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2022 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

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  1. I think the Twins will get an Ace this off-season, but I think it’s gonna be Via trade rather than by signing a Top-End Free Agent. Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Pablo Lopez and Chris Sale all look like they could head to Minnesota, and I think we have the ability if we trade some major league talent. This team already has a strong 5-man: Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda while Winder, SWR and Varland all look Major-League capable. All this rotation needs is a cherry on top…and to be healthy.
  2. Use Opt-outs, differed money and Incentives to bring him in. $32, $32, $32, $32, $32, $30 Player Option w/ $5m Buyout, $30, $25m Player Option w/ $5m Buyout, $20, $21. Differed 5yr/$40m to 2036-2040, taken off of back-half of contract. $3m MVP Escalator Incentive, $1m Incentive for Gold Glove, $100k Incentive for a Post-season series MVP. That’s a 10yr/$326m Contract with Incentives to boot. I think 326 is a perfect number for Correa because he beats Seager’s contract.
  3. I really want Abreu in the Minnesota Lineup, but I don’t see it happening without trading away a different 1B. Arraez is most likely to be traded but he shouldn’t in the slightest, Miranda could be the next Abreu and Kirilloff looks the most fit for First if his Wrist heals up. Chase after Xander Bogaerts, he’s got an Impressive RBI count and his offensive production has stayed consistent for 5 years now, and fills a position where you need an everyday guy for at least a year.
  4. Yes, there will be a solid reliance on Maeda, Mahle and Ober. But I doubt all 3 of these pitchers will be as injured as last year, plus Louie Varland and SWR are major-league ready if any of that group underperforms. Get an Ace who can Pitch 200 Innings and that’s all you need for starters.
  5. This is a big issue that hasn’t really been talked about, as it stands the Twins don’t have a ton of impact bats, especially RBI hitters. Here’s how the lineup looks as of right now: (btw I guarantee we trade Kepler, so im not counting him) 1. Buxton, CF 2. Arraez, 1B 3. - 4. Miranda, DH 5. Polanco, 2B 6. Kirilloff, LF 7. Larnach, RF 8. - 9. Jeffers, C Bench: 1. Gordon, Farmer, Garlick, Backup Catcher to be named (Celestino and Wallner are in the minors) Larnach and Kirilloff could be huge but aren’t proven and while I think Miranda will be very good I don’t think he’ll hit 30 Home Runs and Drive in 100 RBIs this year, so an Improvement as a 4th batter would be nice. To be fair, I would like them to get a very good pitching staff and rock-solid bullpen before this and deal with impact bats at the deadline, but power hitters would still be nice. The twins had awful Slugging %’s last year, let’s improve on that.
  6. I would be all for an Arraez extension, he’s a great top of the lineup hitter. My real question is whether he stays at first, which seemed to work in 2022, or if Miranda or Kirilloff (hopefully the latter) replaced him as a mainstay at a position. If I were the Twins, I would see another year of these 3 to see if he gets an extension at all. Along with that, Arraez’s high-average bat is very valuable, but if Lewis, Lee and Martin all come out as High-average/OBP options then he becomes more expendable in that regard as well.
  7. 7 Starters, 6 on the opening day rotation barring injury. Varland and Woods-Richardson wait in the ranks, along with Balazovic if he can rebound. I think that list should be enough for 2023, at least until the all-star break. I would like to see them sign Rodon or trade for an Ace, probably using Ober or Winder in a package.
  8. Farmer will likely be a utility infielder in 2023, he’ll mash lefties but will likely need to show he’s worth a pay raise for 2024 if the Twins want to hold him until free Agency.
  9. It doesn’t really make sense for either side, but I see a $2 million minor league deal possibly being sent to Sano. If we were as injured as last year he wouldn’t be a bad depth option.
  10. Kyle Farmer is the Infield version of Kyle Garlick. Look at his splits vs. Pitchers, he posted a .611 OPS vs. Righties and a .948 OPS against Lefties In 2022. Now the Twins need to chase someone who crushes Righties at Third/Short and you’ve got a serious Platoon option at those positions.
  11. Renfroe is the perfect low-risk high-reward pick. People will complain about his defense but Garlick’s isn’t much better, plus Wallner is going to be up early in the year and will make up for Renfroe’s defense. He can be an impact bat batting 4/5/6 and for around $10-11 million on a one year deal that sounds good, he also won’t cost much to trade for
  12. Move #1: Non-Tender Emilio Pagan and Waiver Mark Contreras this clears up space on the 40-man roster, Pagan isn’t consistent enough and Contreras is awful with the bat, but I could see him returning. 40-man Total: 38 Move #2: Trade Max Kepler to the Kansas City Royals for Adalberto Mondesi and Luca Tresh The Royals need more outfielders and like high-quality defense, which they will find in Kepler. With Bobby Witt, Nicky Lopez and Nick Pratto covering second, third, and Short Mondesi becomes expendable, and fills a backup infielder role in Minnesota. Tresh is a Catching Prospect who ended his year in AA, and is KC’s 15th ranked prospect. He adds at least one top 30 Catcher to the Twin’s Farm System. 40-Man total: 38 Move #3: Sign C Christian Vasquez to a 2-year, $14 million deal ($6.5, $6.5, $7m Club Option w/ $1m buyout) Vasquez provides veteran leadership and a serviceable bat to Platoon with Jeffers for the next 2-3 years. 40-Man Total: 39 Move #4: Trade Trevor Larnach, Josh Winder and Steven Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays for Tyler Glasnow and Nick Bitsko yes, this does look exactly like the Chris Archer Trade. I think Glasnow is a different case however, as when he’s healthy he could be in contention for a Cy Young award easily, look at 2019 and 2021. His $30m Guaranteed over the next 2 years makes his contract shaky, but manageable. It also is why I threw Nick Bitsko in, so it’s not all just Glasnow. Larnach and Winder have potential but are inconsistent and injury-prone, while Cruz can throw 100 with control issues. A work in progress that Tampa is okay with taking on. 40-Man Total: 38 Move #5: Trade Kyle Garlick, Edouard Julien, Tanner Schobel and Brayan Medina to the San Francisco Giants for Tyler Rogers, Austin Slater and Sean Hjelle. Might take a bit to explain this one. Slater is actually my main target for this one, providing above-average offense and an ability to capably play all 3 outfield spots. Rogers is key for my next move, and adds more quality to the bullpen at a low price. Hjelle I just like, he’s a Minnesota Native and the Twins have fixed taller players before (Ober). As for the return, San Fran loves platoons and needs a righty in the outfield, Garlick is the perfect fit. Julien becomes their 2B of the future, while Schobel and Medina they need to figure out (This is the deal I’m most shaky on for the return). 40-Man Total: 39 Move #6: Sign Taylor Rogers to a 3-year, $24 million deal ($7, $8, $8, $9m Club Option w/ $1m Buyout) The Twins could always use bullpen help, and Rogers would be a welcome addition to help shut down the 8th/9th. 40-Man Total: 40 Move #7: Twins Acquire Hunter Renfroe and James Wood for Jordan Balazovic and Trevor Megill. Renfore replaces both Kepler and Garlick, providing Lefty-Mashing from the middle of the lineup for a season before Wallner gets called up. Balazovic and Megill will likely become great with the Brewers somehow, but that’s alright. 40-Man Total: 39 Final Move: Sign SS Xander Bogaerts to a 7-year, $200 Million deal ($25, $30, $30, $30, $30, $28, $27) The Twins get their High-end Shortstop and 3rd Batter, Bogaerts holds down Short for 2 years and then transfers to Second Eventually. 40-Man Total: 40 Minor move elsewhere: Sign Zack Collins to a 1-year, $700 thousand minor league deal Other Notes: Jovani Moran, Gilberto Celestino, and Zack Collins all begin season at Saint Paul, all on $700k Salaries, raising the total to $139.5m. C: Christian Vasquez ($6.50M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.63M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($8.67M) SS: Xander Bogaerts ($25.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($10.80M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Austin Slater ($2.70M) Utility: Adalberto Mondesi ($3.00M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) SP1: Tyler Glasnow ($5.35M) SP2: Sonny Gray ($12.70M) SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP4: Tyler Mahle ($7.18M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.10M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($0.80M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.25M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($7.00M) RP: Tyler Rogers ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($3.12M) Payroll is 5.07% under budget
  13. Right now it’s really a choice of what big FA do you want: a high-end shortstop (Correa, Bogaerts, or Swanson, as they’ve all been receiving interest from the FO) or an Ace in Carlos Rodon? We have a lot of money but not enough for both, unless this front office wants to leave all other fields (bullpen, outfield) incredibly weak
  14. 1. Like it but Correa will want more money 2. twins don’t need another 1B. Miranda, Kirilloff and Arraez are good enough and cheap 3. no. Brooks Lee looks like the next Trea Turner (minus the speed), his hit tool is easily the best in the organization. Trade other prospects if you have to. 4. I like this, should be on the table but Urshela should stay. 5. not very against Narvaez, but offer less money after his disastrous 2022. 6. Like a closer signing, but I think Jansen is too high of an acquisition with noticeable issues. Sign Rogers or Robertson instead.
  15. True, but his Arb cost, low defensive value and single year of control won’t make him super expensive. Give up a decent prospect or 2 and it should be enough, my ideal trade was Balazovic and Megill for him.
  16. Good list, Teoscar just got sent off to Seattle so he’s off the board. Happ is more of a left-fielder so he wouldn’t really fit, Bellinger’s struggles and the fact that he’s a lefty make him not desirable, Hernandez I could see as a piece but seems not likely, I also like the options of Hunter Renfroe, Austin Hays, and Austin Slater to provide righty help, with the latter 2 having the ability to play center and having more years of control.
  17. Rogers looks like he should probably fill a high-end reliever role or setup job, and could still bounce back to being a closer. His struggles in Milwaukee will likely make him cheaper and the Twins could use another veteran lefty, send him a contract for $6-8m a year on a 2-3 year contract (idk if the organization would do that, but let’s hope so). This bullpen needs improvements and bringing back Rogers could be an easy one.
  18. Fantastic Idea, the Bay Area also has some solid pieces the twins could trade for and that 1-2 combo would be wonderful in high-leverage, which is exactly what the twins need.
  19. I really like the option of Renfroe, Garlick just avoided arbitration and could be traded for scraps, Renfroe succeeded in being a middle-of-the-order bat for Milwaukee last year and demolishes lefties, making for a great platoon for Gordon/Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner while still holding solid number against righties. Sure, his defense is shaky, but that’s a risk I’ll take when Wallner’s defense balances it as a trade-off.
  20. Don’t Chase after a 1B/DH Option, the only real big bats the Twins should chase after are Mitch Haniger and the 4 High-End Shortstops of Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, and Swanson
  21. Let’s Look to 2023 and see who’s lined up: Ace: Sonny Gray, 5-6 Innings #2: Joe Ryan, 5-6 Innings #3: Tyler Mahle, 5-6 Innings #4: Bailey Ober, 5 Innings #5: Kenta Maeda, 5 Innings (bullpen maybe, returning from Tommy John) #6: Josh Winder, likely long reliever to start the year. 3-4 Inning workloads to start, possible rotation piece further along. The Twins could get another starter and use Maeda and Winder as long relievers, or go get a long-reliever of their own, like Drew Smyly, Zach Eflin, or Matthew Boyd. Or just simply go get an ace who can eat Innings, like Shane Bieber, Carlos Rodon, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Anderson, or Chris Bassitt (all of which pitched over 175 innings in 2022)
  22. I don’t understand what the Twins plans are for the future at Catcher. There isn’t a single prospect at the position in our system that looks like more than a backup, and there isn’t any future help either. Jeffers will be a FA eventually, and the Twins should’ve drafted a Catcher somewhere in the draft this year. What did they do? Get 5 middle-infielders instead. Please fix the position, and fix it soon.
  23. Murphy is high-end, at would be a great addition to the system. However I feel that SS and an Ace would be higher needs and the Twins don’t have as much prospect capitol to get a stud like Murphy. That’s completely fine, as Jeffers feels like a Platoon option at worst. Shoot for someone with less trade capitol but still a good amount of control.
  24. Trade for Danny Jansen, the Blue Jays won’t need him and he’s got fairly even splits from both sides of the plate. He’s got an asking price but it’s not too far out of reach, so send Larnach to Toronto and boom you have your starting catcher.
  25. None of them. If the Twins do inevitably get a starter it’s Ace or Bust, and DeGrom is both way to expensive and has too many health issues
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