It's that time of year again - The weather is hot, the baseball is contentious, and the winds of trade are in the air!
This year, with a record of 49-49 and currently holding the 3rd AL Wild Card spot, the Twins appear to be taking on the role of contender. Like many of their American League foe, the Twins have a clear weakness on their roster, the bullpen. The group that was widely panned heading into the year has lived up to the fanbase's subpar expectations, ranking among the bottom 3 bullpens in baseball in ERA, SIERA, xFIP, and BB%.
While this group has certainly had its problems, there have also been clear bright spots. Andrew Morris has broken out to the tune of a 3.26 ERA and 1.1 fWAR in the season's first half, with signs of further improvement lately. Additionally, low-wattage pickup, Yoendrys Gomez, has emerged as the Twins' de facto closer with a similarly sterling 1.65 ERA (although with signs of impending regression). The Twins also struck early, swinging a mid-level trade for veteran reliever Tommy Nance. The 35-year-old sports a career 3.69 FIP over 161.1 big league innings. While he may not be the saviour of this subpar group, he does plenty to stabilize the floor.
Beyond that group, there is little in the way of either reliability or upside. While Twins fans may be able to dream on the long-term potential of Kendry Rojas as a late-inning arm, it appears that isn't in the cards for 2026 as the Twins need his length as a depth starting option. On a related note, the injuries to Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel, and David Festa have forced the Twins to use Zebby Matthews exclusively as a starter this year, to mixed results. All that to say, while the Twins have an abundance of theoretical starting options that could roll over into the bullpen, injuries have prevented that from happening.
This leaves a trade as the most likely option to improve this group. Luckily, relief pitchers are the position group most often traded at the deadline and can often be acquired for a relatively low cost. The cost portion of this discussion is important. While I am excited about this Twins team and believe they have a chance at a wild-card berth, we have to be realistic about their chances of truly contending. After all, this is still a .500 team, only a year removed from the largest deadline sell-off in baseball history. They are exceedingly unlikely to break the bank on impact talent, and the guys they acquire will likely not make any headlines. If the trade deadline were a supermarket, the Twins would be buying ground beef (middle relievers) rather than Wagyu steak (Mason Miller).
Even humble ground beef can quench a hunger, and here are my favorite low-cost relievers for the Twins to feast on:
Caleb Ferguson
Ferguson has made a long career as a dependable, left-handed setup man. While often going unheralded, he was a key part of the 2018-2023 Dodger bullpens. Since then, he has bounced around the league, but not due to any falloff in his performance. In fact, over the last two seasons, Ferguson has maintained an ERA and FIP better than his career averages, despite a decrease in strikeout rate. While a diminished strikeout rate can be a death sentence for a late-inning reliever, it hasn't much bothered Ferguson because of his ability to limit walks and induce weak groundballs. Given Cincinnati's current place in the standings and Ferguson's affordable, 1-year deal, he seems one of the likeliest candidates to be dealt by August 3rd. He may not be a primary piece in most bullpens, but Ferguson could fill the void of primary lefty / 7th inning man left behind by the injured Anthony Banda. Similar names to consider for the rental lefty role include AJ Minter, Brooks Raley, Brent Suter, or (on the high-end) Adrian Morejon.
Jeremiah Estrada
Estrada is a tier above Ferguson in a couple of ways. First, he is a much higher-powered arm, with a career 3.39 FIP and 34.2% K-rate. Additionally, Estrada is also only 27 years old and has 3 more years of control beyond 2026. Now, you might be asking, "Why would the Padres be willing to trade this level of young arm?". The reason lies in the way Padres General Manager, AJ Preller, has constructed his team. Over the last few years, the Padres have relentlessly pursued top talent in the name of winning. That approach has been largely successful, but it leaves the club an aging and expensive roster, with clear weaknesses and limited prospect capital to address them. Chief among their issues is overall offensive production. As a team, the Padres have a collective 89 wRC+ and rank 29th in baseball in runs scored. Among the issues on offense are LF and DH, where they are primarily starting the veteran stopgaps Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar. Perhaps they would be willing to deal Estrada from their deep bullpen mix to add a more talented option from the Twins stable of left handed hitting OF.
Mark Leiter
Leiter is an intriguing guy to analyze. On one hand, over the last 3 years he has improved his fastball velocity and maintained above average strikeout and walk rates. He has also done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, on the way to posting FIP, xFIP, and xERAs in the mid-3's. However, in each season, his run prevention has lingered roughly a full run higher, with ERAs in the mid-4's. For one season, having an ERA much different from the underlying numbers is common. Doing that for 3 straight years and across almost 140 innings? Much less so. Regardless of why his perfomance has lagged behind expectations, it will serve to tamp down the type of return the Athletics can expect for him. Perhaps this is a good chance for the Twins to swoop in on an undervalued rental and turn him into a useful part of the bullpen down the stretch.
Name a Rays Reliever
The kings of mixing buying with selling at the Trade Deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves in a similar position this season. Despite having the best record in the American League, the Rays are extremely reliant on three hitters (Aranda, Caminero, and Diaz) for all of their offensive production. Compare this to a bullpen that seems to always be stocked with cheap and nasty options, and it seems like a roster prime for reorganizing. The Twins, on the other hand, have no shortage of major league ready position players and, as covered earlier, a dearth of options in the bullpen. Whether it be a swap of a veteran bat like Trevor Larnach or Ryan Jeffers, or a more controllable option like Alan Roden or Matt Wallner, the Twins would likely be interested in dealing from a surplus to see what kind of arm they could pry away from the Rays. The one caveat for this trade option - the Rays have plenty of prospect capital to trade for a bat without dealing from their big league roster. For a team firmly in contention, perhaps they want to keep their group of arms intact.
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