What Will the Twins Front Office's Trade Deadline Strategy Look Like?

[weitz41]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

No one is trading for Maeda coming off of TJ surgery. Polanco has shown that he’s a big part of the offense and his bat is needed. Kepler is clearly the most likely to be traded to a team that needs a lefty bat, but he won’t bring much. Rather than trading more prospects for BP help give someone like Blayne Enlow a shot. Unless the offense starts to click this isn’t a team that can make a deep playoff run so don’t keep trading top prospects just to lose in the first round of the playoffs. . 

I'm not saying those are ones that they should make. Just examples or possibilities. Other than parting with Kepler and Pagan for maybe a BP arm and a lottery ticket I'd stand pat. 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not a buyer this year. They have enough to win the central and a series against the 6th seed.

I would try to win the central while surviving the growing pains of young players. I wouldn’t wait to find a trade partner for Kepler or Pagán. I don’t believe they have had a significant offer for either and I don’t believe that offer is coming. I would move on. The roster spot has more value than the C prospect they might hope to get.

I would not trade any prospect other than those that will be up for rule 5 and unlikely to be added to the roster. 

I think this is about where I'm at too.  They will wait on Kepler as long as possible though so I'm mentally preparing myself.  A DFA would shock the clubhouse and not be an entirely bad thing though.  Make a couple of smaller moves that maybe net a reliever but mainly open up spots for in house talent and hope to get hot.  The playoffs in the last several years are littered with teams that were mediocre half the year and clicked.  This roster has the talent to click.

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Thad Levine on the trade market

 

Levine basically says that in this clip as well.  Filling with in house talent is, wait for it, just like making a trade.  Also the mindset of trading fits rather than pure buyer/seller is interesting.  Similar to the Lopez/Arreaz deal trade need for need and keep trying to win.  It fits where this roster is at. 

I would expect them to trade some of the extra outfield LH bats but I'm not so sure the names will be who we think are obvious.  I think Gallo is a dark horse to go as he will get a higher return than we may think with the QO attached.  Unfortunately I don't believe Kepler is a lock to go and have no earthly explanation for that.  Levine indicating that he wants to open things up for the youngsters gives me some hope though.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not a buyer this year. They have enough to win the central and a series against the 6th seed.

I would try to win the central while surviving the growing pains of young players. I wouldn’t wait to find a trade partner for Kepler or Pagán. I don’t believe they have had a significant offer for either and I don’t believe that offer is coming. I would move on. The roster spot has more value than the C prospect they might hope to get.

I would not trade any prospect other than those that will be up for rule 5 and unlikely to be added to the roster. 

I agree completely. This is the year to turn over the lineup and luckily we can do so while still having a real chance to win this very lousy division. Adding Kirilloff and Lewis as every day players and Ober as a regular in the rotation is a good first step. The next is to find a spot for Julien to lead off even when Polanco is back. It's also time to give Wallner some run, probably as a replacement for Kepler. I think Miranda will be back in July as a 1B/DH. On the pitching side, keep Varland in the rotation or try him as a late inning reliever when Maeda comes back. I would also try Headrick or Balazovic in the pen. Yes, that limits our options if we have a starter go down but I think it's a risk worth taking.  

Bottom line, this is a year to move up prospects, not trade them for short term vets. The only move I would make would be to trade guys at the A or A+ level for a decent reliever if we can do that. Otherwise, let's move some guys like Kepler, Pagan, or even Gallo, Solano, Farmer, or Larnach to create space. Play the guys we have on the way up.        

[Jeff K]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

I could see the Twins calling Walner up and giving him some opportunities soon.  He has earned it.  But I think the Twins are more likely to roll with what they have because they have multiple moving parts that can be potential difference makers.  Walner, Garlick in the OF.  Lewis is now the 3B and he is doing a great job offensively last I saw.  I think Correa is starting to get out of his early season slump.  But Kepler and Gallo need to step it up if they want to keep their jobs is my thought.,  Larnarch also deserves playing time.  I can see a scenario where the Twins aquire a hitter to play 1B or DH and move Killeroff to the OF and demote Larnarch or trade Kepler to improve the Offense.  but other than that I really dont see the Twins doing anything.  

I agree with Reptevia that the Twins will target bullpen arms.  

I can't fathom any team trading for Kepler.  Perhaps take a flier on him after he is released.  Launch Kepler...NOW!  I know, I'm shouting, sorry.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, chinmusic said:

I'm  guessing that was meant as a "pithy" comment.

But let's just say if Kepler needs to make any decisions, I would imagine

he'd be capable of deciding for himself what he wants to do, and where he wants to do it.

That is true for everyone, but in truth he is the best person to grow the sport in his home country.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think this is about where I'm at too.  They will wait on Kepler as long as possible though so I'm mentally preparing myself.  A DFA would shock the clubhouse and not be an entirely bad thing though.  Make a couple of smaller moves that maybe net a reliever but mainly open up spots for in house talent and hope to get hot.  The playoffs in the last several years are littered with teams that were mediocre half the year and clicked.  This roster has the talent to click.

Levine basically says that in this clip as well.  Filling with in house talent is, wait for it, just like making a trade.  Also the mindset of trading fits rather than pure buyer/seller is interesting.  Similar to the Lopez/Arreaz deal trade need for need and keep trying to win.  It fits where this roster is at. 

I would expect them to trade some of the extra outfield LH bats but I'm not so sure the names will be who we think are obvious.  I think Gallo is a dark horse to go as he will get a higher return than we may think with the QO attached.  Unfortunately I don't believe Kepler is a lock to go and have no earthly explanation for that.  Levine indicating that he wants to open things up for the youngsters gives me some hope though.

FYI, Gallo would not be eligible to receive a QO if he's traded. You have to be on the same team all year to qualify now. I agree he's a dark horse candidate, but the only way a QO plays into a Gallo trade is if the Twins feel they would place one on him they'd have a bench mark of how good of a return they'd need. It'd be all about whether they think he'll get $50 mil on the open market this offseason or not. If they think he will they'd set their asking price at a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a 1st round comp pick. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they'd be asking for a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a pick after the 2nd round. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they probably aren't looking at placing a QO on him unless they really want him back for around $20 mil next year. I'd say the chances he gets a QO are pretty small as of today, but a lot can change in the next month and a half before the deadline.

[PatPfund]

Another excellent Nelson post. Love the dream targets (and think they'll probably remain dreams, but fun ones.) The real need short term on offense is to add by subtraction, and give the in-house options some extended run (even... SHOCKINGLY.. the chance to see pitchers from both sides) to see if they are the solution. Some of those in-house options like Larnach and Wallner aren't actually that young any more, and you HAVE to know soon what you actually have. The sooner we know, the better chances of making a good move (or not make) at the deadline.

A couple deletions (Kepler and Garlick) are obvious (Kyle can stick as a depth piece in St Paul, but he should never have been called up in front of Wallner, and never should again; pretty sure Wallner can hit the crappy 80 OPS+ against LH that 'lefty-masher' Garlick has posted this year). The bullpen is another issue for another day (I'd love Pagan gone, but sadly I haven't exactly seen other pitchers pushing to make room the Wallner has done on the OF rotation).

I expect Max will be either a bag o' balls transaction (or a A level flyer). I've seen others proposing Polanco or Buxton as trade chips; nobody is trading for players who can't stay healthy unless you want to give them away. (And it isn't some goofy FO strategy to not play Buxton in the outfield; he isn't physically capable of it right now by all appearances. And by reports in The Athletic.)

[Vanimal46]

If the Twins are still hovering around .500 in mid July, I would be actively selling to rebuild the farm system. Over the next 30-45 days Falvey needs to find out if Sonny Gray will accept a short extension. If not, sell high on his career best season. He is by far the best trade chip to realistically move.

I would also explore trading away Gallo, Thielbar, Solano, and Polanco. I don’t believe Pagan, Kepler, or Maeda have trade value and more likely to be DFA candidates. 

[RpR]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

That is true for everyone, but in truth he is the best person to grow the sport in his home country.

Yeah, Keppler is striking out 10 times a game while every one else is batting .300 😏

[Jocko87]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, Gallo would not be eligible to receive a QO if he's traded. You have to be on the same team all year to qualify now. I agree he's a dark horse candidate, but the only way a QO plays into a Gallo trade is if the Twins feel they would place one on him they'd have a bench mark of how good of a return they'd need. It'd be all about whether they think he'll get $50 mil on the open market this offseason or not. If they think he will they'd set their asking price at a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a 1st round comp pick. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they'd be asking for a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a pick after the 2nd round. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they probably aren't looking at placing a QO on him unless they really want him back for around $20 mil next year. I'd say the chances he gets a QO are pretty small as of today, but a lot can change in the next month and a half before the deadline.

Pesky CBA.

[Danchat]

24 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If the Twins are still hovering around .500 in mid July, I would be actively selling to rebuild the farm system. Over the next 30-45 days Falvey needs to find out if Sonny Gray will accept a short extension. If not, sell high on his career best season. He is by far the best trade chip to realistically move.

I would also explore trading away Gallo, Thielbar, Solano, and Polanco. I don’t believe Pagan, Kepler, or Maeda have trade value and more likely to be DFA candidates. 

The problem, this isn't going to happen because the front office doesn't want to have a third straight losing season in a row. They pitched the idea of "sustainable competitiveness" and yet here we are in year 7 of the regime and we're not much better off than where we started. I don't know if the Pohlads are anywhere ready to be handing out pink slips, but Falvine is more likely to acquire a couple rentals or get a couple guys with control to at least win the division so they can buy some more time... despite the fact that the team will be totally buoyed by being in a horrifically bad division. 

[TWINS2023CHAMPS]

Buxton needs to Play CF!!!!

Michael A Taylor is a good depth player but if we say buxton is not going to play cf, then cf would be a place to upgrade. 

If it were up to me I would force buxton to play cf and kick the tires on getting goldschmidt to play DH/occasionally 1st base

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Thad Levine on the trade market

 

[Mike Sixel]

Guessing here, but they trade a few minor prospects for some RP. It's hard to see what more they could/would trade, assuming they continue to hover around .500 and with the players in the majors and AAA / AA. 

Me? Well, I'd do a lot of things right now, but it's not up to me, and you asked what I think they will do.....

[nicksaviking]

I don't think Ohtani is getting moved. It would take a ransom to get him, and I'd guess the Angels are going to push harder than any other team to retain him.

Soto is interesting and I'd love to have him, but unless San Diego's inevitable fire sale is happening this upcoming offseason, I'd guess they're going to give their 'all in' approach one last shot next year if they come up short again this year.

Goldschmidt and his position make the most sense as any new big bat that comes in, should come in at the expense of the tanking vets. Kirilloff taking a Kepler/Gallo OF spot would work for me. That no-trade clause may be an issue though. Players who go to St. Louis, tend to stay in St. Louis as long as it's their call.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, TWINS2023CHAMPS said:

Buxton needs to Play CF!!!!

Michael A Taylor is a good depth player but if we say buxton is not going to play cf, then cf would be a place to upgrade. 

If it were up to me I would force buxton to play cf and kick the tires on getting goldschmidt to play DH/occasionally 1st base

Would you "force Buxton to play CF" even if the medical staff is telling you his knee isn't right, and putting him out there likely leads to his season ending, and possible/probable problems for years to come?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Would you "force Buxton to play CF" even if the medical staff is telling you his knee isn't right, and putting him out there likely leads to his season ending, and possible/probable problems for years to come?

It really is amazing that anyone thinks he's healthy enough to play, but the FO just doesn't want him out there.....seriously amazing.

[Craig Arko]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It really is amazing that anyone thinks he's healthy enough to play, but the FO just doesn't want him out there.....seriously amazing.

It’s the ‘Correa as Svengali’ meme.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

If the Twins are still hovering around .500 in mid July, I would be actively selling to rebuild the farm system. Over the next 30-45 days Falvey needs to find out if Sonny Gray will accept a short extension. If not, sell high on his career best season. He is by far the best trade chip to realistically move.

I would also explore trading away Gallo, Thielbar, Solano, and Polanco. I don’t believe Pagan, Kepler, or Maeda have trade value and more likely to be DFA candidates. 

I think playoff revenue could influence what they do.  I agree with those you listed including Gray but I think they might hold onto Gray and extend a qualifying offer.   This helps them get to the playoffs and gives them a shot at signing Gray to a 2-3 year deal.  Now, if they get the right haul, I am totally with you on moving him.

Kepler is the one they really need to move to give Wallner and Larnach a shot.  They won't get much but I think they will find a partner if he hits slightly above league average. 

Would they trade both Gallo and Kepler.  I could see Gallo bring a pretty decent return.

IDK if they will let Polanco go.  It would be an entirely different story if Julien was not so rough at 2B.  I could get behind if the return is right because there is a decent chance Miranda ends up back at 3B and they could move Lewis / Julien to 2B.  Lee could be a year or more out but his presence in the not-too-distant future also makes trading Polanco  more palatable.  Severino could be in the mix as well. 

We also could have one heck of a versatile bench in the near future.   Farmer / Gordon / Castro and hopefully Martin would allow the Twins to be more aggressive in making changes.

[David Maro]

This is a less than 500 team,so why are we talking trades for this position or BP arm. If you look at the July schedule you will see it only gets tougher. You don't have 12-17 strike outs per game by one or two players,it is a team afford. Maybe they need to discard the vest and replace it with fine jar for charity for striking out. Adding Joey Strike Out to the roster this morning is only going to add to the strike outs.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

If the Twins are still hovering around .500 in mid July

They would probably be leading the division by 3-5 games.

[DJL44]

49 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Would they trade both Gallo and Kepler.  I could see Gallo bring a pretty decent return.

I doubt it, unless they get an outfielder in return. That would mean a whole lot of Kyle Garlick playing time between now and October.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, David Maro said:

This is a less than 500 team,so why are we talking trades for this position or BP arm. If you look at the July schedule you will see it only gets tougher. You don't have 12-17 strike outs per game by one or two players,it is a team afford. Maybe they need to discard the vest and replace it with fine jar for charity for striking out. Adding Joey Strike Out to the roster this morning is only going to add to the strike outs.

The Twins actually have the easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball according to some metrics. If you just go by winning percentage of opponents they have the 3rd easiest schedule left. Their remaining opponents have a combined .479 winning percentage so far this year. The argument that it only gets tougher is factually incorrect. Not even July is harder. They have 12 games against teams well under .500 in July. That's half their games in July against teams way under .500.

[Vanimal46]

53 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think playoff revenue could influence what they do.  I agree with those you listed including Gray but I think they might hold onto Gray and extend a qualifying offer.   This helps them get to the playoffs and gives them a shot at signing Gray to a 2-3 year deal.  Now, if they get the right haul, I am totally with you on moving him.

Kepler is the one they really need to move to give Wallner and Larnach a shot.  They won't get much but I think they will find a partner if he hits slightly above league average. 

Would they trade bot Gallo and Kepler.  I could see Gallo bring a pretty decent return.

IDK if they will let Polanco go.  It would be an entirely different story if Julien was not so rough at 2B.  I could get behind if the return is right because there is a decent chance Miranda ends up back at 3B and they could move Lewis / Julien to 2B.  Lee could be a year or more out but his presence in the not-too-distant future also makes trading Polanco  more palatable.  Severino could be in the mix as well. 

We also could have one heck of a versatile bench in the near future.   Farmer / Gordon / Castro and hopefully Martin would allow the Twins to be more aggressive in making changes.

That is a good point about the playoff revenue. If Diamond Sports doesn’t pay the TV contract this year, they may need to make short term decisions to capture the lost revenue. 

I agree on your thinking they will trade one of Kepler or Gallo, not both. We could get a solid return on Gallo if he heats up over the next 45 days. 

Polanco is the one on that list I have a difficult time parting with. I’d explore the option but likely hold on to him. From the 10,000 ft overview he appears to be one of the only clubhouse leaders on roster. 

[Vanimal46]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They would probably be leading the division by 3-5 games.

Yeah, I don’t care how we stack up in the AL Central. I would go ahead with selling, and if we win the division with 83 wins that’s a bonus. The Twins don’t stack up well against the projected playoff teams. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, TWINS2023CHAMPS said:

Buxton needs to Play CF!!!!

Michael A Taylor is a good depth player but if we say buxton is not going to play cf, then cf would be a place to upgrade. 

If it were up to me I would force buxton to play cf and kick the tires on getting goldschmidt to play DH/occasionally 1st base

Yup, it’s time for Buxton to go play center field, and then maybe Taylor is a trade piece.

At one point they were going to ramp up Buxton gradually. I don’t know where they are with that. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Yup, it’s time for Buxton to go play center field, and then maybe Taylor is a trade piece.

At one point they were going to ramp up Buxton gradually. I don’t know where they are with that. 

I'm sure they're all in the conference room at Target Field asking Correa if it's ok right now...

[David Maro]

When has the Twins played well on the West Coast,play 4 in Seattle and 3 in Oakland. We have 3 against Atlanta the end of June and 7 against Baltimore in July. I know we do have Chicago and Kansas City,but always seem be close games. Next week 4 with Boston,you can throw all kind of numbers out,I look at how they play some teams.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm sure they're all in the conference room at Target Field asking Correa if it's ok right now...

As soon as Buxton’s ribs are feeling better, yeah, I think he needs to start ramping up for center field.

This is like the most popular and least controversial Twins take ever. 

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

As soon as Buxton’s ribs are feeling better, yeah, I think he needs to start ramping up for center field.

This is like the most popular and least controversial Twins take ever. 

I wasn't even commenting on that, but if his knee is why he isn't playing CF I'm not sure what his ribs have to do with the situation. I was just poking fun at your assertion that Carlos Correa is the one making the decision on where Byron Buxton plays.