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TwinsDr2021

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  1. IMO, why pay any pitcher that you don't except to at least the 6th in most of his starts anything over 10 million. If the team feels a pitcher is limited to 90 pitches and just over 18 guys a game he isn't worth that kind of money. I think the Twins have proven with Ober, Winder, Varland and others if you are going to limit a pitcher to twice though the lineup or so, it can be done with younger cheaper guys.
  2. I would say if Martin is Plan B for anything next year the FO has failed at preparing the Team to win in 23. Martin shouldn't be part of any plan for 23. If he proves his .316 SLG at age 23 in AA was a fluke and takes off and forces the Twins to include him in the Plans then that is a win/win for him and the team. He isn't on the 40 man now and there is ZERO to put him on it until he proves he deserves it. IMO
  3. Are you saying the twins should start a guy in the majors who had a .317 SLG in AA at age 23? Or not sign a guy to a multi year contract because he could block prospects? I can go with the second.
  4. I was agreeing with you and if Garlick is a Plan C if Larnach, AK, Martin, Wallner or somebody else is hurt or not performing he can step in like Cave did last year then it is an OK signing, if it does impede anybody than it is just another failure by this FO.
  5. If at any point there is a top prospect that is hot in AA or AAA and he doesn't come up because Garlick is blocking him this is a fail. If they can treat him like Cave last year then is good deal for the Twins 750K doesn't stop them from signing anybody.
  6. Sure maybe for fill in guys, but the problem with that statement is that the two rookie of years players are 21 and missed that same year. Royce Lewis miss that year and another year and now another year and still isn't 25. The Covid year hurt that guys that move though a system slow spend a couple of years in the majors (Maybe) and turn into backups or AAAA players. Real studs or even guys that have a chance to spend years in the majors just hit or pitch and make the majors. Winning teams are keeping this old of prospects on their 40 man (unless its a catcher or somebody like Canterino).
  7. If I was running the Twins the only two that get added are Julien and Canterino. I could be convinced on Serverino as well, possibly. There is no reason to waste 40 man roster spots on minor league guys on the wrong side of 25, unless of course they think there is a real chance of them making the team out of spring training. Which I don't see any of these guys Brent Headrick - 25 in December Chris Williams - 26 in 9 days Michael Helman - 27 in May Cody Laweryson - 25 in May Kody Funderburk - 26 in two weeks DaShawn Keirsey - 26 in May Austin Schulfer - 27 in December Nobody is going to put Urbina in the majors next year
  8. Not really sure I see the need to sign him to a multiple year contract or really bring him back. The Twins have to figure out what they have in all these old pitching prospects. WInder, Varland, Canterino, Balazovic, Mooney, Sands, Legumina, They also need to figure out what they have with some a bit younger, Enlow, Cruz, Henriquez, Festa and SWR. Finally not block the younger guys if they prove worthy for promotion (maybe not this year but next year.) Prielipp, Raya, Medina, A real pitching pipeline is bring up a starter each year and a couple of relief pitchers so you can cycle them out prior to losing them in free agency. One could say they have Ober and Ryan and need somebody like Varland or SWR to step up this year and have a Prielipp or somebody next year. They have Duran, Jax, Moran in the pen maybe a Winder and Canterino, Henriquez, Festa or Sands steps up this year,
  9. Not a shot a you but in general 26 year old Winder has to be on the major league team as does 25 year old two time minor league pitcher of the year Varland. There is no reason both of these guys aren't starting the year in the majors both offer exactly what others/I have been asking for guys that can pitch multiple innings.
  10. Are you saying go youth on the offensive side in the last year of Gray, Mahle and Maeda?
  11. This would work in a perfect world but in the real world there are way too many variables that happens, extra innings, one of the relief pitchers isn't good or more, or you are up and somebody gives up runners and you need to bring another pitcher in. I do agree 100% they have to have some relievers that can go at least 2 innings just about every time out. The easiest way to guarantee that is when you have a pitcher you know will not go 6+ innings you start the relief pitcher for 2. Now I hate this and if Twins or anybody started doing this more often than not it would be another nail in the coffin for baseball but doing it occasionally or maybe 25-30 times wouldn't be so horrible (If the team is doing well because combing this with losing well that is unacceptable and unwatchable)
  12. McClanahan made 28 starts which put him at 5.93 a start and averaged facing 23 batters a game (Not to far off a typical Ryan/Gray start). He didn't pitch in 2020 then went straight to the majors at age 24 from A and AA in 2019. He pitched 123.1 innings in 21. He only had what I would call a Twins start less than 6 innings with less than 3 ER's 3 times and two of them were in his last 4 starts. I would assume they were trying to keep him fresh for the playoffs. To me the big difference with him and the twins pitchers was he was WAY, WAY more efficient with his pitches. He only twice got to 100 pitches and finished at least 7 innings in 25% of his starts. Kluber is what I believe the Twins thought all their pitchers could be, a guy that would pitch under 100 pitchers (never pitched more than 92 and rarely got to 90) and finish 6 innings when on and rarely ever pitch less than 5 (Only 5 times, 6 if you include his first start 4 2/3.) Rasmussen was Kluber except it took him more pitches, but when his was low they seem to let him go further than Kluber. Springs was a stud in the bullpen that was moved to a starter and given more of a leash as the season went on, never really turned into a 6 inning pitcher unless he was lights out which was about 25% of the time.
  13. They started the season with a 6 man rotation and traded for another starter, that is half of the 14, one was 24 year old two time minor league pitcher of the year (had a higher average than the team). two were Top prospects (Winder and SWR - 1 game 5 innings). That gets us to 10. One was Smelzer who as a starter was actually fairly decent and brought the team average up. That leaves us 3 Chic Chi, Sanchez and Sands who made a total 8 starts. Lets not overlook the fact that this FO brought in Bundy (29 starts and 140 innings) and Archer (25 starts and 102.2 innings) and gave them 1/3 of all the teams starts for the year, traded for two injured guys, relied on a often injured guy (Ober) and the back up plan of Smelzter/Winder(injury prone) and cast offs and didn't plan for a bullpen of guys that could go multiple innings and left Varland in the minors much longer than needed when things weren't going well. Also they had 4 starters in the top 87 starters that started games. This is completely on the FO and its plan for the year.
  14. you can't have 4 to 5 guys going 1 inning night. And it seems you are dead on how to stop that either your bullpen guys need to pitch longer or your starters needs to pitch longer, doesn't seem that hard, and yet the Twins FO hasn't figured it out for two years.
  15. 2 outs per game might not seem like a big deal but over the course of the season it is 108 innings. Kind of seems like a lot of innings to fill that the average MLB didn't have to, no? Dig a little deeper into the other numbers and you see they were 29th out of 30th in Quality starts, the average was 59 and they had 35 and remember they weren't using a 1 inning starter, the 3 teams below the Twins Rays, Nationals and Pirates all used a relief pitcher as a starter over 10 times, They were #1 in games where the starter went less 80 pitches with 85 games the average 45 games. They were 30th in games where the starter went between 80-99 with 67 games, the average 92 games. They were 27th in games where the starter went between 100-119 with 10 the average 25 games. I will say it again, I am not complaining about what they did last year (at least not here) and I understand some of the circumstances that may have lead to this. But to lead the majors in starts with starters having less than 99 pitches and be 29th in quality starts without ever user a "Starter" can't be summed up as "well the Twins are doing what everybody else is doing". Also my fuzzy math looks like if you remove the "starter" starts from the Rays, Pirates and Nationals the Twins drop to dead last in IP/GS.
  16. Canterino turns 25 in just over a month and has pitched 60 innings since 2019 his time as a starter is over, because it will take a couple of years to stretch him out anyway. He has the ability to be like one of the Astros relief pitchers and that is what he should be groomed for. Given him some innings in the minors and if he is good get him up to the Twins bullpen. I think Alcala should be start out as a low pressure guy until he proves he is back and better than ever. Both these two should/could jump Jax in the pecking order and pass the ball off to Duran and Lopez.
  17. The Twins need every regular RP to be better than Jax, he gave up ER's in 17 of his 65 games, that is 1 out of 4 games. With as much as the Twins use the bullpen that has to be better. They need Lopez to the be the Baltimore version, they need Duran to be Duran, they need Moran to be as good or better than last year, they need Fulmer to be better than he was last year. Thielbar needs to be as good as he was last year. When you use the bullpen as much as they do they have to be good 9 out of 10 outings.
  18. I was comparing WAR between the two teams not really the players. The Twins have a total of 8 (5 for Celestino, 3 for Alcala) controllable seasons left out of 14 so the Twins still have some time to make this trade good or better. Alcala's last season was 21 and in his 59 games only 16 were high leverage and mostly against really bad teams at the end of the year, so he still has quite a lot to prove and my guess he will be brought along slowly in 23, IMO Celestino hasn't made great strides and unless things go real bad in 23 he shouldn't be playing in the majors unless he is amazing in AAA. I will give you that Alcala's career is similiar to Pressly's which bodes well for him and maybe the Twins.
  19. Alcala turns 28 in July and Celestino turns 24 in February I would argue neither are still young. The have combined parts of 6 seasons and have a combined WAR of .9 and Pressly has a WAR of 6. Alcala has 11 career holds, 1 save and 5 blow saves, he still needs to earn a high leverage role. I think he can but he still has work to do and Celestino hasn't really done anything to prove he is more than a minor league player. Teams that are trying to win can't have a player like Celestion as Plan A for anything.
  20. He averaged 89 in 2022 so basically he did that last year when he was on, is problem was he wasn't very efficient sometimes. The question would be if he is more efficient would his innings go up?
  21. I think you missed this - This response wasn't complaining about what they are doing it is to point out in fact what they are and have been doing
  22. 2021 Berrios Innings, ER, pitches, batters faced 6, 0, 84, 19 5.2, 2 ,99, 23 4.1, 4, 77, 18 5, 1 ,89, 19 5.2, 2, 83,23 Then in May 6, 4, 95, 25 6, 2, 104, 27 7, 4, 103, 29 5, 3, 84, 19 5.2, 1, 106, 27 8, 1, 101, 29 6, 4, 99, 26 7, 2, 99, 27 6, 3, 103, 27 6,1, 1, 96, 29 6, 4, 99, 26, 7, 2, 99, 27 6, 3, 103, 27 6.1, 96, 24 5, 3, 89, 26 7, 1, 106, 25 7, 4, 108, 27 6, 5, 94, 24 7, 0, 101, 26 So yes I do think after they realized they couldn't sign him they were show casing him. In 2020 they let him go 100 pitches twice, and 4 times he faced more than 24 or more batters. In 2019 of his 32 starts 12 times he pitched 100 pitches he did face more batters that year but most pitchers did as well.
  23. You say this like it is true, average innings per start isn't really a good start unless you dig into way it is what it is. Maybe average start based on earned runs would be better. Because his average start where he game up 3 or less runs was much higher in the past than it was with the Twins (I left out 18 because he had so many relief games but is was pretty much give up less than 3 runs and start the 6th) In 17 he started 27 games and in 21 of those he started the 6th inning, 19 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5. In 19 he started 31 games and in 20 of those he started the 6th inning, 17 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5. In 20 he started 11 games and in 7 of those he started the 6th, 5 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5. In 21 he started 26 games and 10 of those he started the 6th, 9 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5. In 22 he stared 24 games and in 9 of those he started and completed the 6th. 5 games he went 5. His problem is the past is there has been too many games he just wasn't good, In 17 the only games he didn't go at least 5 where games he gave up more than 4 runs and there was only 1 game where he didn't complete 5 giving up less than 3 earned runs and he went 5 2/3. In 19 there was only two games where he had given up 2 runs or less that he didn't finish the 6th. In 20 there was only two games he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 21 there were 3 games where he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 22 there were 9 games (more than a 1/3 of his starts) where he gave up 2 or less earned runs that he didn't start the 6th. I am not saying they did something crazy or even wrong with Gray last year, just pointing out that what you are saying isn't exactly accurate.
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