Matt Krepp

With the postseason wrapped up and the offseason fast approaching, it's time to talk about the months ahead and what can be expected of the Twins. I have lots of thoughts on the direction of this team and find that the offseason (and the endless possibilities that come with it) is one of my favorite times to be a baseball fan. It allows you to think outside of the day-to-day of the team and daydream about the season ahead. However, between all of that daydreaming and my actual job, I have a hard time consistently writing my thoughts. As a solution, I am going to try to make one, long primer for what I think the Twins should and will do in the months ahead. As things change and moves happen, I will also try to circle back here with updated thoughts and next steps for the team. Additionally, I have a weekly podcast ("Matt and Eric Talk Twins") where I discuss my thoughts on the team in real time and talk through concepts that never make their way to the digital paper. So, if you enjoy this article and want to hear more from me, you can tune into the podcast or follow me on X @KreppMatt. Without further ado, on to the 2026-2027 Offseason Primer! Payroll I would be remiss if I didn't mention the elephant in the room. Since 2023, the Twins have cut over $47MM in payroll from their books, from $167.8MM in 2023 to just under $111.3MM in 2026 (per Fangraphs). In that time, much has been made of Joe Pohlad's comments about "right-sizing" the Twins spending and the debt the Pohlad family supposedly took on from baseball operations. The purpose of this article isn't to re-litigate that debacle, as it already led to Joe Pohlad's ouster as controlling owner. Instead, I bring up past payroll cuts as context for the new messaging coming out of the owners suite. Since taking over for his brother, Tom Pohlad has continually noted the frustration the fans feel towards the current level of spending and has noted that it is the ownership team's job to win back those fans that have lost confidence in the team. He has even gone so far as to call past payroll cuts a mistake and has noted that "a $100MM payroll isn't going to get us where we want to go". This all hints at a willingness to spend more on the on-field product. However, Tom Pohlad has refused to give any specific numbers or a range for where the final payroll may fall in 2027. In lieu of a clearer picture, I am going to lay out my plans in 3 main spending buckets: $110MM, $135MM, and $160MM. The idea is that the lower tier keeps the Twins at roughly were in 2026, the middle tier gets them back to where they were in 2024 and 2025, while the upper tier has the approaching 2023 levels of spending. Hopefully, between the three plans, we will have a better idea of what the Twins roster could look like based on the degree to which the Pohlad pocketbook opens. Non-Tender Decisions: The Twins went into the offseason with five real decisions to make in arbitration. They already made the first of these decisions by choosing to DFA Anthony Banda, rather than paying him his projected $2.3MM salary via arbitration. This was not surprising given his current recovery from lat surgery and the expectation that he will not be ready to pitch until some time in July. That leaves decisions on the following four players: Royce Lewis, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, and Cole Sands. Cole Sands (RHP) for $1.2MM - The decision on Sands is fairly straightforward - if you think he's going to be healthy in 2026, then you should give him a contract. Sands has regressed significantly from a breakout 2024, but still looks the part of a solid middle-inning reliever or secondary setup man when health. However, health was a major limiting factor for Sands last season, when he threw a total of only 12 innings and spent most of the season out with an elbow injury. If the Twins believe he is going to be healthy enough to throw significant innings in 2027, he is will worth the slightly over league average salary he is projected for. However, with only two more years of control left, the Twins might feel he is not worth holding on the 40-man roster if he is expected to miss time or otherwise be limited next season. Bailey Ober (RHP) for $6.9MM - For Ober, it all comes down to velocity. In the last two seasons he has shed over 3 mph on his average fastball and seen a corresponding dropoff in strikeout rate and uptick in hard-hit%. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2026, Ober ranked 122nd of 141 in K% and 80th of that same 141 in hard-hit%. He simply does not miss enough bats or induce weak enough contact to warrant a spot in a playoff hopeful's rotation. I am sure he will latch on as a veteran innings eater for a rebuilding team, but the Twins can do better in the 5th starter spot and should allocated that $6.9MM elsewhere. Trevor Larnach (LF) for $6.3MM - Larnach had a breakout 2026 and could be the only member of this group to hold actual trade value. However, while he did post a career-high 123 wRC+ this season, almost all of that damage came against RHP and Larnach remains a poor defender in left field. I could absolutely see a team in need of a left handed bat or starting option in LF being interested in Larnach, but I think the return in trade would be minimal. For a Twins team that already employs Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Alan Roden, and has Hendry Mendez waiting in AAA as other LHH COF, there is not room for Larnach on this roster. My approach would be to shop him around before the non-tender deadline to see what you can get. If not deal emerges, then the Twins should non-tender him in favor of playing the younger options and allocating his projected $6.3MM salary towards other needs. Royce Lewis (1B) for $5.1MM - Oh boy! I saved the most controversial one for last. Many fans continue to dream on the version of Lewis they saw in 2023 - the flashy, homer-hitting phenom that powered the Twins offense to their first playoff series win in 21 years. Unfortunately, that version of Lewis disappeared shortly after the 2023 postseason and has not been heard from since. Since the start of 2024, Lewis has a .232/.288/.401 slash line, including .234/.283/.377 in his last 296 plate appearances in 2026. Add in that Lewis is now a full-time 1B and the offensive output is unplayable. For three straight seasons, Lewis has not been able to muster even league average offense, despite largely being healthy and asked to play a less demanding position. It is time for the Twins to cut bait on Lewis and recognize him for the player he has shown himself to be over his last 1,000 PAs, rather than the one we saw in stretches during his first few seasons. For the purposes of the exercise, I am going to assume that the Twins move on from all four of the guys listed above via either non-tenders or minor trades. I do not believe any of them would receive significant compensation in trade and therefore will not speculate on the players they could get back. As harsh as it sounds, the win in these cases for the team would simply be to have the cash and the roster spot back. Ryan Jeffers: While I would like nothing more than for Jeffers to be in a Twins uniform in 2027, I find it exceptionally unlike that the Twins would give him a long-term contract. Just this July, the Twins selected Vahn Lackey 3rd overall to be their catcher of the future and Jeffers will turn 30 during the upcoming season. While he has the bat to survive a drop in productivity (or a potential move from catcher), I doubt the Twins are too keen on giving a significant chunk of their payroll to an aging catcher. That leaves the Qualifying Offer as the only means through which the Twins could retain Jeffers. However, given the interest the Twins received in Jeffers at the deadline and has stature as one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, I expect he will receive and promptly turn down the Qualifying Offer in favor of a multi-year deal in free agency. As a result, my plans laid out below all exclude Jeffers. If he does happen to accept the qualifying offer, it would be a welcome surprise that bolsters the team for 2027. Trades: Similar to my reasoning above with the arbitration guys, I will not be speculating on trades the Twins could make or the returns they could get for individual players. The Twins are overwhelmingly likely to make at least one trade this offseason and it may be a core part of their roster building, it is exceptionally hard to predict. While, I do love gazing into crystal balls, I unfortunately left mine at home and do not want to lead you (dear readers) astray. Instead, my plans below will be focused specifically on free agent targets that match the Twins needs. What needs are those? Well, I'm glad you asked... Catcher: With Jeffers soon to depart via free agency, Victor Caratini is the only catcher remaining on the Twins 40-man roster. That was likely the Twins plan all along when they signed him to a 2-year deal last offseason, but Year 1 could hardly have gone worse. Caratini stumbled to a 79 wRC+ at the plate and allowed base runner to steal frequently against his below average arm. The Twins could hope for a bounce-back, but that seems risky when we're talking about a 33 year-old catcher on a team with playoff aspirations. The Twins could also look to re-add Alex Jackson to the 40-man roster, award him an estimated $1.5MM in arbitration, and give him the backup catcher job. However, Jackson brings his own question marks at the plate and seldom played for the Twins in 2026. If they are serious about contending in 2027, this is a group that will need some external reinforcements. Bullpen: To the surprise of nobody paying attention, the Twins bullpen was terrible in 2026. For the first several months of the season, they were near unwatchable and routinely let winnable games slip away. They did have some positive developments as the year progressed. Andrew Morris seemed to emerge as a late-inning option for several months, before struggling down the stretch. The same could be said of waiver pickup, Yoendrys Gomez, before his command and control turned back into a pumpkin in August and September. The Twins also bought relievers at the deadline, bringing in AJ Minter, Jeff Hoffman, and Tommy Nance. All three were very effective in their new uniforms and both Hoffman and Nance will return in 2027. However, the Twins will need to acquire a primary lefty to replace AJ Minter, as leaving Kody Funderburk in that role would be ill-advised. Overall, this group projects to be much better than the one that started 2026. Hoffman is legitimate high-end option and Morris, Nance, and Gomez all provide a decent enough floor and ceiling for the middle innings through the 7th inning. Ideally, the Twins would supplement this group with a good left-handed setup man and another high-end reliever of either handedness. That should be enough to get this bullpen back to average or better and provide more overall length. Right-Handed Bat / 1B or 2B: Stop me if you've heard this before, the Twins struggled against left-handed pitching last year. Shocking, right? Joking aside, the Twins have consistently failed to knock around left-handed arms since the Bomba Squad in 2019. Even with these repeated issues, they front office has not seemed willing to meaningfully invest in RHH bench bats to platoon with their many LHH options. This led to the Twins ranking 22nd among 30 teams in wRC+ against LHP. That comes while employing Ryan Jeffers, who smashed LHP to the tune of a 128 wRC+ in 2026 and has lifetime 136 wRC+ against opposite-handed foes. Needless to say, a typically punchless offense against southpaws now stands to lose their main sources of firepower. That makes adding a capably lefty-masher an even larger priority this offseason. Why is this need grouped in with 1B/2B? Well, as noted earlier, the Twins are typically reluctant to invest in a bench bat whose sole purpose is to play against lefties. So why not acquire an everyday player that happens to also succeed against lefties? If that is the goal, the two areas that could stand to be improved are either 1B or 2nd (depending on your preferred positioning of Kody Clemens). This would both lengthen the everyday lineup against RHP, but also address a key weakness against left-handers. Whew! That was a lot of background work, laying the floor for the offseason. Now let's get to the fun part! For each of my offseason plans, I will be using the new Dealin The Cards GM Simulator (https://www.dealinthecards.com/gm?team=min). If you are looking to play around with what the Twins (or any team) could look like at the end of the offseason, I recommend checking it out. They have pretty accurate salary figures built into the simulator and display easy to read graphics that show the moves you made. One note: They currently have Joe Ryan's salary at $13MM to match his mutual option, rather than the $9.6MM he is projected for in arbitration. So our actual payroll will be about $3.5MM below what displays on the graphic. The $110MM Plan: This plan does just the bare minimum for all of our needs and it's hard to make the case that this roster is better than the one we saw at the end of 2026. For each need, we are really shopping getting the Kmart versions of the players this roster truly requires. Behind the plate, Austin Hedges would be a right handed compliment to Caratini that should offer much better defense and keep would-be base-stealers in check. However, a Caratini/Hedges combo at catcher would likely be the worst offensive position of any team in baseball. Not ideal. Caleb Ferguson technically addresses the need for LHP in the bullpen, but is not the caliber of arm Twins fans should be hoping for. Early in his career, Ferguson was a plenty capable setup man for the Dodgers, combining above average strikeouts with a groundball prowess. However, in recent years, the velocity, strikeout rate, and walk rate have all trended in the wrong direction. The groundball numbers remain strong, but he now profiles as more of a middle reliever than anything approaching a high-leverage option. He is still 30 years old, so there is some hope of a turnaround, but this is roughly the equivalent to the Twins signing of Taylor Rogers last year. With lots of needs still in the bullpen and no high-leverage right-hander acquired, I am also moving Zebby Matthews to the bullpen. He is at roughly the same stage in his career as Louis Varland was when he was moved to the bullpen and the hope here would be for a similar jump into a setup caliber arm by the 2nd half. Ryan Mountcastle is a cheap bounce-back option at 1B that offers a 108 career wRC+ and a 124 wRC+ against LHP. However, he is coming off of back to back injury plagued and unproductive years, including 2026 where he suffered both a fractured foot and an oblique strain. If he gets back to his career norms, he is a capable everyday 1B or, at worst, short-side platoon partner for Clemens. The $135MM Plan: This is where things start to get more interesting. Off the bat, Carson Kelly is much more capably running mate to Caratini than Hedges. Kelly is not quite the level of defender Hedges is, but he is coming off the best two years of his career with wRC+ of 115 and 103 in 2025 and 2026. He also has a career 123 wRC+ against LHP, making him an ideal platoon partner for Caratini. I could see this tandem splitting catching duties 50/50, with Kelly getting nearly all of the starts against LHP. The contract structure should look familiar, as it is essentially just a richer version of the deal Caratini signed last year. The hope would be that Kelly remains more productive and could operate as the bridge option to Vahn Lackey this year and next. Gleyber Torres certainly fits the bill of a right-handed everyday masher on the right side of the diamond. He brings a career 113 wRC+ overall and and 135 wRC+ against LHP, along with roughly average 2nd base defense to the team. He is a remarkably consistent hitter year-over-year and would be a stabilizing veteran presence in the middle of the lineup. It's quite possible he gets a larger deal than this (even possibly for multiple years), but my hope is that a year where he only appeared in 96 games keeps his earning power in check and he is willing to retest the market next year. This would also allow Kody Clemens to move over to 1B, where he has graded out as a better defender. Overall, this would do a lot to lengthen the lineup, improve against LHP, and clean up the infield defense. AJ Puk and Pete Fairbanks both represent shots at upside in an otherwise fairly lackluster bullpen. Fairbanks has been a good closer for years, but battled uncharacteristic home run and walk issues in 2026. However, he continues to miss bats and the underlying stuff looks about the same as years past. This would be a bet on 2026 being an outlier and hoping that he rounds back into form as a late inning option. AJ Puk is similar in that he has a long track record of success in big league bullpens. In every season we have seen Puk appear, he has been one of the better left-handed strikout artists in baseball with ERAs in the low to mid-3s. However, durability has always been a concern for Puk and he is coming off both an internal brace procedure and a capsule strain in his shoulder. For however many innings he is healthy for, he should be a weapon, but the availability overall is a question mark. If everything clicks for these two, the Twins could have a dominant late inning trio with Hoffman, but it is very high risk / high reward. The $160MM Plan: Is it just me or is it getting hot in here? At $160MM, the possibilities really open up for the Twins to not just address immediate needs, but also upgrade parts of the roster. You will see some parts of the plan stay the same between $135MM and $160MM. Gleyber Torres would still be brought in to be the everyday 2B and Carson Kelly remains the running-mate to Victor Caratini behind the plate. Where things change would be the quality and types of players brought in after them. Rather than betting on bounce-back candidates in the bullpen, the increased spending room allows the Twins to go after one of the premier left-handed setup men in baseball, Alex Vesia. Coming off a 5-year stretch where he produced 5.6 fWAR out of the Dodger bullpen, Vesia would immediately be the Twins top southpaw and the 1b to Hoffman in the bullpen pecking order. That's not to say he's without warts. Vesia has a lower fastball velocity than you would expect of a reliever with his track record, and even that modest velocity has diminished recently. The good new is: it has not held him back from continuing to miss bats and be effective. Vesia also walks a few too many guys and relies heavily on flyballs, but the overall package is very strong. 3/$36MM would more than double the Twins record guarantee for a RP (Addison Reed - 2/$16.75MM), but it is a risk worth taking to bring in a badly needed arm in the backend. Additionally, in this plan the Twins bring in Raisel Iglesias to supplement the back end of the bullpen. Despite losing some velocity and strikeout rate over the past few years, Iglesias remains one of the most consistent and effective relievers in baseball. As a 37 year old reliever, he will certainly be available for a one-year deal in the low 8-figure range and would fit in well as the Twins new closer. His experience in the 9th inning would allow Vesia and Hoffman to act in more of a fireman role, putting out fires as they arise, rather than waiting to use them until the 9th. And that's not even where the pitching additions stop! In this scenario, the Twins could also take a shot at adding Nick Pivetta to the middle of their rotation. Pivetta is available to the Twins solely because of some elbow issues that bothered him throughout the 2026 season. However, the 2023-2026 seasons have been the strongest of Pivetta's career and he looks the part of a playoff starter when available. He brings to the Twins high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and only a bit worse than average home run suppression. Pivetta is a particularly good fit for a deep, but banged up Twins team, giving them some additional upside and also acting as a hedge against other rotation candidates getting injured. In the case of all the Twins starting pitchers making it through the spring healthy, they have several options capable of being stashed at AAA (Prielipp, Festa, Matthews, Rojas, Abel, etc). Otherwise, if the Twins think members of that group are too good to waste away in AAA, one or two could be added to the big league bullpen to make an immediate impact, while still retaining sufficient depth in the minors. That is the case we have projected here with Matthews and Rojas moving to the bullpen, as those two are the pair I think most likely to be relievers long-term. With the few million dollars we had left over, I chose to upgrade our bench RHH OF from Austin Martin to Randal Grichuk. With a 124 career wRC+ against LHP (including a preposterous 181 in 2026) Grichuk would provide considerable thump to the middle of the order and be a much greater threat in the box than Martin. He is also an imposing enough hitter against lefties that it would be tempting to pinch hit him against tough lefty relievers in place of a guy like Kody Clemens or Brooks Lee. Twins manager, Derek Shelton, could then reshuffle the defensive alignment with Ryan Kreidler or Victor Caratini to make it work. Overall, that spot on the roster is meant for one thing - hitting left handed pitching. Grichuk does that much better than Martin and he would be a sensible upgrade if they have the money to spare. What do you think of these plans? Is there anything you would do differently?

We are now a week away from the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline and the Twins plans remain as unclear as possible. On the one hand, after beating the Athletics 11-8 on Sunday, the Twins sit 53-54 and only a game out of a playoff spot. Those factors give the Twins a 32.7% playoff chance (per Fangraphs) as they head into their day off on Monday. On the other hand, this is a Twins team that remains below .500 late into the season and still appears unlikely to make real noise in the postseason. Additionally, the Twins have several players nearing the end of their team control that might make sense to cash in for future value. Regardless of which route they take, the Twins performance (and that of their AL competitors) will weight heavily into their approach come deadline day. Without a crystal ball or insider information, it is impossible to know what this front office and GM, Jeremy Zoll, plan to do. Rather than speculate, here are the 4 reasonable paths I could see this Twins team taking, depending on how they perform and how aggressive they want to be: Option #1: Sell This is an option Twins fans are familiar with. After trading away a major league record 11 players off their active roster at the 2025 Trade Deadline, it would hardly be surprising to see the Twins prioritize future value over competing in 2026. Loop in the fact Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, and Pablo Lopez (among others) are all set to reach free agency within the next 18 months and you could argue it makes more and more sense for this team to complete the teardown and prioritize long term success. However, Tom Pohlad has consistently stated he aims for this team to be competitive and that winning is the way to rebuild trust with a disgruntled fanbase. Would he have the appetite for trading away significant pieces from a surprisingly fun Twins team, playing meaningful baseball late in the year? Time will tell. If the Twins were to take this path, they have several players who would be in demand with rival teams, with Joe Ryan being the most obvious trade option. He is a ready made ace and comes with 1.5 years of inexpensive team control. Teams may be wary of his second half splits and proclivity to giving up the long ball, but Ryan has been one of the better pitchers in the American League for the past 3-4 seasons. Front office leaders would be willing to back up the Brinks truck for a pitcher of his caliber, with the idea of him throwing big innings for them in October. To find a comparable pitcher moved at the deadline, you have to go back to 2022, when the Seattle Mariners traded for 1.5 years of control of Luis Castillo. In doing so, they gave up the #11 prospect in baseball, Noevi Marte, as well as Edwin Arroyo (their #3 prospect), Levi Stoudt (#5), and Andrew Moore. Those prospects have largely failed to live up to expectations, but was still a massive haul for the Reds at the time. Ryan Jeffers is another clear trade candidate in this situation. He has broken out with 160 wRC+ across 46 games in 2026. This marks a clear step above the already excellent 112 wRC+ he has produced in his career, a mark about 20 points higher than league average for a catcher. Given the lack of positive offensive talent at the position and how infrequently they are available at the deadline, teams would be lined up to take a shot at Jeffers. We have already heard teams like the Yankees and Rays have interest, with others likely in play as well. He does only come with 2 months of team control remaining, but it is not hard to imagine a bidding war pushing the price up to a late top-100 prospect for his services. Outside of those two, the value drops off considerably. Trevor Larnach has been great against RHP this season, but remains a defensively stretched platoon outfielder. He has another year of team control in 2027, but it is unlikely to be all that valuable to an acquiring team, as Larnach will be due another sizeable raise in arbitration. In the best case scenario, a team may be willing to move a 45 FV prospect with some question marks for Larnach, but a 40 FV would be a better bet. Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers are other veteran players teams would have some level of interest in. However, the Twins would be unlikely to get much more than salary relief for any of these guys. The Twins could also look to move Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner if they decide they are no longer in their plans. Lewis would definitely have some value, but not as much as his name value and draft pedigree would suggest. Wallner would be an interesting post-hype flier for a team with ABs to spare, but is the kind of player that often is traded for very little. Similarly, the Twins could deal Kody Clemens on the heels of his breakout campaign, but how much would clubs really give up for a 30 year-old Clemens in his first productive season? Overall, the takeaway is that even a selling Twins team would look much different than last deadline. Outside of Ryan and Jeffers, there simply is not a whole lot to deal from this roster. Option #2: Buy and Sell This option sounds great in theory, but is incredibly difficult to execute in practice. The main issue with this approach is that the same teams looking to acquire help at the deadline are also hesitant to give up their own productive big leaguers. This means there are very rarely need-for-need swaps midseason and teams looking to buy and sell have to line up multiple trades to do so. For example, the Twins may not be able to deal a player like Jeffers directly for a controllable reliever. Instead, to functionally complete a Jeffers for reliever swap, they would need to trade prospects for a reliever and subsequently trade Jeffers for prospects. This gets tricky because it requires the Twins to find a deal that brings back prospects they like as much or more than the ones they are giving up, while also finding a MLB reliever they feel is a worthy swap for Jeffers. It isn't impossible, but can be very difficult to accomplish. In this scenario, I could see the Twins moving off of guys like Larnach, Jeffers, or Bell as a way to bring in some additional pitching help. Losing Larnach's bat would hurt the lineup, but the Twins have top prospects, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins, waiting in the wings to replace him. The same goes for Bell, who could be replaced by any number of guys circling through the DH spot, including potentially Larnach. Jeffers does not have as direct of a replacement, but we saw this team succeed with the combo of Caratini and Alex Jackson, while Jeffers was out with a broken hamate bone. This would be a clear downgrade, but Jeffers would bring back the type of prospect return to meaningfully upgrade elsewhere on the roster. Given the moving pieces involved, I think this scenario is the most unlikely for the Twins to pull off. However, it is one that makes sense on paper and the Twins will undoubtedly explore it leading into the deadline. Option #3: Light Buyers Now begins the fun part of this exercise, what happens if the Twins try to win this year? Most likely, this is not a club that will be looking to make major additions. In this scenario, the Twins instead focus on fortifying the known weaknesses on the roster with quality veterans, rather than superstars. The clearest hole for the front office to address remains the bullpen. The current group has posted the 3rd worst xFIP in baseball, with little in the way of upside or stability behind Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gomez. Luckily, this would be a very straightforward area to address at the deadline. We very often see veteran, rental middle-relievers be traded for underwhelming returns at this time of year. For a Twins team currently throwing Travis Adams and Kody Funderburk in medium to high leverage situations, a veteran middle reliever looks like 2016 Andrew Miller. So who would they target? Again, this is an area where it's best not to speculate what they will do. Instead, just know that there are 2 or 3 dozen relievers conceivably available at this deadline that would be an upgrade for the Twins. If you are interested in who I would be pursuing, take a look at my article from last week. Regardless of who the exact name is, this plan would entail the Twins adding two relievers: one who can slot in with Tommy Nance in middle relief and another who could join Morris/Gomez in the late innings. Additionally, they could look to add a 4th or 5th starter. This Twins rotation as a whole is in unexpectedly poor shape. The group that was supposed to be the strongest part of this roster now has Lopez, Mick Abel, and David Festa all out for the season, Zebby Matthews struggling in the rotation, and Connor Prielipp blowing past his career high in innings pitched. This leaves the Twins 20th in baseball in rotation xFIP and perilously thin on depth if they sustain further injuries. This team could really use another playoff starter, but I would imagine the prices are higher than they'd like to pay for rental mid-rotation arms. These kind of pitchers often command 45+ FV prospects, which would be tough for a sub-500 Twins team to give up for 2 months of a starter. If they did decide to pony up the prospect capital, all of Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Freddy Peralta, and Robbie Ray could be possibilities. Otherwise, lower-wattage options to round out the rotation include Brady Singer, Patrick Sandoval, and Walker Buehler. If the Twins want to reinforce the position player group, a right handed outfielder or a bounce-back SS option like Anthony Volpe could be other options for the Twins to consider. However, I would expect the majority of their moves to come on the other side of the ball. Option #4: Aggressive Buyers Let's get crazy - If the Twins and Tom Pohlad want to make some headlines and win ballgames, this is the path to take. Ultimately, this scenario looks a lot like the one above, but adding in a big swing for a controllable star. For a team that is leading the American League in runs scored, a marquee addition should probably come in the rotation. I could see the Twins kicking the tires on a long-term SS like CJ Abrams or Zach Neto, but ultimately the offense is doing it's job and there are bigger needs elsewhere. For controllable starters likely to be available at the deadline, it comes down to 3 main options: Reid Detmers In my opinion, Detmers is the most exciting option for the Twins. A former 1st round pick, he has shown flashes of dominance, but been inconsistent. Even in the bad times, Detmers still looks the part of a capable 4th starter, but the upside is significant and could be coming to fruition. This season, Detmers has the 24th best xFIP among qualified starters and has punched out over 27% of batters faced. For Twins fans thinking this profile sounds familiar, it should! Just a year ago, The Twins traded for another inconsistent starter in Taj Bradley, who has broken out to a near 27% K-rate and the 35th best xFIP in the league. Like Bradley, Detmers is also controllable, with arbitration eligibility through the 2028 season. Adding him to this team would both reinforce an undermanned team for 2026, but also add to a potentially loaded 2027 rotation alongside a healthy Lopez, Ryan, and Bradley. Having another above average starter for the long term would also allow the Twins to more easily move starters like Matthews and Festa to bullpen roles they're better suited for. The reason this trade is pretty unlikely to happen is the prospect capital required to acquire Detmers. In all likelihood, a deal would require at least one of the Twins top 6-7 prospects and multiple of their top 20. The Angels are rumored to be seeking young catching, but would the Twins be willing to flip teenaged catcher Eduardo Tait alongside other top talent? Additionally, unless the Angels don't believe Detmers' breakout is sustainable, they have little reason to trade him for less than a king's ransom. If he continues to pitch well, his value will only rise as teams are more and more confident he is a top of the rotation arm. Jose Soriano Yet another Angel to be mentioned, Soriano is also another guy who has broken out in 2026. He has not maintained his blistering start to the season, but Soriano still has a the 28th best xFIP in the league and, like Detmers, is controllable through 2028. The main knock on Soriano has been his command. For his career, he has a 10.8% walk rate, including 11.2% in 2026. However, the free passes haven't killed him due to his extreme groundball tendencies, posting an absurd 59% GB rate in his career. In 2026, that number is down to 51.9%, but still good for the 4th highest GB% in baseball. While the groundball rate has gone down a but, it has been replaced with increased strikeout ability, with Soriano currently holding a career high 24.9% K-rate. If he were ever to find the strikezone more consistently, it's easy to see him looking like something approaching prime Sandy Alcantara. Much of what was said about Detmers price tag also applies to Soriano. He is going to be quite expensive and the Twins would be making a bet on a newfound level of production. That being said, Soriano would be clear upgrade to the current rotation and I reckon he would be at least slightly cheaper to acquire than Detmers. However, it is also fair to question Soriano's fit as a groundballer pitching in front of a porous Twins defense. Perhaps it gets better with a promotion of Kaelen Culpepper, but this infield has been one of the worst in baseball this season and would likely be exposed playing behind Soriano. Sandy Alcantara Did someone say prime Sandy Alcantara? Yeah, this isn't him, but modern day Sandy is still pretty good. This season Alcantara is leading the league in innings pitched, while posting a 4.19 xFIP. It isn't quite the quality of performance we became used to seeing from Alcantara from 2020-2022, but since 2023 Alcantara has had near a 4 xFIP every season and been among the league leaders in innings per start. This could be particularly valuable for a Twins team lacking in overall pitching depth and with many guys approaching career high workloads. Adding in a guy that can reliably go 6 or 7 innings every 5th day would have an outsized impact on an undermanned team like the Twins. Contractually, Alcantara differs significantly from the other two arms as he is finishing up a 5 year, $56 million dollar contract he signed with the Marlins in 2022. Alcantara is owed about $5.2 million the rest of this season and has a $21 million club option for 2027. Any team looking to acquire Alcantara is doing so with the idea of picking up that option, but having that money non-guaranteed does lessen the risk for the acquiring team if Alcantara suffers a significant injury. Still, Alcantara would require a significant financial investment that it's unclear the Twins would be willing to make. That being said, Tom Pohlad did make an attempt to sign Framber Valdez this offseason and has repeatedly stated a willingness to spend when the time is right. If he sees the 2026 and 2027 Twins teams as worthy of investment, this is a deal the front office could pursue. One benefit of Alcantara making significant money is that it will drive down the prospect value required to trade for him. I think it would still take at least one top-100 level prospect to pry Alcantara away from the surprisingly competitive Marlins, but definitely less overall value that the two listed above. If the Twins were to add one of the starters above and the two solid relievers, I like their odd to win the division or snag a wildcard spot. Of all of the routes available, I would like to see the Twins be aggressive buyers. Not only as a fan who wants to see action and competitiveness, but also thinking rationally about where this roster is at in the competitive cycle. For 2026 and 2027, the Twins still have the best of their previous core players on the squad (Buxton, Ryan, Lopez, and Jeffers), but also have young, exciting talent both in the majors and soon to debut. This combination of veteran production and cheap, young upside is what every front office is striving for. It's at these points where we generally see team push the chips in and try to win. I'm not saying this is a roster that needs to trade for a rental to put them over the top. Let's be real - this is not the 2016 Cubs looking for the finishing touch. However, adding a guy who is controllable for the next several years would help them take a crack at October, without completely mortgaging the future. This is especially true if the Twins were able to put together a package with some of their talent further from the Majors. If they were able to keep their promising group of AAA position players together, while cashing in guys like Tait, Riley Quick, Dasan Hill, etc. for impact pitching, the next few years could be really exciting. If you were Jeremy Zoll, what moves would you make? If you enjoyed reading this article, please subscribe and listen to my podcast "Matt and Eric Talk Twins" for more of this kind of coverage!

It's that time of year again - The weather is hot, the baseball is contentious, and the winds of trade are in the air! This year, with a record of 49-49 and currently holding the 3rd AL Wild Card spot, the Twins appear to be taking on the role of contender. Like many of their American League foe, the Twins have a clear weakness on their roster, the bullpen. The group that was widely panned heading into the year has lived up to the fanbase's subpar expectations, ranking among the bottom 3 bullpens in baseball in ERA, SIERA, xFIP, and BB%. While this group has certainly had its problems, there have also been clear bright spots. Andrew Morris has broken out to the tune of a 3.26 ERA and 1.1 fWAR in the season's first half, with signs of further improvement lately. Additionally, low-wattage pickup, Yoendrys Gomez, has emerged as the Twins' de facto closer with a similarly sterling 1.65 ERA (although with signs of impending regression). The Twins also struck early, swinging a mid-level trade for veteran reliever Tommy Nance. The 35-year-old sports a career 3.69 FIP over 161.1 big league innings. While he may not be the saviour of this subpar group, he does plenty to stabilize the floor. Beyond that group, there is little in the way of either reliability or upside. While Twins fans may be able to dream on the long-term potential of Kendry Rojas as a late-inning arm, it appears that isn't in the cards for 2026 as the Twins need his length as a depth starting option. On a related note, the injuries to Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel, and David Festa have forced the Twins to use Zebby Matthews exclusively as a starter this year, to mixed results. All that to say, while the Twins have an abundance of theoretical starting options that could roll over into the bullpen, injuries have prevented that from happening. This leaves a trade as the most likely option to improve this group. Luckily, relief pitchers are the position group most often traded at the deadline and can often be acquired for a relatively low cost. The cost portion of this discussion is important. While I am excited about this Twins team and believe they have a chance at a wild-card berth, we have to be realistic about their chances of truly contending. After all, this is still a .500 team, only a year removed from the largest deadline sell-off in baseball history. They are exceedingly unlikely to break the bank on impact talent, and the guys they acquire will likely not make any headlines. If the trade deadline were a supermarket, the Twins would be buying ground beef (middle relievers) rather than Wagyu steak (Mason Miller). Even humble ground beef can quench a hunger, and here are my favorite low-cost relievers for the Twins to feast on: Caleb Ferguson Ferguson has made a long career as a dependable, left-handed setup man. While often going unheralded, he was a key part of the 2018-2023 Dodger bullpens. Since then, he has bounced around the league, but not due to any falloff in his performance. In fact, over the last two seasons, Ferguson has maintained an ERA and FIP better than his career averages, despite a decrease in strikeout rate. While a diminished strikeout rate can be a death sentence for a late-inning reliever, it hasn't much bothered Ferguson because of his ability to limit walks and induce weak groundballs. Given Cincinnati's current place in the standings and Ferguson's affordable, 1-year deal, he seems one of the likeliest candidates to be dealt by August 3rd. He may not be a primary piece in most bullpens, but Ferguson could fill the void of primary lefty / 7th inning man left behind by the injured Anthony Banda. Similar names to consider for the rental lefty role include AJ Minter, Brooks Raley, Brent Suter, or (on the high-end) Adrian Morejon. Jeremiah Estrada Estrada is a tier above Ferguson in a couple of ways. First, he is a much higher-powered arm, with a career 3.39 FIP and 34.2% K-rate. Additionally, Estrada is also only 27 years old and has 3 more years of control beyond 2026. Now, you might be asking, "Why would the Padres be willing to trade this level of young arm?". The reason lies in the way Padres General Manager, AJ Preller, has constructed his team. Over the last few years, the Padres have relentlessly pursued top talent in the name of winning. That approach has been largely successful, but it leaves the club an aging and expensive roster, with clear weaknesses and limited prospect capital to address them. Chief among their issues is overall offensive production. As a team, the Padres have a collective 89 wRC+ and rank 29th in baseball in runs scored. Among the issues on offense are LF and DH, where they are primarily starting the veteran stopgaps Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar. Perhaps they would be willing to deal Estrada from their deep bullpen mix to add a more talented option from the Twins stable of left handed hitting OF. Mark Leiter Leiter is an intriguing guy to analyze. On one hand, over the last 3 years he has improved his fastball velocity and maintained above average strikeout and walk rates. He has also done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, on the way to posting FIP, xFIP, and xERAs in the mid-3's. However, in each season, his run prevention has lingered roughly a full run higher, with ERAs in the mid-4's. For one season, having an ERA much different from the underlying numbers is common. Doing that for 3 straight years and across almost 140 innings? Much less so. Regardless of why his perfomance has lagged behind expectations, it will serve to tamp down the type of return the Athletics can expect for him. Perhaps this is a good chance for the Twins to swoop in on an undervalued rental and turn him into a useful part of the bullpen down the stretch. Name a Rays Reliever The kings of mixing buying with selling at the Trade Deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves in a similar position this season. Despite having the best record in the American League, the Rays are extremely reliant on three hitters (Aranda, Caminero, and Diaz) for all of their offensive production. Compare this to a bullpen that seems to always be stocked with cheap and nasty options, and it seems like a roster prime for reorganizing. The Twins, on the other hand, have no shortage of major league ready position players and, as covered earlier, a dearth of options in the bullpen. Whether it be a swap of a veteran bat like Trevor Larnach or Ryan Jeffers, or a more controllable option like Alan Roden or Matt Wallner, the Twins would likely be interested in dealing from a surplus to see what kind of arm they could pry away from the Rays. The one caveat for this trade option - the Rays have plenty of prospect capital to trade for a bat without dealing from their big league roster. For a team firmly in contention, perhaps they want to keep their group of arms intact. If you enjoyed reading this article, please subscribe and listen to my podcast "Matt and Eric Talk Twins" for more of this kind of coverage!

I think there is a very slim chance Cholowsky falls to the Twins at #3, but they have to be happy taking one of Lackey/Cholowsky/Emerson regardless. Whomever it is will easily slot in among their best prospects and likely be a top 50 prospect in baseball. With that said, if Cholowsky is available, it would be an absolute godsend for this Twins team that desperately needs IF certainty, especially up the middle.

At this point, I think the Twins need to see what they have in the young guys. It is a tough balancing act given their unexpected competitiveness and Larnach/Clemens success this year + Bell of late. However, it's unlikely any of those guys are in their future plans and would likely have some value at the deadline. If they have the ability to unload them for something of use elsewhere on the roster and allocate that playing time to Jenkins/Erod/Roden/etc, that should be the route they take.