What Will the Twins Front Office's Trade Deadline Strategy Look Like?

[Nashvilletwin]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

you hadn't noticed, AK and Julien and Lswis are starting to lead this team.  Jeffers has really improved this season. And again, Larnach has out produced Kepler. What might Wallner do?

Exactly.  Move the “one year rentals” and/or the “certainly won’t be here next year” vets.  Give the ABs and innings to our new young core who are producing as much, if not more. They deserve the playing time and need to be shown the confidence from the FO/manager. Let’s see what we have while investing in the future.

[lukeduke1980]

The offensive woes remind me of 2006 where the team rebounded by replacing the corpses of Tony Batista and Juan Castro with Bartlett and Punto.   Replace Vazquez and Kepler with Jeffers and Wallner, and see if if there's any spark.  Ideally then Miranda comes up to DH, maybe try Buxton in left field as his next step.

[wabene]

43 minutes ago, bighat said:

They should sell because this is a bad team, folks. It's time to stop kidding yourselves. 

No jokes, but is this a reasoned opinion? They are at 33-33. They are in first place in a bad division. Their record against teams that currently have a winning record is 17-20. The Twins have just completed the toughest part of their schedule, the part that at the beginning of the year was said would tell us much about this team. What do we know? We have a very good rotation. We have a middle of the road bullpen. The lineup is slightly below average by results so far.

From here on out the Twins have, by clear margins, the easiest remaining schedule in MLB. At the beginning of the season most would've taken a 500 record at this point. They are in the driver's seat. At this point based on results the best description of this team compared to the league, not a fan's expectations, is mediocre.

This team has some exciting young talent Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien, Wallner and maybe even Miranda and Larnach who along with the 2 highly paid stars Buxton and Correa, they could turn this thing around. They will not be selling. I would not buy either with the exception of a reliever. If the Twins are going to be successful it will be because the starters held up, the pen was tweaked enough and most importantly, the lineup turns it around. It could happen and it's why I will be watching the second two thirds of the season. 

[bighat]

3 minutes ago, wabene said:

No jokes, but is this a reasoned opinion? They are at 33-33. They are in first place in a bad division. Their record against teams that currently have a winning record is 17-20. The Twins have just completed the toughest part of their schedule, the part that at the beginning of the year was said would tell us much about this team. What do we know? We have a very good rotation. We have a middle of the road bullpen. The lineup is slightly below average by results so far.

From here on out the Twins have, by clear margins, the easiest remaining schedule in MLB. At the beginning of the season most would've taken a 500 record at this point. They are in the driver's seat. At this point based on results the best description of this team compared to the league, not a fan's expectations, is mediocre.

This team has some exciting young talent Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien, Wallner and maybe even Miranda and Larnach who along with the 2 highly paid stars Buxton and Correa, they could turn this thing around. They will not be selling. I would not buy either with the exception of a reliever. If the Twins are going to be successful it will be because the starters held up, the pen was tweaked enough and most importantly, the lineup turns it around. It could happen and it's why I will be watching the second two thirds of the season. 

I liked your comment because I respect you take and you make some great points. 

That said, having continuously watched this team struggle to score a measly 1 or 2 runs for weeklong stretches, seeing them lead the league in strikeouts and being incredibly incompetent with the bases loaded and RISP, having no veteran leadership, an injury-prone lineup and a handful of untrustworthy bullpen arms, I just can't join in the optimism. 

I hope you're right and I'm wrong! 

[Chris Spencer]

I would start with Buxton, he either plays in the field or can go. Gallo adds as much value at DH as Buxton. Cut bait with Kepler and Pagon. Add to the bullpen only and Give Wallner and Julian a chance. Taylor is a nice backup type option but doesn't help the offense much. I would say that Center and DH are the weakest spots in the lineup. I would not be giving Buxton a pass here. He is flailing away at pitches like a little leaguer. 

[rv78]

The last thing I want to see this FO do is trade away more prospects for worthless veterans. Last seasons deadline acquisitions and how it "helped" the team down the stretch prove they have no sense of what it takes to actually make the team better. Also everyone is pretty much on-board with the theory that deadline acquisitions are more expensive than at any other time. That's reason number 2 for NOT doing it. The main problem I see with this team is that this FO has invested in 6 veterans that are not worth their weight in feathers. Vazquez, Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Gallo and Polanco are the problem. Taylor and his $4.5m contract has been decent enough as a backup CF, problem is, he's become the fulltime CF. Solano, Farmer, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, Wallner have all hit better than the 6 veterans I listed above with the exception of Polanco, who can't get healthy enough to stay on the field. As for Larnach, I would not throw him away at this point. He's still young and has not been healthy for long stretches either. He would get a chance to play over Kepler any day on my team. And why is Garlick and his special right-handed bat any better than Wallner and his lefty bat at this point? There comes a time when you have to put the blame where it belongs, and playing these veterans that are NOT productive verses the guys that are falls directly on the FO and the Manager. A rebuild would not be as disastrous as some might believe. Getting rid of the dead wood in the 5 or 6 veterans that can't hit the broad side of a barn for some young, up and coming talent, would be the best thing to happen to this team for 2024 and beyond. This current team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs this year, if they even get there. So let's turn this team into something better, and the sooner that happens, the better. But for that to happen, the FO, the Manager and the Coaches all have to go along with those worthless veterans they think so highly of.

[chinmusic]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Max should be in Germany promoting baseball. 

I'm  guessing that was meant as a "pithy" comment.

But let's just say if Kepler needs to make any decisions, I would imagine

he'd be capable of deciding for himself what he wants to do, and where he wants to do it.

[jorgenswest]

I am not a buyer this year. They have enough to win the central and a series against the 6th seed.

I would try to win the central while surviving the growing pains of young players. I wouldn’t wait to find a trade partner for Kepler or Pagán. I don’t believe they have had a significant offer for either and I don’t believe that offer is coming. I would move on. The roster spot has more value than the C prospect they might hope to get.

I would not trade any prospect other than those that will be up for rule 5 and unlikely to be added to the roster. 

[wabene]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not a buyer this year. They have enough to win the central and a series against the 6th seed.

I would try to win the central while surviving the growing pains of young players. I wouldn’t wait to find a trade partner for Kepler or Pagán. I don’t believe they have had a significant offer for either and I don’t believe that offer is coming. I would move on. The roster spot has more value than the C prospect they might hope to get.

I would not trade any prospect other than those that will be up for rule 5 and unlikely to be added to the roster. 

This is where I stand. If you can get some bullpen help while also managing your 40, that's the outcome I'm looking for. Yes Pagan and Kepler should be removed from the equation which I think would be a good message to the team. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

Chapman from KC would be a great get - but he gets more expensive the closer the deadline gets.    KC is in a major rebuild and maybe a couple of low level prospects might do the trick - waiting until the end of July and the talent required to get him will be much higher

If that were true he would be traded already. His cost gets lower every passing day.

[weitz41]

If anything, I'd expect a little buy and sell. Something like Polanco to the Mariners for a BP arm with years of control and a prospect or two that are in the team's top 20-30 range. Kepler for a BP arm that's having a so-so year. Maybe something like Larnach and/or Meada for an OF like the Nats Lane Thomas maybe one the Cardinal's young players or BP arms. There are possibilities. Just don't think any of the big names will happen and most of the improvement will have to come from player already on the roster.

[wsnydes]

12 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not a buyer this year. They have enough to win the central and a series against the 6th seed.

I would try to win the central while surviving the growing pains of young players. I wouldn’t wait to find a trade partner for Kepler or Pagán. I don’t believe they have had a significant offer for either and I don’t believe that offer is coming. I would move on. The roster spot has more value than the C prospect they might hope to get.

I would not trade any prospect other than those that will be up for rule 5 and unlikely to be added to the roster. 

I'm kind of sitting here too.  I think they can tweak the bullpen enough with in house options that they could improve there without a deal.  I'm not so convinced with the bats though.  They've shown signs, but not consistently enough for me to buy in.  But they could have enough.

I'm also not convinced they could win a series against the 6th seed.  Depends on whether they're peaking or valleying at the time.

All of that said, depending on the deal, I may not mind seeing them buy.  But it's completely deal dependent.  And I do not want them to sell.  The names listed in the article are far too expensive for a team that's got more than one hole to fill in order to truly be a competitor.  

[John Belinski]

If some of the starting pitchers return to pitch it appears we will have too many starters so a win win trade for a hitter would help the Twins. It appears we have 2 or 3 starting pitchers that could return to help Twins plus some rookies that could help. The Twins need some hitting help to score more runs since even the best starting pitcher gives up about 3 runs per game. The Twins have been just one hit away from winning numerous games.

[jorgenswest]

Though I would not be a buyer I would consider trades where they buy low on struggling player hoping a change will turn things around.

There are several relievers this year sitting with ERAs above 5 (some cases well above) that have recently been useful members of a bullpen. Some of them will return to effectiveness in the second half. The Twins need to find that reliever on a buy low. Maybe they find a trade partner hoping to find that in Pagán or maybe they trade a prospect that they would have risked losing to rule 5.

They might consider a trade of a prospect for prospect. Seth suggested Jo Adell in January and stringer bell recently suggested someone like Larnach might be a fit. They need to identify that prospect that can best fit a need now and in the future.
 

 

[MABB1959]

11 hours ago, blindeke said:

Spot on. Can we trade for a better hitting coach?

I wouldn't go there yet.  The Twins MO is to replace the other coaches and that seems to have never worked.  I would go higher and let Rocco go. He calls the game right?  Tells the hitter when to swing and when to not?  I am not 100% sure but letting Rocco go could force a culture change.  IMO they need a coach who has a clear understating of statistics but does not call the game solely based on them.

[Otaknam]

The offense can’t continue to hit .150 w the bases loaded or w runners in scoring position, so I expect much better production there. Correa will start hitting and if Buxton ever gets healthy the offense should see a jump in production. So I don’t see a trade for another righty bat unless they trade Larnach. The bullpen is where they need an arm or two. Got to dump dumpster fire Pagan.

[jorgenswest]

I think I should have phrased it that I am not a buyer yet. If they put up the best record in the AL over the next 6 weeks I am ready to shift gears.  I wrote that before Toronto. There are 44 games through July 30 and the schedule is not a difficult one. I would want to see 29 wins. They have 2 against Toronto so go 27-14 and I am a buyer.

Meanwhile look for a buy low reliever or two and move on from a few veterans.

[Otaknam]

19 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

If anything, I'd expect a little buy and sell. Something like Polanco to the Mariners for a BP arm with years of control and a prospect or two that are in the team's top 20-30 range. Kepler for a BP arm that's having a so-so year. Maybe something like Larnach and/or Meada for an OF like the Nats Lane Thomas maybe one the Cardinal's young players or BP arms. There are possibilities. Just don't think any of the big names will happen and most of the improvement will have to come from player already on the roster.

No one is trading for Maeda coming off of TJ surgery. Polanco has shown that he’s a big part of the offense and his bat is needed. Kepler is clearly the most likely to be traded to a team that needs a lefty bat, but he won’t bring much. Rather than trading more prospects for BP help give someone like Blayne Enlow a shot. Unless the offense starts to click this isn’t a team that can make a deep playoff run so don’t keep trading top prospects just to lose in the first round of the playoffs. . 

[EGFTShaw]

11 hours ago, blindeke said:

Spot on. Can we trade for a better hitting coach?

I wondered, over the past few years, about what the hitting coach brings to the table.

Yet this year Jeffers has improved.

The bigger names have all dipped, C4, BB, etc...

But like Sano, we can't put Kepler's hitting woes on the hitting coach.

I want our Bomba Squad hitting coach back...but he has moved up the managing chain and there is no way that is happening.

So my verdict on this is that the onus lies on the hitters to get there $h1t together AND the hitting coach to figure out how to get them there

[Beast]

9 hours ago, wabene said:

Well let's see, starting with one of their first trades, Jake Odorizzi for Jermaine Palacios, who they got back later for free, through Johan Duran for a couple of months of Escobar on through two years of the quality MLB starting pitching from Sonny Gray and a possible compensation pick via the qualifying offer which would be essentially the equivalent pick they gave up to get him. Fleeced? Maybe not every time, eh? 

Since they’ve take over about 7-8 years ago, we’re supposed to heap praise on them for making those 3 trades, but botching about a dozen?  They’ve traded for more injured or useless pitchers that they’ve gotten nothing out of alone (Mahle, Paddack, Dyson, Shaun Anderson) than trades that have worked out.

Escobar has been an All Star since he left here while being a primary 3B - a position of need for us since the trade.  He’s also played games at 2B and SS.  He’s accumulated nearly 10 oWAR over that time.  He’s put up OPS+ numbers of 102, 111, 109, 107, 115, and 107 at his various stops along the way (some of those are partial years).  He did have a very rough 2020 with an injury and got off to a slow start this year, otherwise has been a well above average hitter for a number of years now.  Other than 2020, he consistently available and playing 140+ games (something nobody else on this roster can do).  He’s a pretty darn good player.  Jhoan Duran is freaking awesome, but he’s a reliever we use twice per week on a team that can’t score a run.  There’s only so much value there.

We can’t say the Sonny Gray trade is a success.  He’s in his mid 30s.  He’s been largely good here,  but Chase Petty has a career 3.06 ERA with 125 Ks/37 BB in 123 innings, primarily in low/high A as a 19 year old.  This year, he’s started 5 games and allowed 1 earned run with more than a K per inning and about 2 walks per 9.  That could turn out to be an awful trade.  He might be our top pitching prospect right now with a bullet.

The Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades are unmitigated disasters.  Have you seen what Steer and CES are doing right now?  CES is slashing .362/.427/.735 at AAA.  Spencer Steer has a 118 OPS+ in the majors.  Buxton and Correa, our superstars, have a 113 and 97 OPS+.  ESPN is doing front page features about Cano being the best reliever in baseball.

How about Lamonte Wade Jr.?  That 139 OPS+ would sure be nice in this lineup.  We traded him for a middle reliever who gave up 9 runs over 8 innings before being DFA’d.

There is absolutely no question these guys have done extremely poorly on the trade market.  They’ve had a couple nice trades (Ryan being the best), but overall they have gotten fleeced, repeatedly. There is not even a debate that can be had there.  The amount of talent they’ve given away that is thriving vastly outweighs what they’ve gotten in return.  It’s not even close.  It’s OK to say that.  It doesn’t make you less of a fan or more of a ball guy. 

 

[jorgenswest]

Thad Levine on the trade market

 

[EGFTShaw]

You know what I like about most of these trade comments...

LOL

Not much.  Too short sighted.

That said, if the hitters were average in most of the key situations, the Twins would be running away in the Central.

We, Twins Daily, collectively bitched about the the pitching staff and yet the starting pitching is at the top of the majors.

We also complained about the catcher's defense, we are at the top in that category too.

We are being bit by the injury bug again as well.

it's a LONG season, trade deadline is way off still.

But, like someone else said, I am not trading our prospects for some veteran rentals that are at the edge of uncertainty.

I do like the idea of Soto and Ohtani ONLY because it is something the Twins would NEVER ever consider.  But I am not trading all of our prospects for either player who is absolutely leaving during FA.

My prediction.  By July 4th the Twins will be leading the division by 6-8 games.


 

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

I wondered, over the past few years, about what the hitting coach brings to the table.

Yet this year Jeffers has improved.

The bigger names have all dipped, C4, BB, etc...

But like Sano, we can't put Kepler's hitting woes on the hitting coach.

I want our Bomba Squad hitting coach back...but he has moved up the managing chain and there is no way that is happening.

So my verdict on this is that the onus lies on the hitters to get there $h1t together AND the hitting coach to figure out how to get them there

Rowson has moved back down the managing chain. He's one of the hitting coaches in Detroit right now. The team with, by far, the fewest runs scored in baseball.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, wabene said:

Well let's see, starting with one of their first trades, Jake Odorizzi for Jermaine Palacios, who they got back later for free, through Johan Duran for a couple of months of Escobar on through two years of the quality MLB starting pitching from Sonny Gray and a possible compensation pick via the qualifying offer which would be essentially the equivalent pick they gave up to get him. Fleeced? Maybe not every time, eh? 

There you go being objective again.  Perhaps you are unfamiliar with the tactic of only looking at the instances that support a narrative.  Just to expand on where you went with this ... The biggest failures of this team to this point in the season are Correa and Buxton.  Both signings were very popular here.  One could even say that most posters here were quite insistent the front office sign these players.  Their additions Gallo / MAT / Solano / Farmer and Stewart have all been quite good.  The best performing player ( Kirilloff) was written off by the majority here and many called for them to sign a replacement.  The one decision we as a group had right was Pagan.  Then again, posters here would have supported resigning Fulmer and dumping Pagan.  Fulmer has been worse.  

[JakeBru3]

11 hours ago, dberthia said:

With their track record of being fleeced in trades (Joe Ryan is a rare exception), they're better off not pulling the trigger on anything except dumping Pagan and Kepler. At least those moves would be addition via subtraction.

Gray? Maeda? Duran? 

[chpettit19]

I'm going to start by saying I don't understand why people think the As would want Larnach for Ruiz. Ruiz is younger, and has more team control, than Larnach. Why would the As be interested in trading him for Larnach? Why would they want to trade him at all when they have him under control for 6 more years? I assume they plan to be good within the next 6 years. If he's so good why would they be trading him?

Also going to add that Buxton has a full no trade clause. That doesn't mean he wouldn't waive it, but he fought to stay here, and I'd be awfully surprised if he waived the clause he fought to have added before he'd sign so early in the deal. The Twins aren't trading Buxton.

As for the strategy at the deadline, I'm guessing it's very limited, and mostly just looking for a pen arm or 2. I think they're stuck in "we need depth!" mode right now, and it's got them afraid to move on from Kepler (especially when they also seem to think he has value). If I were them I'd start moving on from some of the veterans, and just let the kids play. But I don't expect them to move Gallo or Solano, unless Solano stops hitting, but then he'd be a DFA, not trade. I think they really want to trade Kepler so he'll be here until the deadline. Same with Pagan, unfortunately. 

This team doesn't really have many impressive trade chips anyways. Lee could headline a deal if you're buying, but behind him it's still hard to build a package necessary for a star. I don't think they're targeting any stars anyways, though. I love Polanco, and I want him back healthy, but his value is dropping by the IL trip. If he were valuable enough to bring back a big return we shouldn't be asking for him to be traded. The Twins are attempting to be in win now mode, and if he's healthy he's one of their top 5 players. Teams trying to win now don't trade those guys very often. Unless we're getting a player of the same talent level at a different position that trade doesn't help this team.

[TwinsDr2021]

33 minutes ago, Beast said:

Since they’ve take over about 7-8 years ago, we’re supposed to heap praise on them for making those 3 trades, but botching about a dozen?  They’ve traded for more injured or useless pitchers that they’ve gotten nothing out of alone (Mahle, Paddack, Dyson, Shaun Anderson) than trades that have worked out.

Escobar has been an All Star since he left here while being a primary 3B - a position of need for us since the trade.  He’s also played games at 2B and SS.  He’s accumulated nearly 10 oWAR over that time.  He’s put up OPS+ numbers of 102, 111, 109, 107, 115, and 107 at his various stops along the way (some of those are partial years).  He did have a very rough 2020 with an injury and got off to a slow start this year, otherwise has been a well above average hitter for a number of years now.  Other than 2020, he consistently available and playing 140+ games (something nobody else on this roster can do).  He’s a pretty darn good player.  Jhoan Duran is freaking awesome, but he’s a reliever we use twice per week on a team that can’t score a run.  There’s only so much value there.

We can’t say the Sonny Gray trade is a success.  He’s in his mid 30s.  He’s been largely good here,  but Chase Petty has a career 3.06 ERA with 125 Ks/37 BB in 123 innings, primarily in low/high A as a 19 year old.  This year, he’s started 5 games and allowed 1 earned run with more than a K per inning and about 2 walks per 9.  That could turn out to be an awful trade.  He might be our top pitching prospect right now with a bullet.

The Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades are unmitigated disasters.  Have you seen what Steer and CES are doing right now?  CES is slashing .362/.427/.735 at AAA.  Spencer Steer has a 118 OPS+ in the majors.  Buxton and Correa, our superstars, have a 113 and 97 OPS+.  ESPN is doing front page features about Cano being the best reliever in baseball.

How about Lamonte Wade Jr.?  That 139 OPS+ would sure be nice in this lineup.  We traded him for a middle reliever who gave up 9 runs over 8 innings before being DFA’d.

There is absolutely no question these guys have done extremely poorly on the trade market.  They’ve had a couple nice trades (Ryan being the best), but overall they have gotten fleeced, repeatedly. There is not even a debate that can be had there.  The amount of talent they’ve given away that is thriving vastly outweighs what they’ve gotten in return.  It’s not even close.  It’s OK to say that.  It doesn’t make you less of a fan or more of a ball guy. 

 

You left out the Maeda trade, which I believe was a win (not a huge win, but a win), Dozier trade again win, Pressly trade which at this point is a huge failure. Alcala might turn that around but as of now.

But as trades go for this FO I say they are in the positive, Ryan, Odo IMO outweigh the Pressly/Mahle trade, and the rest slightly favor the Twins.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

That said, having continuously watched this team struggle to score a measly 1 or 2 runs for weeklong stretches, seeing them lead the league in strikeouts and being incredibly incompetent with the bases loaded and RISP, having no veteran leadership, an injury-prone lineup and a handful of untrustworthy bullpen arms, I just can't join in the optimism. 

Yeah, there's just something about the reality of this team that tends to keeps the optimism in check.

They've given away how many games at this point? Cleveland has some of the best talent waiting in the wings. They are also led by a seasoned manager who can steady the ship and bring out the best in young players.

The Twins? No and no. Like bighat, happy to be wrong, but doubt I will be.

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, Beast said:

There is absolutely no question these guys have done extremely poorly on the trade market.  They’ve had a couple nice trades (Ryan being the best), but overall they have gotten fleeced, repeatedly. 

In general they've done better selling at the deadline than they have buying at the deadline. Part of that is inherent to deadline deal trades. The buyer is going to pay significantly above 'retail' prices at the end of July.

Trades in the offseason are generally where you'll see even value. Nobody brings up the Josh Donaldson deal where the Twins absolutely destroyed the Yankees. Trading away oft-injured Mitch Garver looks like a win and it set up the Donaldson deal. The Arraez trade will be won or lost based on whether Salas and Chourio develop. The Farmer and Taylor deals look good. I wouldn't say they've done "extremely poorly". I think they've won about as many trades as they have lost and several of the "lost" trades are due to injuries.

I'd give this front office a C grade for trades. My bigger issue is they don't acquire enough international free agent pitching talent. They have to be one of the worst organizations for identifying, signing and developing Latin pitchers.

[JakeBru3]

2 hours ago, Chris Spencer said:

I would start with Buxton, he either plays in the field or can go. Gallo adds as much value at DH as Buxton. Cut bait with Kepler and Pagon. Add to the bullpen only and Give Wallner and Julian a chance. Taylor is a nice backup type option but doesn't help the offense much. I would say that Center and DH are the weakest spots in the lineup. I would not be giving Buxton a pass here. He is flailing away at pitches like a little leaguer. 

Agree with most of this but Michael Taylor has an OBP of .276 while the average isn't great at .231 but does have 9hr, 21 rbi and 11 stolen bases. Defense is his calling card and he's been great there so adding the 9hr and 21 rb with the SB threat If anything the platoon with him in CF should be cut down and just let him be your everyday CF.

I'd move Buxton to one of the corner OF spots and take the training wheels off of him .He isn't hitting well enough to warrant a DH spot. If he ends up on the IL because he was asked to play the OF than so be it. Other option which i probably prefer based on this article would be to include him a deal for Soto. Maybe costs less prospect capital and you upgrade big time and get off of the Buxton contract and use that money your going to need to throw at Soto to resign.