Harrison Greeley III

It's been strange to me how little I've seen about Falvey and Levine's contracts with respect to the lack of front office activity this past winter and in July. They're both going to courted this fall if they haven't been extended. They've appeared to be relatively checked out. But it's less noticeable since they've had such significant contributions from past investments. I have a hard time believing a team with 1. Ownership laser-focused on the balance sheet handcuffing how you do your job. 2. No TV deal in sight. while the farm system they've built is blossoming is a situation where either of them can be happy. Maybe they don't want to start over and/or maybe their families don't want to move, but there's a price that can overcome those concerns. As much as people complain about their shortcomings (I've got my gripes too) they've been net-successful here, They are going to be very marketable this fall. I'm actually going to be surprised if they stay. That's a bummer.

I just want to say blasting the intro to 'Smooth' every time he strikes out at Target Field all these years is a fantastic long-running gag. I'm going to pass on liking this idea, but I would get it if they did.

Wow! HAHAHA Post-spidertack ban, his off-speed stuff hasn't really dropped off in spin-rate, but that fastball is down a little more than 170 RPM. If he is to bounce back, he needs those RPMs back on the fastball (which would help his change-up) and he would benefit from an east/west sweeper-type pitch in the mix. I'd lean toward passing on this project. But the bounce-back is a real possibility.

It seems like a foregone conclusion Sonny Gray will reject the qualifying offer. But the set of circumstances with him make it a bit more complicated: - 34 years old - 4 IL stints in 2022 and 3 in 2021 - Coming off a career year - Publicly acknowledged he was considering retirement next year in July - Will cost a draft pick This has a lot of ingredients of a '(Free Agent X) is still out there unsigned' storyline in February. I wouldn't bet on it, but it seems like the chance of him accepting the 1yr/$20m qualifying offer is more non-zero than currently perceived.

Anyone who lived through 1987 and 1991 should know the value of crowd noise. Anyone who has run some other form of long distance knows the pick-up from people cheering as you pass. I love taking a data-based, scientific approach to baseball. But stress and confidence can't be scientifically measured accurately. Nevertheless, those 2 ideas are real. The Twins went 0-18 because they played tense and stressed-out while the other teams played confidently. Nobody hits well when they're stressed out. Mistake pitches and fielding errors are made under duress. Those 1987 and 1991 teams were virtually unbeatable in the post-season with a loud crowd behind them. They were quite beatable without the crowd.

Ober's only start since July 7th without giving up a homer was Oakland last week. He's going to need run support against Verlander. But he gave up 7 HR in September. So it's not out of the question.

I've been assuming the shoulder issues he was dealing with in March have taken away his ability to swing confidently for power. It seems like one of those things that he can play through, but in August or next season he'll get hot and he will make comments like 'my shoulder is healthy again after a long time of not being right, etc.'

The scouting report seems very obvious that he will hurt your fastball, so therefore throw him 4 off-speed pitches for every one fastball you hope he fouls off. In the early going of 2023, he seems to have made the adjustment to avoid chasing. For a little small sample size fun, he only swung at 18% of pitches outside the strike zone this weekend. He hit 100% of the pitches he swung at inside the strike zone this weekend. Who knows how that looks in the long run, but with health I'm very excited about him and I agree about him being the lead-off hitter choice. As for Kepler, the Twins have to accept that he was one of the greatest beneficiaries of the 2019 juiced ball. And without that ball, he is a defensive replacement/injury depth insurance. That's hard for me to accept. But at this point I have to.

If Lewis turns out to be a solid but not spectacular major-leaguer, I will be perfectly content with it. If Lee turns out to be a solid but not spectacular major-leaguer, I will be a little disappointed.

I know, 14 out of 57 appearances. Great. I'm mainly referring to an example like August 3rd. Or September 15th This is what the Twins had in mind to win. To their credit, they did win these games. They went 2 rounds through with the SP. Then the bullpen got 12-15 outs. There was a degree of success, but not nearly often enough to justify the strategy. I'd get a bad feeling as Dick Bremer would congratulate the bullpen on such a great job on games like this. It's not going to work long run in the course of a season to consistently use 5-6 pitchers to win. It can work in a playoff run, but usually that requires elite bullpen depth. But even then that's just a month.

If the minimization of plate appearances 3rd through the order is going to continue as a priority of this front office, then forget spending big on starting pitching. Because why pay someone the Correa money to go through the order just twice? Bullpen depth is the #1 priority for this team. What they did with their bullpen in 2022 was unsustainable and it showed in the win total as the season played out. If the bullpen is to be depended upon for 12-15 outs so frequently, then so be it. I get the 'why.' The Twins' problem is the current 'how' is garbage. There are 2 things I hope they consider. 1. They have 2 guardrails in place for relievers. They usually pull them after 1 inning and they try not to pitch them 2 days in a row. This causes the frequency of relievers warming up to increase. That is very bad for effectiveness in the long run. I remember Matt Belisle talking about this as a reason why relievers preferred pitching in the AL. You had to warm up constantly without a DH which hurt health and effectiveness. I would favor more 6 out appearances and leave the avoidance of 2 days in a row in tact. If Kenta Maeda is to become a swingman again, fine. If he can get 6-9 outs or that 3rd time through the order twice a week, that could be a huge long run boost. They have others suited for this role in Varland and Winder. Maybe they could make an Archer type signing with this role in mind. 2. If they remain true to the 'only twice thru' strategy, it is time to consider a 4 man rotation. This would allow for an extra roster slot to be used in a swingman rotation. The pitching staff could look like this. SP, SP, SP, SP Swing, Swing, Swing RP, RP, RP, RP, RP, RP or Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober Varland, Winder, Maeda Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, Sands, FA This puts them in a position to use the bullpen for 6 outs a game more regularly and 12-15 outs less regularly, allowing a better regimen for relievers throughout the course of a season. Last year Levine said they needed to be creative on pitching solutions. If they're not going to spend big on pitching, I say try it this way.

He's not THAT bad. He posted a wRC+ of 97 last season and a 95 this season. Combined with his defense that was good for 2.3 and 2.0 fWAR respectively. With the shift rule change, there's a decent probability that the wRC+ goes into triple digits next year. If you look at him as a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement, that's actually pretty good. The approx. $7m he's going to make next year is couch change to the likes of the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees. I don't think it's out of the question that one or more of them inquire about a 2 WAR defensive replacement that can fill in during IL stints. If they trade him, they're going to need additional outfield depth anyway. Whether or not it happens, there won't be a bad outcome either way.

I'm under the assumption that he doesn't hit free agency till age 30. The Twins have his 20s under contract. What exactly would be the added benefit of paying a premium price for his next 5 years? If he plays at an All-Star level for these years, I'm fine with him being expensive in arbitration. You usually do these extensions for someone on pace to hit free agency at age 26-28, padding the contract with extra team option years till the player turns 30-32.

I didn't get a chance to respond to this. He sat out there for a loooong time last winter after a 6.3 fWAR season. He's currently on pace to come up short of 3 fWAR this season. A month ago I would have said he definitely opts out. Now I've got it closer to a coin flip. I still could see him opting out, but I don't think anyone is going to pay him at a $35m per year rate. I think he'd be looking at something closer to the Javy Baez deal (6yr, 140m). But maybe he'd prefer the 140m in guaranteed money over a longer time frame instead of the 70m over the next 2 years. I could see the rationale either way.

I'm enjoying this regular season. It's preferable to being terrible for six months. They have players who take great at-bats that are fun to watch. That being said, they are clearly in the 2nd tier of the AL with TB/BOS/TOR/SEA. The Yankees and Astros are the top tier. The Yankees in particular have outscored every MLB team and have given up the fewest runs in the AL. No matter what the Twins do at the deadline, their playoff chances hinge on whether or not the Yankees somehow choke in October. And even if they do, Houston has to choke as well. But I think the 'Twins should be sellers' thing is non-sense. They have a maturing crop in Kirilloff/Miranda/Ryan/Duran/Larnach/Jeffers/Jax/Celestino developing this year to pair with Buxton/Arraez/Polanco in 2023-25. There's a value in gaining the experience they're all getting this year, They're a winning team full of young players trying to maintain a division lead. This is better for development than dozens of games that essentially amount to garbage time experience. I would be fine with them relatively standing pat with a Terry Ryan-esque deadline, just getting a couple modest, helpful pickups for the bullpen at the deadline and not paying a big price for them. I don't want them being aggressive buyers or sellers. I'm fine with an 85-90 win 2022, theoretically prepping them to launch into the top tier in 2023-27. And I think that's the likeliest scenario for how the front office sees it too.

I think at some point this summer Miguel Sano will get hot in St. Paul. And hopefully this year the Twins can sidestep that first month or so when he fouls off meatballs before striking out. The prospect of maximizing the benefit of a streak in the wake of some IL stint in the second half is more enticing to me than giving something up for Nellie.

The worst possible outcome when this deal was signed was that he'd be chronically hurt or slumping and then they'd be stuck with an expensive question mark for 2 more seasons. Anything other than that would be a good outcome. If he opts out, the Twins will deploy that money elsewhere. In the meantime they got a 4-6.5 WAR player on a sweetheart one year deal, helping turn a bad/mediocre season into a fun one. It's a much better problem to have a lot of cash after good player walks than to be stuck with a 37 year old, sub-.400 SLG Josh Donaldson. I still can't believe the Yankees let the Twins do this.

My speculative narrative for what I think happened: I'm going to assume that after such a bad 2021, Wes had to start thinking about his future if 2022 went just as poorly. Considering the Twins made so few bullpen acquisitions (and traded their best reliever) this created a lot of pressure on Wes to deliver results. So I'm guessing he picked up his networking efforts in the 21-22 offseason at the college level ahead of a real possibility he would be fired after this year. Then I'm guessing those efforts revealed that for recruiting efforts, top programs saw a big value in a major pitching coach with some success. In addition, people really like this guy. He has a good mindset and approach. So I'm also going to make an assumption that he interviewed (casually) very well and probably not just with LSU. Aside from the strong resume, programs experienced his interpersonal skills and saw how valuable that skillset would be for recruiting. From there, Wes was thinking this was the move regardless of the outcome for the rest of 2022. If LSU foresaw the same future for Wes, they'd likely be in a bidding war for him with other top programs in the fall. So they needed to be aggressive now. It would also allow Wes to help with recruiting efforts sooner than later. Seeing the money in hand, Wes took it just in case the Twins pitching staff continued to struggle and front office didn't make significant reinforcements in July. Total dick move as a professional that likely burns any future bridges for him in MLB. It makes so little sense to me and these were the only dots I could connect.

Fair point. They were quiet in July last year with relievers. I was sloppyon the wording but the Braves do prioritize top tier bullpen depth. This offseason for example they already had Will Smith, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek, and AJ Minter but they still acquired Kenley Jansen and Kirby Yates.

I'm glad the bullpen is the top point. The way playoff baseball is now played, dominant bullpen depth is more important than top tier starting pitching. The Twins fanbase knows playoff success via Viola/Blyleven, Jack Morris, and Johan Santana. But right now a starting pitcher's job in the playoffs is to merely get through the order twice, unless it's a blowout. The Braves don't hoard relievers in July every year coincidentally.

I'm going to speculate that the velocity on all of his pitches improving from last year has something to do with a mindset that he's only going out there for 4. It seems like the options are for him to throw 93-94 for 4 innings or 91-92 for 6 innings. Option A gives you a much better chance to win a game, so that appears to be the game plan. I'm fine with this. I'm actually wondering if you start seeing this more often with their scrap heap signings.

There's some optimism on his statcast page. They've got him with an xSLG of .444 which means there's bad luck in his .303 SLG. He barrels the ball pretty frequently too at 8.7 barrels/PA. There are only 25 MLB hitters better than that. For catchers he's 14th in hard hit %. So if he ever does fully figure it out he could be in the top 5 offensively. It's really tough to make sense of his chart on statcast. Whiff and chase rates are solid. BB% is very good. But he's a disaster on K%. Overall, it looks like he long runs into an average major league catcher with a hot streak likely on the way. And he can frame. I'm not really buying the alarm sound on him at this point.

I considered that when they signed him. They basically gave him Colome's 2021 allocation in the 2022 budget. But at this point I just don't know. In theory, when you transition to the pen you start throwing harder and narrow your repertoire down to 2, maybe 3 pitches. There's usually a heavy reliance on one off-speed pitch to pair off that (harder) fastball. Bundy's issue is that all his pitches are sub-par. So what becomes the focal point pitch?

Archer's last 2 starts were good after that article on him. Buxton's had 2 good games since the article calling for him to go on the IL. Let's go!!!

I went looking for an extra bat for fantasy baseball on StatCast yesterday. I tried sorting data a few different ways. I was pretty shocked to see him #9 overall when I sorted by barrel/PA.