Matt Krepp

We are now a week away from the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline and the Twins plans remain as unclear as possible. On the one hand, after beating the Athletics 11-8 on Sunday, the Twins sit 53-54 and only a game out of a playoff spot. Those factors give the Twins a 32.7% playoff chance (per Fangraphs) as they head into their day off on Monday. On the other hand, this is a Twins team that remains below .500 late into the season and still appears unlikely to make real noise in the postseason. Additionally, the Twins have several players nearing the end of their team control that might make sense to cash in for future value. Regardless of which route they take, the Twins performance (and that of their AL competitors) will weight heavily into their approach come deadline day. Without a crystal ball or insider information, it is impossible to know what this front office and GM, Jeremy Zoll, plan to do. Rather than speculate, here are the 4 reasonable paths I could see this Twins team taking, depending on how they perform and how aggressive they want to be: Option #1: Sell This is an option Twins fans are familiar with. After trading away a major league record 11 players off their active roster at the 2025 Trade Deadline, it would hardly be surprising to see the Twins prioritize future value over competing in 2026. Loop in the fact Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, and Pablo Lopez (among others) are all set to reach free agency within the next 18 months and you could argue it makes more and more sense for this team to complete the teardown and prioritize long term success. However, Tom Pohlad has consistently stated he aims for this team to be competitive and that winning is the way to rebuild trust with a disgruntled fanbase. Would he have the appetite for trading away significant pieces from a surprisingly fun Twins team, playing meaningful baseball late in the year? Time will tell. If the Twins were to take this path, they have several players who would be in demand with rival teams, with Joe Ryan being the most obvious trade option. He is a ready made ace and comes with 1.5 years of inexpensive team control. Teams may be wary of his second half splits and proclivity to giving up the long ball, but Ryan has been one of the better pitchers in the American League for the past 3-4 seasons. Front office leaders would be willing to back up the Brinks truck for a pitcher of his caliber, with the idea of him throwing big innings for them in October. To find a comparable pitcher moved at the deadline, you have to go back to 2022, when the Seattle Mariners traded for 1.5 years of control of Luis Castillo. In doing so, they gave up the #11 prospect in baseball, Noevi Marte, as well as Edwin Arroyo (their #3 prospect), Levi Stoudt (#5), and Andrew Moore. Those prospects have largely failed to live up to expectations, but was still a massive haul for the Reds at the time. Ryan Jeffers is another clear trade candidate in this situation. He has broken out with 160 wRC+ across 46 games in 2026. This marks a clear step above the already excellent 112 wRC+ he has produced in his career, a mark about 20 points higher than league average for a catcher. Given the lack of positive offensive talent at the position and how infrequently they are available at the deadline, teams would be lined up to take a shot at Jeffers. We have already heard teams like the Yankees and Rays have interest, with others likely in play as well. He does only come with 2 months of team control remaining, but it is not hard to imagine a bidding war pushing the price up to a late top-100 prospect for his services. Outside of those two, the value drops off considerably. Trevor Larnach has been great against RHP this season, but remains a defensively stretched platoon outfielder. He has another year of team control in 2027, but it is unlikely to be all that valuable to an acquiring team, as Larnach will be due another sizeable raise in arbitration. In the best case scenario, a team may be willing to move a 45 FV prospect with some question marks for Larnach, but a 40 FV would be a better bet. Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers are other veteran players teams would have some level of interest in. However, the Twins would be unlikely to get much more than salary relief for any of these guys. The Twins could also look to move Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner if they decide they are no longer in their plans. Lewis would definitely have some value, but not as much as his name value and draft pedigree would suggest. Wallner would be an interesting post-hype flier for a team with ABs to spare, but is the kind of player that often is traded for very little. Similarly, the Twins could deal Kody Clemens on the heels of his breakout campaign, but how much would clubs really give up for a 30 year-old Clemens in his first productive season? Overall, the takeaway is that even a selling Twins team would look much different than last deadline. Outside of Ryan and Jeffers, there simply is not a whole lot to deal from this roster. Option #2: Buy and Sell This option sounds great in theory, but is incredibly difficult to execute in practice. The main issue with this approach is that the same teams looking to acquire help at the deadline are also hesitant to give up their own productive big leaguers. This means there are very rarely need-for-need swaps midseason and teams looking to buy and sell have to line up multiple trades to do so. For example, the Twins may not be able to deal a player like Jeffers directly for a controllable reliever. Instead, to functionally complete a Jeffers for reliever swap, they would need to trade prospects for a reliever and subsequently trade Jeffers for prospects. This gets tricky because it requires the Twins to find a deal that brings back prospects they like as much or more than the ones they are giving up, while also finding a MLB reliever they feel is a worthy swap for Jeffers. It isn't impossible, but can be very difficult to accomplish. In this scenario, I could see the Twins moving off of guys like Larnach, Jeffers, or Bell as a way to bring in some additional pitching help. Losing Larnach's bat would hurt the lineup, but the Twins have top prospects, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins, waiting in the wings to replace him. The same goes for Bell, who could be replaced by any number of guys circling through the DH spot, including potentially Larnach. Jeffers does not have as direct of a replacement, but we saw this team succeed with the combo of Caratini and Alex Jackson, while Jeffers was out with a broken hamate bone. This would be a clear downgrade, but Jeffers would bring back the type of prospect return to meaningfully upgrade elsewhere on the roster. Given the moving pieces involved, I think this scenario is the most unlikely for the Twins to pull off. However, it is one that makes sense on paper and the Twins will undoubtedly explore it leading into the deadline. Option #3: Light Buyers Now begins the fun part of this exercise, what happens if the Twins try to win this year? Most likely, this is not a club that will be looking to make major additions. In this scenario, the Twins instead focus on fortifying the known weaknesses on the roster with quality veterans, rather than superstars. The clearest hole for the front office to address remains the bullpen. The current group has posted the 3rd worst xFIP in baseball, with little in the way of upside or stability behind Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gomez. Luckily, this would be a very straightforward area to address at the deadline. We very often see veteran, rental middle-relievers be traded for underwhelming returns at this time of year. For a Twins team currently throwing Travis Adams and Kody Funderburk in medium to high leverage situations, a veteran middle reliever looks like 2016 Andrew Miller. So who would they target? Again, this is an area where it's best not to speculate what they will do. Instead, just know that there are 2 or 3 dozen relievers conceivably available at this deadline that would be an upgrade for the Twins. If you are interested in who I would be pursuing, take a look at my article from last week. Regardless of who the exact name is, this plan would entail the Twins adding two relievers: one who can slot in with Tommy Nance in middle relief and another who could join Morris/Gomez in the late innings. Additionally, they could look to add a 4th or 5th starter. This Twins rotation as a whole is in unexpectedly poor shape. The group that was supposed to be the strongest part of this roster now has Lopez, Mick Abel, and David Festa all out for the season, Zebby Matthews struggling in the rotation, and Connor Prielipp blowing past his career high in innings pitched. This leaves the Twins 20th in baseball in rotation xFIP and perilously thin on depth if they sustain further injuries. This team could really use another playoff starter, but I would imagine the prices are higher than they'd like to pay for rental mid-rotation arms. These kind of pitchers often command 45+ FV prospects, which would be tough for a sub-500 Twins team to give up for 2 months of a starter. If they did decide to pony up the prospect capital, all of Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Freddy Peralta, and Robbie Ray could be possibilities. Otherwise, lower-wattage options to round out the rotation include Brady Singer, Patrick Sandoval, and Walker Buehler. If the Twins want to reinforce the position player group, a right handed outfielder or a bounce-back SS option like Anthony Volpe could be other options for the Twins to consider. However, I would expect the majority of their moves to come on the other side of the ball. Option #4: Aggressive Buyers Let's get crazy - If the Twins and Tom Pohlad want to make some headlines and win ballgames, this is the path to take. Ultimately, this scenario looks a lot like the one above, but adding in a big swing for a controllable star. For a team that is leading the American League in runs scored, a marquee addition should probably come in the rotation. I could see the Twins kicking the tires on a long-term SS like CJ Abrams or Zach Neto, but ultimately the offense is doing it's job and there are bigger needs elsewhere. For controllable starters likely to be available at the deadline, it comes down to 3 main options: Reid Detmers In my opinion, Detmers is the most exciting option for the Twins. A former 1st round pick, he has shown flashes of dominance, but been inconsistent. Even in the bad times, Detmers still looks the part of a capable 4th starter, but the upside is significant and could be coming to fruition. This season, Detmers has the 24th best xFIP among qualified starters and has punched out over 27% of batters faced. For Twins fans thinking this profile sounds familiar, it should! Just a year ago, The Twins traded for another inconsistent starter in Taj Bradley, who has broken out to a near 27% K-rate and the 35th best xFIP in the league. Like Bradley, Detmers is also controllable, with arbitration eligibility through the 2028 season. Adding him to this team would both reinforce an undermanned team for 2026, but also add to a potentially loaded 2027 rotation alongside a healthy Lopez, Ryan, and Bradley. Having another above average starter for the long term would also allow the Twins to more easily move starters like Matthews and Festa to bullpen roles they're better suited for. The reason this trade is pretty unlikely to happen is the prospect capital required to acquire Detmers. In all likelihood, a deal would require at least one of the Twins top 6-7 prospects and multiple of their top 20. The Angels are rumored to be seeking young catching, but would the Twins be willing to flip teenaged catcher Eduardo Tait alongside other top talent? Additionally, unless the Angels don't believe Detmers' breakout is sustainable, they have little reason to trade him for less than a king's ransom. If he continues to pitch well, his value will only rise as teams are more and more confident he is a top of the rotation arm. Jose Soriano Yet another Angel to be mentioned, Soriano is also another guy who has broken out in 2026. He has not maintained his blistering start to the season, but Soriano still has a the 28th best xFIP in the league and, like Detmers, is controllable through 2028. The main knock on Soriano has been his command. For his career, he has a 10.8% walk rate, including 11.2% in 2026. However, the free passes haven't killed him due to his extreme groundball tendencies, posting an absurd 59% GB rate in his career. In 2026, that number is down to 51.9%, but still good for the 4th highest GB% in baseball. While the groundball rate has gone down a but, it has been replaced with increased strikeout ability, with Soriano currently holding a career high 24.9% K-rate. If he were ever to find the strikezone more consistently, it's easy to see him looking like something approaching prime Sandy Alcantara. Much of what was said about Detmers price tag also applies to Soriano. He is going to be quite expensive and the Twins would be making a bet on a newfound level of production. That being said, Soriano would be clear upgrade to the current rotation and I reckon he would be at least slightly cheaper to acquire than Detmers. However, it is also fair to question Soriano's fit as a groundballer pitching in front of a porous Twins defense. Perhaps it gets better with a promotion of Kaelen Culpepper, but this infield has been one of the worst in baseball this season and would likely be exposed playing behind Soriano. Sandy Alcantara Did someone say prime Sandy Alcantara? Yeah, this isn't him, but modern day Sandy is still pretty good. This season Alcantara is leading the league in innings pitched, while posting a 4.19 xFIP. It isn't quite the quality of performance we became used to seeing from Alcantara from 2020-2022, but since 2023 Alcantara has had near a 4 xFIP every season and been among the league leaders in innings per start. This could be particularly valuable for a Twins team lacking in overall pitching depth and with many guys approaching career high workloads. Adding in a guy that can reliably go 6 or 7 innings every 5th day would have an outsized impact on an undermanned team like the Twins. Contractually, Alcantara differs significantly from the other two arms as he is finishing up a 5 year, $56 million dollar contract he signed with the Marlins in 2022. Alcantara is owed about $5.2 million the rest of this season and has a $21 million club option for 2027. Any team looking to acquire Alcantara is doing so with the idea of picking up that option, but having that money non-guaranteed does lessen the risk for the acquiring team if Alcantara suffers a significant injury. Still, Alcantara would require a significant financial investment that it's unclear the Twins would be willing to make. That being said, Tom Pohlad did make an attempt to sign Framber Valdez this offseason and has repeatedly stated a willingness to spend when the time is right. If he sees the 2026 and 2027 Twins teams as worthy of investment, this is a deal the front office could pursue. One benefit of Alcantara making significant money is that it will drive down the prospect value required to trade for him. I think it would still take at least one top-100 level prospect to pry Alcantara away from the surprisingly competitive Marlins, but definitely less overall value that the two listed above. If the Twins were to add one of the starters above and the two solid relievers, I like their odd to win the division or snag a wildcard spot. Of all of the routes available, I would like to see the Twins be aggressive buyers. Not only as a fan who wants to see action and competitiveness, but also thinking rationally about where this roster is at in the competitive cycle. For 2026 and 2027, the Twins still have the best of their previous core players on the squad (Buxton, Ryan, Lopez, and Jeffers), but also have young, exciting talent both in the majors and soon to debut. This combination of veteran production and cheap, young upside is what every front office is striving for. It's at these points where we generally see team push the chips in and try to win. I'm not saying this is a roster that needs to trade for a rental to put them over the top. Let's be real - this is not the 2016 Cubs looking for the finishing touch. However, adding a guy who is controllable for the next several years would help them take a crack at October, without completely mortgaging the future. This is especially true if the Twins were able to put together a package with some of their talent further from the Majors. If they were able to keep their promising group of AAA position players together, while cashing in guys like Tait, Riley Quick, Dasan Hill, etc. for impact pitching, the next few years could be really exciting. If you were Jeremy Zoll, what moves would you make? If you enjoyed reading this article, please subscribe and listen to my podcast "Matt and Eric Talk Twins" for more of this kind of coverage!

It's that time of year again - The weather is hot, the baseball is contentious, and the winds of trade are in the air! This year, with a record of 49-49 and currently holding the 3rd AL Wild Card spot, the Twins appear to be taking on the role of contender. Like many of their American League foe, the Twins have a clear weakness on their roster, the bullpen. The group that was widely panned heading into the year has lived up to the fanbase's subpar expectations, ranking among the bottom 3 bullpens in baseball in ERA, SIERA, xFIP, and BB%. While this group has certainly had its problems, there have also been clear bright spots. Andrew Morris has broken out to the tune of a 3.26 ERA and 1.1 fWAR in the season's first half, with signs of further improvement lately. Additionally, low-wattage pickup, Yoendrys Gomez, has emerged as the Twins' de facto closer with a similarly sterling 1.65 ERA (although with signs of impending regression). The Twins also struck early, swinging a mid-level trade for veteran reliever Tommy Nance. The 35-year-old sports a career 3.69 FIP over 161.1 big league innings. While he may not be the saviour of this subpar group, he does plenty to stabilize the floor. Beyond that group, there is little in the way of either reliability or upside. While Twins fans may be able to dream on the long-term potential of Kendry Rojas as a late-inning arm, it appears that isn't in the cards for 2026 as the Twins need his length as a depth starting option. On a related note, the injuries to Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel, and David Festa have forced the Twins to use Zebby Matthews exclusively as a starter this year, to mixed results. All that to say, while the Twins have an abundance of theoretical starting options that could roll over into the bullpen, injuries have prevented that from happening. This leaves a trade as the most likely option to improve this group. Luckily, relief pitchers are the position group most often traded at the deadline and can often be acquired for a relatively low cost. The cost portion of this discussion is important. While I am excited about this Twins team and believe they have a chance at a wild-card berth, we have to be realistic about their chances of truly contending. After all, this is still a .500 team, only a year removed from the largest deadline sell-off in baseball history. They are exceedingly unlikely to break the bank on impact talent, and the guys they acquire will likely not make any headlines. If the trade deadline were a supermarket, the Twins would be buying ground beef (middle relievers) rather than Wagyu steak (Mason Miller). Even humble ground beef can quench a hunger, and here are my favorite low-cost relievers for the Twins to feast on: Caleb Ferguson Ferguson has made a long career as a dependable, left-handed setup man. While often going unheralded, he was a key part of the 2018-2023 Dodger bullpens. Since then, he has bounced around the league, but not due to any falloff in his performance. In fact, over the last two seasons, Ferguson has maintained an ERA and FIP better than his career averages, despite a decrease in strikeout rate. While a diminished strikeout rate can be a death sentence for a late-inning reliever, it hasn't much bothered Ferguson because of his ability to limit walks and induce weak groundballs. Given Cincinnati's current place in the standings and Ferguson's affordable, 1-year deal, he seems one of the likeliest candidates to be dealt by August 3rd. He may not be a primary piece in most bullpens, but Ferguson could fill the void of primary lefty / 7th inning man left behind by the injured Anthony Banda. Similar names to consider for the rental lefty role include AJ Minter, Brooks Raley, Brent Suter, or (on the high-end) Adrian Morejon. Jeremiah Estrada Estrada is a tier above Ferguson in a couple of ways. First, he is a much higher-powered arm, with a career 3.39 FIP and 34.2% K-rate. Additionally, Estrada is also only 27 years old and has 3 more years of control beyond 2026. Now, you might be asking, "Why would the Padres be willing to trade this level of young arm?". The reason lies in the way Padres General Manager, AJ Preller, has constructed his team. Over the last few years, the Padres have relentlessly pursued top talent in the name of winning. That approach has been largely successful, but it leaves the club an aging and expensive roster, with clear weaknesses and limited prospect capital to address them. Chief among their issues is overall offensive production. As a team, the Padres have a collective 89 wRC+ and rank 29th in baseball in runs scored. Among the issues on offense are LF and DH, where they are primarily starting the veteran stopgaps Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar. Perhaps they would be willing to deal Estrada from their deep bullpen mix to add a more talented option from the Twins stable of left handed hitting OF. Mark Leiter Leiter is an intriguing guy to analyze. On one hand, over the last 3 years he has improved his fastball velocity and maintained above average strikeout and walk rates. He has also done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, on the way to posting FIP, xFIP, and xERAs in the mid-3's. However, in each season, his run prevention has lingered roughly a full run higher, with ERAs in the mid-4's. For one season, having an ERA much different from the underlying numbers is common. Doing that for 3 straight years and across almost 140 innings? Much less so. Regardless of why his perfomance has lagged behind expectations, it will serve to tamp down the type of return the Athletics can expect for him. Perhaps this is a good chance for the Twins to swoop in on an undervalued rental and turn him into a useful part of the bullpen down the stretch. Name a Rays Reliever The kings of mixing buying with selling at the Trade Deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves in a similar position this season. Despite having the best record in the American League, the Rays are extremely reliant on three hitters (Aranda, Caminero, and Diaz) for all of their offensive production. Compare this to a bullpen that seems to always be stocked with cheap and nasty options, and it seems like a roster prime for reorganizing. The Twins, on the other hand, have no shortage of major league ready position players and, as covered earlier, a dearth of options in the bullpen. Whether it be a swap of a veteran bat like Trevor Larnach or Ryan Jeffers, or a more controllable option like Alan Roden or Matt Wallner, the Twins would likely be interested in dealing from a surplus to see what kind of arm they could pry away from the Rays. The one caveat for this trade option - the Rays have plenty of prospect capital to trade for a bat without dealing from their big league roster. For a team firmly in contention, perhaps they want to keep their group of arms intact. If you enjoyed reading this article, please subscribe and listen to my podcast "Matt and Eric Talk Twins" for more of this kind of coverage!

I think there is a very slim chance Cholowsky falls to the Twins at #3, but they have to be happy taking one of Lackey/Cholowsky/Emerson regardless. Whomever it is will easily slot in among their best prospects and likely be a top 50 prospect in baseball. With that said, if Cholowsky is available, it would be an absolute godsend for this Twins team that desperately needs IF certainty, especially up the middle.

At this point, I think the Twins need to see what they have in the young guys. It is a tough balancing act given their unexpected competitiveness and Larnach/Clemens success this year + Bell of late. However, it's unlikely any of those guys are in their future plans and would likely have some value at the deadline. If they have the ability to unload them for something of use elsewhere on the roster and allocate that playing time to Jenkins/Erod/Roden/etc, that should be the route they take.