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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    For context, Varland is over one year older than the average competition in his Low-A league…while Balazovic is nearly 3 years younger than his average AA competition. Still, no way to look at Balazovic’s numbers this year and conclude anything other than that he struggled significantly. For those that want the FO to push the top prospects…this is what you’re going to get more often than not. I don’t think it’s anything to be too worried about…but it seems clear he’s not ‘close’.
  2. jkcarew
    Still, a disappointing season. Sitting at 30 innings right now…and still somehow K rate is below league average, although better than last year. Of course, he’ll have a chance (presumably) to make up for all that in the post season…and he has been good lately. Dodgers may have figured out how to deal with Graterol’s chronic injury/durability issues: not only keep him in the bullpen, but also shut him down at least twice per season. They can afford that approach with the quality depth of their pitching…and with no worries to make the postseason.
  3. jkcarew
    Sure…but how many playoff runs have been made when the top guy in the rotation is consistently outmatched? Very, very few. The exceptions…(e.,g. Brewers, Royals) are just that: exceptions.
  4. jkcarew
    I agree that Berrios is a top 30 guy…at least that’s what he’s been in 2021…and he’s definitely young enough to improve going forward. But, if you don’t like this trade, does that mean you’d rather have had the only likely alternatives in the real world: trading him in the off-season or at next year’s deadline for LESS value? Because, otherwise you’d have to believe that Berrios represented the difference between what we’ve seen this year and serious pennant contention in 2022.
  5. jkcarew
    Someone who provides an advantage in top-of-the rotation postseason matchups. And significantly enhances the teams odds of winning random matchups during the regular season. I think that is true even with ‘great’ pitchers only going 6-7 innings. Berrios is not an ace. But I do think he’s still young and that 2021 could be a step toward that status.
  6. jkcarew
    Still, he’s 2nd on the team in RBI. A few more than Donaldson, in the same number of PA, and with 60+ more K’s. The thing with all guys with ridiculous power…they are ALWAYS in an RBI situation.
  7. jkcarew
    Yes, Escobar’s had a great year. Yes, he’s a good guy to have around. But he’s not going to be anyone’s every day shortstop, no matter what defensive metrics might (erroneously) say.
  8. jkcarew
    Just one question… Do the Yankees need Kepler to take Aaron Judge’s spot in the lineup or Joey Gallo’s?…or Giancarlo Stanton’s or Luke Voit’s or DJ LeMahieu’s, or maybe the returning Aaron Hick’s?? Can’t think of a less motivated team, maybe ever, to go after a 100-105 ish OPS+ corner outfielder that can sorta spot in center and maybe possibly play first or DH. The Yankees interest in Twins (position players with the MLB club) probably begins with Buxton and ends with Donaldson…both risks. Buxton for the possibilities, and Donaldson because they’re ‘weak’ at 3rd. Maybe Arraez to bolster the 3B rotation and utility role.
  9. jkcarew
    Not buying this. Escobar couldn’t take the shortstop job from Polanco when Escobar was 27-28…he’s certainly not going to do it at 33. Here are the SS’s that have played the position for Escobar’s teams in the last three years…Nick Ahmed and Willie Adames. Adames is currently injured, and the Brewers responded by moving Luis Arias back over to short. Zero games for Escobar at short for the Brewers despite the injuries…but 9 at first base.
  10. jkcarew
    I think it’s fair to say Balazovic has found AA ball this year…challenging. Wouldn’t be shocked if that’s where he starts next year.
  11. jkcarew
    So…when active rosters expand to about 30?
  12. jkcarew
    Except for what still would have been a 2-run homer…and about 500 mph-worth of exit velocity this inning.
  13. jkcarew
    …or get ahead in the count.
  14. jkcarew
    Twins collectively realizing they need to get home and try to find what they did with their passports.
  15. jkcarew
    His HR% and HR/FB are suddenly Sano-like. And the contact was always pretty good. If anyone had seen that coming, he’d still be here. Or, at least we would have got more than Shaun Anderson in the trade.
  16. jkcarew
    One of the sneakiest, under-the-radar, silver linings of 2021 has been what Celestino has done in AAA this season.
  17. jkcarew
    I don’t quite get the angst over Simmons. The contract was well worth plugging a defensive whole at SS for a team that figured to mash and figured to contend. And it was a 1-year contract for a reason. The Twins thought they had an answer for 2022. Meanwhile, the defensive production has been about what was expected. The offense? wRC+ of 58 with a 250 BABiP. In 2019 it was 79 with a 277 BABiP. (Inflated BABiP in small sample last year.) I mean the difference just isn’t that material for the club that the Twins were supposed to be. Those that let things like his anti-vax stance color their opinion…well, that’s their prerogative. I don’t agree with Simmons decision in a team sport scenario, but it had zero impact on the season. Also, some here are super frustrated that he continues to play. It is frustrating. But it’s not Simmons fault.
  18. jkcarew
    Fwiw, not sure ‘most’ hold WAR as THE number, given how it can be significantly influenced by questionable and often just plain nonsensical defensive metrics. But, certainly not BA. Maybe OPS, wRC+…maybe WAR, but certainly not BA.
  19. jkcarew
    Not even close. And as has been mentioned…not even that close to the worse this year.
  20. jkcarew
    It’s an actual risk in the real world where resource constraints exist. It’s not a risk in an academic/theoretical sense if you assume no constraints on resources. In other words, it is, in fact, risky for the Twins. (Again, doesn’t mean it can never be justified.) Meanwhile, it’s not risky for the Dodgers and the Yankees. For them, it’s smart, because when it does go wrong…and it can go wrong…they can simply spend good money after bad to get themselves out of the whole.
  21. jkcarew
    Great job…lots of work and interesting numbers. Still, there’s great risk in mid-market teams extending huge long-term deals. Doesn’t mean it should never be done, but there’s huge risk. It’s called opportunity cost. What if you’re wrong?…and even if you’re right, you create other issues which can materialize sometimes sooner rather than later. We can pretend the Twins (and most other teams) can or ‘should’ look at it as in this analysis. But in fact only 2 or 3 teams can operate in this kind of a vacuum where the top guys can be targeted on a consistent basis.
  22. jkcarew
    You don’t mean Keon Broxton, do you? The Keon Broxton that spent all season proving that he can’t hit AAA pitching? The Keon Broxton that was released by the Saints and is now 0 for 4 with a walk and 3 K’s on Milwaukee’s rookie league team?
  23. jkcarew
    The issue with Dobnak is not how he’s been used or injuries…it’s that he’s eminently hittable. The only reasons to give him more chances are his age and the desperate pitching situation. Even the Twins can afford to eat the guaranteed portion of that contract. And I expect they will if Dobnak doesn’t turn a corner next year.
  24. jkcarew
    How about we look at OBP (if you refuse to consider OPS)…the rate at which players get on base as opposed to making outs? How does Austudillo look now?
  25. jkcarew
    Interesting and thoughtful take.
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