The Arraez Deficit: Twins Leadoff Plan is Full of Mediocre Options

[rick kayser]

When and if Polanco is healthy, he makes the most sense. He walks, can hit with some pop and switch hits. That combo makes him the logical choice. A lead-off hitter likely "leads-off" only once per game, so a variety of skills are needed for the hitter who will receive the most of your team's Ab's. If we define "most ab's" as the most valuable resource, then Buxton also makes sense. From a psycological perspective, facing a home run threat with your 1st pitch can affect some pitchers. I state that opinion without out any evidence.

[Doctor Gast]

Not Kepler or Gordon because they have been terrible, they make us regret losing Arraez. But Buxton is a scoring threat, Right now he's our best choice. When Polanco comes back, he could also be a choice. Near future RH bat Martin/ LH bat Julien, they will help us to forget Arraez. 

[Beast]

We have plenty of fine leadoff hitters.  Why Baldelli keeps inexplicably throwing the worst option for the lead off spot (arguably) into the leadoff spot is a mystery.

Buxton is our best all around hitter.  He hits for a ton of power.  He avoids double plays better than anybody in the MLB.  He should be put in a position to hit with runners in base.

Other than that, put anybody there.  If Polanco makes it back, he’d be a pretty good candidate.  Gallo’s ability to see pitches and take walks would even work fine.

It may even help Kepler to get out of this prolonged funk if you took some of the pressure off and buried him in the 7 or 8 hole.

[spanman2]

I am going Polanco when he gets back into game shape.  Solid veteran presence that takes mostly good AB'S.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

No worries. Baldelli will have almost as many different lineups as games played.

I love the comedy on this thread, and the continued attempts to diminish Arraez’ value. Getting on base clogs up the base paths. Now that is funny. 

I regret making that statement. It is funny, but I was trying to be serious. The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

No worries. Baldelli will have almost as many different lineups as games played.

I love the comedy on this thread, and the continued attempts to diminish Arraez’ value. Getting on base clogs up the base paths. Now that is funny. 

Last year, while fourth in MLB in BA, Arraez was 29th in runs scored. Those ahead of him were either power hitters who got themselves into better position to score or did it themselves by hitting a home run (the likes of Judge, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Schwarber, etc), players with more speed (Altuve, Betts, Ramirez, Rodriguez, etc.), or both.

The object of the game is to score runs, and it's a lot harder when you hit singles and don't run particularly well (i.e., going from first to third on another single) than when you start on second, third or touch all the bases via a home run.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

3-0…….of the 9 batters we started the 3 games with, who is a better choice to lead-off? Agreeing Kepler isn’t a favorable option!

Not CC - Buxton/Larnach/Miranda flourished in their spots - Gordon maybe but his OBP history isn’t lead-off obvious, but maybe - Gallo v. Kepler seems to be a draw at lead-off - Vazquez/Jeffers had 6 hits between them but not lead-off material - can’t be Taylor v. RH pitching.

Taylor leads-off against LH pitching? Maybe Gordon gets a shot v. RH pitching at lead-off?

No perfect line-up nor perfect team.

3-0.

Either of us could've hit 1st in the order and gone 0-14 with 14 Ks and the Twins still would've won those 3 games. KC being a AAAA team and scoring 4 runs in 3 games has no bearing on the discussion. 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Sad to see so many people dissing on Luis Arraez.  He was the AL batting champion last year!!    I am glad we got Lopez, so the trade was ok with me, although it is hard to trade a hitter of Arraez caliber that plays every day for a pitcher only playing once a week.  Ok MAYBE twice per week.  As for leadoff spot I would use Buxton or Polanco.  Have a great day everyone.  Go Twins!

Arraez was fun to watch, because he always battled and often found a way to scratch out a single after a long at bat. That said, he was fourth in MLB in batting average but only 28th in OPS, which every baseball analyst will tell you is a far better measuring stick of offensive output than batting average, which weights a single and a home run equally. Arraez hits singles.

Compare stat lines from last year:
(in order batting average, on base percentage, slugging average, OPS):

.316  .375  .420  .795

.311  .425  .686  1.111

Arraez is the first column - and yes, he led the AL in batting average (at the lowest level in several decades). The second column is Aaron Judge, who had a phenomenal offensive year, hitting 62 homes runs (to Arraez' 8) and also significantly more walks (which is why his OBP was higher), and also 16 steals to 4 for Arraez. 

As Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner said, “singles hitters drive Fords and home run hitters drive Cadillacs.”

[howeda7]

Polanco should lead off once he comes back. Until then, a platoon of Gordon/Farmer/Solano would be better than Kepler.

[Doctor Gast]

Why hasn't anyone not mentioned Vazquez. Our best RH bat OBP? 😇

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Polanco may wind up leading off but I hate to waste his RBI productivity at that spot.  How about the 2nd base platoon in the leadoff spot? Farmer can fill that role against LH pitching. He's a career .286.,344/.490 against LH pitching, Gordon is  .291/.331/.454 against RH pitching in essentially one year sample size. Neither is great, but both acceptable. Lewis may have that spot by July. How about that group leading off, with Polanco on the 6 hole when he returns, and Kepler moving to #8 or #9?

I think dropping that platoon into the 9th spot with Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Larnach-Miranda (or arrange them however you want) at the top would be my choice over dropping Polanco all the way down to 6th. My thought process being that when you get late in the game and you've switched that platoon up as the other team starts bringing in relievers you're more likely to end up with Farmer or Gordon hitting against a same-handed pitcher, and then you've turned your 1 hole hitter into a well below average hitter while Polanco is losing ABs being way down at 6th.

[umterp23]

And it continues.  The Kepler Struggle Tour continues

 

[VINMANCT]

It's really shocking to me that the Twins clearly don't realize what they have in Julien. He will be one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball. Just look at his OBP! Unless they're playing games with his service time, which would be just plain stupid, it was a huge mistake not to have Julien leading off on opening day. He can be the DH or put him at 2B, where he's not as terrible as he is made out to be. Julien will make Twins fans forget about Arraez, though he was one of my favorites, too.  But Julien brings power.

And the Twins shouldn't wait to bring up Lee, either. He is a stud. Put him at 3B for now and move Miranda back to 1B. 

Julien 2B, Correa SS, Buxton DH, Miranda 1B, Larnach RF, Gallo LF Lee 3B, Vasquez C, Taylor CF.

And get Ober up immediately. Maeda can relieve. Don't blow this.

[arby58]

5 minutes ago, VINMANCT said:

It's really shocking to me that the Twins clearly don't realize what they have in Julien. He will be one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball. Just look at his OBP! Unless they're playing games with his service time, which would be just plain stupid, it was a huge mistake not to have Julien leading off on opening day. He can be the DH or put him at 2B, where he's not as terrible as he is made out to be. Julien will make Twins fans forget about Arraez, though he was one of my favorites, too.  But Julien brings power.

And the Twins shouldn't wait to bring up Lee, either. He is a stud. Put him at 3B for now and move Miranda back to 1B. 

Julien 2B, Correa SS, Buxton DH, Miranda 1B, Larnach RF, Gallo LF Lee 3B, Marquez C, Taylor CF.

And get Ober up immediately. Maeda can relieve now.          Don't blow this.

Julien has all of 12 at bats at the AAA level, and is 1 for 12. Long-term, yes, he's part of their future, but he's not part of it in April 2023.

[arby58]

9 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

And it continues.  The Kepler Struggle Tour continues

 

It's three games into the season. Until yesterday, Gallo was at .000 as well. Kepler has hit a couple of balls well, it's not as if he's not making contact. Neither Gordon or Correa has done much either.  I'm not a card carrying member of the Max Kepler fan club, but some people were suggesting Gallo sit after his first two games as well.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, VINMANCT said:

It's really shocking to me that the Twins clearly don't realize what they have in Julien. He will be one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball. Just look at his OBP! Unless they're playing games with his service time, which would be just plain stupid, it was a huge mistake not to have Julien leading off on opening day. He can be the DH or put him at 2B, where he's not as terrible as he is made out to be. Julien will make Twins fans forget about Arraez, though he was one of my favorites, too.  But Julien brings power.

And the Twins shouldn't wait to bring up Lee, either. He is a stud. Put him at 3B for now and move Miranda back to 1B. 

Julien 2B, Correa SS, Buxton DH, Miranda 1B, Larnach RF, Gallo LF Lee 3B, Marquez C, Taylor CF.

And get Ober up immediately. Maeda can relieve now.          Don't blow this.

Julien's current OBP in AAA is .154. 1 for 12 with 6 Ks and 1 walk in AAA is not exactly what I'd expect to see out of someone who is so clearly the obvious answer to batting leadoff in the majors.

Brooks Lee has a chance to be great, but he wasn't great in Spring Training, and dropping him into an everyday role 8 months after he was drafted would be an absolutely awful decision for his development. They'll get their chances, and both have a chance to be wonderful players. But let's pump the brakes a bit on them for now. It's 3 games in. 

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

No one loves Luis more than I do. But I do think this was a trade too good to pass up. Not to get down a saber rabbit hole but Luis at first base has its limitations in respect of value. Number 2 starters simply have more worth than good (look at OPS+ metrics) but not great first basemen. OK, I guess I pointed at the rabbit hole. 

Salas is a very intriguing bonus.   

I am not influenced by Kepler's frigid start but why the Twins haven't traded him is inexplicable to me. He has a couple of tools but love of the game does not seem to be one of them.

While Correa was in the gym, Max was in Paris. Hot tip, Max: France will still be there when your career is over.    

Just a question. And I'm not against trading him. But if you were the GM, what would you be looking for in return? Because I think that's why he hasn't moved. The asking price might be too high.

[DocBauer]

Not going to find a bigger fan of Arraez than me. And I miss him. And he did a great job as the leadoff hitter, doing what he's supposed to do, which was hit and get OB. But he's gone, and the Twins need to find the best option(s) to replace him against RHP until someone grabs the spot.

The problem here is perception and definition:

1] The LEADOFF hitter is a term used almost since baseball began. I even use it. The problem is it should be TABLESETTER by action. And even at that, a LEADOFF hitter bats FIRST ONE TIME A GAME, guaranteed. If things fall a certain way, they MIGHT hit first an additional time in a game, maybe second. 

2] There is a very logical arguement that batting your best hitters in the #1-4/5 spots makes the most sense as they get the most opportunities at the plate in a game, and throughout the season. The issue there is, even in a great lineup, your last 2-4 hitters are the "worst" of your team. So following that norm, do you necessarily want one of your best power/RBI threats to follow your weakest hitters throughout the rest of the game? 

And that's where the rubber meets the road. You want someone who can hit a little, get OB a little, and have enough power/pop to be not only a TABLESETTER for the bats behind him, but who can advance runners and knock in runners from the bottom of the lineup when they actually perform and get OB!

As limited as Kepler is as a #1 hitter, he has something like a .760-.770 career OPS against RHP. That's not great, but it's OK. And after a good ST, a poor first THREE GAMES doesn't change that fact. Gallo has an even better career OPS overall, and can be more dangerous in that spot than Kepler, knocking in runs when/if runners from the bottom of the order are OB. But because he has more pure power, the Twins are wanting him to hit lower, behind the "better" bats ahead of him than the bottom of the order hitters. So they are looking at and hoping Kepler will simply be what he's always been, which is an OK hitter with decent contact and OB, with decent speed and good base running, and solid power, to knock in some guys, keep an inning going, and help set the table for the next few batters.

I am NOT saying the bottom of the lineup stinks. And I'm not saying Kepler is anything close to being ideal in the #1 spot. I'm just stating why he's viewed initially as the best option for that spot now. He has the potential to not be great, but do a little bit of everything there for the moment.

Buxton's surge as a power hitter, with speed and solid base running, without a career proven AVG and OB, makes him perfect as a run producer hitting lower than the 1 spot. It's only SSS in his career, and a great ST, and 3 games to begin 2023, but why on earth would anyone want Larnach to hit anywhere other than in the heart of the order?

I can't wait for Polanco to be back. And a 100%, or close to it, Polanco is maybe best as a #3 hitter who can do everything well. That provides production, slides everyone down for a deeper lineup, but might not be his best spot AS THE TEAM IS BUILT CURRENTLY. When he's back, he might be the best #1 hitter until someone like Julien or Lewis is ready to take over. 

Heck, it's only been THREE GAMES. But if Gordon gets untracked, his 2022 had a .743 OPS with some budding pop and he has speed to play with. He and Farmer/Solano might be a perfect combo at the #1 spot until things change. And I'd be looking at that as an idea over the next few games.

[Johnny Ringo]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Just a question. And I'm not against trading him. But if you were the GM, what would you be looking for in return? Because I think that's why he hasn't moved. The asking price might be too high.

Well, to give a really fulsome answer would take awhile. But to keep it short; sometimes in baseball, as in love, it’s just better to move on. 

[twinfan]

The leadoff batter has changed somewhat in that some teams use a power hitter while others use an on base hitter. We have several choices but none are great though Buxton would be my choice right now. I like Gordon but am not sure he can hit enough. Gallo is a waste anywhere he bats. Kepler will be ok but leadoff???. Lewis would be great when he gets better. Most others are a big question mark. Let's just keep winning.

[Scott51104]

When Kepler leads off, that is one less inning that he ends. 

 

It's OK with me if Kepler leads off the first and makes the last out of the first.

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, umterp23 said:

And it continues.  The Kepler Struggle Tour continues

 

But the 30 some million slow starter .154 is not a problem…… 

3 games. I hope they don’t bench Miranda. 

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Not going to find a bigger fan of Arraez than me. And I miss him. And he did a great job as the leadoff hitter, doing what he's supposed to do, which was hit and get OB. But he's gone, and the Twins need to find the best option(s) to replace him against RHP until someone grabs the spot.

The problem here is perception and definition:

1] The LEADOFF hitter is a term used almost since baseball began. I even use it. The problem is it should be TABLESETTER by action. And even at that, a LEADOFF hitter bats FIRST ONE TIME A GAME, guaranteed. If things fall a certain way, they MIGHT hit first an additional time in a game, maybe second. 

2] There is a very logical arguement that batting your best hitters in the #1-4/5 spots makes the most sense as they get the most opportunities at the plate in a game, and throughout the season. The issue there is, even in a great lineup, your last 2-4 hitters are the "worst" of your team. So following that norm, do you necessarily want one of your best power/RBI threats to follow your weakest hitters throughout the rest of the game? 

And that's where the rubber meets the road. You want someone who can hit a little, get OB a little, and have enough power/pop to be not only a TABLESETTER for the bats behind him, but who can advance runners and knock in runners from the bottom of the lineup when they actually perform and get OB!

As limited as Kepler is as a #1 hitter, he has something like a .760-.770 career OPS against RHP. That's not great, but it's OK. And after a good ST, a poor first THREE GAMES doesn't change that fact. Gallo has an even better career OPS overall, and can be more dangerous in that spot than Kepler, knocking in runs when/if runners from the bottom of the order are OB. But because he has more pure power, the Twins are wanting him to hit lower, behind the "better" bats ahead of him than the bottom of the order hitters. So they are looking at and hoping Kepler will simply be what he's always been, which is an OK hitter with decent contact and OB, with decent speed and good base running, and solid power, to knock in some guys, keep an inning going, and help set the table for the next few batters.

I am NOT saying the bottom of the lineup stinks. And I'm not saying Kepler is anything close to being ideal in the #1 spot. I'm just stating why he's viewed initially as the best option for that spot now. He has the potential to not be great, but do a little bit of everything there for the moment.

Buxton's surge as a power hitter, with speed and solid base running, without a career proven AVG and OB, makes him perfect as a run producer hitting lower than the 1 spot. It's only SSS in his career, and a great ST, and 3 games to begin 2023, but why on earth would anyone want Larnach to hit anywhere other than in the heart of the order?

I can't wait for Polanco to be back. And a 100%, or close to it, Polanco is maybe best as a #3 hitter who can do everything well. That provides production, slides everyone down for a deeper lineup, but might not be his best spot AS THE TEAM IS BUILT CURRENTLY. When he's back, he might be the best #1 hitter until someone like Julien or Lewis is ready to take over. 

Heck, it's only been THREE GAMES. But if Gordon gets untracked, his 2022 had a .743 OPS with some budding pop and he has speed to play with. He and Farmer/Solano might be a perfect combo at the #1 spot until things change. And I'd be looking at that as an idea over the next few games.

This is 100% why they should be playing matchups with that days starters when the prototypical lead off hitter isn’t on your roster. If you have a hitter that matches up well many of the other factors fade away.  Getting your best hitters more ABs in favorable situations will pay off short and long term. In one game having a looming bad matchup can make a manager go to the bullpen earlier than he may want or you get one more favorable AB. Over the course of the season the composite #1 hole hitter should look like a pretty darn good player. 

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

Arraez was fun to watch, because he always battled and often found a way to scratch out a single after a long at bat. That said, he was fourth in MLB in batting average but only 28th in OPS, which every baseball analyst will tell you is a far better measuring stick of offensive output than batting average, which weights a single and a home run equally. Arraez hits singles.

Compare stat lines from last year:
(in order batting average, on base percentage, slugging average, OPS):

.316  .375  .420  .795

.311  .425  .686  1.111

Arraez is the first column - and yes, he led the AL in batting average (at the lowest level in several decades). The second column is Aaron Judge, who had a phenomenal offensive year, hitting 62 homes runs (to Arraez' 8) and also significantly more walks (which is why his OBP was higher), and also 16 steals to 4 for Arraez. 

As Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner said, “singles hitters drive Fords and home run hitters drive Cadillacs.”

I don't think a player needs to be perhaps disparaged, or an accomplishment that every player that plays the game would like to have in their career diminished to make something or someone else look good. And that is the attitone I get from this discussion about Arraez. No one is saying that an extra base hit is not better than a single (but any hit is welcomed in the first at bat of a game). Fans can miss players and lament their not playing with the Twins as a stand alone. People are not fantasy teams or video games. Value comes in many forms. And personalities. And entertainment. Believe it or not, some enjoy a scrappy 10 pitch at bat more than a home run. Some even enjoy a longer game to pass the time with, even with all the idiosyncrasies and delays. 

Even Rod Carew won a batting title (1972) with a .319 average. In 2021 the American League title was .319. 2022 and 2021 American League runner ups hit .311. (One was Judge) Every year is relative and a stand alone. Not to be disparaged. Different balls, different pitchers, worse umpires (maybe better ;-) ....... 

Arraez is missed. And his value is and was a plus to this team, and any team.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

I don't think a player needs to be perhaps disparaged, or an accomplishment that every player that plays the game would like to have in their career diminished to make something or someone else look good. And that is the attitone I get from this discussion about Arraez. No one is saying that an extra base hit is not better than a single (but any hit is welcomed in the first at bat of a game). Fans can miss players and lament their not playing with the Twins as a stand alone. People are not fantasy teams or video games. Value comes in many forms. And personalities. And entertainment. Believe it or not, some enjoy a scrappy 10 pitch at bat more than a home run. Some even enjoy a longer game to pass the time with, even with all the idiosyncrasies and delays. 

Even Rod Carew won a batting title (1972) with a .319 average. In 2021 the American League title was .319. 2022 and 2021 American League runner ups hit .311. (One was Judge) Every year is relative and a stand alone. Not to be disparaged. Different balls, different pitchers, worse umpires (maybe better ;-) ....... 

Arraez is missed. And his value is and was a plus to this team, and any team.

The last American League batting champion with an average lower than Arraez' 2022 .316 was Carl Yastrzemski's .301 in 1968. Facts are facts.

Through 5 games, Arraez has 11 total bases, but all but 1 are singles. The Twins are scoring most of their runs via the long ball or extra base hits. It's been that way in baseball for a long time. For the Twins, he also wouldn't have an ideal position - they have far better defensive second basemen, and he is not meant for the corner infield positions because of his lack of power. He is also not fleet of foot.

I'll grant you Arraez will hit over .300, and I already said I enjoyed watching him play and those 'scrappy' at bats. That said, I enjoy seeing the Twins win even more - and I would argue this year's line-up has the potential to do more of that with Lopez and without Arraez than the other way around. I also think they have a better chance of winning a play-off game with Lopez starting one of them than by trading him for a few Arraez singles.

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

The last American League batting champion with an average lower than Arraez' 2022 .316 was Carl Yastrzemski's .301 in 1968. Facts are facts.

Through 5 games, Arraez has 11 total bases, but all but 1 are singles. The Twins are scoring most of their runs via the long ball or extra base hits. It's been that way in baseball for a long time. For the Twins, he also wouldn't have an ideal position - they have far better defensive second basemen, and he is not meant for the corner infield positions because of his lack of power. He is also not fleet of foot.

I'll grant you Arraez will hit over .300, and I already said I enjoyed watching him play and those 'scrappy' at bats. That said, I enjoy seeing the Twins win even more - and I would argue this year's line-up has the potential to do more of that with Lopez and without Arraez than the other way around. I also think they have a better chance of winning a play-off game with Lopez starting one of them than by trading him for a few Arraez singles.

Yes, I reviewed the batting champ's lists/complete history, too. I'm not really trying to "argue" anything, here. Thanks for doubling/tripling+ down and reinforcing everything already stated, though. I appreciate it. If you told me one more time I can remember it even better. 😇

[jkcarew]

Someone with a higher OBP than Buxton and less power. And Buxton won't be steeling bases this year. At all.

I don't see it as that complicated, but it's a bit amusing how very very badly Rocco wants to use a lefty against RH pitching.

I'd go with Correa, and forget about it. Even his OBP against RH pitching is as good/better than any of our left-handed bats. And we don't need his power deeper in the lineup, looks like the power options are fairly plentiful.

Correa is so obvious, IMO, that it makes me think he might have indicated he doesn't want it, or isn't comfortable there?

[h2oface]

Ha. And Kepler leads off with a homer, and then beats out an infield single (2-3 for the day) in the 4th, and then has to leave the game with a knee thing? So he looked the part in the 4th game, and then might be out for a spell, and the adventure will continue?

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/max-kepler-exits-game-with-injury-x7582?t=opening-week

[TopGunn#22]

This all depends on the health of Polanco and Kirilloff but I expect sometime this season Julien to end up being that leadoff hitter.  In the meantime, I'd move Buxton to the leadoff spot.  Kepler has no business being there until he shows some kind of sustained positive production.  Gallo should hit #6 or #7.  Gordon is a possibility against RH pitching but if Julien hits well and gets on base at a high rate and Polanco and Kirilloff are slow to come back, or, come back and get hurt again I see Julien getting the call sometime in June.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This all depends on the health of Polanco and Kirilloff but I expect sometime this season Julien to end up being that leadoff hitter.  In the meantime, I'd move Buxton to the leadoff spot.  Kepler has no business being there until he shows some kind of sustained positive production.  Gallo should hit #6 or #7.  Gordon is a possibility against RH pitching but if Julien hits well and gets on base at a high rate and Polanco and Kirilloff are slow to come back, or, come back and get hurt again I see Julien getting the call sometime in June.

I don't see the value in rushing Julien. Granted, he played college ball in the SEC, but a comparison to Polanco is reasonable. Polanco's path through the minors was a year at A+/AA, a year at AA/AAA, and a year split between AAA and the Twins. Julien did his first year at A/A+, then a year primarily at AA. I think a full year at AAA is the likely path, with a September 'take a look' call up a possibility. Lewis will be back in the second half of the year, and it is far more likely if they still need a hand at 2B, he's more ready. That said, Farmer/Gordon looks like a perfectly fine platoon there if Polanco has extended downtime. It's also possible Polanco comes back and takes over more DH at bats from Buxton, and he goes to the outfield.