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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Every rule has an exception. The exception to this rule is when the 40-man roster only has about 5-7 position players that you hope DO play. That's where this club is....until the prospects are called up, the 25-man is guaranteed to be littered with mediocre (or worse) players that have zero future on an actual competitive major league club. No guarantee with the prospects, but at least they are "interesting" or players most would "want" to see play.
  2. jkcarew
    Make the wrong choice here, and the Twins could finish 4th or 5th in the division.
  3. jkcarew
    I don’t think doubting or pessimism is the same as “wanting to fail”. There’s a ton of objective evidence that the K’s can and will undo him if he can’t improve fairly significantly in that regard….no matter the power. Is he going to have Sano+ power? He’ll need it at this point. His K rate has been higher than Sano’s at pretty much every level. Even more so when considering Sano was younger at the upper levels. And against Spring Training pitching it’s been much worse yet. Rodriguez’s K rate has been 49% across his spring training PA’s, 43% this year. That’s against major league and 4-A pitchers that are not game planning against him. The walk rate has been below 10%. I do think he’s going to be a high BA BABiP guy, but not 750, as it was this spring. Also, it still seems he’s going to have some positive defensive value. A lot of work to do yet, IMO. Still, not against bringing him up at the slightest sign of improvement…because, why not. I can squint and still see a high ceiling. But the floor still feels subterranean to me.
  4. jkcarew
    Based on game availability, there might be a better chance he wins AL RoY in about 2031. Of course, there’s a 50% chance it would be NL RoY by that time.
  5. jkcarew
    The argument for begins and ends with “why not”. The argument against is he’s likely to K at about a 50% clip and walk at about 10% (if even that). In other words, he pretty clearly isn’t ready.
  6. jkcarew
    Outman is a true CF…Roden is not. Meanwhile Outman has been fine offensively…if we’re just looking at this spring (relative to Roden). About the only thing I see in Roden over Outman is that Roden is a couple years younger than Outman…which, admittedly, isn’t nothing. Rodriguez now has 25 K and 4 BB in 49 career spring training PA (8 and 1 in 17 PA this spring)…along with a 500 BABiP (667 this spring).
  7. jkcarew
    Good thing we didn’t trade him…or Lopez.
  8. jkcarew
    Difference in bWAR last year was 1 game…Ryan’s WHIP actually better. Peralta costs more now and about to become WAY more expensive after this season. Ryan very cheap now, and doesn’t hit free agency until 2028. The returns would be pretty similar. Price will never be higher for Ryan than it is right now, unless we get lucky at this year’s deadline.
  9. jkcarew
    The cold hard truth. Rodriguez at 60. Means…on average…each club has TWO prospects of whom BA thinks more than they do Rodriguez. I do think the Twins have a good share of arms with successful mlb reliever potential that are ready…or close enough given current situation/expectations.
  10. jkcarew
    The REALLY great thing about this… with majority ownership not changing hands, we can look forward to this unique brand of Falvey wizardry for the indefinite future!! My glass is always half-full. Right now it’s half full of Fluoroantimonic acid.
  11. jkcarew
    The floor for this club is in imminent danger of a violet collision…traveling at a very moderate pace, but about to rear-end the ceiling, seemingly unaware that the ceiling is completely stationary, just sitting in the middle of the road only about one win away, and obscured by a mysterious fog only apparent to the driver. Looks like it’s all going to go down at about mile-marker 73.89
  12. jkcarew
    Honestly, I think obsessing on #1 and #2 is a bit too optimistic. It assumes there will be a contending-level number of games to close and with high leverage. Too much…Ryan/Lopez healthy/very good/not traded, defense getting significantly better, better lineup health, WAY better lineup production…lots would have to go very right for that to be realistic, or at least, likely.
  13. jkcarew
    Paying $14M for a backup catcher makes perfect sense when you’re pinching pennies and have much bigger wholes elsewhere on the roster…right? It seems likely that they expect him to be the starting catcher sometime between now and the start of 2027. In the event that the 2027 season actually happens at some point. Yay!
  14. jkcarew
    The issue is many clubs also maintain a truly competitive top half of the roster, as well. Nobody cares about the bottom of the 40-man roster when the top half figures to be irrelevant. Human nature. Nobody cares about the difference between (for instance) 74 and 76 wins. It only matters when you’re talking about the difference between 90and 92 wins and/or an extra win somewhere in the playoffs. This organization has not (by a county mile) done anything for a very long time that would warrant these types of moves being perceived as anything other than total nothing-burgers. At best.
  15. jkcarew
    Does anyone REALLY think that avoiding arbitration would have made it more likely the Twins retain Ryan at free agency?? Against all evidence, recent and historical? If he maintains performance and health, it’s not happening regardless. Hoping he remains with the Twins beyond free agency is exactly the same as hoping his performance and/or health nosedive in the immediate future…as that’s the only way his price will be a realistic option for the Twins. Call it the Buxton chronic injury discount. We know this to be true. Best case is…and always has been…hope he remains great/healthy…and either ride him to a championship run and let him walk (obviously not happening), or trade him by the 2026 deadline.
  16. jkcarew
    I would characterize even 1 2026 inning in Wichita as quite fast…even if he wasn’t coming off TJ.
  17. jkcarew
    Impossible to know until he gets started.
  18. jkcarew
    No. He’s good for raising the floor for a club that already has a high ceiling…for insurance. Exactly the situation the Twins are NOT in. Ugh.
  19. jkcarew
    Mmmm…Bell’s OPS+ last year was down from the previous year and below him career average. He’s definitely not ‘great’, never has been. I think other than encouraging others to continue to work and make adjustments, that’s about all he can offer. Maybe easy to relate to in that he’s been mediocre for long stretches. Worth something, I guess. Still, I’d rather have a Nelson Cruz, a proven producer, who’s going to be setting an example (especially for righties) with 90% of his plate appearances…where you can just learn from watching him PA to PA and game to game. We kinda/sorta had that with Correa…now nobody fits that role…even a little bit.
  20. jkcarew
    Just keep him a minimum of 150 feet from any and all batting cages. Not allowed to even watch guys work on hitting. Can’t be too careful in this regard.
  21. jkcarew
    Informative article. Until this, I had no idea I liked Kyle Garlick.
  22. jkcarew
    Rodriguez…”A walk rate north of 20% paired with a strikeout rate above 30% is unusual, but Rodriguez still produced a 135 wRC+ in 2025 thanks to his power and elite strike zone awareness.” So unusual that it has zero chance of existing at the major league level, unless the power shows up in a massive way. However… …the 2025 135 wRC+ is NOT a product of power…his AAA power numbers are pedestrian…rather, almost exclusively a product of the freakishly high walk rate. Sustainable? The power better start showing up in a big, big way.
  23. jkcarew
    Definitely has the pedigree to teach these prospects how to curse at umpires in English, if nothing else.
  24. jkcarew
    Not fair. Each or these guys are just a couple handful of tweaks from being within shouting distance of average. Remember, this is the Minnesota Twins and the AL Central. Success has a very low bar…basically, don’t get mathematically eliminated from at least a wild card slot until the Vikings are in camp (and the trade deadline has come and gone). Have the stars align once every 3-5 years, and hang yet another ALC banner. Simple. And time-tested. Sure, those 90-win ALC seasons and first-round playoff massacres seem far away right now, but we’ll get back there in a few years. You’ll see. It doesn’t get any better than this! Not that it COULDN’T get better than this. It just DOESN’T get any better than this.
  25. jkcarew
    “If everything goes right the Twins can ‘compete’ in the AL Central”… …said absolutely everyone in absolutely every January in absolutely every year since 1994 when the ALC was created. Unfortunately, it only happens when you have a bunch of players for whom it always (or almost always) goes right.
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