Phillies 7, Twins 5: This One Might Have Done It

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Dean Kremer 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 6 K (89 Pitches, 52 Strikes, 58.4%)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (18), Kody Clemens (21)
Bottom 3 WPA: Andrew Morris (-0.58), Byron Buxton (-0.19), Ryan Jeffers (-0.11)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

For the eighth or ninth time, the Twins' season is on life support. After creeping above .500 with a win in Seattle, the team has gone 4-9, which hasn't impacted their place in the standings as much as it should, but has made winning 82-84 games a lot trickier. Perhaps no team out of the Twins, Detroit, Texas, Cleveland or Toronto ends up with a .500 record, but betting on that seems a risky proposition as non-contending teams start to phone in the rest of the season.

The Phillies dominated the first two games of the series, despite not starting Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sánchez. The weakness of the team is their reliance on the struggling Aaron Nola (who shoved in the Field of Dreams game) and Sunday's starter, Andrew Painter, both with ERAs well north of 5.00.

It appeared that Painter might wriggle out of trouble in the first inning. He walked Trevor Larnach on four pitches, then fell behind Byron Buxton, but he induced a double-play grounder from the highly compromised Buxton. Fortunately, Josh Bell and Kody Clemens singled and Royce Lewis walked, bringing up Brooks Lee with the bases juiced. He nearly homered on a sweeper but was a hair out front. He then got a harder slider on 1-2 and smashed it into the right-field overhang for a grand slam.

Dean Kremer started for the Twins, and his afternoon started with Kyle Schwarber launching a 3-1 fastball off the wall in right-center field for a double. But Kremer settled in (despite falling behind a lot of hitters early), retiring Bryson Stott and Bryce Harper on weak flyouts before Luis Arraez lined out to Clemens at second base for the third out.

Kremer mixed his pitches well, giving roughly equal time to each of his five pitches while staying out of the middle of the zone. He got through the first four innings with 56 pitches, four strikeouts and just two hits allowed.

Perhaps jealous of Lee (they tend to homer in the same games for some reason), Clemens homered in the third, a no-doubter to the pavilion in right field off a fat fastball from Painter. He has hit .106 since his historic game-winning grand slam against Kansas City, so it was good to see him square up the ball and get rewarded.

The Phillies staged a rally in the sixth. Schwarber led off with a walk. Stott singled, and Harper drew another walk. Arraez dribbled a ball to second to score the Phillies' first run, but Clemens did convert the first out of the inning. Alas, Alec Bohm then tomahawked a splitter at the top of the zone for a three-run homer to trim the Twins' lead to one. That spelled the end of the day for Kremer, with Kody Funderburk coming on to record the final two outs of the inning.

The teams traded zeroes for a spell, but with Andrew Morris on the bump in the eighth, the Phillies got to work. With one out, Harper singled. Arraez laced a ball to deep left that bounced off of Austin Martin's glove. A fan touched the ball, so it was ruled a ground-rule double, but Martin appeared to hurt himself on the play and had to leave the game with what the team called a left hamstring strain. Bohm then blooped a ball to shallow right field. It landed between Lewis and Keaschall, allowing Harper to tie the game. The Twins elected to walk Brandon Marsh to bring up the struggling J.T. Realmuto with the bases loaded; the game (and perhaps the season) on the line. Morris got him to pop up on a 3-2 pitch, but Bryan De La Cruz slapped a single the opposite way to score two runs.

The Twins had the tying run on in their half of the eighth, and Brooks Lee served a ball up the middle that Stott made a diving stop on. He flipped to second, where Lewis was possibly safe, but he overran the bag and was tagged out trying to scamper back, a crucial baserunning blunder with the hot-hitting Keaschall due up next.

Facing dear old friend Jhoan Duran in the ninth, Caratini drew a one-out walk, and Kaelen Culpepper worked a great at-bat before singling on the ninth pitch to bring up Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers struck out after being ahead 3-0, and Buxton predictably struck out to end the game. He's just not himself right now.

Stuff I'm Tracking:

• Buxton looks rough, grounding into a rare (for him) double play despite being ahead in the count in the first; striking out on a ball at his eyes in the third; and swinging through a slider with runners on the corners in the fourth. He would later ground out weakly before his game-ending K in the ninth.
• The Twins couldn't get Painter included in the Jhoan Duran trade last year, opting for Mick Abel instead. Of course, Abel is hurt, but Painter looks more like a bullpen weapon at this point of his career, as he has allowed an .835 OPS against in his big-league career thus far.
• Victor Caratini has become a problem. His at-bats are non-competitive and he wasted both ABS challenges in the sixth in this one. Alex Jackson is now on the waiver wire, and I feel like he would be more productive as the backup catcher at this point. But Jackson has less of a track record, and the Twins owe Caratini $7 million next year with Jeffers (presumably) signing elsewhere.

I sure hope Vahn Lackey develops quickly.
 

What’s Next: The Twins welcome the Atlanta Braves to Target Field for a three-game set. Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.64 ERA) opposes Martín Pérez (8-6, 2.96 ERA) in a must-win series against a formidable National League opponent. Pérez hasn't allowed a run since July, as he continues to oscillate between being a borderline All-Star and being out of the league. Ober has animorphed into Chris Young, and we'll just have to continue seeing how that goes.

Postgame Interviews: Coming soon

Bullpen Usage Chart: