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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Just want to throw out a thank you for writing this. Really fun read.
  2. I'd first target the best pitchers that have yet to reach their 31st birthday. This seems to have been a long held strategy executed by the Giants, Red Sox, As, and Rays. Most of their pitching was acquired by trade or drafting. But even their FA SPs were signed, for the most part, prior to their 31st birthday. All of the guys they relied on this past season were. Resigning Pineda fits this rule as well, as he was originally acquired by the Twins prior to his 31st birthday. (Odorizzi and Martin Perez follow this strategy as well. That's hands down the two best SP acquisitions to date by this FO, making them 2/3 using this strategy. That success rate is phenomenally better than the rest of their SP acquisitions combined.)
  3. If a 7/$80 base is agreeable, the incentives almost don't matter, provided the total pay for any one year caps out at around $30mil or so. I certainly would pick nits at the proposal by @Andrew Mahlke, going for a lower guarantee with higher incentives, especially for 150 GP, but I don't think his proposal is unreasonable by any stretch. The data is pretty obvious over the previous three seasons combined that when Buxton is written onto the lineup card, the Twins are one of the best teams in MLB. His offense is fine, but the difference he makes on defense and on the bases is (IMO and the opinion of Eno Saris in a general sense) undervalued by the metrics. It goes to show that this doesn't have to be that difficult. If Buxton reaches 150 games played, the Twins are almost certainly in the playoffs and ownership is raking in that playoff related revenue to pay Buxton.
  4. I don't think there is a chance in hell Maggi comes back. His weekend call-up and sit was a national baseball talking point that got the Twins a lot of bad press. I would not go back to an org that did that to me. I know he made as much money in those few days as he did all season, but getting just one AB is priceless (read: far more valuable than $15,000). It's really sad how that was handled. I hope he signs elsewhere. The Twins don't deserve him.
  5. For SS: Trade a 10-15 prospect or a vet at a position of need to Cardinals for Paul DeJong. Alternative is a 10-15 young prospect to Orioles for Ramon Urias. Sign Syndegaard for a one year pillow at $15 (I'm out if it goes higher). I also love Pineda, Kikuchi, and/or Jon Gray on this roster. I'm keeping Ober, Dobnak, and Ryan, in the rotation (either AAA or MLB). If we are going to a retool year instead of a compete year, keep the FA SP to two. Veterans just clog the roster, preventing all our AAA SP prospects from getting valuable innings in this situation. I'm fine with BP FAs, but not spending more than $4mil on any one guy. I'd rather trade corner OF/IF/2B depth for 25yr old failed SPs.
  6. Unless this changed in the past couple days, he is still on the Red Sox roster and cheering from the dugout. And you are correct that he is ineligible to play on the playoffs as he was waived and acquired on the 3rd of September. Angels kind of did him dirty. For the good of the player (which can help with FA signings), they should have kept him or waived him a few days earlier.
  7. If it is for a one-year or even a sub-$20mil multiyear deal, this would be the best outcome. There is enough data and case studies out there now that we know the home/road splits for Rockies batters mean nothing when they put on a new uni. Almost every hitter, after leaving, plays to their cumulative numbers. Vacillating between 5000 feet and 500 feet every few days makes adjusting to pitch movement almost impossible. You can dig into the data and see that every consecutive game that is played at home or on the road sees offensive numbers of Rockies batters improve. On the flip side, most hitters from visiting teams do not see much of an increase in OPS in Colorado because of the short adjustment period. This has lead to the Rockies having a top 5 home record in MLB over the last half dozen years despite having a losing record overall.
  8. @TopGunn#22, I love you fella. Thank you for taking my comment in the spirit it was intended. I'm so used to internet names freaking out at suggesting an opposing viewpoint. I am ambivalent to trading vs signing Buxton. It's like voting between a Democrat or a Republican. The path that we take is not likely to change the overall trajectory of the institution, but I certainly have the path that would bring me more temporary happiness, even if the end result is worse. Again, thank you for being a good human being behind your keyboard.
  9. One thing that seems to be more than a strategy, but really an edict: don't acquire SP after their 31st birthday. The only exception to this rule on either roster is Garrett Richards, who was quickly moved to the pen once June 2nd rolled around. Other than Richards, every SP was acquired before they turned 31. Some guys are older, such as Johnny Cueto and Chris Sale, but they were all acquired prior to their 31st birthday. Some were barrel scraper acquisitions, such as Martin Perez and Anthony DiSclefani, some were superstars, such as Cueto and Sale, and some were mid-level SP such as Kevin Gaussman and Nathan Eovaldi. This Twins FO has acquired three SP that were under 31, Odo, Pineda, and Martin Perez. I would argue that two of those three have been the best SP acquisitions this FO has made to date. This seems like an emulatable and repeatable strategy. Let's see if Falvine thinks so too.
  10. I find it difficult to believe that you read the article that @Tom Froemming wrote, then come out of the gate firing with SIGN BUXTON! That is the complete opposite of the strategy the Red Sox employed with their big star to get them big into WS contention. If we are to learn anything about how the Red Sox (the Giants have not been faced with this dilemma recently) would approach the Buxton situation for the betterment of their teams competitiveness, it would be to trade Buxton this offseason. That is a big bright neon lights kinda obvious, if you think emulating the Red Sox is a good idea. Yes, it's going to be extremely unpopular, but if the Twins can acquire a package in return for Buxton that is similar to what the Sox got for Betts, it will make the Twins a more competitive team than keeping him. It would also bum me out until the Twins started winning again, but if 2023 sees a dramatic turnaround, it's worth it. Also, neither of these teams has any high end bullpen talent. They both basically have no strengths, but also no weaknesses, when it comes to the pen. Every guy falls somewhere between 3.20 and 4.20 ERA talent. So another lesson is to sign more Robles-like guys and less Hendricks-like guys. Sorry to rag on you, but you essentially say "screw it" to the Red Sox/Giants strategy to team building and I'd rather use this thread to discuss what some common, obvious strategies are that these two teams used to build contenders. It's not that I disagree with you, but it seems to miss the point of the original article.
  11. The 10th inning total team meltdown against the A's is number 1 with a bullet. I think this one has to be number 2. That was a tough first series watching Baddoo rip up Twins pitching and playing good D. The other 3 Colome blown saves in April round out the top 5 for me. I recall the Astudillo-Mercedes moment with fondness. That was an actual fun moment in a season of woe. Also, watching Simmons play defense for a season was immensely enjoyable. So many subtle things that he does that very few other shortstops do. He may not have the physical skills to be a perennial gold glove winner, but his awareness on the field will keep him in perennial contention for a few more years. It's a treat to watch.
  12. 4 of those 5 teams were in the Top 10 in average velo. It's not throwing a high quantity of fastballs that matters. It's throwing high velo when you do throw fastballs that matters. High velo on the fastball means high velo on most breaking pitches. High velo on those breaking pitches means harder to barrel or even swing-and-miss.
  13. Adding Celestino to this list makes the Twins' 2023 season look very bullish...and 2022 rough but at least exciting.
  14. I would estimate that if the AL was just one big division, the White Sox would have finished 8th. They would have a hard time finishing above .500. Maybe they surprise and finish in 6th place. I really can't place them higher than that. They will be better the next couple years though. Every young team needs these seasons as they climb the ladder.
  15. There's a good chance Simmons will be one of the three finalists for the AL Gold Glove in 2021. He won't win it, but being a finalist in an age where metrics are used instead of the eye test means he was pretty rad on defense. I still think as a backup, short-side platoon SS, he would be an asset. His numbers against LHP are quite respectable, and with the glove, would make him a valuable asset when used correctly. I just think he's going to want to start somewhere.
  16. It's not that velo is the end-all, but it allows for a much larger margin of error when pitching. This is why it is important.
  17. Unquestionably. You don't drop 4/5 starters with that kind of owner friendly contract.
  18. The Twins need a backup/platoon RHB corner OF. Would you rather keep Garlick or Rooker to fill that roll? I think I'd prefer Rooker, but I could be swayed. That said, I'm not dropping both of them with no one on the roster to fill the role. I want Celestino getting daily reps in St. Paul, on call to fill a starter's role when when someone gets injured. He shouldn't be a bench player at this point.
  19. Recency Bias is a powerful drug. Not sure if you realize this, but Dobnak is just a few months older than Bailey Ober. Comparing their first 20 starts, Dobnak was a superior pitcher and at a younger age. I do think Ober will have the better MLB career going forward, but I would also say it's more of a coin flip than most of the Twins Daily community gives Dobnak credit for.
  20. @Danchat, I pretty much agree with all of this. I'd want to just leave a couple spots open for signings, so I'd leave off Garlick and Smeltzer. But if I were doing a full 40 from this list alone, I would be completely simpatico.
  21. From the article: And the Red Sox trading Babe Ruth wasn't as big of a mistake as it has been made out to be. (not comparing the players, just the transactions)
  22. Looking at this past offseason, a 1/$8 plus an option and buyout would probably do it. Let's say the buyout is $2 and the option is $10, and becomes guaranteed at 160 innings pitched.
  23. I cannot abide by the Freddy Peralta disrespect. The dude would arguably be the game 1 starter for the Braves, Giants, Rays, Red Sox, Astros, and maybe the Cardinals too...if Waino wasn't the sentimental tie-breaker pick.
  24. While it's only two years, Sean Manaea could be had, plus some. Throw in a Cole Sands or Matt Canterino and Frankie Montas. Trade Values seems to think Zac Gallen could be had for roughly the same package, but I suspect that is unreasonable. Ryan Yarborough. German Marquez. One of the 9 Marlins studs. Gotta shop the rebuilding squads for the most part... And the Marlins due to their depth. Deals could be made. I'm not saying Larnach as a standalone, but as a centerpiece.
  25. Agreed. The Twins need SP more than another LHB corner OFer and he can probably land a solid #3 with #2 upside, or include someone else of value to get more. That said, making trade value statements before a new CBA is in place is likely a fool's errand right now.
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