The Arraez Deficit: Twins Leadoff Plan is Full of Mediocre Options

[Cody Christie]

Luis Arraez, the Twins' patent-made leadoff hitter, is gone, and Twins fans will see him up close the next three days. In the post-Arraez era, Minnesota's leadoff plan is full of mediocre options.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins knew what they lost when they traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins. He was a fan favorite and high-contact hitter, an old-school throwback to a bygone era. Arraez fits nicely into the leadoff spot because he is a career .333/.384/.439 (.823) hitter against right-handed pitching. Last season, the Twins started him at leadoff in 91 games, and he got on base nearly 35% of the time. There are no perfect options to replace Arraez in the leadoff spot, so that the Twins may alter their plans in the coming weeks. 

Max Kepler served as the Twins' leadoff hitter during the opening series in Kansas City. Minnesota might have felt Kepler's spring warranted a shot in the leadoff spot because he went 13-for-34 (.382 BA) with three doubles, two home runs, and four walks. Also, the club faced three right-handed pitchers, but the left-handed hitter went 0-for-13 with a walk. However, there have been some positive signs among those numbers. Four of his nine batted balls have had an exit velocity over 95 mph, which might indicate more hits falling in upcoming games.  

During Rocco Baldelli's first season, he utilized Kepler as the leadoff hitter in 105 games. Kepler had a breakout season and combined for 28 doubles and 32 home runs from the leadoff spot. He was one of the multiple members of the Bomba Squad Twins that utilized a home run-friendly environment (aka, juiced baseballs) to post career highs in multiple categories. 

In recent seasons, Kepler has failed to replicate those totals, with MLB's baseball coming back down to earth, literally and figuratively. From 2020-22, Kepler hit .220/.314/.392 (.706) with a 98 OPS+. Kepler only started two games at leadoff in 2022 and 29 games in the first spot during the 2021 campaign. Arraez's emergence meant the Twins didn't need Kepler in the leadoff role, and the team might need to turn to other options if Kepler's hits don't start falling. 

The Twins gave Joey Gallo multiple starts in the leadoff spot this spring, so there was some discussion of him starting there against right-handed pitchers. Unlike Kepler, he struggled this spring by hitting .214/.298/.333 (.631) with two doubles and a home run. In nine big-league seasons, Gallo has never started a regular-season game in the leadoff spot, and that might have been another reason to pencil him into a different part of the line-up. If Gallo's bat heats up, the team might turn to him instead of Kepler with a righty on the mound. 

Minnesota is scheduled to face a left-handed starter for the first time on Wednesday, with the Marlins scheduled to start Jesus Luzardo. The Twins can go in multiple directions. Donovan Solano is a high-contact hitter that hit .301/.348/.422 (.770) versus lefties in 2022. Few players can match Arraez's contact skills, but Solano's nickname is "Donny Barrels" for a reason. Kyle Farmer might be an even better option, as he posted a .948 OPS versus lefties last season, including a .380 OBP. It wouldn't surprise me to see either name penciled into the leadoff spot on Wednesday. 

Moving Byron Buxton to the leadoff spot is also another option against lefties. He's been the team's most consistent hitter to start the season and has plenty of experience in the leadoff spot. During his career, he's started 83 games at leadoff and hit .240/.305/.521 (.825) with 23 doubles and 24 home runs. Buxton is a tremendous base runner, even if the club doesn't have him steal bases as regularly anymore. Putting him higher in the line-up also means he gets more at-bats per game. 

It will be tough for Twins fans to get a close-up view of Arraez on his new team this week, especially with questions about who should be batting in the leadoff spot. Baldelli has pushed many of the correct buttons to start the season, but the top of the line-up is something to watch. 

Who do you think will be the leadoff hitter versus left-handed starters? How long will Kepler stick in the leadoff spot versus righties? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[miracleb]

This was clearly the weakness when the Twins gave up Arraez in the trade for Lopez.  It would be nice to have someone step up by mid-season (Polanco, Julien, Lewis, etc.,) who could possibly fill the position.  It is a punch in the gut starting the game off with Kepler or Gallo stepping up to the plate.

[umterp23]

3-0 looks pretty good to me and we have a really good rotation.  Making that trade all day long.  Time to move on from what if articles

 

[mikelink45]

From what I read on TD - I am waiting for Julien to step in to that spot.  Gallo and Kepler make no sense to me.  I know it is old school, but having a batter who gets on base in front of the power bats is still a good strategy.   Arraez is now 9 for 16 for the Marlins.  They got what they wanted.

I know we had to sacrifice to get Lopez, but we need a contact hitter and he is not on the roster right now,  

[PopRiveter]

I miss Arraez so much that I’ve not watched any baseball yet this year. He’d made me love baseball again but here we are.

The idea of Gallo potentially batting leadoff is astonishing to me as a baseball fan. It’s not how the game I loved was played. If that actually happens, I may just check out on the Twins entirely until a new F.O. takes over.

On the current roster, Buxton makes the most sense from my vantage point. He can actually get on base and once there, he disrupts.

Just. Not. Gallo.

[Doctor Wu]

Anyone but Kepler. Buxton makes some sense on many levels, but his OBP doesn't seem to warrant having him leading off. I'm intrigued by Nick Gordan as a possibility, but he's not a regular starter at this point in the season, so maybe we use someone like Farmer or even Gallo? Yeah, plenty of strike outs, but he knows how to take a walk. Honestly, I don't think it's a big concern as long as we are not leaving too many men on base. 

[Major League Ready]

It’s much easier against LHP to come up with a lead-off hitter.  Correa, Farmer, Solano, and Garlick all hit LHP very well.  A friend of mine saw Polanco on the back fields a couple days ago and said he was smashing the ball.  He seems like the most likely solution short-term.  Julien should be a good option but I don’t see them throwing him into that role until he proves he is ready for MLB.  What about Larnach?  He has looked like their best LH bat out of the gate.  Not the guy I think of but he has looked very good.

[CRF]

Kepler sure isn't the answer, and Gallo isn't either. I don't really like Buxton at the 1 spot, but he'd be a much better alternative than Kep or Gallo. If Polanco can get back soon, I'd put him at leadoff and see what happens. Julien might be the guy down the road. 

[Bodie]

Even mentioning Gallo as a possible leadoff hitter is a sacrilege!

Actually doing so should be grounds for firing.  From a cannon, al a the First False Dimitry!

True, the Twins lack anything approaching a leadoff hitter (Buxton is probably closest- he of the career .245 batting average- based of his skill set - but having multiple bad choices doesn't mean you need to make the dumbest f####### choice available!

 

[Trov]

I think Farmer will be leadoff against lefties for now, but would not be surprised to see Buck there as well.  I think too many people put too much on the lead off guy.  Yes, having a good lead off guy can be helpful, but it is about overall scoring runs.  They are only going to for sure lead off 1 inning.  What used to be the leadoff type has gone away.  I mean we are seeing guys that used to be typical 3 or 4 guys lead off.  Teams have decided having your better overall hitters at top is more important.  That is one reason I would not be surprised to see Buck leading off if for nothing else his speed, which clearly he is running better than last year. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, PopRiveter said:

I miss Arraez so much that I’ve not watched any baseball yet this year. He’d made me love baseball again but here we are.

The idea of Gallo potentially batting leadoff is astonishing to me as a baseball fan. It’s not how the game I loved was played. If that actually happens, I may just check out on the Twins entirely until a new F.O. takes over.

On the current roster, Buxton makes the most sense from my vantage point. He can actually get on base and once there, he disrupts.

Just. Not. Gallo.

37 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Even mentioning Gallo as a possible leadoff hitter is a sacrilege!

Actually doing so should be grounds for firing.  From a cannon, al a the First False Dimitry!

True, the Twins lack anything approaching a leadoff hitter (Buxton is probably closest- he of the career .245 batting average- based of his skill set - but having multiple bad choices doesn't mean you need to make the dumbest f####### choice available!

 

Fascinating thoughts here. Buxton has a career OBP of .302. He doesn't steal bases anymore. And is a high K, low BA slugger. But he's really fast.

Gallo has a career OBP of .325. He doesn't really steal bases either. He's a high K, low BA slugger. But he's not super fast. 

Is Buxton's "skill set" just being fast? Because that's literally the only thing in their offensive games that he's got a real advantage in when it comes to leading off. Gallo lead the American League in walks just 2 years ago and had an OBP of .351. Buxton has had an OBP over .314 1 time in his career. I fail to see how Buxton "can actually get on base" or is the closest to being a classic leadoff hitter "based on his skill set." He's just the fastest guy on the team.

All that being said I'd put Buxton there. But that's just because I want my most dangerous hitters getting the most ABs. I'd go Buxton-Polanco-Correa to sandwich Polanco between the 2 righties and ensure he's seeing mostly righties since he's a better left handed hitter. But that lineup configuration has nothing to do with Buxton being anything close to a classic leadoff hitter. He's not. Never has been. Gallo had a 9.1% BB rate last year. By far his worst of his career. Buxton has never topped 9% in any season. Buxton is no classic leadoff hitter. He's simply fast. He's basically the opposite of Arraez who we're comparing these guys to. And Arraez had no speed at all. Gallo is actually quite a bit faster than Arraez. Interesting takes here.

[GopherJeff]

While we wait for Julien, Lewis, etc. to arrive, Larnach looks like a decent leadoff option. Move Kepler to the bottom of the order.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, PopRiveter said:

I miss Arraez so much that I’ve not watched any baseball yet this year. He’d made me love baseball again but here we are.

The idea of Gallo potentially batting leadoff is astonishing to me as a baseball fan. It’s not how the game I loved was played. If that actually happens, I may just check out on the Twins entirely until a new F.O. takes over.

On the current roster, Buxton makes the most sense from my vantage point. He can actually get on base and once there, he disrupts.

Just. Not. Gallo.

I liked Arraez a lot - he was fun to watch. That said, he could also 'clog up' the bases because he has little speed. Watching the Twins go first to third on singles in the KC series was good baseball. If Arraez was batting first and on first base, and Buxton got a hit, in many cases, Arraez would just be on second base. Buxton on first makes it harder for him to wreak havoc on the bases.

Arraez was also not a great defensive player. The Twins played great defense in the KC series, and if/when Polanco comes back and plays second base (better than Araez would) where do you play him? He's not the caliber of any of the Twins regular outfielders, Miranda appears to be their third baseman, and Kiriloff their first baseman. 

Gallo looked pretty impactful yesterday, with two HRs and a ringing double. Arraez isn't going to get you 10 total bases in a single game - and it takes a lot of singles to have that impact.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

3-0 looks pretty good to me and we have a really good rotation.  Making that trade all day long.  Time to move on from what if articles

 

I agree about making the trade with the Marlins all day long. The article was really asking who should be batting leadoff for the Twins. I hope to see Gallo at leadoff after Sunday's 2HR, a double, 4 RBI's and a walk game for Gallo. I know it is just one game, but hopefully it is a sign of good things to come for Joey Barrels.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

16 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I liked Arraez a lot - he was fun to watch. That said, he could also 'clog up' the bases because he has little speed. Watching the Twins go first to third on singles in the KC series was good baseball. If Arraez was batting first and on first base, and Buxton got a hit, in many cases, Arraez would just be on second base. Buxton on first makes it harder for him to wreak havoc on the bases.

Arraez was also not a great defensive player. The Twins played great defense in the KC series, and if/when Polanco comes back and plays second base (better than Araez would) where do you play him? He's not the caliber of any of the Twins regular outfielders, Miranda appears to be their third baseman, and Kiriloff their first baseman. 

Gallo looked pretty impactful yesterday, with two HRs and a ringing double. Arraez isn't going to get you 10 total bases in a single game - and it takes a lot of singles to have that impact.

Good point about Arraez clogging up the bases.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

21 minutes ago, GopherJeff said:

While we wait for Julien, Lewis, etc. to arrive, Larnach looks like a decent leadoff option. Move Kepler to the bottom of the order.

Larnach is too slow to have on base ahead of Buck. Gallo has the speed. 

[rv78]

Using Kepler or Gallo in the leadoff spot is totally brainless. I'm not looking for the guy who can just get on base, I want my best hitters at the top of the lineup so they get the most at bats. Like someone said, the guy hitting 1st in the lineup is only guaranteed to leadoff once per game. Kepler and Gallo need to be in the 7, 8 or 9 spots or on the bench. Get a clue Rocco.

[danielp19653]

While I agree with most here the Kepler and Gallo just don't seem like great leadoff options against righties I think its going to be in flux until Gordon, Kepler, Kirilloff, Polanco, or Gallo shows they're hitting righties well and consistently. I have no doubt at least one will emerge. Gallo and Kepler both hit some balls really hard this series so I'm not as worried about Kepler's 0-13 as some are. It'll work itself out before the end of April if I had to guess.

[John Mickelson]

Buxton and leave him there.

 

[Riverbrian]

I'd be happy if the leadoff spot or any spot in a batting order for that matter was fluid. Not slotted game in and game out like they typically do.  

If you are going to use metrics to determine who should play then use all metrics to determine who should play AND where they should hit in the order. It should change based upon hot/cold and matchup data. 

Kepler batting leadoff 3 times in a row assumes that Kepler is our best hitter. He has not been for two years.  

Kepler batting leadoff 3 times in a row assumes that Kepler matches up best against Greinke, Lyles and Keller. I don't know... I haven't checked the metrics but I doubt that. 

If you are going to platoon for advantages around tight margins. Why negate those slight advantages with a slotted batting order that will some day produce Kepler batting leadoff against a starter that he is 0 for 20 against. 

 

 

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I think Farmer will be leadoff against lefties for now, but would not be surprised to see Buck there as well.  I think too many people put too much on the lead off guy.  Yes, having a good lead off guy can be helpful, but it is about overall scoring runs.  They are only going to for sure lead off 1 inning.  What used to be the leadoff type has gone away.  I mean we are seeing guys that used to be typical 3 or 4 guys lead off.  Teams have decided having your better overall hitters at top is more important.  That is one reason I would not be surprised to see Buck leading off if for nothing else his speed, which clearly he is running better than last year. 

Exactly, the importance to the leadoff spot for teams now is that guy gets more AB's than anyone else over the course of the season. So some teams are putting their best overall hitter there. Put Buxton there. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, PopRiveter said:

I miss Arraez so much that I’ve not watched any baseball yet this year. He’d made me love baseball again but here we are.

The idea of Gallo potentially batting leadoff is astonishing to me as a baseball fan. It’s not how the game I loved was played. If that actually happens, I may just check out on the Twins entirely until a new F.O. takes over.

On the current roster, Buxton makes the most sense from my vantage point. He can actually get on base and once there, he disrupts.

Just. Not. Gallo.

Pop, Don't check out of the game over Gallo leading off. Hang in there so you can say, "I told you so" to the rest of us when Gallo strikes out 4 times at leadoff. But when Gallo walks once, hits a double and 2 home runs and runs the bases quickly, I'll say, "I told you so" to you. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Polanco makes sense when he's healthy.  Pencil him in everyday.  As a switch-hitter you don't need to worry about match-ups.  When he needs a day off, Gordon can do the job.  I think the lineup continuity would help.  

[JD-TWINS]

31 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good point about Arraez clogging up the bases.

I didn’t like the trade for López……..have made the mental adjustment. Need pitching. Gotta move on…..saying Arraez clogs the bases as some further rationalization for his trade is nuts!

After 3 games, he’s got as many hits as Correa, Buxton, & Gallo combined. You gotta be on base to be in the way…….it’s not Luis’ fault that Kepler sucks ……..no reason to hate on the batting champion of ‘22.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

They got what they wanted.

And so did we

[Jocko87]

34 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Larnach is too slow to have on base ahead of Buck. Gallo has the speed. 

It wouldn't surprise me if Larnach was faster than Gallo, dude can moter for a big man.  That said, neither are that fast or profile at the top of the order.  Let Larnach hold the 4 hole down as long as he's performing.

[KBJ1]

Long gone are the days of the Rickey Henderson types of leadoff hitters.

5 tool players like him just don't exist anymore.  Arraez, granted is a great hitter, but that was all he excelled at.

I would hope to see Polanco, Gordon or Lewis win that role. Good batting average with decent speed & power

[weitz41]

I'm guessing Farmer will leadoff against lefties. Probably Kepler against right handers until Polanco come back.

Maybe Lewis and/or Julien leading off by the end of the season

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I didn’t like the trade for López……..have made the mental adjustment. Need pitching. Gotta move on…..saying Arraez clogs the bases as some further rationalization for his trade is nuts!

After 3 games, he’s got as many hits as Correa, Buxton, & Gallo combined. You gotta be on base to be in the way…….it’s not Luis’ fault that Kepler sucks ……..no reason to hate on the batting champion of ‘22.

You are correct. Arraez has to get on base in the first place, in order to "clog" the bases. Maybe I was a little harsh in my use of the term "clog the bases". Thanks for pointing that out. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It wouldn't surprise me if Larnach was faster than Gallo, dude can moter for a big man.  That said, neither are that fast or profile at the top of the order.  Let Larnach hold the 4 hole down as long as he's performing.

So far this season Gallo is in the 58th percentile for sprint speed. His 26.5 ft/s sprint speed is the slowest of his career to this point. He's been more of a 27+ ft/s guy to this point. Larnach's sprint speed this season is at 27.0 ft/s after having been 26.5 last year. They're about as similar as you can get. Both much better athletes than you'd expect out of 6'4" and 6'5" guys. Nice to have some added athleticism to the Twins lineup! But I agree, Larnach is just fine in the 4 hole.