outfield), and where there is a history of top free agents having championship impact on teams.
  6. The OP (and the series) is doing good work in assessing trade values, because if you ARE going to do trades for real talent, you can't send back people you might be dumping from the 40 man in a couple weeks (other teams are at least as informed as Twins Daily readers). That being said, I agree with the many who say don't trade him now. His trade value is not great, and he as a pretty clear path to the majors in the outfield, and potentially at 2b. Someone mentioned Kepler, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Celestino earlier; Max is glove-only (aka a reserve) at this point, Kirilloff had pieces of bone cut out of his arm to shorten it (aka, he may NEVER play an MLB game again), Wallner has promise (but few at-bats above AA), and Celestino... (maybe the lowest baseball IQ I've seen in a Twins uni in decades). The Twins outfield has been a mess the past two years, and the team can only dream right now of somebody being good enough to block Martin's path.
  7. I normally like your stuff, Jamie, but strongly disagree here. In order… You can disagree about rating, but adding a catcher is a VERY pressing need. Jeffers is the only one on the 40-man, and the MILB options don’t scream “Ready!” yet. My personal order would be #1 Starting Pitcher, OF (D and bat), Catcher (maybe bumping up to #2 if he can really hit). Bullpen depth is addressed by adding a #1 SP (pushing a starter into the ‘pen and a marginal arm to the minors). We absolutely do not need a long term solution at SS; we have Lewis back mid-season, and Lee possibly forcing his way to the majors around the same time. Signing a long term contract to the position our top two prospects play is a waste of money. Jeffers absolutely has NOT shown he can be a primary catcher. He’s been injured, people bring up his ability to throw out base-stealers, because he has been dreadful at it, and only if you cherry-pick a few 10 game stretches can you say his bat even belongs in the majors (his career batting average is .210, his 2022 was .208). He has promise, but since his 26 game debut in 2020, Ryan has really struggled to hit even .200. He should be a solid roster likelihood, but not THE answer at catcher. The third point misses the point that catching is now a time-share position. We NEED a catcher even with Jeffers, and the team gets much better if that catcher (Contreras? Vasquez?) can take the pressure off of Jeffers, pick up (legitimate) DH at-bats, and help in Ryan’s development. Get a real player, and let their play decide who is “primary”.
  8. What @tarheeltwinsfan said. It is actually cheaper to be top bidder for Rodón now, than give away another package of our top prospects (further bankrupting our farm system and future) for a pitcher who will walk in a couple years unless he gets Rodón money anyway. And last year's team was NOT a pitcher away from winning it all; they need the SP, a few additions, and Lewis, Lee, and most the others in the packages being part of our core by 2024.
  9. I guess we mostly disagree about his potential for next year. Sale was absolutely great (I follow the Red Sox secondarily to the Twins, and still get the e-Globe after living there a couple years), and at least one of his setbacks is a total fluke, but... in 2018 he had a couple bouts of shoulder issues that put him on the DL, in 2019 the Red Sox were super careful about workload all season, but still had to shut him down (I think shoulder again?) in mid August. In 2020 it was the UCL surgery. He's a tall (6' 6") dude who is REALLY skinny (180-ish), and the concerns about the stress he puts on his joints may not have been warranted in his 20s, but are potentially coming home to roost in his 30s. I wouldn't mind signing him to a one year Maeda-like 'make good' contract. And I'd base it more on healthy availability than innings pitched, because I think his true future is as closer where he could use that electric stuff in short outings that wouldn't blow joint gaskets. (After the way he slammed the door on the Dodgers in 2018, I can only imagine a combo of Sale and Duran to end games; it would be freakin' awesome!) But I'd still want the big contract to go to Rodón.
  10. Ummm. Don't be shocked. There is no way 48 innings delivered across ELEVEN starts (aka 4 1/3 innings per start aka an unhealthy Chris Archer through a similar sample size) is elite. In his last season that was anything like full, Sale had an ERA over 4. There were indications he had some arm issues before Boston gave him the latest contract (the reason he pitched out of the 'pen in the '18 playoffs), and it blew up on them. Sale doesn't belong in the cream of anything until he proves it (probably on a Maeda-style contract); if the Twins go this route as their pitching move, it is just a slightly more upside version of Bundy/Archer/Happ/etc. They have the money free now, and Rodón should be the main target. It will probably take something like 4 (plus maybe an option), and high 20s to low 30s. Frankly the Falvines need to break form, and talk early big money to get Rodón's attention, then sign him so they can get to work on other issues. If they wait, or if they give a "fair" offer (like the one to Yu Darvish), they will be left on the outside again, and likely have to fall back on a far lesser option.
  11. I was with Ted's original post until the throw-in line that you can afford both a frontline starter and Correa. Which is completely wrong. Sign Correa, and Rodón is gone. Sign Rodón and Correa is gone, because I agree with @jmlease1 that you are probably talking 5 years and pushing $30 milliion per year. And that is what I'd do, because we need a healthy Rodón more than we need Correa. (Reminder, we HAD Carlos this year and finished a distant 3rd in a weak division.) Nope (where I disagree with jm), we can't make up the rest with minimum contracts, because this team was not even close to being a player away; we need a starting catcher and another potent OF bat at least. And we both need to have our young players get healthy and develop into stars (possible), and still be able to sign them in 2-3 years (not possible if we tie up all of our money for 5 years on both the ace and SS).
  12. He's a decent option especially since that gives you serious money to pursue other players as well. There are others (like IKF who may be non-tendered or available from the Yankees cheap because they are about to non-tender him, and we already know the Twins like him). The key is to not blow $35 million at shortstop, but get a solid MLB-player there, and spend most of the (fairly unprecedented) FA budget on Rodón, a starting catcher (like Vasquez or Contreras), and a starting OF (like Hanigar or Benintendi). That should make us far better than this year. Spending big on SS means we'll be pretty much like we were in 2022.
  13. I totally agree with Ted that next year's Opening Day is probably not in the organization right now. Palacios was definitely the most MLB-ready, and he essentially played himself out of the competition in September (with at-bats of the quality that got pitchers replaced with the universal DH). We also demonstrably need far MORE than a shortstop since we had Correa this year, and were not good. Spending over $30 million on SS will both severely restrict adding in other areas of need (because the people who point out our roster is several players short of the current LCS teams are correct), and IT HAS LITTLE HISTORY OF WORKING. Because @Brett this year is NOT a fluke. No team in at least a decade has won the Series spending big dollars at SS. Your SS can be great or not (though they do need to be decent), but you need a complete roster around them, and NOBODY has managed that budget strategy successfully after committing big coin to SS. (And any team that pulls it off is almost certainly going to be one like the Yankees or Dodgers who have revenues that dwarf ours.) The Astros are the model here. Develop a great SS, play him through the arbitration years, then let him walk into free agency and move on so you can put money into proven areas of need (like elite starting pitching and higher power bats than any shortstop wields). The glove is most important here with a bat that doesn't hurt the order and a salary that doesn't limit the roster.
  14. Well, clearly you read very little I wrote. I advocate spending $28-30 million a year on Rodón, and another roughly $20 million per year to get a STARTING catcher (Jeffers is a backup until he proves otherwise), and a starting OF, and you read that as "dont spend money at all?" Not sure how you got there, but you be you. It also seems you are making up the "If we aren't spending it on SS, we aren't spending it on anyone." There is no basis for that speculation (until last year the Twins had never spent anything like that ON shortstop), and without that tenet your argument kind of falls apart. FYI, the Twins HAD that SS this year, so essentially you are saying the Twins were a couple great BP arms and a quality backup catcher away this year, and while it might have helped in the division, and... well... I don't agree. If you could clone the 2022 Twins (especially the roster of the last two months when Correa was at his best), add two great bullpen arms to the originals, then delete Correa, and add Rodón, Christian Vasquez and Andrew Benintendi, I'd pick the Clones over the Originals in a 7 game series time after time. The Twins have a fairly rare abundance of unassigned FA/roster money this offseason. They have recent proof (aka the 2022 Twins and Rangers) a big money SS isn't "the" answer here. They may have noticed that NO recent Series winner (a decade plus and guaranteed already again for this year) had a big contract at SS. They also have been open to wildly unusual (for this franchise) wheeling and dealing including big contracts. So I think all bets are reasonably off on what they "will" do.
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