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Johnny Ringo

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Everything posted by Johnny Ringo

  1. Didn't the Berrios trade and subsequent signing erase any ambiguity on this point? Buxton will be traded. " We really tried to sign Jose, uh sorry Byron, but we just couldn't pay those outrageous (market) numbers. We have to think about the club. " I sincerely wish Buck all the best. He's been hurt a lot of course, but he has the heart of a champion.
  2. I am a Reusse guy but this podcast segment was fantastic. I think Patrick and I were both bummed that it ended after an hour and 45 minutes. He hasn't had a drink in decades but I could sit in a bar with him all day. I took in a Twins spring training game a few years ago and found myself in a concession line behind Patrick. I had never met him but I start to chat him up, He was amicable in his curmudgeonly way. The conversation went on and we let people through the line as we talked. It was great. After I had bent his ear enough, I went back to my seat. My long-suffering wife said, "Uh. Two things. Where have you been and where's my hot dog?"
  3. Well, I think you missed the broader and more salient points. At even money, we have no shot at signing free agents for the aforementioned reasons. So if you are saying our salvation is by notably outspending others to reclaim significance, I wish you all good luck with that.
  4. This is plan B if Buck walks. What a depressing thought. Drinks are on me.
  5. John, I am big fan. I am a faithful listener to your podcast, including being a Patreon subscriber. But, your premise is flawed. A Twins dollar does not equal a MLB dollar. Why? Weather. What FA pitcher wants to throw the first two months of the season in 40 degree temps? None. Not including a roof on Target belongs in the Twins bonehead HOF. Taxes. For instance, Verlander will save at least $2.5 million ($50 million times 10% marginal tax rate divided by roughly two for residency nuances) in saved taxes But here counts the big discount. Irrelevancy. The Twins haven't truly competed in thirty years and have no chance to do so soon. What FA wants to sign up for that? How did we get Donaldson, our big FA coup? We paid him $100 million when no one else would. So what is that $20 million really worth? I don't know, but nowhere near $20 million in the eyes of the market. I have said this a few times but Twins fans need to stop thinking about who we want. We should only think in terms of who we can get.
  6. The truth is there is no certainty at all that Lewis is a MLB player let alone shortstop. He is two years on the shelf and he didn't exactly tear up AA. The conundrum is that the Twins have no chance to compete in 2022 but we will won't see a FA shortstop class like this for many years. That means the 3rd-7th options will trade cheaper than they would in a normal year. A real franchise would exploit that, get one of those guys and sort out Lewis later. But every day, I lose faith that the Twins are a serious franchise. If they let Buck go, that will exacerbate that perception. The Twins shouldn't worry about me but they should worry about that effect on any potential free agent signing. Also, given the Berrios experience, I wouldn't make Baez my first call.
  7. The Berrios contract could potentially say 3 or 4 things about the FO. All of them are somewhere between bad and really bad. I hope they don't sign Buxton. He is the most exciting player of his generation. Yes, he has been hurt a lot but those are for completely forgivable reasons. He deserves better than this club, for both general reasons (their greed at the expense of relevance) and idiosyncratic reasons (their September shenanigans with him). I hope he makes a lot of money and comes to wear a couple of rings. God's speed Buck.
  8. I'm not sure why the Heyman tweet is news. Everyone and everything is for sale always in Oakland. It's just a matter of price. If that sounds like a criticism, it is not. That is just business as usual there. No one has impacted the game more than Beane. Some love that, some lament it.
  9. This is just code for "we have no shot at signing any front-line free agent pitching that we sorely need". Innovation? Nah. Desperation.
  10. It's fun to talk about this stuff and dream. But the conversation is academic. None of these guys will sign with the Twins. None. They are all mega rich. Rings and legacy are now their currency. In their dreams, they think of October. What do the Twins have to offer in this regard? Nothing. I have said it before; Twins fans need to think in not who you want but who can responsibly get. The Twins are saddled with bad weather and bad taxes. But thirty years of play-off irrelevancy and no blueprint for near-term reversal effectively constitute a huge surcharge for the franchise. I'm sorry to take away the punch bowl from the crowd. It gives me no pleasure to say any of this. But Uber is here. This party is over.
  11. No one will take Sano at his salary next year ($10 million) and give back compelling compensation. He is a 29 year old DH. You are stuck with him for 2022. Kepler might bring back value. He is an above-average outfielder at a market price ($15 million over the next 2 years). As such he is a much better bargaining chip than Sano. The only caveat is that outfielders are experiencing a remarkable devaluation. The Braves reconstructed their entire outfield on the cheap midseason this year on their way to a a championship. (Lets all be happy for Eddie.) Players shouldn't be thought of as potentially possessing five tools but rather six. That sixth tool is affordability. Hopefully, the Cave and Garlick suggestion was made tongue-in-cheek. If you packaged them together, you might get a Lew Ford rookie card in exchange.
  12. You know the old adage about the FO listening to the fans. Listen to them and pretty soon you are sitting with them. My guess is that this is very close to a lock. As a follow-up; any guesses who the leader in career defensive WAR might be? Hint: (on a years adjusted basis its not very close)
  13. I love Cruz. But one year deals for a guy at the end of his (glorious) career are not significant.
  14. The premise is flawed by the notion that the Twins have at least an average chance to sign free agents. They don't. Not even close. The club has had only one significant free agent signing in recent memory. Donaldson. How did they do it? He had $100mm stuck in his mind and the Twins paid it when no one else would. Any roster construction discussion has to be based upon not who we want but who we can get. For a variety of reasons, (bad weather, bad taxes, decades of playoff irrelevancy) that is a very short list. For instance, there is a best chance that the Twins start selling BOGO beer than signing Javy Baez.
  15. If money wasn't an object, you would take them all and figure it out. With these guys, there are no bad choices, just bad prices.
  16. I'm not sure I offered up any facts, but here are some facts. They spent nothing on pitching last year and got what they paid for. They were 17th in overall payroll in 2021 ( source: MLB) . They finished dead last in the worst division in baseball. They had 89 losses which sounds bad but their performance, in fact, is worse than that because they played in the worst division in baseball. They dealt a proven and very valuable asset (Berrios) in an area where they are woefully deficit (pitching) for two uncertain assets( prospects). I could go on but I guess that is enough cheery facts for one post.
  17. You never know about this "ace" stuff. The Yankees would almost certainly tear up Cole's contract if they could. It seems that Cole, minus the goop, is just a good pitcher. The Steinbrenners didn't pay for that. They didn't pay for the Boston performance. The Twins had a dependable "almost ace" ( let the debates fly) in Berrios and they sent him packing only because he wanted a market rate for his services and that was the only reason. As we all enter winter, the Twins enter into another long winter of their own. We have no chance to truly compete in 2022 and the Twins have no belly to spend to make it otherwise. They sell hopes and dreams and are bereft of any ideas to make them come true. Realty is often harsh. Reality is often cruel. But, this is our reality.
  18. In a salary cap league (of the Twins' own imposition) Kepler is expendable, certainly at his 2022 salary. He needs to be dealt for pitching and his salary diverted to more pitching. No one will take Sano at his 2022 expense. On any other team, he is a DH and a DH only. To say his defense "leaves something to be desired" must be a quote from his kindly aunt.
  19. Death, taxes, a Yankees loss. The route is often different but the destination is always the same.
  20. The Twins are the amongst the last to eat at the free agent trough because of climate, high state taxes, and thirty years of play-off irrelevancy . Twenty nine teams passed on him, so I am 100% sure that 99% of MLB would not disagree with me.
  21. In a salary cap league (the one that the Twins self-impose); yes it was inexplicable. Because it surely came out of the pitching budget. With our first half pitching, you could have had Ozzie Smith and the Holy Trinity at short and it wouldn't matter. Simmons is a 1.0 WAR guy. If teams like the Twins spend $10 million per incremental win, they are doomed. Front offices are paid to understand this stuff. So was it inexplicable? Yes. It was inexplicable.
  22. Dobnak's contract is an inexplicable move in a series of inexplicable moves (Simmons, Happ, Shoemaker, the discount bin bullpen) this year by the front office. Ascribing any value, either positively or negatively, to Spring Training stats is buying fool's gold. He is a nice story. He seems like a nice man. But like Astudillo, Cave and a couple of others, he has no place on a legitimate major league roster. The danger of the contract is that it places pressure, either explicitly or implicitly, on the manager to keep trotting him out there. Falvine apparently wanted to play the lotto with this signing. The team needs to chew innings this year? Fine. But that's all it should be be. Like almost all lottery tickets, this one has expired worthless.
  23. I have to chuckle when people say Falvey/Levine deserve a hall pass because they won the Central Division a couple of times It was, by far, the worst division in baseball . We should view this in the same way as winning our neighborhood bowling league. Congrats! You bested the gal down the street with the bad hip and Pete, from next door, who is just there to get away from his wife. The value of winning the Central? We saw that in the play-offs. We have no chance to win in 2022 and no real stomach to compete for talent at market prices. The Berrios trade ratified both of these ideas. If the front office says otherwise it is only because they are rightfully terrified of the gate next year. I agree that we should not spend on a high-priced FO pitcher next year. To what end? To win 70 games rather than 65? The good news is that I have every faith that this ownership group will religiously follow my advice.
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