The Arraez Deficit: Twins Leadoff Plan is Full of Mediocre Options

[Battle ur tail off]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

From what I read on TD - I am waiting for Julien to step in to that spot.  Gallo and Kepler make no sense to me.  I know it is old school, but having a batter who gets on base in front of the power bats is still a good strategy.   Arraez is now 9 for 16 for the Marlins.  They got what they wanted.

I know we had to sacrifice to get Lopez, but we need a contact hitter and he is not on the roster right now,  

100% with you. Not sure why they want to try guys at the top that have trouble getting on base. A good leadoff hitter is also something that I feel is super important to a good lineup. Not even sure who we have that gets on base at the clip we'd want out of a leadoff hitter though...

Honestly, Polanco might not be a bad choice whenever he gets back.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, GopherJeff said:

While we wait for Julien, Lewis, etc. to arrive, Larnach looks like a decent leadoff option. Move Kepler to the bottom of the order.

Larnach is seeing 4.57 pitches per plate appearance. The only other Twin over 4.00 is Correa. I agree, Larnach is taking the best at bats on the team at the moment and would make a good lead off hitter until someone more traditional gets called up.

[JD-TWINS]

32 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd be happy if the leadoff spot or any spot in a batting order for that matter was fluid. Not slotted game in and game out like they typically do.  

If you are going to use metrics to determine who should play then use all metrics to determine who should play AND where they should hit in the order. It should change based upon hot/cold and matchup data. 

Kepler batting leadoff 3 times in a row assumes that Kepler is our best hitter. He has not been for two years.  

Kepler batting leadoff 3 times in a row assumes that Kepler matches up best against Greinke, Lyles and Keller. I don't know... I haven't checked the metrics but I doubt that. 

If you are going to platoon for advantages around tight margins. Why negate those slight advantages with a slotted batting order that will some day produce Kepler batting leadoff against a starter that he is 0 for 20 against. 

 

 

3-0…….of the 9 batters we started the 3 games with, who is a better choice to lead-off? Agreeing Kepler isn’t a favorable option!

Not CC - Buxton/Larnach/Miranda flourished in their spots - Gordon maybe but his OBP history isn’t lead-off obvious, but maybe - Gallo v. Kepler seems to be a draw at lead-off - Vazquez/Jeffers had 6 hits between them but not lead-off material - can’t be Taylor v. RH pitching.

Taylor leads-off against LH pitching? Maybe Gordon gets a shot v. RH pitching at lead-off?

No perfect line-up nor perfect team.

3-0.

[Muppet]

When Kepler leads off, that is one less inning that he ends. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

29 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Long gone are the days of the Rickey Henderson types of leadoff hitters.

5 tool players like him just don't exist anymore.  Arraez, granted is a great hitter, but that was all he excelled at.

I would hope to see Polanco, Gordon or Lewis win that role. Good batting average with decent speed & power

Wasn't Buxton billed as a 5 tool player?

That said, I sill like Polanco there when he comes back.

[miracleb]

  40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I didn’t like the trade for López……..have made the mental adjustment. Need pitching. Gotta move on…..saying Arraez clogs the bases as some further rationalization for his trade is nuts!

After 3 games, he’s got as many hits as Correa, Buxton, & Gallo combined. You gotta be on base to be in the way…….it’s not Luis’ fault that Kepler sucks ……..no reason to hate on the batting champion of ‘22.

 

Ha.......this is a WAY TO EARLY assessment of the trade.  Arraez has been LIGHTS OUT for Miami and their record is 1-3.  2 of the 3 wins for the Twins can almost directly be attributed to the two players the Twins got for Arraez....Pablo Lopez and Gallo (first base replacement.)   First base "is made" for a taller, power hitter......not a short, slap hitter.  If the Twins didn't think he could play 2nd base.....he was expendable!  LOVED the trade!

[Muppet]

11 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Wasn't Buxton billed as a 5 tool player?

That said, I sill like Polanco there when he comes back.

With Buxton's power I'd still put him in at the 3 or 4 spot. He could hit 50+ HR in 162 games. He'd still have plenty of opportunities to hit with the bases empty. 

[Whitey333]

Sad to see so many people dissing on Luis Arraez.  He was the AL batting champion last year!!    I am glad we got Lopez, so the trade was ok with me, although it is hard to trade a hitter of Arraez caliber that plays every day for a pitcher only playing once a week.  Ok MAYBE twice per week.  As for leadoff spot I would use Buxton or Polanco.  Have a great day everyone.  Go Twins!

[Jocko87]

The legend of Arreaz continues to grow and will reach a fever pitch in the next few days.  While his one plus tool plays in the leadoff spot, he was hardly a prototypical leadoff.  The minus speed, minus pop and minus defensive flexibility makes him a tough roster fit.  I did like him at leadoff last year in the best hitters get more at bats methodology and Correa was never going to run him down from the two hole.

Lineup construction for a single game is different than lineup construction for a season. 

I agree fully with getting the best hitters the most at bats over the course of the season but without a locked in leadoff Rocco should be playing matchups to make the top of the lineup a combined best player.  At the end of the year, that lineup spot should be looked at without a name to see how well Rocco played matchups.  If he could get assure Kepler 3 ABs against Trevor Bauer by batting him leadoff he should make that move every time.

This may mean Gallo, Solano, Farmer, Gordon etc might get reps.  I like leaving Buxton in the 3 hole for the most part but don't hate him leading off either.  He will certainly up the average for my leadoff conglomeration.

If Julien does continue to develop it seems he profiles the best for the spot but its a lot to ask for a rookie.  It may be next year before he is solidly in the top 4-5 hitters in the lineup which is where I would like to see him before we lock him in at the top of the order.

 

[rv78]

I'm not sold on Buxton in the #3 spot. Typically you want your best hitter there to not only score runs but to drive them in. Gotta have someone on base first before you get an RBI unless all you're doing is hitting solo HR, which is what Buxton did a lot of last year. If his power is going to be his forte going forward then he needs to go to the cleanup spot. I move Correa to the #3 hole and either Gordon, Farmer, Solano in the #2 spot until Polanco comes back. If Larnach continues to rake he should go to the #1 spot in the order especially against righties. It surely looks like he's a WAY better option right now than Kepler. It appears that Rocco has a hard time seeing a game, understanding it and making adjustments. Evidently his spreadsheet still says Kepler is a leadoff hitter even though that hasn't been the case for 3 years now. 

[MGX]

On 4/3/2023 at 10:20 AM, miracleb said:

  40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I didn’t like the trade for López……..have made the mental adjustment. Need pitching. Gotta move on…..saying Arraez clogs the bases as some further rationalization for his trade is nuts!

After 3 games, he’s got as many hits as Correa, Buxton, & Gallo combined. You gotta be on base to be in the way…….it’s not Luis’ fault that Kepler sucks ……..no reason to hate on the batting champion of ‘22.

 

Ha.......this is a WAY TO EARLY assessment of the trade.  Arraez has been LIGHTS OUT for Miami and their record is 1-3.  2 of the 3 wins for the Twins can almost directly be attributed to the two players the Twins got for Arraez....Pablo Lopez and Gallo (first base replacement.)   First base "is made" for a taller, power hitter......not a short, slap hitter.  If the Twins didn't think he could play 2nd base.....he was expendable!  LOVED the trade!

We didn't get Gallo in the Arraez trade. He was signed a month before the trade.

For me the trade was fine, you give something of value to get something of value & we got a couple of prospects. 

[Schmoeman5]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd be happy if the leadoff spot or any spot in a batting order for that matter was fluid. Not slotted game in and game out like they typically do.  

If you are going to use metrics to determine who should play then use all metrics to determine who should play AND where they should hit in the order. It should change based upon hot/cold and matchup data. 

Kepler batting leadoff 3 times in a row assumes that Kepler is our best hitter. He has not been for two years.  

Kepler batting leadoff 3 times in a row assumes that Kepler matches up best against Greinke, Lyles and Keller. I don't know... I haven't checked the metrics but I doubt that. 

If you are going to platoon for advantages around tight margins. Why negate those slight advantages with a slotted batting order that will some day produce Kepler batting leadoff against a starter that he is 0 for 20 against. 

 

 

I do know that Keplers numbers vs Keller were 7-19 before that game. Not sure about the other 2. And Gallo was like 0 for 19 against Greinke. Because there was some talk about him leading off opening day

[saviking]

Julian long term, Buxton short term

[LA VIkes Fan]

Polanco may wind up leading off but I hate to waste his RBI productivity at that spot.  How about the 2nd base platoon in the leadoff spot? Farmer can fill that role against LH pitching. He's a career .286.,344/.490 against LH pitching, Gordon is  .291/.331/.454 against RH pitching in essentially one year sample size. Neither is great, but both acceptable. Lewis may have that spot by July. How about that group leading off, with Polanco on the 6 hole when he returns, and Kepler moving to #8 or #9?

[Johnny Ringo]

No one loves Luis more than I do. But I do think this was a trade too good to pass up. Not to get down a saber rabbit hole but Luis at first base has its limitations in respect of value. Number 2 starters simply have more worth than good (look at OPS+ metrics) but not great first basemen. OK, I guess I pointed at the rabbit hole. 

Salas is a very intriguing bonus.   

I am not influenced by Kepler's frigid start but why the Twins haven't traded him is inexplicable to me. He has a couple of tools but love of the game does not seem to be one of them.

While Correa was in the gym, Max was in Paris. Hot tip, Max: France will still be there when your career is over.    

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

3-0…….of the 9 batters we started the 3 games with, who is a better choice to lead-off? Agreeing Kepler isn’t a favorable option!

Not CC - Buxton/Larnach/Miranda flourished in their spots - Gordon maybe but his OBP history isn’t lead-off obvious, but maybe - Gallo v. Kepler seems to be a draw at lead-off - Vazquez/Jeffers had 6 hits between them but not lead-off material - can’t be Taylor v. RH pitching.

Taylor leads-off against LH pitching? Maybe Gordon gets a shot v. RH pitching at lead-off?

No perfect line-up nor perfect team.

3-0.

I don't know who should hit lead off. I'll leave that to Rocco to decide. 

But... I do believe that whoever hits leadoff... shouldn't permanently hit lead off because there will be games when the lead off hitter doesn't match up favorably. 

As long as the lineup is slotted or static... Rocco is on autopilot.    

[Fatbat]

The solution is to bring up Julien and play him every day. 

[joefish]

59 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I'm not sold on Buxton in the #3 spot. Typically you want your best hitter there to not only score runs but to drive them in. Gotta have someone on base first before you get an RBI unless all you're doing is hitting solo HR, which is what Buxton did a lot of last year. If his power is going to be his forte going forward then he needs to go to the cleanup spot. I move Correa to the #3 hole and either Gordon, Farmer, Solano in the #2 spot until Polanco comes back. If Larnach continues to rake he should go to the #1 spot in the order especially against righties. It surely looks like he's a WAY better option right now than Kepler. It appears that Rocco has a hard time seeing a game, understanding it and making adjustments. Evidently his spreadsheet still says Kepler is a leadoff hitter even though that hasn't been the case for 3 years now. 

I think they are giving Kepler as many at bats as they can early in the season to see if he can get his swing back. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I agree about making the trade with the Marlins all day long. The article was really asking who should be batting leadoff for the Twins. I hope to see Gallo at leadoff after Sunday's 2HR, a double, 4 RBI's and a walk game for Gallo. I know it is just one game, but hopefully it is a sign of good things to come for Joey Barrels.  

Earl Weaver was fond of the three-run homer, and with good reason. Gallo's yesterday changed the complexion of the game and allowed the Twins to use Moran and Pagan rather than a couple of their top-tier arms (although it was a shame that Jax had to warm up in the ninth, meaning he may not be available today). If Gallo is batting first, he probably doesn't get as many opportunities for a three-run home run. Given his below-average OBP, I think he's better suited to batting, say, fifth than first.

[arby58]

8 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The solution is to bring up Julien and play him every day. 

Julien is currently 1 for 12 for St. Paul. Playing him every day at the MLB level sounds a little premature. 

[miracleb]

That's why Gallo was labeled as the "first base replacement!"  LOL!

MGX

Posted 1 hour ago

  1 hour ago, miracleb said:

  40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I didn’t like the trade for López……..have made the mental adjustment. Need pitching. Gotta move on…..saying Arraez clogs the bases as some further rationalization for his trade is nuts!

After 3 games, he’s got as many hits as Correa, Buxton, & Gallo combined. You gotta be on base to be in the way…….it’s not Luis’ fault that Kepler sucks ……..no reason to hate on the batting champion of ‘22.

 

Ha.......this is a WAY TO EARLY assessment of the trade.  Arraez has been LIGHTS OUT for Miami and their record is 1-3.  2 of the 3 wins for the Twins can almost directly be attributed to the two players the Twins got for Arraez....Pablo Lopez and Gallo (first base replacement.)   First base "is made" for a taller, power hitter......not a short, slap hitter.  If the Twins didn't think he could play 2nd base.....he was expendable!  LOVED the trade!

We didn't get Gallo in the Arraez trade. He was signed a month before the trade.

For me the trade was fine, you give something of value to gets something of value & we got a couple of prospects. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I didn’t like the trade for López……..have made the mental adjustment. Need pitching. Gotta move on…..saying Arraez clogs the bases as some further rationalization for his trade is nuts!

After 3 games, he’s got as many hits as Correa, Buxton, & Gallo combined. You gotta be on base to be in the way…….it’s not Luis’ fault that Kepler sucks ……..no reason to hate on the batting champion of ‘22.

First, Arraez has played four games, the Twins you mention only three. In four games, Arraez has 10 total bases (9 singles, 1 double). In three games, Buxton has 9 total bases (a double, a triple, and four singles. Gallo has 10 total bases (a double and two home runs).  Singles are not as impactful as doubles, triples and home runs.

Pointing these things out isn't 'hating' Arraez, but he is  one-dimensional as a player. He's really good at that one dimension, but hitting a lot of singles isn't the way most teams win a lot of ballgames. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

17 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Earl Weaver was fond of the three-run homer, and with good reason. Gallo's yesterday changed the complexion of the game and allowed the Twins to use Moran and Pagan rather than a couple of their top-tier arms (although it was a shame that Jax had to warm up in the ninth, meaning he may not be available today). If Gallo is batting first, he probably doesn't get as many opportunities for a three-run home run. Given his below-average OBP, I think he's better suited to batting, say, fifth than first.

Even though I am a lifelong Twins fan, I really enjoyed Earl Weaver and his fire and brimstone attitude.  If I had not been a Senators fan before they moved to Minnesota, I might have become an Orioles fan. 

[Harrison Greeley III]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Larnach is seeing 4.57 pitches per plate appearance. The only other Twin over 4.00 is Correa. I agree, Larnach is taking the best at bats on the team at the moment and would make a good lead off hitter until someone more traditional gets called up.

The scouting report seems very obvious that he will hurt your fastball, so therefore throw him 4 off-speed pitches for every one fastball you hope he fouls off. In the early going of 2023, he seems to have made the adjustment to avoid chasing. For a little small sample size fun, he only swung at 18% of pitches outside the strike zone this weekend. He hit 100% of the pitches he swung at inside the strike zone this weekend. Who knows how that looks in the long run, but with health I'm very excited about him and I agree about him being the lead-off hitter choice. 

As for Kepler, the Twins have to accept that he was one of the greatest beneficiaries of the 2019 juiced ball. And without that ball, he is a defensive replacement/injury depth insurance. That's hard for me to accept. But at this point I have to. 

[h2oface]

No worries. Baldelli will have almost as many different lineups as games played.

I love the comedy on this thread, and the continued attempts to diminish Arraez’ value. Getting on base clogs up the base paths. Now that is funny. 

[Craig Arko]

I’d consider having Correa lead off until Polanco returns.

[beckmt]

I don't see Kepler being the answer, maybe you can trade him for a bag of warm balls,  when Polanco comes back, he is the most likely candidate to be gone.  

[lake_guy]

Also, the club faced three right-handed pitchers, but the left-handed hitter went 0-for-13 with a walk. However, there have been some positive signs among those numbers. Four of his nine batted balls have had an exit velocity over 95 mph, which might indicate more hits falling in upcoming games.  

ugh...whenever I see this exit velocity used to counter an awlful batting line I just don't get it.  Yes it's early but the dude is 0-13.  He doesn't belong anywhere near the top of the order.  I can see why Rocco wanted to try him there but the experiment should be over.  Put him where his actual hitting performance deserves.

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, GopherJeff said:

While we wait for Julien, Lewis, etc. to arrive, Larnach looks like a decent leadoff option. Move Kepler to the bottom of the order.

I like how you're thinking, but I would move Kepler to the bench!

[Minny505]

4 hours ago, GopherJeff said:

While we wait for Julien, Lewis, etc. to arrive, Larnach looks like a decent leadoff option. Move Kepler to the bottom of the order.

I hadn't considered this. I like it!

I'm done with Kepler as leadoff. Sure, he hits the ball hard, but it's often straight down or up. 

I also like:

• Gallo (Always a good OBP and minimizes the downside of K's as they don't matter much when no one is on base) 
• Correa (who is likely to lead the team in OBP)
• Buxton (speed and is likely to lead the team in OPS)