Beast

We’d see a team from Minnesota in the World Series sooner with a relocation and new team under expansion 20 years from now (assuming the spiraling MLB is even a thing anymore). The current franchise, with its gross mismanagement of nearly everything, likely won’t win another playoff series in the rest of our lifetimes. Go ahead and relocate. I’m following the progress of a couple of prospects and have some interest in how Keaschall is doing, but they’d have to pay me more than my daily salary with free beer to sit at Target field and watch 9 innings right now.

I called this when they first announced they were exploring a sale. They were never going to sell.

This analysis sounds a little more optimistic on some of his tools than I’ve seen elsewhere. Ive seen that he’s a “hit tool” first guy, without much mention of his physicality/power potential. Ive also haven’t seen his arm as a plus, more along the lines of average. Now, I haven’t spent a ton of time scouring scouting reports. But, I’m certainly more optimistic about him after reading this more comprehensive piece. Maybe a little more upside there than I initially thought? Either way I was fine with the trade and think more “selling” is the proper course (only because I know they won’t spend the money needed to take this roster to another level).

I could’ve used a higher upside prospect. But, hey, they did something. I don’t know how people can be upset about a sell off. This roster was/is going nowhere. It’s the only path, since we all know they couldn’t add anymore payroll. I have no interest in their typical risk averse half-measures. I’ll be upset if they stop here.

I would’ve agreed with you in the recent past. But, if they’ve hit their budget ceiling and won’t supplement the roster externally until the Correa and Lopez contracts run their course, they need to roll the dice on a rebuild, IMO. The current roster is over cooked, and I don’t see anyone in the farm system ready to step in and be a high end player next year. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, etc. might be good players 2-3 years from now, just in time for guys like Ryan to leave via free agency, and 2-3 years more age on Buxton and Correa. There aren’t any difference makers coming in the rotation likely longer than that (Hill, Soto, etc. - Preilipp and Rays seem destined for the bullpen). Sitting on this roster for another year or two most likely ends with a decade of mediocrity, at best.

It’s clear that they’re not going to invest enough going forward to make this current collection a competitive roster, unless there’s a new ownership group (maybe). Also, looking at the roster, it’s riddled with guys who are high injury risk at their “core” (Lewis, Buxton, Correa, Ober, Lopez). I’m sorry, but it’s over with this group. They can’t sit in the middle here. Especially with the Tigers popping up the way they have. I’m not interested in battling the Guardians and Royals for 2nd/3rd in the division, but outside of the Wild Card, for the next 2-3 years and still end up watching a guy like Ryan walk with nothing to show. They have to start the rebuild and maximize the value some assets. The only hope at being even remotely competitive (in terms of a Pennant/World Series, I don’t care about just making the playoffs to get easily bounced), is to absolutely load up the farm system while they have the chance. If they played this right, they could have an epic group of prospects. What could they possibly see that lands them at a conclusion to run it back? They’ve already killed fan morale, interest, and attendance. There’s nothing to hang onto here, except for their own jobs. There really is no choice here. I commend them for tepidly going for it for a couple years (the aggression with the Correa contract was a good shot, as was the Pablo trade, but not quite active enough at the deadline to really get there). But, they also have to have the stones to pull the plug. If we don’t trust that they make good trades and identify successful prospects, we have the wrong people in place to run a team that sets a tight budget. Likewise, if they’re making decisions that maximizes their own career vs. what is best for the franchise, we have the wrong people in place. Do the right thing. It pains me to say that. I didn’t want to go back to Rays, As, and Royals model of long drawn-out rebuilds for short fleeting pop-ups. But, they’ve boxed themselves into that corner by slashing the budget and not drafting particularly well (they more than cornered the market on replacement level college hitters).

To be frank, the roster just isn’t that good. Expecting a .900+ OPS out of Correa is just wreckless. He’s never done that. He performs adequately during the regular season offensively, but plays exceptionally during the playoffs. He started incredibly slow this year, but had been serviceable ever since. He could be better defensively, but that’s not really the discussion here. Anyone else people are expecting to be world beaters, like Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers, Lewis, France, etc. are just way out of whack with reality. These guys aren’t that good. Wallner goes on a month long tear every year, and is abysmal outside of that. That’s not changing. Larnach is just a league average hitting outfielder. That’s not changing. Lewis has seemingly never played two consecutive games healthy in his life. One short hit streak had everyone expecting him to be an elite level power hitter indefinitely. That wasn’t reality. When looking at this lineup from top to bottom, what did people really expect here? A player not living up to unrealistic expectations isn’t always an indictment on the player, but of the expectation itself. It was never realistic to think Lewis and Wallner were going to be the player we’ve seen in small samples. Chris Parmelee comes to mind. Great start to his career set the expectations way out of whack. That’s an extreme example but it’s valid. At the end of the day, who cares what the fans think. They’re not paid to evaluate players. If a front office is wrong consistently, that’s a problem. Their job is to analyze and predict, why don’t they ever catch any heat on this? Literally none. In a real baseball market, they’d be getting lambasted for running some of these guys out there regularly. We accept the excuses for their limitations, but rag on Royce Lewis for not hitting .320/.430/.700. The FO being immune from any an all responsibility/accountability is starting to be even more exhausting than the milquetoast performance of the team. Honestly, we’re going to roast guys like Ty France, but not the incompetence who signed him to be a key piece in the lineup? How is it that the FO never catches any heat for anything? They assembled this trash.

Why would anyone ever get the impression our pitching pipeline is even good, let alone “crown” it? The FO has been here for like 8 good years. 1 decent starter has come out of the development system (Ober, who isn’t looking good for a while this year). I’ll even grant Ryan, who was arguably developed much more by TB, for 2. Guys like Gibson and Berrios were the previous regime but may have overlapped with Falvy. Otherwise it’s been a lot of Odorizzi, Santana, Maeda, Pineda, Archer, Paddack, Hill, Bundy, etc. from the clearance bin. Sounds like this “elite pipeline” dream has always been based on a hope and Falvey’s Cleveland connections. There is absolutely nothing that sets this FO apart as a high end developer of starting pitching. All that said, I don’t feel confident enough to write it off completely. Maybe there’s bad luck involved. It’s very difficult to develop a high end starter, let alone string a number of them together like a Cleveland, TB, or the As over the last 10-20 years. I would say I feel very good about their ability to go find guys with good underlying stats and tweak things to get a little extra out of them. Which, given the volatility and unpredictability of young pitching prospects, I think is a more valuable skill. I don’t consider that “the pipeline.” To me, a “pipeline” would be the development system from the low minors and up. Whether they’re drafted or acquired as a prospect in the low minors (rookie to A ball). Pipeline implies a steady/continuous flow. I’m not sure we’re even getting spurts. Maybe a drip every few years.

With his track record, they wouldn’t get that much in return. They couldn’t even come close to replacing his recent production internally or externally. There is no reason to trade Paddack. Especially now that they’re back in the playoff discussion. Zero chance of that happening.

There are 6 other guys on the roster who have gotten fairly significant playing time that are hitting .200 or less. There are 2 players who have 10 or more ABs with an OPS over .750. As a team, the slash line is .213/.282/.338/.620. Two of the 3 guys hitting right are new to the organization (France and Bader), and haven’t been destroyed yet (give it some time). Correa has demonstrated sustained elite performance in the highest stakes baseball for his whole career prior to coming here. Maybe it’s not Correa that’s the problem? Anyone ever consider that? This organization is incompetent and a disgrace from top to bottom. Has been for decades now. I can’t put that on one player. It’s ridiculous to see the routine Twins’ fan knee jerk, “see, this is why free agent contracts are bad.” How well was it going here before the Correa contract? We literally set the record for playoff ineptitude across any professional sport on the entire planet. Let’s all get a regrip on the reality of this franchise. Coming back now with hindsight and blaming the litany of organizational woes on Correa’s contract is lazy, and false. I still applaud them for attempting to take a shot at winning something meaningful. But, they got scared and didn’t finish their shot, resulting in an air ball. The leadership structure, from ownership and FO, to management/coaching, is gangrenous and needs to be amputated. It doesn’t matter what players we have here.

People need to start getting fired. The team isn’t absent talent. There is something rotten in terms of culture/philosophy. Another masterclass on how not to run a business by the Pohlad clan. Sticking with a collection of folks who have done nothing but underachieve for far too long. Indecisive/unrealistic in terms of the sale of the team. Can’t watch the team on TV without some obscure, relatively expensive subscription service. Destroying fan morale last year before trying to sell the team (selling low but asking the high price). Stories about them up to their eye balls in debt, despite not having to pay for a state of the art stadium. It’s really a rare display of incompetence. One fleeting moment of quasi-success in a decade and they absolutely nose dive it into the ground with a mushroom cloud of crap. Honestly, the last 15 years is what the public financed a stadium for? 1 playoff participation ribbon (play-in series win, basically) to show? I don’t know how anyone can justify parting with a single red cent for this product is beyond me. It’s a disgrace.

Wallner is becoming a notorious ice-cold slow starter, to such an extent he’s yet to play a full season without getting demoted, and Baldelli bats him lead off in the first 2 games? Once he heats up in a couple months and starts smashing, he’ll drop him down to the bottom of the lineup. He’ll then move up to clean up in September after he’s cooled off. He’s also the guy you’d want at the plate most with runners on base Some of his lineup decisions are head scratching to me. Lineup construction isn’t the end of the world, but I’d love a media member to ask for him to justify it to hear his thought process.

I’ve said from the beginning that they aren’t selling the team. Similar to the Glen Taylor situation, any reason they can find to keep it while seemingly intentionally throwing up arbitrary road blocks. It’s a professional sports franchise. I don’t care where it is or what sport, if someone really want to find a buyer and get out, it’ll be there. Probing for a buyer at a price they know won’t be met isn’t an earnest attempt. What better way to attempt to drive some fan engagement and get in the media cycle (any engagement/press is good) after completely blowing the highest fan engagement/optimism in a decade off a playoff series victory? Make a splashy roster move? Shake up the coaching staff front office? We all know those weren’t options. Stage a search for an exciting new owner like Ishbia who would spend like a drunken sailor at a pub compared to the Pohlads would certainly get people talking. I might be proven wrong. But as they “work” through this process, the more I feel my initial gut reaction of “BS” seems accurate. It just makes no sense, if they have any real business acumen and long-term thinking/planning, to tank ticket sales and fan excitement, then try to sell the team. I don’t buy the “they need clean books, so they can’t sign any significant contracts” trope that’s been thrown around. You’re telling me a group of multi-billionaires clamoring to get into a professional sports franchise wouldn’t buy a team because they signed some mid-tier free agent deals? They’re more likely to pay your price if the team stinks? The sale price is certainly hurt much more by demonstrating zero fan engagement/excitement and bottomed out ticket sales.

“Clean books” benefits the seller more then the buyer in most cases. Easier to sell and can result in mor cash at the time of the sale. Investment in players is always construed negatively here. It’s not. Any potential buyer in their right mind knows the earning potential is greater with a good team in place than trying to build from the ground up. You don’t have to clean your books unless you’ve entered into bad contracts.

I can’t believe both of these teams made the World Series. Spending money is an awful strategy, I’ve learned here over the years. Joke is on both them for not modeling themselves after the Rays. They both may win the World Series multiple times over the next few years, but they might have to pay someone a premium who isn’t at the peak of their production at some point. Idiots.

Why do we hear about moneyball all the time as if it’s the preeminent recipe for success? It’s like nobody remembers the movie (and real life) ended with the As winning jack squat and eventually turning into the single most irrelevant team in any professional sport over nearly 3 decades. Same as many Twins fans grasping onto the Royals popping up for a couple years after 1,000 100 loss seasons and #1 draft picks as the template for success. Same as playing the Powerball as a retirement strategy. Sure, someone somewhere has allegedly accomplished this. But, far from advisable is an understatement. If Severino were any good, they’d have found a way to use him by now.

Now we should trade away a $3M bullpen arm for financial reasons? Good grief. Just shut this thing down. It’s radioactive from ownership all the way down to the media/fan base. Maybe you trade him to get ahead of his arm expiration date (which may already be here). But, finances entering the conversation is asinine.

I’ll take my chances vs. the status quo. What’s the worst that could happen, we don’t win a playoff series for 20 years? Im fairly confident a new owner wouldn’t buy it under the pretense of cutting costs further and burying the franchise. They’ll want to grow their investment. We’ll see, but I’m not getting my hopes up that they’ll actually sell. This is the most they’ve been talked about in the news since 1991. Maybe just another ploy. They may think they can win fans back by saying they only cut costs in preparation of a potential sale, but now are “all in” again. Damage control on their unbelievably idiotic PR strategy this past year. Attempts to bail water on a sinking ship.

Correa feels the same way, I’m sure. He could be playing for real baseball franchise right now for the same money, instead of the Savannah Bananas minus the dancing and fan engagement.

This team has won one play in series against a bad team in over two decades. There is no real winning window. Never has been, probably never will be. Trading one of the best postseason performers in baseball history, and far and away the team’s best player (offensively and defensively) wouldn’t extend this imaginary window. What could this team do with that money that would significantly improve this team? You’d basically swap him out for one good free agent starter and reliever, and have Brooks Lee play short? 3-4 mediocre role players (we already have 100 of them)? Sign Royce Lewis to an even worse contract? Getting and keeping Correa healthy is their only hope of being even a marginal playoff contender (just forget an ALCS or World Series). Does anyone have any confidence that they wouldn’t just load up on Logan Morrisons and Manuel Margots? There is no winning here without spending more money on legitimate players. Plain and simple. Good luck with the couple of fans that they haven’t run off yet if you bail on Correa now. The sad thing is, this year may have been the easiest path through the AL playoff bracket that we’ll ever see again in our lifetimes. They were getting career performances from nearly everybody for a large portion of the season. By cheaping out like cowards, they’ve already slammed the window shut. It was only cracked to vent the smoke from the ownership dumpster fire anyway.

Don’t worry, this place will be back to saying our infield is stacked so deep that we need to sit out of the free agent market and trade people away again in a matter of weeks.

It’s not really greed. The old adage “you have to spend money to make money,” is true. They’re in the midst of negotiating new TV deals and coming off peak fan excitement. The best thing they could’ve done to position the franchise for future financial success was to field a team capable of a deep playoff run (aka, ponying up some cash). The “right sizing” is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If they generated more fan excitement, they could afford more. If you’re unwilling to bite the bullet at some point to build a foundation for sustained success, your business plan is basically hoping to win the lottery. It’s not greed. It’s incompetence and a lack of vision. Its cowardice. If they want to make money with no risk, sell the team and go into banking.

This does not feel like a move made by the Pohlads or Falvey (directly). Not sure how that's the conclusion some are coming to. If they won't fire anybody else of note (except a few scapegoat assistants), why would they fire Thad? I think its clear. Thad was a name thrown around for GM in the not so distant past (real GM, not the assistant to Falvey). He's still relatively young. He can get a high level job in an organization that actually prioritizes winning, and potentially parlay that into something bigger. He saw the writing on the wall. This plane is in a death spiral. If he hangs on for a few more years, he may not be able to wash the stink off in the job market. I think they had an exit interview, and he said he's not going down with the ship, and unless they commit to investing in this thing he wants out. Smart move. I think the one guy on the inside willing to fight to bring in talent sufficient to win something meaningful just flipped the bird and walked out. The Carlos Correa signing is the last significant free agent contract we're seeing in some time. At the end of the day, any moves that are made are completely inconsequential until the Pohlads relinquish their ownership to someone competent, or go completely hands-off. That's not happening in our lifetime. Joe Pohlad isn't giving up his equity share and opportunity to LARP.

Lol, what?

It’s largely worked? In what way? They’ve done nothing but win a few regular season games in the worst division in baseball. Considering some of the talent they’ve had, what they’ve done is an abject failure. I wonder if they’ve been advised that no legit and FO/manager would want to come here and potentially derail their career working for an inept ownership group that doesn’t care about winning and can’t get out of their own way.