Beast

He’s ready.

Letting him walk would’ve been the biggest PR nightmare this team has ever dealt with. He was still a very good player for quite some time after signing the deal. It wasn’t the albatross some make it out to be. They also got a number of years of elite level performance out him at a team friendly rate. In terms of his overall value to the franchise as a whole, you have to consider that as well. It goes beyond the numbers on the field to make the contract “worth it.” The merch, the exposure, and all the other things attached to the player. Mauer alone was arguably bigger than the Twins franchise a whole in terms of national recognition. He just won the MVP. He was on the cover of video games, in TV commercials, in All Star games, winning batting titles, winning silver sluggers, winning good gloves. It’s easy as Twins fans, I think, to forget the heights he reached and the trajectory he was on at that time. His name was in the national conversation like it hadn’t been since Kirby. At his peak he was in the conversation for the best catcher in the history of the game. It was the right move. No question. Even with the benefit of hindsight. Have to do that deal 100% of the time.

Lewis hasn’t been healthy for more than a few weeks at a time in 4 years. Polanco has injury problems. Martin and Miranda stink. Problem solved. Are we the only fan base that is always agonizing about having too many players that aren’t any good? Remember the outfield logjam hysteria of a couple years ago? Now we have none. You can never have too much depth.

If Buxton doesn’t find his way back to the outfield, he might be a worse player than Stanton right now (and Buxton is 4 years younger). Stanton has 100 fewer ABs this year and only 2 fewer HRs. Stanton is driving in about .18 runs per AB, Buxton about .14. Though, the slash lines are nearly identical. They are both hitting primarily in the 3-4 hole and Stanton hasn’t really had better players in front of him. Judge has been hurt, it’s been a lot of Gleybar Torres (who is no better than Julien), Volpe (who’s been no better than Correa), LeMahieu (who’s been awful), Rizzo (who’s been bad). Some things called Bauer and Peraza. This year, Stanton has a higher ISO (.245 to .230), a higher HR rate (6.4 to 4.9), a much lower K rate (24% to 31%), a higher hard hit rate (50.3% to 45.7%), he hits the ball to all fields better (25.5% pull rate to 39.7%). Factoring those numbers, and the fact that Stanton has nearly equal production in fewer PAs, and some hard luck (BABIP of .197 vs. Buxton’s .253), and it looks like Stanton is the better hitter right now…..and it’s not really close. Stanton has played 307 games since 2021, Buxton 238. That’s resulted in 140 more total bases. He’s walked 51 more times than Buxton over that stretch. Driven in 90 more runs. He’s struck out at a lower rate than Buxton over that time (28% to Buxton’s 30%). Buxton’s only real saving grace in that comparison is his phenomenal 2021 season where he had an OPS+ of 171….but he only played in 101 of the teams games that year. That was his age 27 season. Stanton’s age 27 season was a 169 OPS+…..BUT….a .281/.376/.631 slash with 59 HRs, 123 Rs, 132 RBI and he played 159 games. Oh, and he was the fricken MVP. That’s over 50% of the home runs Buxton has hit in his entire career. Finally, Stanton has played 100+ games in 10 of his 14 seasons. Buxton 1 of 9. You’re comparing Buxton to Stanton as if it’s a bad thing. We can only dream of Buxton being Stanton. The Yankees may want to be mildly worried that Stanton might eventually age down into the prime version of Buxton.

We might have jumped the gun on proclaiming Joe Ryan a really good pitcher. Dude’s going to have a 5 ERA soon.

Julien might be the team MVP at this point, even though he’s spent half the season in the minors and can’t play defense. Dude’s got a .908 OPS, 150 OPS+, and 2.0 oWAR in about 200 PAs. Extrapolate that WAR out over a full seasons worth of PAs, and we’re talking about a damn good hitter. For reference, Nelson Cruz had a 4.3 oWAR in 521 plate appearances in 2019, and he finished 9th in MVP voting. If Julien kept up his pace, he’d register over 5.1 oWAR in 520 PAs. More perspective, that’s more than Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Trea Turner, George Springer, Vlad Jr., etc. in 2022. Luis Arraez had 3.8 oWAR in 2022. All very loosely calculated based on ESPN stuff, but holy cow.

So, Cleveland’s front office is smart enough to see the writing on the wall and isn’t scared to make deals? Good for them. I don’t care about what Cleveland did. They still will likely beat this dog and pony show we have for the division, which makes it all the more egregious. The Twins coughing up a big contract for a player for the second time in franchise history doesn’t change the fact that they’ve been running circles around our FO in terms of roster management on a budget for quite a long time now. Anybody we’ll face in the playoffs, if we do make it, got much better and is going to drub us like they would a little league team. Winning this division isn’t an accomplishment. It should be the baseline.

If the roster isn’t worth investing in, trade players for prospects. Doing nothing with all of these expiring contracts (Gray, Maeda, Kepler, etc.) is so cowardly and such awful resource management.

False. MLB players get W-2s for each state in which they play a game. He’d be playing more games in California vs. Michigan. California’s top marginal income tax rate is nearly 14%. Michigan’s is between 4-5%. He’d be paying 10% more tax on home games (and the other multitude of away games vs. the Giants and Pads). Thats why people hire accountants. To save them money. He saved a ton (by my standards) by staying in Detroit. The national league isn’t easier on pitchers anymore. He’s currently pitching in the worst division in baseball with nobody that can score runs, on a team with zero expectations and pressure. He’s not going to get a substantially better deal going to Dodgers in his next round of free agency. If he struggles in any way, he’s much more likely to get yanked from the rotation and not get another shot. Also, personal opinion here, but LA sucks. If I got offered a transfer to an office out there I’d turn it down also. But, to each their own.

I’d be OK with Thomas for De Andrae, Headrick, and Lewis. No question. Not really interest in the others. Hernandez at a discount would be OK. Why do so many think it’s a good idea to bring Pham into this already mentally fragile clubhouse? I don’t know much about the guy as a person. But, when you’re getting stabbed outside of strip clubs, punching teammates over fantasy football, saying on record that you want to fight fans for heckling you, etc., a few red flags come up. Who knows how long that special kind of individual (to put it kindly) will even be able to play before picking up a suspension. The Mets are clearly dysfunctional in some way, despite having strong winning personalities/leaders like Verlander, Lindor, Sherzer, even character guys like McNeil, Alonso, Corrasco, young studs like Alvarez and Baty…there’s something going on in that clubhouse that doesn’t smell right. Not sure I want to bring any part of that here. Pham’s last 50 PAs, he’s slashing .186/.327/.279. 2 of the 3 years before this he’s OPS’d .686 and .624. The peak in those 3 years is .723. He slugged well under .400 in all 3 of those years. Lastly, he’s been dealing with Groin injury for a while now. He just left a game in the third inning after hobbling to first about a little over a week ago. For a multitude of reason, on the field and off, I wouldn’t touch Pham with a 10 ft pole.

They should be selling some things off, IMO. This FO just never seems to make the right call. They don’t have the stones to go after a premier player at the deadline when they should. They don’t have the stones to sell off expiring guys like Gray, Maeda, etc when they should. It’ll be another half-assed milquetoast deadline that won’t accomplish anything meaningful for the current or future years. They may get some washed reliever with shoulder problems, or maybe some marginal RH bat. The media will then praise the savvy and roll out the old faithful, “Lewis, Thielbar, etc. coming back later is like making a trade.” The deadline has been the same for Twins fans going back decades. Aside from Shannon Stewart and maybe Orlando Cabrera, I can’t think of a meaningful, highly successful move as a buyer. It’s typically guys like Kevin Jepsen, Matt Capps, Tommy Milone, etc. With the team looking dead in the water, there’s no point and trading controllable assets for something like that.

You also start the playoffs with the same players, coaches, and manager that you had during the regular season.

It seems likely that Kepler and Gallo will be gone. Alex K. is having a hard time staying healthy. Wallner is no guarantee to succeed. Seems like they’ll need a LH bat and someone that can play corner OF/DH next year. He’s cheap. Offers some upside. It’s a coin flip right right now that this team makes the playoffs. If they do, they’ll be fairly heavy underdogs against anybody they play. The prospects of a deep playoff run aren’t looking good. Without packaging a top guy, which they can’t do, the return in a Larnach trade wouldn’t change that. I’m overly opposed to it. I’m not overly high on Larnach. I just don’t really see a reason to trade him for a marginal rental player. I can’t see them doing that.

It’s indisputable that he’s the most consistent. You’ll never see the 8 inning shutout with 12 Ks like you’ll get with Ryan and Lopez, but you’ll also never see the 4 1/3 with 7 runs that you also get from them..

Not a gripe with the list in any way. It’s perfectly reasonable. But, for my money, I like Festa as the #1 pitcher. Priellip is much lower for me, I’m not sure I like the odds of him becoming a quality starting pitcher in the big leagues with his injury issues. All the talent in the world doesn’t matter if you can’t use it (see Buxton). Maybe he transitions to the bullpen? If so, he can’t be that high. As far as hitters, The shine has worn off of Rodriguez a bit. I’m tempted to slide him down past Jenkins. It’ll be interesting to see where those two are in relation to each other on top 100 lists (if included). It can’t be disputed that Brooks Lee is #1 with a bullet after his recent hot streak. In his last 8 games he has 14 hits, 27 total bases, 4 doubles, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 6 BB, 5 K. He hit .356/.444/.644 in July. Since July 7, he increased his batting average nearly 20 points and his OPS over 50 points. That’s in AA while being 2.5 years younger than average. He’s on fire.

Julien is an absolute monster.

Brooks LeeDavid FestaEmmanuel RodriguezWalker Jenkins I prefer Walker Jenkins to Walter.Marco RayaMatt WallnerTanner SchobelCharlee SotoYasser MercedesYunior SeverinoAustin MartinLuke KeaschallBrandon WinokurKala'i RosarioNoah MillerSimeon Woods RichardsonConnor PrielippMisael UrbinaJose RodriguezJose Salas

They shouldn’t do it out of panic. They should do it out of solid sustainable roster management and enough self-awareness to realize this team isn’t good enough to win anything. Also, looking at Gray, he’s 35, he doesn’t have an incredibly durable history (he’s pitched 175 innings once since 2018). He’s being a little overrated by Twins fans, I think. He’s sporting a 1.27 WHIP this year, which is actually higher than his career average. His K/BB ratio is the worst it’s been since 2017-2018 when he posted 4+ ERAs in both years. He’s come back down to earth fairly hard, with a 4.13 ERA over his last 7 starts, a 1.37 WHIP, while averaging 5.5 innings. His K/BB ratio is up fairly significantly. He’s almost certainly gone after this year. An article came out recently that he may even retire. If that happens, do you even get a comp pick? Lastly, I’m sure he’d be OK with a trade. He clearly has significant differences with Baldelli in terms of how he’s handled. Good pitcher, but we wouldn’t be trading prime Jake DeGrom, here. If you get the right return, by all means pull the trigger. The farm system has been raided in recent years and there’s not a whole lot to look forward to at this point. If they’re not going to be aggressive and make a move to win at the deadline, you have to sell. Sitting on your hands hoping this hapless roster turns it around is foolish.

Doesn’t matter what the prognosticators say. The FO is being paid to get the evaluations right and put a winning team together. Most prognosticators have no clue what they’re talking about. That’s why they’re prognosticating and haven’t been hired by a team to put a winning team together. No matter how you want to spin it, everyone is right to be disappointed. At this point, if they had done their job well, this team should be better. They didn’t plan for this team to be .500 (a lot of those system failures you’re referring to were intentional rebuilds - were trying to be a contender). We’re not exactly waiting in any Uber prospects either. We have no pitchers in the top 100. After the draft, we may have 2 hitters barely cracking top 50 lists. Brooks Lee doesn’t looks like a transformational superstar by any stretch, and Jenking is 5-6 years away. We’re also weighed down by two large contract for underperforming players. So, what’s the future here? Looks pretty damn bleak, from where I’m viewing things. The cumulative stats tell you we have the league’s top pitching staff in the first half. That is not sustainable. The absurd starts to the season by multiple guys has already faded and we’ve seen that. It’s a good starting staff, but there are better ones. The bullpen is an absolute horror show outside of one, maybe two, guys. The way they’ve been playing the last couple of months, this wont be a .500 team at year end. Those not disappointed with how this is going just have lower expectations. More power to you. I wish that’s how I felt, and could just sit down and enjoy watching this mess.

It would be so Minnesota Twins to refuse a 6 man rotation and burn a handful Ober’s starts in AAA when you thought you had a healthy Mahle, then use it to force the decayed remains of both Maeda and Keuchel and their 87 mph heaters into the fold. I’m not opposed to a 6 man, but looking at those two scenarios juxtaposed reveals the absurdity (if it were to happen) of that decision making process. It’s not even close in terms of which of those two scenarios is more beneficial to the team.

This team is in no position to dealing future assets for a short-term reliever. This team has a good chance of missing the playoffs altogether. They certainly aren’t winning a series. They’re better served going to forward to start cleaning house now vs. trying I cobble together some hapless attempt at winning.

I like the pick. Know nothing about the kid, like basically everyone else, but like the size and velo combo.

I’m happy with the pick. I was hoping Clark or Langford would somehow be there, but this is what I expected. They did the right thing, here, whether or not it works out. BPA.

People have to start getting fired. The ineptitude is just raging out of control at this point. There is no turning this ship around with the same personnel. Must have been a heck of a closed door players meeting that led to getting crushed by a score of about 57-4 in a 3 gamer. Such fortitude and courage.

It absolutely disgusts me to take Gonzalez. As you said, after getting so lucky moving up, we end up with that. Possibly the lowest upside of anyone they could take here. Hopefully a mediocre shortstop in the majors someday. You can sign one of those for $5M on any given year. Why draft one and pay a $6M bonus? If you absolutely have to play the “saving game,” which is a bad strategy, I would prefer they go with Nimmala, Meyer, Dollander…. even one of the high schoolers like Walker Martin….basically anyone else projected in the first round that is protectable into something more than mediocre.