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Harrison Greeley III

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Everything posted by Harrison Greeley III

  1. Harrison Greeley III
    Injuries and Covid happen. If you think there's a roster crunch issue, usually just waiting 48 hours for the issue to resolve itself is the best solution.
  2. Harrison Greeley III
    Thing I thought but didn't actually want to post yesterday: Like the opposite of a slump immediately following a nice Fangraphs article, this existence of this thread probably means good things for Archer's start tomorrow.
  3. Harrison Greeley III
    Berrios is an interesting - and correct - omission.
  4. Harrison Greeley III
    It's getting harder and harder to justify Nick Gordon occupying Royce Lewis' roster spot.
  5. Harrison Greeley III
    Donaldson made $10m more than the second highest paid player on the Twins in 2021. In New York, he's got several other highly paid vets on the team. Donaldson being the main force behind getting MLB to take foreign substances seriously combined with his perceived clout must have been awkward in the clubhouse. It had me wondering last year if his dialing up the criticism and the sudden up and down ineffectiveness of the pitching staff was more than a correlation.
  6. Harrison Greeley III
    I'm not a big fan of aggressive platooning, but I must admit they've found a nice rhythm here. I give Garlick a lot of credit because what he's doing - getting 2 PAs at the beginning of a game when a lefty starts or 1-2 PAs in the back half of a game when a righty starts - is tough to do mentally. Garlick has handled it really well.
  7. Harrison Greeley III
    I think I net-like it overall for that reason. You definitely have to string hits together. And also, lead off walks are huge (see the 9th inning on 5/22 and 5/23). But with strikeouts not coming down (yet, at least), the advantage pitchers have is a bit excessive. My stance on the shift ban issue went from neutral to solidly in favor assuming this ball is here to stay. If the strikeout rates remain high, hitters need a little help with the balls that are hit in play.
  8. Harrison Greeley III
    Really hard to feel the 'Rocco can't manage a bullpen' thing when it's May 23rd and they've won all but 1 game when they've scored 4 or more. They haven't lost many games they should have won. That's a credit to the bullpen and its management.
  9. Harrison Greeley III
    I think a big contributor to their success is the ball and the Twins adjusting to it relatively better than many teams. After their slow start, I'm seeing a focus on driving the ball to the opposite field gap on outer half pitches instead of home run swings to pull the ball. Examples being Miranda busting the game open on Saturday and Gary Sanchez already having as many opposite field doubles as he had last year (and he had only 1 in 2019). The ball is dying on the warning track and home runs are down 33% leaguewide. Despite being 10th in slugging at .394 and 12th in HR at 41, the Twins are 5th in wRC+ at 114. That being said, Houston outdid them on this when they came to Minnesota. We'll see how teams adjust for the remainder of the season. The other way the ball is suiting the team is that in the past Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan have had good outings with one or two home runs that seemed all but inevitable. The hope was no one would be on base when they happened. Those home runs are dying. Joe Ryan is sporting a 0.62 HR/9, down from 1.69 in 2021. Ober is 0.73 thus far, down from 1.95 in 2021. We'll see what happens as the weather warms.
  10. Harrison Greeley III
    He's being paid like a superstar that plays half the season. In my head I went into the season thinking everything north of 80 games is gravy. It's hard to overstate how great it is that Celestino is holding his own at the plate this year while playing plus defense. Buxton's bat is now his most important asset and probably will be throughout the remainder of his career. Increasing the chances of at least 120 games with that bat in the lineup is crucial.
  11. Harrison Greeley III
    May 4th, and it was the first time they scored >3 runs and lost.
  12. Harrison Greeley III
    This Rocco quote was pretty ominous for the next month or so for Kirilloff. "We just want to make sure when we're inserting him, we're not just inserting a guy that we think is healthy; we're inserting a guy that's ready to play and go out there and produce," https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-alex-kirilloff-rehab-assignment-to-continue/ Mentally, I've backed him up to at least Memorial Day. If Miranda has a good start, Larnach keeps this up, and Urshela offers no reason to be benched, it could be longer.
  13. Harrison Greeley III
    I think the obvious premise with this subject is that stress and confidence are difficult ideas to quantify, but they are nonetheless real. I define good chemistry as a framing for people to understand of a general good feeling of confidence and support among a group. Bad chemistry is a framing of a group going through a stressful time together, and support networks and trust are crumbling. Both confidence and stress are contagious. Correa, for example, has remained confident throughout his slump. He has a belief he can and will make the necessary adjustments even though before yesterday he was really scuffling. If others are stressed out about their own issues, that example being set makes a difference. And on the contrary, a cornerstone player struggling and showing the stress is getting to him is going to rattle the confidence of others around him. I'm of the belief that post-analytics, the manager's 1st and most important job is to keep the vibe among the team confident, loose, and supportive of each other. Stress is to be acknowledged and managed, but it can't find its way into the way the team plays. If you do any baseball task without confidence and/or stressed out, you will probably be far from your best. If you handled those tasks with a genuine belief of yourself and the people around you'll likely be closer to your best.
  14. Harrison Greeley III
    Loved the 6:3 righty/lefty ratio against a left-handed pitcher. It's harder for the pitcher to find a rhythm than when they go 8:1. I hope they continue it.
  15. Harrison Greeley III
    He's doing what he needs to be doing. He apparently read the writing on the wall that if he didn't start hitting outer half pitches to left-center (particularly against lefties), he was going to get shifted/dead-ball'ed out of the league. The spray chart is looking more even in the early going. That's a good sign.
  16. Harrison Greeley III
    Once again starting 8 right handed hitters against a lefty starting pitcher was a fairly ineffective tactic that helped the pitcher find a rhythm with nearly everyone except the one lefty who was able to disrupt it. It's just like when Johan Santana would dominate 8 White Sox hitters but then would give up a Jim Thome HR or two. I'm of course glad about the win. But how many times are are we going to do this till we face reality?
  17. Harrison Greeley III
    Sano's first month of the season splits for wRC+ 2022: 22 2021: 68 2020: -67 2019: 139 (Juiced ball, started in May) 2018: 97 With Sano, I've noticed that for the last few years he often fouls off or misses the biggest meatball of the at-bat in the first month. If only there was a way to have him in AAA till May. I also notice the 'See! I told you you needed to be patient with Sano!' tweets in June seem routine and inevitable at this point. This would be more painful if Miranda was raking in AAA. I take consolation in that he seems to be waiting for the weather to warm up too.
  18. Harrison Greeley III
    There are 8 million more reasons why it matters aside from validation. Get that money, Buck! https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/byron-buxton-17603/ Annual MVP Bonuses: 1st: $8M 2nd: $7M 3rd: $6M 4th: $5M 5th: $4M 6th-10th: $3M
  19. Harrison Greeley III
    His defense has always been primary to the conversation around him, but it is time to acknowledge his bat as his most precious asset. His defense has always been a marvel, of course. But his bat is even better and more important to the team now, Pitchers are now stressed out by his presence and it's affecting the way they pitch to the hitters in front of him. Chicago media right now is livid with LaRussa giving Buxton an attempt to beat the White Sox in the 10th. And he is doing all this in a time where pitchers have a cocktail of advantages over hitters with the ball, humidors, the new rosin, 28 man rosters, etc.
  20. Harrison Greeley III
    They really have to stop starting 8 righties vs. a lefty starter. I loved it when teams did this for Johan Santana because I knew he'd easily find a rhythm with his location and do well that night. The Twins did it for Kershaw and now they've just given Daniel Lynch a major confidence boost. They did this a lot last year and I don't recall it ever working.
  21. Harrison Greeley III
    I really don't see the harm in sprinkling in 20-30 games of Buxton at DH. Do it on getaway days once a week or something like how they would do it with Joe Mauer. His bat is more important than his defense at this point. He's had the 3rd best SLG since the beginning of 2019. Buxton, Polanco, and Correa are the guys in the lineup managers fear and will continue to fear. I'd be fine if all 3 of them were in the DH rotation. They need to stay healthy and it's a very minor mitigation tactic in the grand scheme of things. There's no true DH like Nelson Cruz this year, rest is good, and man do I hate having both Sano and Gary Sanchez in the same lineup. This seems logical to me. Just please don't put Jeffers back at DH again till we're confident he can hit at this level.
  22. Harrison Greeley III
    This is a play for a rebuilding team. Sign him for nothing, hopefully he sets a good example for young players in terms of going about his daily routine, and hopefully he gets hot for a flip in July. This does not make any sense for a lineup with Gary Sanchez and Miguel Sano to add another low batting average, 30% K% hitter.
  23. Harrison Greeley III
    I'd prefer him starting more against lefties. I'm slow to criticize Rocco, but I really don't like the 8-9 righties lineup vs. lefties thing he does. Heaney was in a rhythm throwing sliders down and in to righties. The lineup construction enabled that rhythm since he didn't have to change his approach for 8 straight hitters. This happens a lot. I'd rather Rocco go with a 7:2 or 6:3 ratio. Having Arraez in the order vs. a left handed starter is a disruptive presence. He often takes long at-bats and has more walks than strikeouts. (30SO/35BB career) Arraez has hit .261 career off lefties. For context, Sano has hit .247, 254SO/90BB. Gary Sanchez has hit .217, 160SO/74BB. Marco Gonzales aside, I've seen a lot of lefties get very comfortable vs. the Twins since 2020 and I'd like to see more of an effort to disrupt that comfort. Arraez does that. And even with a drop off in production, he's still a tough out with a .367 OBP vs. lefties.
  24. Harrison Greeley III
    Let's not forget Josh Donaldson, the biggest foreign substance whistleblower, is out of the clubhouse too. If the Twins pitching staff bounces back and the Yankees pitching declines in 2022.... well that'd be a fun coincidence.
  25. Harrison Greeley III
    There's a little drop off on the slider, but not that much. But yeah, perhaps it became more hittable as the fastball it paired with declined.
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