Beast

They have a reliever that gives up a lot of runs. 9 over his last 5 appearances. Encouraging strikeout numbers in previous years, though. Down this year. Just doesn’t get batters out. Rationalize that as an improvement all you want….still not likely going to get batters out and contribute to winning enough games to make the playoffs. Like clockwork, I see a headline right away this morning elsewhere, “Twins tried to trade for Kikuchi.” A high ranking individual in “belly of beast” say the Astros paid “quite a haul.” They gave up their #2 overall prospect, #5 and #19. I could be mistaken, but I can’t currently find any of them in MLB’s top 100. Not sure I’d consider that “quite the haul.” But, darn. Edged out by a hair again, just like every other trade deadline, and it just happened to be leaked to a mouthpiece. Shocking. It clearly set a bit of a tone in the clubhouse, after watching them get absolutely carved up by two fairly mediocre pitchers while getting out scored 17 runs to 2 in the last two games. After they probably lose today, I predict this team will be out of a playoff spot within the next couple of weeks, and will remain there, with series coming up against Cleveland, KC, Tex, San Diego, St. Louis, Atlanta, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and KC. 5 of those series (including 2 4 gamers) on the road, after the upcoming series against the Chicago teams. That’s not an easy schedule.

No, they had nothing to do with the deadline inaction. They’re one of the major reasons they’re currently occupying a playoff spot (potentially temporarily, as we saw everyone around them get better). If it weren’t for them pitching as well as they did, they’d already be on the outside looking in. If someone brought that up in a meeting as a reason to not add to the bullpen, or fill the rotation spot behind them that would certainly get used in a playoff series (if they make the playoffs), they’re incompetent and should be fired. There was only one reason they sat on their hands. And ownership should be called out on it and ridiculed at every turn.

What an lame trade. It might make the bullpen worse. They’ll be reluctant to cut their losses and run him out there as many times as they can. They just had to do something so they could say they tried. Patronizing the fans. Now comes the obligatory annual trope through LaVelle E Pravda “we were in on a whole bunch of really good players but got edged out by a hair.” The Pohlads could teach a graduate level business course on tanking a brand. Have them explain their philosophy and tell the kids to do the opposite.

You would think watching the pitching staff get absolutely throttled last night would’ve driven home the message. Guess not. Nobody will like this, but stick a fork in this team. They needed career first halves out of 3/4 of the lineup, including Correa, and Ryan, Ober, SWR, and some of the relievers to stay within 5.5 games of the division and barely hang onto a wild card spot. The regression is coming and this team very well could be on the outside looking in. What an epic disappointment and garbage ownership group (bUt DoNt SaY tHeYrE cHeAp). They sold this rebuild cycle since drafting Royce, and they yank the rug out just when it gets rolling. Absolute joke.

There is always a prevailing fear amongst Twins fans in giving up prospects. My thoughts: 1) No risk, no rewards. Every championship team is aggressive at the deadline. You have to be, unless you already have a rock solid rotation in place with an elite ace-level headliner. 2) This team is nowhere near seriously challenging for a World Series. We’ve seen their results against the best teams. The pitching staff is not good enough. They can score runs, but can guys like Castro, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, and Wallner get it done in the playoffs to the extent to offset subpar pitching? The jury is still out. Theyre unlikely to beat any of the top AL teams in a playoff series as currently constructed in my opinion. Let alone multiple series. 3) Prospects are often wildly overrated. How many of these guys they’ve traded away in recent would actually make a difference? You could argue none. Would Steer make any difference exceeding Castro or Lee or Lewis? Would CES provide significantly more than Miranda, Larnach or Wallner? None of the SP prospects we’ve traded would be helping right now. At some point, the question is whether you want to win a World Series or not. We’ve spent decades being conservative and waiting for prospect stars to align. That is not a viable strategy, unless you’re OK with what we’ve gotten over since 2001. Id rather go for it and push the chips in at some point. If Lopez continues to look good, Ober stays healthy, and Ryan avoids the second half collapse, adding a Skubal makes this a legitimate rotation. Throwing in another competent late inning guy (that is not Varland, Paddack, or Topa) gets them another step closer. They still might not win it, but they’d have a much better chance. They’re much more likely to push for a WS appearance or an ALCS, which is still much better than what we’ve seen. It’s worth it. Also, no, getting guys back from injury is not like making a trade. I despise that annual trope. They aren’t good enough with those guys all healthy. Why would we assume everyone is going to be healthy for the playoffs anyway? Im not advocating they trade Jenkins or Rodriguez. But, if they can get a legit pitcher for a package of Keaschall, Raya, Festa, etc., and a sell high major league piece like Larnach, Miranda, or SWR, I’m in. Some of these position players should be jettisoned from the roster soon anyway. Lee, Lewis, Correa, Buxton, etc. aren’t going anywhere for a long, long time. You have to maximize the value of some of these guys while you can. You don’t want to wait for the fall out like Julien and be stuck with a bad player taking up a roster spot.

Of course it is. It’s monstrous. If we can’t do some damage in the playoffs, or even make the playoffs, with basically the whole division in a rebuild cycle and no clearly dominant/unbeatable AL teams, payroll “maxed out,” Lopez, Buxton, and Correa on big lengthy contracts, most of our marquee prospects (or recent prospects) at the major league level (namely Lewis and Lee), and guys like Correa, Buxton, Castro, Miranda, Ryan, Jax, etc. all having career years simultaneously (lightning doesn’t strike twice in that regard)….that’s an absolutely epic failure and we start staring down the barrel of a fairly tough roster situation with no easy way out. Im already feeling relatively hopeless when it comes to this team seriously competing for a championship again in my lifetime. That may be a coffin nail.

I’m not so sure. There’s plenty of regression to be had on the Twins roster. In my opinion, numerous hitters performed at an unsustainable level in the first half. Larnach, Castro, and Jeffers have already come back to earth. We saw Lewis slump, and he certainly won’t continue to slug .700. Lee has shown some holes with a .313 OBP and .744 OPS now after his torrid start. History says Buxton will hit and injury or extended slump at some point. Correa developing plantar fasciitis might derail him, but his production may be unsustainable even if healthy. Miranda had a nice run, but he’s due for a slump as well. Things could turn back to anemic offense we saw early in the season in a hurry if it happens all at once. I could see Kepler start hitting for some power and Wallner continue to hit some home runs, but who knows. Lopez could turn things around, but Ryan has shown us second half meltdowns and has given up 13 runs in his last 4 starts with less than 6 IP in each. Ober is has been good, but his last 6 starts have been against the White Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Oakland (twice), and the Pirates. The four starts prior to that, he gave up 16 runs over 4 starts against the Yankees, Royals, Tangers, and Cleveland, while not making it beyond 5 innings in any of those. He’s also got quite the history of durability issues, and is already at 100 innings. SWR is a clear regression candidate and Paddack isn’t any good. There’s also some bullpen guys pitching above their head, historically, that could be regression candidates. Looking at the Guardians roster, not sure I see any strong regression candidates other than Kwan. Houston and Boston are both playing very good baseball and are closer to us than we are to the Guardians. I think it’s more likely that we get chased down by them and miss the playoffs all together than win the division. I still expect them to make the playoffs, but it is still way more up in the air than most seem to think. Too many people are already looking forward to the playoffs.

Yes they do. I wouldn’t trust anyone outside of Duran and Jax in a high-leverage playoff scenario. Maybe Alcala, but he’s pretty volatile. Even Duran has looked shaky at times with the significant decrease in velocity. Banking on Paddack, Stewart, Staumont, Topa, to be healthy and performing well, and Sands and Varland to be good is irresponsibly optimistic. The lefties in the bullpen are all pretty bad. Thielbar was phenomenal most of last year, but we saw how well that worked out last year in the playoffs against the Astros. I don’t want them to have to give up prospect capital for a reliever. That’s why I implore them to be more aggressive in free agency. It’s not a significant investment. But, they made their bed and now have to sleep in it.

Things really couldn’t have gone much better for the Twins. If you would’ve told anybody to give a projected stat line for guys getting regular playing time, nearly everyone has exceed expectations. Wallner and Julien’s struggles and Royce’s injuries are about the only things that went wrong, and they were pretty easily replaced with Lee, Castro, etc. Pitching wasn’t great, but if you look at the bullpen’s numbers, there’s not really a surprise there. Take out one awful start from Ober, and he’s been as good as we could’ve hoped for (and is staying healthy). Ryan has exceeded expectations. SWR has far exceeded expectations. On top of that, they’ve had a fairly easy schedule. I expected them to be worse. It’ll be more difficult to maintain this pace in the second half, but if the offense continues scoring like this, they’ll be fine. There’s still a real chance of missing the playoffs altogether. Boston, the Rays, Houston, etc are all hanging around. One or two tough weeks could make the outlook much different.

What future? 3 of our top 5 prospects have appeared in major league games this year (counting Lewis who has played about a half of a season in the majors). Our top prospect (Jenkins) might be 3+ years away. We’ve been waiting for this “future” since Mauer was drafted. There’s always a savior on the horizon that never shows. There’s always a team we can’t beat yet. I agree that they shouldn’t make a trade just to make it. But, at some point over the course of 25 years, you have to go for it.

If I’m running the FO, I’m not trading for a starter unless they’re a real needle mover in the playoff rotation. We don’t need a #3-4 starter to make the playoffs, and a pitcher of that caliber won’t help in the playoffs. Kikuchi is not a needle mover by any stretch. Not a great pitcher to begin with (career ERA is rough), but not sure I feel any better running him out against most the loaded offenses in the AL (Yankees, Astros, etc. are pretty scary for a lefty). He has no playoff experience/track record. Id rather load up the bullpen than trade for a marginal starter. Also, it’s pretty sad that we have write-off every potential playoff rotation piece because they make $20M. That’s why we never won anything playoff-wise in the 00s, and why we’ll likely continue to get bounced early until it changes (or develop multiple rotation hammers).

They really need a couple of good bullpen pieces and a starter. This pitching staff has no chance in a playoff series the way it’s currently constructed. That’s the case even if Pablo and Duran round back into form. It still baffles me that they don’t try to sign some of these relievers that get 1 or 2 year deals every year. The back end is in place, all they need is a couple guys to bridge the gap. Stop waiting for Alcala, Winder, etc. to figure it out after 5 years. Instead, we’re talking about giving up guys like Raya and Culpepper on a team desperate for competent rotation pieces to fill in after Ober. Just pony up the $5-$10 million in free agency and at least have the chance of saving the prospect capital to develop or package for a starter. This is my biggest gripe with the FO/ownership right now.

At this point, I don’t think we call it luck. Could be, but it seems really unlikely to me. Some people may be phenomenal athletes, but their bodies can’t handle it for whatever reason. Maybe they started strength training too early and things didn’t develop properly. Maybe too much strength training. Some people’s bodies can’t handle the additional load/force. Maybe they weren’t well rounded enough in their activities and things didn’t develop properly. My son plays hockey and you hear it from a lot of high level coaches now that focusing all year on hockey isn’t great for their development as an athlete. Sports all rely on different muscle groups in varying ways. High end guys now do one thing rigorously all year as children in the hopes of scholarships, going pro, etc. It can come with consequences. Genetics was mentioned above, and it’s valid (some responses would lead you to believe it’s not). Some bodies can’t handle it no matter what you do to your body. I grew up with a guy who was one of the best baseball players I’ve seen. Great athlete, naturally. Very minimal strength training, not a muscle-bound guy by any stretch. Very gifted runner, extremely fast. 4 sport athlete that excelled at everything. He seemed to do everything right developmentally, incredibly fit, his body just couldn’t handle it. He had hamstring problems that started in high school and got progressively worse until he was basically forced off his college baseball team. Later on in his 20s, he couldn’t even play slow pitch softball anymore, despite being one of the best players in the state (when he could play). The guy could not run without incurring a soft-tissue injury. Who knows the root cause. But, it’s definitely looking like Royce’s body is just breaking down. If so, there’s nothing that can be done. If you’re to the point where you have to devise ways to keep guys healthy via telling them not to do routine athletic activities (don’t run bases more than half speed, etc.), it’s probably already over. It certainly could be luck. But, to me, that sounds like much more of a coping mechanism than “genetics.” Getting hit by a pitch, running into another player, stepping on a base wrong, running into a wall, etc. all seem like a “luck” write-off. There’s something you could’ve done differently. Repeated non-contact soft-body and ligament injuries to your legs while running or fielding a ball….there’s an underlying problem.

Great news. Would be better news if he were coming to man 2B with Lewis at 3rd. Not feeling great about Royce’s long-term outlook. If you can’t do a routine baseball activity like running the bases without a soft tissue injury in your early/mid 20s, I cant see it improving with age. I was holding out hope the injuries were bad luck that would turn. That hope is fading.

The signing looks great right now. They lucked out big time getting him at a discount. He led the Twins to a “playoff series” win (3 gamer). He’s playing the best baseball of his career right now. He’s the clear clubhouse leader. I said it in the Buxton thread also. It’s the best the Twins can do. If anyone is expecting more than what he’s providing on his contract, they need to realign their expectations.

That would be a solid point if the Twins actually paid a premium for a starting caliber backup. But, they haven’t and they won’t.

Anyone who says Buxton isn’t worth his contract just doesn’t understand how value is calculated and has unrealistic expectations/ideas about such things. The Twins arbitrary salary limitations and how he fits that is irrelevant. How he arrives at his final numbers via hot streaks and slumps, and how that impacts actual wins and losses is irrelevant (other players have to participate in that as well). People also forget he’s a CFer when considering his offensive output. It’s not a premium offensive position. He’s been well above average in terms of OPS every year since 2019, except for one when he was right around league average (99 OPS, .731 OPS in 2023). Those numbers are MLB as a whole, include all MLB positions and are even better when filtering for only CFers. 4 of those seasons were well above .800 with well over .500 slugging. He’s a very good offensive CFer, slumps included. Other factors that don’t get measured: The guy has only grounded into 16 double plays in 10 MLB seasons. He’s also a great clubhouse guy, a competitor, works his ass off, and gets in zero trouble off the field. At his baseline, including missed time, he’s easily worth the contract. Dont care about past performance? In 2024, baseball savant has him in the 75th percentile of major leaguers in batting run value, 89th in baserunning run value, and 87th in fielding run value. He’s in the 70th for xslug, 79th in exit velocity, 83rd in bat speed, and 79th in hard hit %. Defensively, 85th in range, 97th in arm value, 87th in arm strength. 98th in base running. Obviously, he struggles in the area of chase %, whiff %, K %, and BB%, but when he’s among the elite in nearly every category when it comes to the outcome when he hits the ball, who cares on his contract? It’s a legitimate gripe if he’s making making twice as much. For those asking for a premium defensive CFer to carry the team for more prolonged stretches, your expectations aren’t realistic for his contract value. Also, he basically just did that for the entire month of June with a .352/.390/.704/1.094 slash line over his last 15 games. What are some people asking for, here? If he was healthy more often, he would be worth way more. You can’t expect prime Ken Griffey Jr. on a 7 year $100M contract. A reference point: Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier are making $10.5 million this year. Brandon Nimmo and Staring Marte are making over $20. Cody Bellinger is making nearly $30M. Buxton has accumulated 1.4 more WAR than Kiermaier, .4 less than Nimmo (Nimmo has played in 15 more games), 1.0 more than Marte, .1 more than Bader (who is 18 points over his career OPS+ and due for regression offensively), .5 more than Bellinger. Once you past the controllable years, good luck finding somebody better for cheaper (and willing to play in MN). Like it or not, this is a good deal, and the Twins aren’t doing better.

Ryan‘s been undoubtedly great. But, he needs to put a full season together before we call him an ace.

I’m fine with it next year. A good starter is more valuable than a good reliever. It’s worth the risk. This isn’t Mariano Rivera. He’s good, but I think everyone would be fine if they traded him for a good starting pitcher. What’s the difference, if he’s capable of doing it?

What he’s done this far is amazing, and he’s got an intangible quality about him that can’t be denied. But, he needs to show he can stay healthy for more than a month at a time before I crown him a superstar. I’m optimistic, but still not confident. He can’t keep up this insane power binge. But, If we look in 2-3 weeks and he’s still hitting like a .900 OPS elite level hitter, I’ll join in calling him a superstar that you need in the All Star game.

I struggle to see how people conclude that we have no room for one of the best prospects in baseball (Lee). We aren’t the Dodgers. The MLB roster is loaded with average to below average players that aren’t meaningful contributors. With the defensive flexibility of Castro, Lee would certainly be an upgrade over Farmer and Margot. Larnach and Miranda got off to hot starts but have come back down to earth a bit and are basically positionless. We shouldn’t have them cemented in a building blocks. Kepler started off hot and has crashed a bit. He’s a pending free agent and could be moved. Jeffers has also crashed, creating less of need for him to DH frequently when not catching. Martin has been good, but hits for no power and isnt exactly a stud in the OF. He doesn’t need to play every day. On top of that, one of Correa, Lewis, and Buxton will almost certainly hit the IL again in the near future. Im not necessarily advocating for any specific move, here. But pointing out that there is all sorts of room for Lee if he keeps tearing the cover of the ball and forces the hand. We need to start worrying more about making the team as good as it can be and less about losing one of our numerous marginal players. There’s no reason we can’t find a spot for both Wallner and Lee (although they may have already missed the boat on Wallner’s annual hot streak). If we get to the end of the season and miss the playoffs by 1 or 2 games (a real possibility) because of an unwillingness to shake up the roster, shame on them. That’s fireable, IMO. Prime example last night. One swing from Wallner or Lee could’ve been the difference.

Many seem to be penciling in Julien as a long-term solution. I’m not so sure. He has a long way to go to get back here. This was thought of as a quick get-right trip to AAA, but he’s been just as bad down there. I’m not writing him off by any means, but he needs to prove it again over a fairly large sample. I’d like to see Lee get the next crack at 2B. He’s a more complete hitter than Julien (he’s not all or nothing). He likely won’t be as susceptible to these prolonged, detrimental slumps that drag the entire offense down. He’s at least as good as Julien defensively, with the added flexibility to play SS/3B. Castro seems to thrive in his super utility role. His value is multiplied by being able to play anywhere, allowing for all sorts of lineup combinations/defensive alignments. I don’t see any reason right now to lock him into one of the most inconsequential defensive positions on the field. Lee is nearly ready, Miranda needs as many ABs as possible, and we’re giving ABs to guys like Margot in the OF. Castro can find every day ABs in the OF and occasional fill-in duty in the infield. That’s how you maximize the current roster, in my opinion.

Correa likely denied LaVelle some preferential treatment that he was looking for in the way of an exclusive piece or inside information. I feel that a solid chunk of Correa’s reputation has been built on his incredible postseason performances, not necessarily his career regular season numbers. Frankly, I don’t care much about what some bloated contract schlubs from the Mets or Padres think about Correa. I know he’s someone that can contribute bigly in getting this team over the hump in the postseason (if ownership and the FO were to pull their weight). There are a lot of great young shortstops right now, in addition to some of veterans that are still great. I’m not overly concerned about where he ranks. When the chips are down and it’s playoff time, Correa has a track record that’s one of the best in the history of the game. Enough said. We’ll see if Bobby Witt and the like can nut up in the playoffs at some point. Until then, who cares. And you can’t tell me the team around him has nothing to do with this perception. I guarantee those rankings look different if he was the SS for the Yankees or Dodgers.

While the point of the article is is a good one, you can’t wait forever for these guys to figure it out when you’re trying to stay afloat in the playoff race. Especially when you have guys performing at AAA like Martin and Wallner. Julien and Alex K. weren’t hitting anybody over fairly long stretch when they got sent down. If Martin can continue to get one base at the bottom of the lineup and set the table for Lewis, Correa, and a hearing up Buxton, while providing some defensive flexibility, I get it. As said in the article, that would be useful. I may have tried to ride Wallner’s power binge, myself. But, I can’t argue with Martin’s OBP and K/BB numbers.

Same likelihood that they DFA and option the entire roster after reanimating the corpses of every player on the ‘27 Yankees. I mean, come on. They couldn’t even be bothered to spend $5M for a backup CFer, and you think there’s even a remote chance they give up prospect capital and multiple years at over $20M to add a 14th DH/1B to the roster? It’s just patronizing at this point.